The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

I know of 4 people with positive tests.

One died, one has just come out of hospital and another was symptomless (all from the same family)

....our local greengrocer was on a ventilator with it too. I believe he's actually home now but not exactly 'recovered'

Anyone who has posted on this thread Know anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 ?

Yes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52742519

Oh look, the great British public using their common sense, just as Iain Duncan Smith said.
(I know it's the same link as further up there ^^, just for reference).

but the longer this goes on the more people won’t have any job to go back to. Meanwhile huge numbers have forgotten the whole reason for the lockdown so whats the point in continuing.

True. But my concern is that a rush to get some back to work a few weeks earlier than was wise will result in the virus hanging around at levels that mean others can’t return to work for ages, if ever. Getting the staff of Tory sponsors (Wimpey etc) back to work last week may mean some in hospitality etc will be unemployed, as their work places have to stay closed longer. Also, the rush to get ‘back to normal’ has given people the message the ‘lockdown’ is over… agreed. Again, their behaviour may mean some industries will now stay closed long enough for more jobs to be lost.

Oh look, the great British public using their common sense, just as Iain Duncan Smith said.

Pretty sure it was very busy in Cornwall too judging by what friends that live there said.

Two factors made n. Devon worse. It’s a lot closer for a day trip from places without a beach & woolacombes decision to keep carparks closed caused carnage in the whole area.

https://twitter.com/barrytobebarry/status/1263128633935384583?s=20

I can’t think of anywhere I’d less rather be than in a crowded resort full of ignorant f@@@@@s right now.

I'm not sure Portie counts as a resort

Those porty pics are not representative. I walked past mid-day and it was fine. Folk about but lots of space. Most of the >2 people groups are families too.

There's also a certain question over people who live in remote/touristy areas who couldn't economically survive long term complaining about the "tourists" showing up. The whole "local health service will get overwhelmed" argument might well be a cover for an "us vs them" and this "our area" mentality for people who enjoy the benefits of intra-country movement... when it suits them.

Those portobello pics look like your typical weekend or day of nice weather. In that situation I can’t see how you can keep social distancing with how small it is.

I’ve just listened to my local news talking about care homes taking between 2 and 5 weeks to get CV test results back! 5 weeks!!

Then it clicked with me the disconnect between stats reported on the daily press conference and the graphs on gov.uk.

Today, they reported 2500 positive tests. Sounds a lot.

Then think about results taking 2-5 weeks in some cases.

GOV.UK CV page

The graph there shows positive tests by SPECIMEN DATE. It shows we are down to 500 new cases/day now.

Pretty sure it was very busy in Cornwall

maybe in parts. I surfed widemouth last night with maybe 20 in spread across the main beach  and black rock.  walked the coast path today around Trebarwith. Not quiet but certainly not rammed. Main car park was less than a quarter full but that doesn’t make headlines.

Anyone who has posted on this thread Know anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 ?

Yes. My gran and she died from it.

The graph there shows positive tests by SPECIMEN DATE. It shows we are down to 500 new cases/day now.

As it takes a number of days to get the results tests by specimen date will not give an accurate picture over the last few days as most of the tests taken in the last 24-48hrs will still be pending results. Also can’t believe results take 2-5 weeks, surely that is 2-5 days.

Pretty sure it was very busy in Cornwall

A lot of the pics I have seen in the media of “crowded” beaches/parks have clearly been shot with telephoto lenses which have the effect of bunching everything near and far close together, so making things look a lot more crowded than they actually are.

No, it was a quote from a care home owner that results took between 2 & 5 weeks!😳

Mudmuncher - my 500 positive tests was a projection of the line from its last accurate date on 13 March (have a look at the graph I linked and you’ll see 5-600 positive tests/day is accurate.)

https://stateofit.com/UKContactTracing/

South Devon beaches seemed to be pretty empty compared to some of the honey spots on the north coast.

The whole “local health service will get overwhelmed” argument might well be a cover for an “us vs them” and this “our area” mentality for people who enjoy the benefits of intra-country movement… when it suits them.

I've seen lots of pictures of 'idiots' taken at such an angle to look like they are crowded in to outdoor spaces with some fairly unpleasant commentary.

