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Just watching the footage from Liverpool, when the outcome of blokes kicking a ball around is more important than a pandemic, in a city more badly hit than most, what's the point.
Worth considering getting a sats monitoring machine (50 quidish).
Yep, I got one back in March as part of my panic buying. Hopefully have no use for it.
Telegraph put a little vid together about beaches.
You don’t need to shut beaches just organise it (or privatise it to your buddies 😉 don’t just ignore it.
Course if you want to blame ‘the people‘ for not complying later on just carry on from the safety of your Warminster bunker.
Sorry about the earlier rant, it isn’t helpful. I just got overwhelmed with anger for the first time.
I see the 14 day quarantine system has been replaced with a traffic light system for travellers which will be implemented from Monday.
This is about the fourth time that we have been convinced that large gatherings will cause death and destruction a few weeks later (VE Day, nearly 8 weeks ago; the first time people flocked to beaches, over a month ago; the protests, a month ago) - can we pick this one as the last one, and if nothing bad happens, agree that it's now ok?
That would be far too sensible. 🤣
My wife has been in hospital all week (the third time in since lockdown started). Tested for covid each time and negative.
Today a Dr told her that they think her illness could be a result of a covid infection even though her tests each time were negative. He said “what we are starting to find out is that covid is effecting people in numerous different ways. You could be tested a hundred times and the result be negative but you may still have or have had covid.”
The whole testing things is a can or worms. People who've tested positive for the antigen, are testing negative for antibodies and more. It sounds like your wife could maybe have some sort of long-haul covid-19, I posted links to a couple of FB groups for long-haulers towards the end of the other thread if you're interested in looking into it:
Can we pick this one as the last one, and if nothing bad happens, agree that it’s now ok?
We could but that doesn't mean there won't be a winner from future events. Past ones being Cheltenham. Looking at what's happening in Florida they question would now seem to be how far is the UK behind the US. I'm going for things going backwards late July / early August. With Funtime Boris (Playtime Fontayne springs to mind) we seem to have a man who hasn't worked out you don't bring tiddlywinks to a gunfight.
if nothing bad happens
People are dying.
Are they dying because they went to the beach?
There is very low risk from outdoor events. This has been clear for a long time. This includes being on a beach or an outdoor protest, unless you get really up close and personal with a lot of people for a substantial time. At Cheltenham, if there was an issue it probably had more to do with people shouting in each others' faces in packed pubs and beer tents than watching the races per se. Same with big football matches. One of the reasons cited for not cancelling public attendance at sporting events early was that people would watch them in pubs which might be as bad or worse.
My advice would be to party on, in the open air, with a bit of space.
The problem with the beach/park/open-air party activities is that it sets an expectation and an example. All that's happening is it's reinforcing a message that things can get back to normal - including indoor stuff. Maybe this was always inevitable.
The evidence is lacking for direct attribution of spreading to outdoor events… but that’s a lack of data not evidence of no risk. Tracing contacts in offices, schools, homes, etc is possible in a way that mapping contact with people assembling in the streets, or on the beach, is not. When European countries shut beaches earlier in the year they did so for a reason, spread was still taking place even though inside gatherings had been stopped. I strongly suspect that USA states not shutting beaches are learning a hard lesson for us.
Anyway, I was looking at European countries for second spikes, as they are still a few weeks ahead of us in actions. What’s happening in…
Iceland, Croatia, Slovakia, Bulgaria?
Someone who can interpret data should have a look.
My advice would be to party on, in the open air, with a bit of space.
If people were just exercising and socially distanced it might be fine but it's buying, dumping, jumping, shouting, pushing, crapping...
Rights and responsibilities are one thing but we just don't seem to be able to grasp at the moment.
I don't see big gatherings being somewhere that will lead to a direct explosion more just lighting the fuse on flare up elsewhere. Before anything that had happened would mostly just get stamped out by isolation / lower mobility. Now we have increased mobility and mixing opportunities.
