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Dido Harding still in charge. They also changed the way they measure themselves so magically they got from about 70-80% of contacts traced to 93%.
Some estimates put the percentage of those traced that actually isolate as low as 20%.
Some 80% of those contacted say they have no other contacts. Makes you wonder how they got so unlucky really, and what the percentage of people living in this country alone is...🙄
Alright, scratch that one then. Not sure how they are planning to navigate this spring summer period then.
I just want to give us a chance to get track and trace working for us properly.
Give over, T&T is pointless and always has been, independent analysis is arguing it does very little to drive the rates down but of course Dido says otherwise, surprised by that...
You can have a million people phoning contacts but if those contacts aren't isolating for various reasons then it renders the whole point redundant.
The bill is now at £22Bn for T&T, when it was at £8Bn it looked like a huge disaster but now it's beyond a scandal. It's absolutely crazy that there is no accountability for any of this mess.
The bill is now at £22Bn for T&T, when it was at £8Bn it looked like a huge disaster but now it’s beyond a scandal. It’s absolutely crazy that there is no accountability for any of this mess.
I mean why would a bunch of rich white people ever feel the need to take account of anything. Its called privilege for a reason. But, I will put my hate the tories in a box.
You can have a million people phoning contacts but if those contacts aren’t isolating for various reasons then it renders the whole point redundant.
I've never been contacted and hope never to be so I dont know how it works, do they tell you who or at least when your contact is?
Is's not ideal (or following the rules) but we can hope that at least some of the poeple who arent isolating are at least being more careful or getting themselves a test, so it has some benefit.
Proper T+T - see batfinks Aus example from a few days ago is going to be completely unacheivable here.
Really interesting/scary chat with some of the younger members of my team today. All of them:
Early to mid 20's
First or second job of their career
Living at home with parent(s) or with housemate that also WFH
All of them is struggling to hang on. Every. Single. One.
Their struggles are:
No outlet - They can't meet friends to off load, they can't go to the gym, they can't have some light retail therapy, all the traditional ways of destressing for that age groups (lets be honest, go and get drunk with friends) have been taken away.
Poor WFH space - shared flats/houses mean they're working from bedrooms or shared space in a dining room/kitchen. They feel they can't work to their full potential and feel the quality of work is suffering. That is often combined with overloaded internet when you have 3 or 4 people on video calls.
Harder to learn and develop - We've got a really good programme in place but you need to be amongst your peers to pick things up and to gain knowledge. They've not had that for 12 months.
They can't meet new people - Without putting to finer point on it, they're in their 20's and want to date, to meet people, to mingle and to have some "fun", that's been off the menu for a while, particularly those who live with parents.
Nothing to look forward to - Most had plans for Xmas or for upcoming holidays. All either were cancelled or are about to be. They can't even look forward to a night out, Zoom just isn't cutting it.
These people work for a big organisation who have been better than most in terms of work load management, well being programmes and other stuff, but these people simply need to get out and about again. They know why we're doing it, but that doesn't change the impact it's having on them.
I've said it before worry that hose calling for longer, harder measures really need to look at it from other peoples perspectives. It's easy for me and others like me, I'm 40, have space in my house to work from home easily and my social life has gone the way of most other 40 year olds!
SIL does T&T, still fairly common for her to do a whole shift and not have any calls to make. I think she had one shift like that at the weekend.
I’ve said it before worry that hose calling for longer, harder measures really need to look at it from other peoples perspectives.
Many of those people have made it clear they want less time with hard measures in place, more time with far less hard measures in place (and that we could well have already been at the "less hard measures" stage now if it wasn't for past mistakes)... but are saying that the path to that is to not release current measures too early.
Here is the rub...
...when you "lock down" late, you have to lock down for longer. When you come out of lock down to soon, you make another lock down more likely.
...and also...
...when you "lock down" too loosely, you have to lock down for longer.
We shouldn't be in lock down now. We shouldn't have had to lock down as long as we have.
And it's not just the young hit by the mismanagement that has resulted in late and seemingly endless restrictions... it is everyone. Grandparents living alone. Divorcees living far from their kids. Everyone.
Off topic but- This thread should be preserved for its historical significance. Basically future generations will be able to read it and see how the pandemic panned out in real time.
Starting with daz's very first post, thought the initial posts that included some people really panicking, the accusation of being drama queens by others, to the 'oh shit, this is actually pretty bad'realisation, and beyond ...
My wife's just had her vaccination. Pizer. Aged 56 with minor congenital heart defect.
Process was very efficient at local town hall, organised by the local GPs.
