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effectively a test to measure the presence and also in some cases the number of whatevers being tested for - in this case antibodies
Basic form might just show presence or absence, but then by diluting down time and again and testing to see if you can still find them you get a measure of the concentration too.
Sounds like homeopathy
Nothing at all to do with homeopathy. Has nothing to do with the dose rates, it's an assay method
Example. Imagine you wanted to measure the intensity of blue paint, without using a spectrophotometer or similar.
Anyone can look at it and see it's blue paint.
Dilute it 50/50 with white. Is it still 'blue'?
Do it again, now it's 1/4 (or 4 in titer speak) - still blue?
Keep going - 8,16,32,64...... at what point is it no longer blue?
Now compare 2 blue paints, to see what their relative intensities are....and you have a means of comparing.
and before anyone complains - yes, I know - I also used blue paint in my bathroom in 2017 and despite cleaning the brush to within an inch of it's life time and again, every other paint I've used since is also slightly blue. It's an example, not a recommendation!!
Why isn't India on the red travel list? Huge new wave there and dangerous new dual variant strain which we've already got 77 cases of here. I've got no confidence in these absolute numpties in charge!
Why? Trade talks.
Why? Trade talks.
And/or lack of testicular fortitude.
Sounds like homeopathy
Can you explain your thought process here? As it didn't sound anything of the sort to me.
it's par for the course for that contributor
No, I'm sure it's just a complete lack of understanding.
It does make me wonder what other aspects of scientific understanding they miss though, to make such an obvious mis-statement. And also to not go and check it for themselves - if my thought was 'sounds like homeopathy' my next thought would be 'I don't think that's right, I'll go and check'
Too late. 77 cases of the India Double Mutant in the UK reported by Sky News.
Here we go again. Failure to redlist could cause another lockdown.
Can you explain your thought process here? As it didn’t sound anything of the sort to me.
I took it to be a joke about dilution, hadn't noticed the poster
I only watch the occaisonal Dr John Campbell vid regarding Covid these days, but I watched yesterday's one while winding down in bed. Very interesting (from my perspective) historical study regarding blood clot complications when adenovirus (which includes the OxAZ vaccine) was administered to mice intravenously.
Dr John suggesting vaccinators should include aspirating, pulling the vaccine syringe plunger head up to ensire they haven't put the needle in a blood vessel instead of the intended intramuscular injection into muscle. Apparently a very simple and standard practice with other drug administrations.
Too late. 77 cases of the India Double Mutant in the UK reported
I'll stay in my bunker then. ffs.
What makes it "double mutant" and how is that different to variants already present in the UK?
This is sobering, more than half of ICU patients in Brazil now under 40 and also significant infant mortality. I know it's a different country with different demographics and its own variant, but it's worth bearing in mind, particularly if your default assumption is that the vast majority of young people are covid proof.
The Brazilian variant is the reason I feel VERY uneasy when friends talk about possibly holidaying abroad this summer. Realistically, we're all staying put for this year, aren't we.
Realistically, we’re all staying put for this year, aren’t we.
You'd think it would be a no-brainer to give it a miss this year but there are at least two or three contributors to this thread with foreign holiday plans.
Reports from other places round the world at the moment "should" be very sobering in terms of international travel, the importance of suppressing transmission to reduce development of variants, and the importance of vaccination to reduce the severity of infection.
Still seems to be a lot of people with access to social media who disagree with my opinion.
“should” be very sobering
Unfortunately I don't think it is, I think they'll be a core of people who'll be up in arms over the next rise in cases demanding entry to costa brava. For them, Coronavirus is something that happens to other people.
Quite.
Anyway. AZ in my arm this afternoon. Promised second head has yet to materialize but I guess there's still time 😄
Coronavirus is something that happens to other people.
Part of the problem is it doesn't hit everyone the same. Getting hit by Covid and understanding the virus can be life changing as well as life threatening can give one perspective. People who have suffered badly from the isolation can go a bit de-mob happy they will have different perspective. Business owners, people who have lost their jobs another. If there was one threat with one set of consequences there might be a bit more consistency in response. What concerns me is if (when) we need to start upping the restrictions again. At some point there will be enough people who won't stomach it and we'll be a bit stuffed if a vaccine evading variant gets off and running.
