Forum menu
The Coronavirus Dis...
 

The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

Posts: 0
Free Member
 

I second Nobeerinthefridge post,very sad,best wishes Troutwrestler.


 
Posted : 15/05/2020 11:21 pm
 kcr
Posts: 2949
Free Member
 

But that’s no reason to keep pulling apart a guy who’s kid is at a school who can do it.

Well, I know nothing about the person posting the messages, and I have no interest in pulling them apart. However, I don't think the situation described in that specific school sounds like something that can be applied to the vast majority of UK schools.
I'd struggle to see how social distancing and anti-viral precautions could sensibly be applied at the very ordinary run of the mill state primary my kids attend. My brother is an assistant head in a secondary school, currently open for key workers' kids, and he can't see how "normal" schooling can be restarted at the moment.


 
Posted : 15/05/2020 11:35 pm
Posts: 868
Full Member
 

For those who live in Oxfordshire, be careful please.
This is a graph of the number of new cases per day. Oxfordshire is in Blue. Germany in green as a comparison, with the peaks aligned to help guide what should have happened.
It might be linked to increased testing in hospitals or care homes. I only have the data, not what is happening behind the scenes.

The image/graph doesn't display


 
Posted : 15/05/2020 11:36 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

A quick aside.
Why is the southwest R the second highest in the country when we have the lowest number of cases?

Data from the Cambridge figures released today.


 
Posted : 15/05/2020 11:38 pm
Posts: 3264
Free Member
 

Could it be that you are behind the curve, still in the early stages of the epidemic where due to low numbers of infections, a high R still leads to relatively low numbers, but that will rapidly grow soon?


 
Posted : 15/05/2020 11:41 pm
Posts: 44719
Full Member
 

Interesting that the BMA have said its too early to open schools

Liverpool council have said they will not be opening any schools on Johnsons timetable with others expected to follow

None will be opening in Scotland or Wales

The unions have legal advice to say its legal for teachers to refuse to work if their safety is not guaranteed.

Anyone still think they are going to open in a few weeks? Its unutterably stupid idea with no science basis.

I expect a surge in infections over the next couple of weeks and panic in Tory ranks


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:11 am
Posts: 44719
Full Member
 

it’s crazy out there

Lots of folk taking exercise today and one group of 6 kids not distancing - but apart from that traffic is still a tiny & of usual round here and clearly the lockdown is holding. Just.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:16 am
Posts: 1083
Full Member
 

Thanks for your ongoing efforts trout wrestler, aa and the other teachers.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:25 am
Posts: 2434
Free Member
 

Here in the Midlands my kids school has said they won’t be opening in June.
Wife is a Primary School Teacher, year 2. Not a chance can they maintain social distancing. Do kids bring in their own pencils, how do you stop them from sharing? How many kids put pencils in their mouths, ears, nose etc? Drop them on the floor and lose them...kids falling over and hurting themselves, who cleans their wounds and gives them a cuddle? Kids upset because they haven’t seen family for months, kids who accidentally soil their pants, who cleans that up?
Teachers are expected to do all that, told its safe they don’t need PPE.....
My wife is upset by it. We have an asthmatic daughter who we are doing our best to protect (not mild seasonal asthma). Like most people my wife is missing her parents, but she won’t go and see them while she has to work, her father isn’t overly healthy, nearly 70 and African. Not quite a high risk category but not far off. She can’t rationalise the fact that it’s safe to clean other kids faeces, have them snot all other her while they’re crying and upset, but it’s not safe to visit her mum.
Wife had a letter from her Union asking about her decision, whether she will support their stance of rejecting going back in June. She hasn’t decided yet as feels obliged to go.
Apologies for the rant, mixed gin with beer, never a good mix!!


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:39 am
Posts: 34479
Full Member
 

It's not the kissin, licking biting, whatever

It's the bogeys

My kids can't keep their fingers out of their noses!

Anyway
Roads a lot busier round here & loads of bikers out on the trails !

Infections will rise again, schools won't open

STAY HONE SAVE LIVES, was almost too effective, people dying of avoidable things because they're too scared of A&E

BE ALERT, is meaningless and lockdown is weakening enough to get R well above 1, without test, track & trace in place to shut new infections down, it's bonkers to reopen schools or much else.

That said government are so bonkers they'll do it anyway, but people will keep their kids away anyway

(But things are getting nastier , RW press don't like seeing Johnson humiliated by starmer week in, week out, they'll shift blame on to unions teachers etc)


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:43 am
Posts: 7998
Full Member
 

We're just starting to plan for opening for Year 10 (I'm Head of Year 10) in some form, with a provisional start date of June 8. Early stages yet for us, but our Trust CEO has been pretty firm that we won't do anything that potentially endangers any students or staff. Fair amount of disquiet among staff about our ability to do that currently.

