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Like I have said many times, the science is evolving.
Could it be that the science is just really slow? Vitamins C and D are proven to be good for other viral infections.
My wife would certainly load up on both before lighting up and stepping in front of that firing squad.
Could it be that the science is just really slow? Vitamins C and D are proven to be good for other viral infections
Probably just being rigorous and evidence based for a previously unseen virus. Just because something works on the flu or a cold or whatever doesn't mean it'll work on covid. That's why "the experts" are always so specific about their claims.
Partly a problem of funding trials of non or off-patent potential treatments- no commercial benefit, so not much decent data available.
Science can be slow, no question on that.
I guess the issue is that people are looking at the more easily identifiable risk factors and mitigations.
with vitamins because it is something that we all will get to varying degrees, where a specific pharmaceutical intervention will be either you have it or you don't. I suspect the stats would be a challenge and the size of the groups would need to be massive to assign a significance.
Just a suspicion on that.
All being said both my wife and i are taking vitamin d in addition to multivitamins. As I figure it isn't going to hurt and might have a benefit.
MoreCashThanDash
But I do think a lot of people who are struggling with everything are lashing out. There are one or two people I’ve known on this forum for years, and who really seem to be having real issues at the moment from the tone and content of their posts.
Yes, I've noticed it too. In fact I think I've gone a little haywire myself on occasion. It's definitely understandable.
Knowing how tough life is for some of the forum members at the moment, even excluding Covid, is pretty humbling too.
Guardian reporting that the South African variety may be more resistant to vaccines. Any evidence for that, or more media scaremongering?
Scaremongering I bloody hope.😟
Yeah I hope it doesn't change effectiveness.
More concerning is that it seems to hit the young harder,which could have really bad implications for healthcare as it is the younger population driving infection rates.
Sh*t. This can't get much worse can it?!
I know January/February are going to be bloody terrible but it just couldn't get worse could it?
Ffs!
I suspect we will be in full lockdown again for several months shortly.
but I guess we will see what happens.
I'm starting to feel that I don't want my son going back to school just yet in Jan.
Participating, or just reading, this thread did change my opinions though, so don’t give up hope about shouting in supposed echo chambers.
That's reassuring to hear.
I've mentally written off doing anything from now until April at the earliest. We desperately need to have everyone at Tier 4 or a full lockdown from boxing day onwards, hospitals are pretty much at capacity and the way the figures are rising they could be full nationally by New Year. I certainly plan on only doing three things for the next few months: essential shopping, looking after my parents and exercise. Sod going round the Sales or any form of leisure with others, the risks are just too much.
But I do think a lot of people who are struggling with everything are lashing out. There are one or two people I’ve known on this forum for years, and who really seem to be having real issues at the moment from the tone and content of their posts.
I'm definitely am in that camp, trying to keep it under control and do try to think about what I type before I post anything but with attacks from so many different directions seemingly constantly it is very hard. Other people have it worse then me so how lots of you are holding it together I' don't know but it is heartening to know that we haven't all gone to pot!
Guardian reporting that the South African variety may be more resistant to vaccines. Any evidence for that, or more media scaremongering?
Way too early to tell.
You aren’t the only one…
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/at-risk-groups-to-receive-free-winter-supply-of-vitamin-d
Yes, I was aware of that, however from what I understand the dose they are giving is very low, really would need 10x that for several months to build up a good level of vit D.
Also I understand NICE has recently concluded vitD doesn’t have an effect, despite some pretty compelling evidence from several studies. From the icu stats there does appear to be an increase in obese patients as we move to the winter and vitD seems a plausible explanation so maybe it would add weight to the argument if the link could be confirmed. VitD is fat soluble so if you lose weight you’d likely boost your circulating blood levels considerably.
I’ve mentally written off doing anything from now until April at the earliest.
Me too, expecting June realistically, probably September before anything really feels settled, and then we'll see what happens with universities next year.
I'd love a proper lockdown to try and nip it in the bud. But Jnr has a driving test booked on 14th January, can we have a full lockdown, schools closed but driving lessons and tests allowed? 🤔
Reading plenty that suggests schools will not be back in January. I think that’s what we should be preparing for now. Will share some links tomorrow when I’ve checked out the writers a bit more.
