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Never mind Barnard Castle. Think bigger. How about Greece?
https://twitter.com/TomEPPayne/status/1278594574986944512?s=20
Face coverings mandatory in shops as of next week in Scotland. Makes sense.
Yep, think that's necessary- still probably no more than a quarter of people wearing them when I've been in the shops, it seems to be soemthing Scotland's not "got"
Aye, I'd say even less then that here, and lots of them not covering their nostrils. 🙈
Guy on the train today (into London), no mask & left a pile of tissues on the table when he got off
Well dressed elder gentleman too fwiw
A lot of people haven't got it
A friend of mine works in a supermarket - she has some hilarious stories about what people wear on their faces - esp older people for some reason, who maybe can't see well enough what they have fished out of the pants drawer.
I keep one in my bag just in case (mask, not pants) I am asked to put in on in a shop.
I have been in one shop since they re-opened and I asked the woman working there - she said she tried a mask but it got so hot and hard to breath.
Wearing a mask but pulled down below the nose is also quite popular.
I'm usually the only mask-wearer when I'm shopping. Compulsion can't come soon enough.
No social distancing for under 11s either.
Never mind Barnard Castle. Think bigger. How about Greece?
"Covid proofing my villa"
That's a cracker.
5 mile restriction on movement to stay in place for covid cluster in Dumfries & Galloway
What is the ****ing point of opening up scotland to every rancid covid infected **** south of the border to move freely around scotland whilst dropping the virus around to all and sundry?.
As far as i know my home town of Kirkcudbright has been entirely covid free so far (small town so news travels fast and no one knows of any cases) but there is an alarming amount of tourists already arriving and walking aimlessly about in the area now that restrictions are to be lifted, from zero waiting in queue to access the wee supermarket last week to queue's of 10/20 folk the past couple of days.
Grrr...time to stand outside the town with a big sign stating **** off back home.
Mrs Sturgeon also asked people not to cross the border to visit pubs in England at the weekend! Fair one I think.
@somafink I know the feeling. Langholm is still under the "old" rules, and only a few miles from us. Fortunately we're too far south of the tweed to be attractive to those heading there. But i can see us being sandwiched between two lockdown areas and so for ease also locked down.
I'm hoping things improve in D&G as i was hoping to catch up with some pals from KBT Academy at the end of July but we're all waiting to see.
As far as i know my home town of Kirkcudbright has been entirely covid free so far (small town so news travels fast and no one knows of any cases)
I wouldn't rely on the jungle drums. I've heard the same said about other small towns where cases have, indeed, been detected.
Are we seeing an atypical virus evolution.... easier to catch but less lethal ?
scotroutes : my doc dropped his bike off last weekend so i could do a quick service and sort his gears out and he mentioned that we have been very fortunate in the town to escape the virus so i took that to mean there has been no cases so far
And on another note regarding campsites etc it appears the local campsites/caravan parks are not opening up so thats good.
Travel appears to have changed from a few travel corridors to, reportedly, dozens of exempt countries. Anyone else thinking it's the usual talk a good game and then go f-it that's far too much work for Funtime on you go folks. The whole doing it all at No10 approach does just seem to continually churn out reckless, ****less or blatantly for self interest bodge jobs. No doubt Mr Cummings views on civil servants needing to face consequences for failure don't apply to him.
Are we seeing an atypical virus evolution…. easier to catch but less lethal ?
Is that not typical evolution? something that causes instant death is very difficlut to pass on, something where people can go about their daily lives breathing on, hugging and touching stuff without even knowing they have a problem, or thinking it is so minor they may as well carry on is very transmittable.
Different patterns of contact may mean the spread is currently restricted mostly to younger/fitter people - which would be great so long as they don't then go and have contact with more vulnerable people.
If we could infect 100% of the under-50s (excluding particularly vulnerable) and none of the over 60s then it would be pretty much job done at minimal harm. NB I'm not pretending there would be zero harm, there would still be death and serious long-term illness for a small proportion. But that's happening anyway, with no end in sight.
If we could infect 100% of the under-50s (excluding particularly vulnerable) and none of the over 60s then it would be pretty much job done at minimal harm
Assumes lasting immunity post infection. This is far from established, sadly.
I’m not pretending there would be zero harm
Have you worked out how many hospitalisations and deaths that is?
Is that not typical evolution?
sorry that's what I meant 🙂 I was confusing myself.
Well if the progenitor was SARS-CoV1 then, yes, pathogens evolve to reduced pathogenicity on average.
As for evolution of SARS-CoV2, I am less convinced at this point. It still is very early in the course of this pathogen.
Grrr…time to stand outside the town with a big sign stating **** off back home.
Theres a bike for sale in Kirkcud that I've had my eye on, think I'll bring my southern infected ridden ass on up and spread some love while I buy it.
What bike?,
Well if the progenitor was SARS-CoV1 then, yes, pathogens evolve to reduced pathogenicity on average.