The Indian Variant is being found in samples as far back as February
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/16/india-covid-variant-found-uk-specimens-taken-february
After much research Madame went along for her AZ jab this afternoon. She's back into the Covid soup at school in two weeks so the doctor's argument that AZ provides the quickest strongest response clinched it over waiting for Pfizer which would have been a few weeks later and slower to provide a high level of protection.
On the vaccine evading variant point. The variants might mutate enough to be contaigeous and transmitted by vaccinated people but the hope is that vaccinated people will still be protected from serious forms of illness. The idea that vaccines will have to be regularly modified to cover variants has been around from very early on in the Covid saga. Living with the vaccine and having annual flu type jabs has always been a possibility. Thankfully it's a disease that can be vaccinated against.
Hope all goes well Ed.
Thanks Kelvin, for you too, there are a lot of us in the AZ boat at present monitoring any symptoms and checking they aren't serious. I'd again like to thank Countzero for raising awareness on taking symptoms seriously and seeking treatment. We've been warned.
Sadly for this lot ^^^ IS the new normal. Until the press start to flag it up as not the right thing most people just won't care and it will continue.
The Brazilian variant is the reason I feel VERY uneasy when friends talk about possibly holidaying abroad this summer. Realistically, we’re all staying put for this year, aren’t we.
Judging by my Facebook feed pretty much all of my non-biking friends and their friends are planning to get away abroad this summer. They're mainly moaning about the cost of the flights - no cheap deals - and wanting to know about the Vaccine Passport situation. Some have even mentioned that a holiday only counts if you go on a plane...
I'm staying put here in the UK, I would feel terrible if I brought any new variant home with me.
Some have even mentioned that a holiday only counts if you go on a plane…
Yep, that does seem to be the case with some people. Is madness.
I’m staying put here in the UK, I would feel terrible if I brought any new variant home with me.
Likewise, and I'm sure our economy will benefit from this also.
Why would you expect anyone to follow sensible travel advice with Johnson delaying putting India on the red list, just so he can go for a photo op next week...
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1382818751410749441?s=19
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1382316137225027595?s=19
I can confirm that for me going for a 35km ride in the evening and getting cold on the way home was not a sensible thing to do after getting the first az jab in the afternoon. I ended up with uncontrollable shivering and no blood in hands or feet even after being back in the house for 30mins with a mountain spec down pullover on. Got halfway through a bowl of soup, started feeling a bit nauseous, and decided to hit the shower. That got me a little warmer and I retired to bed dressed in various merino layers. I woke up after about 30 mins feeling like I'd had a long sleep and started shedding layers about an hour after that. After getting home at about 9:15 I think I was back to normal operating temperature at about 1AM.
Not very pleasant. Steady away.
If anyone is interested then use Google translate for the French AZ blood clotting numbers up to 8/4 and some symptoms noted.
23 cases of which 8 deaths for 2.7 million doses. The recent cases concern over 55 year olds with an average age of 62.
Edit: Madame spent the afternoon in bed but is up again now after AZ yesterday.
Sounds like homeopathy
Actually not far off. As mentioned above, it's the number of dilutions of serum needed before loss of neutralising effect is achieved in growing virus in a dish. Since vaccines make all sorts of antibodies, there isn't really an assay for the number of milligrams present in your blood (there is for MONOclonal antibodies since they are all the same type - hence "clonal"). Instead there is one assay in "International Units" which is a bit of a benchmark of total amount of immunoglobulin, and then there is a "functional" assessment of how beefy those antibodies are at knocking down the target viral growth (in a dish) as one dilutes them.
As strains escape coverage, you lose neutralisation with fewer half dilutions. One could use much larger dilutions (homeopathy) but that would not have the sensitivity to see changes. But the principle is the same. Homeopathy, however, believes the antibodies would have MORE effect if you dilute them. That's not how pharmacology and the law of mass action works.
Apologies to @kimbers who does this stuff for real.
The most up to date variant data (as of today) is published by PHE here
It's worth a read. The most notable (Figure 8) is just how impressive S-gene target failures have replaced all others - essentially there is no difference other than a time lag from the SE to the rest of the country. One might hope that this B.1.1.7 strain is providing some "herd protection" from other invasive strains, despite the vaccination roll-out. All the other strains are really bumping along in the noise at the moment, although Figure 10 shows the SA variant had a modest peak in March. We shall see...
