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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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I’m curious as to what any so called ‘circuit breaker’ would actually achieve. All of these lockdown measures merely kick the problem further down the road - they change nothing fundamentally. When you re-open society cases just increase again.

Unless you’re planning to lock down until there’s a vaccine then you have just delayed deaths. Even the scientists who produced today’s widely touted paper suggesting a circuit breaker could save several thousand lives admitted this on Radio 4 this morning,

The only exception to this is countries that have taken a super hard line on lockdown and immigration, like New Zealand, but these are outliers that don’t have anywhere near the population of the connectivity of major economies.

It’s funny that repeating the same actions again and again and expecting different results used to be regarded as a sign of madness, yet during this situation it seems to be a widely used policy.

JP


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 8:20 pm
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I’m curious as to what any so called ‘circuit breaker’ would actually achieve

Slow the increase and allow the nhs to cope. Deaths have doubled in a week, if it does that for another 3 we have 1000+ a day. If we can knock it back that rate of increase shouldnt happen, enables us to keep tweaking to find the point at which it doesnt explode, if we do nothing we are screwed.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 8:25 pm
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It’s funny that repeating the same actions again and again and expecting different results used to be regarded as a sign of madness

JP

Erm...


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 8:44 pm
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Curfew for big French towns. I expect to see trains out of them crammed with party goers on a Friday evening heading to places where partying is still allowed. Shit, that's where I live and they can get here in a few hours on the TGV. No curfew in Bordeaux and it's just over 2h from Paris on the TGV or anywhere on the north coast.

Once again it'll be interesting to follow the reality and note the perverse effects of the measures and whether there's a net benefit. Closing bars early means people have private parties in cramped flats where there is no obligatory distancing. Preventing private parties in one place transfers them to another, maybe.

Next measure, ban weekend travel? Ban sleep overs. It's becoming a game of cat and mouse.

Excellent speech, M. Macron, all the right noises and crystal clear, but I'm not sure enough people were listening. And some who were aren't going to like it, we have enough hospital beds but do we have enough CRS?


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 8:44 pm
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then you have just delayed deaths

All public health measures are just seeking to delay deaths. We have the extra sting here that this virus is new, and buying us time is essential to avoid thousands (upon thousands) of extra early deaths as result of not having yet learnt enough about it to intervene successfully. People getting ill this month will die, when catching the same virus next summer would not result in death due to more effective treatment. And then you have the problem of hospital resources... too many people seriously ill at once, and rationing beds and care will mean many premature deaths that could be avoided if less people are ill at once. You should understand this by now. Go back and read the thread pages from back in the spring.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 8:46 pm
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Circuit break is still a poor analogy - re-setting the switches and if we are lucky changing the fuse doesn't really get to the problem causing the short. It buys a bit of time at best but isnt going to stop the light going out again and again over the winter. The underlying issue for me is still Team Boris trying to fight a pandemic purely on free market shrink the state ideology.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 9:01 pm
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I wonder how this will play out with more people actually having had it. Will they continue to play by the rules knowing it's unlikely they will be affected again.

Daughter had it last week, she's 16 in student accommodation in Manchester. Everyone in her flat has had it (all positive tests), 3 have stuck rigidly to the quarantine, food delivered in etc., the other 2 high tailed it home on the train, daughter is fuming. She was pretty rough last week, lots of being sick and fatigue,no temperature, cough or loss of smell. No symptoms since last Friday and quarantine expired yesterday although all 3 apps gave different quarantine periods despite them all being tested at the same time in the same place. Unite Students have been pretty good supporting them, better than university owned accommodation. All seem fine now a week on, but then they are all young, slim and very healthy being full time dance students.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 9:05 pm
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I’m curious as to what any so called ‘circuit breaker’ would actually achieve

Aside from the keeping the health service running at not over-capacity, there is the longer term goal of reduced overall mortality. Treatments and prophylaxis are coming, and these will protect and spare life (one might be a vaccine).

