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They can catch up with a summer school or something.
I agree schools probably shouldn't go back - locally the secondary schools are home schooling at least a week for none exam years - but catching up with a summer school is unlikely. Teachers are still working even if schools are closed, they won't be doing (even more) extra in the summer.
What are we thinking about current infection levels and the return to schools in Jan?
The opposite of whatever Boris says. I personally think it is unlikely before half term. The frequency of the variant is increasing in all regions, but clearly the South has a head start. The others will catch up due to natural selection.
We are absolutely ****ed with this new variant and now that the vaccine is in play we should lock down firmly including closing schools for a month or so. That will be enough to (a) vaccinate most of the extremely vulnerable and (b) maybe get infection numbers down a bit too (though this is challenging with the new variant).
It was different last year when there was no exit plan, because lockdown isn't sustainable indefinitely. Now we have the possibility of rapid vaccination to bring this under control - at least in terms of deaths (~10% coverage would have a big effect) if we can't suppress it more comprehensively through vaccine-induced herd immunity (which will take ~80% coverage).
I'm not planning on going anywhere for a month, I may have to shop once or twice if I can't get deliveries, but I won't meet anyone else outside my bubble. I can't solve this problem myself but at least I can avoid contributing to it.
Going on past form, especially if the super mutant version is that contagious - I'm still not convinced it isn't just piggybacking on an already surging pandemic' but regardless of the why or how, its surging. -
Then schools will be going back right up until the last minute before they u-turn.
Although they might just try & wing it and then after 2 weeks of school transmission shut down too late
I can’t solve this problem myself but at least I can avoid contributing to it.
Been my approach so far. So far we don't think we've caught it or spread it, despite two teenagers surrounded by it at school.
Vaccination is where it's at as our "World Beating" Track and Trace just isn't. Someone in the household received a notification text today for a potential contact on 18 December! Only 8 days late.
We stop isolating on Tuesday having been shopping and delivering presents to friends and family (masked and socially distanced as necessary) in the run up to Christmas.
Truly, truly woeful Dido. Have a golf clap.
Even if you want to do your bit, the administration are doing their level best to **** it up at every turn. They seem to be unable to set up any brand new computerised system without it going wrong and being hugely expensive.
We are absolutely **** with this new variant and now that the vaccine is in play we should lock down firmly including closing schools for a month or so. That will be enough to (a) vaccinate most of the extremely vulnerable and (b) maybe get infection numbers down a bit too (though this is challenging with the new variant).
It was different last year when there was no exit plan, because lockdown isn’t sustainable indefinitely. Now we have the possibility of rapid vaccination to bring this under control – at least in terms of deaths (~10% coverage would have a big effect) if we can’t suppress it more comprehensively through vaccine-induced herd immunity (which will take ~80% coverage).
I’m not planning on going anywhere for a month, I may have to shop once or twice if I can’t get deliveries, but I won’t meet anyone else outside my bubble. I can’t solve this problem myself but at least I can avoid contributing to it.
Why the hell isn't there a like button on this forum? This ^ x 1000. And get the Oxford vaccine approved and deployed ASAP
FFS. Just had the Covid-19 app notification telling me that I need to self-isolate for six days.
I guess karma really does work.
@thecaptain and I are in total agreement on every point. We contained the spread in March with impressive restriction and effective but unsustainable control. It is not a given that even Tier 4 controls the spread of this strain. I think a full lockdown wil have the same effect as it did before. Watch admissions in the South this week. Policy will be based on that.
Schools won’t be going back based on current data.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London
Mike “epidemic effectively over” Yeadon is very quiet. As has been prof Gupta on the role of immunity on the current spread. The null hypothesis (very limited immunity) really has not been rejected.
Tier 4 may just be enough as the rise in kent is slowing.
But schools will go back as there will be mass testing so they will be no virus there. Well that's what teachers will be told.
They will then close in a week or two as there will be so many positive results
That's my prediction anyway.