My first job is to contact parents to see who will send kids in, who won't, who is undecided, and why. I think we'll be lucky to get 50% agreeing to come in, and anything above 33% actually coming in will surprise me. We are in an area of high deprivation (highest rating in fact), so it's not a middle class thing as the media are portraying IMO. Everybody cares about their kids regardless of background - they might show that in different ways occasionally but I still believe it (in our setting I have to...).

Our building is 1950s, so narrow corridors, etc. We're going to need some interesting routines to keep distance consistently.

I'm not personally convinced we will be open on June 8.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:52 am
Posts: 7998
Full Member
 

(But things are getting nastier , RW press don’t like seeing Johnson humiliated by starmer week in, week out, they’ll shift blame on to unions teachers etc)

Already happening. It'll be like the '80s all over again...


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:57 am
 loum
Posts: 3624
Free Member
 

But I dont know, if I cant go and see my mum or my friends should we even be considering school?

I can see them reversing that argument before June first.
Reckless, but they might use it as the sweetener to buy the public opinion that schools are safe. It's an easy card for Cummings to play. Just "Stay Alert" when you go and they shift responsibility to you.
We already know science won't lead policy.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 5:20 am
Posts: 44719
Full Member
 

, but our Trust CEO has been pretty firm that we won’t do anything that potentially endangers any students or staff.

You will not be reopening then on june 8th


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 6:50 am
Posts: 24796
Free Member
 

I fully respect the decisions of all schools, heads, staff and unions at this time - I don't think it is time to be reopening. But I would note a couple of things; we have the chance to wait and learn from other countries and see whether kids can socially distance effectively and also what the impact is. Why are we slow to put measures in place when we see bad things happening, but right on the coattails when the direction is reversed?

And second is that "we won’t do anything that potentially endangers any students or staff". Pedantic but that would mean a very long shutdown. There will always be increased risk, until eradication or complete treatments. What a tolerable level looks like IDK, and I'm not sure anyone else really does just now, but at some point the balance of that risk against the need / benefit to go back to school, or work, or whatever, has to be made. And that can't be individual choice* in the end, it will have to be policy guided by PROPER science - not just whoever the Gov can find to deliver an opinion they like.

* in the end in a 'free society' it is individual choice and there may be people who leave various professions because of the risks they are asked to take but that's a different argument.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 8:14 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Maybe a lot of schools can’t do all those things and shouldn’t open up.

and those schools get mangled in the press and by angry parents.

And second is that “we won’t do anything that potentially endangers any students or staff”. Pedantic but that would mean a very long shutdown.

Exactly, unless a vaccine is in place risk will rise. The current death rate does seem too high though.

But I dont know, if I cant go and see my mum or my friends should we even be considering school?

I can see them reversing that argument before June first.

Yep me too, I wont be visiting my mum if school reopens though, my risk of passing it to her would be too high.

The bottom line is our gov ****ed it up early and now we are expected to live with it and get the economy back moving despite a much higher death rate than other countries.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 8:32 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

Adds to the “nothing to see here” mood though, as the government continues to announce the highest death rates in Europe and an R rate increasing as a result of sending people back into workplaces, schools and tourist spots too soon. Go on, get back to normal… don’t ‘scaremonger’…

It’s worth noting that there’s about a 3 week lag on calculating the R rate and the slight rise is thought to be due to the inclusion of data from care homes.

It’s got nothing to do with the lifting of lockdown regs, they only started 3 days ago, we won’t have data on that for weeks.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 8:33 am
Posts: 1084
Full Member
 

he can’t see how “normal” schooling can be restarted at the moment

It's not 'normal'. What they are doing is vastly different from what they used to do.

We seriously need to move away from the attitude of 'we can't do the old normal so we'll do nothing instead'.

Thank christ we have a school full of staff who are willing to be pragmatic and actually find a solution to which works best for the children and staff going forward.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 8:44 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Thank christ we have a school full of staff who are willing to be pragmatic and actually find a solution

You do realise almost all schools are open for key worker kids at the moment dont you?


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 8:54 am
Posts: 33071
Full Member
 

It’s not ‘normal’. What they are doing is vastly different from what they used to do.

Very much this.

And God help me for trying to support this useless government, but all their planned changes announced last week had the caveat "if it meets the 5 tests, if it is safe to do so". Schools and teachers are not - can not - be forced to open if they can't do so safely, parents will not be made to send kids back in June.