If you think in logarithms, then the epidemic grows and falls in a straight line - each circuit breaker is like the tooth on a saw - and area under the line is total deaths. Keeping them low till the cavalry arrive is a reason. Immunity will blunt the teeth on the saw a bit too. We are looking for evidence of curvature in new cases/admissions. It's not easy to spot as immunity levels are so low.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 9:05 pm
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Cases go up.. circuit break: cases go down again. Cases go up.. repeat as necessary so that NHS doesn’t get overwhelmed and fewer people die. Keep this going until vaccines & improved treatment are available.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 9:06 pm
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I’m curious as to what any so called ‘circuit breaker’ would actually achieve. All of these lockdown measures merely kick the problem further down the road – they change nothing fundamentally. When you re-open society cases just increase again.

It can seem like that but not really. High incidence in the population means every little bit you creep above R=1 creates a ton of cases. (which is why it's so frustrating that people obsess about the R number in isolation and that it's come to define how many people think and talk about it) Low incidence means that you need to go incredibly wrong to create the same number of cases. The current level of restrictions could have worked well, had we not already got so much of it in the community, but just keeping it at a fairly stable, high level just meant we were perfectly primed to lose control again and when we did, it happened faster than we could handle.

Put it another way, the more of it is out there, the more careful you have to be, to achieve the exact same result. The period between starting to see a spike and acting means more people infected which means bigger actions needed. Absolutely everything about this works better with less reservoir of infection in the population. It's why losing control is such a bad thing. If you get the amount of cases low then you can go to an orgy and have less chance of catching the virus than you do right now just going to a supermarket.

If the final goal was herd immunity, then it'd be right to say we're only slowing it down. It isn't though, or hopefully not, because we don't even know if that's mathematically possible. (ps, a confirmed fatality from a second Covid infection was confirmed this week; unclear whether or not the patient had fully recovered from the first, but it was a different strain so certainly 2 episodes of covid in one person)


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 10:10 pm
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I agree immunity levels are low but perhaps already high enough to slow spread in places hardset hit first time around. In France that's eastern France. In this second wave the east of France is doing very well - two explanations, people who suffered most are likely to take the threat more seriously and be more respectful of measures, and or the number of people with immunity is slowing the spread.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 10:11 pm
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In this second wave the east of France is doing very well – two explanations, people who suffered most are likely to take the threat more seriously and be more respectful of measures, and or the number of people with immunity is slowing the spread.

Or it's just burnt through the accessible susceptible for now. Same level as precautions but those who are going to catch it and suffer badly have done.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 10:38 pm
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I’m curious as to what any so called ‘circuit breaker’ would actually achieve. All of these lockdown measures merely kick the problem further down the road – they change nothing fundamentally. When you re-open society cases just increase again.

Unless you’re planning to lock down until there’s a vaccine then you have just delayed deaths. Even the scientists who produced today’s widely touted paper suggesting a circuit breaker could save several thousand lives admitted this on Radio 4 this morning,

Circuit breaker as they're describing it, nowhere near the impact it would have had 3 weeks ago. In March, this was considered the central strategy, sequential phases of tightening then loosening restrictions. With the goal of preventing overrun in the NHS and delaying excess deaths until better treatment was available and more informed restrictions could be applied. I'm still questioning the logic of waiting until overrun is nearly guaranteed then bringing the restrictions.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 10:41 pm
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or the number of people with immunity is slowing the spread.

If it is unrestricted log-linear growth, there is no impact of immunity. The shallower slope is due to behavioral changes. If there has been an intervention, like a short lockdown or other restrictions, then deviations will also be noted after a time. UK hospital admissions are most definitely log-linear at the moment 🙁


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 10:41 pm
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two explanations, people who suffered most are likely to take the threat more seriously and be more respectful of measures, and or the number of people with immunity is slowing the spread.

That seems pretty logical to me. When it's an abstract you're not going to take it as seriously as when it touches you personally. I think in general vulnerable people are going to be living far more cautiously.


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 10:45 pm
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It's very human that worst hit areas would react best- same reason that countries with recent experience of epidemics mostly reacted faster, things were more real. If you're in some area that was spared the worst first time round you're far more likely to go "nobody who I know got it". If your gran died last time you're more likely to punch someone who says "yeah but it only kills 1%..."