Aged 60 no underlying health conditions. Got my Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine yesterday at 09:00. Felt ok for 12 hours then came down with Chimpanzee flu. Shivers, temperature, aches and fatigue. Recovering now but still feel like I have a hangover. My daughter who got hers last week suffered the same symptoms. However as one possible alternative to not getting vaccinated is drowning in your own body fluids it's a small price to pay
Some estimates put the percentage of those traced that actually isolate as low as 20%.
Some 80% of those contacted say they have no other contacts. Makes you wonder how they got so unlucky really, and what the percentage of people living in this country alone is…🙄
There's a blindingly obvious solution to this problem. As we seem perfectly happy to pay some people 80% of their wage to not go to work we could presumably do the same for those told to isolate.
I'd certainly not give track and trace any details of my contacts as I'd not want to put them in a position where there's an official record, but I would let any contacts know so they could make their own decision. There only appears to be downsides from an individuals point of view to engaging with the testing system.
Remember I typed watch this space about the spat over AZ vaccine deliveries? Well it's official now, the EU signed 24 hours before the UK. Keep watching.
I'm sure they'll find some nebulous wording in the contracts that conclusively declare UK plc the champions 🤦♂️
The vaccine rows between rich countries is all a bit distasteful. If I was in Morocco or Moldova I'd be very unimpressed
There’s a blindingly obvious solution to this problem
Trouble is this government will try everything else first before the bleedin obvious
Except beware the law of unintended consequences. 'lada, lads! The government are paying 500 a week if you've got covid!' 😬
I’m sure they’ll find some nebulous wording in the contracts that conclusively declare UK plc the champions
At least you don't have to read very far to find it.
Give over, T&T is pointless and always has been
Australia and New Zealand clearly demonstrate that if you get the infection rate down low enough to begin with, proper T&T is very effective. I know that the word "if" is doing a lot of work there.
I agree with everything Kelvin said up there, especially
And it’s not just the young hit by the mismanagement that has resulted in late and seemingly endless restrictions… it is everyone. Grandparents living alone. Divorcees living far from their kids. Everyone.
It's months since I've hugged my parents, or they've hugged their grandchildren. My in laws have had to go into a home - early dementia and late stage cancer - having not seen their grandkids for 14 months now. I've never met the new team I work with. I'm really struggling with the training for my new job, having to do it alone at home, the whole team is the same. I can't go for a ride and a beer with my mates to unload and unwind. I love my wife but ****ing hell, 12 months in the same house with the same people makes it hard sometimes. Her job means she gets to go out and visit families, and she bounces out the house at the idea of new places and people, the selfish cow 😉
I know I've got it easier than many - of any age group, and I know how tough it is on the young, the kids and 18 and 14, but the young really don't have a monopoly on how miserably shit this last 12 months has been and sometimes I get a bit tired of being told that they have.
And none of this latest round needed to have happened if this useless government had made some blindingly obvious decisions over the last 12 months that would have reduced the impact of the virus on all our lives.
Apologies. Rant over. And breeeeeeeeathe....
I’m astonished that this question keeps being asked
I’m not, you only have to look at every voxpop piece to camera about someone’s angst about covid, it’s nearly always driven by ego and fundamentally about the self rather than society and how the country can deal with this virus.
20 somethings wanting a shag and a holiday? Get a grip.
Except beware the law of unintended consequences. ‘lada, lads! The government are paying 500 a week if you’ve got covid!’
It does come into play but there is also relativity. Would it even register on the pandemic spending spaf-o-meter which has a scale working on Dido and or a Cummings worth of wasted money?
every voxpop piece to camera about someone’s angst about covid, it’s nearly always driven by ego and fundamentally about the self rather than society and how the country can deal with this virus.
Its also driven by everyones own stress and anxiety about covid its stopping them from having a little more compassion and understanding for others. The psychologist classic everyones stress buckets are full.
I've said this on this thread already but after 40 years of various governments all promoting neoliberalism and the advancement of the individual, it's no surprise that people when faced with essentially an existential crisis they have no understanding of how to behave following some society benefitting rules as opposed to their own desires and wishes
Just seen the vaccine advert aimed at the BAME communities.
Hope it does the job of exposing the dangerous sh*t posted online etc. and convinced people to have the vaccine.
I thought it was pretty well measured and obviously used influential people from these communities to get the message across.👍
Hope it does the job of exposing the dangerous sh*t posted online etc. and convinced people to have the vaccine.
