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All good then Dazh, I'd like to be able to say the same about France but it's quite variable. On the whole it's good but places popular with young adult party goers are a little too festive.
@Edukator - do you think that the rural/mountainous areas like the Vosges/Jura/Auvergne will be quieter than normal?
We're still thinking about going in early Sept if France is not on the Quarantine list and we're allowed to leave the UK.
Some parts of Auvergne have had their busiest season ever as people have opted for staycations in Covid free areas, that still doesn't mean they are busy by any objective measure. We spent a night in Cernay, Vosges which was really quiet as was driving through the Jura. By September the kids are back to school so it'll only be French oldies holidaying along with a few Dutch, Germans and Brits. The number of foreign plates is nowhere near normal for this time of year and there will be less in September.
It'll be quiet almost everywhere unless you go to places that are always busy late season such St Jean de Luz, Arcachon... .
Merci
I am just back from a week in the Durance valley and a week in the Maurienne. Definitely quieter than usual, but not abandoned by any means. We stayed in apartments (usually we camp) and set up click and collect for Supermarket shopping. Covid precautions always clear and very well observed. Masks and hand sanitiser everywhere. Appropriate social distancing at all times. As tourists, we were very well received by all those with whom we came into contact. Biking was quiet, via ferratas always had someone else visible on the route as we arrived or left, but not busy. One climbing crag got busier at one point, and that was as we were leaving. Quite a few Dutch and Belgians and Italians, some Germans and Swiss, very very few Brits. I didn't hear English being spoken anywhere. Saw one Norwegian car all trip. Took the Eurotunnel to avoid interactions. Never done it before, and I was quite impressed.
The most alarming part of the whole trip seeing the behaviour in England on our drive back to Scotland. I get the rationale of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, but when we went through the McDonald's Drive Through at Leeming Bar the interior was mobbed with "diners" in close proximity seemingly grinning from ear to ear over the cash they'd saved. Is it worth it to save £2 per person?
The Mash nails it again:
If by "interesting" you mean white washing based on dubious suppositions, yes, it is.
The "rising but no where near as high as the previous peak" is just the new "rising but no where near as high as Italy" from earlier in the year. Ignore the rise, and don't act to stop it, and things can only go one way. Sorry.
As for the defence of the track/trace/isolate... it reads like PR from Serco (Dido in interviews constantly repeating the NHS branding they have been given to use is really grating with me right now)... for example... "NHS Test and Trace employs more than 20,000 call handlers and contact tracers" ...yes, they have employed those staff, but they are mostly still twiddling their thumbs waiting to be used properly. Paying people tax payers money to do little to nothing is an odd metric to try and prove "success" with.
Anyway... when do we get that contact tracing app that was promised for May... June.. ?
From the same article :
But most people agree it is unrealistic to expect a service that was put together in a matter of weeks to be perfect from day one
FFS - this is the kind of completely stupid spin that makes me resent paying my BBC licence fee - the reason the service was put together in a matter of weeks is that the pathetic scarecrow in No 10 sat on his fat lazy arse for months instead of getting moving on what was obviously going to be needed.
Scotland, I think. Oh, you said when, not where, my mistake.
It's not saying ignore the recent rise in cases at all.
It would be useful if they could more regularly publish positive tests as a proportion of tests carried out, or even hospital admissions with suspected Covid for local areas. Both would be a more reliable guide.
As it is, we don't know how much is grumbling along in the background until it gets into the elderly population and we start to see admissions rising. By which time, infections will have doubled twice at least.
And now they will be asking local authorities to make decisions on pub/shop reclosures (classic shifting of unpopular decisions), but are they getting decent data on which to make those decisions?
FFS – this is the kind of completely stupid spin that makes me resent paying my BBC licence fee – the reason the service was put together in a matter of weeks is that the pathetic scarecrow in No 10 sat on his fat lazy arse for months instead of getting moving on what was obviously going to be needed.
Couldn't agree more. They've known since March that the only way to get out of lockdown successfully was aggressive test and trace, and it seems they've done virtually **** all about it. I posted a while back about how the government would squander the few months of relaxed lockdown, and it seems that's the case.
If by “interesting” you mean white washing based on dubious suppositions, yes, it is.
Did seem a strange article, given how the Beebs Reality Check and other articles have been pulling government action apart quite well
Scotland, I think. Oh, you said when, not where, my mistake.