 
Posted : 14/10/2020 10:59 pm
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Nice work if you can get it...

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316408570242568198?s=20

Thankfully they're worth every penny as they're doing such a great job

World-beating!


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 8:25 am
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When do the daily briefings start again? Why do we expect the public to buy into the importance of the ongoing and new measures without them…? And when does the government start accepting that TTI doesn’t work unless those told to isolate get proper support to do so? And where hospitality has been all but shut down for the winter, where is the help for those workers?


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 8:40 am
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The answers to none of those questions will be arriving any time soon. Channel 4 news are saying that the media collectively are now considering protesting outside Downing Street at the governments refusal to engage with them on any meaningful level. Theres now a complete bunker mentality. Boris is hiding in the fridge again.

In the meantime 'The Government' are today giving the leaders of every area that is threatened with going into Tier 3 restrictions a whole half an hour on the phone to one of Doms lackeys to plead their case.

Something that could potentially decimate their economies and has enormous long-term implications for their entire communities and that's the level of consultation on offer.

When all evidence is pointing to more decision making, especially on T&T, being devolved to local level, instead we get more dictats from Westminster

We might as well be living in a dictatorship


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 9:41 am
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And where hospitality has been all but shut down for the winter, where is the help for those workers?

There is none. They are putting ideology over the lives and health and well being of the country. If they want people to lock down and isolate themselves, they need to protect their jobs and incomes, and the businesses that provide those, and they won't do it because they're religiously sticking to the lie that they can't afford it. Labour need to show some balls on this too and start calling for a UBI. It's the only workable solution.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 10:50 am
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When do the daily briefings start again?

When Allegra Stratton is in post? That would be the dodgers charter approach allowing Boris to sit there knowing accountability has successfully been avoided again.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:14 am
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* me!

Boris's cowardice knows no bounds. This is truly beyond belief. All the London MP's have just been informed that they're being moved into tier 2 via a phone call with...

Helen Whately! HELEN *ING WHATELY

A woman who is intellectually bested by the furniture around her and has all the gravitas of a cotton bud

She is now about to inform Lancashire and Greater Manchester what fate awaits them

Thats like them getting the work experience kid to come and let you know that they've got your test results back and you've got terminal cancer

Unbelievable!


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:14 am
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TBH Binners, nobody in cabinet is any better than her (very low bar!) and at least it was a minister rather than “No10 adviser”. I’m more disgusted by the £1.5million contractor salary for T&T.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:20 am
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Could be worse, could have been Boris himself.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:26 am
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Any thoughts on how a lockdown will work this time round? Sounds like (from WalesOnline) in Wales at least there serious planning going on for a 'circuit-break' some time in the next few weeks that will include half-term.

I'm wondering if it will be back to the only leave the house once for exercise and not by car, or whether understanding of the virus is such that we'll be allowed outside more than once and be allowed to travel short distances for recreation outside.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:36 am
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It won’t work properly because it will be a fudge not a lockdown.

I’m afraid we have been completely failed by incompetent leadership & ideology.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:38 am
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We didn't have a true lockdown last time. Seems a bit pointless speculating what it might be this time around. "Not enough" is my best guess.

Headline in the FT today saying the IMF are stating austerity won't be needed to balance the books - good job we have a government that doesn't need to listen to experts.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:49 am
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the current government policy is just a reflection of the reality of the previous "lockdown". For the most part Ignored in the shires and only marginally enforced in major metropolitan centers.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 11:52 am
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binners, you beat me to it; whately is an embarrassment and incompetent in all her public performances.
Pushing her out as johnson's representative shows his utter contempt for the public - the little people - and parliament.
Test, trace, track, isolate - a mantra that gives off the impression of focus and competence; if only.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:00 pm
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I see that to add insult to injury, as well as the test and trace being handed to SERCO with no tendering process, there are no enforceable penalties for their continued failure to deliver it

They've effectively been handed a blank cheque


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:05 pm
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Any thoughts on how a lockdown will work this time round? Sounds like (from WalesOnline) in Wales at least there serious planning going on for a ‘circuit-break’ some time in the next few weeks that will include half-term.

