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The expection is that a much lower % of people died of covid in March who had the vaccine.
In order to do this, it might need a team working across departments to pull all the raw data together and merge it. This team might not exist.
The NHS have the data and are already be looking at it.
I'm sure it'll be one of the top questions that Chris Whitty will want answering.
Its probably too soon to be publishing that data reliably.
Plus when you have 95%+ uptake its going to be hard to find a sample of people who havent had the vaccine, once you strip out the people who cant have it due to other health issues.
TiRed, I hate to put you on the spot, so feel free to decline. I wrote a long summary from my PoV on this French agency report on the AZ vaccine, and of the (my!) interpretation of the facts as I see them.
Don't waste time reading it if you don't have it.....
The report suggests a 0.66% chance of side effects, that's round numbers 7/1000.
Of these 7, 5/1000 will have mild / temporary effects* and 2/1000 = 1/500 will have a 'not mild/temporary' effects.
On one hand the 1/500 seems wrong, we aren't seeing the same level - what would you speculate these sorts of effects would be at this level?
* It's also occurred to me - they only saw mild/temporary effects at the rate of 5/1000 which is conversely way lower than we are - almost everyone I know that has had AZ vaccine has had some sort of 'mild-temporary' effect ranging from a sore arm through to a couple of days of flu like symptoms.
How come the French study seems to have way less occurrence of mild but way more of more than mild?
It HAS to be something to do with reporting / translation doesn't it, that discrepancy compared to UK experience isn't credible?
The on the spot bit - As one of the very reliable sources - does this FR info in any way put you off receiving the AZ vaccine?
She really doesn’t do irony does she
It's really curious unless she's just politicking. They didn't want to place their bet and get manufacturing facilities going before approvals were granted, so now she's suggesting that a third country that did, should compensate for that unwillingness to speculate, now that it's being looked at as a public health emergency rather than a procurement problem?
I guess we know what the EMA are going to say tomorrow then! 😄
They didn’t want to place their bet and get manufacturing facilities going before approvals were granted
There is absolutely some truth in this. But also remember where “our” initial vaccine supplies were produced when we approved the first vaccines early.
She really doesn’t do irony does she
Never underestimate the power of incompetence. See Von der Leyden's part in the G36 rifle fiasco - TLDR, she took H&K to court and lost utterly.
She's almost incompetent enough to be in the Johnson cabinet.
She's made a career of moving up before her mistakes catch up with her but when you're President of the European Commission there's nowhere else to go and COVID moves faster than normal politics so her incompetence is being exposed
How come the French study seems to have way less occurrence of mild but way more of more than mild?
Hyperchondria 😉 . Truth is gradation is a subjective thing for most AEs. One persons serious might be another moderate (there are fixed scales for objective measures and CTCAE cancer are often used for things like blood cell counts).
Adverse events due to immune activation are common (e.g., headache), severity may be variable and subjective. Very rare events are just that, very rare. COVID is, however, rather common. I will be rolling up my sleeve for the first vaccine on offer at Windsor Racecourse next week if there is a spot free.
No more 1st jabs once the over 50s are done? For a while anyway. Congratulations to those that got under the line...
I think it’s a case of vaccinate the leavers and sod the remainers...:-)
...the Government's Vaccines Task Force have now notified us that there will be a significant reduction in weekly supply available from manufacturers beginning in the week commencing 29 March, meaning volumes for first doses will be significantly
constrained. They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply.
From today, the supply constraint means vaccination centres and community pharmacy- led local vaccination services should close unfilled bookings from the week commencing 29 March and ensure no further appointments are uploaded to the National Booking System or Local Booking Systems from 1 to 30 April.
I think it’s a case of vaccinate the leavers and sod the remainers…:-)
Luckily they didn't get all us old fogey's names on the Remain marches! 🙂
Looks like the moves to throw Hancock under the bus for the botched response to COVID have started
Something something I told you that we and Europe didn’t have enough manufacturing capacity to do this anywhere like as quickly as people hoped.