Do Scotland have the app rolled out now? I didn't realise. I knew Northern Ireland had (and every other country in the world that I know someone living in).
As I understand it sunscreen means no or little vitamin D production, vitamin D comes from UVB and sunscreen blocks that.
Correct. I take a daily supplement. around 3p per day. Probably not necessary in the summer months but won't do any harm. Almost certainly helpful during dark SCottish winters.
I didn't think it was available in Scotland yet... the switch to the Irish developers was only announced the other week.
I posted a while back about how the government would squander the few months of relaxed lockdown, and it seems that’s the case.
That was their response to the EU negotiation extension period too, this is no different. Why do something that could be wrong, when you can do nothing.
Well I booked an air BnB for the south coast at half term, same place we were supposed to go in April. I now fully expect to see a second wave build as the school's go back and lockdown restrictions return.
I'd go away now but it's not really the best time with a 6 week old baby. Although how much different it would be with a 16 week old.... Other than he should be sleeping through by then.... Who knows if we will get to enjoy a little holiday this year? I don't.
Other than he should be sleeping through by then….
You're more optimistic than Boris about Covid! 😉
Our world beating track & trace system is a complete **** up, did we really expect anything different though?
https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1290961849106804736?s=21
Anyway… when do we get that contact tracing app that was promised for May… June.. ?
IMHO I don’t think your getting one but tbh every time you grab your lunch at pret your gonna get a close pass and have to isolate 🙂
Haha educator! Nah, this is little'un #3 so we know what we are doing much better. He was a bit small when he arrived but he's gaining weight fast so will soon be at the magic 10lb ish mark where they are big enough to sleep through. #2 started it after 8 weeks, really good that.
So unlike Boris, I think I know what I'm talking about and am planning accordingly! 😂
I read that BBC article and my first thoughts were who paid him off.
Testing, testing …
https://twitter.com/fullfact/status/1291018624539471879?s=21
And I see that the Scottish government is acting in Aberdeen in a manner that doesn’t assume that there is some kind of magic in place in pubs, cafes and restaurants that prevents transmission.
Fifty million face masks bought by the government in April will not be used in the NHS because of safety concerns.
The government says the masks, which use ear-loop fastenings rather than head loops, may not fit tightly enough.
They were bought for healthcare workers from supplier Ayanda Capital as part of a £252m contract.
Ayanda says the masks meet the specifications the government had set out. The government says its safety standards process is "robust".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53672841
Just a normal day for the government. There is a bright side though:
It also emerged that the person who originally approached the government about the deal was a government trade adviser who also advises the board of Ayanda.
But he told the BBC his position played no part in the awarding of the contract.
So that's all OK and above board then.
And apparently not the only iffy PPE contract (blame Russ if its not accurate)...
http://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1288475850434912256?s=19
£186m to Uniserve. PPE not delivered
£116m to P14 Medical Supplies, with assets of just £145. PPE not delivered
£108m to PestFix, with just 16 employees. PPE not delivered
£107m to Clandeboye Agencies, a sweet wholesaler. Yes, a sweet wholesaler. PPE not delivered.
£40m to Medicine Box Ltd, with assets of just £6000. PPE not delivered.
£48m to Initia Ventures Ltd, which registered itself as “dormant” in March. PPE not delivered.
£28m to Monarch Acoustics, which makes shop furniture. PPE not delivered
£25m to Luxe Lifestyle, which has no employees, no assets, and no turnover. PPE not delivered
£18m to Aventis Solutions, which has total assets of £332. Not a typo, £332. PPE not delivered
£10m to Medco Solutions, incorporated just 3 days after lockdown, with share capital of (not a typo) £2. PPE not delivered.
So, we’re not getting a contact tracing app at all in England now? Downgraded to an info only one… without a delivery date? [ No links yet, this is a word of mouth rumour ]
It also emerged that the person who originally approached the government about the deal was a government trade adviser who also advises the board of Ayanda.
But he told the BBC his position played no part in the awarding of the contract.So that’s all OK and above board then
it does seem that a lot of the usual suspects have been certainly making hay while the usual rules regarding competitive tendering have been put on hold.