People are dying.
Without trying to sound too flippant, people are always dying. This following comment may seem a little harsh and morbid, but IMHO, the Covid-19 epidemic has shown how out of touch we are with the realities of life and death. On average, 1,400 people die a day in the UK. The number of deaths in the UK that mention Covid-19 was 184 yesterday - that is fairly high, but the "Excess Deaths" value now is around zero or negative, so if anything, less people are now dying than average for this time of year.
Also, the overwhelming majority of people who die from this disease are already very old and infirm. 90% of fatalities were for the over-65 age group, and nearly 50% were for the over 85 age group. 91% had a co-morbidity, with the most common being dementia and Alzheimers. To me, this shows that in the huge majority of cases, this disease is what tips someone already near the end of their life, over the edge.
No, I don't think that going to the beach is killing anyone (at least, no more than it ever has, when many adults commonly carry diseases that could kill an elderly and infirm person). I do think that lockdown is harming families, children in particular, and ruining the mental and social health of the population (specifically here in Wales).
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/hg8ae0/fridays_deaths_by_actual_day_chart_in_hospital/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26 (see June 23rd)
I love going to the beach. Avoiding packed beaches isn’t the huge sacrifice you appear to suggest it is. Yes, there are serious negative effects of social distancing of all forms, but not having mass gatherings doesn’t look like it’s the top of the list really. I’d rather we limited those and concentrated on getting this virus under control enough for people to be able to see doctors, teachers and at risk family members and friends face to face without putting them at risk.
Avoiding packed beaches isn’t the huge sacrifice you appear to suggest it is.
That's not what I said - I said it is probably harmless. People have already sacrificed their jobs, savings, houses, quality of life, and an entire summer. I just can't get outraged over going to the beach, especially when there isn't much else to do. Lucky for you if you live somewhere you can go into the woods on your bike and be by yourself.
I said it is probably harmless.
And if you are wrong?
People have already sacrificed their jobs, savings, houses, quality of life, and an entire summer.
And those people, who have been made to sacrifice so much to keep socially distant and save lives… what do you think they make of people crowded onto beaches?
We have already had huge gatherings that happened weeks ago, with no apparent ill effects. If I am wrong, then there is a disease on the loose so terrible we may as well do what we want anyway before we all die. I don't think that's the case though - as I pointed out in my first comment on this page, we can already build a good picture of the risks of this disease from the data we have.
As for those people you describe - I hope they are able to analyze the risks and rewards for themselves, and act accordingly. I hope those people also hold their government accountable for any damage to their lives they see as being excessive. Personally, I think the risks of this disease have become overblown, and that the lockdown started causing excessive harm a while ago. As I am in Wales, I am personally furious at the Welsh Assembly Government, which is (IMHO) seriously holding back the state of lockdown in Wales even further, to attempt political point scoring.
Lucky for you if you live somewhere you can go into the woods on your bike and be by yourself.
To make a comparison this assumes that either
1. The beaches are packed with people who are trying to be ‘alone‘
or
2. The beaches are actually packed by locals, not people who could’ve just easily have driven to be somewhere ‘alone’ in the woods. So lucky for these locals, eh?
And those people, who have been made to sacrifice so much to keep socially distant and save lives… what do you think they make of people crowded onto beaches?
And continue to make sacrifices. For a sustainable reopening of businesses and lives we only really had one chance to get it right? Rebuilding once is hard. Rebuilding again next year because of a second wave would prove impossible for most. Such a scenario would be a once-in-a-lifetime boost to the lenders, property-grabbers and crisis-vultures tho...
No, I'm saying that people have sat indoors for months, and (rightly) need to get outside. It's nice if you live somewhere where it's easy to do so by yourself, but for the people living around the South Coast, that's not so easy. Your options are probably either a packed beach, or a long drive. I wouldn't be surprised if it was mostly locals, it's probably only a few thousand people on the beach.
