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Well we've all been living in hope for many years so he's not wrong.
Or living on hope? Here's a rewarding (if chilling) read:
if chilling
I like to think there's a little national pride in may country left in me. That article smashed it to pieces.
That article smashed it to pieces.
Difficult to argue with its analysis though.
Sadly...
I like to think there’s a little national pride in may country left in me. That article smashed it to pieces.
I think that sums it up
The question is what are we - us ordinary folk - going to be asking for, pushing for, campaigning for in order to get things put right. Are we - all of us - going to be working towards the solutions, or are we going to be quietly accepting, looking for others to "do something" and remaining part of the problem?
Freely admit I've been guilty of the latter more than I probably realised before events in the last 5-10 years made me realise
From today's data - stable deaths with trend to increase.
Right then, it's 2 weeks since they started the additional Northern restrictions. They're up for review today.
Oldham appears to be a bit of a basket case currently but other areas seem to be improving.
Who reckons they'll ease them?
Another week to another review I reckon. I think they’ll want to get that rise flattened before September to support the schools opening rhetoric.
Blackburn is still 84/100000 with a national average of 14/100000 cases nationally so I doubt we’ll see a local change. Oldham is north of 100.
Pendle and Calderdale are still spiking as well, Blackburn is still high, wouldn't bet on it.
I'm betting they keep those areas in lockdown until schools return.
That's another 3 weeks
If only there was a plan, and people knew what they were supposed to be doing.
“The JBC set 1,000 cases a day as a warning threshold – but we don't know what action is meant to be taken on the back of it, or why they picked 1,000,” said the research professor at University College London.
“We don’t know whether the government is actually planning on changing strategy in light of ticking up numbers. Or even, what government strategy is in general.
“Mr Johnson has said opening schools a priority but he hasn't given any detail of what that means in terms of policy, nor any indication that they are trying to drive down cases before schools open in England.”
Meanwhile local TV news says police have stepped up operations only to be told by people breaking guidelines that they were following out of date guidelines that they didn’t know had been updated. Where’s our daily briefings…?
@TiRed Can you explain that graph a bit more please. Apologies if you already have in the previous 378 pages 🙂
Currently having a small Holiday in Ardèche - very quiet car journey down. Not many people in the hotel.
Awaiting the quarantine news to see what they throw at France.
Happier here than in UK as it stands.
From the Derek Lowe article:
This is just naked “vaccine nationalism”, which is really the last thing we need right now. I don’t want to see any country (including the US) beating its chest in this fashion and using the pandemic to declare the superiority of its system or its scientists.
Ring any bells about world-beating scientists, tests, apps etc ?
The article in the Atlantic (link above) doesn't pull any punches and is sobering read.
It's certainly worth reading.
It's a regression of daily deaths by day, using over-dispersed poisson (count) statistics. It tests to see whether there is any curvature and makes an adjustment for the day of the week due to reporting delays (quite a simple feature). Then it predicts six weeks in advance. The curvature suggests that we will see a leveling off and slight increase of daily deaths and the bands reflect the uncertainty. Fluctuations are unlikely to lead to a day of zero reported deaths.
There has been a revision of reporting from daily to weekly cases at the lowest (postcode) level and I haven't updated my code yet. But the hotspots are easy to see from incidence data. I look at other measures for an earlier signal.
The article in the Atlantic (link above) doesn’t pull any punches
You reckon? Seemed pretty balanced to me, sharing blame throughtout the UK establishment and even offering us the following to let us all completely off the hook:
Some government officials and experts I spoke with—including a senior adviser to the leader of one of the best-performing countries in Europe—said that Britain may have just been unlucky in the number of holidaymakers it had returning from the wrong places at the wrong times. Britain is also more densely populated than almost any other country in Europe, with its preeminent city and busiest airport. Like a Silk Road port at the time of the plague, London is a 21st-century global hub unlike anywhere else in the region. It is no coincidence that the British capital and New York have been among the two worst-affected cities in the world.
I'm a big fan of the Atlantic and this article is no exception.
Then it predicts six weeks in advance. The curvature suggests that we will see a leveling off and slight increase of daily deaths and the bands reflect
@tired was every point on the blue line predicted 6 weeks before, based on the data at that time? in hich case, impressive modeling.
why, on the future 6 weeks, do the weekend and mid week troughs get lower, and the monday and friday peaks get higher? To my laymans eye, the seven day rolling average seems to remain about flat or even slight decline? is that the case
*
@TiRed, also why does the probability of extinction increase in Mid Sept, especially since the model predicts Uk cases are rising then.
...but really, why does it increase at all?
Sorry, another question - do all the models need adjusting now that the way English deaths were reported has been updated and the total was reduced by 5,000 yesterday?
why, on the future 6 weeks, do the weekend and mid week troughs get lower, and the monday and friday peaks get higher?
