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We’re selfish.
Most of us aren't. Most people have complied and most people support the measures being taken, according to polls.
Just for anyone who thinks that being fit and healthy and even young means that covid-19 will be 'like a mild flu', here's an excellent piece from the Guardian about long-haul covid-19, which I and several others on here are still suffering from - 16th week of it in my case. The idea that if you don't get hospitalised, all will be fine is bobbins for a lot of people. Most long-haulers actually have a relatively mild experience of covid, it's the aftermath that's horrendous. Thanks Boris.
I think its the people with the common sense that are still being careful, staying 2m apart, wearing masks in public places and knowing there is still a risk of catching this awful virus.
At first I was against mask wearing because of the general public not being used to them and constantly touching the mask near the mouth and nose. However the public are getting better at wearing one and wearing it correctly.
I for one will not be going to the hairdressers or pub. Am shopping locally in independent stores which are all geared up to safely serving the customer and looking after their staff.
Oh and one thing that's getting on my nerves is people thinking the 2m distancing is over on 4th July. It is still 2 metres going down to 1m plus if this is not possible.
And other mitigation where 2m isn't possible.
It is still 2 metres going down to 1m plus if this is not possible.
How much blame attaches to the media for dumbing down the garbled messages that are being put out by the government? Very disappointed that large chunks of all media have picked the sexy headline rather than gone for clarifying the real important messages
The Leicester thing is interesting. Reports suggest the positive tests are in the poorer, more densely populated part of the city, which have higher BAME population, and I’m going out on a limb, a higher population in more physical close contact factory work.
Its been similar in the North West, where you've had clusters in areas like Rochdale and Blackburn. Apparently it's a combination of large multi-generational households in densely populated areas where some members are in jobs with the highest risk of exposure to coronavirus
Sigh.
They have no chance of having successful “local lockdowns” now anyway. People will just leave the city to go and stay with friends and families in lower risk rural areas, if they can.
And this - the entire West Midland knows this now, so will a virus filled mini population off they go across the country to escape a lockdown. FFS.
Just found part of my local loop closed. It has been pretty busy so I've only been there early or on days with poor weather (and not stopping, just riding through). Its a little pond, but popular with families and wild swimmers. There was often a mountain of rubbish by the bin. Reading the reasons (on another sign I didn't photgraph) I suspect people are using the woods as a toilet too. Shame for some to spoil it for the rest
And other mitigation where 2m isn’t possible.
Mitigation isn't the headline. 2m isn't the headline. Hell, 1m "plus" isn't the headline.
The signal is that social distancing is over... but plausible deniability is maintained... it'll be the fault of the public if they are foolish enough to do what they were signalled to do.
I'd take a genuinely Conservative government over this Cummings one any day... government and governance is in the hands of a sociopath.
I suspect people are using the woods as a toilet too. Shame for some to spoil it for the rest
It is, but it's also a shame that people are encouraged to go out when the facilities needed are not available.
It is, but it’s also a shame that people are encouraged to go out when the facilities needed are not available.
Absolutely agree that the management of the pandemic has been totally shambolic and a big part of the blame for general bad behaviour rests on the government's shoulders. That said in this instance there never have been any facilities anywhere nearby. Normally it is somewhere to go for an hour or two but I think people have been using it as a day out in the absence of being able to go to the beach.
It is, but it’s also a shame that people are encouraged to go out when the facilities needed are not available.
I can go all day without needing a shit. I honestly can't remember the last time I needed to use the facilities (natural or artificial) whilst out on a walk or bike ride.
I know the government stopped comparing the “success” of its response to what has been happening in other countries… but we shouldn’t…
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1277639980253417472?s=21
5 cases for Scotland today apparently, no deaths in 4 days. I'm not seeing lots of idiots flaunting the rules in scotland and I put this very much down to the messaging from the Scottish government. The contrast between how they have handled it compared to Westminster is stark.
Got to say wee nic has been hugely impressive thoughout this whole episode. I reckon she's done more for the independence cause in last 3 month's than the snp have done in the previous 6 years!
Got to say wee nic has been hugely impressive thoughout this whole episode. I reckon she’s done more for the independence cause in last 3 month’s than the snp have done in the previous 6 years!
If she achieved independence from a Cummings led England, I'd try and emigrate. Dumfries and Galloway appeals
I can go all day without needing a shit. I honestly can’t remember the last time I needed to use the facilities (natural or artificial) whilst out on a walk or bike ride.
