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Why should the response to the virus be guided by what the great unwashed think?
Because the government are populist reactionary idjits trying to please as many people as possible in the shortest of short terms. There is no long game here.
Just seen a link to the great new traffic light system. Apparently the top level with max restrictions is.......Green! FFS!
Will there be a catchy 3 word slogan?
I love a good slogan, me
Remember the last time we were given some clear ‘bands’… describing restrictions and when they would be introduced and removed, and why? No, I didn’t think so. We were though. They didn’t stick with it for a whole week.
Just seen a link to the great new traffic light system. Apparently the top level with max restrictions is…….Green! FFS!
Rimmer : Step up to red alert.
Kryten : Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb.
Rimmer : There's always some excuse, isn't there?
Apparently the top level with max restrictions is…….Green!
Is that a lazy journo thing, or a government document or communication? I suppose, if it's the first... it still shows how the "a source says" style of informing the public is part of the reason we're all increasingly confused.
It was the Mail Online, which has now been updated.
I don't know about anyone else, but anecdotally this second wave is shaping up to be worse than the first. In the past week I've heard of 3 infections of people at my work, and just now about infections in year 10 of my kid's school. Back in March there were none at work or in school.
There's no direction or leadership coming from govt, no apparent sign that they intend to support people as they did in March, and as a result absolutely no appetite for another lockdown among the public. It's going to be utter chaos.
I had pretty much this, 3-4 dry coughs every 10 to 15 mins for 2 days
That's not encouraging. Although his were phelmy coughs apparently. He obviously discounted having covid out of hand so won't be getting a test. I'll maybe keep myself to myself for a few days and hope I'm fine.
and as a result absolutely no appetite for another lockdown among the public
Chatting to folk I know (mostly locally) they're happy to do another "lockdown" as we had earlier this year on a couple of provisos; everyone else does too (accepting there will always be a few knob-ends) and that there is support from the Govt for both income and businesses. I think the majority accept that we can't have an indefinite lockdown due to the economic cost and that knock-on impacts on folks physical and mental well-being but that another 4 week period should be sustainable to try to knock the numbers back down.
everyone else does too (accepting there will always be a few knob-ends) and that there is support from the Govt for both income and businesses
And those are exactly the two things that the govt appears to have ruled out. Looks like we're heading for the US approach. Essentially the message from govt is 'We can't be arsed, you're on your own'.
I love a good slogan, me
That's a rubbish slogan. HTH
Chatting to folk I know (mostly locally) they’re happy to do another “lockdown” as we had earlier this year on a couple of provisos; everyone else does too (accepting there will always be a few knob-ends) and that there is support from the Govt for both income and businesses
Yep, I'd agree with that. A set time period (4 weeks I'd guess), clear rules on what can and can't be done that everyone adheres too, and support for the businesses and people it affects.
If you can't do the latter then people will be less likely to adhere. I don't see for instance how you can close down the entire hospitality industry again and not offer any support for it, it'll simply not exist when you reopen.
I don’t know about anyone else, but anecdotally this second wave is shaping up to be worse than the first. In the past week I’ve heard of 3 infections of people at my work, and just now about infections in year 10 of my kid’s school. Back in March there were none at work or in school.
I don't want to do anything to try to defend the Government, but in reality there were little or no testing done for Covid in March. Back in Feb and most of March it was tearing through the population completely invisibly. We were still having mass sporting events, bars and pubs were packed, shops, no social distancing, no masks until the 3rd week of March.
The Government provide some graphs here.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
The cases graph is scary, but without going all Trump on it, it represents a spike in testing as much as it represents a spike in numbers.
Looking at the graphs for Healthcare and Deaths, yes it's obviously rising, but it's not rising as sharply as it did in March. Will it be worse than last time? That's the million dollar question really.
To know, I think we have to know how has it occurred? Boris would like us to believe that it's because we all got a bit lax about it, and if we just listen to them now, it'll come down again... I don't know how true that it, in Caerphilly near where I live, they went into local lockdown around 4 weeks ago, numbers have fallen massively but not enough (at the moment) to let them out of it. Other regions went into lock down a few weeks later, some places have improved, some have gotten worse. There's loads of valid theories why, but they're holding steady at best.
