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So, assuming an R number of 1.0, and a vaccine of 70% efficacy; if we were all able to review the vaccine immediately (say, via chemtrails) would the R number become 0.3?
@dantsw Put up to show 'we are doing something, look'.
With no staff other than those requisitioned from the referring hospitals they were never going to be used as warehouses unless things are terrible. Then we can expect on harassed nurse to 20 patients and a mortality rate that will look positively medieval.
The saving pennies to give pounds to their pet projects for the last 10 years is going to bite hard.
At least according to the ususal right wing stooges and aided by censorship of press reporting
And amplified by my MP, who spends his days retweeting Alison Pearson and self styled 'I do the numbers' accounts with line graphs that are missing data.
would the R number become 0.3?
No. Because the effect of the vaccines on transmission is not known. The null hypothesis is that they only reduce an individual’s propensity to develop a symptomatic infection. Those individuals may still be infectious but to a lesser extent. Studying the effects open transmission is a population level experiment not a 30k clinical trial.
I hope they do reduce transmission and it would be surprising if they did not. But protection of the individual, with subsequent reduction in healthcare burden, is what we will deliver by vaccination in the first instance.
eulach - thank you for clarifying.
I get my (mis)information from a close relative who has lived in Switzerland since 1963 and my 2 Swiss cousins.
Indeed they haven't had any lock down, but believe me they have been having a normal life (apart from wearing Masks everywhere while out and about, hand washing and social distancing). I worry about them constantly, even though you have a very small population.
What’s going on with the Nightingale hospitals? Are they being used?
Our local Dragon Heart (as they’re known in Wales) has been decommissioned in favour of a smaller semi-temp expansion of the local major Hospital.
One of my mates was/is working on it, they started at a crazy pace, not rushed but unlimited OT for every able body etc, they still shut down for 2 weeks at Xmas though, NHS trust has gone a bit cold on it.
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for. I’m trying to avoid hyperbole, but based on my Wife’s experience in work they never had the staff for them and frankly little effort was made in the Summer to up-skill staff or recruit former medics with ITU experience. My Wife has been asked to work on a COVID ward / DH a couple of times, she’s a Community based wound specialist, she hasn’t worked in a hospital for years.
I think at best they were going to be used to house patients who are recovering from COVID, but more likely they were going to be used if the NHS was completely overwhelmed to keep those in the highest risk categories comfortable, most would have died.
The Ox/AZ vaccine being given single dose to as many as possible, then a second after 12 weeks seems sensible to me. Any experts with a contrary viewpoint?
Marvellous.
https://twitter.com/TheDailyMao/status/1344098622888022016
The Ox/AZ vaccine being given single dose to as many as possible, then a second after 12 weeks seems sensible to me
Seems sensible given the situation we're in. My only concern is that it's hard to put out a message that one dose protects you enough to justify delaying the second dose and then expect everyone to turn up for their booster.
Just watched the vaccine briefing, once again the press failed to address some key questions to the panel.
The efficacy of AZ vaccine was quoted at 70% after 21 days for a single dose, but what would have been interesting is the data for the 30% who did develop covid, i.e. what proportion of these had mild, severe illness or died. It’s the reduction in death or very severe disease which we should be looking at. Has anyone seen this data?
Info I read suggested the second dose is for longer term immunity rather than better.
Woops.
I've heard that a patient in Israel got the equivalent to about 5 doses because the Pfizer vaccine isn't in it's final form - the nurse used the entire vial. Doubt that this would cause an issue with the patient, but it's slightly amusing to me that a company like Pfizer is getting such wild filling results.
The Ox/AZ vaccine being given single dose to as many as possible, then a second after 12 weeks seems sensible to me. Any experts with a contrary viewpoint?
I suspected they wouldn’t do that, just because Tony Blair called for it last week ha ha.