I can't help but feel that some people are using Covid-19 for some fairly extreme nimbyism/we dont like outsiders/us and them type nastiness.

I've been very fortunate in that we live somewhere fairly rural - so for the duration of lockdown I've spent a lot of time mooching around outdoors, enjoying the spring. It's been like a slighty weird holiday, to be honest.
Had I been cooped up in a city centre flat for two months, and the government (were I in England) then said I'm allowed to travel to exercise, you're damn right I'd be pootling off somewhere nice for some outdoor exercise and fresh air!

For balance, I did 50 miles of mountain biking in Calderdale last Sun which included getting back to Brighouse along the canal from Hebden Bridge, which is 15 miles (this section I used the road sometimes too as its very popular in places).
While there were plenty of people out and about enjoying a beautiful day I didn't see any groups that weren't family groups and I didn't see any big groups of mountain bikers either.

I did see lots of e-bikes though.

My little corner of Brighouse has been very well behaved, so I might be living in a little self contained bubble. The only obvious spreaders I've witnessed are large groups of teenage boys in the woods sharing weed.

Definitely alot more traffic though so they are going somewhere. The only shops I've been to are Toolstation and a big local Timber merchants and both were set up very safely for customers.

https://stateofit.com/UKContactTracing//blockquote >

Hmm so not much work to really fix it then 🙂

(Sneaky edit - Not being ironic .... )

I don’t think the developers have done that bad tbh within the issues of Bluetooth and not using the tracing api,(which is now being pushed out on iOS updates).

I’ll be interested to see the version using the tracing api.
Gonna be pretty code lite 🙂

 

Yes I agree with Dan, the headline figure of daily reported cases are actually spread across a huge timeframe, most are from the last 2 weeks but some go as far back as Feb. English confirmed cases have been below 1500 per day for some time and look on course for around 500 per day this week.
Is that the same system used in other countries though?

Note- The gov.uk graph only covers England as data isn't available for rest of UK.

I’ve seen lots of pictures of ‘idiots’ taken at such an angle to look like they are crowded in to outdoor spaces with some fairly unpleasant commentary

Remember that London park that was overwhelmed by 3000 people early in the lockdown? 'More Or Less' on R4 looked at the situation ( one of their team was there on the day having a run ) and ran the numbers - 3-4 people per acre, which confirmed the anecdotal report from the team member that it was quieter than normal. There's a few bits of bs in the media.

Currently only 4% of the daily results are positive.
We’re wasting a lot of that capacity.
A more targeted approach would be a lot more effective in reducing all cases.

I agree with you but can't help celebrating that low figure. The tests are already targetted to some degree in that suspected cases are tested even if there's currently little done to check every possible contact that person had.

4% positive is lower than the admittedly more targetted German and French testing systems were getting at the peak of the epedemic in areas with the lowest levels of new cases. I'll interpret it as most likely good news about the current levels of new infections - low.

The media are focussing on a few telephoto lens enhanced instances of crowding in the open air which is pretty low risk. In general though people have changed their habits for the better and even if lockdown is easing we aren't seeing the pre-lockdown conditions that lead to rapid spread - packed pubs and nightcubs, busy restaurants, crowded work places, packed public transport with no masks, packed mosques (churches are raely packed apart from a few evangelist churches), crowded schools.

Once again the media is contrarian - having told us for weeks that there was nothing to worry about when there was, they're now pointing a finger at the public when the public isn't taking huge risks and there's a lot less to worry about.

Looks like the police are busy sending people home - welcome to common sense Britain.

Who saw this coming? Oh everybody.

https://twitter.com/NewquayResponse/status/1263338388410728448

Or, we wait a bit until track trace and test is viable.

That sort of sense won't hit the timelines - it's all about the timelines. The Government has talked a good game but then complete go off plan in the delivery. Wasn't it all about only when the five tests are met then suddenly it's all about hitting the date - the most important one seems to be slaughter day the 4th of July. You'd have to marvel at the sense of opening up the whole country on a Saturday. It's a date that really settles the Guided by Science or Sunk by Spin argument. Hasn't anyone twigged Cummings already played the Independence Day card with Brexit? We will no doubt see Boris declare independence from the tyranny of the virus speech. I'd be for putting it back to the following Monday but seeing what happened with VE Day there would just be more mixed messaging spun out.