The NHS seemed to be absolutely sure we'd have another peak now, it's 'Cold and Flu season' when we close windows and spend more time indoors creating the perfect environment for it to spread. If that's the case it could well be worse, because it could carry on until Spring. That said, if we case our minds back to March / Apr and May this year, we had glorious weather for the most part, as we did in Sept when this all started. Maybe Boris is right? Either way, if we can't vaccinate our old and vulnerable soon and it does carry on until April/May again, it might result in more deaths, even if we manage to keep the curve flatter this time.
The Oxford / AstraZeneca phase 3 vaccine trial is due to end this month or next, and there's talk the Government may decide to use emergency powers to approve it's use without a license for the most vulnerable people straight away, which could make a huge difference, not without risk of course.
The cases graph is scary, but without going all Trump on it, it represents a spike in testing as much as it represents a spike in numbers.
Unfortunately the hospital admissions and deaths a tell us that the rise in cases since July is real whatever the postive test graphs show or how many tests are done. The number of cases is no doubt lower than before the Spring lockdown but it's high enough to be putting stress on the healthcare system again and it's hard to ignore that.
Unfortunately the hospital admissions and deaths a tell us that the rise in cases since July is real whatever the positive test graphs show or how many tests are done. The number of cases is no doubt lower than before the Spring lockdown but it’s high enough to be putting stress on the healthcare system again and it’s hard to ignore that.
Oh absolutely, there's no disputed that we've had a rise in cases since September and things are worse now than in July.
The questions was is this second spike (I refuse to say wave, as this is still the same wave) worst than the first one? In terms of growth of numbers, no, it's rising as a lower rate as you'd expect given the current SD rules etc that weren't in place in Feb / March.
As for putting stress on the Healthcare system. I can only comment on my local Hospitals because my Wife works in the NHS in our area. At the absolute speak in April things were dire, we were up to 85%-90% of ITU capacity. That isn't unusual for a ITU unit, patients come and go often on the basis of capacity as need, but as cases were rising there was a real chance they'd run out of room. As for the rest of the system - Hospitals were near empty. By cancelling electives, outpatient surgeries and discharging people there has never been so much spare capacity. Now we have around 400 extra ITU beds and provision for a lot more, thanks to expansion, temporary wards etc, plus extra training for Docs and Nurses in acute care. Obviously they're not relaxed about it, but our NHS trust isn't expecting to be over-run in any credible scenario, they're better than that.
One of the interesting things about this virus is how hard it is to diagnose. During the early stages, when the only people who got tested were people who were symptomatic, only 5% of tests were positive. That either means that for every 20 people that real doctors thought might have the disease only 1 actually did, or the tests are generating a lot of false negatives. Assuming it isn't the latter, this probably explains the huge disparity between the numbers of people saying 'I'm sure I've had it' and the levels of antibodies detected in the population.
Boris would like us to believe that it’s because we all got a bit lax about it, and if we just listen to them now, it’ll come down again
We haven't. The fact is, in the absence of significant levels of immunity, the population rate of infections is a dynamic system with a significant lag from interventions to outcome. We relaxed constraints and sent children back to school in early Sept. That released the brakes and the train of infections-admissions-deaths builds up a head of steam. OK we still have some constraints (brakes applied, many locally), so the acceleration is (thankfully) not as rapid as March. But we have relaxed enough to accelerate.
The trick will be to apply just enough brake to avoid acceleration. Systems with a lag (hysteresis) are hard to control - a good example is the economy. We see boom and bust cycles, and this epidemic will be no different. the typical timescale for change is about two weeks.
Brakes are going on to try and slow down the acceleration in admissions and deaths, we know that full lockdown is more than enough to control spread, but that is economically and socially challenging. But where is the point of equipoise? (I don't know BTW and neither does the Government, nor Sunetra Gupta) - there will be one. It may cost excess lives to find it over the winter months, or (as I predict) we will trade flu deaths for COVID19 deaths.
That isn’t unusual for a ITU unit, patients come and go often on the basis of capacity as need, but as cases were rising there was a real chance they’d run out of room
BTW ITUs did not run out of room due to patient triage - when they are less occupied, the very elderly may be admitted. When they were at near-capacity they did not. Grim but a sad fact of life.
Some sensible explaining from the Covid Symptom Study
@n0b0dy0ftheg0at keeping crews together is the general way it works but I'm working for an agency and we cover wherever crew are needed. We cover for sickness and holidays so can move around a lot, could be on five different rounds in a week. I've just gone on one though where they don't have a second loader at all so the idea is I'll stay on that now. I imagine in the Post Office the biggest issue is the morning sort and throwing up your walk, I'm not sure how it is now but 30 odd years ago when I was a postman for a couple of years you were working shoulder to shoulder then.
