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n0b0dy0ftheg0at
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Losing taste or smell is now officially a reason to isolate in UK.
This has been discussed for many weeks, I wonder why it wasn't acknowledged as a symptom until now?
Possible confusion with streaming cold (no cough/temperature) which might also give those symptoms? Colds being deemed a bit less prevalent now?
Tad concerned as I get hayfever each year from mid June to early July which is usually bad enough to cause loss of smell/taste...
This has been discussed for many weeks, I wonder why it wasn’t acknowledged as a symptom until now?
What medical Twitter was saying this afternoon.
It was acknowledged as a symptom, just not added to the list of “if you have these symptoms you must isolate”
The opinion of Prof JvT was that only a tiny number of cases would have lack of taste/smell without a cough/fever, so no point adding it to the isolation required list.
TiRed, I think in Ferguson being given the heave ho they are already subtly working at project "it was the scientist's fault." Vallance and Whitty might find themselves in a very isolated place soon if the recriminations begin.
I also want to get your opinion on whether you believe the virus is about to proliferate again? I don't see why it won't yet i see online so many businesses now making preparations for their grand opening. As a clinician I'm now trying to keep my mouth shut and just hoping for the best as any opposing POV will go down very badly. It fills me with dread to think about the potential negative outcomes for us all if it all just restarts again.
Restarts again? Again?! They haven’t waited for it to subside enough to enable successful containment of new occurrences, so it hasn’t stopped. They seem to have accepted, and expect us to accept, a high level of ongoing death and disruption compared to everywhere else (except USA, Russia & Brazil).
I agree with you Kelvin don't worry! But what's to be done? Also it may not happen. Right? Right?
Genuinely I also really worry about the effects on business. I worry people are simply going to come to accept the high death toll for the economy to survive. As a worker in the NHS with a relatively secure job I don't feel I can now argue much to the contrary.
I think a large chunk of the UK population will just accept just that… and in a few weeks time anyone complaining about deaths or serious illness in their own family will be labelled “snowflakes”… still furloughed workers as “scroungers”… and those still working at home referred to as “out of touch elites”… it’s coming.
^
It's already happening, it's come down from on high that when we return to work (some already have) that any complaints about working conditions will be frowned upon
I'm expecting it to grow again, but it won't be as quick or massive because lots of people have arranged their lives with much less contact regardless of any relaxation of the laws and lots of high contact businesses eg pubs and clubs will be closed for the foreseeable. I vaguely predict an increase in cases over the next week or so (not based on any specific modelling or calculation, just a hunch).
still furloughed workers as “scroungers”
This is happening. Several people I know have had WhatsApp/text argument or been to work Teams meeting where there's a jealousy over the fact that some people are being paid to sty at home, whilst others are working.
I also want to get your opinion on whether you believe the virus is about to proliferate again? I don’t see why it won’t
Pretty much how I see it, it might take longer to build due to ongoing behavioural changes but surely it still will?
It’s already happening, it’s come down from on high that when we return to work (some already have) that any complaints about working conditions will be frowned upon
First they came for the teachers, and no one complained, because they hate there own kids......🤣🤣🤣
And at the same moment that 1000s of foreign nurses are saving British life's the Home secretary is telling them they are not welcome anymore and they have to pay extra for the privilege of working here.
Anyone who voted Tory should be ashamed of the current situation.
I also want to get your opinion on whether you believe the virus is about to proliferate again? I don’t see why it won’t
thecaptain and I are in complete agreement here:
1) Do nothing - cases double every three days
2) Do lockdown - cases halve every eight-ten days
Anything in-between is possible. Where we might want to be is some happy half-way medium, where new cases are neither growing nor declining - endemic state (not due to lack of susceptibles) due to some control of contacts/transmission probability and more rapid treatment and test/tracing. In truth we won't go back to (1) for some time, maybe two years, due to human behavior.
