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NHS Deaths per 100k from peak - 1st Wave vs most recent wave
Most recent wave - how deaths vs new cases vs hospital admissions are tracking
The percentage of covid deaths from people aged over 70 as a percentage of total.
Apologies if posted previously but it does frustrate that the OU/AZ vaccine is being sold for a song whilst others fill their boots and prepare for the future. Of course there was/still is a solid justification for minimal/at cost production for poorer nations/Covax.
But despite having funded the OU and Jenner research over many, many years we will not see the benefit in terms of £bn's funding in the UK for:
- further research in to new covid strains
- research in to other drugs/treatments e.g. long covid, ......
- the big hope that was The Francis Crick Institute
- supporting the rebuilding the UK's vaccine/medicines production capacity
especially as the UK now has staggering debts and is starting to line up some very painful funding cuts.
Naive?
Certainly very/beyond frustrating.
Galling.
Just wanting to get this off my chest since last summer 😒
I’m 56 and Mrs DB 54 – not a sniff of a vaccination letter, locally looks like Grampian Health are well behind the curve and we have a big spike in local cases. Now they’re saying mid-April to be notified, so might not get it before the end of the month.
Are you Aberdeenshire or Moray? Either way, vaccine delivery seems to be about average. Of course, they're now having to concentrate on 2nd doses a lot more so 1st dose rate is falling.
But despite having funded the OU
and Jenner research over many, many years we will not see the benefit in terms of £bn’s funding in the UK for:
– further research in to new covid strains
– research in to other drugs/treatments e.g. long covid, ……
– the big hope that was The Francis Crick Institute
– supporting the rebuilding the UK’s vaccine/medicines production capacityespecially as the UK now has staggering debts and is starting to line up some very painful funding cuts.
First off, you mean Oxford rather than OU? (OU is usually the Open University)
AZ also received over $1bn in forward funding from the American government
J&J also seelling at cost
AZ have also said they'll only sell at cost as long as pandemic lasts (AZ Brazil contract said they may increase pieces from July 21)
Covid is here to stay and its excellent that they sold out at cost, especially for poorer nations, but AZ will expect a return eventually
I'm massively confused by your comments on the Crick institute, what where you hoping for?? It's a hugely successful research institute, primarily focused on Cancer, tho that's a funding bias issue really.
EU Funding invested in the technology Biontech vaccine uses, and again into the vaccine development last summer.
The Pfizer vaccine that gave the UK & Israel it's headstart in vaccination exists because of EU & German funding (hence why germans are so pissed)
I think you are completely misunderstanding how science investment works
The UK has hugely underfunded scientific research (1.5% GDP) relative to other countries for years, (well below EU - 2.2% & USA -2.7% ) UK gov has let EU horizon fund 20% of UK funding, where we were biggest net recipients in EU
We did well to invest early in covid vaccines manufacturer but, the fact that Oxford vaccine worked was luck to an extent, the EU bet heavily on the vaccine being developed by the French government funded Pasteur institute (possibly for political reasons, tho it was the frontrunner at one point)
Vaccine development is a lottery in some respects it could easily have been the Ox vaccine that failed & Pasteur/Sanofi that worked (tho UK had preliminary booked those doses too)
The UK has been coasting on its science investment for years, indeed letting the EU take up the slack
Johnsons recently announced cuts to UKRIs look to mean its only going to get worse soon
Also the jenner institute was closed a few years ago, the Jenner Vaccine Foundation is now charity funded
^ some useful points there, thank you.
The UK has hugely underfunded scientific research (1.5% GDP) relative to other countries for years, (well below EU – 2.2% & USA -2.7% ) UK gov has let EU horizon fund 20% of UK funding, where we were biggest net recipients in EU
and the potential £bn’s from OU/AZ wouldn’t have helped fill the up and coming gaps in funding gaps in medical research, manufacturing capacity, .....
