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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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Tell you what, this coronavirus scare makes you realise just how dependant we all are on world government.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 5:36 pm
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Some of the views being espoused on this thread are truly some of the most distasteful things I've read on STW for a very long time.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 5:39 pm
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One case has been reported close to home today. Think I'll chance going home as I don't fancy isolation at work.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 5:41 pm
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is it my browser, or is there some serious editing/moderation going on in this thread?


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 5:54 pm
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On a related note, it will take just one Corona carrying person using the London Underground at rush hour and the genie will be well and truly out of the bottle.

Or not. All depends how sneazy/coughy and touchy they are. If they didn't sneeze or cough and didn't put their hands all over the place then only the few closest would get it. Not really any different than if someone had it in a crowded meeting room I was in last week.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 5:55 pm
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Perfect opportunity for any savvy kid to get a couple of weeks off school
Muuuuum, my throats really really really sore and Jimmy's dad's brothers cousin went skiing in Italy 2 weeks ago


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 6:39 pm
 Drac
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Muuuuum, my throats really really really sore and Jimmy’s dad’s brothers cousin went skiing in Italy 2 weeks ago

Did he have confirmed Covid 19?

Noooooooo?

The get to school you lazy shit.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 6:42 pm
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Did he have confirmed Covid 19?

Noooooooo?

The get to school you lazy shit.

Thats what my wife said to me this morning!!


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 6:50 pm
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The bubble needs bursting, and if coronavirus is the means to do that then it’s probably no bad thing.

Uh, no, that would be a bad thing. It might happen but preferably political, social and environmental change would preferably not be driven by suffering.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 6:53 pm
 Drac
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Thats what my wife said to me this morning!!

😂


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 6:56 pm
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Perfect opportunity for any savvy kid to get a couple of weeks off school

Not just kids. There has been a confirmed case at a TV studio in Maidstone. It was reported in the local rag that all the builders working on a housing development next door immediately went home for the foreseeable, and two women whose flats overlook the studios have taken their kids & moved in with family.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 7:16 pm
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Mice is hanta virus

Someone told me it was reindeer

There doesn’t seem to be any confirmed cases in Southampton in the media, but some out towards Romsey

Do tell - I'd heard that there were no +ves in Hampshire


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 7:41 pm
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It’s a small world after all.

I felt this deserved more recognition 👏👏


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 7:45 pm
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My little corner shop is well ahead of the curve.

He's got a load of ffp2 masks in stock. Yeah,I bought some.

Googling suggests they do offer some marginal protection if fitted properly and if nothing else, prevent you touching your mouth/ noise. Which is a bad idea. Not importantly, if you did get infected it can help prevent you spreading it to others.of course.

Selling them cheap too. I looked on Amazon out of interest and the prices are a bit mental.Lol

My other half works in a pathology lab in an NHS hospital and they have just started getting (potential) covid tests coming through. This is in North Kent.

She doesnt process them though, they go to a more specialised unit in the hospital apparently.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 7:45 pm
 dazh
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It might happen but preferably political, social and environmental change would preferably not be driven by suffering.

Ha! And people say I'm a naive idealist.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 7:58 pm
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Actual scientific research is now available free

https://www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/campaigns/coronavirus

Personally, I am not too concerned if I catch this virus. However i'll be taking Acillin supplements as its antiviral and it might prevent infection.

To quote the BBC yesterday, 'To put this into context, about one billion people catch infulenza every year with between 290,000 and 650,000 deaths.'


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 8:01 pm
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Personally, I am not too concerned if I catch this virus. However i’ll be taking Acillin supplements as its antiviral and it might prevent infection.

To quote the BBC yesterday, ‘To put this into context, about one billion people catch infulenza every year with between 290,000 and 650,000 deaths.’

Thats a pretty low mortality % rate.
Coronovirus is currently running at about 6% mortality.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 8:23 pm
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I'm finding it mildly amusing that on the one hand we are being told 0.16% is fantastic re. a US trade deal and on the other that the corona virus mortality in the below 50's (0.4%) is statically irrelevant (I know which I believe!)