The chart for mechanical incubation is concerning.
Am i right in thinking that full ventilation is used less now treatment has improved or is cpap classed under that title?
They count cpap. I think.
What are the planned return-to-school dates for England and Wales?
5th for us in Bedfordshire.
Cheers thecaptain i did wonder
5th for us in Bedfordshire.
Will that be by boat? Here's hoping your house is in a high and dry spot.
Haha, we are in a fine area.
where I go swimming in the river is bad, you can't see where the banks are
Used to live in a new development by the river in Bedford, 25y ago before flooding was so high on the agenda. Glad to be half-way up a hill now - at least a leaky roof doesn't dump sewage in your lounge 🙂
Been my approach so far. So far we don’t think we’ve caught it or spread it, despite two teenagers surrounded by it at school.
Sure, but whereas last spring/summer I was thinking, what's a sustainable way to manage low-contact life on an indefinite basis, I'm now thinking what is the bare minimum we can manage for the next month or so. Even if "full lockdown" is enough to suppress the new variant (which I wouldn't like to bet on), I can't see us doing more than a couple of months of it, so this is likely to get resolved one way or the other quite quickly. I'd prefer it if vaccination played the bigger role. It's excusable to be overwhelmed by a very contagious and dangerous disease before the vaccine arrived, but it would be pretty tragic to fail now we are within sight of beating it. There are still many lives at stake, a lot more than we've lost so far if we get it wrong.
It's a great shame there is no-one in the govt capable of the necessary leadership.
It’s a great shame there is no-one in the govt capable of the necessary leadership
If I had a pound for every time I've thought in the last 4 years, but especially the last year, I could have funded the vaccine research myself 🙂
It’s a great shame there is no-one in the govt capable of the necessary leadership.
Unfortunately they also seem to have the opposition running scared of calling for delays to schools returning. I'd also be a lot happier if there wasn't a Brexit vote this week - there's just too much of a risk of throwing the headbangers bone.
ONS survey data vs case numbers.... not sure if this has been covered before?
Comparing the ONS data for say Scotland (just less than 1%) with the 7 day case rate (140/100k) suggests actual cases are 7 times higher than those captured by testing.... i.e. there must be a LOT of asymptomatic cases. What am I missing?
ONS random survey is the underlying truth. The reported testing means that only 1/7 people who are positive are being tested. Whether they are aSymptomatic or not is moot. But they aren’t being tested. People report to hospital with symptoms not test results.
If the vaccines need to be updated (like the flu vaccine), how simple will that be and will there need to be more trials?
IIRC the OAZ vaccine was due for approval tomorrow? Can't recall where I read that.
how simple will that be and will there need to be more trials?
Updating the mRNA vaccine is straightforward. The genetic sequence is replaced and then made the same way. Personally, I think approval based on animal data and perhaps a small, rapid phase 1 study in volunteers to confirm antibody response. Much faster than Phase 3 studies.
They can catch up with a summer school or something.
Come to my flat and tell my upstairs neighbour she has to summer school kids after what she's been through the past few months. As for all the home schooling chats i think middle class single track is forgetting there are some people who are incapable of home schooling.
....and updating the Oxford one? I watched an interview with the leader of the Imperial/GSK(?) team - he expected his vaccine to be ready later in 2021 and to be mainly used as a booster/update vaccine.
Thanks TiRed, that's good news
That's what's so cool about the RNA vaccines, that they can be updated for new strains so rapidly.
Home schooling is tough even if you have a computer, the time,, knows ledge, patience, broadband etc,
Millions of kids dunt have all those things at home, there's no doubt that shutting schools leaves them behind.
Weekly screening in schools would be a better strategy, if it could be pulled off
The only problem will be weekly screening using lateral flow tests will miss half the cases. In my part of Kent/Sussex the schools have large catchments so train/bus journeys are common, with mixing across different schools on the transport.
@grahamt1980
Hi flow CPAP is being used in preference to invasive ventilation now.