Whether the government stick to their word on that will be a real test.

And yes, kids going to school is a real risk to them, the teachers and wider families. But I'll say again, for some kids, being at home is a more serious and immediate risk, and it's my wife and her social work colleagues who are literally going into those houses - with no PPE beyond a theoretical risk assessment - to deal with it.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 8:59 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

And yes, kids going to school is a real risk to them, the teachers and wider families. But I’ll say again, for some kids, being at home is a more serious and immediate risk, and it’s my wife and her social work colleagues who are literally going into those houses – with no PPE beyond a theoretical risk assessment – to deal with it.

The difference being all kids will be increasing risk rather than a minority who your wife visits and in epidemiological terms thats a much bigger effect which could impact.all of us.

Thats not to in anyway detract from the essential and brave work your wife does, I take my hat of to her I really do


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:08 am
Posts: 31036
Full Member
 

‘we can’t do the old normal so we’ll do nothing instead’

Which schools and teachers are “doing nothing”? I know of none around here.

and it’s my wife and her social work colleagues who are literally going into those houses

She’s essential. And we need more of her and her colleagues, but, here at least, we now have fewer, thanks to budget restrictions. They are needed even more than normal now, for sure. Children’s social services, and also children’s mental health services, are forgotten about by politicians… and the idea that schools and teachers can fill the increasing gaps in essential care has become the new normal. They try. But they can’t always.

Any feedback on a question asked recently, because I don’t think any of the rest of have any idea really… and this is that if attendance during this partial greater opening of schools is voluntary… and schools are only expecting about half the pupils in a few year groups in… will that get a substantial proportion of these at risk kids into schools? Or will most still be at home and requiring intervention there?


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:13 am
Posts: 2434
Free Member
 

Jonm81, what age school are you referring to? I’d feel safer if PPE was provided, but teachers have already been told it’s not needed.
We seriously need to move away from the attitude of the government said it will be safe so let’s crack on, to questioning the “science” led guidance. Safety comes first, whether that’s teachers or pupils.
I’ve seen the first set of government instructions sent to schools, they are laughable in how far removed they are from reality.
I do agree we need to understand the new normal, but It can’t be implemented in a way that puts teachers, pupils and families at too great a risk. I’ve not seen any schools or teachers stubbornly saying “no”, but I have seen the reaction to the guidelines asking how schools can implement them.
I’m pleased my daughters school of over 1000 pupils in a fixed old fashioned school building has acknowledged they cannot safely allow the school to reopen by the 1st June. They have stated it would be irresponsible to do so. To reduce class sizes we need more teachers, more TA’s, more class rooms, more cleaners working throughout the day, we need parents to stagger opening times and collecting times - meaning parents need to be on time. Lunches will be staggered as will breaks. More emphasis should be placed on teaching and the caring elements significantly reduced. In our comfortable world we don’t see the amount of at risk children whom schools provide a safe place for. The children with special education needs whom a school tries its best to integrate into the school as a whole, that is going to change.
Some schools will be able to adopt changes quickly, others will have very valid reasons why it will take longer to do it safely. Unfortunately all significant change takes time and money to implement.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:29 am
Posts: 1084
Full Member
 

You do realise almost all schools are open for key worker kids at the moment dont you?

Yes I do. So if the teachers are already exposed to the risk then the question is: what percentage of the exposed are getting infected?

There are quite a lot of kids have kept attending our school (~15% of the usual attendance) and there have been no covid infections with identifiable symptoms since this began.

Yes, there will be risk, but there will always be risk.

I'll ask again: if nothing is going to change re. vaccines, size of schools or number of teachers by september, what are you going to do then? Still stay at home and write off a whole generations education?

Whilst I don't particularly like the Tories, they are having to balance the risk from the virus against the socio-economic risk to the whole country. There will be a point that the consequences of the lockdown (for those not lucky enough to be at home on full pay with no prospect of losing their job) outweigh the costs of coming out of lockdown. The government clearly think we have reached that point. Whether they are right or not neither you or I know.

As to a second peak, unless we eradicate this virus entirely whilst locked down (impossible), there WILL be a second peak. What will be interesting is how high that peak is.

Woodster- its a First School so reception to Year 3. The First, Middle and Upper, all located next to eachother, and another local First school all got together to do the risk assessments and work out how to move forward.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:30 am
Posts: 31036
Full Member
 

A phased return to classrooms isn’t being questioned by any teacher I know. It is the timing of that, paired with the idea that going back while the virus is so prevalent will be mitigated by unrealistic social distancing rules in schools.

As to a second peak, unless we eradicate this virus entirely whilst locked down (impossible), there WILL be a second peak.

