Forum menu
You know what they say about assumption...
Aren’t you a clever boy.
I wouldn't regard basic arithmetic and largely refraining from posting banal bollocks on the internet as a particularly good indicator of intelligence, so no.
You know what they say about assumption…
Indeed which is why I noted it was based on assumptions, it is also why if I get the chance I like to look at the underlying assumptions.
Who are the modellers? Interested why there's such a discrepancy (6 weeks in a 13 or 19 week delivery plan to the same endpoint is quite a difference?)
Who are the modellers? Interested why there’s such a discrepancy (6 weeks in a 13 or 19 week delivery plan to the same endpoint is quite a difference?)
It's not the point estimates, rather the regions of prediction uncertainty. Models by both Imperial and Warwick provide overlapping intervals. Assumptions are of course always a challenge - how much protection? what roll-out rate? What is the effect on transmission? What other policies might change? etc...
the picture I painted up there with simple but robust arguments is, unfortunately, not going to be far wrong. The models quantify this and overlay precision. Whether such precision is necessary for policy is a moot point. One can argue it helps frame the decision, but those skilled in the art would always be advising caution in interpretation.
I've said it before, but the more you understand numbers, the less willing you are to act on any single prediction 😉 - that's certainly been my experience in modelling in multiple fields.
Don't call them "predictions"... that's the starting point to better use.
Anyway... I'll ignore talk of us all getting the first jab before 21st June 'till I've heard it from someone fully across the vaccine rollout, rather than someone who thinks it can be discerned by using just basic arithmetic using a few headline numbers. I really hope you're right Mefty, and I will cheer if it turns out that you are.
Millions of high-grade NHS masks withdrawn over safety concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56167916
must admit it was very galling to see Matt Hancock has said that there had been no PPE shortages, knowing the lengths some of my colleagues had to go to get hold of scrubs, goggles, gloves & sanitiser in March
@slowpuncheur thanks for the kind words mate.
No side effects at all today I'm glad to say. Even the arm isn't sore. Though I have less sensation in that seem due to a Neuro issue so that mask soreness a little!
I'm going for an eye test late next month now, can't wait.lol Not been happy about having one over the last year and my glasses/eyes are a little buggered.😁
kimbers
Full Member
must admit it was very galling to see Matt Hancock has said that there had been no PPE shortages, knowing the lengths some of my colleagues had to go to get hold of scrubs, goggles, gloves & sanitiser in March
Total reality denial! 😠
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.”
Poopscoop - with Pfizer I believe the reaction is often 2 days post jab.
NickC - the situation is similar here - my local rural centre struggles to get staff from the NHS bank as they don’t want to travel. Meanwhile as a St John vaccinator I am only allowed to work at the big centre. Even though I’m 2 miles from the understaffed one. Plus the NHS have stopped recruitment - I’ve completed their training but they’ve stopped recruiting.
@tired, was not aimed at you. It was mefty who said modellers were suggesting 4M vaccinations per week x 13 weeks.
I agree your modelling is far harder, but this one is easy, doesn't rely on transmission rates or protection, just rate X weeks X uptake. Hence why I'm intrigued why the two estimated end points for every adult to have had at least one dose differ from Gov to mefty's modellers by so much.
And I can't find a reference to these 4M/WK anywhere, so whose model is being referenced?
dantsw13
Free Member
Poopscoop – with Pfizer I believe the reaction is often 2 days post jab.
Really? I've got some paracetamol in if I feel a little "fluey".
Regarding teachers, it seems insane that they aren't being called up asap to have the vaccination. Should have happened already allowing for the 3 week period after the jab to become effective.
Poopscoop - you may well get nothing at all! I completely agree with regards to teachers.
Germany are vaccinating teachers as well as vulnerable now, be interesting to see if government will do so here
And I can’t find a reference to these 4M/WK anywhere, so whose model is being referenced?
SPI-M paper - see Key Changes section para 2 (and also first assumption in Key Assumption table)
Not sure if the teachers vaccine is up to the schools? I have a couple of friends who are teachers and have had the vaccine, early 30’s no health conditions, also have one friend who is a science teacher and she refused to have it...guess it’s personal choice.