I suspect the British government and the MHRA knew this and that whoever was quickest to the mark would get a head start and avoid some of the supply constraints.
Another sunny upside to Brexit - we’re now a vaccine competitor to Europe as well. Prisoners dilemma at play.
Materials will be the next thing to be embargoed.
I'm surprised about the news regarding a vaccination shortage - especially when a massive ramp-up was reported only a couple of days ago.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56407251
^^^^
is that the sound of a bus coming.
jam bo. Aged 44 & 3/4
"Let's not prioritise vaccinating public facing workers, let's stick to doing this strictly by age, it'll keep things simple and fast"
So 50 something work at home IT professionals get the jab this weekend, and 40 something front line workers dealing with the public for months already are looking at the summer for their first jab. Slow ****ing hand clap.
It’s almost as if South Park is prophetic Kelvin. (See latest episode)
So 50 something work at home IT professionals get the jab this weekend, and 40 something front line workers dealing with the public for months already are looking at the summer for their first jab. Slow **** hand clap.
How do you easily work out whos a legitimate front line key worker and who isn't? Take a big bank for example who I work for, the bank made available a standardised letter to prove that whoever wanted to use it had a means to prove their kid can go into school during lockdown as they are "key workers". The intention was only those in the branches and other key staff who had to go into the offices to keep the servers running for example to use it.
I can assure you that there was a vast amount of workers who have been sat at home like I have since March last year and still used that front line worker letter to get their kid into school despite being able to home school them.
You can't distinguish whos an actual front line worker right now by job title in all instances, it'd be a nightmare to admin as every company will be different on their staffing approaches, not all branch workers will be in the branches for example.
I understand the intention to prioritise actual current front line workers and agree that should be the approach but the admin would be nightmarish.
34 year old part time supermarket worker here.... I take it I'm not going to be getting even my first dose until after summer then?
I wouldn't mind if all the boomers were able to **** off abroad and leave some campsite spots available this summer....unlikely though! Oh well, maybe I'll hammer the overtime and spend it all on ski trips in 2022!
Would we be so far ahead if we were still in the EU? Ursula von der Leyen ****ed up the rollout of the EU vaccination also EU countries are sitting on the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Whoever is driving the bus heading for Hancock is playing a blinder
"NHS sources privately blamed the task force for the shortage. It was originally set up by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy but recently transferred to Matt Hancock’s Department of Health and Social Care"
I’m surprised about the news regarding a vaccination shortage – especially when a massive ramp-up was reported only a couple of days ago.
Isnt the shortage referring to a batches (that have yielded lower volumes) due for delivery after the batches that are part of the ramp up?
Either that or Westminster trying to pull a fast one following the EU threats. Or some other general incompetence.
Sounds like a months delay. Can't see this was ever not going to happen. They seemed to forget that the second doses were required at some point!
When is the j&j jab due, and more importantly is that going to be made in the UK? (As the eu appear intent on keeping supplies over there in future, can't blame them either)
What's going on right now does give me concern that when the second rollout of vaccine is needed next autumn we won't be in the enviable position we are now. The EU will have more than caught up in production capabilities. Tensions between the UK and EU are likely to be worse rather than better and i can't but help think the UK will then be looking at the EU with envy as they roll out the modified vaccines to combat the new variants.
Competing with the EU over vaccines, the actual materials to make the vaccine etc is going to be an unpleasant awakening.
By luck or design we got a good start with the vaccines and the fact that even in a dilapidated, underfunded state we have the NHS (God bless it) but I don't see us being as fortunate when the sleeping giant next door awakens...
When is the j&j jab due
I think it’ll be Novavax before J&J, U.K. manufacturing and higher efficacy.
The Moderna one is approved but not delivered yet?
Following the news conference today that 75% of the population aged 70 to 84 have antibodies, I thought I would look at what has happened to deaths for that age group.
I am struggling to see a material impact yet.
I will definitely get a vaccine still when I get offered it, but I really hope this trend improves over the coming weeks.
All very worrying. 2021 going the way of 2020.
