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And a bit of 3. The transmission rate is lower than March, but log-linear growth is back on and has been since the schools went back. Also 28d ITU mortality has fallen from about 30% to nearer 25% thanks to better management and dexamethasone.
I’m glad you worked that out for me!
Take admissions, hit sqrt twice and multiply by original number, then divide by 20. Every civil servant has a Windows calculator even those with W95!
1. No real evidence of this since it got out of China
2. Testing strategy has changed, in March only symptomatic hospital admissions were being tested so those numbers do not reflect the infection rate in the general population. They probably still don't.
3. Yes, and also (from a Covid nurse) fewer patients = better care.
4. Apparently so, but they are then transferring it into more vulnerable groups
5. Ignore social media Covid scare stories.
Thanks for the responses, on reflection my previous post looks to be a bit devils advocate and 'conspiracy' but I didn't mean it to be, so thanks for all answering sensibly.
Every civil servant has a Windows calculator
I dont even have a laptop!!!
Stop making me do maths, I dont like it!!
but I didn’t mean it to be
All over the UK people are asking the same questions. They’re not unusual ‘wonderings’ at all.
liamhutch89
There is a big difference between asking questions and making assertions. Your post looks like the former to me
I've been taking a multi-vitamin tablet most days for months, but it only contains a pathetic 5micrograms of VitD.
After feeling a bit rough with hopefully nothing more than man flu for just over a week (no principal Covid symptoms), while I'm now really wondering what this floating rib ache is that I've now had for a month (but it's not moving daily like back in late March and April), I felt the urge to buy something better while getting some groceries yesterday...
Best I could find was https://betteryou.com/dlux3000 that contains 75micrograms, in form of spray that you direct to inside of cheek, found it in Superdrug. Cost me £9.95, which looks quite expensive now looking on interweb, but at least I have something 15x stronger than I've been using!
75 micrograms is 3000IU (International Units iirc), Dr Fauci in USA has been taking 6000IU for months apparently.
It seems the problem at the moment isn't being able to have awareness of / predict when infection rates or deaths will rise. It's we have a government that sees the problem, maybe understands it's a deadline they have to act by. Unfortunately the level high levels of detachment from the real world means they have no concept of lead in times. Last minute Boris thinking he's a journalist. The good old days when he could swill down a bit of port and pate then roll home half cut just before midnight and cobble together a few stereotypes and call in insight.
In the spring acting a week or two earlier makes a big difference but only because that's all the time you have. Firefighting is the only solution in that situation.
Now when we have been aware it's been coming down the tracks since late spring / early summer the ground work needed to be laid in late summer (at the absolute latest). A time when Captain Funtime was still talking about all over by Christmas. It did really feel like they were going to go for armistice day as the end of all restrictions - just because they are fighting this with spin and ideology. Even now there's always an I dont want to do this, the British are freedom loving crap. A natural born shirker who seems totally incapable of seeing things from anyone else's perspective - it's not exactly surprising we are up the creek. I had thought a second round might sharpen peoples minds but I'm now thinking it's going to be demob happy summer / shit show winter cycle next year. The idea being a vaccine will arrive just in time - maybe someone needs to start ramming home hope for the best plan for the worst. There is a danger with this approach - Captain Funtime has gone to his happy place in the fridge. Telling him there is trouble ahead won't get him out. Maybe it's time to lock him, remove the vermin from the kitchen and start again.
In other news - Barrow in Furness numbers are off and running again. Hit hard first time and going again. High levels of people with pre-existing health conditions trumping any notion of herd immunity?
Tired, almost 800 admissions yesterday, is this still fitting the model you posted a few weeks back. I need reassurance its not going to be worse than last time!!
I don't think you'll find many. The last projection I saw, was showing 80k Deaths between now and Jan. IF we have a 2 week, full lock down circuit break in the next week or so that figure might be halved to 40k, about as many who died in the initial wave. So best case, it'll be equally as bad as last time.
That said, the first projection of deaths over Winter was as high as 250k which was reduced when infection rates didn't climb as projected.