It seems one of those ‘least worse’ solutions to me. The roll out here in Wales had been pretty slow compared to England because we don’t have the infrastructure for the Pfizer vaccine, I noticed that David Lammy was rightfully saying that 1 in 2000 people in England were catching COVID every day recently, in Wales it’s been 1 in 1000! We really need an emergency deployment here, and frustratingly most of the plans that have been in place for months haven’t been put into action yet because they either can’t get the vaccines quick enough or they can’t store it.
The diluent doesn't look to be supplied with the pfizer multidose vials either, so that will be another logistical/error point for countries with poorer health care.
That welsh graph takes some explaining.
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for.
Exeter became a hub of cancer treatments and scans.
Patients who used it said it was much better quicker and easier to use than the RD&E.
Who would have thought that small dedicated units would work so well?
There was some publicity about receiving their first covid patient but it has been very quiet since.
Next they will come up with the idea of small convalescent hospitals where patients in recovery can go.
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for. I’m trying to avoid hyperbole, but based on my Wife’s experience in work they never had the staff for them and frankly little effort was made in the Summer to up-skill staff or recruit former medics with ITU experience. My Wife has been asked to work on a COVID ward / DH a couple of times, she’s a Community based wound specialist, she hasn’t worked in a hospital for years.
Identical comments have been made by my partner. They have barely enough staff to cover hospitals. They've each been asked to do a month in a "covid ward".
Similar to what you said. My believe is the Nightingale hospitals were overflow facilities in case this pandemic ended up being worse than it was (also a PR move without a doubt).
I don't think it was a PR move... it was just copying the practices that became essential in Spain and Italy early in the year/pandemic... we avoided the worst of that failure of capacity (just)... and then we had half a year to get ready for the second inevitable wave that would hit when the NHS is at its most stretched, in winter... did we do what's necessary to prepare...? Friends and family who are in NHS roles in different bits of the UK suggest not.
So the consensus is that we're about to watch chaos unfold then?
Q2 2021 = SNAFUBAR?
FWIW the equivalent hospital in Glasgow has also been used for a number of other treatments since it was commissioned.
Watching the MHRA presser, apparently they have decided that it wasn’t the half/full doses that gave the increase in efficacy, but delaying the second jab to 12 weeks.
Maybe this pandemic has made me far too cynical.
I think they where spun far too eagerly in the media... the way they were presented invites justifiable cynicism. Being ready with overflow field hospitals was shown to be necessary by the countries hit hard before us though... they were a sensible, if oversold, precaution... don't you think?
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for.
I agree.
Let’s just wait and see what’s happening with the Nightingale hospitals and staffing in the coming weeks....
I think they where spun far too eagerly in the media… the way they were presented invites justifiable cynicism. Being ready with overflow field hospitals was shown to be necessary by the countries hit hard before us though… they were a sensible, if oversold, precaution… don’t you think?
I think they were necessary (I kind of touched on it before), I also think it was an excellent chance for the government to show preparedness and being proactive. On the other hand, the preparedness at every other level, seemed completely insufficient, given that there were other countries in Europe (and also outside) from which they could have applied the "lessons learnt".
Announcement on tiers at 3pm.
Matt Hancock denies the London Nightingale is being decommissioned. No doubt that is semantics.
No. Because the effect of the vaccines on transmission is not known. The null hypothesis is that they only reduce an individual’s propensity to develop a symptomatic infection.
Which nicely illustrates the idiocy of null hypothesis significance testing, because I doubt there is a single epidemiologist on the planet who truly believes that.
Unlike most other vaccine trials, Oxford did not control for time between doses. The others did and it is in their label. So the Oxford vaccine has more flexibility. I have no idea why they decided on that course of action. But the label you get for use is determined by the study you conducted.
Agencies are primarily about protection and public safety. Efficacy is a relatively recent thing. Up to 1963 you could make any claim you Wanted. All the FDA cared about was safety. That’s not true not of course, but they still always consider safety first.
Which nicely illustrates the idiocy of null hypothesis significance testing,
Said the Bayesian 😉
Statistics does not tell you know, only the confidence with which you know it. I agree with the sentiment, but what you can claim is a different legal kettle of fish. And companies have paid some of the largest ever fines (billions) for playing fast and loose with those claims!