Local primary school headteacher is apparently now in isolation. Picking up child from nursery today there was a strong sniff of disinfectant and a huge bottle of hand sanitizer by the door.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 8:29 pm
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confirmed case at a TV studio in Maidstone. It was reported in the local rag that all the builders working on a housing development next door immediately went home for the foreseeable,

That’s the case I’m referring to- the studio is the other side of the nature reserve behind my back garden. I was walking my dog past it at the weekend. Cough cough!

2nd claim to infamy, the brickie is a subbie working for my employer! Any excuse to skive off. Shows how much they get paid to down tools so quickly!

3rd claim- my son’s pa has a friend that works in the office where the infected person works!


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 8:37 pm
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Perfect opportunity for any savvy kid to get a couple of weeks off school
Muuuuum, my throats really really really sore and Jimmy’s dad’s brothers cousin went skiing in Italy 2 weeks ago

Why are kids still expected at school? (seriously)
effect on economy, minimal
effect on transmission, huge

sounds like a no brainer to me?


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 8:44 pm
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Kids are too wrapped in cotton wool these days, close the schools and let them look after themselves all day while parents/guardians earn a living. 😉


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 8:52 pm
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dazh

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Next time she offers me some information based on her experience I’ll tell her she’s a thicko and should already have known.

Bit harsher than I would suggest. But I guess you know her best.

The looming social care crisis has been well reported for a number of years now. I am surprised that even those not working in the sector wouldnt know this.
If a carer gets coronavirus then I would expect that the whole care agency gets closed down for 2-3 weeks ... add to that the social workers, district nurses, support workers etc who also visit the service users the carer had been in contact with. All these social/health care workers are overstretched with their case loads anyways - no chance of another team easily picking these up. So it really doesnt take much cognitive ability to see what problems this creates.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 8:53 pm
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So it really doesnt take much cognitive ability to see what problems this creates.

As you’ve aptly demonstrated.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:02 pm
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More than 99% of 1,618 NHS medics questioned appear not to agree with the assurances given by Boris Johnson that the service will cope if it is hit by a surge in the number of people falling ill.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/02/coronavirus-just-eight-out-of-1600-doctors-in-poll-say-nhs-is-ready?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboar d">From here

Good luck!


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:11 pm
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Someone with the virus visited Vodafone newbury, now people being asked to work from home, very close to my work!


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:18 pm
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I’m finding it mildly amusing that on the one hand we are being told 0.16% is fantastic re. a US trade deal and on the other that the corona virus mortality in the below 50’s (0.4%) is statically irrelevant (I know which I believe!)

The stats might have something with not spooking the public. When they talk in terms of 60%+ infection rates and 4 out of 5 people will have no issue that's a bit of a concern. 20% of 60% is a lot of people. Makes you wonder about what is the right approach keep calm and keep Borising on might keep things calm but it might not get people to take the need for the little things seriously. It's just down to luck as much as hygiene.

An example: In a super market today, cakes and bread just as you walk in. First person walks in walks past looking at the tasty cakes then coughs in their general direction. Atleast they then thought to put their sleeve up but the horse had already bolted. Next person walks in touching eyes and mouth. Walks over and picks up a loaf of bread, puts it in there shopping bag. So far so good, then they re stack an adjacent loaf to take the place of the one they removed. It's then just what's the chance of...

Be interesting to see what the government approach will be but at the moment happy birth day seems a little like sticking fingers in the ears and going la la la.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:23 pm
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I phoned up my GP today to request a prescription repeat. I was told to come in as usual and fill out the form.
"But wouldn't it be better to send it direct to the chemist?"
"Oh no, we're perfectly safe. We're all here and following government guidelines. we were deep cleansed last week."
"But you'are essential workers. I'm not, and shouldn't you be discouraging people from visiting the surgery for unnecessary reasons?"
"oh no, there's no reason for that".
This surgery was the first in the Uk to have a Coronavirus case who hasn't been outside the UK, and they're carrying on as normal, seemingly oblivious to precautions they could be taking...