Why so defeatist? And that “WILL”… does that apply to all countries, or just the UK?

Get the virus under control before loosening physical distancing measures, get track/trace/isolate in place to control local flare ups. If we do the right measures in the right order, we can return to more normal working, learning and social interaction sooner. If we just decide a second peak is unavoidable, and don’t do everything we can to avoid it, restrictions (and avoidable deaths) will drag on and on.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:36 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Yes I do. So if the teachers are already exposed to the risk then the question is: what percentage of the exposed are getting infected?

Every time you post you just type rubbish. Its not "the risk", its some risk, risk can increase or reduce its not off or on.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:46 am
Posts: 2003
Full Member
 

I'm expecting the government to start touting more / new Free Schools as the solution to being able to manage school capacity.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:49 am
Posts: 9203
Free Member
 

The risk of sending more kids back to school on June 1st is not just about the risk of spreading infection between the kids, teachers and other school staff...

It's mainly about the above taking COVID-19 home (although there will be an increased risk of complications for the adults at the schools), passing it on to family at home, who then take it into their place of work and into the supermarkets etc. while not displaying symptoms.

Exponential infection rate says hi.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:58 am
Posts: 1084
Full Member
 

Kelvin - even you just typed local flare ups. These will cause a peak. How high that peak is will depend on how we manage it through mitigation measures be that social distancing or track and trace. Which is what I said. The peak could be large or small but as people start interacting again then new infections will occur.

A_a what do you personally want before you go back to school? Define it in any way you want be that number of deaths/infections, ppe provision, risk scoring, etc.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 9:59 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

A_a what do you personally want before you go back to school

I've been in school the whole time


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:04 am
Posts: 1084
Full Member
 

**** me do I need to phrase the question perfectly for you to answer.

what do you personally want before your school opens up to get more than just the key worker children back in to some form of schooling in a school setting? Define it in any way you want be that number of deaths/infections, ppe provision, risk scoring, etc.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:09 am
Posts: 7503
Free Member
 

TTI is currently in the fantasy stage. It just isn't happening. Govt has recruited less than 10% of the staff they were promising.

It's going to take something pretty radical to stop a 2nd wave coming along in a week or three.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:11 am
Posts: 28712
Full Member
 

It’s going to take something pretty radical to stop a 2nd wave coming along in a week or three

But to an extent, it's going to happen in 2, 3, 10 or 15 weeks. Its how bad and how we deal with it. We can't make this magically go away.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:18 am
Posts: 7503
Free Member
 

No, we needed to lock down a week earlier, then we'd at least be in Germany's position with under 10k deaths and many fewer cases to deal with.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:21 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

**** me do I need to phrase the question perfectly for you to answer

No just not type misleading shite.

what do you personally want before your school opens up to get more than just the key worker children back in to some form of schooling in a school setting

Its revealing that all the people coming on here demanding the easing of restrictions cannot seem to see past their noses and understand that whilst some things have a very small risk we are getting our arses kicked by a tiny risk because there's quite a lot of us.

What I'd like to see before schools have large numbers of kids back is a government not obviously bull shitting me and the deaths per day down to low tens not hundreds.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:22 am
Posts: 20616
Full Member
 

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-could-end-american-exceptionalism/611605/

This article could just as easily apply to the UK, there are some striking similarities.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:23 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

No, we needed to lock down a week earlier, then we’d at least be in Germany’s position with under 10k deaths and many fewer cases to deal with.

Or even two weeks, combined with much more testing. The problems we face now are due to the inaction in Jan, Feb and March.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:28 am
Posts: 1084
Full Member
 

deaths per day down to low tens not hundreds.

Finally an answer. So you want the unachievable panacea. Lets take Influenza Flu. That still kills more than that and we have well established vaccines for that. So given what you want is likely to never be achievable are you advocating never getting all the kids back to school.

Its revealing that all the people coming on here demanding the easing of restrictions cannot seem to see past their noses and understand that whilst some things have a very small risk we are getting our arses kicked by a tiny risk because there’s quite a lot of us.

And it's very revealing the level of panic that has been instilled in some people. For example, even though it is a very small risk for the individual, air pollution form cars kill more per year than this will yet we are not all calling for a complete ban on cars. Some perspective is required.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:31 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

So you want the unachievable panacea

Er other countries in the world seem to be doing it. Denmark has had what 400 deaths total. Netherlands are doing it, Germany pretty close, Sweden, Portugal Ireland....