Hancock’s speech in the HoC seems to be suggesting that the Pfizer vaccine dosing is also changing to 12 weeks for 2nd dose.
Edit: Nicola Sturgeon just confirmed this in the Scottish Parliament.
Both vaccines 2nd dose now 12 weeks after 1st dose
Well everyone who thinks rationally is at least close to Bayesian 🙂
But the important point is that, in answer to the previous question, the R number probably would reduce substantially, it could possibly be either higher or lower than 0.3, but no-one would actually expect it to stay at 1. There is as yet no strong observational evidence to show this, but it would be very unusual for the vaccine to not have this sort of effect.
but it would be very unusual for the vaccine to not have this sort of effect.
I want to agree. But that Oxford vaccine was pretty poor compared to the mRNA vaccines. Perhaps enough to offset the increased transmission of the new strain.
Stuck in a traffic queue, everyone is a Bayesian.
The outdoor Festive 500 riders around Southampton will be rejoicing, they can ride in pancake flat New Forest from tomorrow.
IOW changing to tier 4 too after having such low positive test numbers through most of the pandemic.
I noticed that David Lammy was rightfully saying that 1 in 2000 people in England were catching COVID every day recently, in Wales it’s been 1 in 1000
Why is it so high in Wales (relatively speaking), and why haven't their tighter restrictions had the expected effect?
Hancock said this morning that we've got 100 million Oxford doses and 30 million Pfizer, so enough to give two doses to the entire population. But it's not is it? I assume you can't mix and match the vaccines!?
The tier restrictions are irrelevant if people ignore them.
Why is it so high in Wales (relatively speaking), and why haven’t their tighter restrictions had the expected effect?
They haven’t been much tighter and hardly anyone has stuck to them
We were put into tier 4 on the 20th til Jan 4th. Do we know if that has been extended ? Am I getting ready to open the shop or decorate the kitchen?
Can't see anything on the news.
I assume you can’t mix and match the vaccines!?
I assume not but will defer to someone knowledgeable on such matters. I do wonder when 'these' become available privately if there is any harm in doubling up so in essence having the AZ one via the NHS then having the Pfizer one on top done privately.
981 deaths today. That's the (official) record, is it not?
Another 50K cases and 981 deaths today! The cases from the Xmas day mass mixing still won’t have have filtered through.
Think it will get pretty ugly in the next few weeks.
981 deaths today. That’s the (official) record, is it not?
I thought we’d nudged just over 1k in the first peak, but maybe that got adjusted down when they introduced the 28 day rule.
The deaths have been relatively low over Xmas so could be partly a bit of catch up in reporting.
and yet we continue with the tier micro management nonsense.
And the secondary schools issue punted back a week or so. I imagine reality, about both levels of infection and no doubt the achievability of their mass testing initiative, may well have set in by the 11th/18th though.
Why is it so high in Wales (relatively speaking), and why haven’t their tighter restrictions had the expected effect?
Apparently we’re genetically predisposed to be unable to socially distance, or something like that. A councillor said that it was on our DNA to be ‘close’ or something.
Honestly though, there are areas of Wales, the South Wales valleys mostly where cynicism is like a religion.
The deaths for today are just a reporting catch-up, however. The increase in cases has been largely among younger people hence not quite such an impact on health (at least deaths). Just as in the summer. This probably won't last for ever. Just as in the autumn...
So when would the mass exodus from London out to other areas, taking the new strain with them.. Plus
Mixing of households across generations over 3 day's of xmas... Plus
Boxing day sale deniers and Londoners returning, reach the hospitals?
2nd through 5th Jan allows 9 days from pick up, to needing medical intervention.
I wrote a doomsday list. Just in case i am unlucky and do catch it. Bank accounts, savings, mtg. Pensions, will location, insurance details.
Living alone this is a worst possible outcome thing but would make it so much easier for anyone trying to sort through my financials if i am not around.
Germany reported over 1,000 deaths today so it looks like most of Europe is now pretty ****ed.
