Forum menu
Weeksey still not getting that covid 19 is a population level problem!!
Don't be making assumptions for me, i compltely get it, hence why i asked a VERY specific question about mortality rates within a certain demographic. I didn't get into any other aspects of cross comtamination/infection because that wasn't related to my actual question.
Don't read into things stuff that simply doesn't exist.
Looking at those numbers for ethnicity, I still don’t understand why the government isn’t advising people to take vitamin D.
Because it's effects are marginal at the very best. It's unlikely to do anyone any harm though. Crack on.
There's an awful lot more going on with the bame numbers than just darker skin.
International comparisons aren’t to be encouraged anymore DrJ. Not sure why…
Running a filter (a 7 day weighted average) on daily fatalities:
UK - 303
Italy - 150
Spain - 92
Normalising that by million population head:
UK - 4.59 (per day per million)
Italy - 2.28
Spain - 1.39
We are lagging by nearly three weeks on that metric. New case numbers tell a similar story. I can't help thinking we are talking about opening up just a tickle bit too early.
I don't know how many people are need in our track and trace army, per single new case per day. Does anyone here know what the required ratio is?
I think to make a useful dent you're looking at 10-50 people tested per case, so however many people on the ground for the interviewing, chasing up, administering tests etc.
I think I read somewhere that China had 1800 teams of 5 on it in Wuhan? If the UK were to actually get the 18k people and organise them properly, then it could be a useful contribution - but as I said before, not enough to squash the disease by itself AIUI. And the current shambles is nothing.
There’s an awful lot more going on with the bame numbers than just darker skin.
As the report quoted further up there indicated.
NHS Scotland has recruited 2,000 for T&T. That'll be on top of however many current employees have been identified.
There's been a number of posts recently saying lockdown hasn't worked and infections aren't going down. If you look at worldometers then I can see why you'd get that impression as they plot the daily announcement of infections as though they're the date of those infections.
The government's Covid19 data page linked below plots infections by date of sample and the reduction is a virtually linear decline, the lockdown is definitely working
I don't think anyone is saying lockdown hasn't worked.
I think a lot of us feel that the numbers are not as low as we'd like to be ahead of any more relaxation of lockdown.
Science and Technology Committee Tuesday 19 May 2020
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/4f9e09bf-4119-4168-9f6b-7f8d0a4c899e
I've only a little way in but some really interesting detail so far.
It’s very age dependent too.
But is it causation or correlation? Yes autoimmunity reduces with age but older people on average are not in such good health as younger people. What if you compare healthy young middle aged and elderly?
The government’s Covid19 data page linked below plots infections by date of sample and the reduction is a virtually linear decline, the lockdown is definitely working
Do you trust government websites at this stage?
Where do Worldometer get their numbers from?
EDIT Worldometer are publishing figures from the govt twitter feed which gives 2412 cases for yesterday. The numbers on coronavirus.data.gov.uk are FAR lower, and yet still from the government. What gives? I mean I know the govt graph is subject to updates for the last few days as results come back, but even then that graph hasnt' seen 2,400 cases since 24th April, a day that Worldometer shows as over 5,000.
What gives?
User error?
I've just checked the two sites. The data is EXACTLEY THE SAME
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk
If Worldometers arnt using the Government data, where else are they getting it from?
Oh, the graph on the data.gov.uk is England only. FFS
There’s been a number of posts recently saying lockdown hasn’t worked and infections aren’t going down.
Infections and deaths are definitely down, nobody is saying otherwise?
As mentioned, I question whether the numbers are low enough to start talking track / trace / test with any degree of success.
If we open up without sufficient capacity to do the detective work on the new cases, it is tantamount to saying sod it, whoever dies, dies (or to paraphrase the delightful Mr Cummings, "some old people die, so what")
Or, we wait a bit until track trace and test is viable.
Which numbers though? This is my point, if people are basing their opinion on how the virus is progressing by the daily infections announcement in isolation, it's a totally different picture to the graph where those infections are plotted by sample date.
I agree that neither shows we should be lifting restrictions but I feel it's important to point out how the different ways of visualising the data can skew perception of where we are in the crisis
Science and Technology Committee Tuesday 19 May 2020
do they cite source?
(non- peer reviewed) data ive seen elsewhere says theres not much differnce
As mentioned, I question whether the numbers are low enough to start talking track / trace / test with any degree of success
At what level of daily cases would be the right time to start relaxing things?
(Let’s say a 7 day rolling average number)
Depends entirely on what looks manageable given size of track and trace, and how the new cases start increasing when we start loosening restrictions.
I admit, I actually don't know the answer.
In PMQs today Bojo stated the new TTI system was designed for 10kcases/day whereas we only have 2500/day now.
Errrrm, 2500 lab confirmed maybe. What about Asymptotic/self isolating cases not tested??
My question wasn’t really aimed at getting a number, as in reality nobody really knows what that number is.
It’s more a case that we have to start somewhere, so why not now?
It might turn out that the numbers are too big and it’s not effective yet, so it’s a case of waiting for the numbers to fall.
Or it could be the numbers area already low enough and it’s effective to drive down the numbers.
The thing is if we do nothing, then we’ll never know.
What about Asymptotic/self isolating cases not tested?
Isn’t this the point of track and trace?
Once someone is confirmed as having the virus, they get in contact with everyone they could have infected, so that they get tested?