Thanks for all the replies. I wonder how much more social mixing is required to make it get exponential again? Surely in urban areas not a whole lot due to intense multiplication of any effect?
Yes, we are probably at about R=0.8 (ballpark national figure) meaning that we don't have a lot of headroom for more social contact before it goes over 1.
On the positive side, being a bit over 1 isn't an instant disaster, it is possible that it will be somewhat self-policing if people draw their horns in a bit when they see the numbers going up. That's a risky strategy though and there may be a lot of collateral damage along the way. I don't claim any particular insights into the behavioural side, just guessing really. We are in a hole and need a bit of luck.
The opinion of Prof JvT was that only a tiny number of cases would have lack of taste/smell without a cough/fever, so no point adding it to the isolation required list.
Is this “30th February” van Tam? Not sure I’m ready to rely on much he says.
If I am honest, we are now at point where behavioural science and medical advances must be the priority. Models have served their purpose, which was to characterise the epidemic gravity and make some suggestions about intervention. We’ve done those. We know what effect they’ve had. Back to my day job of finding new treatments.
And thankful we are too!
Interesting one today. I haven’t flown since 11 March, and no change on the horizon. Contacted by BA today - Penlon are looking to recruit grounded pilots on a short term basis for the testing of their new Ventilators. The job has been done by F1 techs, but they are going back to their teams. It’s nice to feel wanted!
1) Do nothing – cases double every three days
2) Do lockdown – cases halve every eight-ten days
I'm just speculating and have no specific expertise, but it seems to me that the variation of R between individuals may be more important than the mean value of R.
In (1), say mean R was about 3, perhaps for 10 infected people maybe one infected only 1 other, two infected 2, four infected 3, two infected 4 and one infected 5. In (2) mean R is say, 0.8, but the 10 infected people are behaving differently - maybe six of them isolate effectively and infect nobody, three are moderately careful but each infect 1 other and the tenth person is reckless or uninformed and infects 5. Depending how each type responds to lockdown, the effect on R could be trivial or huge.
Welcome to the world of mixing patterns. And nowhere is it more important that sexually transmitted diseases. Think about it. Most chains will be two, may be three long. Some will be longer. And then you have the ultra promiscuous and commercial sex workers. Who will you target? Why does HIV Prep make sense?
For COVID19 it’s exactly the same. Who are the super spreaders? My son for one#. You will need to put 80% of your efforts against those 20%! Be it testing, tracing, treatment, vaccination or just plain eduction.
#no he’s not promiscuous - he searches passengers at LHR! Dozens a day. Close up. And their luggage.
Sorry if this has already been asked but - our numbers are only declining slowly despite far fewer social interactions. So is it possible that most of the cases are now in places where contact is unavoidable such as care homes?
Do we even have data on where and how the cases are still occurring?
our numbers are only declining slowly despite far fewer social interactions. So is it possible that most of the cases are now in places where contact is unavoidable such as care homes?
Healthcare settings/care homes are surely the only place where lots of strangers have been getting up close and personal with each other in recent weeks so it's a plausible hypothesis and you're not the first to think of it:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-know-everything-and-nothing-about-covid
Healthcare settings/care homes
and personal homes if there are community care/nursing needs.
Latest announcement about anyone over 5 being 'eligible' for a test presumably doesn't mean there'll be a testing station nearby or they'll actually get one. I'm eligible to win the ernie bonds. Complete load of nudgery.
Some immunity perspective from a preprint following reinfection dynamics of the other four circulating coronaviruses. Basically expect about six to twelve months immunity. And perhaps a little cross-reactivity. Ten patients and 20 patient-years of data.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20086439v1
And for some bad news, an outbreak on two mink farms hints that there may be other reservoirs if/when the virus becomes endemic.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.101493v1
And at the same moment that 1000s of foreign nurses are saving British life’s the Home secretary is telling them they are not welcome anymore and they have to pay extra for the privilege of working here.