It’s been really depressing to see pretty much everyone we know in our neighbourhood completely ignoring any distancing / mask / home visit guidance for the last few weeks.
Honestly though, there are areas of Wales, the South Wales valleys mostly where cynicism is like a religion.
Funnily enough, the ex mining communities up the valleys here are the exact same Pjay.
It’s been really depressing to see pretty much everyone we know in our neighbourhood completely ignoring any distancing / mask / home visit guidance for the last few weeks.
The goodwill of the the population is ebbing. It was bound to happen, deaths on the news is someone else's problem even if we/they know someone who's affected. And when I see blatant gatherings and parties with no repercussions it seems drastically unfair that I can't have a completely socially distanced walk in the next county with the wife.
The goodwill of the the population is ebbing
It’ll be back when the cold hard facts hit in two weeks time. All cause mortality for week 51 was 14% above baseline, largely due to increasing baseline and relatively static deaths from lockdown. You’ll need to wait four weeks to see the real signal feeding in.
Finally six months after I suggested it, schools will be tested regularly. A long time coming.
Doubling time of two weeks isn’t as bad as it feels. But london and the South looks terrible.
And when they go back to school, the children still won't need to wear a mask in the classroom...............
One of the few bits of sense that came out of the governments mouth in March was the public only having a limited capacity for lockdowns.
And when they go back to school, the children still won’t need to wear a mask in the classroom……………
And as soon as they are out the door they will be all grouped together ,then creating a scrum at the bus stop ,then squashed together on a bus.
It's bloody stupid ,close the schools and while you are at it... SHUT THE ****ING GARDEN CENTRES.
the public only having a limited capacity for lockdowns.
Maybe. What is clear is that much of the public don’t understand the tier approach.
And the new STAY AT HOME tier means nothing once schools open. We’ve not heard the last on that I’m afraid, we’ll be kicking that can one week at a time, as predicted.
Not sure about the goodwill returning, and it's clear certain parts of the population are in full denial. Combine that with the fact that for people not in the south east panic bubble, the North West for example, things are no different to the last six months, it's been continuous. Figures for my borough are less than half the national average and falling.
No. Because the effect of the vaccines on transmission is not known. The null hypothesis is that they only reduce an individual’s propensity to develop a symptomatic infection.
When will we know the effect on transmission? I presume we'll only see a measurable effect when large numbers of people who are likely to spread get it.
It will be fine schools are safe they keep saying it and there hasn't been a single person infected in a school in the last week.
Johnson presser, he stated non exam years delayed until AT LEAST 18 Jan.......
When will we know the effect on transmission?
Nothing before Easter would be a moderately educated guess. The new variant has an R under Tier 3 of say 1.25-1.5. I can’t see a way out until vaccination has led to perhaps 33% coverage. Then we might expect to see a drop on transmission that takes R comfortably below unity if the vaccine is having an effect. This is of course confounded with policy changes such as Tier 4.
Have they published the list showing which primary schools are going to be delayed going back anywhere yet?
Yes, on sky news
Most of London, Essex, Kent, plus Hastings, Rother & some of Herts
Hancock said this morning that we’ve got 100 million Oxford doses and 30 million Pfizer
Got, or have in the supply chain?
so enough to give two doses to the entire population. But it’s not is it? I assume you can’t mix and match the vaccines!?
It doesn't make any difference. You still have the same number of doses. If you can't mix you plan for people to receive 2 doses of the same one.
Warning Barnard Castle Eye Test content.
Before Xmas my mum who is a severe asthmatic and lives alone was very ill with a chest infection, hospital visit, drama, not covid, less drama. I went up to Kiddi to look after her then bought her down to stay with us as she couldnt manage on her own, I missed the last few days of term at school, mrs anagallis finished early as shes part time and son skipped the last two days. We didnt want to potentially expose her to covid. On monday son goes back, as does mrs anagallis, what I'm doing I havent clue but thats another issue. Now mum is better will still dont want her exposed to our school spreaders so the sensible thing would seem to take her home and with a load of shopping stocked up. But that breaks tier 4 rules...but, well as Cummings showed they are more guidelines than rules arent they? What would stw do?
