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The whole thing has the whiff of Cummings and ‘Get Coronavirus Done’ about it, and I can’t shake the suspicion, irrational or otherwise, that the longer-term desire not to deviate from Brexit policy is influencing our response.
I was thinking that there was a strong element of Cummings, some probably misunderstood science (or actual pseudoscience) and a large amount of arse covering and blame shifting going on. Then I read this:
I've certainly tried to reconcile the concept of herd immunity through exposure with logic and reason, but, like the computer at the end of War Games, I can't find a scenario using the government strategy which doesn't end awfully.
Someone back there posted about lessons learned from the foot and mouth epidemic, and I jokingly hoped that mass culling wasn't the lesson they'd picked up. Seems I may have to revisit that one.
Crazy legs.
I stopped reading when it tried to say Peston was a credible source of facts on the mater.
When your actions are an outlier to pretty much every other country working with the same evidence, questions are inevitable.
This.
The whole thing has the whiff of Cummings and ‘Get Coronavirus Done’ about it, and I can’t shake the suspicion, irrational or otherwise, that the longer-term desire not to deviate from Brexit policy is influencing our response.
Everything, and I mean everything must be subservient to Brexit.
a large amount of arse covering and blame shifting going on
And this.
I’ve come to realise the flattening the curve rhetoric has nothing to do with NHS capacity. It won’t make any difference. We’ll need 200K+ ICU beds to treat the numbers required to get the 60% immunity. The 1K free ICU beds we have won’t make any discernible difference.
The flattening the curve will be to ensure there is enough military/police available to keep order when the public realise a cull of 5-10% of the population is being allowed to happen.
It is not being allowed to happen, it is going to happen regardless of what measures you take. They locked down China and within weeks it is in every country. This is the cold hard truth that most people can not accept.
The manner in which it happens in our country is controllable, to an extent. This isn't about country to country spread, that was always inevitable given the nature of the virus, it is about how many people are going to die.
Martin, you do know Boris has praised the major in Jaws, yes?
"The real hero of Jaws is the mayor".
"A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and he decides to keep the beaches open.
"OK, in that instance he was actually wrong. But in principle, we need more politicians like the mayor-- we are often the only obstacle against all the nonsense which is really a massive conspiracy against the taxpayer".
Worth listening to Margaret Harris (WHO) on Today programme this morning (52 mins in). Specifically about protecting health workers, and scepticism about using herd immunity as a basis for policy when we don’t know enough about this virus yet to make that call.
It is not being allowed to happen, it is going to happen regardless of what measures you take. They locked down China and within weeks it is in every country. This is the cold hard truth that most people can not accept.
This really. There's no good answers, no right scenarios. People are going to die from this, no matter what we do. Some may say less will die if we do xyz but no one really knows for sure.
It is not being allowed to happen, it is going to happen regardless of what measures you take. They locked down China and within weeks it is in every country. This is the cold hard truth that most people can not accept.
Yes but it is not binary. It is not a 1 or a zero and no other alternatives exist.
There is a range from 0.00000001 to 0.9999999 and our policies can influence where on the line we sit. It also has influences on WHEN we sit at those points. There is a LOT of difference that can be made the right or wrong policies.
That post is quite astoundingly daft and ‘give-uppy’ when you think about it.
How about this for plausible deniability.
We, the government told everyone to do this. You the public, ignored our advise and an extra 5000 oaps died because of it.
Its not our fault you lot didn't listen to the experts we chose to believe, so it's on you.
Now carry on being drone workers and paying us all the taxes thank you and goodnight
Not my fault if you can't recognise a Matrix/Morpheus paraphrase when you see one. I think judging by some the responses over the past few pages, Sense of Humour has also got Corona and has self-isolated.
There’s no good answers
Probably true. But some are better than others.
no right scenarios
See above.
People are going to die from this, no matter what we do.
Someone will die in a RTA next week. We could ban road travel. We could lift all speed restrictions. Both would have an effect on the number.
no one really knows for sure
Taken to its logical conclusion no one ever knows anything for sure. Yellowstone might erupt tomorrow and then Coronavirus will not even make page 10.