Not really, our funding gap/economic hit is waaaay bigger than any vaccine profits, I doubt they'd dent it
AZ have done a great thing offering it at cist, but as I said they plan to raise prices once pandemic is over, it will be a cash cow for them getting your annual covid jab (soirrot is a savvy CEO & has tyrned AZ around)
I'm not even sure how much world have gone back to Oxford? The majority will go to AZ, which is an Anglo- Swedish company
This is their first vaccine & I assume they will be moving more into vaccines if the back of this
But you don't invest in science & research just for immediate cashback
The paybacks are bigger than that, in this case being able to open up economy sooner dwarfs vaccine income
Saw the value of £14.5bn put on this recently and, perhaps naively, thought it would go a long way to help future UK medical research/production capacity. From the above post, it would appear not.
AZ Vaccine - was it really worth it?
Exactly AZs profits will be there's
Not the UK governments
AZ have been unfairly treated considering all they've done, but their trials didn't go smoothly, dosing errors and messing up age groups in their trials + announcing results by Press conference rather than published data haven't helped their case.
Even if its their first vaccine, its hardly their first drug trial, its not even their first biological - they make antibody drugs for cancer - so they really should have that part covered, and been aware that yields from biologicals are not guaranteed
I hadn’t appreciated that a drug developer and a manufacturer were restricted to contracts that either said not for profit or all profit to the manufacturer only.
Thought J M Barrie, to name but one, and many many others had appreciated that great medical benefit can be derived from lots of small amounts of money rolled up in to a larger sum ....
UDL has been noticeably quiet recently, wonder what they’re plotting?
Hopefully busy in constructive negotiations with the UK and others on the way forwards 🤞
The initial ox/az trials were initiated and run by the University which is potentially why there were some challenges with age group representation.
Yeah I assume they were recruiting younger age groups, before higher risk older patients, I think every doctor I know was part of one trial or another.
I hadn’t appreciated that a drug developer and a manufacturer were restricted to contracts that either said not for profit or all profit to the manufacturer only.
I'm sure Ox will get some royalties on the vaccine when the non profit cap is lifted, but that's not going to change future funding of research, that has to come from government policy
And even then, what's the covid bill so far? £40bn on Test & trace, £100bn furlough, £12bn on PPE etc, etc,.... Vaccine sales won't effect that much.!
and the potential £bn’s from OU/AZ wouldn’t have helped fill the up and coming gaps in funding gaps in medical research, manufacturing capacity, …..
That’s not really how it works. Academia and charities may fund original research, but when it comes to delivering medicines, society has decided that it is the private sector that does this best. Oxford set up and ran some relatively small vaccine trials that were deemed adequate by the U.K. and EMA but not even considered suitable for approval for the US (too small and no elderly, no placebo in Brazil...).
Instead licensing of IP to pharma is the normal route. With royalties paid in return. You might like to look at the history of adalimumab (Humira) which became the worlds best selling drug. This was licensed from the MRC and they received significant returns and eventually settled on a lump sum for future royalties. The university failed to patent monoclonal antibodies, which was a significant error financially.
Oxford insisted on certain conditions for license. Personally I think another manufacturer with an established track record in production of vaccines would have been a better call (disclaimer I work for GSK but not in vaccines), and they almost went to Merck. The adenovirus technology is now mature and is exactly the same in the J&J vaccine.
Vaccines are not normally a huge earner (high volumes and low margins), but the high usage for a first wave for this new pathogen will see significant returns for Pfizer, Moderna and eventually Novovax (who have never delivered a product). Price is largely predicated on past subsidy by governments for the trials (Operation Warp Speed was really pay up front and at risk and Pfizer didn’t take the money so can charge more now). Then In a few years things will settle down. And AZ will charge market rate for markets that will bare the cost. Also prices are not the same in every market. The West hugely subsidises costs to developing nations in vaccines and medicines. Which is no bad thing. In fact the US market subsidises access to Europe.
^ that’s how it works, OK, but couldn’t it have been different? Did OU get it right? Can it be changed .. probably too late now.
Other things did change significantly in these challenging times, lockdowns, significant testing regime, furlough, the vaccine task force, perhaps even vaccine passports, ....
Not going to comment on Track & Trace, PPE procurement, ...
