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Yes, this exactly. Which is why, ducks notwithstanding, I’m keen to see why the government is so certain it was Russia / getting someone like OPCW to confirm it
Getting the OPCW to confirm it will be being done partly to put the naysayers to rest. However, 5 of our allies have just come out and said it as well. I think we will have passed on our intelligence to them and that is likely the reason they have now decided to call out Russia.
You don't just send a highly toxic compound by air freighter overnight to the OPCW, as others have said, they come to you.
"Hello Netherlands, this is the UK speaking - we'll be sending a highly lethal chemical weapon to your country tonight so the boys at the OCPW can have a look. The sample will be landing at 9am, I'm sure your posties will be fine with that......"
You get the drift yet?
Edit: May is now getting absolutely hammered on Europe 1, after an analysis of her weak possition as PM she is being accused of hypocrisy for covering up cases as home secretary she is now reopening as PM. She’s a laughing stock. And all this is the context of Brexit in which May has already irritated many of her best allies
Our complaints about the Polonium incident in 2006 fell on deaf ears in the EU as well, in fact it has been argued that European pressure is partly what caused May to back down on the inquiry in the first place. Whilst they accuse the British of bringing this on themselves because of the city harbouring Russian crooks (who are often dissidents), they suck up to Russia for trade and gas themselves. Whilst Europe pretty much sneers and turns a blind eye to the fact that their security has been and still is, guaranteed by the Anglosphere.
You just have to ask yourself who is presently sat back laughing his tits off (probably in a suitably bond villain manner) and congratulating himself that this couldn't possibly have gone any better. Message suitably delivered to anyone thinking of going off-message and a nice stand-off with the west engineered to boot, 3 days in front of elections
As Alan would say... "BACK OF THE NET!"
It isn't a conspiracy. Its not mossad. It is exactly what it seems. Putins KGB henchmen have just bumped someone else off using some nerve agent they happen to have.
If you're seriously considering any option other than that then you really need to take your tinfoil helmet off and consider leaving the bedroom at your mums house for once. Or at least draw the curtains.
And Corbyn, et al. FFS! The Russians openly referred to people like him - in fact specifically him - as 'useful idiots' during there cold war. He's not learnt much in the intervening years, has he?
you'd hope ryanwomble
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/may/27/pentagon-live-anthrax-accident 😎
That's the Americans for you, they lose nuclear weapons as well.
I think that's probably the case too. And I haven't ever really doubted that it was Russia (insert ducks statement again) or if not them possibly a rogue element with Russian material - but if you look at motive, means and opportunity it's very quacky.
It's just the haste with which we've been judge, jury and executioner, with sentence passed and bags being packed on a say-so, looks a bit desperate, some might say amateurish. Just say - it's a nerve agent of the type developed by the Soviets in the 70's and once we have clarity on the source and route as required / provided by the OPCW we will act accordingly.
Of course even if we had ALL the data and published it there would still be some that would claim it was a sample acquired by a real life 007 type on a raid on the Kremlin back in the 70's (including escaping from a 7'6" henchman in a speedboat up the Moskva whilst shagging Brezhnev's private secretary) but that's the great thing about conspiracies - the more florid the better.
You don’t just send a highly toxic compound by air freighter overnight to the OPCW, as others have said, they come to you.
I know, I'm not arguing with you. I can barely get someone to take a sample of a haircare polymer in ethanol nowadays because it's flammable. It'd certainly be cheaper to pay a bloke in a dinner suit to take it by Aston Martin.
If they could just get a shift on though.....
"in fact it has been argued that European pressure is partly what caused May to back down on the inquiry in the first place."
Theresa Mays letter to the corroner cited 'diplomatic concerns, costs-in a time of austerity- & length of time' as to why she didnt want an inquiry
The letter was published by the inquest team on the day David Cameron described the Russian president, Vladimir Putin as his “new friend”.