I’d love a proper lockdown to try and nip it in the bud.
Does what we did last april count as a proper lockdown ? Or are you suggesting something more severe?
Does what we did last april count as a proper lockdown ? Or are you suggesting something more severe?
What we did last time worked, but wasn't as strict as some other countries imposed. I would sooner have shorter but stricter measures if it would be more effective. I'm not an expert but would have no issues if we shut borders apart from freight transport, had stricter rules around exercise duration and distance from home etc to limit opportunities for people to bend the rules.
But rules are useless if they can't/won't be enforced.
And I'm assuming adequate government financial support.
I’d love a proper lockdown to try and nip it in the bud. But Jnr has a driving test booked on 14th January, can we have a full lockdown, schools closed but driving lessons and tests allowed?
Hope so as I've got my HGV Class 2 booked for 15-18th January!
Still think a proper lockdown is needed though, I can delay it if need be.
Way too early to tell.
This. The experiments are to use serum from vaccinated subjects and test the neutralising titer (basically serial dilutions) against the strain of interest to infect cells in vitro. For the mRNA vaccines, your body made some protein according to the genetic instructions. It folded up those proteins into some shape that may or may not accurately mimic the spikes on the surface of the virus. Then your body recognised this foreign protein and mounted an immune response. I hope that the conformation is sufficiently flexible that a broad range of antibodies are made across multiple sites. on the protein.
One of those sites is definitely strongly immunogenic - because the Lilly and Regeneron antibodies, taken from recovered patients, target one of the mutated sites and have been approved as therapeutics. But vaccines have a polyclonal response. So hopefully some redundancy and some protection. I'll bet it doesn't go from 95% to nil.
Yeah - lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
JP
What we did last time worked
It did, and in Scotland we had petty much eliminated it for a few months. If we could get it down to that level again we'd be grand..
But my fear is if this new variant pushes up the r rate by 0.4 then we'd still be over 1 even with those restrictions
jjprestidge
Free Member
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
What would you have done instead, genuine question here?
lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
In the Spring? Yes. It did. Even if we started it too late, and finished with it too soon. That was quite some time ago though. Much easier to argue that the “tiers” tried since don’t do enough. I would agree that the second recent lock downs in England and Wales were not nearly effective enough though, if that’s what you’re referring to.
so don’t give up hope about shouting in supposed echo chambers.
I don't worry about trying to change opinions. I try and explain the science as clearly as possible. When positions are understood with clarity (and what is also not known), I believe decisions more or less make themselves. Take the case of future lockdown. The evidence that this new strain is replacing others is robust - strains missing the S-gene due to deletion at a site have grown in the South and East to replace others. At the same time cases and admissions in that region are increasing at rates faster than elsewhere.
Whether this strain infects younger people more easily, is more pathogenic, has a higher viral load, is prevalent across Europe, is still not clear. But the evidence for enhanced spread is robust.
lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
There is some balance of contacts and transmission. The first lockdown showed that a hard lockdown with closed schools was effective in limiting spread and shrinking transmission. Unpalatable and economically awful, but effective. We thought that the tiers might balance schools remaining open and reasonable social and economic contacts. A more tranmissible strain resets the location of that balance. Whether schools can remain open faced with such a shift in balance remains to be seen. It's not a given. In fact I am doubtful.
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
But almost certainly in a better place than if we hadn’t.
recent lock downs in England and Wales were not nearly effective enough
Don't know about that, the rates have come down alot in the North West and now started to rise again slowly. Agree the tiers don't work to reduce the rate. Contrast that with the south though who went into tier 2, that was a grade A mistake they are now paying for, and the rest of us soon as well.
I think a full lock down including school closures is a given for the New Year, this testing in schools bollox is not going to be ready in time and I'm not sure what it's going to achieve, by the time the kids test positive the damage will already be done. Total smoke screen to make the government look like it's doing something and a justification to stick to their policy of keeping schools open.