But in the games of probability you should have some idea. If you are going to be an outlier (as we categorically are) then you’d better have some good explanations to hand and not be afraid of showing your workings.
The government may well be right and we might not be able to stop this.
But why the hell don’t be give it our best shot and throw kitchen sink at this and try to stop it. If we fail the people will still die, but we’ll have bought some extra time to increase ICU capacity, try new drugs etc. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Several Asian countries have got this under control, yes it might come back, but I’d much rather we keep this in check and pull out all the stops to get a vaccine approved.
I’ve certainly tried to reconcile the concept of herd immunity through exposure with logic and reason, but, like the computer at the end of War Games, I can’t find a scenario using the government strategy which doesn’t end awfully.
But can 6ou find a scenario where it doesn't end awfully?
I really don't think the UK strategy is based on not caring. Having read the comments of scientists many have put forward good arguments in favour of it.
As for ensuring that your mum/dad/gran/gramps isn't one of the 60% - this is the exact point. Let the healthy and young gain immunity whilst keeping the vulnerable away from it, then the immune will act as a defence when the vulnerable can return to society.
If you try to prevent everyone from getting it then without a vaccine the virus will still be out there, so when you un-lockdown everyone they'll all get sick again.
We could follow the World Health Organization’s advice and stop this now
No, we couldn't.
There is lots we can do. We should be buying up any company that could be repurposed to make medical supplies and start building temporary hospitals.
There will be many restrictions soon, but the idea that you can sit locked up and wait it out is clearly not realistic.
There are a lot of people feeling a huge amount of pressure to be seen to be doing something, anything - this explains a lot of extreme measures we see in other countries.
The government may well be right and we might not be able to stop this.
But why the hell don’t be give it our best shot and throw kitchen sink at this and try to stop it. If we fail the people will still die, but we’ll have bought some extra time to increase ICU capacity, try new drugs etc. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Several Asian countries have got this under control, yes it might come back, but I’d much rather we keep this in check and pull out all the stops to get a vaccine approved.
It does rather beg the question of why we aren’t.
In my opinion the government don’t really want to try because it will expose all sorts of contradictions, nonsense, incompetence and self interest in lots of areas.
Remember, these are the plucky heroes who ‘Got Brexit Done’ against all the odds.
Here's another one. If we locked the whole country down straight away, a large number of people would simply refuse, cos most people have zero respect for the government (see this thread).
Maybe the behavioural psychologists are letting this simmer whilst they can so that when drastic measures really are required people will get on board and comply.
I think we will see measures introduced gradually, by the government, many of which will be pre-empted by commercial organisations; see the number of events already cancelled. People are coming around to the idea, so they will expect it or even demand it when it happens.
If there's one thing this govt is undeniably good at it's manipulating people, isn't it?
Remember that different countries have completely different relationships with their governments.
As for ensuring that your mum/dad/gran/gramps isn’t one of the 60% – this is the exact point. Let the healthy and young gain immunity whilst keeping the vulnerable away from it, then the immune will act as a defence when the vulnerable can return to society.
Not sure that would work as well as you think. For herd immunity to be effective it has to be equally distributed in society, the idea is to take away hosts that the virus can transmit through and get the R0<1. There will still be isolated infections but it won’t spread.
If all the young healthy people are immune but you have a nursing home with 100 old folks in, with no immunity then a sporadic infection would rip through them.
If there’s one thing this govt is undeniably good at it’s manipulating people, isn’t it?
You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time but you can’t.......
I'm very disconcerted to see that David Halpern's 'nudge unit' and his 'Institute for Government' seems to be having a big influence here. Met him, read his egocentric book where he tries to (unsuccessfully) establish a 'Halpern's Law', wouldn't trust him further than I could kick him. It's all about achieving behavioural change in the context of austerity ie don't throw money at it, throw money at me. If that's the best source of advice the Johnson government can come up with then plan to do the reverse.
If all the young healthy people are immune but you have a nursing home with 100 old folks in, with no immunity then a sporadic infection would rip through them.
But aside from quarantining all old people, what do you do? A large proportion of vulnerable people are in more easily controllable situations. You could screen people coming in to hospitals and old folks' homes and enforce hygiene measures for a long time.