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:28 pm
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deadlydarcy

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If I had the two million pounds, I’d build a small coliseum where my pupils could watch local state school children get run over by bull-bar equipped Range Rover Velars.

What is it with STW nowadays, this place used to be a light hearted fun place; now its just dark with hate filled scum bags expressing their feeble minded evil views/opinions.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:41 pm
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@FB-ATB

That’s the case I’m referring to- the studio is the other side of the nature reserve behind my back garden. I was walking my dog past it at the weekend. Cough cough!

Ah, Vinters Park, you lucky devil. Lovely around there. Virus issue excluded at the moment obviously.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:46 pm
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To be fair, Darcy's always been evil. And deadly. He ate my hamster once.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 9:50 pm
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What is it with STW nowadays, this place used to be a light hearted fun place; now its just dark with hate filled scum bags expressing their feeble minded evil views/opinions.

Seems fun enough.

The brexiteers all flounced.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 10:46 pm
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Why are kids still expected at school? (seriously)
effect on economy, minimal
effect on transmission, huge

sounds like a no brainer to me?

@stevextc - you realise that they can’t be home alone, right? So that’s one adult, off work for however long the kid is off. They won’t get paid for that, so that’s tax revenue, then VAT on whatever they’d have bought, but now can’t afford * 14m people. That’s a massive economic hit.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 10:55 pm
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@scaredypants https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18274148.coronavirus-across-hampshire-everything-know-far/

Romsey surgery shut and some kids sent home from school.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 11:11 pm
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Yeah, surgery in Romsey was shut after a potential case turned up there but AFAIK the pt tested negative
Similarly, the school in Romsey sent a few kids home as a precaution

I'm pretty certain that no positives have YET been found in the Southampton area


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 11:20 pm
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@FB-ATB

That’s the case I’m referring to- the studio is the other side of the nature reserve behind my back garden. I was walking my dog past it at the weekend. Cough cough!

Ah, Vinters Park, you lucky devil. Lovely around there. Virus issue excluded at the moment obviously.

Sometimes walk my dog in the reserve. She likes barking at the ducks. 🙄


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 11:26 pm
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now its just dark with hate filled scum bags expressing their feeble minded evil views/opinions.

U ok Hun?

Don’t be so hard on yourself sweetz. 😘


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 11:27 pm
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@ tenfoot

Love Vinters in the Summer. It's like a hidden oasis.

Sorry to take thread off topic guys.


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 11:28 pm
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Too soon?


 
Posted : 02/03/2020 11:45 pm
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Thats a pretty low mortality % rate.
Coronovirus is currently running at about 6% mortality.

No it's not...best quess estimate from most reputablw sources reckon it's less than half that.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 12:01 am
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Daffy mentioned you in a status update:

"Why are kids still expected at school? (seriously)
effect on economy, minimal
effect on transmission, huge

sounds like a no brainer to me?

@stevextc – you realise that they can’t be home alone, right? So that’s one adult, off work for however long the kid is off. They won’t get paid for that, so that’s tax revenue, then VAT on whatever they’d have bought, but now can’t afford * 14m people. That’s a massive economic hit."

Assuming neither parent or grandparent or ... is at home either working from home or sent home
This seems like a fairly small economic hit compared to doing nothing then quarantining whole towns/cities/workplaces.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 12:20 am
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Dont wish to be a heartless git but actually the death rate is of little concern to the government of this country or any other country.

The problem with covid19 is the infection/isolation rate i e at a 10% of the population infection rate say around 6m people the whole UK infrastructure will start to creak and then public confidence will collapse and we all decide to become "shut ins" then the domino effect kicks in...