Its all well and good focusing on the contact rate but if people are ignoring the request then what's the point.
Studies showed what, less than 20% adherence rate.
But where is the point of equipoise?
You mean the point where - in the absence of significant herd immunity - the infection/admission/death rates remains constant? Doesn't that beg the question of what rates of infection/admission/death you're trying to keep constant (I think you call it the R? Plz excuse my layman's knowledge)? Presumably, the higher rate requires harder braking to keep constant as well?
I think we're back to some confusion about the ends of these measures. Are we trying to minimise the death rate or 'optimise' the death rate (sounds heartless I know) to the ends of preventing the ICUs being overwhelmed but preserving economic activity?
A three tier easy to understand* system sounds good to me, easy to know which band you are in.
*Assuming it is easy to understand. I find it hard to believe we won't have a half term lockdown, but now there's science to prove it delays but not removes C19, I s'pose it won't happen.
Systems with a lag (hysteresis) are hard to control – a good example is the economy. We see boom and bust cycles, and this epidemic will be no different. the typical timescale for change is about two weeks.
It's probably more like an autopilot in turbulence since money and finance almost have lives of their own, but I take your point. OTOH, the technical analogy shouldn't be leaned on too hard since human behaviour in open (social) systems seems to always defy being treated as solely a technical problem.
You mean the point where – in the absence of significant herd immunity – the infection/admission/death rates remains constant
Yes, R = 1.
There is no herd immunity of note, it has not played a significant role in the transmission dynamics. Were it so, hospitalisations would not be accelerating. There is some balance between lockdown and where we are now. We don't know what combination of education, hospitality, work, public transport leads to balance. But we probably aren't far from it - a lot closer than March, that is for sure.
the technical analogy shouldn’t be leaned on too hard
The analogy is really why we see cycles of boom and bust, nothing more.
Not sure if this is one for here, the Boris Johnson thread or the Easing of Scottish Lockdown thread but it's a good article.
but now there’s science to prove it delays but not removes C19
Say what? There are countries that currently have single figures of people infected. Nowhere can have zero figures while it allows travel from countries with thousands of infected people… but there are proven controls that can drive infection rates right down to close to zero. We might chose not to do so, but that is about politics and society, not science. Our “lockdown” worked (but took longer than it should have, because of a late start)… what came after it (you know, the things the government said we needed to control the virus after lockdown, and their chums are still failing to deliver months later) are failing.
A three tier easy to understand* system sounds good to me, easy to know which band you are in.
*Assuming it is easy to understand.
completely agree, my worry is that we have 5 point tiered system at the moment
but its a vague & the government havent actually stuck to it
eg workplaces were supposed to remain closed until level 2 but were were encouraged to go back to work, pubs & cafes etc at level 3
There was an example of how Covid screws up hospitals on the radio earlier. They interviewed a very grateful 57-year-old sporty guy got Covid 6 months ago. 3 months in a coma in intensive care, three heart attacks, one pacemaker, a list of other horrors I've forgotten, then when he came round he had to learn to do everything again; to move limbs, to eat, to walk. Six months in hospital!
If 15 000 a day are testing positive maybe twice that are catching the virus if you take into account completely asymptomatic and those who don't bother to test but assume most people with some symptoms will test. So 300 000 in 10 days, 3 million in 100 days, 11 million a year - over 4 years to herd immunity with several hospitals devoting 20-40% of capacity to Covid.
We (the French) need to do better at keeping our noses clean.
over 4 years to herd immunity
if immunity only lasts for <year like other coronaviruses we may be in trouble, if its longer like SARS seems to we may be OK....
There are countries at level 1 in that old chart… but we’re still pretending it’s not possible… because we can’t be arsed to spend a month or two making it happen… so we’ll stay near top of what chart all winter, destroying what’s left of many sectors and counting the job losses and ignoring the cost of the “do as little as possible” approach in the long term.
We are at 4 on the Nandos scale - you'll be hard-pressed to get a minister to state even that!
A three point scale would be easier:
1) Do more RED
2) Do the same AMBER
3) Do less GREEN
We're at the Do more point. definitely RED.
Today's data as they do not show it on the BBC
See if you can spot a trend that matches Nando's Code 4. 3000 admissions and 1000 deaths/day was April.