Anyone who voted Tory should be ashamed of the current situation.
These are people who voted a self-serving liar into office in the hope he would enact their xenophobic/racist 'return to a golden age' fantasies.
They are incapable of feeling shame.
Thanks for that TiRed. I have been looking for experience from other corona viruses but not seen any (apart from the Russian Flu 1889 pandemic likely being the crossing point for one of our current 'only a cold' corona viruses - HCoV-OC43 - couldn't find any literature about reinfection with it though).
My mum swears blind that she had it at Christmas - we were at my brother's in northern France so she's smugly pointing to the BBC article that it was likely circulating there at the time. She then went to see my sister (where she basically stayed in bed for a week and was pretty poorly). I have been counter arguing that my sister would have been properly exposed then (and indeed felt mildly ill) so the fact my sister was diagnosed with COVID19 (and was much more ill) a couple of weeks ago makes it unlikely that either had an early instance. Short spans of immunity, however, would ruin my argument. I think, in the circumstances, I would prefer to be right...
And for some bad news, an outbreak on two mink farms hints that there may be other reservoirs if/when the virus becomes endemic.
There has also been reported cases in domestic cats (In Australia and China) which is more worrying.
On public understanding and reactions to logarithmic graphs…
Common cold coronaviruses – not actually harmful in the overwhelming majority of patients, so no need for vaccines which nearly always carry a very small risk of side-effects etc.
As I pointed out "economic reasons". Globally - Days/productivity loss is billions per year.
There is still hope for therapies which reduce the severity of the infection, but dialling it down to a sniffle seems very much out of reach.
But it is a sniffle for many... for others potentially life threatening and for others largely fatal regardless of current interventions.
Other than age and general frailty there seems very little joined up understanding of why a perfectly healthy 30yr old will die and a 50 yr old parent asymptomatic.
If we understood why then we might be well on the way to making it less than fatal.
Much as it seems truly random that seems unlikely and given the differences it seems to me like it may be several reasons rather than one. This is based on my experience modelling other things this points towards having some unknowns that effectively make different use cases.
Very simplistically we have a trigger (virus) and an outcome we are trying to avoid (death) but there are multiple pathways between them and the most successful interventions to avoid this outcome don't of necessity have to be the same.
ICU is by it's nature reactionary, they treat the symptoms but it's entirely possible/probable that earlier more specific interventions can prevent the disease getting to that point.
If we could incrementally identify those that can be protected or treated differently and the threat minimised we could be well on our way to a herd immunity that kills far fewer people.
Herd immunity if it requires a % of the population can be achieved by preventing infections in those for which there is an elevated risk that can't be managed.
You could say this is what the current planning is doing .. targeting school age kids but it is doing so in a very crude way without considering that they may not be ill and quite often asymptomatic but they will spread the virus regardless.
How does herd immunity work if natural immunity wanes after 6 months?
TiRed
By contrast, I deliberately chose to do something data-driven because I used to do that modelling, and assumed (rightly) that this is what they would all be doing. Rebasing epidemics and estimating log-slopes is not sexy, but is informative – basically I constructed epidemic percentile growth charts and compared UK. It was a grim comparison.
We seem to come back to British exceptionalism.
Forget for now anything more sophisticated than a semi-log graph at which point do we expect the virus to behave differently in the UK than Italy, Spain and France?
How does herd immunity work if natural immunity wanes after 6 months?
If you forgo international spread then the virus MAY simply die off of it's own accord.
It might not... but it will radically reduce infections whilst we continue to work on both a vaccine and better treatments that target specifics. We don't even know it's 6mo... it might be longer for a vastly reduced response?
Either way what I should probably have said more explicitly is we don't know near enough at the moment to be considering this.