Updating the mRNA vaccine is straightforward.
The world we live in eh, this sort of thing would have been science fiction in the late 80's early 90's.
Weekly screening in schools would be a better strategy, if it could be pulled off
Dont worry teachers have had two weeks to sort this out, what could possibly go wrong!
How are you supposed to full time home school at the same time as full time working from home?
I think that’s why the schools have stayed open in part.
It’s simply not possible to homeschool children and hold a job working from home. Age depending you can’t do both.
If your kid is 15 then it’s probably fine but if they are 6 then no chance.
Also if parents are not working as a result of home schooling it only adds to the decline of the economy.
Keeping them open spreads the virus.
Not an easy to resolve situation all round!
How are you supposed to full time home school at the same time as full time working from home?
I'm not even working from home, I'm back in work 4 days a week, my wife however is, so we can't have the kids in as key workers 😱
No but a government that had the trust and cooperation of the population would help.....
Literally the only good thing about this is that I’ve been in fairly close contact with someone I don’t like, so with any luck he’s going to get a phone call over the next couple of days ruining his New Year.
The season of goodwill going well I see 😉
Could be worse ...
An 82-year-old man hospitalized for COVID-19 in California was beaten to death last week by a fellow patient angered by the elderly man’s praying in their shared hospital room, authorities said. Jesse Martinez, 37, was arrested and charged with elder abuse and murder with a hate crime enhancement in connection to the Dec. 17 killing at Antelope Valley Hospital in Lancaster, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office said Wednesday.
Martinez and the victim did not know one another before they were hospitalized in the same room for issues related to the coronavirus. When his roommate started to pray, Martinez allegedly became upset and struck him with an oxygen tank.
As for all the home schooling chats i think middle class single track is forgetting there are some people who are incapable of home schooling.
Spot on! Some children from lower income families will suffer with home schooling due lack of access to technology and parents who can't work at home and who struggled at school themselves.
This has to be weighed up against the benefits of protecting the elderly and vulnerable.
The local primary school have said it'll take until mid-2022 to fully catch up from shutting the school during the first lockdown.
Doing another stint of school closures will add at least another year to that. Are all the people calling for school closures really happy to effectively write off a generation or two of education?
Are all the people calling for school closures really happy to effectively write off a generation or two of education?
They will be compared against their same age peers so it wont really matter. They socio economic aspect is very valid though
I wouldn’t be so confident in the ONS analysis. The raw numbers are useful but their modelling is terrible. They have withdrawn part of their analysis in recent weeks. I’ve been pointing that out since August but they didn’t give a shit until Peston noticed a few weeks ago.
Home schooling is tough even if you have a computer, the time,, knows ledge, patience, broadband etc,
Millions of kids dunt have all those things at home, there’s no doubt that shutting schools leaves them behind.
Huge numbers of kids wouldn't have their parents at home. Not sure how that'd work for primary age children.
The local primary school have said it’ll take until mid-2022 to fully catch up from shutting the school during the first lockdown.
Doing another stint of school closures will add at least another year to that. Are all the people calling for school closures really happy to effectively write off a generation or two of education?
To paraphrase Tired, we are looking to find the least worst option, there are no good choices. No-ones happy about that as an option, but we're pretty much out of options I think, to get this under some sort of control before the vaccines kick in to assist.
They will be compared against their same age peers so it wont really matter. They socio economic aspect is very valid though
This, and I think A-A knows what he's on about. I think describing it as writing off two generations is a bit OTT.
What it will do is widen the gap still further between the educational/social mobility haves and have nots. The kids who were already going to struggle will have even less chance, and numbers in that group will double at least. Level up that, you Tory ****s.
We are very fortunate - kids are bright and keen 14 & 17 who can stay on top of their school work without being chased and monitored by us. Also helps that our director is home schooling two primary school kids, so the message from the top is "do what you have to do, fit in any work you can manage around that". Plus we are finding a lot of our customers are in the same boat as well.