As for evolution of SARS-CoV2, I am less convinced at this point. It still is very early in the course of this pathogen.
I guess the other thing they evolve is to have the longest transmissible period where they can be transferred to a new host though?
As for lasting immunity, well even if it wears off over time, it's reasonable to hope (agree it's not proven) that subsequent infection would be milder and widespread partial immunity would keep the prevalence under control. A bit like colds and flu.
As for hospitalisations and deaths, it would be about 0.05% IFR for that age range, so 30 million cases would be about 15k deaths, though potentially rather lower if the vulnerable fraction within that age range could keep isolated (eg obese, diabetic, and other conditions with markedly poorer outcomes). Certainly a small number in comparison to what we've had so far, and currently there is no workable plan for any outcome other than cross our fingers and hope for a vaccine.
Have you worked out how many hospitalisations and deaths that is?
Off of the top of my head around 250,000 deaths if we 'get it done' in one go.
Maybe thecaptain could get a job working for Boris Bullshit?
Well if the progenitor was SARS-CoV1 then, yes, pathogens evolve to reduced pathogenicity on average.
As for evolution of SARS-CoV2, I am less convinced at this point. It still is very early in the course of this pathogen.
Luckily, we, and then the US, are providing plenty of hosts to allow the opportunity for mutation and get a swifter answer.
Maybe dannyh could read what I actually wrote and look up how the IFR varies with age.
Maybe dannyh could read what I actually wrote and look up how the IFR varies with age.
TBF I tried to take that into account which is why I didn't come up with 360,000.
Deleted.
Didn't think we had press conferences any more?
Ad-hoc pressers; not regular/routine.
Hmmm they’re still not really getting it.
Ad-hoc pressers; not regular/routine.
Irregular Indoctrination 🙂
I think they’re planning a revival in the winter.
Downing Street to cut back Whitehall communications unit
(Sorry it’s a bit paywally but wanted to quote source)
Hmm what could possibly be happening this winter that HM Gov might want to draw public & media attention away from by reviving Covid briefings. Does it start with a B?
Bristmas?
Banta Claus?
Boris' 3 pm Christmas Day Speech?
PHE now publishing Pillar 1 & 2 at local level. A couple of slightly different reports...
https://www.scribd.com/document/467854855/Rates-by-Lower-Tier-V1
https://www.scribd.com/document/467854853/Rates-by-Lower-Tier-V2
Thanks Neil O - those charts are really clear. Just to confirm they include P1+2 data?
Remind me again - what are the quarantine rules?
Obviously they can't possibly apply to someone as important as Farage.
The channel4 news from Soho was interesting. Not much social distancing.
Our local news was the same - either some strange and extended households, or 2 metres is much close than I thought.
dantsw13, yes, both Pillar 1 and 2.
Where is the pillar 2 data published Neil, I have t seen it for download. Pillar 1 I’ve been analysing for weeks at LTLA level. I thought I might apply the same metrics.
But you really need number of negative tests as well as positive.
Interesting piece on how the role of scientific advisors has changed:
That's been my source too, but I can't see a separation between the two, which is what would be most helpful. testing frequency/100k is what matters.
That’s a good piece Bill. Sage should be helping government, and the public, to understand the science, not justifying the decisions the no10 ‘team’ has made.
Interesting piece on how the role of scientific advisors has changed:
The blame it on the science narrative seems to have taken very effectively. A month or so back the more pro-team Boris people I know were of the view it was a new situation, government was doing it's best. Yesterday it was Team Boris hadn't cocked anything up he had just received bad advice from the scientists.
We had our first day without Covid deaths today in Wales, I'm of course completely aware that it's been helped by the usual weekend lag, but along with only 8 new reported cases I refuse to see it as anything but good news.
I've no idea how it will all pan out in Wales, but I hope that we have many more days like this, without the help of a weekend lag.
Well this is interesting - hypothesis that CV has been sleeping everywhere until now. But what is the basis of the stuff abouts bats and whatnot?
Well this is interesting – hypothesis that CV has been sleeping everywhere until now. But what is the basis of the stuff abouts bats and whatnot?
There have been a few, I can't think of a better word than 'things' recently that point towards COVID having been around for a lot longer than thought.
On one hand the idea it might just 'go away' is lovely thought, apart from the fact Trump pretty said it would and he's just the kind of lucky fool to be right.
On the other hand, the whole 'right environmental conditions' is scary, what if it's just sitting there in the systems of hundreds of thousands of people, waiting for summer to end.
Interesting theory - we had the "found in last year's water samples" story a month or two back and then it went quiet on that front.
Not sure I buy into the theory yet without more concrete evidence - so it's just lurking there waiting for just the right moment for it to emerge? Presumably it should then be traced in even older water samples? Or was it activated remotely by our evil reptilian overlords when they turned on the 5G towers?