Hyperchondria
*Sudden flashback to reading Le Malade Imaginaire for A level French*
Todays news is disappointing, but supply problems were always likely to be an issue. We are a long way in front of where we originally expected to be. I guess it may potentially delay the timetable for the relaxation of restrictions.
It's not great news, but some of our glasses are a lot less than half full on here tonight. And I'm saying that as someone who had to go out for a ride this evening to clear the "**** me life is all a pile of steaming shite" thought from my head.
Would we be so far ahead if we were still in the EU?
For one we would have had influence over the decisions being made and may well have been able to persuade the EU to get ahead of the game in terms of manufacturing and for another there wouldn't have been anything stopping us doing our own thing in parallel anyway. So yes, and the rest of the EU may have been better off too. :Shakes head:
So yes,
As unequivocally as that?
Really?
At best I reckon you could say maybe. Take your EU tinted glasses off for a second..
FYI I voted Remain, but I despair of the way the EU has failed in their vaccine program. They’ve let their citizens down.
Would we be so far ahead if we were still in the EU? Ursula von der Leyen **** up the rollout of the EU vaccination also EU countries are sitting on the AstraZeneca vaccine.
They haven’t helped themselves that’s for sure - some of the rhetoric of late has been particularly inflammatory..
Well, it seemed they spent more time being too bureaucratic and try getting solidarity between the countries rather than acquiring vaccines and get a rollout in place.
FYI I voted Remain, but I despair of the way the EU has failed in their vaccine program. They’ve let their citizens down
Same. I don't know why you have the impression I think otherwise and you haven't articulated a counter to my suggestion that if we were still involved we could have influenced things for the better, and/or still done our thing in parallel?
But you know - that's just my opinion...
All rather academic now though. Still reeling from the news of a fast approaching vaccination date to be likely put back 6 weeks at best tbh. Was only remarking to a workmate today that over the past few days the Omni calculator was predicting my earliest possible vaccination date was getting closer by a day each time (ie the date reducing, not just the passage of time) then to hear all new bookings cancelled for a month. ****. 😕
Still reeling from the news of a fast approaching vaccination date to be likely put back 6 weeks at best tbh
Its not great that’s for sure. I’m sat here wondering if I’ll be able to see my friend before she dies of Pancreatic cancer. She has had a few bad steps this last two weeks.
@piemonster - best of luck with that. I lost a good friend to Pancreatic cancer 5yrs ago 😭😭😭
It's an insidious bastard. I'd say if she's that close to the end go and visit anyway if you can. 🤞
The news this morning is stirring up a rhetoric based on 2nd injections. AZ and Pfizer denying any shortages, no issues in the supply chain yet...
It all makes it sound like the deference’s to the 2nd jab will cause the number of 1st jabs to slow, not entirely unexpected as we about 12 weeks in soon? But maybe the real issue is a failure to calculate the real difference in numbers. I wouldn’t put it past Hancock at all for trying to blame others for his own maths mistake.
I'm not seeing an issue... we're MILES ahead of the place people thought we'd be in, yet some still want to find fault.
AZ and Pfizer denying any shortages, no issues in the supply chain yet…
Semantics. No issue in UK supply, apparently this is extra supply from AZ India that is delayed.
I’m not seeing an issue… we’re MILES ahead of the place people thought we’d be in, yet some still want to find fault.
It may be that there is no fault, it's circumstances beyond control but it's naive to be looking at where we are and just using that as the measure.
To reduce to one of your other hobbies. We won the first leg of Big Cup 3-0. It's now half time in the second leg, we're 2-0 down and in danger of being outplayed. Of course at halftime Mr Klopp is trying to understand and deal with what's going wrong - not just sitting there and saying 'we're still ahead'
Its not great that’s for sure. I’m sat here wondering if I’ll be able to see my friend before she dies of Pancreatic cancer. She has had a few bad steps this last two weeks.
I'm a bit of a stickler for the rules, but even I would say go and see her anyway.