Here is a LSHTM preprint on the new variant.
Here are the key implications from the abstract:
"Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools,and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely tooccur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden."
Still digesting it and be good to see what the more informed think, but TL;DR - I'm not expecting schools back (except perhaps exam years) until after Feb half-term at the earliest.
Total smoke screen to make the government look like it’s doing something and a justification to stick to their policy of keeping schools open.
It was the right policy for September, not January.
Still digesting it and be good to see what the more informed think
That was one of the things I was reading fenlander… not checked it out enough yet to have felt confident posting it though… shared enough half baked stuff in this thread before… was waiting to know more.
Context level: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
It’s almost straight after the lockdown people could mix again, travel, offices reopen, pubs too and holiday abroad if you wanted to. Still I’m sure it’s not that but because lockdown didn’t work.
You really do have to walk in a man's moccasins.
It's a fair point that those with elderly relatives are more invested in saving the oldies, and if you've got immunocompromised, sub-60 loved ones, you're thinking hold up, what about mine, **** the others. If you've got kids you are worried about them missing an education, if you haven't you're wondering why they are still at school and spreading like plague rats.
I'm right in the middle - I don't want my 81 year old Mum to die (she's bright as a button and is still 'economically active' as an exam marker) - but i do want my equally bright 17 year old son to get a proper education.
Are you asking me to choose one over the other?
Is that really a choice we are asking people to make?
Because just like the ^thought experiment above, that is something we could do if we wish to - we could just let anyone presenting with Covid take their chances alone; we could even shepherd them into the unmanned Nightingale Hospitals to die without any intervention whatsoever. We could abandon them entirely and just let them get busy dying while we, the select, get on with living.
We could do that as we remember that Cummings and his ilk are all about Eugenics - if you're not productive you're dispensable.
I'd like to think that we are better than that.
I assume everyone calling for full national lockdown is comfortable working from home? Just remember not everyone is.
I can't be furloughed or get universal credit so if the shop I'm working in doesn't re open after the Scottish 3 weeks I'm screwed
To have all this 'strict Lockdowns' everyone is talking about we need to support EVERYONE which isn't happening
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
It did the stats are there; the basic rule: If you don't meet it can't spread. Unfortunately that is against a constant quest to get back to normal as fast as possible.
we need to support EVERYONE which isn’t happening
I agree.
I’m right in the middle – I don’t want my 81 year old Mum to die (she’s bright as a button and is still ‘economically active’ as an exam marker) – but i do want my equally bright 17 year old son to get a proper education.
There is a middle road though which allows a final year A level student to work from home for four to six weeks with an adjusted curriculum/final exam and not have their life blighted. My two kids are in their final year, but given that I'm in a relatively high risk group, I don't want their lives blighted with the serious illness, or death, of a parent.
Early reports about this variant, and the SA one (as yet not fully confirmed), suggest that it is not only more transmissible, but delivers a higher viral load in the process, potentially increasing the chance of severe illness in those receiving it.
There is only one option in my mind - a proper shutdown, starting before the New Year, nationwide, with schools out until half term. Leaving the other regions out of Tier 4 yesterday shows that this government appears utterly unable to learn from its mistakes. The new variant had a foothold in every region at least a week ago, and the rapid rise of cases is baked in already.
To have all this ‘strict Lockdowns’ everyone is talking about we need to support EVERYONE which isn’t happening
Which I did put in my post. There's an argument that earlier, shorter but stricter lockdowns would reduce the cost of the support needed, so it could be allocated properly, as well as reducing the overall economic impact. We missed the boat the first two times, the government doesn't have a great track record at learning from its mistakes.
We needed universal basic income
lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
Yawn. Go back to facebook. I'm not usually a fan of everyone agreeing on here, but at least we don't have the nonsense you see elsewhere about how the great british people will not accept lockdowns or rules or can't be relied upon to act in the interests of others. It's all bollocks, we could easily do what they have done in New Zealand, we just don't have the leaders with the courage and vision to implement it. Starmer needs to stop agreeing with Boris and start calling for what is necessary.