After 5 days of the above i will be able to sell my Baked Bean mountain for serious profit.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 12:57 am
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To add some context to what you lot (i.e. still in the UK) will face coming from someone who is currently in it here in Honkers.
If you can work from home, great, you should be able to get paid for the 2-3 months the hysteria will sweep through closing every office or workshop.
Those affected the worst are the tradesman and construction works who not only got got stuck in their hometowns during Chinese New Year but when they were finally allowed to leave now had to quarantine themselves for another 2 weeks before they can go into work, thats if they find out and complete all the associated paperwork that goes with this.
HK which is a densely packed breeding ground for all sorts of bugs and diseases has had 2 deaths so far out of 7 million, one very old person and another youngish guy with existing health issues.
Chances are if you are feeling rundown, sore throat etc, you may well have it and its just not affecting you, I know I have just come out of a 3 week period of sore throat, tired limbs, generally cold feeling but its flu season, so its probably that.
There will be phases of panic buying as internet rumors talk of panic buying, general causing panic buying. We have had supermarket chains here having to release videos showing warehouses full of rice and toilet paper just to try and calm people down, imagine that, shops trying to slow down the buying of goods as it was just getting ridiculous, after all, you still need to transport it from A to B and that is when the shelves appear empty, causing more mass panic buying elsewhere when videos or pics of empty shelves start popping up again!
Note, I had a fridge delivered last week, bar the guys delivering it wearing mask and being especially careful around our apartment they were working as per normal.
All the schools are closed, have been for a while, but the streets are not full of kids as they all get work set online, all my teacher friends are reporting that they are busy, creating content for online distribution or generally chatting to pupils via Hangouts etc trying to ensure the curriculum carries on. I would hope the UK education system should be able to do what we do here, and as is done elsewhere in Asia?
If anything, this is a great way to catch up on good hygiene practices and as I have mentioned before, with the factories closed across the border its never been a better time to get out and enjoy the cleanish air.
The kids have started rioting again also, so I guess that means the initial panic is over.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 1:12 am
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Dont wish to be a heartless git but actually the death rate is of little concern to the government of this country or any other country.

Grandparents are considered to be important in China, that's some of the reason why they shat themselves and shut half the country - the working population rely on grandparents to look after children.

The disposability of old people is a very western thing because children are encouraged to piss off and be totally independent from their parents at age 18.

And anything that kills 10 percent of pensioners, invariably means huge strains on the health service. So yes, governments do care about the death rate - just maybe not Cummings' government.

I would hope the UK education system should be able to do what we do here, and as is done elsewhere in Asia?


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 1:14 am
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Have a little consideration for T1 diabetics. We are not going to have good year. Cancelled my holiday already. Working through the I.T wrinkles of working from home and updating my will.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 3:35 am
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Now here's some decisive leadership:

North Korea's first confirmed Coronavirus COVID 19 patient shot dead


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 1:02 pm
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Now here’s some decisive leadership:

North Korea’s first confirmed Coronavirus COVID 19 patient shot dead

Well it'd help motivate the shirky shirkers to get out of their dressing gowns and go to work even though they have a sniffle and a hurty throat.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 1:12 pm
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Now here’s some decisive leadership:

North Korea’s first confirmed Coronavirus COVID 19 patient shot dead

That'll teach him to get COVID 19 and serve as a valuable lesson to the rest of the population.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 1:15 pm
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and serve as a valuable lesson to the rest of the population.

Will guarantee that case numbers stay at 1 in the glorious People's Democratic Republic of Korea.

ANOTHER VICTORY FOR OUR SUPREME LEADER!

As a bonus, also means Korea will soar to triumph in the case fatality percentage table. No-one is going to beat our 100% record.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 1:20 pm
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Going to Eurodisney at the start of April, Jam packed with 40,000 + kids and parents from all over Europe and beyond all hugging Mickey Mouse et al. What could possibly go wrong?

We are going in two weeks time.
Thoughts are alternating between "bugger, that's not happening" and "woo yay, shorter queues"


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 2:20 pm
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just (as in today!) confirmed the bulk of my work for this year. Most starts mid May and then pretty much solid until October. Brilliant, feet up until then 🙂

except... I work as a spark on events and festivals, got a feeling i need a plan B*

*actually plan c, plan B would of been working on outside broadcast at big sporting events!