Thanks Mefty. Interesting, fingers crossed they can reach that rate. Also still query why on that rate (and I agree completely with your maths, was only sceptical on the rate) that would see us all done by Jun 21 whereas the Gov is so different (52M/19 weeks = 2.75M). In fact - we'll be done sooner than Jun 21st, using a variant of your calc. Namely:
If we can do 4M / wk from last week in March. we're still doing 2.5M/week currently give or take, so in 5 weeks to end March that's another 12.5M, on top of the 18M first dosed and 650K double dosed.
If we consider then that's 17.4M needing a second dose; and 34M as yet undosed (52-18) and we need to do the 17.4M again, we need 51.4M to give all adults at least one dose
12.5M at current rate to end March leaves 38.9M to do at 4M per week = 10 weeks. End May/early June.
It's more complex than that because we don't know how many second doses come up to their 12w window before the first doses can all be completed, which is where I think the date goes out, then again 52M is the total - does not account for refusals, not able to have vaccine, etc within the >18 population.
French also only offering 1 dose to those already with antibodies
We are all in a giant clinical trial!
This weeks vaccine numbers down, which links in with my experience - we’ve been standing staff down due to low bookings.
News articles suggest we are low on supplies until Pfizer upgraded plant comes back on stream. I guess we burnt our stocks meeting the 15th deadline.
TOJV - I imagine also that whilst 4m/week will happen, there are bound to be supply issues/bad weeks so there’s some fat in their dates.
French also only offering 1 dose to those already with antibodies
My aunt is a district nurse in her 60s in Paris. She's spent the last year coordinating and undertaking home visits to some of the most vulnerable population. She got her first jab recently, and then a message to say when to return to hospital for her second jab. Then another message cancelling the appointment and saying to get the second one from a GP. She said the all GPs in France are being provided a single 10 dose vial. One.Single.Vial. So good luck getting that second dose.
She did manage to get back to London to look after her mum (my Nan) after she was discharged from hospital after a week for a non-related issue. Sadly my Nan contracted COVID-19 in the hospital and was discharged without having been told. She was asymptomatic fortunately, but my type 1 diabetic Granddad, her full-time carer, wasn't so lucky. My aunt spent a few days looking after them both before he needed oxygen. He's since passed.
Ultimately, he needn't have died. As cold as it might sound, he was in better psychological and physical shape than my Nana, and I can't help thinking that he might have had a better quality of life for his last years after she had died.
Living in Australia and working in hospitals (where I see and hear all kinds of problems too) it's hard to not be staggered at the incompetence of a system that tests and releases before confirming the test results. Potentially there are thousands of people leaving hospitals COVID+ and infecting people.
My Dad wants to try and get this point across. I know the system here and where I would take this issue, but it's hard to judge where to go to try and influence decision-making in the UK, given the utter shit show. Does anyone know if it's worth trying anything, or where to go to get the story heard?
dantsw13
Free Member
TOJV – I imagine also that whilst 4m/week will happen, there are bound to be supply issues/bad weeks so there’s some fat in their dates.
absolutely whoever is pulling Johnsons string now is finally getting him to stop over-promising
My Dad wants to try and get this point across. I know the system here and where I would take this issue, but it’s hard to judge where to go to try and influence decision-making in the UK, given the utter shit show. Does anyone know if it’s worth trying anything, or where to go to get the story heard?
Im sorry reeksy, you could try the health correspondent at the guardian, https://twitter.com/sarahboseley?lang=en
but honestly your story is one that 1000s of others could tell and I cant see it getting it to stick on a government who will simply deny everything
Sorry to hear that Reeksy - A very similar situation happened with my Aunt/Uncle:
Uncle was taken into hospital for non-covid related issue. He was discharged while clearly displaying covid-symptoms, but either hadn't had a test before discharge, or the results hadn't been received.... but discharged he was.
He spent less than 24 hrs at home with my Aunt before needing to be re-hospitalised (this time for Covid), and he died fairly soon afterwards.