Doing another stint of school closures will add at least another year to that. Are all the people calling for school closures really happy to effectively write off a generation or two of education?
Would it be a crazy idea to just write off 2020/21 in academic terms and extend every kids schooling by one year? Either across the board or on an individual basis. People who've been unable to study at home effectively would be approximately a year behind their peers. The most obvious solution to that would be access to another year of education.
I type that without having given a moments thought to the practicality of application 🙂 But I know people who went back to school in their 40s and 50s to make up for schooling they'd missed out on in childhood. A generation isn't written off if you put the means in place to put right whats gone wrong.
The only issue is you will increase the size of every secondary school by 1/7
and the university's will have an empty year.
They will be compared against their same age peers so it wont really matter. They socio economic aspect is very valid though
It isn't an comparable experience within age groups is it though? Even ignoring socio economic impacts the disparity between regions is huge, I work remotely from all of my colleagues (midlands vs south coast) and the majority of their kids have been in school full time since September while my daughter has been sent home once for one week and three times for 14 days, the first couple of times remote learning consisted of getting sent a powerpoint to read yourself or being emailed a worksheet, it got better letter on but the experience of in class teaching of my colleagues kids vs my daughter half the time aren't comparable.
An example is they are learning Macbeth, it was supposed to be finished by Christmas to move on to the next text but they have only got to Act 2 as so many kids couldn't access the resources from home while kids in other areas sitting the same GCSE will have already been taught the whole text.
Would it be a crazy idea to just write off 2020/21 in academic terms and extend every kids schooling by one year?
Logistically it's huge, as others have already said. Offering it to those who want or need it on an individual basis might be less crazy.
My lad is in his A level year, and is already worried that having missed out on nearly a years "proper" schooling but currently expected to do exams, he'll be competing for uni places with some of last year's students who only missed a term at most, were awarded grades, and then deferred for a variety of reasons.
We have a few uni folk on here, would be interested to hear their views on how that is being considered.
They will be compared against their same age peers so it wont really matter. They socio economic aspect is very valid though
It will definately matter in 5, 10 or 20 years time when compared to others who were not disadvantaged by this.
Offering it to those who want or need it on an individual basis might be less crazy.
Makes sense except it will send the hang wringers off on one as it will widen the gap further between those with supportive parents and some personal drive and those without either.
As time goes on the effects of this year on educational progress will be diluted by FE/HE/jobs/experience etc. Who cares about your GCSE after 5 years of in job experience?
As time goes on the effects of this year on educational progress will be diluted by FE/HE/jobs/experience etc. Who cares about your GCSE after 5 years of in job experience?
The people who don't have degrees will be relying on solid A Level/Highers and GCSE/Standard Grades. The first thing most employers look at is qualifications.
Been a while since I've been at school but i can safely say if if you had removed any of my 6 secondary shool years i wouldnt have been any worse off. Back in the day I learned nothing throughout the entire year, it was all learned in the week before the exams.
As time goes on the effects of this year on educational progress will be diluted by FE/HE/jobs/experience etc. Who cares about your GCSE after 5 years of in job experience?
I don't think matter as soon as you get your first job to be honest. Similar to a degree, once you get your first job no-one looks past that on your cv (obviously slightly different if the degree is vocational)
The people who don’t have degrees will be relying on solid A Level/Highers and GCSE/Standard Grades. The first thing most employers look at is qualifications.
After your first job/5 years, they really don't.
The exception will be those not getting the minimum required for maths and English. There will be more of them certainly, and more demand for catch up courses
They have withdrawn part of their analysis in recent weeks.
Splined interpolation looked reasonable, but extrapolation might not be. REACT has gone a little cold, although their double peak did seem to pick up the south east strain. Maybe. It their model extrapolated that everywhere, which was not correct.
Projection for lagged cases seems the most robust now. It wasn’t in the summer. But we have the madness that nhs regions are not ons regions, so there’s a fair bit of data bashing going on.