Still think £14.5bn is a substantial sum of money representing a considerable lost investment in uk medical research/vaccine production facilities.
Anyway, think that ship has sailed.
The blood clot story just keeps on running. Is this just the press, or are we going to have to stop using the AZ jab? What are the likely factors increasing risks in younger women?
(Ive had 2 doses of AZ)
^ or target the OU/AZ vaccine to/away from certain groups?
The blood clot story just keeps on running. Is this just the press, or are we going to have to stop using the AZ jab? What are the likely factors increasing risks in younger women?
(Ive had 2 doses of AZ)
The press are running the stories as they appeal to their AntiVaxx readers and the sceptics so it's stirring things up. At the end of the day every single medicine/vaccine/drug has side-effects, it's up to us to decide whether the risks of those appearing in patients is worth it or not. If it was dangerous and causing widespread blood clot issues then that would be showing up in the general population by now but it isn't, just a few cases per million doses given. They are right to make sure it is being monitored closely, which the medical profession will be doing anyway, but they are adding a lot of unnecessary and unhelpful hyperbole to the story right now.
Thats kind of where Im at. We had a conversation at home last night about this, and how the risks/numbers for common drugs such as paracetamol and the pill just aren't talked about.
If you have a look at the mhra yellow card summaries (yellow card is the side effect reporting mechanism) as of last week there were ~420 deaths following the az vaccine (note not attributed to the vaccine but soon after having it, and ~280 from the pfizer one.
That is in total not from that week.
Hardly earth shaking numbers considering the total vaccinations given.
The summary breaks down the adverse events more that just fatalities too
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions
^ or target the OU/AZ vaccine to/away from certain groups?
Apologies, post withdrawn as beyond my competence level.
So far this morning I've had to suffer through:
* Masks contain toxic chemicals and are poisoning everyone who uses them.
* Covid vaccination is pointless because we're still under lockdown.
* The company health insurance won't cover us if the vaccination has side-effects down the road.
* Antibodies from the original bat-flavoured variant of Covid-19 are better than those from the vaccine.
* Human intervention strategies have zero effect on the spread.
* Expecting people to take a "phase 3 trial drug" to protect others is "completely unreasonable".
* Covid-19 grows and spreads in gut bacteria, but the research is being covered up.
* Covid-19 is seasonal (*cough* Brazil *cough*).
I'm so tempted to argue but know I'd just end up being buried under a deluge of copy-and-paste stats and paragraphs from one of the millions of mad websites run by crackpots. And saying something I might regret which is maybe the bigger problem. 🤣
So far this morning I’ve had to suffer through:
I know how you feel - Derbyshire County Council is running a good FB campaign about fake info, but it attracts the nutters like shit attracts flies. If you challenge their links to false info, their supporters pile in with more links to false info, and then it's just 5 minutes "report post", "report post"....
Good lord, I just took a look at Derbyshire CC on Facebook, theres some pretty fundamental misunderstandings of.... well.... pretty much everything.
not specifically to Covid; I used to work in sunscreen chemicals. And we used to say - anyone with an opinion and an internet connection can do great harm to the public understanding, as i/ the public have little to no comprehension of the validity of sources, and take all info on the same merits; ii/ you can't argue against with the data and facts because 'well you would say that, wouldn't you'
So you can pretty well say whatever you want, based on a spurious / misunderstood interpretation that suits your ends and rebuff any challenge by claiming that it's propaganda or a cover up or whatever.
This blood clot thing. Yes, it needs looking at and understanding. But by my reckoning, and based on the numbers on the news sites
18,100,000 have had the AZ vaccine
18,099,970 didn't get any blood clots
and 18,099,993 haven't died as a result of blood clots.
Did OU get it right?
Well you didn't get it right, it's Ox/Az not OU.
FYI.
Good lord, I just took a look at Derbyshire CC on Facebook, theres some pretty fundamental misunderstandings of…. well…. pretty much everything.
Wait till they start posting about gritting when it gets colder next week.....
Derbyshire CC on Facebook, theres some pretty fundamental misunderstandings of…. well…. pretty much everything.