I genuinely hadn't seen much anti vax crap in my social media bubble, but suddenly been a surge on comments on the local BBC news feed and councils Covid posts. A few I've challenged have had posts removed or deleted them, and I've reported the blatant lies.
I get that you can wonder how the vaccine got approved so much quicker than normal, I don't understand how you can be clever enough to have noticed that difference but to not find or understand the explanations.
Except beware the law of unintended consequences. ‘lada, lads! The government are paying 500 a week if you’ve got covid!’
It does come into play but there is also relativity. Would it even register on the pandemic spending spaf-o-meter which has a scale working on Dido and or a Cummings worth of wasted money?
It’s not so much the cost but rather the people deliberately infecting themselves and then receiving more than their salary to sit on their arse on the PlayStation for two weeks
It’s not so much the cost but rather the people deliberately infecting themselves
Pretty sure that's the unintended consequence implied by the law of them.
See also Vaccination Passports cross referenced with Black Markets.
Proper T+T – see batfinks Aus example from a few days ago is going to be completely unacheivable here.
I agree, and that was my point I think. We have a bloody good quarantine - and it works - JUST, and only for small infection numbers and when supported by a well managed and effective track and trace system. Victoria have managed to bollocks it up twice (no blame there.... it's hard).
Without test and trace, quarantine's effectiveness will almost not be worth it's burden IMO.
20 somethings wanting a shag and a holiday?
Just to keep the age stuff out of it there's a load of older folks wanting a holiday (plus some colleagues) and sod the consequences. I know I'm taking bookings and enquiries from them. The inability to consider the consequences is staggering.
See also the terminal stage 4 cancer sufferer moaning that he's stuck in Madeira as Portugese territory is on the red list. Why did he head out for a holiday in December while still requiring regular chemotherapy? If you choose and it goes wrong suck it up and live (or not) with it.
I’m sure they’ll find some nebulous wording in the contracts that conclusively declare UK plc the champions
I have a suspicion that any EU forced reallocation will, after Blohard announcing excess stocks being sent to poorer countries, will be painted as the EU stealing vaccines from the worlds poor.
Heading into a second covid spring you have to hope some lessons have been learnt
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/how-the-beach-super-spreader-myth-can-inform-uks-future-covid-response?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2_ysOqUjoMLgxCMN8zA97k-WGG7Cao9k6uiX8FZHHtOiq5LFtm2xM_AXw#Echobox=1613722352
It’s not so much the cost but rather the people deliberately infecting themselves and then receiving more than their salary to sit on their arse on the PlayStation for two weeks
I guess that's why you could make it 80% of salary.
Enough to convince it should be done.
Not enough to make it the preferable option.
Fair enough about the beach thing, although with track and trace the shambles it is, one wonders whether it is even capable of detecting outdoor spread between strangers.
Even if your beach towel is a few yards away from the next one, it seems counterintuitive that hundreds of people sharing public toilet facilities for the day are at low risk of transmission. Perhaps it's just hard to isolate your beach trip from all the other noise - the chances are that people who get ill after being on a busy beach have also been to indoor venues - pubs, restaurants, supermarkets, and generally mixing more.
It's a bit like the 'virtually no transmission among schoolchildren' thing. Sure, you hadn't detected any, but you weren't looking or testing for it either. When they finally did have a look, turns out there was plenty.
I suppose it's preparing beach resorts for this year's scrum, given that no-one will be able to go abroad.
...but after 40 years of various governments all promoting neoliberalism and the advancement of the individual, it’s no surprise that people when faced with essentially an existential crisis they have no understanding of how to behave...
well said
If outdoor transmission is low risk (not zero risk) it makes complete sense to "open up" the out doors as much as possible through the rest of the year, once prevalence is low enough, as a much needed release valve.
Martin the point with the beach thing is that cases didn't rise after these events nothing to do with track and trace really.
Reading the Guardian article, all I could find was this quote from the epidemiologist chap:
“There were no outbreaks linked to public beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach, ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge.”
You're right though, I'd have expected local case rates among those in hospitality etc serving the beachgoers to rise, and they didn't, which is great.
But if people who go to the beach return to hundreds of different towns after the day, get ill a week later, no-where is going to suddenly shoot up in terms of rates, and it is always going to be tough to point the finger at the beach trip as a source.
Realistically, the risk of an outbreak has to be minimal compared with an indoor venue - you might infect another person on the beach towel next door over the course of few hours, but the chance of delivering sufficient viral dose to multiple people has to be extremely low. The main risk has to be shared facilities, not the beach itself, and in preparation for a summer where beaches have to be open for the public, we should be investing in ways to boost cleanliness - more toilets, more cleaning teams.