Also, it doesn't consider the possibility vaccination, this has gone a bit quiet on the news of late, but Phase 3 is due to end very soon, Boris may use emergency powers to allow it's use on an unlicensed basis for the first 2 tiers of vaccinations (Healthcare workers and the very elderly)
However, that only takes us to Jan, with months left until Spring when infection rates will naturally start to fall.
It's a pretty good regression, I am sad to say...
n0b0dy0ftheg0at
Free MemberI’ve been taking a multi-vitamin tablet most days for months, but it only contains a pathetic 5micrograms of VitD.
After feeling a bit rough with hopefully nothing more than man flu for just over a week (no principal Covid symptoms), while I’m now really wondering what this floating rib ache is that I’ve now had for a month (but it’s not moving daily like back in late March and April), I felt the urge to buy something better while getting some groceries yesterday…
Best I could find was https://betteryou.com/dlux3000 that contains 75micrograms
I bought a load from Amazon for about £12 for about 400 1000IU tablets.
75 micrograms is 3000IU (International Units iirc), Dr Fauci in USA has been taking 6000IU for months apparently.
Note that there are hazards in overdosing on it (there was some discussion of this a few days ago).
Thanks for your continued updates and input Tired, and belated congratulations as I don't think I said it at the time.
And thanks to thecaptain too, your posts help me a lot also.
One thing for vulnerable/oldies to note:
Pharmacies and big supermarkets have the flu vaccine in and available now.
My gp had texted me to get one, and are doing a clinic for it in the weeks time.
Had to pick up meds from pharmacy yesterday, first time in about six months, and they did my vaccine there and then, no bother.
I'd say it's worth getting in early for anyone or your old folk now as its worth it and might not be so easy in three or four. weeks
for me, im still staggered at how inept the government is. without sounding like a paranoid conspiracy theorist surely the UK government had a broad plan in place for if/when 'this type of thing happens?
the government 'govern' but sadly for the many already lost, permanently damaged, or affected it's too late. and we just at the start of what could be a long cold winter which doesn't feel great either.
(a local friend is still recovering from the virus - 40 days in a medically induced coma, permanently deaf in one ear, severely damaged shoulder needing years of physio as he had to get a hole punched through his back to drain his lungs on the ventilator, need counseling after the dreams he had whilst under and can hardly walk up a few steps without a break - he's only just over 50)
our politicians across the board are mediocre at best, I can't help thinking about how different things would have been if we'd had folk that had even the vaguest clue. even dreaming of previous dud leaders and I think we'd have had a better chance somehow.
sorry, I've nothing very positive to say, i just hope everyone is taking care as much as they can...
this shite can't end soon enough. thank god for my bike.
surely the UK government had a broad plan in place for if/when ‘this type of thing happens?
Global pandemic has always been the biggest threat and recognized as such by all governments. The planned pandemic was for influenza. "This is not the global pandemic you are looking for". Influenza has many different characteristics (like PPE requirements) - the most challenging being pretty much universal susceptibility. Thankfully child morbidity is low (not the case for flu).
"No plan survives the first contact with the enemy."
I sincerely hope your friend makes a good recovery.
for me, im still staggered at how inept the government is. without sounding like a paranoid conspiracy theorist surely the UK government had a broad plan in place for if/when ‘this type of thing happens?
They did/do.
The problem is that they're never perfectly matched to a particular set of circumstances and it's far more complex that if A happens, do B.
The last 10 years seem to have been a case of "if it could go wrong, it has" for the UK.
Simple stuff, and this is all theory so don't shoot me down, take your own political spin on it, but it's all linked. We're suffering in the UK, partly because we elected a populist Tabloid Journalist as PM who is completely at the mercy of the people who helped put him there. Every decision he makes is guided by keeping them happy whilst he plays out his Churchill fantasies.
Boris thinks rhetoric we "get us through this" and we'll be able to leap frog the rest of Europe by borrowing less then them to keep Brexit on track.
Frankly it's just another "**** you" from Brexit, thanks to that cluster **** we've ended up with exactly the worst person you'd want in charge in a crisis. I don't know if it's just because I spent too much time on here, but it feels like his own party are going to turn on him and that ****er Cummings any moment, let's hope something happens before the bodies start to pile up.