And it’s very revealing the level of panic that has been instilled in some people. For example, air pollution form cars kill more per year than this will yet we are not all calling for a complete ban on cars. Some perspective is required

Whilst many regularly, often and loudly have made calls for massive reductions in car use, I'm one of those too.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:37 am
Posts: 1048
Free Member
 

TTI is currently in the fantasy stage. It just isn’t happening.

It is also appears it is being outsourced to companies like Serco to run as monolithic call centres. I'm not so sure of the utility of that.

I suppose they are allergic to giving local services money, which is partly why we are where we are.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:40 am
Posts: 7503
Free Member
 

jonm81, the problem never has been the number of deaths. Never has been. We all die, after all. The media coverage has of course been stupidly simplistic, but then again, people are stupidly simplistic, so what else can be done?

The problem is the _rate_ of deaths, if we all get it in the space of a few weeks (which would have happened if people had all kept acting as normal). It would have been up to many thousand per day (background level about 1700 per day, so we already doubled that despite lockdown). We'd have been knee-deep in bodies and digging big pits to dump them in. Like foot and mouth but with humans. Many more would be dying at home, lying undiscovered until the stench got too bad.

On top of that, the inability to treat ill people would have meant many more dying. And many more again being seriously ill with long-term harm.

What is the point of being a rich developed economy if we aren't going to protect the citizens from this? Is the new iPhone SE2020 really more important? (It is pretty good mind you.)


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:51 am
Posts: 44719
Full Member
 

It's not panic
It's sensible understanding of the risk.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:52 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

It’s sensible understanding of the risk.

and the risk to me and mine is small but its the risk to us we need to think of.

These cows care small, those ones are far away!!


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:57 am
Posts: 1084
Full Member
 

Er other countries in the world seem to be doing it. Denmark has had what 400 deaths total. Netherlands are doing it, Germany pretty close, Sweden, Portugal Ireland…

But we are starting from different points. Crying about what we should have done 3 months ago won't change where we are now. Given where we currently are we are very unlikely to get to where those countries currently are no matter what restrictions we put in place. You are comparing apples and oranges.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 10:57 am
Posts: 7503
Free Member
 

Ah, you're up to level 4 of the yes minister sketch.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:01 am
Posts: 7998
Full Member
 

tjagain
You will not be reopening then on june 8th

He's a genuinely good guy (the best Trust CEO I've worked under) but I guess this will test his resolve a little depending on how much pressure the DfE want to apply. The unknown is that we're quite a devolved Trust, and so the final decisions rest with individual Principals and their Academy teams.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:05 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Given where we currently are we are very unlikely to get to where those countries currently are no matter what restrictions we put in place

Why not Tired seems to think the numbers are fairly predictable. Certainly we should be driving them.lower before open things and risking a rise.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:06 am
Posts: 6284
Full Member
 

Is there any evidence of transmission from children to adults? I know the Swedes did a study and couldn’t find any evidence for transmission from children to parents (and their primary schools have remained open), but presumably other studies have shown evidence for this.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:07 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Is there any evidence of transmission from children to adults?

What would this evidence look like? Or a counter question is there any evidence it does not transfer? Its all pretty much unknowable at present.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:10 am
Posts: 17326
Full Member
 

It is also appears it is being outsourced to companies like Serco to run as monolithic call centres. I’m not so sure of the utility of that.

Surely you’d go to people who have the expertise in managing calls? Much better than starting from scratch.

I’m more concerned about what the tests are going to be run on. Do not forget that we were running all systems (call centres, test machines, couriers for samples...) optimally for pre-covid life. That’s called economics. A COVID19 sample run on Abbot or Roche’s fabulous auto-testing machine, is a run in place of a test for something else. PHE and other facilities didn’t just have these things lying around idle. Capacity will grow but that takes time and investment.

There is ALWAYS an opportunity cost. Picking established players reduces this cost.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:11 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Having said that my two friends in Stockholm had it (suspected) and their children seemed fine. Could the kids have bought it back from nursery? It seems the obvious route given that they were both isolating in the same way as us over here...who can tell though..

That reminds me, I should give them a call...


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:13 am
Posts: 17326
Full Member
 

Why not Tired seems to think the numbers are fairly predictable

Based on things remaining largely the same, the epidemic phase will be over by July with a half-life of 10 days. That’s why July is important. After that, slow and gentle reintroduction of contacts, be they schools, shops, restaurants, and maybe eventually offices.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:16 am
Posts: 31036
Full Member
 

Picking established players reduces this cost.

Indeed. But Serco?