If the assumptions about reducing current infection rates are correct, it sounds great news. But with that kind of lag in test results, how the hell do we judge if the relaxation of lockdown and VE Day mixing have had an effect in order to consider further easing?

The graph there shows positive tests by SPECIMEN DATE. It shows we are down to 500 new cases/day now.

Thanks for pointing me at that, yes, there is a lag, but it's the most encouraging thing I've seen for ages and I'm clinging to it!

Indeed!! You can’t have a TTI strategy with 2 weeks for a test result.

Remember back at the start we were only testing 1-2000/day.

I’d rather we did 50k/day properly than splurge 100k tests poorly to meet an arbitrary target.

Looks like the police are busy sending people home – welcome to common sense Britain.

wish they’d do it a bit more in normal times. Cornwall is infested with the ‘van life’ crowd.

In Wales, we are still not meant to leave the house apart from for essentials and excerize and we are not meant to drive unless necessary so car parks are closed. When we went for a walk yesterday arvo, at my local beach there were about 40-50 cars parked on double-yellowed verges so people could go to the beach and sit around drinking cans. In terms of social distancing, between groups distances seemed compliant but the groups did not look in any way to be single households. Probably naive of me but I was a bit shocked as up until yesterday there were no cars and at most a handful of families actually walking on the beach whenever we've walked down.

wish they’d do it a bit more in normal times. Cornwall is infested with the ‘van life’ crowd.

Move then.

I don’t think the developers have done that bad tbh within the issues of Bluetooth and not using the tracing api,(which is now being pushed out on iOS updates).

Oh, that is true. But it is also the point. The obviously wrong decision was made at the outset. Coding around that decision is just people proving their smarts and wasting time. Not their time, our time.

'infested'? That's a bit Hatie Kockpins isn't it?

Science time!

Published in Cell, but explained here https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-hijacks-cells-in-unique-ways/

Basically SASR-COV-2 stops your body's immune system from releasing the stimulatory anti-viral signals (called interferons), but not the signal to bring in the heavy cellular artillery (cytokines) leading to inflammatory response. Interferons are the signals that give you the "flu-like symptoms". I didn't not have any temperature. I did have the cytokines.

Southampton hospital are testing inhaled interferon as a treatment with Synairgen

https://www.uhs.nhs.uk/AboutTheTrust/Newsandpublications/Latestnews/2020/March/Southampton-researchers-trial-inhaled-therapy-for-COVID-19.aspx

Very interesting. That sounds like quite a simple treatment for the serious cases?

wish they’d do it a bit more in normal times. Cornwall is infested with the ‘van life’ crowd.

Saving this for the answer to the next environmental thread where people ask why Brits feel the need to holiday abroad when we have lots of nice things at home.

Just give it a few years for the 4G (or 5G) netweork to catch up, when every "WFH" surfing enthusiast spends 6 months working in their vans at the beach with one eye on the surf line.

It’s WFA now 🙂

Oh, that is true. But it is also the point. The obviously wrong decision was made at the outset. Coding around that decision is just people proving their smarts and wasting time. Not their time, our time.

I’d blame the customer 🙂

But I’m not disagreeing,my initial thoughts were mmmhh battery Life’s gonna suck, which sorta renders it a bit useless.

The site is melting down, but Scottish govt. just uploaded their plans for phased return.

Summary of my area: Schools, early years and childcare - 4 phases of return, teachers can now use buildings, outdoor nurseries open next week, more childcare over summer, a blended/part time return from August 11th for schools, ey, university etc, finale phase no date set but basically good hygiene.

For recreation, more sports and recreation added from next week with a 'stay reasonably local please' request.

Work

Travel

my initial thoughts were mmmhh battery Life’s gonna suck, which sorta renders it a bit useless.

Also those that travel around a lot for work or pleasure, and/or do so on public transport - the ones most likely to benefit from such an app, are those least likely to have an opportunity for a mid-day recharge.