Interesting BBC headline this morning announcing Mongolia had a case of bubonic plague, but on reading the details it appears it's endemic around the world. May CV is, or will go, the same way.
Not sure I entirely buy the "it's been everywhere for ages and suddenly just got switched on" angle.
What's more likely, the magic sleeping worldwide virus, or, a bunch of folks actually had it following the real patient zero picking it up from bat/toad/dog, but either had a mild case, an asymptomatic case, or a serious case that was diagnosed as something else; then later, the wet market patient zero got identified with this new virus and presto, the bag was out of the cat.
Don't get me wrong I don't discount it being around for a long time, but the nature of exponential growth and all that, we'e still only detecting 10% of the cases, so it is entirely believable we had the same exponential growth for a long while before actually spotting it.
Interesting theory – we had the “found in last year’s water samples” story a month or two back and then it went quiet on that front.
I'd lay money on that Spanish one that detected from March 2019 being a lab cock up
(I work in a lab & have made many 😜)
That study is from the end of May, looking at antibody results which looks back in time several weeks. So doesn't really tell you anything useful at this point.
Of course, it could have been “everywhere” already (although I doubt that very much) before jumping species to us. Kitchen waste or run off from land could be the source of positive tests in sewers (if they aren’t just mistakes).
It can't have been spreading exponentially from a significantly earlier time. If there were much earlier cases, either they just luckily didn't spread at all (eg just a handful of cases coming from an animal source) or else it was a slightly different strain that was much less contagious.
Things don’t just get switched on. It is possible that multiple importations occurred. These create possible transmission chains. Some of which will die out by chance. One will take off (again by chance) and start to spread. The R value is a measure of the probability that a chain will take off.
It probably arrived multiple times, from Wuhan, where there was ample supply of people who may not have been showing symptoms, from Italy where people appear to have, and even Spain later in the epidemic.
Tracking back to patient zero or trying to estimate how long the virus has been circulating is a nice idea. But things don’t work like that in epidemic land.
Analyses the cases data. Really needs tests to make the most sense. Might look at the national level with tests, cases, admissions and deaths data (that’s the only level that has the consistent Data chain). East Midlands was always an outlier.
Btw you can swap Spain and U.K. in that paper. The two are synonymous as far as The virus is concerned. I’ve stated all along that I don’t believe in exceptionalism. The law of mass action is equally unkind.
Agree with that although it's a bit more subtle than just R. If every case infects 2 new people, then R is two and the first imported case will definitely spread. If 90% of cases infect no-one and 10% infect 20 each, then R is still two but it's quite likely that the first few imported cases will not lead to an outbreak.
I've seen mention of a k parameter to quantify this effect, though not bothered to look up how it's defined.
The R of two can be thought of as the mean of a Poisson process. So on average an individual produces two secondary infections. The variance of a poisson process is the mean, so you can get a range. In fact the number of secondary infections is “over-dispersed” with variance larger than the mean. This can be described with a negative binomial distribution, and k is really a measure of ratio of variance to mean.
One commercial healthcare worker can really screw up your estimation of R. Pun intended. K measures degree of superspreading.
DrJ:
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1280046617614303237
Poor show for the dark blues in corona-science so far.
Ooh they’ve done it nice with county numbers of infections and showing the uptake of the app...
Anyway Overrated..... just get the pub doors open, it’ll all sort itself out.
App looks pretty sensible. Simple and has the right balance of input and information. And the option to opt out. Son2 is off to Carlow to study in September. I’ll have him test it.
By contrast, I suspect that the NHSTT app has competing interests (Kings college for Covid symptoms, Oxford for the location analytics), multiple stakeholders in the development process, and over-ambitious objectives.
Yeah, it sort of feels like they're trying to be Betamax next year, whereas what we need is VHS out there and doing something already and being used.
you have to be kidding
Thin end of the wedge H&S cost clawback in the brave new Brexit?
I'm going for Cummings having his fingers all over this one.
This would mean the first thing NHS workers / careworkers see that impacts on their pay in the new Covid world is a tax increase.
Sunak has confirmed that the BIK test issue is now being reviewed urgently.
I can see this being on Starmer's short list for tomorrow's PMQs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53319517
Maybe there is a God
Sorry, I can't wish this virus on anyone.
Usually I'd agree with you matt but he is personally responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of people, and not just through incompetence and not giving a shit like our halfwit PM, which is bad enough, but willfully. If this takes him out of the picture it's almost bound to save many people from the same fate.
Thin end of the wedge H&S cost clawback in the brave new Brexit?
Probably just existing rules that shouldn't apply to an unprecedented situation. Not the most subtle way of pointing out to the rule makers that they have a problem though!
Sorry, I can’t wish this virus on anyone.
Can’t beat a bit of old school
you reap what you sow
Thou..
On the "benefit in kind" for covid tests. My cynical view is Sunak has been too popular during this crisis and this is intended to reverse that.
Cummings fingerprints allover it