Derbyshire born Derbyshire bred,
Strong in arm, thick in 'ead.
Apologies to the more enlightened inhabitants of my favourite neighbouring county.
@flaperon... I still haven’t come to terms with being told that the vaccine science isn’t ‘gold standard’ in the same message as being enjoined to ‘look after my own health and keep my body alkaline’. I just don’t know where to begin to start...
I’m so tempted to argue but know I’d just end up being buried under a deluge of copy-and-paste stats and paragraphs from one of the millions of mad websites run by crackpots. And saying something I might regret which is maybe the bigger problem. 🤣
There's a mildly astonishing story that just twelve people are responsible for two thirds of anti covid-vaccine propaganda - of course that, itself, may be misleading, but the BBC published it. It's astonishing how the internet has changed the world in just two decades:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56536390
This in the grand scheme of things is tiny, but I've decided stop shopping at our local fruit and veg shop (I've been using it for 20 years). The lady that runs this greengrocers hates wearing a mask and the visor is a nuisance and mucks up her hair. Her obese assistant has decided it's her 'right' not to have the vaccine (I can't argue with that). There isn't any hand sanitiser in our outside either.
They both serve 100's of customers a day many of whom are in the older age bracket.
I'm not the only one in our area who's come to this decision.
In some respects it's a shame Covid hasn't been more deadly and allowed Darwinianism to have a greater hold, except there would have been a hell of a lot more innocent collateral damage as well.
Getting in a car is much riskier than the vaccine, being obese has many more side effects. The public can not cope with real in you face threats so gloss over them but love a good scare story because deep down they know it's not likely to affect them.
love a good scare story because deep down they know it’s not likely to affect them.
Current research into the clotting with O/Az vaccine show unusually low blood platelet levels associated with the forming of clots in the cerebral venous sinuses.
That’s exactly what happened to my partner two weeks after she had her C19 vaccination.
https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/medicine/an-update-on-astrazeneca-and-blood-clots/
Concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine were raised when cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (blood clots that form in the brain’s venous sinuses) associated with thrombocytopenia (low platelet count) were recorded in Europe last week.
The German-led research group discovered that the AstraZeneca jab might lead to the formation of antibodies against platelet antigens as part of the inflammatory reaction and immune stimulation. Those antibodies destroy the platelets. But at the same time, they induce a massive platelet activation that causes severe thrombosis.
“Even though you’ve got a low platelet count, which is normally associated with bleeding, the patient gets severe and aggressive thrombosis,” explains Professor Paul Monagle, a haematologist at the University of Melbourne.
This phenomenon is sometimes observed in people who take heparin – a blood thinner – to control blood clotting. “Normally, heparin-induced thrombocytopenia occurs when patients are exposed to heparin,” says Monagle. He says that about 5% of adults on heparin develop antibodies against the platelet factor 4 (PF4): a protein on the platelet’s surface.
The researchers investigated 13 cases of cerebral vein thrombosis that occurred 4–16 days after vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine in 12 women and one man, aged between 20 and 63. None of them was taking heparin or other anticoagulants.
Given the immunological genesis of this “vaccine-induced prothrombotic immune thrombocytopenia” (VIPIT), the researchers suggested that patients with a history of thrombosis might not be at increased risk of suffering this rare vaccine complication.
Although the latest data indicate that the condition may be less rare than previously thought, the incidence remains at about one case every 100,000–200,000 doses. Rare enough not to be caught in clinical trials, which included a total of about 40,000 participants.
CountZero - I am so very sorry to hear this news.
Big virtual hugs.
bunnyhop x
The blood clot story just keeps on running. Is this just the press, or are we going to have to stop using the AZ jab? What are the likely factors increasing risks in younger women?
I don't know anything about increased risk to younger women from the vaccine but apparently the pill and pregnancy both increase the risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis.
As I understand it, the risk of clots from the pill is greater than the incidence of clots from the AZ vaccine?
Tragic for the rare individuals affected, but needs keeping in perspective.