Because that's the statistical trend. Now, what's behind that trend... that's more than statistics... I'd guess at different reporting measures for different care/health settings or patients... so what we're looking at is one or more trends artificially combined into one set of data... and those trends are diverging, but that divergence is only hinted at by the peaks and troughs caused by the different distribution of the reporting across the days of the week.
do all the models need adjusting now that the way English deaths were reported has been updated and the total was reduced by 5,000 yesterday
what, again?
He's referring to deaths more than 28 days after Coronavirus diagnosis no longer being included in Coronavirus deaths figures. Not relevant when looking at excess deaths though... not sure why Tired has stopped using those.
Ah yes, forgot TiRed was using excess deaths, ignore me, usually the best option anyway.
Ah yes, forgot TiRed was using excess deaths, ignore me, usually the best option anyway.
Can't be. Firstly (AFAIK) excess deaths don't fluctuate with weekends and secondly excess deaths have been below zero for 6 weeks or so. For the last 6 weeks CV has been preventing deaths. (Albeit by moving them forwards.)
...but agree Excess deaths is probably the best number to use, apart from laggy ONS reporting based on actual death certs. (And excess deaths are the only sane way to compare different nations for obvious reasons).
That data is ONS reported COVID19 deaths (not excess deaths). It will probably be updated based on the reclassification of 28d, which I don't personally agree with, but standardisation is OK either way.
What I did was model observed deaths by day of the week using log-linear, quartic and cubic regressions for all weeks from 15 onwards (with an extra factor for day of the week). Then selected the model with the best overall goodness of fit - this was quartic from Week 22 onwards - which is what is plotted. You can see that the data has a periodicity, but the fluctuations increase with time (hint: it's plotted on a log scale). Forward projection just increases the magnitude of fluctuations due to the quartic nature of the overall trend- it's a simple model. I really wanted to understand whether we could report ZERO deaths because, as per Scotland, the media will get excited.
When ONS update their data, the extinction probability may change.
Excess deaths are back to historic ten-year range. Forget the noise about being BELOW. they are as expected at the moment. A few age groups and regions have a little excess. Nothing of concern though at the moment. Excess deaths is insensitive to changes because of the reporting lag by ONS. That's why the daily PHE data is used on a daily basis.
Ratio of All deaths to ten year baseline by NHS region shows everything looks pretty much back to baseline.
Apps back.
Baroness Dido Harding - who heads up the wider Test and Trace initiative - had earlier voiced concern about implementing the automated contact-tracing feature because of fears many people who had been falsely flagged might be told to go into quarantine.
The app has several other functions, including:
An alert system that informs users of the coronavirus risk level close to their home, with the area defined by the first part of their postcode
A QR barcode scanner, so users can check in when they visit a venue and be told if others there later tested positive
A symptom-checking tool, which allows users to book a free test and get the results via the app
A countdown function that comes into effect if they are told to self-isolate, so users can keep track of how long to stay at home
I love it - an app that helps people with counting - can it also help them spell their name?
'Defined by the first part of the postcode', that's the whole county so that will be useful.
Another success story from the woman who was CEO when TalkTalk had a massive data breach.
Who knew such a complex app was possible in such a short timeframe? Perhaps the NZ government, who had something similar up and running in the middle of May.
‘Defined by the first part of the postcode’, that’s the whole county so that will be useful.
Depends if they mean the first two letters, or they've really upped their game and gone for the numbers as well. World. Beating.
It depends on what the first part of the postcode actually means
If you take M2 7PB:
- the "M" is the Postal Area (Manchester)
- "M2" is the Postal District
- "M2 7" is the Postal Sector
- add the unit "PB" to get a full postcode
Even data at Postal District level is very useful for urban areas as it's quite a small area. Admittedly if you look at IV27 it's huge but the population is very low.
Even data at Postal District level is very useful for urban areas as it’s quite a small area. Admittedly if you look at IV27 it’s huge but the population is very low.
It is totally dependent on the infection rate data they are using to inform it. Ideally you'd want to know about positive tests in your area as they happen, not once the official data gets dribbled out a week or so later.
It will be first postcode district. they've moved reporting to the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA). MSOAs are small areas with around 7,200 average population.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
You'd assume the definition of the first part of the postcode is the 3/4 digits.
Although wouldn't surprise me based on how they've acted upon the latest "local lockdown".
A question for people who've had a swab test administered by someone else ie a health care worker - do you think you couid have done it yourself? I gather that it involves sticking the swab pretty far into your head and I wonder if you woukd have done it properly if you'd done it yourself?
(Reason I ask is I may need a test for travel and not sure if I should go the cheaper DIY route)
@DrJ Nope, a nurse wasn't convinced it was a good throat swab when I was at SGH recently because I was struggling to not gag and keep my tongue out of the way, the nose swab went fine but I'm not sure I'd fancy doing it myself competently.