Not sure that would work as well as you think.
Hey, I'm not saying I think it will work. How could I know? I'm not an epidemiologist, just like everyone else on this thread. Just trying to offer a possible justification, much as I hate this government I'm not going to slate everything they do just because.
Cummings is also an egocentric scumbag but again, good at manipulating people as we've seen.
Just because someone is a scumbag doesn't mean that everything they do is always the worst thing. Sometimes their aims and ours align.
But can 6ou find a scenario where it doesn’t end awfully?
Yes, but there's awful, and AWFUL.
Have we forgotten already that the government has declared open hostilities on civil servants who don’t display ‘sufficient revolutionary vigour’.
Are we to assume that these bods are ‘on-side’? Therefore their pronouncements cannot be unquestioned, sorry, but we can no longer assume that it is infact the best available advice.
And whatever else herd immunity is delivered by vaccination (otherwise measles wouldn’t be the problem it is despite it previously having been ‘eradicated’), not by pseudoscience.
Also looking forward to never having flu again (or multiple times in the last 40-odd years)...
Is it right Spain has said “turn planes away, go back to origin”?
What will Gammon do now for anollidai?
We had a referendum to keep people out of this country, leave em’ there IMO.
panic over,
"For many, it is nothing more than a bad cold, really."
One of the first people in Scotland to contract Covid-19 has told the BBC about his recovery from the disease.
The man, in his 50s, was diagnosed almost two weeks ago following a trip to Italy. He returned home on 25 February, a Tuesday.
"I felt no symptoms. I was completely fine and went to work on the Wednesday and Thursday. Later on the Thursday evening, I started to feel a bit of a flu coming on. I had a mild fever, I felt shivery - but the biggest symptom was aches and pains, particularly in my legs.
"I was feverish. That continued through Thursday night and I didn't sleep too well."
On 1 March, he was diagnosed and hospitalised. But from this point on, he said his symptoms did not develop any further.
"By the time I went to hospital, I was feeling fine. The mild flu symptoms quickly dissipated, I had no leg pain, no fever, no cough and no shortness of breath."
He said he wanted to tell his story to the BBC so that people did not panic about exposure to the disease.
said the shepherd Cummins Covid Camp guard :/
Is it right Spain has said “turn planes away, go back to origin”?
Press release from jet 2 suggests it was jet2s call rather than Spain's.
Insurance companies sure are getting their excuses ready judging by the what are my rights article on bbc
Is it right Spain has said “turn planes away, go back to origin”?
Flightrader shows all Jet2 flights turning back, their website says they've suspended all flights to and from Spain, Canary Islands & Balearic Islands.
Don't know about other airlines yet.
The government may well be right and we might not be able to stop this.
But why the hell don’t be give it our best shot and throw kitchen sink at this and try to stop it. If we fail the people will still die, but we’ll have bought some extra time to increase ICU capacity, try new drugs etc. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Several Asian countries have got this under control, yes it might come back, but I’d much rather we keep this in check and pull out all the stops to get a vaccine approved.
Just to add, it is basically down to us as a population whether it can be stopped. If CV19 has a mortality of 90% I’m pretty sure it would be gone in 4-5 weeks as people would go into hard isolation. The virus needs human interaction to spread and stay alive. Cut the transmission and the virus dies out.
While there are enough “I’m alright jack” types “it’s just a bad cold“ muppets it will continue to spread
5000 oaps
Now that would be a problem
It's maybe worth pointing out that the UK response has been agreed by the devolved governments too (though Nicola Sturgeon went further with the advice on large gatherings). Cummins et al may be manipulating things and, of course, it's difficult for the devolved governments to act alone, but I think we'd be more aware of disagreement if there were any.
Alternatively, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland CMO etc are all "in on it" and are secretly supporting Boris Johnsons hidden plans.
Logically reasoning rather than knee-jerk journalists and Jo public scaremongering
Yes its bad but posts like your mudmuncher really do not help anyone. With your solution it'll be back within a couple of weeks . We need herd immunity to tide us over till a vaccine is availible. - if you really want to help they are offering you 3500 quid to be a guinea pig.