I’m wondering if it will be back to the only leave the house once for exercise and not by car, or whether understanding of the virus is such that we’ll be allowed outside more than once and be allowed to travel short distances for recreation outside.

It's not been decided in Wales yet, but if it happens, and it probably will, it will likely be the same as back in March.

For us that meant all non essential business closed, 1 lot of outdoor exercise a day, non-essential travel banned etc.

I don't think it's a case of "if we need to" as they're saying, it's more of a case of "if we can do it". It's easier on Business if they do it half-term but it still leaves lots of questions about childcare for essential workers, financial support for businesses who are already struggling etc. The financial and economic part is the hardest, WAG doesn't have any tax raising powers so if Boris / Westminster doesn't want to support it (and let's be honest, he doesn't) then it's going to be hard to pull off.

I see in the News today, Boris is still trying to claim the current regs would bring the R rate below 1 again if only everyone would follow them.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:06 pm
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The government has just said "no agreement has been reached with Greater Manchester"

Looks like Andy has just told Boris where he can stick his Tier 3!

Good on him!


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:14 pm
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All this talk about "enforcement" rather than "support" is the issue... and Burnham is right to insist on support... otherwise the government is forcing a hard choice on more and more businesses and workers this winter... go broke or try and work around the rules.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:20 pm
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Looks like Andy has just told Boris where he can stick his Tier 3!

Playing devils advocate, how many extra cases will there by while Burnham stands his ground, and how many people will die as a result? (Yes I know the hardship from lost jobs will also have an impact).


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:20 pm
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London into Tier 2 from Saturday, different to Andy Burnham, it appears from the implication in the News that Khan has forced the decision based on the government's delay to protect the city.

I think its a good thing for us to move to Tier 2, but is this Starmer using the Capital to gain some political points?  E.G. Labour controlled region is decisive.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:21 pm
 dazh
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Looks like Andy has just told Boris where he can stick his Tier 3!

What would stop Burnham telling businesses in Manchester to ignore the tier 3 rules and instructing the police not to prosecute them?


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:34 pm
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Playing devils advocate, how many extra cases will there by while Burnham stands his ground, and how many people will die as a result?

This isn't just Andy. Apparently the most vocal critics of the government in the meeting this morning were from GM's new 'red wall' Tory MP's who are not happy at all.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1316690619952246784?s=20

It's not just new MPs either. Liam Brady - Trafford MP, head of the 1922 committee, so a Tory big hitter - is vehemently opposed to this.

Seems like Boris is facing a united, cross-party front. So he sent political heavyweight Helen Whately out to deal with it. I'd have paid good money to watch that 😀


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 12:40 pm
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What would stop Burnham telling businesses in Manchester to ignore the tier 3 rules and instructing the police not to prosecute them?

Not sure the police are quite OK with being told how to enforce the law by some mayor or other. Yes, he could cause mayhem by undermining the tier 3 rules just on his own, though.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 1:00 pm
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Yesterday Lancashire was going into Tier 3 now it's staying in Tier 2 - for now. How can I plan with any certainty for my business when I don't know when any future change might be applied. Uncertainty is the enemy of investment and all that.

Liam Brady – Trafford MP

Not sure he's an MP. Had a wand of a left foot though. Ironically.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 1:05 pm
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My mistake. I meant Graham Brady. 😀

It is a crazy situation though. I mean... where is Boris? Yet again?

null

Reports coming out of this mornings 'meeting' are saying that there wasn't one single voice in support of moving Greater Manchester into Tier 3. Not even from any of the Tories. Universal cross-party opposition.

Boris would have and should have known this. He didn't, as he didn't bother to ask them. He sent numbskull Helen Whately out to TELL them what was about to happen, having not bothered to consult them. They told her, collectively, to **** off!

Over to you Boris


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 1:17 pm
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Boris just isn't politic though is he. Not in the broader sense of the word. He doesn't listen, explain, mediate, compromise or display sound judgement.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 1:22 pm
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I see in the News today, Boris is still trying to claim the current regs would bring the R rate below 1 again if only everyone would follow them.