I’d say if she’s that close to the end go and visit anyway if you can.
Yes, this if you can. You can't make her any iller, maybe you'll get told off and even a £200 fine but against the big picture I'd take that. Take all the precautions you can of course for yourself and others.
I might have said different even 6 weeks ago, I blame It's a Sin.
I’m not seeing an issue… we’re MILES ahead of the place people thought we’d be in, yet some still want to find fault.
Agreed - but i'm pretty sure i read something last week which said we were about to double our vaccination capacity with another 200 pharmacies coming on board from this week?
As a 48 year old with a 2 week holiday to Italy booked for August I was pretty keen on getting jabbed ASAP!
I'm pretty sure dishing out first doses isn't going to stop completely - everyone but Matt Hancock could see there would be a dip when we needed to start doing 300k of second doses per day.
As a 48 year old with a 2 week holiday to Italy booked for August I was pretty keen on getting jabbed ASAP!
Oh trust me, i know that one, i'm 49 and due to be in Portugal at the end of May, so even Jab1 would potentially help massively with that goal.
My OH is on the Novavax trial and she as an appointment on the 18th of April for her next jab(vaccine or placebo whichever she didn't have before) with second dose in May
Italy
Portuga
I think you need to look at the other countries situation, not just the UK + vaccine = safe.
Have we maybe just gone so fast at this that we've been jabbing faster than the suppliers can keep up? Victims of our own success maybe.
I'm 52. Was initially told my first jab would be early July. It's on Friday, 3 months sooner than I'd expected. Even if I'd fallen the wrong side of the April break, it would still be 2 months sooner than originally planned.
I do agree that a lot of people seem to be mistaking the successful UK programme for it being safe to travel
European situation looking a tad sketchy:
To reduce to one of your other hobbies. We won the first leg of Big Cup 3-0. It’s now half time in the second leg, we’re 2-0 down and in danger of being outplayed. Of course at halftime Mr Klopp is trying to understand and deal with what’s going wrong – not just sitting there and saying ‘we’re still ahead’
I'd say it's more like we were 3-0 down (or 125,000-0), we'd just got one back, started to build some momentum back into the game, and now we are flagging.
Have we maybe just gone so fast at this that we’ve been jabbing faster than the suppliers can keep up? Victims of our own success maybe.
To an extent, yes, although some of the vaccines don't lend themselves to stockpiling and then eking out either because of stability and storage issues, but also from a moral PoV of sitting on doses for future use when people could be getting them.
I don't think Hancock has f'ed up the maths (I doubt they let him near the maths)
I think there is a glitch in the supply chain, that's all. We won't be getting as many as we thought we would. So now we have to slow down what we do have to ensure 1st vaccinations are not wasted because people then don't get a 2nd, we need enough aside to do the 2nds for all the 1st that are done or committed.
But we need to understand what that glitch is rather than simply saying we're ahead of where we thought we'd be. Unless we do we can't plan ahead or sort out the glitch.
I don’t think Hancock has f’ed up the maths (I doubt they let him near the maths)
🤣
One can only hope so!
European situation looking a tad sketchy:
That new variant we gifted them is doing its stuff.
😒
I’m a bit of a stickler for the rules, but even I would say go and see her anyway.
8hr drive each way, two* overnight stops, two (U.K.) countries.
*like a lot of people, I’ve a fair degree of mental exhaustion going on a present.
That new variant we gifted them is doing its stuff.
Does look that way.
I think you need to look at the other countries situation, not just the UK + vaccine = safe.
Absolutely. First question is.
1. Can we go
then we move onto
Can we get back
Do we actually want to go
How much extra will it cost us
Lots of people I know in their 20s and 30s getting texts asking them to book their jab due to underlying health conditions, and half of them dont even know what underlying health condition they have!
I don't think the real reasons for supply is out there yet.
I personally dont think it is the clotting issues or a direct being able to meet demand issue, unless the Department of Health is really bad at simple maths.