All a bit shit but...one (not me) couldgo out on the sauce tonight, tomorrow, Sat, Sun, Mon & Tues for a good old mingle before any changes to the current regs.
Good to know that our political 'leaders' are so on top of the situation.
because we can’t be arsed to spend a month or two making it happen…
What measures in the next two months would get us to "Covid no longer present in the UK"?
Another complete 2-month lock down wouldn't, that's already been proven. No country that's had the level of cases European countries currently have spread over their entire territory has got back to single figures.
Edukator
Free MemberIf 15 000 a day are testing positive maybe twice that are catching the virus if you take into account completely asymptomatic and those who don’t bother to test but assume most people with some symptoms will test. So 300 000 in 10 days, 3 million in 100 days, 11 million a year – over 4 years to herd immunity with several hospitals devoting 20-40% of capacity to Covid.
Even if that were sustainable, which it's probably not, and if your estimate of the level of hospital usage is accurate, which I doubt, the issue is still the same as it always has been- we have no idea at all if people develop reliable immunity for long enough. Care to gamble an entire country's future on whether or not it's greater or lesser than 4 years? That'd take the same sort of mind that exports food from a country that's having a famine.
P-Jay
Full Member
The cases graph is scary, but without going all Trump on it, it represents a spike in testing as much as it represents a spike in numbers.
You sure about that?
[img] 
[/img]
That's the uk.
Scotland looks like this:
[img] 
[/img]
looks to me like we are on the exact same trajectory.
whether we are on the same line or not, that's basically what I'll be keeping an eye on to see how we are doing.
if your estimate of the level of hospital usage is accurate, which I doubt,
It's based on this:
We've just gone through 20% and the current level of new cases will take us to higher in a few weeks, perhaps 40%.
“Covid no longer present in the UK”?
None - eradication is not an aim for SARS-COV2 management. It isn't going to happen.
Worry not about cases, worry about hospital-seeking behaviour as a surrogate marker of underlying cases. Deaths are very predictable from hospital admissions I am afraid. there is about a 1/7 chance they will not come back at the moment.
My French isn't the best, but I don't see how you jump from that article which says corona usage is above 20% and rising, to stating that "20-40%" is some sort of sustainable run rate for the 4 years.
"Another complete 2-month lock down"- before you can have "another" of something, you have to have had one. The UK's never had a lockdown.
Another complete 2-month lock down wouldn’t, that’s already been proven.
We never had a proper lockdown in the UK. We had restrictions. Quite severe ones, but not a lockdown compared to what others introduced.
That leaves aside the fact that we left it too late, didn't really enforce it all that thoroughly,and released it a bit early.
Edukator, “lockdown” (or other means of the achieving the most effective social distancing) can reduce cases to a level where other measures can be effectively used to further isolate the remaining cases, and stop any freshly introduced cases from spreading. You can look to other countries as to what those measures are. This is my last reply to you though on this topic, all your posts seem to be written to elect a response, and when people do respond, you just jump/dance around in a manner that is too frustrating to be worth engaging with. Please respect that I’m not in any conversation with you from here on in this thread. Thanks.
Fine, Kelvin. I'll continue to reply to your posts though, especially when you post things like this:
There are countries at level 1 in that old chart… but we’re still pretending it’s not possible… because we can’t be arsed to spend a month or two making it happen…
Level 1 is "Covid 29 no longer present in the UK"
That is not going to happen even with a lockdown as strict as Spain, France and Italy had. The virus continues to circulate among those involved in essentila services. It's not that "we can't be arsed".
You keep threatening to stop posting or ignore me, feel free, I'll continue to comment on your posts when what you suggest is so obvoulsy flawed and would create economic, social and health damage much higher than balancing the level of economic activity and stress on hospitals.
Leave me alone.
How about splitting the forums (fora?) into two parts?
Paying (full) members and non-paying (free) members.
If you're a paying member that gets you full view and comment access.
If you're a non-paying member you can only view and comment on posts from other non-payers.
It sometimes feels that threads are dominated by non-payers - to the detriment of paying members.
Some of the features of Covid 19 and people's reactions to it, or why it's such a successful virus:
Many people don't even know they have it. Another group of people have none of the classic symptoms but very mild symptoms that could easily be confused with other mild ills such as allergies or mild colds.
Many people refuse to change their habits or isolate even when they test positive, it's on the coronanomics thread.
Many people with symptoms don't test and carry on as usual.