No comment.

I think above all else, you have to carry the population with you. Clear rules and clear communication. Half-term is coming. Adding extra conditions on top of the (normal) closure of schools may bring disproportionate benefits (it's a nonlinear system after all), hence a circuit breaker makes sense.

Criteria should be clear and transparent. Infections at rate X and rate of acceleration Y. Hospital admissions growing at X%/day. People don't like numbers, but they do like clarity.

Means of supporting the affected should be just as clear.

Regardless of the measures used, or the limitations in the data (false positive testing, confounded counting of positive admissions...), a robust interpretation of the patterns in multiple data streams, is that the situation in some parts of the country is grave, and there is little reason to think this will be different elsewhere at later times.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 1:56 pm
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TiRed for PM!


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:03 pm
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I do sums not politics 😉


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:04 pm
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I see Serco’s ‘World-Beating’ Test and Trace system has delivered its worst results yet. It’s now only getting 62% of contacts

What a total ****ing shambles!

How on earth are we meant to get on top of this with the Track and Trace system totally unfit for purpose and actually getting worse?


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:08 pm
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I wouldn't trust Helen Whately to put her own slip-on shoes on without cocking it up.

Utter shambles as usual


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:09 pm
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I see during Hancock’s half hour this morning he’s ruled out a circuit breaker in England.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:12 pm
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I see during Hancock’s half hour this morning he’s ruled out a circuit breaker in England.

Means nothing by this point, he will u-turn as he has countless times in the face of media pressure.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:14 pm
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As John Crace put it yesterday: they say they're definitely not going to do something, right up to the point where they hit the panic button and do precisely that


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:17 pm
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What an absolute cluster****.

I never thought it possible that they could raise the bar for incompetence from their previous cluster****s with exams and test and trace but astonishingly they are succeeding in doing just that. Starmer and co must be pissing themselves. I'm seriously beginning to wonder whether this govt will last til the next election.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:21 pm
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Even the hateful Daily Fail are saying that little Matty Handjob is only keeping his job as he'll be the perfect scapegoat when the inquiry starts


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:25 pm
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How on earth are we meant to get on top of this with the Track and Trace system totally unfit for purpose and actually getting worse?

If it makes you feel any better having experienced the testing system myself now I'm confident that even a 100% success rate of T&T finding contacts wouldn't be close to containing the virus as the testing methodology is so deeply flawed for anyone who has to self test, which now seems to include some of the drive-to sites.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:25 pm
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I've only ever viewed testing as a PROSPECTIVE tool for containing spread in those with the highest contacts (teachers, healthcare workers, transport workers...). And of course clinical diagnosis. It seems the general public think it is a tool to help them get their lives back to normal ASAP. This was never going to work and has been a huge distraction to what testing could achieve. There are a fixed number (A very big number) of available daily tests, but it helps when using a machine gun, to at least point it in the direction of the enemy rather than fire (almost) randomly at will.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:31 pm
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johnson's policy - ready, fire, aim


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:34 pm
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Do you think Helen Whately has yet registered what just happened?

null


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:38 pm
 Del
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Those Tory backbenchers are against any lockdown because they view it as too detrimental to the economy. The irony of that stance while being part of a government presiding over the economic disaster of Brexit appears to be lost on them. ****s.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:40 pm
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the general public think it is a tool to help them get their lives back to normal

The public think that because that's what they've been told. In my girl's school, if you've got a high temperature or a cough you get sent home and are told you need a clear test or to stay away for 2 weeks. So the message from the school is very clearly "get a test, get your normal life back".


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:45 pm
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We've been promoted to Tier 2 here in Erewash. Go us!


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 2:45 pm
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johnson’s policy – ready, fire, aim

surely - fire, aim, ready


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:00 pm
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Meanwhile, the Chinese are all like:

“If people want to die, you can’t persuade or stop them,” one user says. It’s becoming a common sentiment in China that, as one user puts it, “while Chinese lost two months of freedom” with quick and aggressive lockdown measures, “Westerners are only losing their lives”.