I do wonder if some other production issue is occurring which means some batches cannot be used and until that quality control is resolved there is a shortage. Only guessing though based on a little bit of a hint.
theotherjonv
Yes, this if you can. You can’t make her any iller, maybe you’ll get told off and even a £200 fine but against the big picture I’d take that. Take all the precautions you can of course for yourself and others.
^^^
This 110% .... assuming she WANTS you to visit.
8hr drive each way, two* overnight stops, two (U.K.) countries.
Wear a mask filling up ... pay at pump if possible. Try and get a test and self isolate after ...
I think you need to look at the other countries situation, not just the UK + vaccine = safe.
I do agree that a lot of people seem to be mistaking the successful UK programme for it being safe to travel
Yeah - I'm probably guilty of that train of thought.
However - if you look at the situation 12 months ago (which in Northern Italy was horrific) than how things settled down by the summer i do feel there is still reason for cautious optimism.
I won't hesitate to cancel it if things are not looking good though - and i'm certainly not shelling out 100s for testing in each direction.
Absolutely. First question is.
1. Can we gothen we move onto
Can we get back
Do we actually want to go
How much extra will it cost us
This +1.
airvent
Lots of people I know in their 20s and 30s getting texts asking them to book their jab due to underlying health conditions, and half of them dont even know what underlying health condition they have!
Yeah it's a bit weird that people who were not told they were not at risk are suddenly at risk. (Me included)
I was in a morality maze using a vaccine from someone that needs it vs just doing what I was told.
In the end I just got the vaccine.
I hope I haven't given the impression that I feel the vaccination program has been anything short of a roaring success and something everyone involved with can be justifiably proud of. I'm just disappointed that having got so close it looks likely it's going to be put back for me and those in lower age brackets. Oh well. The light at the end of the tunnel is just a bit further away than it was thought.
Absolutely. First question is.
1. Can we gothen we move onto
Can we get back
Do we actually want to go
How much extra will it cost us
And can we cope if the rules change halfway through with no notice
I’m just disappointed that having got so close it looks likely it’s going to be put back for me and those in lower age brackets.
Understandable.
I am literally only just 50 - so skidding into the 1st tranche by the skin of my teeth!
https://www.ft.com/content/d5a26194-9537-4b57-b35a-99236b67823b
FT reporting the possibility the reduction in supply tied to Indian production and domestic demand in India.
I don’t think the real reasons for supply is out there yet.
I personally dont think it is the clotting issues or a direct being able to meet demand issue, unless the Department of Health is really bad at simple maths.
I do wonder if some other production issue is occurring which means some batches cannot be used and until that quality control is resolved there is a shortage. Only guessing though based on a little bit of a hint.
Carrying on with first jabs at the same rate while covering second jabs as needed relies a smooth acceleration in a highly complex manufacturing process spread over several countries. Since the appointments have to be booked and coordinated in advance, unless you can guarantee this extra supply it's best to be cautious and shut down the conveyor belt of people arriving for first jabs.
It could be that the problem resolves itself quickly and we start accelerating again.
then we move onto
Can we get back
Do we actually want to go
How much extra will it cost us
I'd be adding in 'should we, based in the chances of bringing back all manner of other variants from abroad'
Yeah it’s a bit weird that people who were not told they were not at risk are suddenly at risk. (Me included)
And people who have been told for last 12 months that they are at risk (ie me) being dropped from the priority groupings at last moment ....
It's all a bit of a lottery I reckon, however by and large the right people are getting the vaccine first
If I can go I will. I expect a need to test negative before each flight.
The plan is sailing in Greece, so pretty socially distanced.
I wonder if they were expecting to jab the under 50’s with the moderna vaccine and save the AZ/Pfizer for 2nd jabs. I recall this was originally scheduled for March, then it slipped to April, now no mention of it. Could also be a factor in the delay.
A lot of 40-49yr olds have kids in school so was hoping to get my jab before the kids bring it home.
I’m just disappointed that having got so close it looks likely it’s going to be put back for me and those in lower age brackets. Oh well. The light at the end of the tunnel is just a bit further away than it was thought.