Lucky you, don't judge others' needs by your own. I was a little irritated to find the public toilets on one of my regualar cycling routes closed due to Covid. They'd turned off the public tap too which when it's over 30°C and there isn't another for over an hour forces walkers/cyclists to knock on doors and make contact with people to beg for water.
They’d turned off the public tap too which when it’s over 30°C and there isn’t another for over an hour forces walkers/cyclists to knock on doors and make contact with people to beg for water.
Or here is an idea. Only go as far as you have water to sustain you. No one is forcing you to go out cycling or walking for huge distances.
If some nugget chapped on my door in the midst of this pandemic asking for water as they had gone out on an adventure and hadn't planned ahead, I'd be very tempted to tell them where to go..
As for switching off water fountains and taps for general usage...not exactly rocket science why they'd do that is it.
Shops and schools closed in Leicester, sounds far too decisive for Boris, more likely local councillors and alike.
The big question is... Will they now close the city limit roads?
As for switching off water fountains and taps for general usage…not exactly rocket science why they’d do that is it.
Do tell. The water isn't a problem and using a tap with aseptic technique isn't rocket science either.
No-one is stopping me going out and cycling or walking huge distances either, not even over the borders.
I was kindly asvised where to go: the cemetry where the tap was still working. So the local authorities are happy to provide water for the dead but not the living. The toilets in the public library are open, in the swimming pool.
There are inconsistencies everywhere in Covid decisions and if you shut toilets where people are used to using them don't expect them to be able to wait until the next one.
the local authorities are happy to provide water for the dead but not the living
The dead don't tend to suffer from coronaviruses.
The pubs in towns bordering Leicester are going to be very busy this coming crazy Saturday
I think the Leicester roads may be rather busy over the next ~12 hours, having announced local local lockdown there, with Hancock having just said "We recommend to people in Leicester, stay at home as much as you can, and we recommend against all but essential travel to, from and within Leicester." Unless of course they are doing the logical thing behind the scenes, without announcing that, they have in fact blocked every road out of the hotspot.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371
No-one is stopping me going out and cycling or walking huge distances either, not even over the borders
No one is stopping you bringing the correct amount of water with you either? And if water is not readily available when you are out and about then plan your trip accordingly.
The water isn’t a problem and using a tap with aseptic technique isn’t rocket science either.
It's not..but getting people to adhere to it probably is. You only need 1 clown to stick his mouth round the tap and you have an issue. It's surely not up for debate that leaving public water taps off is probably a sensible measure??
Just how are people supposed to know toilets are close and taps not working and plan according? That's why people were complaining about shit earlier, because people literally got caught short by an unexpected closure - telepathy?
You only need one clown to so many things to spread the virus but people don't stick their mouths around taps at public tolets, they just don't, people here are civilised, I assume they are where you live too.
There are plenty of potential vectors out there, cashpoint machines, lift buttons, traffic light buttons, supermarket trolleys, door handles, library books and videos, goods in shops, petrol pump pistols - just to mention a few I've been aware of whilst "protecting myslef and others"... why discriminate against a tap which provides the most vital thing to human life?
Just how are people supposed to know toilets are close and taps not working and plan according
In the UK you'd need to be pretty unaware to not realise that public toilets aren't open. They've been closed uk wide for months..
people don’t stick their mouths around taps at public tolets
I have no idea if they do or not i wouldn't consider drinking out a tap from a public toilet regardless of the situation, but it's not too much of a stretch to think if you really needed a drink and didn't have a cup you'd just drink directly from tap.
Either way, I stand by my point, if you run out of water you are badly organised.
Just how are people supposed to know toilets are close and taps not working and plan according?
Just taking a wild punt here, but how about checking the local district council website. The local one to me has regular updates. Crazy idea I know, but why not give it a whirl.
There's actually an app for it
My mum has bladder problems & it's been a big issue for her, but public toilets have been a problem for years
If this 'potential' becomes reality, we'll be prepared - won't we?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704
I live what looks like being 5 or 6 miles outside where I think the line will be drawn around Leicester.
All the rural and satellite town pubs are planning to open on 4th July. Does anyone want to have a guess what is going to happen next?
Unless there are police on every road out if the city it isn't going to work. Sure, restaurants could cancel all bookings with a Leicester dial code on the contact numbers, but most people leave a mobile number nowadays. They could ring all their bookings with a mobile number, but what % will just lie?
Remember back in the halcyon days of Feb when a handful of cases countrywide were being tracked? Can't do that now, so we are relying on the 'great' british public are we? Welcome to second spike Britain everyone.