And the European Union are all like:

The EU body has also said countries should co-ordinate contact tracing and the eventual deployment of vaccines, giving priority to vulnerable communities.

edit: sorry, sauce - BBC News


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:02 pm
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johnson’s policy – ready, fire, aim

surely – fire, aim, ready

Nope, it's just fire, fire, fire. Aiming and readiness are for experts, not required here.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:05 pm
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It seems the general public think it is a tool to help them get their lives back to normal ASAP.

I wonder why that is?


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:08 pm
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binners
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I see Serco’s ‘World-Beating’ Test and Trace system has delivered its worst results yet. It’s now only getting 62% of contacts

They are only finding a fraction of the people who are covid +ve anyway.

Going off the figures from a few weeks ago - 1/200 were in infected (ONS survey), so about 300k across the country. Assume 10 days of being infected, so ~30k/day becoming infected. T&T was finding about 5-6k of those per day at the time, about 20%.

So whether TnT are finding 62% of 20%, or 100% of 20%, doesn't really make much difference in the overall scheme of things.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:09 pm
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From the Guardian (I know!):

One Labour MP in the telephone briefing said:

Shitshow doesn’t even begin to summarise that meeting with [care minister] Helen Whately. We let the Tory MPs go first and they piled into her saying: what’s the point of this meeting if you are just going to brief to the media that you’ve already made a decision?

and..

The meeting ended with Whately saying: “I can see there are opposing views here.” Apparently she was then “shouted down by everyone saying: no there aren’t, we all agree we don’t want tier 3”.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:13 pm
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Testing helps us know where we’re going (but we’re failing both to do that testing, and to read and react to what little it is telling us), and while prevalence is low TTI can help contain outbreaks and reintroduction… but only if the tracing works and isolation is supported so that people stick to it. Once the numbers are high enough and rising, like they are now, just about everywhere in the UK, the blunt tool of social distancing has to be used, whether we want that or not… testing and TTI would be swamped even if they were properly set up. Most importantly, social distancing needs clear communication and financial support… or it just won’t happen.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:14 pm
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T&T was finding about 5-6k of those per day at the time, about 20%

In the first wave the hospital admissions were, what, 5% of the total? 20% is at least an improvement.

PS not trying to defend the indefensible.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:15 pm
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So maybe it's been covered, but at what point (i.e. % of infections) does track and track need to reach to make a dent in this thing?


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:16 pm
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I wonder why that is?

Because that dick Vallance told them:

https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/test-track-and-trace-system-can-prevent-second-wave-of-coronavirus-vallance-says

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-tracing-can-stop-second-peak-insists-patrick-vallance-2s2jkhpcf

You'll note I'm reinforcing your point, Kelvin, not disagreeing. 🙂


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:24 pm
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So maybe it’s been covered, but at what point (i.e. % of infections) does track and track need to reach to make a dent in this thing?

Depends on what other measures are in place, and how many people are infected.

Testing and TTI are about containing small numbers of infected and their contacts (and their contacts)... they're not tools that are of much use when the numbers of infected are high and rising fast, especially if social distancing measures are weak.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 3:25 pm
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They are only finding a fraction of the people who are covid +ve anyway.

Going off the figures from a few weeks ago – 1/200 were in infected (ONS survey), so about 300k across the country. Assume 10 days of being infected, so ~30k/day becoming infected. T&T was finding about 5-6k of those per day at the time, about 20%.

So whether TnT are finding 62% of 20%, or 100% of 20%, doesn’t really make much difference in the overall scheme of things.

Frankly, World Beating or complete farce, I don't think it matters all that much.

A study by Kings College has shown that whilst 60% of people say they would self-isolate if asked to (which is very low IMO) only about 11% of people who've been told they've been exposed to someone who had test positive are actually self-isolating, worst still of people who actually have symptoms, only 18% are self-isolating.

You couple that with the fact a lot of people are avoiding using the app, or checking into places through fear of being asked to isolate and you can see why the spread has picked up so much.