My mum swears blind that she had it at Christmas
Well I spent 5 weeks through December and January with a constant cough. Went through all of us at work, one of my colleagues had brought it back as a present from one of our investigator meetings. I can't recall exactly where he'd been but we do a lot in Asia and China is now a 5 or 6 meetings a year destination for us. So after a few days in the company of 100 or so medics from a number of countries he came back coughing which he gave to the rest of us. All of us except the boss who is on immunosuppressants who was fine.
I'm sure hundreds of us can now come up with anecdotal stories of symptoms we could somehow link back to this but they are just anecdotes, nothing more. There are a million and one other things we could have had in our office far more likely than this.
TiRed
And for some bad news, an outbreak on two mink farms hints that there may be other reservoirs if/when the virus becomes endemic.
Much as that's disturbing as a reservoir what I don't understand is why (to paraphrase) this virus cannot be carried by non infected animate objects and certain magic inamimate objects.
If we contrast this to foot and mouth then people's wellies were disinfected .. tyres (in our community) pointed out to be part of a transmission vector.
All the evidence I've seen is that the virus can survive on metals, plastics etc. for "a few days" and "adsorbent materials" a day.
To illustrate: The RSPCA are saying you absolutely can't catch it from a dog or cat ... our local council are maintaining it cannot be caught from a news paper ... (and indeed targeting the vulnerable by having newspapers posted to every resident). The posties have also been told they must post the newspaper or hand in person... (mine is very apologetic, he's happy putting letters from HMRC in the plastic box outside but he's specifically been told the newspapers cannot be left and if the letterbox is boarded up to knock/ring the bell)
The government are stressing how children are very unlikely to get ill without bothering to mention that whether they do or not their clothes etc. can still carry the virus.
It would appear that tennis balls are incapable of holding any viral material too. I've already patented the furry shopping trolley handle and I'm in discussion with Aldi, Tesco and others about licensing it.
As I pointed out “economic reasons”. Globally – Days/productivity loss is billions per year.
Perhaps, but vaccination can only be justified for health, not economic reasons. Vaccine reactions are generally very rare but, if you vaccinate millions of people for a trivial illness like a cold, it is quite possible that you would cause more serious health problems than you prevent.
I don't doubt that the world will get better at using antivirals or other strategies to mitigate the damage caused by coronavirus, but I can't see a situation where there will be a magic bullet in the same way that antibiotics emerged against bacterial infections. The reasons why some people have insignificant levels of illness while others become seriously ill or die are complex and multifactorial, influenced by everything from initial viral load, strain type, plus their underlying health and the genetic makeup that drives it.
How does herd immunity work if natural immunity wanes after 6 months?
Vaccination - you have to reduce the susceptible pool. There is no lifelong immunity to other coronaviruses, will this one be different? Why should it be?
Forget for now anything more sophisticated than a semi-log graph at which point do we expect the virus to behave differently in the UK than Italy, Spain and France?
on the way up we saw exactly the same. Whilst we continue to do the same as Italy and Spain, we will see exactly the same dynamics (don't believe any different, countries aren't THAT dissimilar). In fact the epidemic decline is faster in Spain than the UK and perhaps Italy, and this is possibly due to the severity of their lockdown.
I linked to the mink farms, just because this is zoonotic (well bats, obviously), and hence control/eradication in humans does not preclude future outbreaks from animals if it becomes endemic in the environment. Compared to measles, it's not particularly infectious, actually.
if you vaccinate millions of people for a trivial illness like a cold, it is quite possible that you would cause more serious health problems than you prevent.
There is always PASSIVE vaccination, where you get the antibody not the pathogen, I'm working on one of those for treatment and protection.
Short cut that process and just sell people pre-cut tennis balls they can slip over a trolley handle.
My mum swears blind that she had it at Christmas
One of the local drama queens was insisting they had it in September last year. I'm sure someone will, at some point, go one better and 'had it in 2018' fairly soon...