It isn’t an comparable experience within age groups is it though?
No it very much isnt which is why a blanket UK wide apprach and exams cancelled would be best.
It will definately matter in 5, 10 or 20 years time when compared to others who were not disadvantaged by this.
It wont though, they could still all get the grades they deserve and will still be able to function as adults in the work place and or move on to the next level of education. Not knowing what a fronted adverbial is at 11 or what Hookes Law is at 16 wont hold them back long term.
The people who don’t have degrees will be relying on solid A Level/Highers and GCSE/Standard Grades
If .gov.uk pulled their fingers out from up their arseholes it shouldnt matter, you will still get the grades you deserve.
It’s simply not possible to homeschool children and hold a job working from home. Age depending you can’t do both.
Not true. It’s possible to do both.... badly. And involves working until midnight or beyond every night to catch up. First world problems and all that, I guess. Happy new year 😬 !
As time goes on the effects of this year on educational progress will be diluted by FE/HE/jobs/experience etc. Who cares about your GCSE after 5 years of in job experience?
You do realise they need to get to that point first and most do that through FE, HE and get first jobs based on that initial education experience? After 10 years of work no one even asks what I got in my BA but I needed a decent school / college education to get to that point.
Essex numbers up to 1 in 70, if i can do long division without any qualifications. Local hospital got overwhelmed sat/sun. 6 hrs + queues in ambos holding outside waiting to Discharge patients. This is Hampshire, then added waits for 999 calls leading to no shows.
If we can vaccinate 1mill a month, and 1mill a month catch it via transmission. 2 mill a month then surely 5 months down the road the virus will be hitting people coverd by vaccination and immunity and tge hospitalisation rates will start to fall away. Till then, hands, face and hoover a packet of pringles on the escalator out of Tesco, having touched loads of contact areas and not disinfected in any way..
Some people just can't help themselves can they?
Hundreds left Verbier after discovery of new Covid variant despite order to self-isolate
Sounds exactly what happened the first time round. Except that this time we're not meant to be going on foreign travel right now, let alone skiing holidays then sneaking out of another country's lockdown. Hopefully they'll get found and fined, either by us or the Swiss.
Some people just can’t help themselves can they?
Hopefully they’ll get found and fined, either by us or the Swiss.
if they are stupid enough to let in holiday makers to have holidays then they can't have much complaint.
then they can’t have much complaint.
Not really, the complaint is that they and S African visitors were told explicitly that they would be required to isolate for 14d. I suspect the Swiss are offended by the lack of rule adherence. I would also think that another 14d in a hotel in Verbier would not be so bad. Must be more into it than the headlines.
I suspect the Swiss are offended by the lack of rule adherence.
oh please, come to disney world, though can't leave the hotel room for 2 weeks.
Except that this time we’re not meant to be going on foreign travel right now,
You'd think so but even if you are in a tier 3 area and aren't even allowed to travel to the neighboring tier 2 area except for work or education you can jump on a jet quite legally.
Not really, the complaint is that they and S African visitors were told explicitly that they would be required to isolate for 14d.
If they were told before they left then absolutely no sympathy and throw the book at them. If they were told after they got to Switzerland then although not condoning their actions I can understand them being pissed off.
Re education, the biggest issue is just lack of flexibility/capacity/resource, you can't just repeat a year as there's a new cohort arriving and nowhere to put them. And you certainly can't magically introduce enough flexibility to add topup/catchup courses in summer or to split years into "progressing well" "not progressing well" without a huge investment of time and effort, which would mostly have to be done by the same people who've been pushed too hard trying to get through this year. All good solutions if you have a magic wand, or a more robust and flexible and heavily resourced school and college system.
