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If they try and enforce fines for parents acting to stop the virus entering their homes (due to elderly or at risk people being in their home) the fight back will be far firmer than they imagine.
There is something new in the guidelines issues last night about this, according to the “what’s new” summary… but I haven’t got that far yet.
+
Where children are not able to attend school as parents and carers are following clinical or public health advice, for example, self-isolation or family isolation, the absence will not be penalised.
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All other pupils must attend school. Schools should bear in mind the potential concerns of pupils, parents and households who may be reluctant or anxious about returning and put the right support in place to address this. This may include pupils who have themselves been shielding previously but have been advised that this is no longer necessary, those living in households where someone is clinically vulnerable, or those concerned about the comparatively increased risk from coronavirus (COVID-19), including those from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) backgrounds or who have certain conditions such as obesity and diabetes.
If parents of pupils with significant risk factors are concerned, we recommend schools discuss their concerns and provide reassurance of the measures they are putting in place to reduce the risk in school. Schools should be clear with parents that pupils of compulsory school age must be in school unless a statutory reason applies (for example, the pupil has been granted a leave of absence, is unable to attend because of sickness, is absent for a necessary religious observance).
It’s going to be messy… that can be read as if acting on GP or clinic advice for family members at risk should not result in fines, but also as if the government bringing shielding to end means that kids in those households must be in school (and therefore liable to fines if absent).
Thank you Kelvin.
If it is a child you are worried about, I would get “supporting evidence” from your GP or clinic, ready to back up removing them from in school attendance, and requesting at home learning support, in case that becomes necessary. That’s my intention for next week anyway. If you’re worried about someone else in your home, I think you might have to be ready to fight against any fines if you decide to shut the household off again this autumn… I imagine schools and councils will see this as futile and avoid such battles though, whatever the government is ‘currently’ saying. The real battle will be where schools say they can’t afford to offer, and don’t have the staff for, at home learning.
Tired, pretty much every one of the R numbers you wrote are pretty badly wrong
They are largely illustrative as I think the values are so confounded by so many other parts of the model - assumptions about incubation, infectiousness, mixing patterns.... as to be unhelpful. The fishing vessel example is impressive - in a cold well-mixed environment, about 80% of people developed the infection. That's an extreme upper bound on transmissibility. The past data on cruise ships and nursing homes can now be viewed in a different light with the advent of serology that was not available.
I'm looking at whether we can even detect the impact of immunity on transmission (unlikely) in the presence of contact restrictions. I think schools will have some impact on transmission but it is hard to quantify how much to be honest. There is little evidence that children cannot be infected not pass the infection onto others, particularly secondary school age children. There is no evidence that they suffer significant morbidity, but then nor do many adults who present as asymptomatic. Hence I am most interested in tracking and trying to predict deaths over all else. The above was my reasonable worst-case.
In the absence of protection (vaccine/antibodies) I would ramp up prospective self-testing, schools testing and workplace testing, isolate those positive but keep all schools open as a priority. For those who have been shielding, rates of infection are now very low, but I would personally continue to take physical precautions where possible.
Thanks again Kelvin.
Could you point me in the direction of where that first quote came from. I can see it will be useful.
The details: it's me isolating. We've been shielding as a family as I've been classed as "clinically extremely vulnerable". The thing is, it's not a permanent problem but is due to the treatment I've been recieving over the summer, and things are looking up. Treatment has been working, fingers crossed, and White blood cell count is predicted to be back to normal, or near enough, by the end of October, and I'll be returning into work then (will work from home until then). The family have been so careful over hygiene, and made some big sacrifices already, that it seems wrong to risk it all going wrong for the sake of a couple of months. Can't really go into more detail online as there's still people who should know but don't due to shielding/isolation.
Colournoise linked to the new guidance in the other thread.
Edit: no, sorry, that was just the PR… I’ll get you a link.
See the ‘Attendance’ section here:
What school year is your child? Do what’s best for them (ie keep you safe), but what help you need to push for as regards home learning this term, and the realistic expectations of getting it, might depend on that. Have you contacted the head of year yet?
Hope all goes well for you.
If it comes to it, can you afford a bit of private tuition over zoom etc? Your school should be able to tell you what is being missed, and even assign and mark work, but face to face tuition might not be possible.
I’m curious as to why case numbers are spiking in France and Spain etc but not here.
I don’t think they would be any worse than us for safe practices?
Either we are a few weeks behind the likes of Spain or France, or their culture of more physical contact/greetings is a factor, or maybe more if the UK population is still trying to follow the guidance, despite what media headlines, Facebook idiots and the "glass half empty" types on here are all trying to show.