Some immunity perspective from a preprint following reinfection dynamics of the other four circulating coronaviruses. Basically expect about six to twelve months immunity. And perhaps a little cross-reactivity. Ten patients and 20 patient-years of data.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20086439v1
/blockquote>Can someone with some medical background explain a load of stuff about immunity in general to those of us struggling to understand what's going on? Or even better a link explaining all this stuff in layman's terms.
- Does vaccination typically give longer immunity than immunity through infection - why?
- It seems clear that many people have CV, fight it off, but don't generate anti-bodies in the the blood - why? Do people who suffer bad cases generate antibodies, while people who shrug it off don't 'need' to?
- Can someone give an example of an existing virus where "catching it" gives poor immunity whereas vaccination gives long lasting immunity? (Or vice versa!)
- Do we know why the body doesn't maintain antibodies for Corona Viruses for long, while for other viruses you get lengthy periods of resistance. (I understand in the case of flu the problem is the virus evolves fast, but Corona virus doesn't so clearly the body is literally losing its resistance. )
- Do people reinfected at 6 months or later get a milder version of the Virus because their body 'remembers' how to make the right antibodies even though they have no antibodies in their system? (Eg would you be vulnerable to reinfection, but far less likely to die over (say) ten years.)
some very interesting opinion pieces / essays on this site, quite thought provoking.
https://www.nesta.org.uk/feature/beyond-crisis/
I’m sure someone will, at some point, go one better and ‘had it in 2018’ fairly soon…
Contracted whilst on holiday in 'Elevenerife'?
Perhaps, but vaccination can only be justified for health, not economic reasons.
Ultimately you can only vaccinate for something that has a vaccine. Like it or not who's going to pay is an axis on the "will we develop a vaccine" space along with severity and how much will it cost and how effective will it be.
I'm sure lots of employers would pay for their employees to be vaccinated at some price point and benefit.
Quite ...
It would appear that tennis balls are incapable of holding any viral material too. I’ve already patented the furry shopping trolley handle and I’m in discussion with Aldi, Tesco and others about licensing it.
but I'm a step ahread and I reckon its cheaper to just put newsprint on paper. I'm just researching how the content of the print reduces transmission.
All the political circlejerk is getting tiring.
Especially since we have a variety of people posting relevant scientific material and explaining it, and they are doing it for free (can’t thank you enough).
Is it possible that we keep this thread on the informative/ scientific side?
Is it possible that we keep this thread on the informative/ scientific side?
A fair few of this have asked this on numerous occasions, but the know-alls are nothing if not persistant.
All the political circlejerk is getting tiring.
Especially since we have a variety of people posting relevant scientific material and explaining it, and they are doing it for free (can’t thank you enough).
Is it possible that we keep this thread on the informative/ scientific side?
+1
We really need two threads: 'CoronVirus (Political)" and 'CoronVirus (Technical/Medical)".
Where there's crossover the post goes in the Political thread.
The links to detail and informed insight are getting lost.
@Drac @Cougar (Not sure if that will work!)
Ultimately you can only vaccinate for something that has a vaccine. Like it or not who’s going to pay is an axis on the “will we develop a vaccine” space along with severity and how much will it cost and how effective will it be.
I’m sure lots of employers would pay for their employees to be vaccinated at some price point and benefit.
https://www.verywellhealth.com/why-there-will-never-be-a-vaccine-for-the-common-cold-770451
An interesting perspective - warning contains alt right views.
No shouting at the screen and its the last 10 minutes where Starkey gives his analysis of Johnson that is the most interesting.
Interesting spectator article - it says that kids cannot spread it, so closing schools therefore would not have actually helped. Also that the disease might've been spread initially actually in hospitals.
Interesting spectator article – it says that kids cannot spread it, so closing schools therefore would not have actually helped. Also that the disease might’ve been spread initially actually in hospitals.
Isn't that fake news, as it's well known kids can spread it?
That sort of information is extremely dangerous.
Interesting spectator article – it says that kids cannot spread it,
Seems strange that it wasnt published in Nature or New Scientist first!
