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Why anyone is surprised by this is beyond me. The current Govt is beyond scrutiny and just doing whatever the **** they want
About 2 weeks ago I got a (negative) home test result SMS less than 24h after sticking it in the postbox. So that doesn’t align with ‘days to get results back’ but I may just have been lucky.
You were lucky
Testing turnaround times for pillar 2 (swab testing for the wider population) increased compared to the previous week. 67.4% of in person tests were returned within 24 hours compared to 76.9% the previous week. 43.6% of home/satellite tests were returned within 48 hours compared to 72.9% the previous week.
My sister in laws took 3 days (+ve), mother in law took 4 days (-ve), that was last week & week b4
I mentioned this to a Dr in work and she was totally unsurprised, she said colleagues had waited a similar length of time
Carry on spending, maybe one day it might accidentally be spent on something useful being delivered…
https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1296422949302538241?s=21
So then extra measures for Oldham, Blackburn and Pendle.
It appears that Wigan, Darwen and Rossendale will be relaxed. No mention of the Yorkshire areas as yet....
Northampton and Birmingham to be added to the naughty list very soon.
Kirklees is still on the naughty list but the government is going to take a more localised approach rather than Borough wide.
Local MPs and councils will identify specific areas that need lockdown and agree or if no agreement work with the JBC to make independent review then get sign off to implement.
Makes sense as most cases in Kirklees is in the Dewsbury, Batley, Cleckheaton area miles from areas like Holmfirth, Meltham etc that has far less cases.
Any idea when it will be implemented?
So then extra measures for Oldham, Blackburn and Pendle.
So residents aren't allowed to socialise with anyone outside their families, however they are allowed to go to the pub..
Wtf?
You could go to the pub with your immediate family
If people can't stay 2 metres apart at home, maybe pubs controlling numbers, space and seating might work?
Shows a lack of real world understanding if the experts think that is how all pubs will work.
Ime in busy pubs in the evening, as people get drunker social distancing goes out the window
Just wait unt unis go back, now with more students than ever !
Sorry I've not been concentrating, how did the UK death toll drop by 5000? Thats a lot of devine intervention.
anagallis_arvensis
MemberSorry I’ve not been concentrating, how did the UK death toll drop by 5000? Thats a lot of devine intervention.
If you died 28 days after testing positive for coronavirus, you now no longer count, even if you totally did die of coronavirus (because why would they retest you 3 weeks into dying of it?).
Supposedly this is more accurate than the previous system but that seems sketchy to me. Lots of apples and oranges comparisons though
Did anyone listen to David King on the independent SAGE report released this morning about the R rate being between 0,9 and 1.1 on LBC at 4pm with Eddie Mair.
To quote David King "yikes' & "hit the panic button "
Sorry I’ve not been concentrating, how did the UK death toll drop by 5000
They've combined Public Health England and Ofqual. They were worried about infection inflation so had the numbers moderated.
Well we will be back to normal lockdown from next Wednesday, specific wards in Blackburn and Pendle being locked down further, apparently rates in Rossendale have dropped enough to take us out, not quite sure how going from 2 cases a week to 2 cases a week counts as a drop. About time targeted lock down was applied, shame there's no credibility left anymore.
Are these lockdowns based on rates of infection or absolute numbers of positive cases?
So can anyone explain why....
1. The current death rate in the UK continues to drop despite the fact that most of the original restrictions were lifted weeks ago?
2. The death rate in Sweden is currently close to zero despite them not actually locking down at all?
Is there more immunity in the population than originally thought? Is the virus becoming less deadly?
Is there more immunity in the population than originally thought? Is the virus becoming less deadly?
No, and no. It’s about who’s giving it to whom. And restrictions are still in place in the UK and Sweden.
Rate per 100,000 people seem to be the key indicator.