Snouts well and truly in the trough
The Times has the story about the contact tracing app not contact tracing… apparently (BBC radio4 reporting of what The Times has) it‘s going ask you lots of lifestyle questions, and tell you the local risks. Great. Couldn’t a webpage do that? Data gathering with none of the actual (and once described by the government as vital) contact tracing?
I can’t find the story on The Times site… their cartoon is appropriate though…
And this cost how much ?
£15 per month?
Suspect this is probably one of the more accurate track and trace stories... 😂
So, whose received a survey from the ONS then? Our government is so bad at this pandemic, that "...this survey will be used to find the best way to manage the COVID 19 Pandemic..."
EG. They want the publics advice to help out. They must be screaming bonkers. My good natured ideas will be collected and used against me by Cummings, I'm not taking this Survey, I wonder how much it cost to put out, collate and er, likely be thrown in a bin.
And breathe. I’ve read it properly. Blood tests and swabs, I’m ok with that.
I wonder how long it will be until France is on the quarantine list
Always worth a squizz:
So, we’re not getting a contact tracing app at all in England now? Downgraded to an info only one… without a delivery date? [ No links yet, this is a word of mouth rumour ]
I just don’t think it would ever work with the 1m+ fantasy distancing rules as the app would be unable to accurately discern whether people were wearing masks/behind plastic screens not talking directly to one another,next to aircon etc.
I actually get a Your risk and threat levels in your area type app and it’s probably not a bad idea.
On returning to school, BJ has moved from 'science' to 'morals'. Not quite sure which ones Boris has though.
He has no understanding of either.
Re da app.
I wish I’d put a tender in, but possibly a proven track record and no Tory donations or ministerial Mates would have gone against me.
A couple of mill for the newly specced one would be happy daze 🙂
And with that, he's off to Scotland on his holibobs... Clearly nothing going on nationally that needs his attention (although I guess his boss might still be at work to sort everything out?).
So much for '...working flat out'.
returning to school, BJ has moved from ‘science’ to ‘morals’. Not quite sure which ones Boris has though.
Its ok Boris said it was safe for children, no mention of their family or School Staff.
I just don’t think it would ever work with the 1m+ fantasy distancing rules as the app would be unable to accurately discern whether people were wearing masks/behind plastic screens not talking directly to one another,next to aircon etc.
It’s not about detecting people breaking the guidelines, it’s about letting people know if they have shared a space with people who have found out they have the virus. All the good advice (2m still stands, and 1m+ with mitigation such as mask is an alternative) does not prevent transmission, it merely reduces it. People isolating if they have the virus is the only way to stop it, and a contact tracing app can help people to identify that they could be carrying it, and to get a test, and isolate if positive. Of course, it’s useless alone, it requires good policy around testing and support for those isolating, but it IS needed.
I actually get a Your risk and threat levels in your area type app and it’s probably not a bad idea.
An app isn’t required for that. A gov.uk page would do it.
Having an objective of keeping schools open is no bad thing. At least one can organise testing and all other actions around a single objective. The consequences of this objective may have knock-on effects for the rest of society such as reducing contacts elsewhere. But it is a coherent strategy.
We believe that about 50% of transmission is in schools. But that may not come to pass as schools reopen. See how the cases increase by the end of September. It may come as a surprise, but I could only find two decent studies of schools opening. One in Korea, hardly representative, showed no additional cases. One in France showed that cases in children mimicked those in adults.
Prevalence studies show no age differences in rates of infection. Establishing child to adult transmission has been more challenging (Study related) but the null hypothesis is that children can spread the virus to adults. The attack rate in a house looks is about 50%. So think children can pass the virus on within the home. If living with vulnerable adults, I’d limit contacts if a school has tested positive. I’d also be testing schools weekly, including teachers.
Expect more local lockdowns, closure of facilities, restricted commuting and no lifting of mask wearing. Children will get used to having nose swabs.
But it is a coherent strategy.
If it had been the strategy since May, I’d agree. Attempting to move to it as kids are returning for the new term sounds a lot like just more government as a PR exercise.
Having an objective of keeping schools open is no bad thing.
No doubt, I'm just amused by the fact that they still spout the children are not likely to get ill rubbish and people still fall for it without thinking, hang on what if my kids pass it to me? (I get no one gives a shite about the staff). Mind you I'm still seeing loads of people in shops with masks not covering noses so shouldnt be too surprised, how stupid do you need to be.