Interesting spectator article – it says that kids cannot spread it, so closing schools therefore would not have actually helped. Also that the disease might’ve been spread initially actually in hospitals.
It was the latter hypothesis I thought was consistent with yours and would certainly explain a lot of the strange way CV has progressed.
The only bit of the "kids" paragraph I thought was interesting was "Children appear to have ACE2 receptors, the cellular lock that the coronavirus picks, in their noses but not their lungs.". I'd say that is certainly not the conventional view (I've looked hard) but I doubt he made it up so where did it come from? I'd love to read the detail of it.
Another request for separate science vs politics discussion
I’m not sure it’s possible to separate the two… I mean when we have today’s press conference, and the minister warbles on about following the science, and then passes the question to a scientist standing next to them, yet the science referred to is so far unpublished… will our responses be about the politics or the science?
A fair few of this have asked this on numerous occasions, but the know-alls are nothing if not persistant
TBF generally, when it's been noted, people have wound their necks in. The handling of this is, by it's very nature, political. Kids going back to school - political decision, or economic necessity? ( Note - rhetorical! )
I’m not sure it’s possible to separate the two…
Let's take that chance!
...and...
Where there’s crossover the post goes in the Political thread.
PS: Sorry to all for my cringe-worthy poncey language in the post above. I re-read it after the magic edit button had gone.
caution, politics
Wouldn't you adam and eve it, it's the scientists fault for doing wrongity bad mistakes science.
One thread for government policy decisions and another for science/informative is more than doable.
And the thread for discussing whether or not there should be two threads as that subject has now taken over this thread.😊
As for wrong or right decisions the issue isn't whether anyone, scientist or member of government got anything wrong, of course they did, that will always happen in such a situation but were any of them wrong because they were negligent. We shouldn't be looking to attack anyone just for being wrong but looking to see if anyone was negligent and also we should look very hard at anyone who might have been "economical with the truth"
Another 545 deaths today - the UK numbers seem to be hardly declining at all, and are falling a lot slower than e.g. Italy or Spain!
Seroprevalence shows that children catch COVID19 and have similar prevalence to adults. However, it poses little morbidity and almost no mortality in children (unlike influenza btw). I can think of no reason why they should not be able to spread the virus to adults once they come home from school. Pandemic precautions were predicted on preventing morbidity in children that could also swamp healthcare. Schools closed in 2009. If much transmission has been hospital (nosocomial) and nursing home, then they may not have been the primary route, but there is no reason why they could not be in the community.
I'm cautious about a staged school opening, personally. It's not based on analysis.
Is it just me, or does the curve of deaths with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 look much more symmetrical than the confirmed-only one?
Is there any basis for a hopeless optimist to think that the drift in testing strategy and capacity over time might be responsible for the apparent difference between up rate and down rate? The 'suspected' curve looks much more promising for a more rapid overall drop...
Would be hard for them to cross over though!
Madame has been back at school. There have been no new cases within about 50km for several days and nationally the new cases are well down. Down to the point testing and tracing of clusters may be enough to manage the situation. It's hot here too now. Windows and doors open everywhere. Anyhow she weighed up the risks and decided to go back.
50% of parents signed up and 40% have actually sent their kids in. Class sizes have been been under 10 but they can cope with up to 15 in most of the relatively large classrooms. Everybody wears a mask.
A bit of pure speculation, is the virus running out of steam? Locally things have declined faster than I expected, the exponential decline I was anticipating quite suddenly went to zero new cases. Regionally there have been a few clusters, abatoirs, a school meeting (not teaching) but they don't gather speed in the general community.
And if it's losing steam is it thanks to the measures or is the virus becoming less virulent, has the arrival of Summer reduced the air-borne propogation? Which ever it is, fingers crossed.
I'm not an immunologist, but I did study it and I work in immuno-inflammation, so here are some layman's answers:
– Does vaccination typically give longer immunity than immunity through infection – why?