Starmer needs to stop agreeing with Boris and start calling for what is necessary.
I agree.
Although of course, he has been as regards timing of stricter measures. Johnson keeps laughing off what Starmer calls for one week... only to... eventually... introduce those measures himself far too late.
The BIG sticking point, is schools... where Labour have been FAR to reluctant to call for what is required... out of fear of falling into the "leftie teachers and their unions" trap... but they need to get over that and say what needs to happen. Most pupils should be at home in January.
@TiRed ... what are your thoughts on the CMMID report?
@TiRed … what are your thoughts on the CMMID report?
The most salient point in that paper is a plot of estimated R value vs proportion of S gene drop outs. Regions with higher gene drop out (presumed mutants with deletion of a key site) have higher transmission. This is a robust finding that is not dependent on modelling. It’s validated by other analyses and is the reason for current intervention.
The other work on scenarios are based on a model that, whilst validated by past data, has assumptions that may or may not be true prediction intervals are wide for a model so well-calibrated. That makes it a numerical educated guess. Considering the time spent working on it, it’s impressive work.
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now
Yes, it really did.
Speaking about Scotland only, we were down to single figure daily recorded new infections, if we'd had the ability to do as NZ did, close borders, stop international travel, contract traced the very low infections, then I believe we'd be in the same position as they are.
However that didn't/couldn't happen.
Agreed. We went 40 days without a death, single figure positives despite increased testing, and had pretty much eliminated it.
I remember at the time there was talk of closing the border to England and sturgeon was accused of nationalism by the tories...
Lots of lockdown options assessed here.
Page 10 has the comparison table.
It's interesting reading the pro lockdown/anti lockdown sentiment on here. Remember that the severity of the required lockdown is wholly as a consequence of ten years of underfunding the NHS, driving frontline staff away from the service, undermining the ones that remained and acting weeks too late in initiating the first lockdown. As well as sacking off the preparations for a pandemic two years prior.
Had the above not happened we would still have needed lockdowns but perhaps an awful lot less severe.
Martin hutch, interesting. So schools closed makes it worse. I find that counter intuitive but... Well.... Maybe. Is need to read it thoroughly and ask lots of questions to be convinced. Either way, looks bad, if that model is any good
Good point airvent, sadly that's where we are.
The Reith Lectures 2020 on BBC Sounds are by Mark Carney (former head of the Bank of England so definitely not a wishy washy liberal like me). He argues quite strongly that the way the economy is structured is broken - Carney argues that society has come to embody Oscar Wilde’s old aphorism: “knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing" and that's screwing up our response to Covid and climate change.
Hopefully when the government changes we'll be able to start to sort out the bigger mess.
So schools closed makes it worse.
Look at total deaths rather than peak. 5,000 fewer with Tier 4+schools closed. I admit I'm not sure what the mechanism is for more restrictions meaning a slightly higher peak. Oh, I see that now - a bigger rebound effect post lockdown in some areas.
Even so, I find that relatively small difference a bit counterintuitive, as one of their key assumptions seems to be increased susceptibility among children (p29).
Obviously, not peer-reviewed yet, either.
Pretty clear in terms of the vital nature of swiftly increasing vaccine coverage as the only way of avoiding peak 3 in spring/summer 2021.
So schools closed makes it worse. I find that counter intuitive
The answer was on the bottom of the table on P10...
Peak ICU requirement and peak deaths are higher under the “Tier 4, schools closed” than under the “Tier 4, schools open” scenario because closing schools shifts the peak later in East of England, South East, and London NHS regions, so that it coincides with the projected peak in other NHS regions.
...I suspected because London and the SE is so badly affected now in terms of numbers of cases.
It does show positive news though, that as the politicians are saying we'll be in a better place by Easter. The "shape" of the virus annually appears to be about the same with all number calming down in the summer - we hope then that mass vaccination avoids the waves that we are seeing now in Winter 2021.
@airvent I previous showed that countries in Europe that have historically done well in protecting their citizens from excess winter mortality, had a much better response for COVID-19. It speaks to preparedness.