I'm sorry to see that CZ, when I saw your post about your partners death that was actually my first thought, but didn't want to say anything.
Incredibly tough going for you and family, age about it being kept in perspective vs benefit of vaccination, but terrible for you.
What do we think the likely hood is that they have got the numbers of people suffering blood clots from the az vaccine wrong?
I'm a pretty rational/logical person, but I personally know one person who has suffered a blood clot after having the vaccine (they are fine). I know that someone will have to know someone who has suffered a blood clot after the vaccine, but it seems to me that it's more likely their numbers are wrong than the likely hood of me knowing one of the 30 in 18 million that have had a clot after the vaccine.
but it seems to me that it’s more likely their numbers are wrong
Or that you just happen to know one of the registered events.
Or that you just happen to know one of the registered events.
I get that, and I know someone has to know one of the 30 that have had a clot, just seems very surprising that's its me.
Might buy a lottery ticket for the first time.
Depends a bit on what sort of clot your friend has experienced.
The clotting events that they're specifically looking for are quite unusual - they relate to antibody production that leads to platelet activation (most commonly associated with heparins). "just" a DVT or similar is not the same thing (and much more common in normal life)
I know someone has to know one of the 30 that have had a clot, just seems very surprising that’s its me.
For balance, I don't know anyone that's had a blood clot after the jab - hope that helps!
Going back a few weeks when France and other countires had put the AZ vaccine on hold I pointed out the disparity between the reported number of cases of clotting in the UK when millions of doses had been used and in the rest of Europe where as many cases had been reported from a tiny fraction of the doses. Two bad cases in staff in one hospital makes the "less dangerous than the contraceptive pill" argument ring false and leads me to question the X/100 000 number above.
There have been enough cases in Europe for authorities to identify the age groups most vulnerable to clotting and exclude them from AZ use.
Why would someone like Madame accept the AZ vaccine? She's 57 and is convinced she had Covid last March with classic but mild symptoms. Better to wait a few weeks for an alternative vaccine if offered AZ it seems to her. As a male who's a bit older I'd still accept AZ.
My sincere condolences to you, Countzero. And thank you for reporting a painful event with sober dignity.
As I’ve reported back in the thread my mums mate is one of the 30 who’s had platelet issues, back in the hospital yesterday for the weekend as her platelet count was back down to below 20000/ml so more iv platelet infusions along with plasma/vit k steroids and other stuff beginning with A-something or other and they were doing a brain scan earlier as she’s been getting severe headaches, not heard from mum as to how that went but fingers crossed she’s ok, I’ll find out later
As an aside my ms consultant called me to see how I was getting on and he’s decided to bring me in for a scan on Monday along with blood work as I’ve also been suffering with hellish headaches on one side of my head that make my right eye twitch along with severe joint aches and a constant feeling of intense burning then freezing in my lower legs, it’s all a bit complicated as I also have secondary progressive multiple sclerosis which can raise such issues as aches and weird sensations but never debilitating headaches nor the draining lethargy as I’ve had over the last 6weeks since receiving the az vaccine.
Let’s hope it’s just my spms playing up
I'm assuming that the thinking is that the owner will manage distancing in the locations on the right, but there's less control on the one on the left? Though theatres and cinemas may disprove my theory.
I said a while back that international travel, festivals and other ticketed events are the only places it makes any practical sense. No chance of it applying to anything like pubs or shops.
Somafunk, hope the check ups don’t show up anything new for you. Crossing everything.
If as a nation we've reached "herd immunity" levels then you don't need vaccine passports for Covid-19 any more than you need it for any other virus.
And if you haven't, then a vaccine passport isn't much use - I might have been vaccinated but that doesn't mean I'm not contagious and can't be infected if there are enough unvaccinated people in the same tightly packed nightclub.
Seems more likely that vaccine passports are what you might do if you were worried about new variants coming and wreaking havoc with your vaccination program and needed some publicity stunt to distract people while you tried to figure out a solution.
Seems more likely that vaccine passports are what you might do if you were worried about new variants coming and wreaking havoc with your vaccination program and needed some publicity stunt to distract people while you tried to figure out a solution.