Frankly it’s just another “* you” from Brexit, thanks to that cluster * we’ve ended up with exactly the worst person you’d want in charge in a crisis
This. And I don't tend to discuss politics as a rule!
Lancashire is now in Tier 3. This is a sad day. I just can't see anything other than a re-run of the 80's up here as our economy collapses, small businesses go down like dominoes and we have mass unemployment and the utter hopelessness that goes with it. It's going to be a long, bleak winter
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1317037445444231169?s=20
In typical fashion, we all found out about it via Twitter, rather than any official announcement. What a total shambles!
At least we can still laugh at these strokers who are (nominally) in charge and John Crace is one of the best...
I particularly liked:
We now have a government masquerading as a piece of self-destructive performance art.
But the whole article is worth a chuckle (albeit a jaded and bitter one).
I just can’t see anything other than a re-run of the 80’s
Look on the bright side, it'll give us something to moan about for the next 30 years, and the red-wall idiots who voted tory will finally get what's coming to them.
And is it just me, or have Lancashire really sold themselves out for a measly 12M? Seems some people can be bought very cheap.
Ok, imagine I'm stupid (possibly not hard after reading the following question).
Nationwide lockdown for two weeks.
or
Regional lockdown(s) when and where local infection rate reaches point "x", for two weeks.
My naive question, why wouldn't the second approach be better? Surely it would be, you know, possible to support people who are furloughed for the period.
And why the hell is the track and trace not supporting people who are effectively furloughed when they are told to stay at home?
Please phrase answers without the use of "useless Tory bar stewards" as that's apparent from every other thing they do as well as pandemic.
Surely it would be, you know, possible to support people who are furloughed for the period.
And why the hell is the track and trace not supporting people who are effectively furloughed when they are told to stay at home?
It seems obvious to me. Irrelevant of political persuasions.
And is it just me, or have Lancashire really sold themselves out for a measly 12M? Seems some people can be bought very cheap.
42m I think, 12m was the opening offer, still not going to help much. Probably the best they can get and the longer this goes on the less there will be on the table. I think in terms of bail out when we look back Liverpool and Lancs will do better than most of the country who will all be tier 3 at some point. This is where Binners is slightly off, this is not just about the north, it is today but it wont be for long, its not a uniquely northern issue. The bigger question is what bail outs are the government going to provide when the whole country ends up in lockdown and that is coming, if we end up with a circuit break it won't be enough unless we go back to April style shut down of everything including retail, and that won't happen. Instead we'll have a circuit break on pubs, hospitality that we never really come out of. The governments plan is death by a thousand cuts, do the least they can, pay out as little as possible, pretend it's under control until they can't and do the minimum. The upshot is both the medical and financial outcomes will be lot worse.
Surely it would be, you know, possible to support people who are furloughed for the period.
It absolutely is. In fact they could do a lot more. They could protect all jobs, all incomes and all businesses. But they won't, because that would mean exposing the lie that government spending is constrained by the receipt of taxes. If everyone in the country understood how money is created and government spending works they'd be on the streets.
Regional lockdown(s) when and where local infection rate reaches point “x”, for two weeks.
4 reasons
1. people move around, we're a small fairly densely populated country.
2. The government have lost the support of the population, it needs to everybody together or it won't be respected.
3. Local lockdowns aren't draconian enough, we need April style measures including shutting non-essential retail to reverse this.
4. Local lock downs happen too late due to politics, shut everything down now, areas only now starting to see an increase won't get to the levels the north is at.
This is where Binners is slightly off, this is not just about the north, it is today but it won't be for long, it's not a uniquely northern issue.
To be fair to me I did say that I fully expect the rest of the country to be next at some point soon.
We're just the first as we're an easy target
I genuinely believe that Boris, Dom and co couldn't give a monkeys about anyone but themselves and their mates. Geographical position is irrelevent. They'll bend us all over. They'll happily sell the entire country down the river to line their own pockets. Something they're doing very effectively at the moment, and with No deal now a certainty christ only knows what's in for us all next year. Complete economic decimation by the looks of it
it’s okay, Boris’ 4pm COVID briefing will clear it all up
Is he announcing all pubs close midnight Sunday?