Apologies to kimbers who does this stuff for real.
Tbh, when im diluting a dna library down to picomolar concentration yet it still has millions of copies of a person/cancers genome, I'm still not sure I can get my head round it not being homeopathy
Avagadros number divided by a thousand million million is still a big number 😀
I was wondering how long it takes to get a reasonable level of protection after the first jab. I know 2 weeks is often quoted and a recent study in the US showed 80% protection after 2 weeks with Pfizer/Moderna
But.....given it takes around 5-7 days to develop symptoms and possibly a few days to get a test result does that mean if you work back you actually have 80% protection after a week or so?
No, don't confuse the how long it takes the immune system to produce antibodies, with how long it takes to show a positive test.
14-21 days to produce effective antibodies. Generally the longer timeframe is associated with the older population.
So if unlucky you could catch CV 20 days post vaccination, with symptoms/positive test not showing until 25 days.
I was wondering how long it takes to get a reasonable level of protection after the first jab.
14 days for protection. PHE analysis of population data is here:
Figure 1 shows your risk of COVID is increased for the first two weeks (>70yo) and Figure 2 is the SIREN study in Healthcare workers (so younger) and that shows protection at about 10 days. Risk compensation is a thing. Who knew? That or vaccination centres are cesspits of COVID transmission (not really).
A lot of the elderly come to my vaccinator centres on the bus or by taxi, so catching it on the day is a definite possibility.
Hopefully staff vaccination, daily LFT's, mask wearing, ventilation and less than 10 minutes on site per patient means centres are reasonably safe. ( I know you were joking, but just for info.)
Looking at that report it doesn’t look like they are compensating for the incubation period, so if you see a drop in infections at Jab+14 days the symptomatic illness it prevented you getting would have arose from an exposure on jab+7 days (given a 7 day incubation period). Is that not correct?
I might be wrong, but I thought that study was amongst daily tested HC workers, so no incubation period to symptoms required, as PCR tests pick up infection quite early. An expert may be able to confirm?
If you call 5-7 days quite early. Here in France we're advised to wait 5 days after a suspected contact before going for a test as it probably won't pick up an infection before that.
Elderly study is observational linking healthcare records to positive PCR tests. The younger study is in daily tested workers at the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford. The fact they show similar patterns is interesting. Of course some people may be incubating at time of vaccination and this could explain some of the bump. But it could also be risk compensation. Note it is ratio to unvaccinated based on records and the numbers are large. Being at or below 50% after a few weeks is a good thing since this is the minimum level for an approvable vaccine. Take that as a positive and remain cautious for a couple of weeks.
Sounds like homeopathy
Can you explain your thought process here? As it didn’t sound anything of the sort to me.
It was a joke...
Even independent thinkers can have a sense of humour.
Ah, the Edinburgh defence!
independent thinkers
Is that a joke as well? [that’s a joke]
To be honest, I’d assumed you were joking about the dilution/homeopathy thing anyway.
My default position is everyone refers to it as a joke… unlike Jeremy Corbyn, David Tredinnick and Tim Farron… (I picked examples from three parties to make it clear that homeopathy isn’t a party issue… the magic is supported by many very different MPs).
Wish me luck. Having arrived 20 mins early I'm sat outside the pharmacy killing time as I await my turn for a jab in the arm
Overheard in the shop this morning
"I'm not having that clotty shite one in me"
I missed the whole conversation, but the words pfizer and moderna were mentioned a few sentances afterwards.
Overweight and looked in her 50s, but from context, likely early to mid 40s. Either a hatred of self checkouts, or they were queuing for fags too.
“I’m not having that clotty shite one in me”
makes a change, early on in the vaccine process I had an old boy tell me he wanted the AZ one as he "didn't want that foreign one" (he meant the pfizer) .
I gave him the pfizer as that what we had. He shrugged and took it...
I'd put a note in my diary 10 weeks after my first jab to chase surgery if I'd not heard anything (as my invite came from there). They were great, no problem at all checking then.... oh... you appear to have fallen off the system. Just waiting for a call back to get it sorted.
They were VERY keen to get me in in the next two weeks. So much as I didn't want to bother anyone, quite glad I did now!