We have already had huge gatherings that happened weeks ago, with no apparent ill effects
I'm pretty sure there was a small upturn in cases/deaths that TiRed(?) suggested were suggestive of being linked to VE Day and bank holiday shenanigans. Not a huge spike, but more deaths, and a delay in the previous downward decline in numbers, and hence a delay in me being able to hug my parents again.
For a sustainable reopening of businesses and lives we only really had one chance to get it right?
I don't follow this argument. The point of lockdown was to flatten the peak - we don't have any way to stop people dying of the disease, unless you think that lockdown should continue indefinitely until we do. The other approach I hear much-applauded is the short, sharp lockdown followed by intensive track and trace. I have yet to see a country where that is proving effective either. Even New Zealand is showing how tough that is to implement while allowing any sort of normal amount of international travel.
I have a theory that Westminster is secretly continuing with the "herd immunity" approach, and taking a gamble that here in the UK, most people who are going to be affected, already have. Yes it's a gamble, but at this point, I don't see what else there is to do. It's not like any other country has clearly demonstrated a better approach.
It’s not like any other country has clearly demonstrated a better approach.
The numbers of infections, and the number of deaths tells me otherwise....
hence a delay in me being able to hug my parents again.
Hug your dang parents! Depending where you are, and your circumstances, it's even legal.
The numbers of infections, and the number of deaths tells me otherwise….
Pick a country, and we'll follow it over the next few weeks. I bet you choose Germany or New Zealand.
I have a theory that Westminster is secretly continuing with the “herd immunity” approach,
Captain Obvious, I presume? 🧐
The nudge and pretend admonishment approach could be genius if it was fooling the even remotely perceptive
It’s not like any other country has clearly demonstrated a better approach.
#britainbestatcovid
I don’t follow this argument. The point of lockdown was to flatten the peak – we don’t have any way to stop people dying of the disease, unless you think that lockdown should continue indefinitely until we do
That’s a very extreme/polarised/binary response to a straw-man that you seem to have constructed from my words.
Again:
For a sustainable reopening of businesses and lives we only really had one chance to get it right?
That doesn’t say or even hint at ‘indefinite’ lockdown. Neither my thoughts.
Captain Obvious, I presume? 🧐
Very good. I suppose you wouldn't be any more outraged if they bluntly stated herd immunity as their goal?
We do have the highest mortality rate, but very shortly followed by two countries that prevented anyone from leaving their houses for any reason (Spain and Italy). Just behind those two is Sweden, which has very minimal lockdown, and the good ol' USA, where you can still fly if you want, only has 40% less deaths per capita than we do. The link between lockdown conditions and eventual outcome is not clear.
That’s a very extreme/polarised/binary response to a straw-man that you seem to have constructed from my words.
If I mis-understood the final conclusion of your point of view, then tell me, what is a sustainable point at which business can re-open? If it's just "less cases", then what is your preferred value? At this point, we already have significantly less cases than the peak we were trying to flatten, so to me it seems that this point is as good as any to re-open. We have also been shut in our houses since March, and that situation is most definitely not sustainable.
The link between lockdown conditions and eventual outcome is not clear.
The link between timing of, and extent of, and success of, social distancing measures, and outcome, is very very clear.
then what is your preferred value?
Few enough to be able to track/trace/isolate new cases. What that number is, and what social distancing measures we keep, needs to be judged together with what measures are in place to track/trace/isolate. I’d make sure schools and workplaces can fully open safely before mass gatherings, inside it out, become the norm again, personally.
Would be interested in a source for that - it's not something I've been able to find. Anyway, I'm not arguing that lockdown shouldn't have happened, I'm arguing that it's time for it be over. Especially here in Wales.
We don’t have ‘lock down‘. We have restrictions on movement and gathering. These will change, but not fully go away, ‘till we have low enough infections levels and suitable track/trace/arrangements in place.