You’re right though, I’d have expected local case rates among those in hospitality etc serving the beachgoers to rise, and they didn’t, which is great.
expect that didn't really happen either i remember there was a stat kicking around about infection rates in hospitality and it was crazy low only a few percent. Feel like the bulk of transmission has to have always been around people mixing at home. Even the BLM protests in the summer didn't create a significant increase in transmission
Feel like the bulk of transmission has to have always been around people mixing at home.Even the BLM protests in the summer didn’t create a significant increase in transmission
Absolutely - and that's also the easiest to gather evidence for.
The risk from crowd protests like BLM is always harder to quantify - there was a decent mask adherence that I saw, a lot of younger participants, so less transmission maybe, and more asymptomatic/less severe illness.
It's always tough when a group of people from different places gather for a few hours, but then disappear off to their separate communities. You're just not going to register an outbreak in the same way.
It's the old absence of evidence not evidence of absence thing.
The main risk has to be shared facilities, not the beach itself, and in preparation for a summer where beaches have to be open for the public, we should be investing in ways to boost cleanliness – more toilets, more cleaning teams.
But those things weren't in place last summer, and it made no difference to the infection rates. Most infections occur indoors, remember; lock down is primarily about smoothing the impact on healthcare services, reducing the infection rate was a secondary (albeit welcome) side effect.
Indeed... a year ago, when we knew far less, and had far fewer tools to use... the measures were aimed at making sure the fire fighters could get to all the worst of the fires... that doesn't mean that we shouldn't now be trying to avoid more fires... as we roll out free fire extinguishers to the entire adult population.
If outdoor transmission is low risk (not zero risk) it makes complete sense to “open up” the out doors as much as possible through the rest of the year, once prevalence is low enough, as a much needed release valve.
Yes I agree - based on what I see on social media people are getting highly frustrated in Wales with such minimal changes being announced today despite numbers being lower than previously stated thresholds. Seems like just letting people drive to beauty spots would be an easy win.
Data confirming a lack of a Covid spike even within the communities inundated last summer has been around for a few months now, pretty sure there was a BBC reality check on it. Outdoor infection risk has always been thought to be low, assuming basic social distancing, which aerial photos indicated was being done.
All the beach/BLM publicity last year was just a very effective smokescreen for the failures of track and trace, and set the tone of blaming the public for the government's failures as the second wave unfolded.
The public are not responsible for nearly 120,000 Covid deaths, in the same way that Good Old Boris is not responsible for our successful vaccine delivery system.
Everyone needs reminding of that. Constantly.
receiving more than their salary to sit on their arse on the PlayStation for two weeks
Or alternatively finishing up in ITU with a tube into their airway for 10 days or more, then having a FaceTime call with their families shortly before the machines are turned off and the tubes removed for them to die.
Sitting on their arse playing video games affects neither the quality of your nor my lives. £500 to get drones away from the workplace seems a fair exchange. We're not all wired the same and to expect everyone to be the same is unrealistic and a bit creepy too.
This is what worries me about the months ahead… if we stick to the idea that getting on top of the death rate is enough. It is essential, and bloody welcome, but it should not be the only thing informing policy and behaviour…
https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1362775056158457858?s=21
@TiRed … I asked a while back of you know how the living ill, and those dying well after 28 days, are being counted? Seen any studies? ONS doing anything?
I asked a while back of you know how the living ill, and those dying well after 28 days, are being counted?
Stats are published for death within 28 days of a positive test, but also death can be mentioned on the certificate at anytime thereafter. The headline figure has been the first, but the ONS data is looking at both.
the following is coded for analysis:
COVID-19 (U07.1, U07.2)
Deaths involving COVID-19 (any mention on the death certificate)
of which, deaths due to COVID-19 (underlying cause)
Re:Beaches.
We haven’t seen any cases of beach transmission over here, although errr.... we do have a bit more UV than you.
I agree that stopping people from going to the beach is actually about stopping people from going to beach towns/villages, and making a point about social distancing
It's wonderful news for some families that they will be able to visit family members in care homes.
🤞
It’s wonderful news for some families that they will be able to visit family members in care homes.
It is, but I'd be a lot happier if this wonderful news was announced on Monday rather than dribbled out via leaks over the weekend so they can be tested out
Agreed but that's just how it's done nowadays. It's good news for some families, let's not dilute that.
Too late for mine though unfortunately. The MIL gave up at the end of December due to the isolation even within the home. Every hospital visit required another 10 days solitary and each one sapped her will and vitality.