1) infections now are mostly in younger groups , who have much, much lower death rate >90% of all deaths were in OAPs, they're still isolating
City centres in UK are still empty , schools closed, public transport unused etc
2) The Swedish lockdown was as strict as many other countries, just self imposed as much as government mandated & still activity well below normal
-conpare mobility of Stockholm Vs London
https://citymapper.com/cmi/stockholm
Mind boggling that Dido Harding has been given a promotion, considering how badly the service is underperforming
Not surprised at all. They need to discredit and dismantle PHE before the enquiry starts. That requires a lackey not a competent boss, so Dido fits the bill perfectly.
Pre-emptive strikes to remove the possibility of effective scrutiny is classic Dom.
They’ve combined Public Health England and Ofqual. They were worried about infection inflation so had the numbers moderated.
[rolleyes]
The figures were adjusted to bring in line to how every other part of the UK counts the deaths as well as other European countries, so its more comparing apples with apples now.
Based on the old counting method the UK could have ended up with millions of deaths, so when these dirty infected teenagers die from a coke overdose 6 months later they'd have been included in the figures.
Any idea when it will be implemented?
@ElShalimo apparently the councils and MPs are reviewing stuff now and could be authorised by next Thurs.
Based on the old counting method the UK could have ended up with millions of deaths, so when these dirty infected teenagers die from a coke overdose 6 months later they’d have been included in the figures.
The old counting method, which will include some unrelated deaths, was as imperfect as the new one, which is likely to exclude quite a few related ones. Are we expected to believe that 11% or so of deaths which happened within a relatively short period (months) of testing positive were due to completely unrelated reasons?
We are already aware that the damage caused by Covid is extensive and long lasting in many patients, even if the initial viral infection and its consequences do not kill. Just take a look at the 'Have You Had Covid' thread on here for some anecdotal evidence from generally pretty healthy people whose bodies have been knocked to shite for months afterwards. It it fairly obvious that the virus, and its sequelae, represent a threat to health for not just a few weeks, particularly to those who have underlying conditions which already place them at high risk of death.
The problem with excluding the fella who dropped dead of a heart attack/kidney failure etc 35 days after testing positive with Covid is that it is disguising this ongoing health burden, at a time when we don't fully understand it and need to shine a light on the many thousands of people who are not just vulnerable for the initial period, but will probably need close monitoring and additional intervention/support for a significant period.
I am yet to be convinced that the reasons for changing this are anything other than political ****ery.
The Govt haven't updated the official source of info since the 14th
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/north-west-of-england-local-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do
Larry, I didn't realise I needed to add sarcasm tags. I know why it was changed and makes sense when comparing us to other countries, lucky for the government the figure went down not up when we standardised our reporting method.
The Govt haven’t updated the official source of info since the 14th
I don’t know anyone who’s stuck to that, do you?
And I’d missed this bit…
If you’re visiting outdoor areas of cafes, restaurants or pubs, you should only meet in groups of up to 2 households, or up to 6 people from multiple households.
So, you can meet a mate and their family down the pub, as long as you stay outside. Didn’t know that.
This is the bit that niggles me most…
Can I travel outside of my area?
You should not travel outside of your area to meet people other than those in your support bubble, in their homes or gardens, or indoor public places.
You can still go on holiday outside of your area, but you can only do this with people you live with (or have formed a support bubble with).
So, you can’t visit family, but you can go on holiday. Well, what about people who stay with family for their holiday? And I’m not referencing Cummings there… I mean people who can only afford holidays without paying for accommodation.
The whole “spend money or stay isolated” approach isn’t sustainable.
@kelvin - I'm well aware of the current daft rules as I live in Calderdale. You can meet people in a beer garden in the lovely weather we always have....
My point was that these fectards can't even be arsed to update the webpage with the official guidance on the northern restrictions.
Probably another page for that somewhere else. There should be a daily briefing. No one has a clue what is going on. Our PM is too lazy though.
I can’t find anything. But then those restrictions that are published were written and put live a while after they were supposed to apply, IIRC.