@MCTD - Well now that the Commons bars have been closed, he'll make sure that us plebs feel their pain
This briefing - is this an internal briefing or the public announcement type briefing?
Ahahaha! So the simple standardised regional tier model seems to have different conditions for different regions. You really couldn't make this up could you?
https://twitter.com/MetroMayorSteve/status/1317066228259868674?s=20
Probably a dead cat briefing so the evening news focuses on that rather than the brexit clock running down and the ongoing cluster mess that they are making of Covid.
Look on the bright side, it’ll give us something to moan about for the next 30 years, and the red-wall idiots who voted tory will finally get what’s coming to them.
This +1.
As a Londoner i'm struggling to have much sympathy for some parts of the North right now.
This briefing – is this an internal briefing or the public announcement type briefing?
I'm going for an announcement of a Festival of Brexit
As a Londoner i’m struggling to have much sympathy for some parts of the North right now.
You should try living here. I'm starting to feel like I'm in a hostage video
Today's briefing:
@thepurist - I thought BoJos 4pm briefing was primarily about Brexit and not Covid? May have got confused though!
As a Londoner i’m struggling to have much sympathy for some parts of the North right now.
Time is a great healer, you'll understand in about 2 weeks.
@ferrals - Sky News ticker tape said PM doing a 4pm CV19 update. What that actually means is up for debate. I'll expect words like whiffle, wobbly, the French and parliamentarism to crop up
I’m going for an announcement of a Festival of Brexit
I hope so - sounds like just what we need to lift our spirits at the moment...
He might as well explain to us how throwing more the half of the country (and counting) into lock-down without financial support, combined with a no-deal Brexit in 7 weeks will combine to make everything so great for us all.
FFS, Isn't it about time the Tories thrust a knife in his back? That's their usual MO isn't it?
You should try living here. I’m starting to feel like I’m in a hostage video
Brilliant!
Our head office is on Oldham Road in Manchester - i can imagine its like a scene from 28 days later right now...
Today’s briefing:
Is it though? That's some independent group, have they any influence over what happens or are they just some kind of pressure group?
They're independent from government. They hardly hide it. It's in the name.
FFS, Isn’t it about time the Tories thrust a knife in his back? That’s their usual MO isn’t it?
@P-Jay I kind of thought that was what was happening when Jeremy Hunt announced he was going to be overseeing an imediate review into the govt's handling of covid a few weeks ago.. but it seems to have gone a bit quiet
FFS, Isn’t it about time the Tories thrust a knife in his back? That’s their usual MO isn’t it?
Only at a politically suitable time.
If they do it now then someone else will take much of the blame and they its unlikely they have another May with the right mix of ambition and sense of duty.
Whereas if they leave it a year or two it will allow for the new leader to bed in a bit but still be able to try the "what that disastrous past few years? Nowt to do with me. That was Labour honest".
As the country dissolves into chaos in January, with the south-east one huge lorry park and the northern cities ablaze he'll be off. Probably with a random EU passport to host a right-wing radio show in LA
As with Theresa May though... be careful what ou wish for, as what follows will inevitably, and somewhat unbelievably be even worse
Patel? The racist man's brown person?
Raab? Patrick Bateman without the charm?
42m I think, 12m was the opening offer, still not going to help much.
Just seems to be a variation on a Dutch Auction but starting with the highest price to your region in terms of economic damage. Might have to add another gameshow for Mr Cummings to host - The Price is Life.
Longer term if Team Boris come away with their tails between their legs from Europe and from the Regions it's going to send an easy picking message out for countries where we need trade deals. We're just digging ourselves deeper into the hole.
Today’s briefing
Very interesting again, thanks Bill.
I didn't have any real picture about what is happening in NI and Spain before that.
Curious to the worst it could actually get in the uk, so been looking at the death rate. Basically just as a measurement that by the end up to gauge how good or bad it has actually been. Basically just looking to quantify actual worst case scenario, out of pure curiosity.