It's highly infectious, contact with surfaces, airborn, even fine aerosols from breathing can transmit in indoor spaces.
People are infectious before they show symptoms.
It's spread worldwide, even if one country has a radical attempt at elimination and succeeds it will then become isolated from the rest of the world because of the need for long quarantaine periods to avoid recontamination.
The vast majority of countries have opted for management strategies rather than elimination. They're all in search of the grahl, measures that maintain R below 1 without provoking economic depression and social chaos. And to make measures work they have to keep the public on side. Measures have to be seen as constructive rather than punitive.
Suggesting measures is fine, make sure they stand up to examination because if one makes a suggestion on a public forum one is inviting the public to comment on it.
I might be a non-payer but you'll find logic, realism and pragamtism in what I post. With facts to back it up from all over Europe.
How about splitting the forums (fora?) into two parts?
Paying (full) members and non-paying (free) members.
If you’re a paying member that gets you full view and comment access.
If you’re a non-paying member you can only view and comment on posts from other non-payers.
It sometimes feels that threads are dominated by non-payers – to the detriment of paying members.
Not even sure where to start with this. A very bad suggestion! (From an on-and-off subscription payer and long term forum lurker)
There's too much noise about this carry on. Couple of simple points that everyone in the country should be very angry about. The tories are making an absolute ct of this... again. And they are also refusing to pay for the necessary action going forward, ie supporting people and business.
We really should be kicking down the doors of downing street right now.
The warning signs have been there for over a month now.
Dither and delay, eh...
There are countries at level 1 in that old chart… but we’re still pretending it’s not possible… because we can’t be arsed to spend a month or two making it happen… so we’ll stay near top of what chart all winter, destroying what’s left of many sectors and counting the job losses and ignoring the cost of the “do as little as possible” approach in the long term.
I would somewhat agree with this.
None – eradication is not an aim for SARS-COV2 management. It isn’t going to happen
I'd also agree with that
No country that’s had the level of cases European countries currently have spread over their entire territory has got back to single figures.
And kinda agree with that.
This is something we have reflected on quite a lot here in Australia - seeing the complete balls-up the UK is continuing to make of crisis management. The sad fact is: the window for action needed to be level 2 today (and be pursuing level one) was in March. No way you can get there now because of the lead-in of incompetence and mismanagement.
The things that Australia and NZ are doing now to get to level 2 and 1 are only possible because our number of cases are so low - you're never going to get there from where you are now. They are only possible because of the steps that were taken back in March and April - and more recently in Victoria (which is another story).
A good example is track and trace. Yes we have an app over here - but the REAL tracking and tracing is done by a team of humans - they interview every positive case, find out who their contacts were, and go and chase them down for testing. Our premier (state governor) stands in front of the press every morning and tells you where the 3 new cases in NSW over the last 24 hours have been found, tells you where those people went whilst infectious, what bus they rode on, which Cafe they went to etc etc. Appeals for anyone who may have come into contact with them to come forward. We had a positive case in my neighboring suburb - a young lad working in a local (big) supermarket whilst infected. They set up a pop-up testing clinic in that suburb - no appointment required, don't need to have symptoms..... just come and get tested (thousands did) - results back within 24 hours, so people aren't dissuaded by having to self isolate for too long after getting a test.
And even that's not enough to get down to zero. In New South Wales, we've just had 14 days of zero "community transmission" - but that run's been broken by 5 new cases today. Even our goal is not eradication - our goal is to keep the numbers down by track/trace/test/isolate, so that life can continue with as few restrictions as possible.
I think all that you can hope for in the UK is that you hang on by your fingernails (both in terms of economy and health outcomes) until a vaccine is available.
I think all that you can hope for in the UK is that you hang on by your fingernails (both in terms of economy and health outcomes) until a vaccine is available.
Yep, what was it, 30% of contacts not traced last week? Its not working and we must be spending millions on a system that doesnt work.
The problem isn’t hysteresis and lags, the problem is it’s highly virulent due to presymptomatic infection and anything short of a severe lockdown just isn’t enough to keep it in check.
It started increasing in July when pubs were reopened, despite what the SAGE idiots were saying at the time. Add in schools and an increase in workplace attendance, it was only ever going to go one way.
anything short of a severe lockdown just isn’t enough to keep it in check.
See my post - we are not in severe lockdown, and we are keeping it in check. This is the case in lots of other countries. A severe lockdown is required BECAUSE it hasn't been kept in check.