Unfortunately, that night at home with my Aunt was sufficient to pass it to her. She has recovered (thank goodness) but it very easily could have claimed both of them.
I was/am absolutely enraged that they sent somebody who so obviously had COVID (they died of it literally within the next day or so) home to their elderly spouse - but I understand that this pattern was repeated up and down the country, often with worse consequences (nursing homes).
Thanks @kimbers and @batfink - sorry that happened to your family.
My Nan is now in an aged care home as a result, so the impact potentially continues...
But i'm not suggesting the government are responsible here, more that the hospital/Trust needs to make modifications to their workflows to prevent further harm. It's essentially a patient safety incident that in 'normal times' (or if it occurred where I work) requires assessment. Yes, there are 1000s of others ... that's kind of the point really.
It’s essentially a patient safety incident that in ‘normal times’ (or if it occurred where I work) requires assessment.
I would say that the trust will certainly have a (well used) complaints procedure - and that's effectively what this is. Making a complaint to the trust is probably as constructive as you can hope for - they will invariably have a procedure in place to ascertain whether there were any mistakes made, and a commitment to address if so.
I would however, be clear with yourself that probably the most desirable outcome here is that it helps your dad's grieving process, rather than any more tangible return.
Thanks. It's pretty much what i suggested to him. I don't think it's really part of his grieving, more civic duty. He feels he should do something to raise the issue. Even if nobody listens, at least he'll have spoken up.
Terrible stories both. I know not unusual.
I actually think the plan is pretty reasonable as a starting point. My worry is that the govt will anchor to it and refuse to modify in the light of data, until it is too late to avoid significant additional harm. That’s what they have done throughout the pandemic.
An obvious scenario is that cases start to rise as schools go back, but they press ahead with further opening up in late March. Well, we can hope for some luck.
Not sure if the teachers vaccine is up to the schools?
No
Not all the papers are quite so gung-ho on the dates not data
referencing the SPI-M-O work. Unfortunately most of the population don't read the Guardian. Telegraph headline: Faster Path to Freedom if Jabs Exceed Expectations, pushing the point that Data not Dates cuts two ways.
What many seem to forget it, it's not down to 'us' regarding flights etc.
Just because our government say we can fly somewhere, doesn't mean that country will actually allow us to go there.
From a UK perspective, we just need a little patience, we've done it for a year now, another 6-8 weeks and things will get better... it's all good. The sun is back, spring is coming... embrace it 🙂
So schools are expected to open up over the summer. With a princely six grand per primary and twenty grand per secondary. Presumably that keeps the lights on and pays for cleaning and insurance, with teachers turning up for free. 🤣
An average £6k per primary and £22k per secondary school isn't going to go very far for this summer school catchup project, when it's technically overtime for the teachers... And that's if they want and have the energy to do it, teachers very much deserve their summer break this year!
Think I read last night that Labour claim the total financial package is less than that given to "Eat out to help Covid out." It sounds like another poorly thought through Boris project.
It's a good idea if the teachers weren't already completely fried from a year of home learning and hokey-cokey policy changes
So schools are expected to open up over the summer.
Isn't that going to need a big change to terms and conditions?
Whats the context of that 6k, are school getting some funding or something?
The £6k is the Govt's feeble attempt to try to demonstrate they are doing something about it. When you say we're funding this and it costs £1Bn it sounds great but as with all of these things the Devil is in the detail. If it's £6k per school it will barely cover the operational costs of keeping the building open, warm and clean for 6 weeks.
Whats the context of that 6k, are school getting some funding or something?
Martin said…
So schools are expected to open up over the summer. With a princely six grand per primary and twenty grand per secondary.
And that’s about it. That video I posted was an attempt to get out of the Gavlar what the six grand was supposed to fund.
Unfortunately it just seems to be the way governments - it's not just this one. Management by apparently reasonable proclamation. As ever the devil is in the detail which appears to be lint and buttons once you get down to where it matters.
They are having a laugh with the school funding, surely?