Few enough to be able to track/trace/isolate new cases.
I do understand the benefits of that approach, but I have my doubts that it can be practically implemented. I have been following the news in New Zealand, which despite having 7% of the UK's population, and apparently zero Covid cases for a while, is already having huge difficulties tracking and tracing.
We don’t have ‘lock down‘. We have restrictions on movement and gathering
At least in Wales, we can't go anywhere (AFAIK the law here is that you can't leave your house except for essential reasons, and then you are to "stay local"), or see almost anyone. Feels like a lockdown to me. Then again, IMHO the Welsh Assembly Government is turning Wales into clown country, where shops can re-open but children go to school for 3 hours a week.
T/T/I is a large task. Larger still if you have too many cases. Your alternative is…?
In general, I think you need to read more. Plenty of starters in this thread if you page back.
Pick a country, and we’ll follow it over the next few weeks. I bet you choose Germany or New Zealand
Given that so far we have done worse than pretty much every other country on earth when it comes to containing the spread of the virus, why do you seem to think the next few months will be any different..
But since you ask...let's pick Spain and Italy, 2 countries hard hit by the virus, but still less deaths than the UK despite having less time to prepare first time round. I'll be prepared to bet that any second spike in uk will be worse..
Your alternative is…?
There isn't one, and we knew that at the start. The goal was to flatten the peak, to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, and that is all we can still do.
You think it’s “job done”?
let’s pick Spain and Italy, 2 countries hard hit by the virus, but still less deaths than the UK
Italy, with the lowest per capita death rate of the three countries in question, is still 90% that of the UK. That's pretty close, and I'm not sure what that shows. It will be interesting to see if they do have a second peak, and how it compares to any in the UK.
You think it’s “job done”?
Yes, the initial goal of lockdown has been accomplished. It's clear that Boris is lifting it as fast as he can.
Iceland, Croatia, Slovakia, Bulgaria?
Apparently all up. Bulgaria particularly so (higher than first peak). Take a look here.
Number of NHS deaths continue to decline...
https://www.scribd.com/document/467148483/NHS-Hospital-Deaths
Number of new cases continue to decline...
https://www.scribd.com/document/467148549/Rates-by-Lower-Tier
Yes, the initial goal of lockdown has been accomplished. It’s clear that Boris is lifting it as fast as he
canwants to.
Just to make this point again...
T/T/I is a large task. Larger still if you have too many cases.
As I said above, New Zealand had pretty much the perfect starting point for this (small population, zero cases, very controlled borders), and is already struggling. It's a bit more than a "large task", IMHO it's not feasible, especially in a country with a population many times larger.
It is difficult, and people will be missed. But, not doing it means thousands of deaths or more stringent social distancing measures for a good while to come. Neither are preferable, in my opinion. NZ is avoiding both. We seem to think we can do T/T/I with higher numbers, by paying a private company to employee more people in a centralised system, but I doubt it scales that well in reality. By getting to fewer cases, and ramping up more localised systems, and maybe mobile apps on top of those, we could have a chance… we’re choosing to make the difficult even more difficult.
Is the size of the population really the issue? Surely its the moron ratio, at which we are 'World Class'.
T&T won't work if people are too entitled / stupid to follow advice.
As I said above, New Zealand had pretty much the perfect starting point for this (small population, zero cases, very controlled borders), and is already struggling.
Is it though? In last 24 hrs they had 2 confirmed cases. That sounds like it's well under control to me.
Depending where you are, and your circumstances, it’s even legal.
Nope, it's still illegal. If only one of them had died of the virus, then at least I could have hugged the survivor by now 😠
Pretty much every government in the world would love to be struggling like New Zealand right now.
T&T won’t work if people are too entitled / stupid to follow advice.
Maybe they'd be more prepared to follow advice if the people giving the advice weren't a bunch of lying barstewards!