Was wondering how this would work. I live on the outskirts of Derby (about 100m outside the City Boundary in terms of councils) which would be where I would imagine the line would be drawn if Derby were to see a spike. So I can move freely but people 100m away wouldn't be able to.
It is the only way to deal with hotspots. Which is why you need fast accurate reporting of where the issues are, so you can lock down as small an area as possible as quickly as possible.
I don't see how the police have the resources to control it, especially a city the size of Leicester. I suspect it will need more boots on the ground from the Forces. Other countries have had to do that.
Fair play to Piers Morgan again this morning, appealing to the people of Leicester to do the right thing, follow the instructions and stop the virus spreading.
See California and Florida for post Pub news...
Worrying times ahead...
Was wondering how this would work. I live on the outskirts of Derby (about 100m outside the City Boundary in terms of councils) which would be where I would imagine the line would be drawn if Derby were to see a spike. So I can move freely but people 100m away wouldn’t be able to.
It would need a properly resourced police force and a joined up strategy between them, the government and the armed forces.
So no chance, then.
Kryton, you seem to go looking for stuff to worry about at times. The states is a complete bit of a mess, the whole country is too big, too diverse and too entrenched in nonsense to have any kind of methodical approach to this kind of thing.
Better to have a look at the countries around us for examples of progression out of this, yes there will be hotspots, but other countries are managing them too. Scots and NI governments seem to be managing not too badly either.
Scots and NI governments seem to be managing not too badly either.
Only By luck of cases being low when ukgov announced lock down. I don't believe for 1 minute Scotland would have dared to lock down so early relative had the boot been on the other foot.
Only By luck of cases being low when ukgov announced lock down. I don’t believe for 1 minute Scotland would have dared to lock down so early relative had the boot been on the other foot.
We'll never know tbh, I think NS must cast an envious eye towards the likes of NZ, where the boss actually has some proper powers, and can act in the best interests of her nation, without a shower of buffoons diluting the message every day.
You only have to look at the divergance of numbers to see the difference the message has made up here, we were on a similar trend to England at one point...
Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour 😉
But yes . Jacinda Arderne . That's how it's done. Knew we should not have come back from NZ 🙂
Only By luck of cases being low when ukgov announced lock down. I don’t believe for 1 minute Scotland would have dared to lock down so early relative had the boot been on the other foot.
Take the example of Schools… Scotland and NI announced their closures and England followed. There are other examples, including closing building sites. If Scotland and NI hadn’t moved, the UK measures may well have been introduced even later, as Cummings dragged his heals.
Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour
IIRC at the height of this, and for a fair few weeks after, our daily deaths were fairly reflective of Englands, in terms of population, ie not far off 1/10th of their number?.
A thought just occurred to me. This focus on local outbreaks and local lockdowns has a big advantage for Joris.
It is likely to obscure an objective view of what such upsurges mean in a national sense (I.e. a clear second spike when viewed nationally). Blaming individual areas or cities takes the heat off of the incompetents at the top.
And there is already a nasty racial element being brought into 'conversation' around Leicester as a city being first into 'naughty boy' lockdown.
Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour 😉
To be fair, its not unusual to have numbers magnitudes lower than England.
England has the bestymost numbers ever! for a developed nation.
Every other country is looking at our successes. Must be true, Boris said so.
Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour
IIRC at the height of this, and for a fair few weeks after, our daily deaths were fairly reflective of Englands, in terms of population, ie not far off 1/10th of their number?.
Quite. Scotland's figure's have been largely on a par with the UK average. A little better than England, worse than Wales and NI. Also up there with the worst of Europe, too (Somewhere around Spain and Belgium IIRC).
On a facts and figures front, in a slightly worrying trend it seems the daily death rate in the UK has stuck solid at around 130/day for about two weeks now.
On a facts and figures front, in a slightly worrying trend it seems the daily death rate in the UK has stuck solid at around 130/day for about two weeks now.
From https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/deaths
Latest 7 day average from 26 June - 117
7 day average from 2 weeks ago, 12 June - 164
And there is already a nasty racial element being brought into ‘conversation’ around Leicester as a city being first into ‘naughty boy’ lockdown
Knowing the apparently affected areas of Leicester through work, and the areas of Derby that were affected most when it was a hotspot, there are clearly social/cultural/demographic aspects that may be factors - as in the discussion about BAME death rates generally. I've not yet seen any "nasty racial" elements being bandied around though?
And there is already a nasty racial element being brought into ‘conversation’ around Leicester as a city being first into ‘naughty boy’ lockdown.