Except there isn't a solution other than to tweak your vaccine
No chance of it applying to anything like pubs or shops.
If I have a choice between a pub that insists on everyone either having a vaccination or testing negative, and one that doesn't, I'm going in the first one.
while i respect your personal choice flaperon, im strongly against it being imposed on the whole population
but im pretty sure that the roll out of a vaccine passport which clearly and openly favours the same demographic that 'everyone' has been working together for... will bring about significant divisions across the country
it was clear very early on that the vaccinations would stall significantly at the point where the 2nd dosers begin to queue patiently, however the line that has been drawn is somewhere in the 45-50 region, the same that folk who have arguably suffered the most significant consequences of societal closedown, physical lockdowns and long term isolation - how are they going to take it?
really i suspect that it will be an incredible success just like track and trace.
arguably
Is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
I think if Corbyn and IDS agree on something, then it's probably a bad idea.
I'm against any kind of vaccine passport except at country borders and then only when everybody has had the opportunity to get vaccinated. It's discrimination simple as and breaks rule number two where I live. It would currently discriminate against the younger members of the population who have already paid a heavy economic and social price for limiting deaths in another age group.
it was clear very early on that the vaccinations would stall significantly at the point where the 2nd dosers begin to queue patiently, however the line that has been drawn is somewhere in the 45-50 region
"Vaccine passport" is a misnomer. I actually said "vaccination or recent test". I wouldn't support any policy where it's "vaccination or no entry".
Certain media outlets are calling it a vaccine passport, but from What I can tell its more of a covid passport. Ie you meet one or more of the following
-vaccinated
-recent negative test
-covid antibodies from recent ish infection
I wonder how recent the negative test will need to be, will I need to get tested every other day until I get vaccinated if I want to go to somewhere that requires a covid passport?
If I have a choice between a pub that insists on everyone either having a vaccination or testing negative, and one that doesn’t, I’m going in the first one.
I bet you the second pub will do better than the first financially if it was rolled out on the 17th May.
I bet you the second pub will do better than the first financially if it was rolled out on the 17th May.
Why's that?
Why’s that?
Perhaps because the second pub people still take infection precautions rather than blithely assuming that their vaccine protects then from SA or Brazilian or whatever variants.
Certain media outlets are calling it a vaccine passport, but from What I can tell its more of a covid passport. Ie you meet one or more of the following
-vaccinated
-recent negative test
-covid antibodies from recent ish infection
As ever, a catchy name, media catering for the hard of thinking and everyone wanting to either batter this crappy government or desperate for normality to return at any cost, has blurred the facts.
It does put a lot more pressure on venue staff to enforce it though. Getting that vocal minority of the population to fo along with it will be a problem.
My missus is 46, bright and aligned with STW on most things pandemic related.
She is feeling concerned about the risks for U50 women with AZ & clots. Can someone point me to a sensible article on the subject that is readable to a non-science geek?
CZ I am so very sorry for your immense loss. I did some reading on possible mechanisms and there is little knowledge of the cause or the treatment really. Loss of platelets has been noted with other vaccines and heparin but this is academic. Just thinking of you and how awful.
My missus is 46, bright and aligned with STW on most things pandemic related.
She is feeling concerned about the risks for U50 women with AZ & clots. Can someone point me to a sensible article on the subject that is readable to a non-science geek?
I don't align with the general STW view but in terms of vaccination is the risk from the virus greater than the risk from the vaccine? The risk of death from clots related to the vaccine appears to be less than 1 in a million. https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation gives a useful indication of the risk covid poses to an individual.
Interesting that according to that calculator, having a previous fracture of wrist, hip or spine makes quite a difference. I wonder why that is? Perhaps it's a surrogate for bone density and nutrition? I fractured my spine a few years back, but that was due to a rather hard wallop from a Ford Focus - I'm not convinced that on an individual level that affects my risk greatly. Interesting that overall it shows up as a factor despite obvious confounds, but I guess it's much easier to measure than "is your bone density a bit crap?" or "how healthy is your diet?". Or maybe there's another mechanism altogether!?