What would stw do?
I would use my common sense, which in this instance sounds like taking her home. Assuming of course she's not going to start partying as soon as she gets there, or go and visit loads of people.
What would stw do?
Berate anyone who breaks the rules (but quietly do so themself in a way that suits them without mentioning it).
Honestly I'd just follow through on your plan, do what's right for you and yours as long as common sense says it isn't affecting anyone else.
Assuming of course she’s not going to start partying as soon as she gets there, or go and visit loads of people.
All she does is walk the dog once a day.
Tier four allows travel for caring responsibilities, I don’t see how this falls outside that.
Honestly though, there are areas of Wales, the South Wales valleys mostly where cynicism is like a religion.
Having worked in that part of the world during the early 80's I can't think why this would be with a Conservative Government in charge.
I would class that as carer duties which you are allowed to travel for. It's up to you whether you deem moving your mum a sensible idea but I don't see any glaring issues with your plan. I'm currently travelling to my parent's house every 4-5 days to do some housework for them, get some shopping in their cupboards and take the dog for a long walk. They're 40 miles away but it is entirely within the rules to do so. I've had a visit from their local PCSO after someone reported me being there and have also had to go through a police checkpoint that was looking for people heading into the Brecon Beacons, both times they assured me I wasn't breaking any rules.
Berate anyone who breaks the rules (but quietly do so themself in a way that suits them without mentioning it)
and don't forget when questioned about rule breaks claim you haven't broken a single one since the start of lockdown.
Crossing the streams...
Marvellous.
with reference to the insight of RogerHelmerMEP. I more interested in him being MEP, didn't we stop having MEPs about 11 months ago. Guess some people just haven't accepted the results.
Back on topic
All she does is walk the dog once a day.
Not exactly high risk then. Wouldn't the bubbling rules apply?
Come Easter, if the vaccination programme goes well, they'll lift restrictions I imagine.
At that point it's going to rip through the population like wild fire. Less people will die for sure, but those under 50 are going to be at far greater risk of getting it then than they are now.
Still trying to figure out if as an asthma sufferer I'll get a dose of the vaccine. Asthma uk say they have been advised by dep of health that non severe sufferers will be in group 6, but that doesnt tie in with anything they have ever published.
I have my fingers crossed as I really don't fancy taking my chances with the virus.
Now mum is better will still dont want her exposed to our school spreaders so the sensible thing would seem to take her home and with a load of shopping stocked up.
Absolutely do that. Why would you not?
At that point it’s going to rip through the population like wild fire.
Restrictions will lift, behaviours will change at Easter. The “advice” will continue into the Autumn. Adherence to advice will drop right off, and the result may well be exactly what you describe. Prepare to be extra careful this summer, for sure.
Edit: for a personal note, my son has, according to Diabetes UK, the same risk as regarding Covid19 as a 57 year old man. Once you start looking at who “needs” the vaccine, and how many people that is in total, I have zero faith that this government won’t remove restrictions too soon, while many are still awaiting their turn for a vaccine. They’ll be desperate by then to get us down the shops, or madly cramming for exams we haven’t been properly prepared for and shouldn’t be sitting, or in Wetherspoons drinking a cocktail named after our tee-total good time chancellor.
Finish my 10 day isolation tonight midnight. That has got to be the worst christmas "holiday" I've ever had. What a waste of time off work.
Just catching up with the PM conference. I see a new 1600 band has appeared on the map, the last one I saw was 800 as top banding!
Staying home seems the way to go tomorrow night. I wonder if the intellectually challenged will get the message.
I wonder if the intellectually challenged will get the message.
Or the very bright, but young, fit and healthy.
This is an excellent thread on Twitter, I recommend going and reading it all…
https://twitter.com/sophierunning/status/1344348413891112961?s=21
https://twitter.com/sophierunning/status/1344349069775433728?s=21