And I fully support the idea that teachers need a proper break this summer, though no doubt they will spend a chunk of it planning how to start catching up the lost year while government moves targets and goalposts.
Some very clever people out there
vaccine pill or spray
We are also thinking about second generation formulations of vaccine. As you know all the vaccines have been given at the moment as intramuscular injections. That is not necessarily the best way to provide protection against a respiratory virus infection, where we want to the immune system to be active in the upper respiratory tract and then in the lower spiritual tract, which is where the virus is causing the infection.
And we have flu vaccines that are given by nasal spray. And this could be a very good approach in the future to use vaccines against coronaviruses.
It’s also possible to consider oral vaccination where you take a tablet that will give you the immunisation, and that would have a lot of benefits for vaccine rollout, if you didn’t have to use the needles and syringes for people.
Christ imagine if someone as stupid as Williamson was your boss.....oh hang on...
Kids that are most behind are also least likely to want to go to school in the summer holiday.
It's okay... the BBC are leading their report with the line that teachers are saying that six thousand pounds is a "good start"... not sure Gavlar has to do his own spinning of yet another case of promising to deliver for kids using pocket money funding.
6k per school? What exactly will that cover, Williamson? Did you do maths, you know, at school, that thing you're "in charge" of?
So the plan to put arrivals in Quarantine Hotels is going as planned then: (from the Guardian Live feed)
Around 99% of daily arrivals in the UK are not going into hotel quarantine, MPs have been told.
The home affairs select committee were told by the Border Force director general, Paul Lincoln, that there are around 14,000 to 15,000 people arriving in the UK through all ports each day, of which around 150 a day are going into mandatory hotel quarantine. There are currently about 1,100 to 1,200 people in total in hotels since the requirement was introduced 10 days ago.
British and Irish nationals or UK residents arriving from a list of 33 countries are now required to book a 10-day quarantine package costing £1,750 per adult. Lincoln told the MPs that Public Health England are due to publish a figure on the proportion of Covid cases believed to be coming into the country from overseas. He said previously it was estimated to be 0.5% of domestic cases but he understood it was now significantly lower.
The chair of the committee, Yvette Cooper, asked what the compliance rate was for the 99% of arrivals who were required to quarantine at home. Lincoln said the latest assessment by the police is around 85%.
Defending the whole policy, the home secretary, Priti Patel, said nearly 8,000 sample calls were taking place every day to ensure travellers were self isolating. “I would like to put this in wider context of the measures in place, this is a layered approach,” she said. She went on:
"People are now familiar with the testing prior to travel, passenger locator form, all the measures put in place to give assurance ... this is all about managing the risk."
1% of arrivals in the hotels, the rest being trusted to isolate at home with a check-up phone call? They need to get this whole system running smoothly before the hoardes go on their hollibobs.
Secretary of State for Education. Still. Unbelievably.
why the silly nickname?
Gavin & Stacey innit
If anyone in the world of politics needs a silly belittling nickname, it’s that guy.
But the context is lost if you're not in on the joke
🤦♂️
the rest being trusted to isolate at home with a check-up phone call?
Please tell me they are ringing a landline and not using a mobile number to make sure you are at home.
You still have a landline number boomer?
Reading and Leeds boss 'very confident' festivals will happen
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-56185142
I can't say I begrudge people going to them in the slightest but it still gives me hives to think about it.😁 Im my son gives them a miss this year but I won't be pushing him to, his decision.
That said, I've only ever gone too small festivals, a few hundred, but not this year. 2022 though, fingers crossed. I don't like too many around me even pre Covid.
My DuckDuckGo-fu isn't helping me find where my lower spiritual tract is... 🙂
You still have a landline number boomer?
Specifically so I can quarantine at home after my "jab and go" cruise round the Med while all the millennials are still waiting for the vaccination 😎
Please tell me they are ringing a landline and not using a mobile number to make sure you are at home.
A lot of people would be stuffed if that was required. Could go for a clone of that mountain rescue service where you get a text which sends back your location. That and a phone call might work.
The more important question is what happens if they dont answer. Last year at least the response was "give up". Not overly good at catching offenders.