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 4:57 pm
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Trying to work out if my trip to Majorca end of March is worth going to. Seems a bit daft spending a week cycling to get in some early season fitness, only to lose it all again when I catch the lurgy on the plane and spend 3 weeks on my return coughing up my lungs

What happens if I fell Ill while out there? As in who pays for the 3 week's I'm stuck in the appartment (or alternative accommodation) assuming they wouldn't let me just jump on a plane home..does insurance cover that..if so I better get some.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:09 pm
 Drac
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does insurance cover that..if so I better get some.

Get some anyway it’s daft not to.

North Korea’s first confirmed Coronavirus COVID 19 patient shot dead

Well some on here will see that has fair.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:13 pm
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Well some on here will see that has fair

It's been a while so I accept things may have changed but when I was a lad you shot balloons or little tin targets at the fair.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:17 pm
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What is it with STW nowadays, this place used to be a light hearted fun place; now its just dark with hate filled scum bags expressing their feeble minded evil views/opinions.

I mean, if you can't have fun on the coronavirus thread, where can you have fun?


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:22 pm
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I feel like countries around the world with 20 confirmed cases are panicking a lot more than us... I'm in Italy... we have over 2000 cases currently... Feels like people start to find it normal around here honestly


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:31 pm
 Drac
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It’s been a while so I accept things may have changed but when I was a lad you shot balloons or little tin targets at the fair.

😂🤦🏻‍♂️


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:36 pm
 Drac
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I feel like countries around the world with 20 confirmed cases are panicking a lot more than us…

Nah! There’s a few people panicking the rest are just getting on with it.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:38 pm
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I feel like countries around the world with 20 confirmed cases are panicking a lot more than us… I’m in Italy… we have over 2000 cases currently… Feels like people start to find it normal around here honestly

It's Italy, its not that people are finding it normal they've just not got round to panicking yet. Let's face it it takes so long for things to happen Marcus Brutus is only just due to start his trial for regicide next week.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 5:56 pm
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My local chemisty type shop still has plenty of alcohol hand gel for 50p small bottle 50ml, £1.99 large 250ml bottle, then again we don't seem to have many panicking idiots in this area (galloway), perhaps i should buy it all and list it on eBay?


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 7:01 pm
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My local chemisty type shop still has plenty of alcohol hand gel for 50p small bottle 50ml, £1.99 large 250ml bottle, then again we don’t seem to have many panicking idiots in this area (galloway)

If every individual who lives near the shop buys a bottle of alcohol hand gel (non-panickingly, to allow them to follow sensible WHO and government advice) the shop would run out of stock.

Would that make all of the people who live near the shop in Galloway idiots?


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 7:29 pm
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[replying to really old post as the forum glitches to the penultimate page?]


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 8:14 pm
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Scotlandshire ?
White Lightening Cider will probably kill the Covid Virus 8% alcohol , and a ph of probably 3.5 - 3.6 may denature or even kill a teeny tiny .2micron bug
At least when the forthcoming epidemic fails to materialise you can get hammered safe in the knowledge that you havent wasted money on enough alcohol gel to last 5 years , and snakebite and black takes the edge of nicely


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 8:15 pm
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we're all going to get it at some point, it's out and about now.

my work has banned all international travel.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 8:28 pm
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^^ Hopefully not all.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 9:03 pm
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I had to research what the different nations approaches are to the Northern Italy outbreak today for holidays in the next month. The official advice runs from America "don't go to Italy, you'll die" (essential travel only), through Canada "no travel to N. Italy, it's not safe, Australia 'she'll be right mate just wash your hands"and then New Zealand "there's a problem in Italy, what are you worrying about?"

Uk advice is stay away from the 10 Lombardy villages & 1 Veneto one on quarantine.

There's going to be a load of cheap Italian holidays available this year. Go catch a virus in 5 star Venetian luxury!


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 9:20 pm
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My son's T1, but because he is 19, thinks he is invincible. If he get's ill, it will be us monitoring blood sugars very regularly as illness it quite tricky with T1, you never know if it's going to be a high or a low. Low being quite deadly quickly, high being very damaging if not back down. He's not very good with basic hygeine as it is.