Obviously this is the let it rip scenario i'm trying to quantify here, which isn't happening, mm, well kinda, we'll see what the gov does going forward and if it has a strategy..
But given the estimate that about 5-10% of the uk have been infected, so lets go with 7% for talking sake, err on the low end of mid for that, and that there's a disproportionate risk to over 70s of death. I'm thinking along these lines:
Population uk 7% = 4.6655m
percentage over 70 in uk = 15.21%
So over 70 @ 7% = 70,9622
Under 70 @ 7% = 3,955,877
Under 70 = 6772 deaths / 3,955,877 * 100 = 0.17%
Over 70 = 31632 deaths / 709,622 * 100 = 4.45%
To take that to a whole population level, means that if the let it rip strategy was implemented. We are looking at max death levels in the uk of somewhere in the region of:
66.65million = 10.114m over 70 + 56.52m under 70.
So death rate could be as high as:
Over 70 - 450,073
Under 70 - 90,084
So total there is 540,157. So at the minute, you could maybe say roughly 8% of possible deaths have happened in the uk?
Again, just fag packet maths, but what's wrong with my thinking there? Apart from there being high uncertainty in the number of people that have actually had it. I'd guess you could easily apply a +/-3% or more to this and it's highly speculative.
Guess maybe 7% of over 70s having had it might be a massive underestimate, given the prevalence in care homes earlier on?
So total there is 540,157.
You're figures look reasonable... but for two things that could send the estimate either way...
1) we now know more about how to protect and treat people than we did when most of the previous deaths occurred... more of the vulnerable should be better protected from catching the virus... more of those that get ill should be saved
2) most previous deaths occurred with medical care being available, harsh rationing was limited, because we "locked down" to "protect the NHS"... too many people getting ill at once has to mean a greater proportion dying... more NHS staff will be ill and unavilable... more people will be without access to care and equipment that could save them
Yep, IndieSage is free of political pressure and therefore can observe and advise from a purely scientific perspective. It was set up by David King (former Cambridge Prof of Chemistry, Master of Downing College, VC (?) of Liverpool University, co-inventor of the catalytic converter, Scientific Advisor to the Blair and Brown governments) and involves people who are significant in their field but not constrained by party political considerations or concerns. I wouldn't see it as a pressure group as its focus is widespread and multi-faceted, they're just making the best use of what they know and I'm very f grateful for that.
No Whitty with Johnson today.
Andy Burnham not on the Christmas card (aka thank you) to the regional leaders list lol....
Ouch
Wait, Cornwall? Has Dom been reading this thread?
Wait, Cornwall? Has Dom been reading this thread?
Dammit, rumbled! I'm off to Castle Barnard.
Again, just fag packet maths, but what’s wrong with my thinking there?
I think the original lockdown was triggered by a report that suggested that the "let it rip" approach would cost half a million lives, so your fag packet seems pretty accurate.
Probably a dead cat briefing so the evening news focuses on that rather than the brexit clock running down and the ongoing cluster mess that they are making of Covid.
Tonights headlines... "PM promises roll out of millions of 5 minute covid tests to open up the economy". Can anyone smell something?
So if you go in to Tier 3 willinging, Boris will throw you some extra tests? How generous
Most of that was "Andy Burnham, get back in your box". A bit school bully like because if he doesn't, Boris is going to get him.
So if us naughty kids in Greater Manchester won’t do as we’re told by teacher and go into Tier 3, then it’s detention for us all.
What you gonna do, Boris? Water cannon us?
Questions from the public… the answers to those… blimey… “check the website”… no shielding anywhere.
The main groups exposed last spring had higher percentages of over 70s to the national average? Conversely less people exposed who are just living relatively normally with diagnosed / un diagnosed underlying conditions. I suspect the under 70s will go up as you start to have more of the underlying condition people catching it. Death rates for obesity, smoking etc in the spring compared to percentage of population would start to build up the numbers - keeping to the back of a fag packet approach. Over 70s deaths will now be in situations where medical care isn't available. The people who are coping in their own homes. Whilst the numbers may go down due to an over representation in the deaths due to things like care homes they may go up due to more people being further away from quick help. And then there's the rationing thing.