My wife's come across through her (unrelated) work an 80 year old, blind, disabled woman who has not been vaccinated. The woman phoned her GP practice and was apparently told that as she never leaves the house she's not at risk so doesn't need the vaccine, which is true but not helpful. She's too scared to sit in the garden and chat to her neighbours over the fence and hasn't been out at all for a year.
What should be the way of getting vaccinated in such a case? District nurse, GP visit?
Round our way, it would the GP to arrange - who does the vaccination may vary depending on the staff they have.
It’s not mandated for them to so, but GPs who are doing home vaccines are paid twice as much to provide them as clinic based vaccines (don’t get too excited though, it’s twice of a tiny amount).
It's perhaps a bit early to cry victory but it's now 11 days since vaccination with AZ and I haven't used my red inhaler for a week, and I'm just back from my first run without breathing difficulties since the week before the first confinement in March 2020.
I'm an occasional asthmatic. It's brought on by air pollution and some allergens. I'm naughty, I don't follow my doctors advice and only use my red inhaler when I feel the need, ie. very rarely. I don't get effort induced asthma unless I feel asthmatic before the effort. I did all my racing without inhalers, if I felt crap I didn't start or retired, just once ending up in the red cross tent. All that changed in March last year.
The first week of confinement coincided with the tree pollen start and I started to cough and wheeze, my asthma's back I thought . Madame was ill with what we now know were Covid symptoms. I just coughed with no other symptoms. I started with red inhaler but it didn't help much. I've been dependant on the red inhaler (and sometimes ventoline on top) for the last year and depite regular use have felt breathless swimming, running and biking and even skiing in pure air with no allergens.
Until four days after AZ. I woke up and instead of groping for my inhaler felt like groping for... . A week without the inhaler right in the middle of the tree pollen season and I can still breathe. Sure my eyes and nose are running, throat is irritated, ears itching, I've got hay fever, but my lungs are working.
Coincidence or vaccination? I'm inclined to think that AZ has given me my health back. Fingers crossed, I'll keep you all posted.
So last Friday a riding acquaintance I follow on Strava was posting pics of how his commute home from work had been via the pub and had taken several hours.
This morning he's complained of feeling fluey on his commute in but has tested negative on a lateral flow test.
He's old enough to have been offered a vaccine but suspect he's the type who is "too busy" to have it. I really hope that it is just man flu he's passing on to his colleagues
Well then it is your civic duty to report him for the common good.
I work with vulnerable adults and one of them has fallen in with a bad lot (fundamentalists). He now thinks the vaccine is tested on and/or contains aborted foetus's. Can anyone point me it the direction of some credible sources of information- even just a rough page number in here would get me started.
He's right though
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/vatican-says-getting-covid-vaccine-morally-acceptable
(sort of)
better explanation (edit)
https://fullfact.org/online/foetal-cells-covid-vaccine/
Thats a good start, thanks. If he decides to refuse the vaccine on that basis then that's fair enough I suppose, he's being told more than that though.
There are no actual foetal cells in the vaccine. The production process uses cells which were not taken from an aborted foetus, but are part of a cell line grown in the lab and distantly derived from a single aborted foetus in the 1970s.
If you are opposed to any science developed using foetal tissue, then OK, but foetal tissue is not being harvested now and put into the vaccine, or used in its manufacture.
I suppose my next question then is how do I convey it?
It's all stuff I 'know' but I haven't got any primary evidence so I'm just a random with a theory- just like the fundamentalists, at least as far as he's concerned.
And as interesting as the full fact link is, and as much as I appreciate Martin putting it so clearly, if he told me he'd 'done his research on the internet' I'd have discounted it, so where does the difference lie?
It's a good question and one I no longer really have the answer to.
I mean, I do, it's reliability, accuracy, integrity, etc., of the sources where the information is coming from. As a scientist, peer review and referees of publications and trust in the scientists that write them. Versus someone with an opinion and internet connection. To me the balance is clear, but if you are of that persuasion, want to believe that we are being misled, lost trust in 'the authorities' (haven't we all, but the Gov does not control scientists) or just being contrary for shits and giggles it's dead easy to just throw in the 'well of course you'd say that' or 'that's what they want you to believe' card which in the end is hard to counter. Because it's a belief and in those minds belief trumps evidence.
So you go round and round, where you have to not only prove everything you say but also do their work and disprove their theory, only to have it ignored anyway. Which frankly half the time is all they're after anyway, to waste your time.
Just dipping my toes in the thread again.