I don’t see any alternatives to contact restrictions, but I think a clearer message, unified implementation across the nations, coupled with proper economic support for all, would have improved the sense of national purpose. I firmly believe that people want to do the right thing.
If one thing changes after this, I would want it to be an appreciation that in healthcare, you get what you pay for. And we have not paid anywhere near enough.
proper economic support for all,
@TiRed Of course, I missed that but it is really important. Some people really can't afford to self isolate for weeks on end and the financial support has been woeful and very unfair (how come someone can be furloughed for months on 80% pay but someone who isnt furloughed has to work, gets sick and then gets £80 a week...).
I agree.
Has it been clarified yet if you can still carry the virus ‘post jab’ I’m a couple of years older than Mrs JJ55 and after a recent landmark birthday I’m now in a different age group which means I’m likely to receive a jab a few weeks or even months before she does. So will this mean that if I go out and start to live a near normal life again I could potentially bring home the virus and infect my wife?
Has it been clarified yet if you can still carry the virus ‘post jab’ I’m a couple of years older than Mrs JJ55 and after a recent landmark birthday I’m now in a different age group which means I’m likely to receive a jab a few weeks or even months before she does. So will this mean that if I go out and start to live a near normal life again I could potentially bring home the virus and infect my wife?
It’s not 100% effective so yes there’s a small risk certainly a much smaller risk then where you are now. You just having the jab does not mean a normal life, I’m sure you know we needs high percentage of the population.
Yes I saw the note about shifted peak. Still seems odd, delayed and lowered leak from London and se gives more time to prepare but I haven't read the paper so guess that extra mitigation like a further nightingale or three aren't considered. The maths may be accurate but hopefully we can still be informed by it and add in some further mitigation. Speeding up vaccinations for example.... But I assume we are competing with every other nation for the doses/flow of doses
It’s not 100% effective so yes there’s a small risk certainly a much smaller risk then where you are now. You just having the jab does not mean a normal life, I’m sure you know we needs high percentage of the population.
What will the position be for us ‘post jab’?
I'd guess no different, nothing should change for vaccinated people until sufficient numbers of the population have been vaccinated.
Has it been clarified yet if you can still carry the virus ‘post jab’
There is no published data on effects of transmission. The most obvious data will be within household attack rate (which is about 25% for a second infection). This will be being studied.
At the moment all one can assume is that a vaccinations only protects the person dosed from COVID-19 the infection and subsequent healthcare burden. I’m sure there will be c an effect, but the magnitude has not been measured.
Thanks TiRed for all you and the others have done to help us understand this pandemic throughout the year. You have certainly helped me to try and find a way though the morass created by the politicians.
TiRed
Full MemberThere is no published data on effects of transmission. The most obvious data will be within household attack rate (which is about 25% for a second infection). This will be being studied.
At the moment all one can assume is that a vaccinations only protects the person dosed from COVID-19 the infection and subsequent healthcare burden. I’m sure there will be c an effect, but the magnitude has not been measured.
Is this something you'd feel comfortable making an educated guess on?
You would have to think that reducing the numbers of infections due to vaccination would reduce the transmission.
it could happen in a couple of ways:
An infection could be prevented or cleared before viral expression and as a result viral release through talking, coughing etc which should reduce the chances of someone passing on the virus.
Or that viral infection does take place but the immune response only reduces the amount of time that someone is infectious
The one that wouldn't help transmission is if the vaccine prevents severe or mild disease by making it asymptomatic. As a result an infected person wouldn't know of the infection so could be out and about and infect more
I hope it is the first outcome but currently we don't know. I suspect it would be one of the first 2 options,but would take any of the 3 if we can get enough people vaccinated
Is this something you’d feel comfortable making an educated guess on?
mRNA will protect from transmission perhaps 75% would be good and even halving acceptable, but the Oxford vaccine will have a modest effect. All will prevent hospitalisations.
We have the bizarre situation where we are giving the wrong vaccine to the wrong people. The elderly should get the oxford vaccine for protection and the young the mRNA for transmission.