Oh for the want of a semi-log plot in that presentation. You may have noticed that 85+ admissions to ITU/HDU declined as admissions increased. That's due to changes in triage as stress is put on the system by increased numbers of cases. Still early in the South and London, but cases were lower when schools went back and a lower number in exponential-land is called a lag time.
Valence busy talking politics now. Where’s Whitty?
Dammit, rumbled! I’m off to Castle Barnard.
Nothing to see in Barney - move along - I hear Corfe is rather nice this time of year.
Did we do the eye test chart of castles?
binners
Full Member
So if us naughty kids in Greater Manchester won’t do as we’re told by teacher and go into Tier 3, then it’s detention for us all.What you gonna do, Boris? Water cannon us?
Like it or not, kinda got you by the short and curly's, what's manchester going, to do, sit about and watch a % of your over 70s and vulnerable pop their clogs and go, see told ye boris...
I agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.
Oh for the want of a semi-log plot in that presentation. You may have noticed that 85+ admissions to ITU/HDU declined as admissions increased. That’s due to changes in triage as stress is put on the system by increased numbers of cases.
My assumption was that as it was getting fuller they weren't putting 85+ in ICU anymore, as the change of the graph was striking, thanks for confirming
Why are they bothering to ask Johnson anything? It’s as if all he knows is what he has just heard in the last 10 minutes.
How are the people over 70 catching this though?
They wont be mixing within the work place, be involved within the education system, or down at the pub.
Johnson just said that there is no shielding, even in tier3 regions, that should partly answer your question. Less flippantly… someone in their 20s in contact with someone in their 30s in contact with someone in their 50s in contact with someone in their 70s… there are no magic firebreaks between age groups… hence we should all isolate for a few weeks, and reduce transmission.
Nosocomial (hospital acquire), nursing homes, general contacts, grandchildren... Some aspect of each of these in varying degrees. Admissions with COVID19 also counts those already in hospital who become positive, I believe. In March/April it was mainly the first routes, now it may not be so much.
Sadly there is very little evidence of a role of population immunity, contact restriction and barrier precautions are (at the moment) the primary means of control of contagion.
Valence busy talking politics now. Where’s Whitty?
You've kind of answered your own question. Whitty was too direct on Science only responses last time out.
Why the **** is he talking about Brexit FFS get a grip you bumbling ****!
.
As an aside for those that receive it, this years Flu jab is pretty punchy. I had mine at 1pm, and now at 16:45 my arm feels like its done 5 rounds with Tyson, about 48 hrs earlier than last year.
agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.
We’re under Tier 2 lockdown now. We have been since the start of August. We were only out of lockdown for a couple of weeks. We’ve had nothing but lockdown since March.
It’s made the square root of * all difference to our infection rate.
So let’s just shut down the bits of our economy that are still open, with no financial aid
* off Boris!
Why the * is he talking about Brexit FFS get a grip you bumbling *!
The press brought it up.
How are the people over 70 catching this though?
Having seen a couple of coachloads of geriatric daytrippers from Wigan being disgorged into Skipton this week, I think there are some possibilities.
Quite a few are still the childcare backstop in their families.
Meanwhile, Binners is going into full Network mode. Always awesome to watch 🙂
Yeah, agree with seosamh.
Boris has failed rule 1.
No need to outdo him and fight lockdown.
That's a lot of blood on hands.
You’ve kind of answered your own question.
I try.
I appreciate people still need to go shopping and other essential business
Well, there you go. The more people carrying the virus around the community, the more risky the essential stuff is for people who perhaps should be shielding (but there is no shielding, and no support for people who arguably should be).
Binners is going into full Network mode.
Less flippantly… someone in their 20s in contact with someone in their 30s in contact with someone in their 50s in contact with someone in their 70s… there are no magic firebreaks between age groups… hence we should all isolate for a few weeks, and reduce transmission.
But on the same logic that we are asking certain geographical parts of the country to have differing levels of restrictions, why are we not taking the same view on age?