Remember the idiots in SAGE told us that R was less than 1, all through July and August when we could see the number of cases increasing steadily. About two doublings from 400 to 1600 per day before they even noticed. ****ing muppets.
Meanwhile, back in gravytrain land, we're paying for a thousand Deloitte consultants for our world beating test and trace fiasco system.
There does seem to be a deliberate policy of keeping quiet about coronavirus in schools. I can't think of another area of daily life where so many people mix so freely without social distancing.
It started increasing in July when pubs were reopened, despite what the SAGE idiots were saying at the time. Add in schools and an increase in workplace attendance, it was only ever going to go one way.
was it not just last month they were saying ---- back to work if you can - Keep Pret in business !
- We just had an email out saying no attendance to office or workshop without expressed permission from management and QHSE UNTIL january 18th 2021
And our "world beating" test and trace thingy has apparently only sent *one* alert about an infection at a pub:
Money well spent.
It started increasing in July when pubs were reopened, despite what the SAGE idiots were saying at the time.
It’s very hard to see from hospital admissions much of an inflection, but the eye of faith hints at a slight (and I mean very slight) deviation from log-linearity at early to mid August. It’s a pretty subtle effect though.
The obvious inflection at the end of August and early September is highly correlated with schools.
The failings of the systems and processes by all responsible are clearly not helping, but no matter how clear the rules are, how well they are understood by everybody, there is a significant proportion of the populace who will never follow them. They just don’t care.
I commute through Newcastle every day. In all of the common areas there are groups congregating (mostly 16-25 year olds); kids are playing in the streets/play parks as normal with their mates; and in retail there are people mixing indoors (all ages) from more than one household (unless same-sex relationships are now the majority).
It’s not a surprise to see Newcastle struggling with rising infection. I’m surprised it’s not higher.
No rule changes will change this behaviour for these people, apart from a total lockdown. I’m not qualified to know if that’s a good idea, but it’s the only option, based on what I see every day.
And [s]our[/s] English & Welsh “world beating” test and trace thingy has apparently only sent *one* alert about an infection at a pub:
Speak for your own country.
There does seem to be a deliberate policy of keeping quiet about coronavirus in schools. I can’t think of another area of daily life where so many people mix so freely without social distancing.
I dont think any other workplace would be allowed to reopen without PPE or distancing.
Remember the idiots in SAGE told us that R was less than 1
I don’t subscribe to the cult of R. I consider it inestimable other than >< 1 due to its confounding with other factors such as period of infectiousness. I do however believe that exponential processes are best viewed on logarithmic scales.
I think we are about to find that schools are a significant contributor to transmission, which is the null hypothesis from influenza. The beauty of looking at england is the sample size and reduced fluctuations compared to Scotland, Wales and NI.
The ONS and React studies both show no rise in community infection during August, I put up my analysis a a week ago of React. There’s at least a week lag between policy changes and rising cases/admissions just due to incubation.
I think we are about to find that schools are a significant contributor to transmission, which is the null hypothesis from influenza.
If by that you mean this was blindingly obvious from the start, I agree.
Problem is we are so far down the road of schools business as usual changing tack will be very hard both for Boris and chums and schools.
matt_outandabout
Full MemberAnd our English & Welsh “world beating” test and trace thingy has apparently only sent *one* alert about an infection at a pub:
Speak for your own country.
My sincerest apologies. Have you really not gotten around to leaving yet?
If by that you mean this was blindingly obvious from the start, I agree.
Indeed. SARS-COV2 transmission = influenza transmission is the null hypothesis. Not seen anything to reject it on the macro scale so far. A lot of heat and noise about whether children are infectious, suffer morbidity and mortality. But I think it will come down to what we first suspected - which looks like influenza - normal transmission with lower morbidity than influenza.
there is a significant proportion of the populace who will never follow them
And no one seems to have a clue how to tackle that behaviour, so we just seem to shrug and ignore it.
It's now a week since my lads college had it's first student with a positive test. Picked up on a random ONS test 12 days ago, was in school for three days showing no symptoms before their results came back. Close contacts at school all told to isolate.
Thus far, no reports of any more positive tests linked to it.* It's a strange one, transmission in school. Or a lottery.
*Assuming this poor 17 year old isn't single handedly responsible for Nottinghams wider problem this week!
All the data I’ve seen points to 18-30 transmission rather than school age?