Probably a combination of all three
The same points were raised before the first spike. Except this time there's less transit and more in transit precaution from those countrys, and Londons transport hub is far less congested.
And more personal protection of course, although this feels highly varied by locale.
Thanks again kelvin.
You’ve all been following this guy, yes?
https://twitter.com/xandvt/status/1300151240899416071?s=21
https://twitter.com/xandvt/status/1300181024735977473?s=21
Iceland has a relatively small population and a company that developed a pcr test very early on to test its populace (300k people). For comparison, that’s typically less than two weeks of passenger arrivals at Heathrow.
Testing system creaking already. Bodes well for the cold season.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53990068
Weird. There’s a testing place about 2 miles away from me in North London. If I was told to go to Cardiff, I wouldn’t.
Weird. There’s a testing place about 2 miles away from me in North London. If I was told to go to Cardiff, I wouldn’t.
My local one has gone from being drop in, there was rarely anyone there, to appt only, it's now rammed. Work colleague had to go to Dundee (2hr drive) for his, until we ramp p the number of centres, or get quicker tests, this is the reality. And I don't believe you wouldn't tbh, would be a real act of selfishness to do that.
Thoughts on airport testing? I was under the opinion that a test isn't really definitive, depends on how far or otherwise you are into the infection, which makes the airports airlines claims that airport testing is the manna they need to get back up to speed not quite right?.
Hibs player up here failed one day, passed the next. Papers are calling it a false positive, but it's not, it's a positive, surely?.
As ever, prepared to be educated!.
And I don’t believe you wouldn’t tbh, would be a real act of selfishness to do that.
Depends how shit you're feeling, what with the Covid symptoms and all.
New Theory on how COVID-19 works.
Thanks for posting that.
And I don’t believe you wouldn’t tbh, would be a real act of selfishness to do that.
Plus also my fear of falling prevents me from driving across the bridge, so hey. Aside from that, you don't think an expectation of 7hr return trip, the emissions and fuel costs is a selfish move by the government, when I could self isolate and await my turn more locally? Pft.
Thoughts on airport testing? I was under the opinion that a test isn’t really definitive, depends on how far or otherwise you are into the infection, which makes the airports airlines claims that airport testing is the manna they need to get back up to speed not quite right?.
Some countries doing it have two tests... one at the airport... one back home... both need to be negative to avoid having to stay home.
Iceland has a relatively small population and a company that developed a pcr test very early on to test its populace (300k people). For comparison, that’s typically less than two weeks of passenger arrivals at Heathrow.
If Serco can't handle the scale of the UK's requirements, perhaps they can go and find another willing country to ply their ongoing series of expensive failures in, and let others do it here. And take away their NHS badge, it's an insult to all those in the NHS who said to stay clear of Serco for anything crucial to the national interest.
It's not really a 'move' by the government though, to be fair, it's the current situation we're in. But aye, it needs sorted out.
Just reading this article https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/9/3/why-the-who-is-warning-that-coronavirus-pandemic-wont-end-with-a-vaccine
Can someone explain why if after all the money thrown at developing a vaccine it will not end the pandemic?
Is it now assumed that everyone has a car ?
The Snowdon thread reminded me to post this. Some colleagues of mine were working a train from Leeds last weekend. It had all kicked off between two groups by the time they got to Dewsbury where they spent an hour waiting for the old bill to sort things. BTP and civil police turned up, civil don't normally touch railway unless it's serious.
The cause of the ruckus? One group wearing masks didn't like the fact the other group weren't wearing them.
One group wearing masks didn’t like the fact the other group weren’t wearing them.
Or did one group not like being asked to put masks* on by the other group?
*mandatory on all trains
So no comments on the sudden UK rise? Today has risen by over 400 cases per day on yesterday, were are up to nearly 2000 per day cases already, nearly half the daily during first peak, the same as March 28, and rising rapidly.
This doesn't feel like a shallow 2nd wave to me, it looks much like the first - just as the temperature drop and kids go to school, which of course is a thing the French have just reversed.
Nervous times!
So no comments on the sudden UK rise? Today has risen by over 400 cases per day on yesterday, were are up to nearly 2000 per day cases already, nearly half the daily during first peak, the same as March 28, and rising rapidly.
This doesn’t feel like a shallow 2nd wave to me, it looks much like the first – just as the temperature drop and kids go to school, which of course is a thing the French have just reversed.
Nervous times!
Positive tests are still running around 1% or so though?
which of course is a thing the French have just reversed
Only a small number of schools have closed in France, just as we will be doing here soon enough. No surprise really.