The page I linked to is (or was) the official source
The Govt haven’t updated the official source of info since the 14th
well, the pm’s secretary has been on holiday in Scotland...
If local lockdowns are based on local authority areas are the details on the local authority website?
(Yes I'd expect something on the gov.uk page as well)
The old counting method, which will include some unrelated deaths, was as imperfect as the new one
There is no perfect way because its still so new.
At least we're now counting like everyone else for a more meaningful comparison.
ElShalimo, which end of Calderdale do live, west Halifax where there are large spikes in infection rates, or the rural parts where there isn't. I'd ignore the government nonsense and base my behaviour on the infection rates where I live, not on somewhere 20 miles away I have zero contact with. Maybe Rossendale could annex western Calderdale and liberate you?
Stainland (in the clouds), feel free to annexe us but I think Rochdale want us first to improve their stats
😉
My point about the Government is that they introduced these regulations/laws/****hattery so it is incumbent upon them to inform us, the great unwashed. The additional restrictions in Oldham etc are not on there yet.
I know, I know... it's all part of their shitty approach, deception, misdirection etc. It's the worst amateur magic show ever. (I worked on the bar at a working men's club in the 80s, I've sadly seen enough of these to earn the right to say that. 🤦).
Govt website now updated.... Only a full day after they announced the changes
Twunts
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/north-west-of-england-local-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do
<tinfoilhat> Is the interruption to the booking system for Covid19 tests in Scotland a deliberate spanner in the works from Westminster?</tinfoilhat>
It is a UK Government run website and booking system. Only Scottish Testing sites seemed unavailable. The visuals of Scots having to travel to Penrith to get a test must be pleasing to those in the UK Govt. who have been viewing Nicola Sturgeon's actions and approval ratings with concern, especially when contrasted with their own.
...and of course the only 2 that came close to us, were first wave countries while we had more opportunity to watch and prepare. I just keep thinking about what Italy would have given for that chance.
It's a very small graph, but the last 7 days in Scotland are suggesting that we're back near lockdown levels?
The data tables seem to confirm this.
'World Class' my arse!!
Government falls short of contact-tracing target for ninth week in row
The test and trace figures released earlier – with 75.5% of close contacts reached through the NHS system – represented the ninth week in a row where the government has fallen short of its 80% target.Dido Harding, the interim executive chair of the National Institute for Health Protection, said: “We will continue to build the service further to reach more and more people and to scale up our testing capacity by expanding our network of testing sites and investing in new technologies.”
From the Guardian Newsfeed.
Also from the Guardian:
Only 46% of the British population believe their country has done a good job handling coronavirus.
When will they admit it's a giant failure?
It’s a very small graph, but the last 7 days in Scotland are suggesting that we’re back near lockdown levels?
If you do a lot more testing, you'll find a lot more cases. How many folk were being tested at the start of lockdown?
(the 7 day average does seem to be moving back in the right direction for the moment)
A fair point on testing = you find more.
I still feel pretty positive about things overall, my main concern (mainly due to job) is that schools become a growing way of transmission.
‘World Class’ my arse!!
I think there is some National variance here. My son has been called three times to check he is staying at home for the full fortnight. Yes he could lie, yes he could bluster. But the system is active up here in Scotland it seems...
It’s a very small graph, but the last 7 days in Scotland are suggesting that we’re back near lockdown levels?
Aye, but not rising on a log scale, as they were before, that's the big difference.
Until the virus either mutates or we get some kind of vaccine, we'll have a baseline number of infections, that will be at the mercy of how we maintain controls.
For the UK overall less than 20% of home tests (which is now majority of testing) meet the 48hr turnaround target
no wonder they dropped the press conferences
Back from a week on holiday (in Norfolk).
Not a huge amount of social distancing and the county was rammed. Slight increase in excess mortality from historic baseline, which the ONS is stating might be due to the heatwave. The trend is one of flatten then turn over and the regions involved are the ones with excess cases, so we shall see. I'm guessing further increase next Tuesday, then Bank Holiday reporting dip.