Gribs - I agree with what youbsay, but she would like to look at some real evidence/analysis as she is worried. Her current thoughts are to still have it, but doesn't just want to dismiss the issue.
I was concerned about this when I got my appt, and I'm not a middle aged woman. I agonized about waiting, I'm low risk (low exposure mainly) to see what else had to come out. The more recent news does make me wonder further if there should be a direction towards the other vaccines for this particular demographic.
That said..... the risk is still low (turn the stats around and 30/18.1M with clots means 18,099,970/18,100,00 without)
From members of the Lancets Covid-19 Commission Taskforce on Public Health
Put simply, the game has changed, and a successful global rollout of current vaccines by itself is no longer a guarantee of victory.
Thanks @piemonster, very interesting. The scale of the ramp up is tremendous - 5 billion for all vaccines pre-COVID to 9.5 billion COVID vaccines alone. No wonder the ramp up is hard.
Put simply, the game has changed, and a successful global rollout of current vaccines by itself is no longer a guarantee of victory.
This has always been the case. We need to suppress the virus while we roll out the vaccines. Chile might be learning this the hard way.
This has always been the case. We need to suppress the virus while we roll out the vaccines. Chile might be learning this the hard way.
No it hasn't and it isn't - that's a failure to understand what that article says.
We're easing lockdown, if you hadn't noticed everyone is expecting a normal summer and Q3/4 2021.
Hospitalisations and mortality are the key indicators for population morbidity. SARS-CoV-2 infections will be with us an endemic seasonal infection, hopefully at not too serious levels. But this is still really just the first wave. Everyone needs some immunological protection from the potential morbidity from this first wave. I think the available vaccines provide that. Efficacy against symptoms is relatively poor for the SA variant for Ox/AZ and if introduced to the U.K. would likely give another wave of cases but a much smaller wave of hospitalisations.
But prior protection would limit the healthcare burden, as per influenza. Getting to that prior protection is the important thing.
The current debate is what size epidemic is likely as we unlock based on a much younger population of susceptibles. I think other countries like India have already shown us that, with much lower (but not zero) deaths in such a population.
On the other hand, the B.1.351 variant seems to reduce the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine against mild to moderate illness. We do not yet have clear evidence on whether it also reduces effectiveness against severe disease.
if you hadn’t noticed everyone is expecting a normal summer and Q3/4 2021
It's misplaced optimism, starting at the very top.
Not sure everyone is expecting a normal summer and Q3 and Q4 ?
I would say everyone is hoping for a normal summer and Q3 and Q4.
The Kent variant started in mid September, and had the UK locked down by mid December. 3 months is all it took. The first wave in Q1 2020 was about 2 months.
I hope that Government/PHE/Etc successfully monitor all the new variants and take early action to avoid another 3 month national lockdown.
I also hope to be able to make the most of the spring and summer.
Not sure everyone is expecting a normal summer and Q3 and Q4 ?
I am, im getting married in a few months and the idea of having more than 30 people would be nice.
Sounds like the EMA will be releasing an updated statement on the clotting issue today.
Not sure what the Guardian consider as "clear evidence". OK the SA trial is probably only 10% of the necessary trial size for the typical number of events (powered for a 50% efficacy), but that has already been ruled out by the trial. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214
Moderate COVID disease >21 days after prime and < 14 days after boost was 5/913 (placebo) 1/916 (vaccine) making an efficacy of 80.1% (CI -77.4 to 99.6%). OK, underpowered, but an 80% effect is not zero. This is from Table S6 in the appendix and is of course exploratory. But it's not "no evidence" and effects that big tend not to disappear as trials get bigger.
It's not all doom and gloom.
A next wave is predicted in July/August, either from lockdown measures being released or from a variant or both.
What seems in doubt is the severity of the next wave, with worst case scenario deemed to be as bad as the one we've just come out of with max NHS pressure, although with vaccines I thought the promise of this was now unlikely?
Whatever, this seems to be the way of life for the next few years.
who's predicting that, any sources to read?