For once I agree with molgrips.
Of course, the WHO say the opposite… try to contain… if you fail, at least you are slowing the spread and allowing health services to cope. If you assume from the outset that containing is impossible, and even brief the public that a wide spread is desirable in order to obtain a herd immunity via exposure (without any evidence that this is how this virus works)… you obviously have no chance of containing it, and worse than that you risk over extending the health service and costing extra lives. Imagine the international condemnation China would have received if it had taken this approach.
Yes its bad but posts like your mudmuncher really do not help anyone. With your solution it’ll be back within a couple of weeks . We need herd immunity to tide us over till a vaccine is availible. – if you really want to help they are offering you 3500 quid to be a guinea pig.
There is a lot more we don’t know about this virus than we know. The models are predictions on how we will behave, whether CV19 will be weaker in the summer, whether it will mutate, whether we can get herd immunity etc., none of these things are really known even by the experts.
Better to stall it as aggressively as possible to prepare and learn about it. 40M infections in the next 6 months will be carnage. If we can clear it we might have to lock the borders down (with infected countries) for a year until we have a vaccine, but I see that as the lesser of 2 evils.
Just to add, it is basically down to us as a population whether it can be stopped. If CV19 has a mortality of 90% I’m pretty sure it would be gone in 4-5 weeks as people would go into hard isolation.
And in what scenario can you see people managing to remain isolated for that amount of time? Food only lasts so long and even if you isolated essential workers their families would still be out there. It would require resources and resilience planning most likely well beyond what we are actually capable of achieving. If anything failed, be it logistics, power or healthcare you would be the apocryphal couple of hot meals away from chaos.
I listened to a podcast on the Lancet website, of an interview of a Chinese doctor involved in this. They're testing anti-virus drugs for efficacy, and have done several trials, with a few more to come.
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
So, maybe if you can avoid getting it for a few weeks, you'll be fine.
a wide spread is desirable in order to obtain a herd immunity via exposure (without any evidence that this is how this virus works)
Ah yes, that'd be how we cured polio and AIDS and measles and all those other viruses, just let herd immunity take it's course.
Oh no, wait, we developed a vaccine!
Herd immunity is used to describe a population [b] once (most of) it has been vaccinated [/b]
The Government have come up with another buzzphrase that sounds good and sounds like "a plan" whereas it is in fact the exact opposite of a plan, it's what you do when you have no plan at all.
Soon we'll be "levelling up" the "herd immunity", maybe we'll Get Coronavirus Done (after a short Transition Period where lots of people die).
Herd immunity is used to describe a population once (most of) it has been vaccinated
Isn't the idea that you get vaccinated by getting the disease? It's a bit like going for a jab and the doc saying "this might immunise you and it might not, and anyway it has a 1% chance of killing you". Can't see that creating much confidence.
It’s worse than that… it’s like the doc saying “this might immunise you and it might not, and anyway you’ve probably been contagious for a few days without knowing it, I hope you don’t know any asthmatics, diabetics, or old folk… or that if you do, that you don’t like them much.”
More like.....
It’s a bit like going for a jab and the doc saying “this might immunise you and it might not, and anyway it would have a 1% chance of killing you if we had any ICU beds left, but we haven’t so now more likely 5 to 10%. Oh and if you do survive you might have irreversible pulmonary fibrosis. Ihope you don’t know any asthmatics, diabetics, or old folk… or that if you do, that you don’t like them much.
Oh and viruses change all the time so immunity might only last a few months so we might have to repeat the exercise again. However the pulmonary fibrosis you acquired in the first infection means your chances won’t be great
Is there any Government advice for internet know it alls to self isolate to stop the spread of hysterical bollocks?
Is there any Government advice for internet know it alls to self isolate to stop the spread of hysterical bollocks?
You could go to your nearest kids playground dig a hole in the sandpit and bury your head in it.
Ah yes, that’d be how we cured polio and AIDS and measles and all those other viruses, just let herd immunity take it’s course.
Completely different diseases and situations. You now not all viruses are the same right?