For some interesting science on just how transmissible the virus is in a closed (cold) space, and data on whether there is some protection from infection by neutralising antibodies, this paper on transmission on a fishing vessel was put up on the preprint server. It was reported in the media already, but the source is a good read if you like that sort of thing. Over 80% became infected with a high proportion asymptomatic.
My mrs is a pregnant teacher (reception, so being covered in mucus is a given, and face masks are impossible) and is currently debating whether to return to school in September. I've done a bit of a lay persons dive into the data available, which I wrote up for her. I'm not a scientist but thought i'd share what I found in case it's helpful for anyone else.
The TLDR summary (i'm suggesting she does not go back to the front line teaching role on this basis):
- pregnant women who catch it end up in hospital more often and are more likely to have to go into ICU etc. Second and third trimester is worse time.
- it is rare for the baby to get it at birth if they're seperated immediately from the mother
- there is evidence for placental abnormalities if the mother has had it and these are associated with negative outcomes for the baby
- there is obviously no direct evidence for covid 19 as yet, but viral infections are linked with negative cognitive outcomes for the child
Full brain dump here:
Risks
- Pregnant women may be at a higher risk for Covid 19 being classed as severe if they catch it. Particularly pregnancy has been assoicated with increased hospitisation, risk of intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, but not death. Large study from US - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7316319/. Study authors suggest that prevention of COVID-19 should be emphasized for pregnant women and potential barriers to adherence to these measures need to be addressed. Second Swedish study showing that the risk of being admitted to ICU may be greater for pregnant women here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7273089/
- Higher chance of Cesarean section if infected (47% symptomatic, 46% asymptomatic, 31% non covid admissions p=0.044 i.e. 96% chance it's not random chance) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32633022/ July 2020. Second study also found higher instances of ceasrean birth in mothers with Covid 19 ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32555034/)
- Higher chance of post birth complications for the mother (postpartum complications) - typically fever, hypoxia, readmission. These occured in 12.9% of women with covid, vs 4.5% of women without covid p<0.001 i.e. better than 99.9% chance it's not due to random chance) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32633022/
- Post birth pathology of the placenta demonstrated increased frequency of vascular malperfusion (basically recognisable injury to the placenta which results in abonormalities in oxygenation and blood flow dynamics) which is indicative of thrombi (blood clots) in fetal vessels (presumably what is causing the impact to oxygenation and blood flow). Markedly higher - 48.3% covid 19, 11.3% in non-covid 19. Very good p value p<0.001 (better than 1 in a thousand that the result is not due to random chance, or better than 99.9%)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32633022/
- Placental blood clots (thrombi) are associated in literature with a number of negative outcomes - Severe perinatal(within a year of birth) liver disease (for the child) ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11815872/ - not a study, just three case studies), intra uterine growth restriction (basically fetal growth) ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15033316/ - quite large study), and cerebral palsy ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10414494/ - not a study, review of 84 autopsies).
- Second and third trimesters are seens as the most risky period for pregnant women ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32513659/ - large cohort study of all UK OB units between March and Mid April).
- Risk of tranmission to child seems relatively low during delivery - lots of studies say this - e.g. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32534458/ They do point out that appropiate seperation measures would be required at birth if mother is Covid positive (i.e. baby removed from mother)
- Evidence for flu that women who are hospitalised during pregnancy with flu are more likely to deliver pre-term or low weigh infants. Obviously flu is not Covid, but many of the physical symptoms align (e.g. fever) ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21900872/)
- Maternal infections are linked to altered brain development. Linked conditions include development of autism spectrum disorders, differences in cognitive test scores, and bipolar disorder; these associations have been shown in both epidemiologic and retrospective studies. Elevations in inflammatory cytokines (substences that cells release in response to infection) have been linked to cerebral palsy, schizophrenias, and autism - covid 19 can cause a 'cytokine storm' which is the release of a large amount of cytokines (the substences linked to the bad outcomes!). Animal studies have also shown that prenatal inflammation can impact neurodevelopment. The impacts vary by infection agent, but for example flu is assoicated with decreased IQ at age 7, bipolar disorder, and infantile autism. (very detailed review with lots of references here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4795171/)
Unknowns
- Cognitive impact on fetus - first studies expected in autumn 2020, but typically cogntitive tests are done at 5 years or later! However evidence from other viral infections suggests there could be an impact.