Vaccines come in basically two forms, full fat virus (attenuated hopefully to not be pathogenic - but there have been mistakes here), or diet - just a few proteins from the surface of the virus (or bacteria). Your immune system makes cells that recognize small parts of all sorts of proteins (called antigens). These cells undergo some filtering to remove the ones that are not you (otherwise you may develop autoimmune disease) and then roam around looking to bind to bits of protein (antigens) - they then take them off to be processed by other cells and then presented to kick off a response. That is called the adaptive immunity.
Hopefully there is at least one cell clone that fits the bit of protein in the vaccine (or virus) and tells these cells to get to work, expand, attack, and generally make some antibodies. When they expand, some become sleeper (called memory) cells are also made ready to get to work at a later date. So you have some antibody (immediate protection) which decays away slowly over months, and some sleeper cells ready to recognize either the real thing next time. If you don't make those sleeper cells, you will not have lasting immunity.
You also have an older immune system (called innate) that is trigger happy first line of defense, ready to fire as soon as it sees a nasty. This is a primeval response that works through chemical signaling of the antigen, like the surface of a bacteria or virus. It starts the antibody production process for Immunoglobulin M (called IgM) - a big fat antibody that likes to live on surfaces to man the barricades. The Immunoglobulin G - (IgG) a smaller more nimble antibody comes a bit later (recall those antibody tests).
– It seems clear that many people have CV, fight it off, but don’t generate anti-bodies in the the blood – why? Do people who suffer bad cases generate antibodies, while people who shrug it off don’t ‘need’ to?
Severity may be due to dose of virus - your immune system is chasing an exponentially growing pathogen, so it had better grow fast - if it struggle to catch up before the virus gets comfy at the bottom of the lungs, maybe you get "bad COVID". I expect given suitable detection levels, everyone will have antibodies, but they may be at low levels. There is also a test to see if there are memory cells as well.
– Can someone give an example of an existing virus where “catching it” gives poor immunity whereas vaccination gives long lasting immunity? (Or vice versa!)
Not really - but the Rabies vaccine is so good, it still works even after you've been infected. Catching a cold (rhinovirus) does not really give protection, because the surface coat changes. Catching flu gives more future protection. Measles is effectively lifelong protection via infection or vaccine. If you catch chickenpox (varicella), you never become immune, you just keep the bugger at bay at low levels in your nervous system. Get run down and back it comes (shingles). There is a shingles vaccine that is designed to give your immune system a kick to keep those bad boys in your nerves at bay.
– Do we know why the body doesn’t maintain antibodies for Corona Viruses for long, while for other viruses you get lengthy periods of resistance. (I understand in the case of flu the problem is the virus evolves fast, but Corona virus doesn’t so clearly the body is literally losing its resistance. )
Antibodies are produced by immune cells called B cells. They typically persist for about six months (otherwise newborn babies would be very vulnerable because they get theirs from the mother) as their immune system grows. If the signal to keep the little factories going turns off, then immunity will wane.
– Do people reinfected at 6 months or later get a milder version of the Virus because their body ‘remembers’ how to make the right antibodies even though they have no antibodies in their system? (Eg would you be vulnerable to reinfection, but far less likely to die over (say) ten years.)
Yes. That's why children can get nasty flu and the middle aged not so bad. The elderly may be more severe due to general reduced immune systems. But viruses can be a bit cunning, especially influenza, which may swap it's coat and not be recognized at all - that was H1N1 flu in 2009.
Hope that makes some sense. IANAI
If the main source of spreading has been hospitals, this is mainly because they have been continuing to function whilst much else is closed down. I think currently if we reopen schools we will see a resurgence of infection not in the actual schools (if children are mainly asymptomatic), but in homes and in the communities they serve. We need to get community levels of infection down to low single digits, with effective TTIS in place before we open schools again.
Hope that makes some sense. IANAI
Hi TiRed. Sometimes your posts are the only things making sense. Thanks.