As per a rule I set myself, it's to separate facts (informed opinions at least) from the noise of other sources out there.
How are we feeling about the Indian Variant?
To early to say?
As always, thanks guys and I hope you and yours are doing ok at the mo.
To early to say?
Yes.
Having said that, put in controls and then learn more… not the other way around.
How are we feeling about the Indian Variant?
To early to say?
I'm surprised we don't know more about its ability to evade vaccines, or not, by now. I'll guess we'll find out soon enough.
I think we've got about 200 cases here currently, up from 77 (detected). I'd expect that to continue rising quickly if it has the ability to to evade vaccines, or to outcompete 'our' variant in the unvaccinated.
I've not checked but I assume the Kent variant is chesney hawks here by now? Again I feel myself hoping our variant is a world beater.
Indian variant is rapidly becoming the only variant there I think.
How are we feeling about the Indian Variant?
To early to say?
I wouldn’t worry too much about that. Looks like out of 100M People who had the AZ jab in India only 17K got infected, which is pretty incredible. Also India has a huge population so the number of deaths/Million is still around 14X less than in the U.K.
https://twitter.com/stevebrown2856/status/1384829869180215298
Most reports saying the number of cases/deaths in India is hugely under reported. I dread to think what the real numbers are.
We need to hope the vaccines prevent hospitalisation/death in the new variants until boosters arrive later this year.
I'm still amazed India got off so lightly first time.
Cardiff is now programming in the under 30's. My partner and I both had our letters yesterday, both of us are 29 with no pre-existing conditions. What a relief to know we're not being passed over as an age group.
My colleagues in Pune, India are all very scared. It's a major centre of this outbreak - 7 day average of new cases is a quarter of a million in a population of just over 3 million.
Whether it will be a problem in the UK is a different matter - let's hope not.
I’m still amazed India got off so lightly first time.
I seem to recall that when the virus first hit developing nations there was talk that their relatively young population (by average age) meant that there were fewer old and vulnerable people to be affected, compared to the older population in Western countries that got badly hit. Sorry that reads really harsh but couldn't think of a better way to phrase it.
Seems that some of the newer variants affect the younger age groups more? Hopefully the rapid vaccine rollout here will mean that if this is the case, then more will be protected from serious illness.
I'm encouraged that no one seems to be saying that these variants completely evades the vaccine, they just seem to be a little less effective. So far.
There must be lots of mutations (mistakes in replication) that just wither as they affect the ability to transmit.
Several experts I’ve read say that there is only so much mutation at key sites can happen whilst maintaining the ability to transmit.
Vaccines produce a broad spectrum of antibodies, B & T cells, so protection against most strains at a lower level is expected/hoped for.
As long as we can keep hospitals empty & prevent deaths until modified vaccines arrive, we are doing well.
Thanks for the input guys, seems there is still reason to hope that the vaccines have a good effect against the variant.
Appalling to see what's happening in India. I went hosteling there twice and if you have no money there, there is no safely nets whatsoever, even in normal times. Incredibly sad to witness. I love India and its people, it's heartbreaking to watch the country go through this.
Just a quick question for those in the know, will I be offered a Corona Virus Vaccine if I don’t have a GP? Haven’t had one for years...like 15... If I try and enter my NHS no. on the booking website it says it can’t access my vaccination records so can’t book a vaccine slot but by rights I’m still too young to be booking just yet. Ta
Get registered with a GP straightaway. They are still the gatekeepers for so much that you might need.
I’d put a note in my diary 10 weeks after my first jab to chase surgery if I’d not heard anything (as my invite came from there). They were great, no problem at all checking then…. oh… you appear to have fallen off the system. Just waiting for a call back to get it sorted.
They were VERY keen to get me in in the next two weeks. So much as I didn’t want to bother anyone, quite glad I did now!
I'm at 10 weeks also and was assumong I'd be contacted for my 2nd jab. After reading your post, I e-mailed the surgery and got an appointment next week. Don't know if I'd fallen off the list but it was good to check, and I'm happy to have the appointment.
Anecdotally at my centre, AZ patients coming back at 10 weeks, Pfizer closer to 12 which I assume is due to supply issues.
Just retried the NHS booking service (44 3/4). Offered me a jab for Saturday but booked one for late Sunday. If I’m going to feel rough, I’m doing it on work time...