I don't know how old you are but im in my 30s and have totally given up on the idea of me getting a jab unless I pay for it. Also, going by the Zoe app it looks like cases are creeping up again ever so slightly. But, i guess that's what happens when you open up.
I don’t know how old you are but im in my 30s and have totally given up on the idea of me getting a jab unless I pay for it.
What led to this conclusion?
I'm similar age. I would happily pay for mine if needed.
Currently, paying would mean jumping the queue and therefore being worse for the country as a whole, so I am thinking of in a few months time.
What led to this conclusion?
Basically little faith in our gov' to do anything right. ( vaccine roll out is an NHS suceess not a gov one)
And before we get into any single track what about this and that.
1. No im not saying i will pay for a jab and jump the queue
2. im not saying i deserve it more than anyone else
3. yes i know im low risk as a fit 30 something working from home.
4. Yes I would be willing to pay for the jab in the future if the nhs stop doing / jab all the people that really need it.
Don't know where you've got that idea Joe? I would expect you to be offered the jab in the fullness of time. It's not in anyone's interests to have bio-reactors wandering about the place that can potentially give rise to new variants.
Fwiw my age group will be next up after this one.
Also, going by the Zoe app it looks like cases are creeping up again ever so slightly. But, i guess that’s what happens when you open up.
Yes, but also test more, find more, and we are testing loads more based on all schoolkids being tested 2-3x per week now.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=~GBR
If I'm reading this right the % of tests that are positive is still declining, way less than in W3's height in Dec / Jan.
Of course there's also the effect that we are now targeting asymptomatic people (ie kids in school) as well as confirmatory testing for symptomatic ones, so not unexpected the % is declining - most asymptomatic people are asymptomatic because they don't have it after all! But we are also presumably finding more asymptomatic folk that do have it as well by this additional testing, whereas in the past they'd have been at home doing lessons on line and having no prompt of needing a test.
TL;DR - cases is not a true reflection of the spread of the virus when the testing regimes are not kept the same. After all: Do no tests, virus appears eradicated!!
I'm fairly convinced everyone will end up getting a jab. This is the one thing the gov has got right, even with their history of backtracking and not giving a shit about anyone but their core voter base, I can't see them reversing this desicion.
I reckon everyone will get jabbed by mid to end of August at latest. I'm not exactly delighted about the delay, but speaking about it today at work a polish chap pointed out that he won't be getting his for 2 years..So must try not to complain
a polish chap pointed out that he won’t be getting his for 2 years
Why?
46 year old friend of mine was asked to book his last week, no health conditions yet i know plenty in the same town older and not contacted yet. I'm quite irritated actually as he's very anti mask, lockdown etc and doesn't follow the rules. He does work on a rich families' private super yacht in the Med in season so maybe they pulled some strings. I suppose it's no bad thing if he gets his vac sooner as he is more likely to be a spreader.
Listening to the radio on the way back from an eye test;
Finally, the truth is that India production have messed up leaving us 5m doses short in April. - Presenter: so why didn't Hancock just say so and avoid the last few days of angst?
Medical expert: UK WHO and EMA all now cite AZ jab as not an issue with the blot slots, and safe to deliver. The political freeze on vaccination and the resulting angst in receiving one is hugely damaging to the global program and direct the blame of the French and German political leadership.
Why?
I'm assuming because Poland aren't in any rush to vaccinate the under 50s like we are, or haven't bought enough vaccines.
Edit..I wasn't clear that hes not uk based.
Finally, the truth is that India production have messed up leaving us 5m doses short in April.
Messed up or the Indians want it for themselves?(wouldn't blame them a bit if that is the case)
Demonstrates we need to be self sufficient in vaccine production
Messed up or the Indians want it for themselves?(wouldn’t blame them a bit if that is the case)
Demonstrates we need to be self sufficient in vaccine production
You really think thats what they would do? The whole nationalisation them vs us attitude to vaccines isn't helpful. Its pretty much the entire narrative the gov' have pushed through this whole pandemic.