Positive tests are still running around 1% or so though?
I remain confused about this. Yes that’s correct. I don’t really understand how that hasn’t changed when the number of daily cases has more than doubleD in the recent couple of weeks.
I don’t really understand how that hasn’t changed when the number of daily cases has more than doubleD in the recent couple of weeks.
I'm assuming that there are more tests being done, so more cases are being found, but the proportion of positive ones hasn't changed.
I remain confused about this.
Number of tests has increased, UK apparently testing more than any other euro country, Scotland testing most in UK, so I'm expecting our numbers to go up.
Proportion of positive cases is climbing steadily. It's still not very high though. That just means they are testing lots of people who don't have the disease.
SAGE still well behind the curve, claiming that infections are rising by -1% to +2% per day which is patently nonsense. Today's value is a full 50% over this day last week. Can't understand why they are so determined to make themselves look stupid week after week.
Can someone explain why if after all the money thrown at developing a vaccine it will not end the pandemic?
2 reasons I can see
For a vaccine to work, you need herd immunity, that means we need millions of doses and enough people have to take it up.
In UK uptake of flu vaccine has been falling year on year
Also flu vaccine has to be reformulated every year to work against dominant strains, which can be more or less effective each year
Testing numbers have plateaued since the beginning of August. Around 160,000 per day, a bit of variation but nothing to account for the sharp increase in positive tests we've seen in the last two weeks.
This is the beginning of the second wave.
This is the beginning of the second wave.
How come everything is so quiet around it? Genuine question - things seem to be returning to "normal", it's almost like the virus is a distant memory and yet cases are in the rise. What gives?
How come the first wave prompted complete lockdown but now it seems to be a case of "yeah whatever, get on with things"
??
Partly because folk have got used to being more careful (masks, hygiene, distancing). That meanss any infection will spread more slowly.
^^ Gov/people more inclined to accept an uptick in deaths in order to get back to normal down the pub etc...
It's not as clear as that. The infection survey data (see ONS weekly reports) show the infection prevalence is really very flat. Hospital stats are pretty flat, deaths are flat.
So raw positive test numbers now don't mean the same as they did in March.
It does seem as if there's a plan to open up and see what happens.
I work in a Secondary School in Scotland. Scores of our pupils have been absent to be tested, with even more absent while a sibling or parent is tested. AFAIK none have come back +ve. We are not in the current enhanced restriction zone though. Information from there seems to be that once you have one case, then you have a number.
It does seem as if there’s a plan to open up and
see what happens.**** it.
FTFY
My Wife is, in standard STW fashion, a TA in a large primary school. Only been back for 1.5 days, already 2 pupils are absent for testing.
gray, the ONS data has huge uncertainties. It doesn’t show anything much.
I disagree. It's about the only data (apart from hospital numbers and deaths) that is not affected by changes in testing availability, policy or behaviours. It does have uncertainties, but it's as good as it gets at the moment.
Between the ramifications of Brexit and COVID-19, I fear this is going to be a very mentally draining winter for many, including the notg household.
I was of the impression that the ONS sample size was too small to give data with any kind of resolution.
n0b0dy0ftheg0at
Free Member
Between the ramifications of Brexit and COVID-19, I fear this is going to be a very mentally draining winter for many, including the notg household.
Unfortunately,yeah.
How come the first wave prompted complete lockdown but now it seems to be a case of “yeah whatever, get on with things”
??
A few points
Rate at start of first lockdown was probably much higher, but testing was virtually non-existent
People being infected now are generally younger than middle aged people on ski holidays
"Yeah whatever, get on with things" is exactly the attitude the government had at the start & then 65k people got killed
The lag between hospitalisations & deaths was about a month, were possibly seeing a small increase in those
(TBF there is probably more immunity in the population right now, OAP homes-where many deaths happened are locked down, treatment is much better, likely many of the most vulnerable are already dead- all that said NEVER underestimate how stupid the government is)
The government still want everyone back in work but fortunately they are pissing in the wind , millions of office workers never need to go back, public transport very quiet. Common Sense is more common among the public than government
My comment is explained better by someone smarter than me
https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1302010931480793088?s=19
You are looking at the wrong metric. Cases are confounded by testing. But hospital seeking behaviour is not. Below is a model of U.K. hospital admissions with a relatively short-term prediction. About 15-30% of people going to hospital with COVID19 will not come home. So 200 new admissions/day means about 30-60 deaths per day by December (with a considerable prediction interval either way). We shall see. Yes there is a second wave, it’s just slower to grow than the first.