That then picks up those cases where people are asymptotic or those who are self isolating and may not have it?
Currently only 4% of the daily results are positive.
We’re wasting a lot of that capacity.
A more targeted approach would be a lot more effective in reducing all cases.
This is the problem. We need to be randomly community testing too to pick up those we don’t know about now.
This is the big problem with the U.K. situation. We have such a high level of community spread we aren’t able to stamp down on it.
Oh, and for the first time since early March, really busy round my way today. Lockdown really is over, regardless of what Boris says.
Looking at the local echo website I can't help but think WTF.
Dorset has done pretty well with the number of cases, until shed loads of visitors came down and sat on the beach.
Unf***ingbelievable. The next two weeks will be very interesting.
But arguably they appear to be social distancing?
You should see my home today, it’s total carnage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52742519
Local village Facebook groups are losing their minds! Police reporting they are running out of tickets to leave on abandoned vehicles.
local facebook groups are a hotbed of idiocy & nimbyism tho!
anyway, went to station today to ask about commuting in to london from MK
Was told 1 person every 2 rows of seats, means that the usual 1000+ capacity trains tehy will only be taking 90 passengers
(Tho PA announcement was still saying only travel for essential reasons)
spoke to my boss and hes pretty cool, theres work I can do at home & remotely but its going to be a huge challenge to keep this going through the summer as Im lab based and usually look after quite a few students & clinicians, many of whom have time limits on their funding & research has a limited window for them
Yeah that’s very true about FB!
It is carnage out there and the news is accurate as I had to negotiate the traffic on my way to and from work!
Serco playing a blinder again.
Be honest, do you really think the fault lies with Serco here? Given a plan, clear instruction, and a timeline, I'd be surprised if they could not deliver. Which of those three is likely to be out of Serco's control?
My friend who lives just outside of Truro has reported the same traffic issues. She's a nurse and has had to walk to a friend's house to get a lift to work as her street is chock full of tourist's cars parked up to walk down to the local harbour. Two cars blocking her drive and her fiancee's car is blocked in further down the street too. He says it's busier than a bank holiday where they are!
Absolute madness.
Massively busy on the TPT near me this afternoon. Like a bank holiday. Dreadful.
Two cars blocking her drive and her fiancee’s car is blocked in further down the street too.
I really don't understand what kind of asshole does that.
My friend who lives just outside of Truro has reported the same traffic issues. She’s a nurse and has had to walk to a friend’s house to get a lift to work as her street is chock full of tourist’s cars parked up to walk down to the local harbour.
That's just weird, I wouldn't have Truro down as a top visitor hotspot.
It should be legal to remove double parked cars though. Part by part. With a crowbar and hammer.
Anyone who has posted on this thread Know anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 ?
There's another thread for that mate.
Maybe there is but that doesn't answer the question
That’s just weird, I wouldn’t have Truro down as a top visitor hotspot.
They're near Bissoe Valley Nature Reserve hence all the cars. They describe it as just outside Truro but it's a few miles away looking at a map?
I really don’t understand what kind of asshole does that.
My theory is that they are just really ****ing stupid mainly and dont even understand what they've done.
All these reports of rammed tourist spots, and also what I'm seeing with my own eyes on my commute home, just tells me lockdown is as good as over. This is now just a paid jolly for the majority of the furloughed and its become mostly pointless. Might as well just get everything back to some form of normality and maybe we'll save a lot more of those furloughed from the dole queue.
To be honest I'm just bitter I've been back in the office 3 weeks now whilst many are still having a once in a lifetime extended chill out session.
To be honest I’m just bitter I’ve been back in the office 3 weeks now whilst many are still having a once in a lifetime extended chill out session.
Share a care for those that will come out of this without the job they had going in. It’s not all about you.
Anyone who has posted on this thread Know anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 ?
Yes, someone who has tested positive, and plenty more who had a fair chance of testing positive, given symptoms and timing, but of course, did not have access to testing.
Plenty of information here:
Edit - looks like a potentially dodgy link but it isn't.
Kelvin I know that's how I should feel but I have not had a day off since October other than the weekend and Xmas holidays. I have then worked the last 2 months doing 2 other peoples jobs as well as mine from home as a co-parent traveling 20 miles e/w 3 times a week to collect my son - Being sat at my table day in day out with a very full workload can make you a little envious... bloody shagged
Share a care for those that will come out of this without the job they had going in. It’s not all about you.
It was meant tongue in cheek, of course I hope as many get to keep their jobs as possible and I'm actually quite glad to be back at work, but the longer this goes on the more people won't have any job to go back to. Meanwhile huge numbers have forgotten the whole reason for the lockdown so whats the point in continuing.
Anyone who has posted on this thread Know anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 ?
Yes, me. He died of it too.
I think I've got it.
Terrible time trying to bike ride a couple of days ago (irregular heartbeat), now I'm tired and run down, slightly breathless, more pronounced heartbeat and slight chest/shoulder pain (not in the heart area though).
On the other hand, I drank a lot of coffee recently, work has been mega stressful and I've been up late a lot. So maybe I'm just tired... I'll let you know how I get on 🙂
So maybe I’m just tired
Well I am 😉 . Having a proper serology test on Sunday, so will find out if I've had it. Sadly I know someone my age who died from it recently. He was already seriously ill, and his wife did all she could to keep him out of hospital. Sadly that is where he caught it. If I've had it, then it will have come from Heathrow.