Certainly we should be driving them lower before open things

This is all anyone is asking for. And they are talked down in the same way as those who were pushing for closing things down earlier, with much the same arguments. The timing is wrong. The government is not waiting for the information and means to be in place before making he move.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:17 am
Posts: 4626
Full Member
 

Is it me or does it seem a little pointless. Our school seems to be emotionally and practically having issues with the concept of re-opening in such a bizzare way, and I can't say I blame them. Surely lives are adjusted now, people have adapted? A relaxing of the rules on who can send their kids in (based on work requirement) would surely be a better approach? Opening for a few weeks now rather than hold of when it might be very different in September doesn't seem to be significantly disadvantaging anyone. It feels more ideologically driven to me than through any practical use.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:19 am
Posts: 17326
Full Member
 

Well they’ll have to step up 😉 . Pressure will be on them too, because of the high profile nature. Be more worried about their other activities. Opportunity cost.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:20 am
Posts: 17266
Full Member
 

That’s why July is important. After that, slow and gentle reintroduction of contacts, be they schools, shops, restaurants, and maybe eventually offices

TiRed, we are all small shop and are taking the hint that we can open from June 1st. Do you think they will bump shop opening to July?


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:22 am
Posts: 6284
Full Member
 

What would this evidence look like?

I know that in Iceland they ran genetic tests on the positive cases so they could track the routes of infection, so that study could provide some evidence.

Closer to home our schools have remained open for some children throughout lockdown, so there should be some evidence by now that teachers in those schools are at a higher risk than the general population. Of course they could pick it up travelling to and from school, so it wouldn’t be definitive, but if they are not showing increased risk by now then that would be evidence that there isn’t significant transmission from children to teachers.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:23 am
Posts: 31036
Full Member
 

We’ll know more by July, and ‘should’ having testing and trace/track/isolate available… why take a punt on start of June Zippy? Are you looking at selling from the doorway, with staff retrieving what customers want from the shop? Should work with your trade and staff levels. No mingling indoors. That could begin ASAP. And when can we get you mailing chocs to all our homes? Take our money!


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:26 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

A relaxing of the rules on who can send their kids in (based on work requirement) would surely be a better approach?

Given the fact that kids dont have to go, it could end up as that via the back door.
All this talk of taking decisions a school at a time is bollocks, schools will be under massive pressure to open.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:27 am
Posts: 28593
Free Member
 

Is there any evidence of transmission from children to adults?

Not a great deal, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We know that it appears to cause less severe illness generally in children, which theoretically would make it harder for them to spread it, but then again, younger children tend to be less good at stuff like personal hygiene which may mitigate this advantage by spreading around whatever viral load they carry.

The shortage of direct evidence of transmission child to adult is probably more a factor of the way testing is carried out, and the suggestion that a child is less likely to be require hospital treatment. If a child is the first person in a household to acquire the virus, the first person in that household who is likely to be tested for it is the adult they pass it too when they develop more severe illness.

It seems sensible to me to start with the assumption that, as little humans, children are more likely than not to acquire and transmit the disease in some fashion, perhaps as efficiently as larger ones.

A lot of the 'children don't spread it' messaging strikes my cynical mind as more economically motivated than scientifically rigorous.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:31 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Closer to home our schools have remained open for some children throughout lockdown, so there should be some evidence by now that teachers in those schools are at a higher risk than the general population.

Given the very low numbers of kids in the schools and the even lower numbers of staff and the very low risk anyway I doubt it would be noticeable and it wouldnt relate to increasing the numbers of kids and staff anyway as that would increase the transmission routes massively.

so it wouldn’t be definitive, but if they are not showing increased risk by now then that would be evidence that there isn’t significant transmission from children to teachers.

I dont think the absence of evidence is evidence.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:33 am
Posts: 6888
Full Member
 

Or a counter question is there any evidence it does not transfer

Almost impossible to prove a negative so not helpful. Noticed you completely failed to answer jonm81's question above about your personal criteria for re-opening schools, maybe try to get something constructive into the debate rather than the constant ranting.

As the children's commissioner said the squabbling needed stop. Would be nice if the unions engaged on the broader issues and general welfare of the kids, not just the perceived risk level as it stands at the moment from Covid-19. Maybe offer to extend half term for a further 2 weeks for teachers and kids, maybe 4 weeks, and then go back with a much shorter summer holiday. You still get the same holiday, just take it more flexibly in this time of national crisis.

Personally I don't know if now's the right time to go back, much as I am desperate for my two to go back I think it probably isn't. General lockdown should have been extended to allow the kids to go back, we've squandered the minimal wiggle room we had with the R number to allow people to have days out again. For it's worth I don't think any form of social distancing will work in schools, it's already broken down in other areas of life.