The preclinical behaviour of the oxford vaccine was nothing special. The mRNA vaccines have moved on clinical and biological science. They are that impressive.
Arse. So I thought I'd got away with it but just come down with a dry cough and sore throat exactly 14 days to the day after my exposure to a known Covid sufferer.
Self isolating and waiting for test results now. Fingers crossed that it's just a cold but not optimistic.
Literally the only good thing about this is that I've been in fairly close contact with someone I don't like, so with any luck he's going to get a phone call over the next couple of days ruining his New Year.
Mrs had same symptoms last week, was negative, fingers crossed for you flaperon.
She's a nurse, her dept has kept going throughout, they've not had a single positive from any of the staff. Bizarre.
Literally the only good thing about this is that I’ve been in fairly close contact with someone I don’t like, so with any luck he’s going to get a phone call over the next couple of days ruining his New Year.
The season of goodwill going well I see 😉
The season of goodwill going well I see 😉
Bah humbug etc ☃️ 😁
The Situationen in this Part of Germany is also getting quite critical. A good friend of mine is a student nurse and his ward have had an outbreak of Corona virus. So far 10 patients and 9 workers have tested positive. My friend had had close direct contact with two positive tested patients and he was tested yesterday. He still has to go to work until his test comes back because the hospital is so short staffed because so many are self isolating. Utter madness. 🥺
Happy socially-distanced Christmas from Tier 4. First non-attendance at midnight mass for more than 25 years.
We have the bizarre situation where we are giving the wrong vaccine to the wrong people. The elderly should get the oxford vaccine for protection and the young the mRNA for transmission.
Interesting. Not heard anyone observe that before. Tell us more… after Xmas. I’d substitute “those in public facing roles” for the more general “the young” though.
The elderly don’t spread the virus. They are end sufferers. Any vaccine that reduces their morbidity would be sufficient. The young and those in healthcare worker roles are spreaders and hence need a vaccine that has greater potential to limit spread. Hence the oxford vaccine is likely to be sufficient for the elderly for protection, but may not limit spread as effectively.
Frankly we need every dose of every approved vaccine out there and in someone's arm ASAP, young or old if we're ever going to get ahead of this pandemic
Mrs had same symptoms last week, was negative, fingers crossed for you flaperon.
Your magic fingers worked, got the negative result last night. 😁 Released from Covid-19 purgatory to spread my cold at leisure.
How long would it take to manufacture significant doses of this kind of therapy?
Typical dose is about a gramme per year based on potency and residency in the body.
So to dose the UK per year one needs 66 tonnes. A best-case cell line makes 10g/L and the reactors are up to 100,000L (none in the UK I believe, more typical is 20,000L). That would be 66 batches per year or more than one run per week. That’s not impossible but not a problem our cmc colleagues would want to have.
These antibodies were all isolated from people infected early on. Then the cells cloned and made in bio reactors. Everyone is looking at prophylaxis for a use. But the doses are probably about 100x higher than the vaccine (where humans are the bioreactor).
But if vaccines fail, there will be a way.
AZ antibody treatment -
Mrs_oab has weekly antibody infusions in order that she has any immune system at all. It's well proven for about 15 years now.
The difference is hers are harvested from blood, the AZ one is lab grown.
There's a discussion on one of her support groups about the AZ antibodies being added to the current products they use, as a way of every CVID patient both getting it quickly and as part of a trial.
I would. She is exactly the patient group these will be useful for. Her antibody dose is a LOT higher since it’s polyclonal. About 30x higher. Since she’s getting monthly infusions, the AZ dose would be a lot lower.
Interesting - MoaB, hopefully that happens.
Went for a walk today (to have a look at the flooding) had to return via a main road due to said flooding so busy with cars twas insane.
What are we thinking about current infection levels and the return to schools in Jan?
I'm getting increasingly twitchy at having our 5 year old go back based on the likely chance that the new strain may infect children more plus the infection rate being as high if not higher than the first lockdown.
any thoughts?
I dont think they should go back until the impact of this new variant is established. What's a few weeks of missed teaching when thousands of lives and jobs are at stake? They can catch up with a summer school or something.