(there are some existing summer school and college access options which could probably be turned up on relatively short notice, I don't know the UK-wide picture there but I can think of several existing schemes that at the moment help handfuls of not-quite-managing pupils in later school years, that could be expanded much more easily than trying to create whole new options. Especially as they don't rely on school staff, which I suspect will be pretty much a fully used-up resource by summer)
One thing that I've not seen mentioned much is that a-level students have an extra option- 1st year entry into a 4 year degree in Scotland. It's not exactly the solution you'd design if you were starting from scratch, but it's a system that already exists and is well proven. I reckon it'll be a fantastic choice for good students who've just been set back a bit in their final year.
It's totally possible we'll see some unexpected benefits though- the UK school system like most is still pretty production line, in my old job at the university I used to speak all the time to kids who'd be best served by doing a year or two in college then articulating to university, but who wouldn't consider it because "college is for dafties or failures." or their parents were against it or all their friends were going to uni. But with a little bit of broken equilibrium maybe that'll shift. Sort of like how years out rose in popularity.
Oops. Can't count.
Pissed off yes, but there's no confusion or ambiguity here. They should have complied and then sought a solution, eg. get tests. I think I read they were also told they would be allowed to leave on approved travel plans where contact could be avoided or minimised. But some just legged it and then joked about it on social media. Wiggy von Trapps, for example.
Could you potentially delay the start of school for 5-year-olds for a year?
But what do you do the year after when you've got a load of 5 year olds AND a load of 6 year olds who need to do their first year of school?
You’d think so but even if you are in a tier 3 area and aren’t even allowed to travel to the neighboring tier 2 area except for work or education you can jump on a jet quite legally.
This isn't true. There are no travel restrictions in the English tier 3.
From www.gov.uk
Where possible, you should stay local and avoid travelling outside your local area, meaning your village or town, or part of a city. People should continue to travel for reasons such as work, education, medical attention or if they have caring responsibilities.
You can still travel to venues that are open, or for reasons such as work or education, but you should reduce the number of journeys you make wherever possible.
You should still avoid travelling outside your tier 3 area other than for the reasons such as those above.
Came for the epidemiology, stayed for the fronted adverbials.
Apparently taught in KS2 year 4 whatever that means..
Guy, aged 43 1/2
In all seriousness, are the kids being disrupted now actually learning more useful things about coping with life than they would be in a normal deskbound schooling?
Not sure. My nephew was moaning about home schooling whilst showing me his Lego hedwig on WhatsApp last night. He’s not a fan when I suggested school may not go back. His mother is the reception teacher at his primary school 😂
I have immense sympathy and respect for anyone trying to home school. We managed it for two weeks for one when he was between schools during a house move. To hold down a job at the same time. Not possible.
uponthedowns
That's just advice. There are no legal restrictions on travel in the English tier 3.
So the NHS is warning of a lack of resilience, basically a shortage of staff and/or beds for the current surge very shortly and the opening of schools in January is now openly being talked about by ministers as not a good idea.
How long before the xmas spread hits the figures and they wake up to how badly prepared we are for the next few months?
the opening of schools in January is now openly being talked about by ministers as not a good idea.
Who was this. Gove said it was all fine
Walked across central Manchester earlier and noticed that most of the windows of the Waterhouse pub (one of those Wetherspoons that tries to look like something else, near the town hall) had Covid-denying posters in them.
Absolute twuntery.
Who was this. Gove said it was all fine
Could you potentially delay the start of school for 5-year-olds for a year?
Some Tories had been proposing to up the age of school starting to 6 and getting rid of GCSE's, would seem like a good time to accelerate that plan if they were ever considering really doing it:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/08/tory-mps-back-ditching-gcse-exams-english-school-system-overhaul
Schools not reopening 1st u-turn of 2021?
Left to the last possible minute just to make life harder for teachers & parents, obvs
kimbers
Full Member
Schools not reopening 1st u-turn of 2021?
A safe bet at the moment but about a billion other options before then with this shower of clowns.
All of them bad* and many of them costing lives.
*The U turn resulting from being in yet another terrible situation.
Not enough staff. What a complete surprise.