This is probably the most comprehensive summary of schools at the moment. Not a lot of data and less knowledge.
Basically it is hard to tease any reasonable patterns. Older children seem to have the same transmission as adults but less morbidity. Younger children may or may not. This may or may not be down to expression levels of ACR2 in tissues. Masks have and have not been made compulsory but their efficacy has not been tested.
If I was an at risk teacher in a secondary school, I’d wear a mask whilst at school at all times. Particularly if teaching in a secondary school.
frankconway
SubscriberSo much for ‘…working flat out’.
Oh be fair, after all they've been literally "working night and day" for months now, he's due a sleep
We believe that about 50% of transmission is in schools.
That seems an implausibly high estimate to me.
R is likely above 1 already, despite what SAGE say. It's not high enough to be a problem right now but the combination of schools, furlough winding down and worse weather is likely to cause problems.
Is it of any interest to this discussion that my wife who's an assistant head gets annoyed with the headlines that teachers/heads are not happy with schools going back? She says the unions have not consulted their members and are making statements that don't represent the staff of schools. She says there's an overwhelming desire in her school to get the job done. Teachers and heads want their kids back, they know how vulnerable a lot of the children are and that matters more than the risks.
Teachers and heads want their kids back, they know how vulnerable a lot of the children are and that matters more than the risks.
That's just as much a generalisation as the thing you're arguing against.
My trust for example, has taken a very firm and vocal line of 'only what's best and safe for everyone involved'. That might be everyone back in as 'normal', but might also look very different in some local contexts. As a teacher and Head of Year, I absolutely want what is best for the students in my care, but would not want to put anyone at risk to achieve that - all I ask is for the information to be able to form an opinion on what that might look like...
That seems an implausibly high estimate to me.
It’s based on mixing patterns and transmission of influenza. So yes, hopefully it is a big over-estimate. But secondary schools will be interesting because they look like pubs for transmission. Same explosive close contact transmission pattern.
We will see. But the science is pretty cloudy. Politicians love certainty but that’s not how science works in its infancy.
Yeah Colournoise, didn't read my post back. Meant to say the teachers and head at her school were overwhelmingly in support of going back. Can't speak for other schools as I don't know their opinions.
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So Boris has been applauded by the WHO for his hard and fast approach to local lockdowns, and our increase are smaller than Spain and a France. This sounds good?
What do you think?
This sounds good?
Sadly, that's all that seems to matter.
Hmm… I hadn’t realised that Edward Argar, health minister, was Serco’s PR man. That’s a coincidence. How’s our “world beating” centralised TTI going? Still using the “NHS” badge? Still obstructing local TTI efforts? At least Serco have announced they’re going to get rid of some of the staff they’d had twiddling their thumbs for months waiting for the system to get going.
What do you think?
I'm not allowed to post that because some people think I'm too negative...
You can post whatever you like but expect to be called out if you post rubbish
It’s a plandemic not pandemic…
^ I’ll bite. Does that mean terrorism, biological warfare? Does it mean that the course of the pandemic is subject to planning? Specifics, evidence? Cute phrase, but what are you actually saying?
^^ Ah, new profile. First comment.
I’ve been had.
@Malvern Rider - ignore Tonka, they're just toying with you
Hands up who's getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
The favoured method is to annoy him, wait around a bit and then he'll send a couple of lads to administer it at your front doorstep.
Ah no no no, it will be 100% voluntary.
Honest.
Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
After you. I like my vaccines GLP tested and subject to suitable efficacy trials. All medicines and vaccines are given based on benefit-risk. The Russian adenovirus does not have a measure of either (yet). Derek Lowe is always worth a read. He's as scathing as me!
Nah it’ll be ok. He tested it on his least favourite daughter.
An obvious lie, no?
@TiRed - that Derek Lowe article is interesting and makes some good points
Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
No need for that, Dom has some comrade mates, he's going to get a vaccine deal for the UK that will make the ~£1Bn PPE scandal look a drop in the ocean.
Nah it’ll be ok. He tested it on his least favourite daughter.
The legion Boris kids must be relieved about the animosity and anonymity that'll spare them this sort of PR nonsense.
Sunak's response to recession and unemployment, 'nobody will be left without hope.' That's cheering and it's good to know he's got a plan.