@Ewan, could she get an antibody test to see if she has already had it?
might make decision easier
good advice here & imo (despite what the tory press are saying) the NEU have been pretty good so far
https://neu.org.uk/coronavirus-what-you-need-know-pregnancy-and-maternity
@Kimbers - thanks for that, we'd seen that but looks like it has been updated fairly recently. I thought the antibody tests were not very accurate? She's certainly not been ill since covid became prevalent.
Her school has been great so far, she's been working from home since this all kicked off / we found out she was pregnant. She's having an individual risk assessment next week, but my concern is that it is hard for someone who has not taught reception to understand how different reception is from other years - children of that age will cough / vomit / whatever in her face, and to do a good job you need to constantly be at their level, giving hugs, etc. A facemask and visor in reception would scare the crap out them!
Back from a week on holiday (in Norfolk).
Not a huge amount of social distancing and the county was rammed.
It must be so dependant on where you go - I got back from Hopton on Sea last weekend and there was about 5-10 people on the beach at any given time.
taken from the kids/schools/masks thread:
Rise in cases in France and Scotland this week, and what had changed significantly for a potential cause? They both had return to schools two weeks or so ago….
The gov (under advice from SAGE) said in June, a return to schools would increase the R rate by a factor of 0.5. Nothing has change since then scientifically. The current R rate for England is 0.9 – 1.1
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
In a months time that infection curve will have a much higher incline…..
Posted 1 hour ago
so a 0.5 for going back to school, anyone know what the 'open the pubs' factor is/was?
(full disclosure, im too old for school and i like pubs)
Reply | Report
About time, should have been the case from the start.
I thought that the rise in cases in Scotland was mostly related to a couple of specific, non-school related, outbreaks. Correlation is not causation.
An increase of 0.5 is very pessimistic and I would be surprised if you could find a document where SAGE said that. I believe that 0.2-0.3 is much more what the consensus view is for the likely change, and it could even be lower under very optimistic conditions.
OTOH the current SAGE range for R is pretty silly really, they are clutching at straws to pretend it is any lower than 1.1 right now. 1.1 + 0.2 will be quite problematic enough.
R will rise when all kids are back in school buildings… not just because of transmission in and on the way to/from school, but because it will also result in more parents being told to stop working at home and get commuting and working together physically again. And then there is what kids do, and where, between school gates closing and parents getting home.
An increase of 0.5 doesn’t sound pessimistic, given all that. Which is why getting cases as low as possible before the return to school should have been policy. We’ve wasted the opportunity this summer gave us.
Anyone able to shed light on increasing numbers not leading to increasing deaths. Can the current uptick by extraperlated backwards to shed light on how many cases we may have actually had in the country before it all turned to shit in March?
R is not linear. What we know is that unrestricted, R is about 2.5 to 3. That’s not particularly high actually but typical for a respiratory infection. In lockdown R falls to about 0.5, so roughly An 80% drop. Let’s assume that closing schools accounted for roughly half that decline - not implausible. That would be a 40% drop or a fall from 2.5 to 1.5. We started with a relaxation of lockdown and a rise to 1. Expect a further increase. The remainder is public transport, return to offices and workspace transmission.
I predicted an increase in cases with doubling time of about 7-14 days. Hope I’m wrong.
AA: the increased cases is due to increased testing in Tier 2 (community). This finds a younger age base than Tier 1 (hospital). You have to be older to be ill enough to need to seek hospital treatment where you are tested as Tier 1. I think Community cases are now more than 80% of all new cases. They used to be 0%!