Fortunately he, and us could work from home. I'm not concerned for me, but more the fact that if care workers are ill, MIL is in a nursing home, and she's unlikely to survive even the flu - all of us with any illness kept well clear of her before Christmas (stayed outside her room - so at least we could say hello). Not sure how my folks would cope, both 70's, mum ex smoker, which isn't great.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 9:38 pm
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Same boat here. I mean to say, it's family members I'm worried about. I'm well enough and not that old. My son and his partner having a baby this weekend coming, being induced. That said, they are young and child motility seems very low.

However I care for my 90 year old mother and I'm very concerned about her.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 9:51 pm
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I'm still not convinced the message is pitched right - carry on as normal means different things to different people. Although the you will experience minor disruption and will have to live with more diligence and thought isnt a snappy message. Maybe be kind wash your hands.

PM's take on things was classic - my fake news take is they have been schooling him all weekend in how to get the right message out (In a Baby Groot / Guardians of the Galaxy way). That's why they had to wait until Tuesday to release the official line.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 9:52 pm
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We've got a small bottle of alcohol hand gel off to the side near the main entrance at work - this is a massive academic building, and I only saw it as I left work and looked for it as a circular said we had got 'stations' for it. A small table with a little bottle and a tiny sign isn't obvious... Oh well.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 9:57 pm
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Thinking oh well 80% of people will be ok isnt really a good starting point. There's 20% who aren't and it's about trying to protect those who are at greater risk.

I'm just pro things being more in your face - changes to people's world that hit home the you need to be doing some different things now.

I guess there must be models for incident response that show what happens right and wrong at any particular stage. Be interesting to see if we are learning and doing things right of we are in some classic underplaying stage - the yes we have a problem but we haven't got a handle yet / the guidance has yet to catch up. It feels a bit like the carpet and chemical stage of foot and mouth biosecurity - doing something but it wasn't the right thing. For those going what the fxxx you on about - the protection was put out an old strip of carpet across the farm gate and drench it in a chemical. The chemical washed off, the strips didn't cover on full rotation of the wheel... Took a while to get to the wheel baths and pressure washer stage of biosecurity, which was when it started to dent transmission.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 10:10 pm
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The attitude of presenteeism in the work place is slightly concerning.

Loads of people with 'colds' at the moment.

I'm fairly sure I could survive but my nans 95, so I'm not visiting her for a while just incase.

I think there's no question this will be a serious issue in the UK for the most vulnerable considering a lot of people think themselves heroes for not taking a few sick days.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 11:08 pm
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WHO are saying it's less contagious than normal flu (albeit far more lethal)

If that's the case then why are we hearing 80% of population will get it, with 20% of workforce off sick. Flu doesn't impact anywhere near those numbers every year does it? Appreciate old foks are encouraged to get the flu vaccine, but I've never had it and never (touch wood) contracted flu in 43 years.

Lots of conflicting info..


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 11:46 pm
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Lots of blind panicking and media spin.

Have you not read the daily mail recently?

Truth is we don't really know as we can't trust news sources too much.

And our clown of a PM only issues the odd sound byte.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 11:54 pm
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If that’s the case then why are we hearing 80% of population will get it, with 20% of workforce off sick.

Flu is already endemic. Ok so it changes each year, but only a bit so we all have some immunity to the new strain, and probably to existing strains. Covid-19 is new so no-one has had it already, so we could all get it within the space of a few months.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 11:57 pm
 Drac
Posts: 50577
 

WHO are saying it’s less contagious than normal flu (albeit far more lethal)

If that’s the case then why are we hearing 80% of population will get it, with 20% of workforce off sick. Flu doesn’t impact anywhere near those numbers every year does it? Appreciate old foks are encouraged to get the flu vaccine, but I’ve never had it and never (touch wood) contracted flu in 43 years.

Lots of conflicting info..

Flu has a rapid onset, flu is most contagious after onset around 3 or 4 days after symptoms is it’s peak, full blown flu you ain’t leaving your bed Let alone your house, the flu vaccine is given to the vulnerable, health workers and many others.