Works for me.....
it works again!
I wonder if there will be any "Long Coronavirus discussion thread" issues...🤔
Phew!
Sorry about that folks.
Yes, but now it's not letting me post on the 'Why can't I post on the Coronavirus Thread?' thread. :).
For a moment I thought we'd run out of things to say.
Yes, but now it’s not letting me post on the ‘Why can’t I post on the Coronavirus Thread?’ thread. :).
Same here. And Drac closed the third thread where we were telling him that, with a link to the thread we couldn't post to about where couldn't post to! 😸 It'll all come good in the end.... thanks for dealing with us Drac. Plenty of other threads still closed to new posts for me. Nothing that can't wait 'till tomorrow, or next week (or in some cases 2024).
For a moment I thought we’d run out of things to say.
No, thats targeted for June 22nd* when its all over
*subject to Data
Not sure if it's correct of not, but I've just read that the jcvi priority for phase 2 vaccination is soon to be announced, and it's by age.
No priorities for teachers, other front line workers etc..but all prisoners will be prioritised. That last one I must say I'm not in favour of....
Why? The virus loves prisons.
I'd heard the same yesterday about teachers and other front line workers. All makes sense 'till you're opening up the places they work to people from hundreds of additional households very soon.
I did Kelvin as it was reported as a duplicate, ironically that stopped anyone replying to that one too.
I found it funny, in a kafkaesque way. Thanks again for dealing with this.
but all prisoners will be prioritised. That last one I must say I’m not in favour of….
We're a nominally civilised country (Priti Patel notwithstanding) and we no longer kill prisoners for minor infractions of the law.
Plus, it protects prison officers and their families, who have no option but to be in close proximity to them.
There was an outbreak at Ashwell prison and inevitably it tipped into the local community. Got my letter this morning and jab booked tomorrow, yippee!
It'll be interesting how they fund summer schools. In Scotland we get paid for the term time days but it's spread over the year. So not paid holidays.
That works if we strike. Because it costs us more than 1 day but if you want extra non-term time teaching......
It's why we were given the week back for going back early in autumn and not paid for it.
My mate is a teacher with asthma. She won't get the jab as a priority, however a perfectly healthy 20 year old prisoner will...I won't apologise for saying that stinks
If you are going to prioritise prisoners, then what about students in halls of residence? The virus loves halls of residence as well after all
we no longer kill prisoners for minor infractions of the law.
Nobody is suggesting we kill them. But I certainly don't think we should be prioritising their health over health of other people.
Anyway its just my opinion, I don't need to justify it to anyone that disagrees with me
Not as a teacher, but if her asthma puts her at risk then presumably she'll get that call sooner?
I don't disagree about prioritisation but in the rush to condemn let's not forget that the more significantly at risk teachers - over 50, or who have other health issues will be getting vaccinated via those channels. Teachers are not banned from being vaccinated, as some of the responses might suggest.
(I know there's not many >50 year olds in teaching, obviously, they've all retired on gold plated pensions 😉 )
Teachers are not banned from being vaccinated, as some of the responses might suggest.
Which responses suggests that?
But I certainly don’t think we should be prioritising their health over health of other people.
We're not. As others pointed out, it's about reducing the risk to everyone, not the prisoners. It's the same with teachers... they should be prioritised for vaccination to try and prevent them being a transmission vector between classes, which is about protecting the community. That's also one of the reasons it should have been (arguably too late now) staff at secondary schools and sixth forms that were the priority over primary school staff (where bubbling is more realistic).
The teacher vaccines is a strange one, my dad is helping out at the local pharmacy vaccine centre in the village and they heard last week that teachers were going to be next and then nothing since. They were chatting yesterday and reckoned that if they sent all the teachers in our area to them then it would only take a couple of days (they average around 450 a day). If you look at it like that sure it would make sense just to say to all teachers support staff etc to be done over one weekend and then crack on with the normal routine from the monday after. My wife works in a primary school and she has had her first jab already and it so have quite a few of her workmates (somerset area)