I've not had it done by a professional but I don't really feel like I did a self-administered one very well.
I rubbed the back of my throat and it was seriously grim - huge gag response. By contrast I can put things into my nose a long way (horizontal not vertical) without issue.
Sputum testing is coming...
I went to do a drive through test assuming someone else would swab. Was suprised when I was handed the test and instructions to do it myself.
I've self administered the test 3 times now (all negative) - back of the throat is grim but gets easier. Nose was no problem. I know people who are OK with the throat but not the nose.
Roll on a decent pin prick or spit test!
Don't panic everyone, the world-beating scientific experts of SAGE have told us that the number of infections is still going steadily down:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
I guess that means yesterday's 2-month high of 1441 cases (more than 4 times the low of 352 a few weeks back) just proves that we are now super-efficient at finding all the infected people!
Yay us. Quarantinis all round!
And yet we are imposing quarantine on travelers based on the case numbers in Spain, France ETC.?
Infection rates rather than absolute case numbers are more relevant- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/coronavirus-infection-rates-levelling-off-english-data-suggests
I guess that means yesterday’s 2-month high of 1441 cases (more than 4 times the low of 352 a few weeks back) just proves that we are now super-efficient at finding all the infected people!
I was wondering how this works also, and we continue to lift restrictions.
I know people who are OK with the throat
They'd be good at deep throating then, attractive?
I rubbed the back of my throat and it was seriously grim – huge gag response. By contrast I can put things into my nose a long way (horizontal not vertical) without issue.
What got me about the test is you take what ever is at the back of your throat and shove it up your nose. It just doesn't seem logical but it must makes sense in terms of testing.
If I'd realised going to a test centre was just an exercise in driving about a car park reading signs I'd have got a postal one. Don't think I spent enough time poking about with the cotton bud - having to keep moving on and digest everything that was happening whilst not feeling that perky. Sitting at home would have given me time to read everything a couple of times before prodding away.
So, clearly it was all Public Health England's fault...
But never fear, little Matty Handjob has got our backs...
And yet we are imposing quarantine on travelers based on the case numbers in Spain, France ETC.?
Gov probably wants to look like they are tough on Covid and not wanting to cross the the streams but why waste a useful pandemic opportunity in Game Of Brexit.
So, clearly it was all Public Health England’s fault…
But never fear, little Matty Handjob has got our backs…
Yep first thing that went thru my mind.
Looks like Didos getting a promotion for all her good work.
So, clearly it was all Public Health England’s fault…
I think TiRed has been pretty scathing about them throughout the thread. Handy scapegoats for the government though
It appears that massive privatisation is being screened by the emergency. The state has bought into a source of 'scientific' behavioural advice, presumably making them rich and overpaid but 'independent' members of the private civil service, they also have an organisation for channelling which academics get interviewed on tv, plus now a 2 person science/technology start-up with a linked name which received a £130m contract. Nobody is talking about this apart from a few references from eg Gabriel Scally of the IndieSage team. There's already some seriously rich people coming out of this, I wouldn't be surprised if some moved out of the jurisdiction so much money is involved. 'It's a fair cop, it was indeed a bit of jolly japes, but didn't you get the £30m cheque I sent with the postcard?'
According to the Torygraph Public Health England to be scrapped and replaced by new body run by Dido Harding. You know - the one who presided over the utterly failed test and trace system, the non-existent app, building on her previous success at Talk Talk where she lost all the customers data. Fun fact - her husband is a Tory MP who campaigns to privatise the NHS.
Britain is a corrupt failed state.
I think TiRed has been pretty scathing about [PHE] them throughout the thread. Handy scapegoats for the government though
Except they are not independent they are run by the govt so they are HIS responsibility
Well, you can be sure the replacement will be less “independent” … answer direct to Cummings, and you can pocket the millions.
Inevitable that PHE would get the blame, anyone but the government
If only we could find out which party created this overly centralised body & then spent a decade reducing its funding.
It's not like the strategic health authorities it supplanted specifically warned at the time that it would leave us vulnerable to pandemic
PHE came out of the 2009 influenza pandemic and is part of the NHS. NHSTT has come out of the 2020 COVID19 epidemic. The plan appears to bring all activities under a single body led by DH and reporting to Hancock. It’s not privatisation.
The academics are independent and can speak to the media on an independent basis. They will always state that their opinions are their own and not those of SAGE/SPI-M/B. They are unpaid.