Our government are guilty of geronticide and I hope that we can hold them to account in the near future.
Our government are guilty of geronticide and I hope that we can hold them to account in the near future.
To be fair, their murderous carelessness hasn't just killed the elderly.
Here comes summer!
In what way? Other than the relentless passage of time.
Don’t take up poetry, or song writing, please.
Looks like I’ve got a busy few months then!💉💉
Not if your syringes are filled with blood you're not!
That’s the super secret Bill Gates conspiracy world domination plan slipping through the matrix filter. They need to take blood out to fit the microchips in.
Obvs
It's not blood, it's Tizer
Here comes summer!
I have a ten quid bet with my partner i wont get a vaccine this year... im so conflicted i want my tenner!
Mmm… Tizer.
So, now the plan is for most adults to be vaccinated by the summer (and all before we get to the school summer holidays in England) will tomorrow’s rollback plan take that into account? I’m thinking hospitality and UK tourism… will they be given the nod that Summer is go… with the caveat that they will be kept mostly closed ‘till then?
Jnr turns 18 in July - be handy if he got jabbed before uni 🤞
With the ongoing children testing of vaccines I think we will vaccinate all secondary kids before next school year, then an autumn campaign of mutation boosters.
With the latest news it’s a bit bizarre my shift was cancelled today at Brighton due lack of bookings. My Thursday shift we only had 400, with a 3000 capacity.
If they want to accelerate they need to :
1. Sort the vaccine supply certainty and communicate it with more time to book in patients,
2. Sort out the staff recruitment issues.
3. Better communication/planning between NHS & St John Ambulance in terms of getting volunteers into more centres. We can only work where the NHS invite us in and PHE authorise it.
Hmm, just been Googling when I might get the vaccine, even at 49 (50 in May) predictions still seem to be the Autumn which is somewhat at odds with Boris's latest bollocks.
That's your second jab isn't it? I think he'll be referring to the 1st. Which sounds better as a headline.
Edit, just checked mine and my second jab is "forecast" to be August. I'm 43, Scotland
I’d suggest The predictors haven’t caught up with Boris’ latest promises.
The predictors go on current rate (and current uptake), not by whatever future plans there are.
Based on what Dan says, we have the staff and centres, do we have the vaccine and the organisation to achieve it?
“There were no outbreaks linked to public beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach, ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge.”
Probably a super-naive question, but how do you actually catch Covid (or any virus, I suppose)? Is it sufficient to be unlucky and inhale a single particle (what's the right expression?) of virus, or do you have to inhale quite a few at more or less the same time?
If it's the former, then if you stay long enough on the beach, it's gonna happen. But in the second case, it is likely to be safe outside barring very bad luck.
Any comments from people with real knowledge ? 🙂
The moderna vaccine comes online in April. We’ve got a lot of AZ & Pfizer ordered, so hopefully. A few more fridge temp vaccines coming soon too.
I believe you need a certain load to actually catch it.
Nobody (sensible) has said you CANT catch it outdoors, but the risks are hugely reduced so as to not be a significant factor.
I believe you need a certain load to actually catch it.
Nobody (sensible) has said you CANT catch it outdoors, but the risks are hugely reduced so as to not be a significant factor.
That's been my understanding from what I've read on here and elsewhere. The viral load possibly affects how badly ill you might get? Do the new variants require less load to infect you?
Hmmm, not qualified to comment but anybody that is, please do!
Ok just seen that New Scientist has published an explainer, so panic over!
My understanding is that the current mutant strains bind easier at the ACE2 receptors, so less virus is required for you to catch it. This also explains it having a greater spread in kids who have less ACE 2 receptors prior to puberty.
William haig calling for restrictions to be lifted after the over 50s have been vaccinated. Spoken like a 59 year-old man who will have had his jab by then...
Tosser..
On sat I received my vaccination appointment for later this week, galloway, 48yrs old and no health issues apart from spms, to be honest I could name loads of folk who should get the vaccination before me as I don't leave the house and see no-one so if I could, id give it to someone who needs it.
You've been given it for a reason. Don't worry about it.
Yep - get it in your arm - more the merrier!
I'm a bit worried by the - mostly red top press who seem to have quickly jumped to the irresponsible conclusion of:
a) All vaccinations will be delivered before August and
b) Vaccinces proven to massively reduce transmission
...equate to "pandemic is over! Yeah ice creams and kebabs on the beaches!"
This makes me concerned that Lockdown 4 is coming in September....
Seems legit ^,