I must have missed this a week or so ago - really fascinating study.
If the findings are robust, it could help explain so much of why certain countries, and subgroups of their population, have been hit so hard. Obviously, it's just one potential risk factor for severe illness among many - age, weight etc.
So basically, prevalence of this particular gene is higher in parts of Western Europe and South Asia, and lower in Asia generally.
So, it's possible that it could be one factor that makes people of South Asian descent in the UK much more likely to get really ill and die from Covid. And more generally, one of the reasons why Asia seems to be doing better than India.
One interesting nugget is that one of the areas with the highest prevalance of the gene in Europe is northern Italy.
Having certain genes of neanderthal origin apparently makes you more prone to T2 diabetes, and inflammatory conditions such as lupus, which hints that you may be more likely to mount the wrong kind of immune response to Covid.
All the data I’ve seen points to 18-30 transmission rather than school age?
Data wont exist if kids dont get ill
Interesting link on outbreaks in schools, not exactly mainstream national media though, so it does feel like there's a policy of non reporting https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/18769542.coronavirus-outbreaks-england-spreading-mostly-schools/
Interesting graphs that I can't seem to show as images, sorry.
From sky news.....
A widely-circulated open letter calling on governments to pursue herd immunity is counting homeopaths, therapists and fake names among its "medical" signatories, leading to accusations that it falsely represents scientific support for the controversial position.
The Great Barrington Declaration, a letter organised by prominent advocates of herd immunity, claims to have been signed by more than 15,000 scientists and medical practitioners, as well as more than 150,000 members of the general public.
Yet Sky News found dozens of fake names on the list of medical signatories, which anyone can add to if they tick a box and enter a name. These included Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a "Dr of Hard Sums".
I don’t subscribe to the cult of R. I consider it inestimable other than >< 1 due to its confounding with other factors such as period of infectiousness.
><1 was precisely the point. They said <1, the data said >1. SAGE also published daily growth rates which are more directly interpretable and which were just as obviously wrong.
Hospital and death rates lagged because the growth was initially in young adults, who don't (much) go to hospital or die.
SAGE member Jeremy Farrar is now going around saying "told you so". The facts show very clearly that this is not the case.
MPs to get a £3300 pay rise next year. Absolute ****ing disgrace
Interesting link on outbreaks in schools, not exactly mainstream national media though, so it does feel like there’s a policy of non reporting.
This is kind of stuff they need to be publicising to explain where they are with policy. Mind you, less than 300 cases out of 782, not clear if it's kids being infected or teachers, so still more detailed investigation needed. By real people on the ground, not by apps or Servo call centres.
“Dr of Hard Sums”
Damn! found out... I wouldn't take these signatory things too seriously. I would, however, consider the merits (or otherwise) of the arguments. I simply do not subscribe to the immunity view (that Gupta has backtracked from), and nor do I believe we can "protect the vulnerable". We do that each year with influenza. Some years it works well, others less well. And as someone with morbidity, I still think we know so little about the disease of SARS-COV2 infection (beyond pneumonia). It is far too early for sweeping generalisations.
Feynman summed it up: “if you thought that science was certain – well that’s just an error on your part”.
You might like to read this week's NEJM Editorial. It pulls no punches. Utterly damning.
the growth was initially in young adults, who don’t (much) go to hospital or die.
It didn't really show in REACT and the ONS data - but age breakdown is only from mid August. But it is also fair to say that the testing was so confounded as to be unreliable (and still is). If pressed, I would say that we had R on the run at <1 until late July, Then 1 or thereabouts for low daily incidence with gentle increase over August noted in the younger generation. That is the hysteresis - then a big acceleration with schools opening. But I model the data, I don't estimate R.
Ignore my earlier post - college update just come through to say they've had four new cases this week, but none are connected to each other or last week's case, so no evidence of in college transmission.
Starting to feel like a game of creeping death.....
that indie sage 😬😬😬😳. Hospitals in the north to hit same admission rate as London on march lockdown day in a week!!
REACT-5 data released today from Imperial. Last Friday it was "Some evidence that the epidemic growth was slowing down". I believe the scientific term is retraction...
My analysis of the full data below. @thecaptain see (with the eye of faith) if you can spot the rise in August - the model is an exponential growth/decline cubic function through all the observations.
On a log-plot, the nadir is in fact the third week in July, but some uncertainty of course. Plotted on a log-2 scale so you can read off the doubling time, which is about 4 days.