If it's true that Dido Harding is in charge seems a bit worrying
My sister in law had symptoms on 5th August, got tested on 6th & didn't get results back until 9th (+ve)
She's never been contact traced
My mother in law was also worried so she got a test, but came back negative, but took 4 days to get results back
Schools open in 3 weeks, flu season can start as early as October, they really need to get on top of this
She's that good she was given the job by BJ without an interview:
Now that the government deaths data is focusing on deaths within 28 days of a positive test, are they actually more reflective of COVID deaths or not? I totally get that we can't just assume that anyone who dies and had a positive result some time in the past MUST have died of it, but don't some people take more than 28 days to die of it? Do those people tend to have tests later on in the course of the disease so still get counted?
The daily positives have climbed but there doesn't seem to be any increase in hospitalisations or people in ventilator beds, or deaths. It seems like the cases should be filtering through by now. Why is that? Is it different test strategies? Different demographics (e.g. case numbers being driven by young people who mostly don't end up in hospital or dead)?
She’s that good she was given the job by BJ without an interview:
I think he got his Didos mixed up.
I'm also a bit confused on how we are counting the deaths now - daily numbers seem much lower than I would have thought. If you test positive and die on day 29 are you not counted, even if it says "Covid" on the death certificate?
Is there any truth in the idea that it has mutated and become less deadly and this is why less people are dying now?
I had a google and found articles from about a month ago. Can't remember reading about it on this thread but might have missed it.
I understood the reduced death rate amongst increasing infected patients to be reflective of the current population in which it is spreading (ie younger people in a social context). These people are less likely to develop the complications that affect more vulnerable groups. the concern is that this creates a large pool of infected people with a consequential increased risk for the vulnerable groups
As myopic said.
We are also testing more, so some of the increase in numbers might be due to that. Though it seems implausible that all of it is, as SAGE claim.
I can see how a you get age group being affected would reduce the death rate, but iirc before the change in counting methodology we were running at 50-60 a day, then it seemed to more than halve, and we're now less than 10.
My concern is that the younger age group alone might not be the reason and something is being missed. Happy to be wrong, but I have so little faith in anything that is out out nowadays.
My concern is that the younger age group alone might not be the reason and something is being missed. Happy to be wrong, but I have so little faith in anything that is out out nowadays.
Could be something to do with the D614G mutation being less deadly but more virulent. Been mentioned a few times in the media.
Let's hope so!
I understood the reduced death rate amongst increasing infected patients to be reflective of the current population in which it is spreading (ie younger people in a social context). These people are less likely to develop the complications that affect more vulnerable groups. the concern is that this creates a large pool of infected people with a consequential increased risk for the vulnerable groups
If that is what's happening (and I agree with it) then that creates a lot more people carrying the virus without knowing or not getting enough symptoms to flag up for testing. Come Flu season in a few weeks - October onwards - then that's a large group that could infect the elderly and vulnerable at the worst time.
I could be (and genuinely hope to be) wrong but I see a rapid growth in cases and deaths that will be fuelled by lots of asymptomatic carriers, schools being back, workers returning to offices in larger numbers than now, the christmas party season kicking in (pubs will be pushing to allow larger gatherings and there will be pent up demand for letting your hair down) and the track-and-trace systems still being unable to work correctly. Everyone's going to have to be prepared for fast response to things from September onwards, something the bunch of clowns in charge will be ill-prepared to do.
Though it seems implausible that all of it is, as SAGE claim.
Why is it implausible? Testing has become a lot more targeted and more widely available, you test more in those infected areas you find more.
Aberdeen is a good example 220 odd cases, it's unlikely they'd have found those 220 back in the earlier days of the pandemic, you'd only have found the symptomatics that come forward and could get a test. Doesn't mean the carriers weren't out there, just didn't record them as couldn't get them tested or they didn't know they needed one.
Why is it implausible? Testing has become a lot more targeted and more widely available, you test more in those infected areas you find more.
well yes and no..
https://www.politico.eu/article/does-more-coronavirus-testing-mean-more-cases/
Why is it implausible? Testing has become a lot more targeted and more widely available, you test more in those infected areas you find more.
Testing is still taking days to get results back though, even for hospital staff
While it's good to get an accurate snapshot, it really doesn't help keep things under control
Mind boggling that Dido Harding has been given a promotion, considering how badly the service is underperforming
You mean, what with her husband being an MP that wants to dismantle the NHS, or with the fact that she already has links to the Conservatives?
'The government has blamed PHE for mistakes for which it was never responsible, and placed it under the control of those who were.' S Reicher
Are we going to get an update today on the extra restrictions Oop North?
Testing is still taking days to get results back though, even for hospital staff
About 2 weeks ago I got a (negative) home test result SMS less than 24h after sticking it in the postbox. So that doesn't align with 'days to get results back' but I may just have been lucky. Is there a consistent set of metrics reported for test turnaround time or are we just relying on individual accounts to form a picture? If it's the latter then it may be that there is a bias toward talking about poor experiences.