Another 545 deaths today – the UK numbers seem to be hardly declining at all
The numbers are always high on a Tuesday, due to the reporting lag over the weekend.
You need to look at the 7 day rolling average which is dropping.
In simple terms it was 627 last tuesday, and 545 today. A 82 reduction.
This week on week reduction, is repeated for most days over the past 2 weeks.
Also the number of positive daily cases is dropping. Below 3,000 cases a day and 4% of confirmed results, which will lead to numbers dropping in a weeks time.
+1. While TiRed's posts might not always be what we want to hear, they've certainly helped me understand something about not just the virus but the response. Thankyou.
If the main source of spreading has been hospitals,
That's from the Spectator I assume and I dispute it. I've folowed the identified sources of clusters from the outset and many have been identified: religious meetings, ski resorts and in particular parties and discos, aeroplances, buses and trains, schools. The main source of spreading has been people travelling and mixing.
In France several strains have been identified, 97 genomes have been identified which allows different strains to be identified and followed. One which was circulating very early thought to have its origins in China which didn't cause many severe cases, then the one of unknown origin which caused the main wave, and others... .
There is very little evidence to suggest that the propogation was between hopsitals which tend to serve a local community within a limited catchment and lot of evidence points to people travelling spreading the virus.
France has restricted travel to 100km, that seems eminently sensible, shutting hospitals won't stop the spread of the virus. (add smiley if you wish)
Anyone know if our brave, courageous, glorious Churchillian leader is still alive?
It’s been a week since anyone’s seen him.
#wheresboris?
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In France several strains have been identified
Not so:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-strains-transmissible/611239/
There will be different strains identified one day, but not yet.
@TiRed, that really is first class, answers questions I've had for week many thanks! (Also rare that I get myself a coffee and a biscuit to settle down to read a single STW post!)
" I’ve folowed the identified sources of clusters from the outset and many have been identified:"
Have you considered the possibility that the stuff that gets reported in the press might not be a fair and accurate representative sample of what happens in reality?
It's surely worth considering as a possibility.
If the main source of spreading has been hospitals, this is mainly because they have been continuing to function whilst much else is closed down.
I think that was exactly Molegrip's point. We're doing a very limited range of stuff yet it's still being spread to a degree. One place where people *are* still getting up close and personal is care settings etc. so may be they are a candidate here.
During the lockdown it can really only be significantly spreading through supermarkets, hospitals/docs/care homes/hospitals or workplaces. If you assume the older victims who make up the majority of the stats aren't working and shouldn't typically be grocery shopping so maybe care settings etc are candidates.
Who knows if that's right, but it seems plausible.
I used "strain" to translate "varieties", my poor translation doesn't change the verity of the article. Institut Pasteur talk about "varieties of the virus". Read "varieties" rather than strain if you wish.
The article also talks about "un autre clade" the clade being the most basic unit in the phylogenetic definition of species (in English too probably). There are varieties, different clades of the virus, that can be identified and traced.
: religious meetings, ski resorts and in particular parties and discos, aeroplances, buses and trains, schools.
How many religious meetings, parties and discos do you think have been going on in the worst affected countries during their lockdown? How busy have ski resorts been a month away from mid-summer and during lockdown? Reckon the airline industry has been thriving while half the world is on lockdown?
The whole point was these things can be completely ruled out for the last 8-12 weeks so it's spreading elsewhere and there really are few candidates to pick from.
One activity where social distancing is impossible and where older people have a lot of contact is care settings of various types. Seems a plausible hypothesis to me.
Edukator
MemberThat’s from the Spectator I assume and I dispute it. I’ve folowed the identified sources of clusters from the outset and many have been identified: religious meetings, ski resorts and in particular parties and discos, aeroplances, buses and trains, schools. The main source of spreading has been people travelling and mixing.
Initially, sure. But lockdowns and changes of behaviour will have changed that massively.