At least in Wales, we can’t go anywhere (AFAIK the law here is that you can’t leave your house except for essential reasons, and then you are to “stay local”), or see almost anyone. Feels like a lockdown to me.
No, lockdown is when you can't leave your house, as happened in other countries.
Then again, IMHO the Welsh Assembly Government is turning Wales into clown country, where shops can re-open but children go to school for 3 hours a week.
This isn't inconsistent. The point is you cannot be too close to people. So you can open shops as long as people don't get close to each other (which is happening, or should be - hence queues and so on); and you can go to school as long as you don't get close to other kids. This is why they can only have few kids in at a time.
It does make sense. It's fascinating to see how people's emotions cloud their viewpoint. They want to be allowed to travel around, and they look at England and think that the English approach must be right and Wales must be wrong. But what if it's the other way round? After all, English policy is being led by an idiot.
Acting like “it’s over” will kill thousands… it is now very difficult for us to follow the path NZ is on, but we absolutely should be trying… the cost to the economy and in lives is huge if we do not. With current measures in place, we’re looking at another 30000 deaths. If we go ahead with further lifting of restrictions in July, with T/T/I and the contract tracing app both not expected to be useful ‘till the autumn, we’ll be lucky for it to only be another 30000 deaths. I hope we are lucky. I wish we had a government that got things done, rather than one which wastes money on its friends‘ schemes and just hopes for the best.
@morecashthandash I'm truly sorry for your loss. The effects of this disease and the lockdown have been heartbreaking. A friend of ours had her first baby, and their grandparent died before they could ever meet.
you can go to school as long as you don’t get close to other kids. This is why they can only have few kids in at a time.
The Welsh Assembly certainly is forging its own path here, recently ignoring a letter signed by hundreds of doctors, asking for the evidence to be examined with a view to scrapping social distancing in schools. I'm personally very glad our nursery, which can finally re-open, will be maintaining as normal an environment as possible.
I’m truly sorry for your loss. The effects of this disease and the lockdown have been heartbreaking.
You've completely misread or misunderstood what I wrote, and I get the feeling you've done the same with government advice - as have many others, as it hasn't exactly been clear.
You’ve completely misread...
So I did. I read it that they both had died. In that case, go and hug them! The story I related is still relevant. My friend's grandmother died during lockdown before she could ever meet her new great-granddaughter, and IMHO that is un-necessarily heartbreaking.
I think I have a reasonably good understanding of the government guidelines (certainly here in Wales, at least). I just think they are misguided.
Just to poke @molgrips one more time - the "what if the others are wrong" argument doesn't really work. What if Westminster have it right? Then they could look at Wales and say "Why are they driving themselves crazy in isolation, and denying themselves family time and childcare, when it's no worse over here? They must be lead by an idiot!"
Comparing the responses of devolved governments is interesting & throws up discrepancies, but a blanket approach would be wrong anyway
Wales has higher obesity rate than England & NHS in have different challenges, resources etc.
Obesity, poverty etc all vary between regions & are important comorbidities with virus.
I'd also say even along the south coast of Wales you have much easier access to outdoor activities than in manu parts of england
Two days in a row of zero deaths in Scotland, only 15 new cases, cautious optimism abound, although I worry about the masses heading north when the tourist trade opens up soon.
Fingers crossed.
So whats the betting on a Leicester lockdown?
Longer odds than you would have got at the start of their prem winning footie season.
Nothing to say other than thanks to TiRed and the other science contributers
And I want to be post 14000!
Edit: beaten by Frank.... garrrh
So whats the betting on a Leicester lockdown?
From the Times:
The government is preparing to impose the first local lockdown within days following a surge in coronavirus cases in Leicester, according to senior government sources.
Never learn, will they.
Never learn, will they
The management of this pandemic in the uk is bordering on negligence now..
As you say, have they learned absolutely nothing about getting on top of any outbreaks quickly..