If those figures are correct, then we've got a virus where 80% of people don't know they have it, and of the people who do, 80% of them aren't isolating.

This only backs up my personal belief that the current regs, despite what tier you're in, or whether you're in Wales, Scotland or NI won't work. Whilst a thin majority of people appear to fear the spread of the virus more than the social and economic cost, when push comes to shove the vast majority of people will act selfishly and we have only stark choices left. We go back to a near total lock-down like we had in March, only it'll have to be twice as long or we ask everyone over the age of say, 60 and anyone who is high risk to shield, or we accept that people are going to die, probably twice as many as Spring and ask the NHS to do what it can to save the people who can be saved, which was the original plan, and I believe it's Boris's real plan.

We've been talking about a circuit breaker a lot in Wales, I think this will work, in terms of reducing numbers in the short-term, meaning fewer deaths until numbers should naturally start to fall again in Spring, but it's not a fix, it's a hard reduction thing. We might have missed the boat, but a 2 week break now, could half the number of dead over the winter, they're projecting 80k at the moment (bearing in mind that projection has been as high as 250k) it could be 40k. So there's a fun thought, two week lock down, and we'll still lose 40k people.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 4:02 pm
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TTI has to reach about 80% of contacts within 48h or something in order to be able to make a significant dent in things. I'm not sure if I've got those numbers quite right but it is a performance level that is very challenging indeed for a competent well-organised state to achieve. On top of that, the contacts have to cooperate with the isolation, which requires material support for a large proportion of them with mortgages to pay and mouths to feed.

This shower of shit might as well not be trying for all the difference it would make. Well, in fact it's clear they aren't actually trying at all. Utterly farcical, no-one in charge gives a shiny shit and the press are hardly any better.

Elect a fraudulent clown, get a fraudulent clownshow. Who could have predicted?


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 4:35 pm
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two week lock down, and we’ll still lose 40k people.

2 week lock down and we save 40k people - always look on the bright side of life


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 4:37 pm
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2 week lock down and we save 40k people – always look on the bright side of life

Yeah, I tried to, but I couldn't bring myself to type it that way. It's too depressing really.

I think we've reached the point when the only thing left to hope for is a change in luck.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 4:48 pm
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Andy Burnham has just made a statement.

He is most definitely not *ing about!

"Greater Manchester will stand firm. We are fighting back"

He stressed that ALL Greater Manchesters MP's and council leaders, from all parties, are unanimously behind the statement. To summarise: the north west is not going to have its economy sacrificed to save the economy of the south east. Unless you give us a full financial support package you can * right off with your Tier 3!

I'd love to see how that was received at number 10

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316752870818148352?s=20


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 4:50 pm
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We’ve been promoted to Tier 2 here in Erewash. Go us!

I am in Derby, so seems inevitable now we will join you in a week, around 150/100k appears to be the tipping point and we are at 124 currently


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 4:53 pm
 Del
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Unless you give us a full financial support package you can **** right off with your Tier 3!

The flip side of course being a higher number of infections outside these areas too. Sadly.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 5:01 pm
 Chew
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Unless you give us a full financial support package you can **** right off with your Tier 3!

Completely agree with everything Andy Burnham said.

And when he mentions unanimous support, that includes a few high ranking Tory MP's

Will be interesting to see how it all pans out.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 5:06 pm
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This is actual madness, national measures have been put in place and a part of the country have gone nah jog on mate its not happening. How can a gov' get it so wrong. To quote Ed from a few weeks ago its "Incompetence and failure of governance" surly a vote of no confidence will come soon.

Surly its common sense to get this all squared away with the relevant people before you announce it to the public. the mind boggle. I cant believe people voted for these jokers.


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 5:18 pm
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Burnham was always an impressive politician and today is yet another example of that.
An articulate, factual, focussed speech.
Compare'n'contrast with johnson's bumbling, waffling; a walking fact free zone.
Both Starmer and Burnham showing johnson what leadership looks like.
I can imagine the atmosphere at No10 being akin to Hitler's bunker; will the 'leader' end it in the same way?


 
Posted : 15/10/2020 5:28 pm
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