Combination of new infections being in the younger population and the hospitals having learned a lot of lessons and turned that learning into better outcomes, fewer people in intensive care and better outcomes for those that are.
Anyone able to shed light on increasing numbers not leading to increasing deaths.
Was mentioned in Nicola Sturgeons briefing today. More younger folk who are less likely to show symptoms, get very ill, die. Possible there will be a lag between young folk catching it, passing it on to grandparents and then an increase in deaths again.
And, of course, increased and more targeted testing.
I'm on a train out of London now
It's getting busier , but still ghost town
More families than commuters on the train
I'd say 20% of adults not wearing masks 😬
With testing - track + trace targets being missed by big margins, i could easily see things getting out of control once winter starts properly
Hospital admissions and Tier 1 are where you will see the signal. People with more severe disease will continue to represent a small but constant fraction of the total. We don’t know the total (all cases) but we will continue to see the cases who need medical attention. These are being monitored carefully. Guess what? Regions with special measures do show small increases in admissions.
AA: the increased cases is due to increased testing in Tier 2
I know so having a measure of where we actually were in reality rather than just a number based on very limited testing would give us a good idea of when we need to push the panic button would it not?
I think Community cases are now more than 80% of all new cases. They used to be 0%!
So if we have that figure of 80% and some data on numbers now and then we could work out where we might have really been then and when to start panicing in the future couldnt we. Only with some proper maths not back of fag packet stuff!!
Hospital admissions and Tier 1 are where you will see the signal.
Bit late isnt it? Like that old economics quote about driving a car down the motorway by looking out the back window
No, monitoring initial consultations is the most concrete signal of doom. Community mass testing is going to help too, but there are too many unknowns as to how we interpret that. The ons mass survey is informing on prevalence and it was declining. Back extrapolation is as bad as forward when you don’t know the parameters!
The Royal College of GPs have a weekly monitoring for consultations for flu like symptoms. This is where I predict we will See any first signs of a big second wave. People go to the doctors when they have symptoms. Or at least they now phone them.
Back extrapolation is as bad as forward when you don’t know the parameters!
Fair enough, I suppose it comes back to my usual frustration with trying to understand things from watching the news. The numbers they quote whether its cases in different sized countries or now quoting case numbers when testing is so vastly different its impossible to compare or understand.
If anyone is interested, this is my prediction for winter 2020. Not all doom and gloom, but we shall see. Half-term should be an important milestone with regards to school transmission, vaccine development and emergence of influenza.
Summary
An Autumn/Winter SRS-COV2 epidemic will follow the first epidemic wave, with doubling time >1 week (rather than 2-3 days). There will be added influenza mortality but reduced overall transmission due to school precautions (including lockdown/closure), reduced commuting and office working, use of public barrier precautions, testing and isolation of the elderly and healthcare workers, testing and tracing of cases. Regional lockdowns will be necessary but are unlikely to prevent overall spread. Excess mortality of up to 30000 deaths (half the first wave) should be anticipated, again predominantly in the elderly. Any reductions in 2020-21 influenza mortality due to reduced contacts and increased vaccination will be offset by COVID19 mortality. There will be no effective vaccine or new treatments available, however earlier treatment of mild/moderate cases may mitigate mortality.
Thanks tired, appreciate your posts on here and I find them very informative and thoughtful too.
If it's ok, like to ask your thoughts on the ending of "shielding" and how you think that will go. There were people that took some serious survival measures for the four months, and the support to do that has gone. Some can afford to protect themselves again, but a lot are being pushed back into contact again. Lots of workplaces are doing what they can through extra risk assessments as they have a duty of care, but there's some obvious transmission vectors that it just looks like a matter of time before the virus gets through.
Schools being a big example - even a perfect track, trace isolate system will only kick in after children have mixed then been sent home to parents. If they are vulnerable ( I'm thinking the health condition shielders, not really older grandparents) then they look very at risk of worse outcomes.