Teachers already have a bad enough reputation, the currentb union stance isn't helping that perception. The unions could probably wrong foot Boris very easily with some lateral thinking rather than just shouting NO, NO, NO.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:34 am
Posts: 33071
Full Member
 

You still get the same holiday, just take it more flexibly in this time of national crisis.

Teachers won't, they worked through Easter to have the vulnerable kids in, that won't change for upcoming holidays.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:39 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

The general feeling of this thread has got worse over the last week – more moaning, doom and gloom, more sniping at each other. Miserable buggers

Hardly surprising. Think it mirrors reality. Increased divergence in rules between the devolved nations and the first signs of lockdown easing is leading to confusion and fear which aren't the best bedfellows for happy camping.

I've noticed a big increase in social media vigilantism along with a big increase in lockdown breaking (in Wales so should still be strict).


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:43 am
Posts: 31036
Full Member
 

Before we get another ‘lazy teachers and their holidays’ trope going again… the teacher in this house is paid for 2.5 days a week, but has been working 5 days a week (plus usual weekend planning and marking) including Easter, including both bank holidays. Supporting kids with home learning, when many are not in environments where that are conducive to that, eats away the hours.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:45 am
Posts: 6888
Full Member
 

MCTD why not, some teachers and support staff worked through Easter, most didn't. The take up of that option for key workers and vulnerable kids has been woefully low. There's also an army of supply teachers out there currently not working, all dbs checked, ready to step in and cover some of those supervisory duties allowing the teachers that have worked through Easter some much neeeded respite.

It would just be nice if the unions got a little creative and helped out the boot into Boris and his appalling handling of the situation rather than appear to be behaving as badly as the government.

Kelvin who's mentioned lazy teachers, i think AA mentioned a while ago holidays are contractual, and we know many teachers normally work during at least part of their holiday entitlement. Its not about working harder, it's about being flexible to try to make the best out of the bad situation Brois has got us in.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:48 am
Posts: 26875
Full Member
 

Noticed you completely failed to answer jonm81’s question above about your personal criteria

I did, go back and have a look.

You still get the same holiday, just take it more flexibly in this time of national crisis.

You dont seem to realise teachers were in school supervising kids all easter and will be all half term

Personally I don’t know if now’s the right time to go back, much as I am desperate for my two to go back I think it probably isn’t

So we agree?

maybe try to get something constructive into the debate rather than the constant ranting.

I have tried and I havent ranted, just because some dont like what I say it doesnt mean I'm ranting, if you cant see that fine my life will continue and I'll continue to respond when people start posting bobbins.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:51 am
Posts: 28593
Free Member
 

My personal feeling is that, rather than trying to shoehorn kids back into class for the fag-end of the year in June, we would be better served using a period of lower transmission for a bigger national push to get improved facilities in place for when we return to lockdown in wave 2 later this year. We squandered the last period, let's not waste this one.

I have a lot of sympathy for the teachers' position. If we get this wrong now, all you will end up with is a lot of self-isolating or seriously-ill teachers, and a shortening of the period before school has to be emptied again anyway. I'd rather we protected those teachers so that they are available to teach, even remotely.

I'm sure there must be ways to try to improve the study environment for lots of kids at home, along with ways to arrange safer face to face teaching directly to smaller cohorts of pupils, even if it means a much-reduced in-person timetable.

We need to accept a new normal in terms of education, and child care provision.

(Yes, I'm aware that the home study environment is pretty bloody awful in a lot of families, but I guess you have to make the best of what's possible).


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:51 am
Posts: 31036
Full Member
 

appear to be behaving as badly as the government

Just because the Daily Mail has it as a headline, doesn’t make it true.

We squandered the last period, let’s not waste this one

THIS


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:53 am
Posts: 8469
Full Member
 

The problem is Boris & chums aren't interested in solutions from the unions. They've shot from the hip and won't be persuaded they are wrong.

As with everything, we don't have the numbers to make this work properly. Some teachers supporting the kids working from home, and classes of 10-15 requires twice the normal numbers. And more space.

We are running a school system at max capacity with no flex in normal times.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:56 am
Posts: 6888
Full Member
 

AA,

1. No you really didn't.
2. Yes but not all teachers by a long shot, most on a Rota, and disproportionately SLT in most schools. But it's a time of national crisis, time to pull together and contribute a bit extra where you can.
3. Reluctantly yes, i probably do agree now is not the time to go back, it could have been, but the government stuffed it up.
4. Yes you really have ranted, count up the number of posts you've made to this thread alone.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:56 am
Posts: 8469
Full Member
 

European Class sizes

An illustration of why we find it harder. As usual, cost cutting and ideology.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 11:59 am
Posts: 3422
Free Member
 

@stumpyjon

Since you missed it, here's what a_a said

What I’d like to see before schools have large numbers of kids back is a government not obviously bull shitting me and the deaths per day down to low tens not hundreds.