Covid 19 is a gradual onset, it’s contagious pretty much straight away long before symptoms start and for at least 2 weeks if not longer, there is no vaccine to bring in herd immunity.

I’m 47 I’ve had flu and it wrecked me I was 24 at the time and very fit, I spent a month in the house the only contact was my Mrs who followed infection controls so she didn’t spread it.

Truth is we don’t really know as we can’t trust news sources too much.

Luckily we have PHE and the NHS.


 
Posted : 03/03/2020 11:59 pm
Posts: 149
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Not concerned of the virus here, though wife and I, like many of the regulars on here are in the category which really starts to have ‘not so good odds’. It’s more the impact it will have on companies, especially small ones and the self employed, so much is marginal these days.
Hope it’s not as bit as the flu a couple of years ago, that almost wrote me off, metaphorically and medically. Heard one person saying for most people, not that bad at all.


 
Posted : 04/03/2020 12:02 am
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The attitude of presenteeism in the work place is slightly concerning.

Depends on the workplace - if you're somewhere that will discuss your attendance if you take a day off then it deters being off. There's employment law and then there's real life - the two don't always overlap and there's nothing like loosing a job to make it difficult to get a job. So it's not always heroism it can be fear.


 
Posted : 04/03/2020 12:04 am
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tpbiker
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WHO are saying it’s less contagious than normal flu (albeit far more lethal)

Are they ?? Most of the stuff I've read puts the coronavirus R0 at about 2-3, while for 'flu it's usually under 1.5

Granted, nobody knows the true nature or numbers of the initial Chinese outbreak but I don't think anyone can yet say it's less contagious - and looking at, say, Italy, something interesting is happening. What our societal behaviour does to modify that R0 is what matters.

Just seen this - numbers from the US that might help modify the estimates of R0:

Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons (range = 1–201 persons per case) who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified. Nineteen (4%) of the 445 contacts were members of a patient’s household, and five of these 19 contacts continued to have household exposure to the patient with confirmed COVID-19 during the patient’s isolation period; 104 (23%) were community members who spent at least 10 minutes within 6 feet of a patient with confirmed disease; 100 (22%) were community members who were exposed** to a patient in a health care setting; and 222 (50%) were health care personnel.††

Active symptom monitoring of the 445 close contacts, consisting of daily telephone, text, or in-person inquiries about fever or other symptoms for 14 days following the last known exposure to a person with confirmed COVID-19, was conducted by local health jurisdictions. During the 14 days of active symptom monitoring, 54 (12%) close contacts developed new or worsening symptoms deemed by local public health authorities to be concerning for COVID-19 and were thus considered persons under investigation (PUIs)§§ and subsequently were tested for SARS-CoV-2. Two persons who were household members of patients with confirmed COVID-19 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. This yielded a symptomatic secondary attack rate of 0.45% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.12%–1.6%) among all close contacts,¶¶ and a symptomatic secondary attack rate of 10.5% (95% CI = 2.9%–31.4%) among household members. Both persons with confirmed secondary transmission had close contact with the respective source patient before COVID-19 was confirmed and were isolated from the source patient after the patient’s COVID-19 diagnosis.

No other close contacts who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 had a positive test, including the five household members who were continuously exposed during the period of isolation of their household member with confirmed COVID-19. An additional 146 persons exposed to the two patients with secondary COVID-19 transmission underwent 14 days of active monitoring. Among these, 18 (12%) developed symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and were considered PUIs. All tested negative, and no further symptomatic COVID-19 cases (representing tertiary transmission) have been identified.

(shame they only tested symptomatic contacts)


 
Posted : 04/03/2020 12:10 am
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Picked this up from the worldometer site -
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Interesting remarks about asymptomatic transmission and death rates

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."

Source: Vox Interview


 
Posted : 04/03/2020 8:18 am
Posts: 25926
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sorry, just testing


 
Posted : 04/03/2020 9:33 am
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