Yes, not all viruses are the same, which is why assuming herd immunity can be obtained through exposure, rather than using tested vaccines, for a new novel virus, is, er… a brave strategy that still sounds like it comes from the outside the box thinking behavioural experts loved by this Number Ten team, rather than the epidemiology consensus.
Lidl doesn't have any Earl Grey. Shits hit the fan.
News from the old man in Spain, bars in the mojacar area being told to close but not forced to yet.
Madrid on lock down and a mass exodus from there to the costas...
So while we are in this conspiracies thread can you remind me what your plans are for once the supplies have run out and your forced out of lockdown ? - and the virus still exists.
If we were weeks away from a.vaccine then yes agree.
But as it is we would be kicking the ball down the park to face an even worse situation in 4-5 weeks when every one emerges.
Its a bit like having your own nuclear bunker to see out the blast then opening the doors to the fall out and dying of starvation due to fall out contamination.
As for comparison to aids and hiv. Well.
and then closing the beaches
I'm in Galicia (Northern Spain) and all shops/bars/restaurants are closed throughout the region except for supermarkets/shops selling food/tobacco and pharmacies
MIL is in a nursing home and we were told yesterday that visiting is now restricted to one nominated family member (for the duration, not per visit) and visiting times restricted to a 2-hour window each day.
From the Beeb just now:
"Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged countries to use aggressive measures, community mobilisation and social distancing to save lives."
You could go to your nearest kids playground dig a hole in the sandpit and bury your head in it.
Apart from posting on here, what are you actually doing about any of these concerns you have?
The fact we are not testing scares me. My family are now self isolating as we have a cough. If I were tested and found to have the virus I would not leave the house for many days yet. However, I can't get tested as my symptoms are not serious enough, and based on the 7 day isolation I am expected to return to work on Monday.
People will mostly under estimate the severity of their illness. So not testing will encourage spread.
can’t get tested as my symptoms are not serious enough, and based on the 7 day isolation I am expected to return to work on Monday.
Urm. You still have symptoms. Why you going back to work ?
Advice is if your still I'll to continue to self isolate and to call 111 not to act as everything's all right.
which is why assuming herd immunity can be obtained through exposure, rather than using tested vaccines, for a new novel virus, is, er… a brave strategy that still sounds like it comes from the outside the box thinking behavioural experts loved by this Number Ten team, rather than the epidemiology consensus.
It's not a completely new virus like HIV was. It's a type of coronavirus, other types of which are already around.
I think the scientists are being listened to here. But as we know scientists disagree sometimes.
Some background on Chris Whitty, the guy you all think you know better than:
Because as I understand it the rules are 7 days isolation from the onset of symptoms.
"Advice is if your still I’ll to continue to self isolate and to call 111 not to act as everything’s all right"
I do love this place. 🙂
Have you tried calling 111. They aren't interested. They make it very clear, but way of recorded message and website, that unless you are virtually incapable of moving to just stay at home and self isolate. I have a cough and a cold. Nothing else. But I'm assuming the worst and we haven't left the house since Thursday.
And I said I was expected to return to work. I intend not to.
You understand wrong, TR is quoting exactly what I read on the NHS website.
Anyone see that Tomas Pueyo bloke whose blog every man & his dog has linked to recently on the Chaannel 4 special yesterday? He was a lot less impressive in the flesh compared to the epidemiologist he appeared alongside. Came across as being a lot hysterical.
No idea how to quote. I don't post very often.
"You understand wrong, TR is quoting exactly what I read on the NHS website."
This is from the 111 website based on my answers, and the same message is conveyed when calling and holding.
" Stay away from other people for at least the next 7 days. If your high temperature lasts longer than 7 days, stay at home until it's back to normal.
Testing for coronavirus is not needed if you're staying at home."
I have no temperature.
I disagree with this though and I really would like to isolate for the next 6 months.
Given the demographics of those who can work from home and those who cannot when all this is done the data could be interesting.
But as it is we would be kicking the ball down the park to face an even worse situation in 4-5 weeks when every one emerges.
This Government is expert at kicking the can down the road, they've had years of practice with Brexit!
a wide spread is desirable in order to obtain a herd immunity via exposure
So that would be natural selection then.