They have no chance of having successful "local lockdowns" now anyway. People will just leave the city to go and stay with friends and families in lower risk rural areas, if they can. You know, to have emergency child care close at hand... to do what is instinctively the best thing for their family. I don't think the government will even try... it'll just be a matter of concentrating trace/trace/isolate measures on areas with outbreaks... but even then... if you think you or your wife have it, or have been in contact with a work mate who has... do you cooperate with T/T/I measures and stay at home... or do a runner? One of the mugs who follow the rules out of civic duty, or a smart maverick who uses their common sense to do what they think is best?
The management of this pandemic in the uk is bordering on negligence now..
As you say, have they learned absolutely nothing about getting on top of any outbreaks quickly..
We'll see what, if anything, they have up their sleeves in the next two weeks. This is the crux moment for test and trace locally. They've had four months to prepare for it. Let's find out if they've done their homework.
Never learn, will they
The thing is, it's not just the politicians.
We as a society are independent minded, for years we've not felt (or been encouraged towards) a 'we' for the greater good. We're cutting ourselves off from from our friends, colleagues and allies across the channel. Inequality grows - and many of us don't care.
We're selfish.
So to now expect that we as citizens can now put others first is a tall ask - and we're not even being asked that well.
Edit: we also don't have that societal respect for rule of law, as so many other European nations do...
We’re selfish.
A bit pessimistic… most Brits have made sacrifices this year, knowing that there is little risk to themselves but that we all had to make changes to protect others. However, the government applauding selfish behaviour (Cummings) has undermined this immeasurably when it comes to making sacrifices over the rest of this year. What politicians say and do is key here, blaming the public is misdirection, I feel.
There is a localised hotspot In the West Midlands focused on Leicester and Daventry. I’m not convinced about local lockdown. But monitoring closely and concentration of TTI resources seems reasonable.
Off to look at the data more closely.
Off to look at the data more closely
You might want to check your compass too!!! 😁😁😁
There is a localised hotspot In the West Midlands focused on Leicester and Daventry
East Midlands! How can I trust any of your expert knowledge now🤦♂️
The vast majority of the population have done the "right thing", but that majority has been worn away in recent weeks. Strava suggests I'm the last person still doing solo rides.
The Leicester thing is interesting. Reports suggest the positive tests are in the poorer, more densely populated part of the city, which have higher BAME population, and I'm going out on a limb, a higher population in more physical close contact factory work.
Two weeks ago I mentioned seeing a group of 12 club riders all totally ignoring social distancing at a cafe. The cafe is a popular run for clubs out if Leicester. What I didn't mention was that the club exists to promote cycling among the BAME community. This was the week the report into higher BAME deaths was in the news.
Strava suggests I’m the last person still doing solo rides.
No you aren't...
it's worrying if it's spiking now, doesn't bode well for next week when the pubs, restaurants and hair dressers kick off. Seems to be what's caused the resurgence in the US.
There is a localised hotspot In the West Midlands focused on Leicester and Daventry.
Is that close to Durdle door? Aren’t we expecting a spike from there soon. 😉
East :p
The Leicester thing is interesting. Reports suggest the positive tests are in the poorer, more densely populated part of the city, which have higher BAME population, and I’m going out on a limb, a higher population in more physical close contact factory work.
Apparently 2 outbreaks there associated with meat processing factories
Which seem to be very common places for outbreaks
Jesus, put a safety net around Melton Mowbray now!!
matt_outandabout
SubscriberWe’re selfish.
On the whole, aye. But we can be led or inspired or bullied or guilted into acting in a less selfish way. Or in this case, we could also be helped to understand that what seems selfish today is self-harm next week.
But instead we've been led into acting in more selfish ways, and the government has decided to act in ways that have made people who followed the rules feel stupid and ignored and disrespected.
Jesus, put a safety net around Melton Mowbray now!!
Good point. This pandemic has just got serious!