Stupidly I popped in to Wetherspoons the other night with the kids around 5pm. I know, I know but it was one of those days.
Tried the Marstons Pub nearer to us first, it was full but everything inside looked well organised. Tables were well spaced and staff were meeting people right at the door and taking people to tables.
Wetherspoons was an absolute rammy. No staff on the door - so folk piling in with nowhere for them to go. No obvious extra separation between tables just crappy screens here and there. Due to the poor spacing and extra screens, walkways were limited so lots of contact between people going to bar, toilets, arriving etc. I took a few steps in and then promptly left - just a disaster waiting to happen. I have defended Wetherspoons in the past, but holy crap it's fairly obvious they're trying to get cash in and to hell with the consequences.
Considering how many pubs they have if that is representative it doesn't bode well for the winter.
Not all doom and gloom
Excess mortality of up to 30000 death
☹️
Does this assume the government act in the same way? Or maybe even get it beter? Testing is much better now so that will help but I'm not confident they will move to a large scale lock down if needed again, although do we think that is necessary?
Tired, pretty much every one of the R numbers you wrote are pretty badly wrong. There is no way that school opening is going to be a really big effect (note they were already open anyway for some) but it may well be enough to matter.
Testing is much better now so that will help but I’m not confident they will move to a
Turnaround times are actually much worse than they were in June/July
Which is worrying, a cold wet winter & lots more tests being done could see it struggle
That it's performing so badly in the summer is a red flag IMO
Be interesting to see how busy London gets once Schools are back
I'm not sure much will chant, I'd say trains into London are definitely getting busier, may 50% of normal at rush hour (tho I'm avoiding that)
My work goes to 1m distancing, so more people can come on, but we have to wear masks all day(shift- as we are working shifts to minimise contacts) now
I’m not sure much will chant, I’d say trains into London are definitely getting busier, may 50% of normal at rush hour (tho I’m avoiding that)
Maybe less. Everyone I know who works in town or uses it as a transit is working from home, and company’s are either maintaining wfh policies as Is, or changing offices to be Covid friendly choices of workplace. People who’ve been distracted by kids at home for the last few months are actually stating it’ll get easier as they will be at school 9-3 and the wfh polices help with schooling arrangement.
I don’t see even 50% rushing back. As has been said many times, it’s be proven that wfh is sustainable and cheaper, and changes the work like balance. Maybe over a couple of years.
Citymapper notability has London about 45% of normal
Tho certainly in parts I'm in it seems much quieter
https://citymapper.com/cmi/london
Cycling is quite pleasant
I work in a lab so can't do all my work from home, but that's reasonably rare
I'm in 2.5days a week, be interesting to see what the 3day season ticket prices are, as I'm currently using off-peak (which is meaningless) so my commuting bill is halved compared to normal season ticket (3 days out of 5 still better than paying rip-off 7 day or monthly season ticket!)
There is no way that school opening is going to be a really big effect
Why not? If the keenness to get all kids on site full time, rather than in shifts or rotas with mixed home/school learning, is about helping get more parents back into their normal places of work more often, then how on earth can you claim it’ll have such a minimum effect?
Some can afford to protect themselves again, but a lot are being pushed back into contact again.
I know someone who has made themselves unemployed as the only way to keep their shielding family members safe. They can ‘afford’ to do it where many can not, but it’s still going to seriously impact their lives, especially if their return to work next year becomes difficult. They are still one of the lucky ones.
Just read the article on beeb about leaked sage report, worst case 80 000 XS deaths but schools wont close...wonder who will be in them though, kids voted with their feet in march and many teachers were off with symotoms.
Marina Hyde in the Grauniad has it right:
Leave Home. Forget the NHS. Save Pret.
Kids had the option of "voting with their feet" back then.
The threats of fines has been pushed strongly in all the information aimed at parents now.
Would be very interested in any teacher's thoughts on how this will be dealt with for vulnerable kids/family members as I've got some real concerns with them going back.