There is indeed a rather unpleasant racial undercurrent to this, from the usual 'blame the immigrants and brown people' idiots
It's a bit more complicated than that though. The demographics are that if you live in a poorer area, for all manner of reasons, you're far more likely to be infected. So we now have the case where, if there are to be more localised lockdowns, then they are pretty certain to be in poorer areas with large BAME populations, whereas leafier, whiter, middle-class areas will be unaffected.
I can't see any potential problems there, can you?
Was I being overly cynical to check who the MPs / voting preferences of Leicester as the first thing I did when I heard it was being locked down again? (Labour btw)
I haven't seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else - is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?
I can't help but think (whether it's true or not) that someone in the government has decided that they've got to show they're determined to stop Covid, and asked for a list of places that had higher levels, and then just picked the least tory one of them?
A bit like Alderaan?
I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?
the government are not sharing the data
Leicester council were complaining that even tough Hancock said it was a hotspot 2 weeks ago the government wouldnt share with the LA which areas in particular were most effected
Theres a lot of centralised control freakery from government
From https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/deaths
Latest 7 day average from 26 June – 117
7 day average from 2 weeks ago, 12 June – 164
Hmm.
The Worldometers data I scraped looks slightly different. C'est la vie. Last two weeks of rolling averages I get are:
155 [15 Jun]
146
144
140
132
133
130
137
133
135
136
132
131 [27th Jun]
I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?
Quite widely reported yesterday that Leicester accounts for 10% of infections in England in the last couple of weeks. For a city of around 330,000 people, that's significant.
I don't doubt that those numbers are serious enough to warrant a more stringent lockdown. I do wonder if it hasn't helped Boris look more decisive and "in charge" though to some of his wavering supporters.
I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?
The official published stats are for confirmed cases, and there is a lag so don't show the current position - I believe this is based on 'from the ground' figures on both suspected and newly-confirmed cases only, which show a significant spike.
FWIW, the measures they've taken seem proportionate and realistic. We'll see if they work, and how quickly. And whether people looking forward to a beer in Leicester on Saturday just head off to Derby.
What was interesting was Hancock talking about how they'd already shut some factories and schools where there was evidence of spread. And that they'd closed one in Keighley, near me, at some other point, which came as a bit of a surprise...
A bit like Alderaan?
More like Jedha in Rogue One really.
And that they’d closed one in Keighley, near me, at some other point, which came as a bit of a surprise…
the Keighey thing was a hancockup
https://twitter.com/bradfordmdc/status/1277884089740206081
Idiot!
Interesting that disproportionate number of children infected in leicester too
I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?
From BBC report,
'Mr Hancock said Leicester's seven-day infection rate of 135 cases per 100,000 people was "three times higher than the next highest city" and admissions to hospital were between six and 10 per day - compared to about one a day at other trusts.
He said "targeted action" at factories, workplaces and schools over the past 10 days had not worked, meaning stronger measures were needed.
"We've been taking this highly localised approach but unfortunately that targeted action wasn't working in Leicester and that's why we have taken this much broader measure," he said.'
Hmm.
The Worldometers data I scraped looks slightly different. C’est la vie. Last two weeks of rolling averages I get are:
That got me curious so I did a bit of comparison - Worldometer reports 280 deaths for 23rd June, UK Gov has 171 which is also the number given in the Twitter source linked to from Worldometer's UK update for 23rd June.
Worldometer error in your favour.
Collect £100.
This is the first time I've posted on this thread, having read most of it.
I'm just inside the red zone, by about half a mile ish. I'll comply with the new rules, like I have all the way through but I'm utterly dejected with it to be honest. I know there are far more people worse off than me but I've been sat at my desk all morning not being able to work thinking about being able to do very little again 🙁
What I can't work out, is with our 'world class' track and trace system, is why a smaller area hasn't been identified earlier and locked down in a similar way. They've been talking about the Leicester issue for 11 days and numbers going back nearly a month!
Slight rant over, sorry!
Sorry to hear that Sam, chin up buddy.
Thanks Greg, first Lakes trip since it all kicked off was supposed to be on the 12th, that won't be happening now. And accommodation in the weeks after looks non existent.
[DomCum]Just use your common sense and do it, if you've not been exposed to a potential infection source for a week beforehand you're very unlikley to have the virus. Unless you're one of the little people, in which case stay at home, prole[/DomCum]
Having re-read that, it's actaully more sensible than what Dom ****ings did...
Sorry to hear you're caught up in this.
Out of interest, what's your experience and views as to why Leicester has had this problem?