Apologies if already posted
An analysis of the government approach
I don't know the author's bona fides, but he's a prof in the Institute Of Population Health Sciences at Liverpool Uni, so may know a bit about it
You could go to your nearest kids playground dig a hole in the sandpit and bury your head in it.
Or not read it.
You could think of a snappy name for it. How about 'self isolation'?
I reckon there's a good couple of hundred pages before STW herd immunity kicks in, though, so until then....
If you don't like it, don't read it.
nless you are virtually incapable of moving to just stay at home and self isolate.
Yes, this is a good idea IMO. We know people will get it and have mild symptoms, so testing millions of people with coughs and colds will just tie up resources.
So that would be natural selection then.
No, the idea is to protect the vulnerable and let the low-risk get it and recover to create population immunity. Quarantining everyone raises many serious questions.
unless you are virtually incapable of moving to just stay at home
So you've to leave the house if you are incapable of moving? I think I've found a slight flaw in this logic... (-:
And in what scenario can you see people managing to remain isolated for that amount of time? Food only lasts so long and even if you isolated essential workers their families would still be out there. It would require resources and resilience planning most likely well beyond what we are actually capable of achieving.
That's a completely defeatist and I might say cowardly outlook. If you look at other countries like China and Italy the public have completely embraced it and are doing their bit in order to protect the vulnerable and medical workers. No one is suggesting it will be easy, it won't. We're all going to have to accept massive and uncertain changes to our lives, but the evidence of China shows it will work. For how long we don't know, but if the alternative is doing nothing and sacrificing 1-4% of the populatiuon then just from an ethical and moral position we have no choice but to try.
No, the idea is to protect the vulnerable and let the low-risk get it and recover to create population immunity. Quarantining everyone raises many serious questions.
... which won't work.
If it did, then measles etc could have been eradicated naturally and we'd never have had need for a vaccine, rather than it ravaging a population for generation upon generation. The notion that this is "herd immunity" is (another, surprise!) government lie.
Herd immunity works by inoculating the majority of the population so that those who can't be immunised aren't exposed to risk. Waiting for as many people as possible to contract it is the opposite of that, it's maximising exposure to the vulnerable. It's "herd immunity" with the price tag of actually killing the people that herd immunity is supposed to protect.
A group of Dutch scientists believe they’ve found an antibody that could help to detect and prevent the coronavirus from being able to infect people.....
The scientists were already working on an antibody for Sars1 and when the new coronavirus broke out, they said they had found that the same antibodies cross-reacted and blocked the infection
From the BBC.
Probably means nothing but if true then it's a bit of progress.
The fact we are not testing scares me. My family are now self isolating as we have a cough. If I were tested and found to have the virus I would not leave the house for many days yet. However, I can’t get tested as my symptoms are not serious enough, and based on the 7 day isolation I am expected to return to work on Monday.
At the end all you know is you met the criteria for self isolation. Therefore have to keep on observing the biosecurity. Plan or co-incidence? Just to keep it on conspiracy topic.
Although on the conspiracy theme the only game in town is did they infect and isolate Boris when he went AWOL for two weeks. I'll get traction, or maybe a tin hat for this one yet!
Herd immunity, if I understand this right, we accept the potential price is ourselves or people we know for everyone else. I have been very pro all stop full stop but if this is across the globe you release quarantine and virus can just come back in.
Back to film references - it's the Kobayashi Maru (Star Trek if your wondering) or damned if you do damned if you dont.
Well this has thread has well and truly gone off the deep end hasn't it?
So whilst you lot are paddling round in the kiddies end of the pool my night shift fugue state insinuated this nasty little thought into my mind when I woke up today.
"what if this is only the start?"
Ming's second axiom "Nature hates a cocky species"
Most species crippling/extinction events are actually a series of kicks in the teeth/nuts starting with stressors, change in climate, extreme vulcanism, disease, change in solar constant, asteroid/comet impact or Hostile species arriving (think white man v Aborigines, American Indians, Maori).
Is this the first one at the start of the fall of Man?
Mrs M says I still can't buy a crossbow.
What a lovely thought
🤦
"White man", native Americans, Maori, and aborigines are all the same species