About 15-30% of people going to hospital with COVID19 will not come home
Have we really not got better at treating this? And is the age distribution of hospital admissions still the same as it was in March?
My Wife is, in standard STW fashion, a TA in a large primary school. Only been back for 1.5 days, already 2 pupils are absent for testing.
I work in a smallish secondary, kids off being tested from before start of term.
Quick question for those with the numbers, when the news says younger people are getting it now, is that a real effect or is it that we are just testing more of those with mild symptoms who are younger?
both, but I also think it depends on your definition of younger people. I think the group with the highest increase is the 20-35 year olds - less responsibility, most likely group to be out socialising / disinhibited as a result, and of course in Wave 1 the opportunity to go out and socialise and be disinhibited wasn't there.
School of course will start to further skew those numbers to younger still, which in turn will increase the number of parent aged cases (35-50 maybe, for school age kids) but my perception - and it may be just my demographic is that parents will not then spread further because they are more likely to isolate properly.
My Wife is, in standard STW fashion, a TA in a large primary school. Only been back for 1.5 days, already 2 pupils are absent for testing.
(Scotland, so we are two weeks ahead of you)
16 tested in my wife's class this last week, including mrs_oab.
Averaging a kid a day being tested in youngest_oab's class.
Boys Brigade last night, one ill with cold and one awaiting test results out of 35 boys.
I also know of one academy chain in London who gathered 87 teachers together from three schools, all in one room and one small outdoor space for training on Monday. Teachers were all but shoulder to shoulder on tables. Unbelievable.
Prof Pagel (IndieSage) said yesterday the increase was half to do with increased testing and half increased infections. Young people around here are 'back to normal' (freely mixing, no masks etc) but we have a flare up in Corby, not very far away, and in the boozer things are pretty unregulated. I'm just waiting and dreading. Anyone know anything about Covid mortality by ethnic group or occupation?
(Scotland, so we are two weeks ahead of you)
16 tested in my wife’s class this last week, including mrs_oab.
Averaging a kid a day being tested in youngest_oab’s class.
Boys Brigade last night, one ill with cold and one awaiting test results out of 35 boys.
Aye, similar here, loads of kids tested at the wee yins secondary school, despite about of a local outbreak at a pub and supermarket, no +ve tests.
Lots of cold going around, which rightly causes a wee panic.
Have we really not got better at treating this?
15% was being optimistic and factors in all improvements in treatment likely before 2021. Sorry to disappoint. As for age, it is unlikely that those seeking hospital will have a different age breakdown. What will be different is that there is more capacity to treat (ITU) the most elderly. Previously if you were 75+ then it would be unlikely that you would make it to ITU, hence one reason for the very high mortality.
Interesting local chat...
Abattoir in Grantown has an outbreak. 29 positive tests amongst workers and contacts. So far, none of those have any symptoms. It does make me wonder (again) if many more folk have had it unknowingly.
There have been antibody tests which show it's not been that widespread in the UK. And yes antibodies fade but not fast enough to allow for a large proportion to have had it.
Teachers were all but shoulder to shoulder on tables. Unbelievable.
Well… how about gathering all staff together in a room to tell them a pupil had tested positive? Some heads are completely ill equipped for what this term will bring.
About 10% of the population have antibodies. In fact there is evidence levels are falling in some parts, probably due to waning immunity and reduced transmission. There has been debate about preexisting cellular immunity. I don’t personally buy these arguments.
We are far far away from herd immunity.
Everything seems to be done in a half-arsed way. If you are told to get a test, you have to find a centre near you, be driven to it (if you are ill) by someone, which is probably the most efficient way to pass it onto the driver, mask or no mask. Looked up the nearest testing centres in my county, and apparently I can nip off to Settle, but only one day a fortnight.
I get the impression that some people don't really want testing massively expanded and available because it will reveal quite a lot of underlying Covid floating about at a time when they want people back in schools and workplaces to keep Pret a Manager solvent. Also, because more cases will shine a light on the inadequacy of the Trace part of the equation.
Plenty of test kits around since 2018 according to the World bank org
COVID-19 Diagnostic Test instruments and apparatus imports by country in 2018".
"In 2018, Top exporters of COVID-19 Diagnostic Test instruments and apparatus are European Union ($2,885,620.49K ), United States ($2,474,886.39K , 3,008,040 Item), Germany ($2,282,319.47K ), Japan ($1,292,837.58K ), Singapore ($1,125,969.91K , 62,765,200 Item).
https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/product/902780
I've had the cold this week. Started with a sore throat then some phlegmy coughs.