I’ve not yet seen any “nasty racial” elements being bandied around though?
Chats between colleagues who have been in the office and one or two 'nudge-nudge' Facebook posts. Nothing overt, obvs.
@MoreCashThanDash to be honest I don't know, I think you may have touched on some of the reasons on the previous page which would make sense.
@dannyh would probably put it much better than me, he only lives 5 ish miles away from me. fortunately for him out side the red zone so he'll still be enjoying tomorrow nights bike ride!
Quite. Scotland’s figure’s have been largely on a par with the UK average. A little better than England, worse than Wales and NI. Also up there with the worst of Europe, too (Somewhere around Spain and Belgium IIRC).
According to the govt:
England 287 cases/100,000 people
NI 259
Scotland 291
Wales 501
IIRC at the height of this, and for a fair few weeks after, our daily deaths were fairly reflective of Englands, in terms of population, ie not far off 1/10th of their number
Yes normalised data wise.
But lower absolute number coupled with a more sparse populous stacked the odds in our favour.
Can’t book for august 1st yet Colin, only the next 2 weeks is available on a rolling basis, you’ll need to wait til around the end of July.
Yeah. I saw that. Can't really plan much on that basis. Still, by August we might even be allowed to see MiL in the nursing home.
Mr monk - workdometers data always has outliers that make no sense. That 280 deaths on the 23 June skews the figures. Look on the data feed under the graph for 23 Jun and it explains 100+ extra old deaths included that day.
Use the gov.uk Covid tracker for better data. It also shows positive tests by specimen data, revealing the actual daily cases at 200 ish, rather than the 1000+ reported in the figures, which includes test results of specimens as far back as March!
@dannyh would probably put it much better than me, he only lives 5 ish miles away from me. fortunately for him out side the red zone so he’ll still be enjoying tomorrow nights bike ride!
What Sam means is I frequently have bouts of verbal diarrhoea.
Reasons for Leicester being a hotspot right now?
To be honest, I'm not sure (but how could I be).
I would put forward a few theories, but that is all they are:
Tight knit communities within the city. I would suspect the proportion of households with 3-4 generations under the same roof is as high as anywhere in the country.
Bridgen (I used to spit on the ground at the mention of that name, but it is unhygienic) may have a point about dodgy knock off garment factories. If you are employed by a dodgy employer they aren't going to give a shit about safety.
Houses in Multiple Occupancy are prevalent in the city. Possibly linked to iffy employers.
Not masses of outdoor space in the surrounding areas so there are major daytripper hotspots just outside Leicester.
See, told you he'd have better ideas than me 🙂
See, told you he’d have better ideas than me
It doesn't make them right, though!
FWIW I reckon there will be a significant number of nobheads who think "**** it, I'm off for a pint" over the weekend and drive out into surrounding villages and towns.
Leicester is 600,000 give or take. If 1% are nobheads then that is 6,000 nobheads potentially breaking the rules and heading in my direction!
Might as well get a pint in while out testing your eyesight.
this is what leicester council were complaining about
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1277960119611871234
What's pillar 2 then? Going by the pillar 2 data, Leicester isn't so much in a 2nd wave, but still in a huge 1st wave.
That 280 thing in the worldometer data was when the govt slipped another 100 deaths back into the "historic" figures rather than the daily value. I don't know where the extra 100 deaths came from but they were distributed over the past several months whereas the daily values are usually mostly within the past few days.
Pillar 1 carried out in PHE labs and should be hospital patients & staff
Pillar 2 in the privatecentres set up in MK, including machines theyve taken from universities (we kinda want ours back now) and should be public, key workers & families
The government arent explaining what is done where on who
making it very hard for Local authorities to fiure out where their problems are
tho Cummings mates at Palatir & Faculty are given this data to model the pandemic, but its not shared with LAs, GPs, even local MPs
Thanks Kimbers.
That 280 thing in the worldometer data was when the govt slipped another 100 deaths back into the “historic” figures rather than the daily value.
thanks captain, that explains all
worldometers have previously done periodic cleanups after these bonus drops have happened
And, what NBITF said, that data for Leicester looks problematic. Of course in typical Boris Administration style, we essentially don't have the faintest idea of what any given person is supposed to do because of the "local lockdown" - apart from not get their hair cut and not send the kids to school. Everyone will be straight to a pub outside the city limits come Saturday.
How on earth can local responses be properly planned and explained to the public (so that they accept them) locally (remember, no national daily briefing now) if kept only in the centralised system?!?