So low numbers before easing restrictions, seems sensible to me, as is what a lot of actual smart people have been saying/countries that aren't run by cretins are doing.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:01 pm
Posts: 1014
Free Member
 

The reason the ‘battle lines’ are being drawn at return to schools is because one of the main stumbling blocks to returning to work (and hence restarting the wider economy) is childcare. Nobody to look after your kids? No RtW for you then...

I’m amazed at some attitudes displayed towards what is and isn’t acceptable risk (and we’re talking here of potential fatal or life changing consequences) FOR OTHERS. We’ve already seen how exactly this cavalier attitude to other people’s live’s has played out for the healthcare workers (and probably more directly comparable, care home workers).

It is abundantly clear that the risk of infection is significantly increased within the internal environment. The guidance for self isolation after contact with someone who has cv-19 is just 15 minutes. Think about that for a minute before you push people into situations where it doesn’t matter that your socially distant if the building itself is the perfect breeding ground.

I’m an engineer and I’ve had a preliminary look through the literature published by REHVA, CIBSE, BESA & the likes about preparing buildings that have been shutdown for months, fit for occupation under the new ‘rules’. The recommendations are for limiting CO2 concentrations to 400ppm. For comparison BB101 (guidelines on vent, thermal comfort & IAQ in schools) states that under normal circumstances this should be limited to less than 1500ppm during the occupied period (natural vent) and 1000 for mech vent/hybrid). I can tell you from my experience getting people to open a ****ing window to reduce co2 levels (classrooms should have traffic light systems so teachers know) and prevent overheating is not easy... achieving much less (albeit with only 25-30% of ‘normal’ occupancy densities) will be problematic. Once it hits autumn and is cold with the windows open...

Basically what I’m saying is most buildings are unlikely to meet the new guidelines for occupation. Whether these makes them ‘unsafe’ is dependent on the infection risk within the occupants. Currently I am unable to square that circle. Whilst I might be happy to take that risk, I live alone and it would affect only me, alone. Others have to consider other members of their family/household.

Do you want to play covid roulette? How few ‘bullets’ do you deem acceptable to be in the revolver before you’re prepared to take the risk?

ETA: I believe the IoD has requested clarification from the government whether they will be free from criminal prosecution should someone die in the reoccupied buildings at the government’s urging (H&S at Work Act; provide a safe working environment...). I’m not sure how the person in charge of reopening a school can make an informed decision with the current situation... glad it’s not me!


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:11 pm
Posts: 20616
Full Member
 

The general feeling of this thread has got worse over the last week – more moaning, doom and gloom, more sniping at each other. Miserable buggers

As @ferrals says, there's fear, confusion, boredom, frustration, a fair chunk of anger (at the Government for being utterly inept, at "other people" for actual or perceived infractions...) and a lot of stress, some of it from uncertainty, financial insecurity, change of routine and so on and it's all building up into a massive melting pot.

I'm not saying I've got an answer, I'm not sure there'll ever be a "normal" to go back to.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:11 pm
Posts: 31036
Full Member
 

seems sensible to me

You could almost say it was “common sense”, if the government hadn’t already weaponised that term.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:18 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

I’m not sure there’ll ever be a “normal” to go back to

This is one thing that is beginning to wind me up - some poeple (in the wider world, not here) still seem to think that if we stick at the current lockdown for another month or so everything will be right as rain and we'll go back to our old ways instantly.

I also have no answers. Getting pretty ****ing fed up though even though I know I have it easy compared to many.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:20 pm
Posts: 33071
Full Member
 

*embarrassed cough*

Didn't we used to have a separate returning to school thread so we didn't completely **** up this one?


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:23 pm
 kcr
Posts: 2949
Free Member
 

There are quite a lot of kids have kept attending our school (~15% of the usual attendance)

15% of the normal attendance is not "quite a lot".

So the school you are talking about, like other schools, is currently handling a very small proportion of their roll. How do you expect the social distancing measures to work if you significantly increase the number of kids returning to school?


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:30 pm
 kcr
Posts: 2949
Free Member
 

It's highly unlikely that we're going back to pre Covid education arrangements any time soon. That's why I put quotes around the word when I wrote about returning to "normal" schooling.

Of course schools may reopen in a different form. The problem is that the government are floating the idea of reopening without providing any concrete, practical proposals about how that would be done. Yet again, they've just not bothered doing their homework.


 
Posted : 16/05/2020 12:38 pm
Page 150 / 499