I'm actually offended I caught something! Must increase handwashing!
Plenty of test kits around since 2018
Plandemic proof!
If you are told to get a test, you have to find a centre near you, be driven to it (if you are ill) by someone, which is probably the most efficient way to pass it onto the driver, mask or no mask. Looked up the nearest testing centres in my county, and apparently I can nip off to Settle, but only one day a fortnight.
My wife was told yesterday morning to get tested. At 9:30 she went online and arranged a test for 14:30 at a mobile test station 15 miles from home. Result back before 9:30 this morning. TBF, if she hadn't made that, she'd have had to travel to Inverness. 25 miles.
Was asked to get tested earlier this week. Directed to a drive in centre in Leicester - 110 miles away. I’m in Twickenham (where there’s a big drive in centre at the Stadium - which I used in May). Drove past there this morning and it’s open, with plenty of staff standing about, but no customers.
The logistics must be properly screwed up.
Lots of cold going around, which rightly causes a wee panic.
A runny nose itself isn’t a symptom In kids, but lots of other things are (high temperature, vomiting etc), most of which could result from other infections. We have personal experience of this - our youngest had a high temperature (39.3 °C) on Wed night. Both our children are now off school until they have negative tests.
Unlike some we were able to get a drive in test the following day about 2 miles from home. However, persuading our 5 year old to let someone stick a swab up his nose proved to be a challenge too far (he’s big for a 5 yo and very stubborn) so we’re now stuck with waiting for a home kit to try and do it in his sleep, or keeping everyone in self-isolation for 14 days. He has a history of running temperatures too, so we’re in for a long winter... We have a friend who is a GP - she can’t get swabs from her child either, so has accepted that she’ll have to take the 14 day hit each time.
. At 9:30 she went online and arranged a test for 14:30 at a mobile test station 15 miles from home. Result back before 9:30 this morning.
Sounds very efficient. Any chance we could shove the border south a bit, say 100 miles or so? Upsides: You get the Lakes and the Dales. Downsides: Carlisle and Sunderland.
Ha! Interesting stuff on the ONS website on ethnicity and occupation. It points out that occupations with raised death rates included taxi and bus drivers, chefs and retail assistants, precisely the people with increasing exposure arising from the drive to get people commuting again. Clearly other factors might be at play like ethnicity, housing occupancy, region but it's a worrying correlation. Security guards seem to have been hit the hardest, you would think delivery personnel would be more at risk but working outside must be a significant variable.
be driven to it (if you are ill) by someone,
Fake news, everyone knows that if you have Covid you're perfectly capable of driving to the other end of the country, as long as your eyes are OK.
I had the same level of service for a testing request in Middlesbrough - very easy and quick to arrange, efficiently executed -" literally no other cars there" - results via email with 8 hours.
I can't see how you could improve that process to be fair.
There have been antibody tests which show it’s not been that widespread in the UK. And yes antibodies fade but not fast enough to allow for a large proportion to have had it
TBF there's plenty of questions about antibody tests; whether thet pick up all classes of antibody, how different people mount a response, how much Tcell mediated response may be involved, cross immunity from other coronaviruses, ....
That said antibody studies say ~7% exposed nationwide. There's no direct evidence to contradict it right niw
I had the same level of service for a testing request in Middlesbrough – very easy and quick to arrange, efficiently executed -” literally no other cars there” – results via email with 8 hours.
I can’t see how you could improve that process to be fair.
You've been lucky average time is 24 hrs for regional
pillar 2(home tests) only 28% tests made the 48hr turnaround time
Average turnaround time has gone up to 4 days
I get the impression that some people don’t really want testing massively expanded and available because it will reveal quite a lot of underlying Covid floating about at a time when they want people back in schools and workplaces to keep Pret a Manager solvent
Did you miss the news about the expansion of the ONS population test programme which is aimed at establishing the level of "underlying covid floating about"
...you would think delivery personnel would be more at risk but working outside must be a significant variable.
The multi-drop ones are told to leave it at the doorstep, ring the bell and step away so no direct contact whatsoever. Those of us doing home shopping deliveries are told to leave the crate on the doorstep, step back and you unload it yourself, again no direct contact. Add in that we're in the open air and constantly using hand sanitiser and it's actually pretty safe. Certainly better than going to the pub!
terry27
Full Member
I had the same level of service for a testing request in Middlesbrough – very easy and quick to arrange, efficiently executed -” literally no other cars there” – results via email with 8 hours.
I can’t see how you could improve that process to be fair.
I had exactly the same although result took about 13hrs but was extremely impressed with how efficient process was.