The Prime Minister appeared on BBC Radio’s Test Match Special during a visit to Lords cricket ground for the second Ashes test between England and Australia.
He joked that he might try to teach "my new friend Vladimir Putin", to play cricket, after he was offered a trip "down-hill skiing" on a recent visit to Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/19/litvinenko-inquiry-request-rejected-russia
May won't ultimately do a damn thing this time either. Because pretty much all the property in the posher parts of central London is owned by Putins mates and the City is absolutely awash with all their dirty money being laundered.
This is just making it look like she's doing something. Wait for all to blow over, the Russian diplomats all return and its business as usual, and the gravy train keeps rolling on
The EU didn't go along with the UK last time because they know this full well, and its a case of 'well you made your bed.....'
It can't be that difficult to smuggle in Nerve Agent. Just put it in a jiffy bag and ask Simon Cope to fly in with it.
Porton don’t deny having chemical weapon stocks, it’s on their website! As people are pointing out with increasing weariness, research stocks that’s not the same thing as having the capability and intent to use them as weapons
But the capability of replication is there and understood.. So any government worth thier own backside would initiate a diagnostic experiment on the what/how to/replicate just in case it would be needed.
We are all aware that in the 21st and into the 22nd century wars won’t be fought by blokes with guns, that’s too costly to both sides, it’ll be fought with mass destruction weapons and intelligence infrastructure and network meltdowns.. So weapons of the chemical kind would be needed, if not developed by any government...
Just because a “treaty” agreeing to ban/dispose of them was signed makes for last nights DailyWhail headline... forgotten and used for bedding in a budgies cage.
My POV is this government should be committed to understand and replicate all unknown toxins and their capability to be used as weapons against humans. Two fold here, one that we know and understand the capability and two that we understand the sheer decimation that something of this caliber is capable of.
If a full attack of chemical weapons was to hit the U.K. (pure speculation here) the U.K. would naturally be for retaliation. Fighting chemical weapons with an aircraft carrier with no planes on is only conceived by imbeciles, those chemical weapons that the U.K. has the capability of replication would be the only option available, or waving a white flag make out of the last white lab coat unaffected.
May has done something...she's expelled 23 spies, which is significantly higher proportion than we ever expelled during the cold war. This will hurt Russia more than doing anything financial as it takes away key channels of Russian intelligence network which is of much greater value to Russia than a handful of billions of dollars to insanely rich oligarchs. OK it's not going to disable the Russian machine in any way, but is enough of a sting. But other than that it is a small gesture and without support from other nations we're not going to be able to do anything serious....and we probably don't want to. We still want to have relations with Russia, we don't want to cut them off, we want to send a message that this sort of behaviour is unacceptable. Anyway, it'll all settle down over time.
The EU has its fair share of soviet spies too, but Putin is not targeting them because he will get no benefit from it. He looks more powerful rattling our cage than rattling the EU's. That's why he sends his jets into our airspace and not the EU's. We're the old NATO power, the old enemy, the ones that will stand up and take action. No point in goading the EU cause they'll never do anything anyway.
People are nuts... the more I learn of human nature, the more I wonder what hope there is for our long term survival in the distorted world that's been created around us.
If a full attack of chemical weapons was to hit the U.K. (pure speculation here) the U.K. would naturally be for retaliation. Fighting chemical weapons with an aircraft carrier with no planes on is only conceived by imbeciles, those chemical weapons that the U.K. has the capability of replication would be the only option available, or waving a white flag make out of the last white lab coat unaffected.
Same as the US, it’s a WMD attack. Our response is potentially nuclear. Or conventional, depending on the scenario. Also it would invoke Article 5. It’s one of the things NATO and the Nuclear deterrent is supposed to deter!
I just think this.. if ever a proper attack was to hit this soil, or any other soil for that matter.. that a few scrawls on a bit of paper that declared “back in another era” that no country would use WMD of any kind is completely worthless.. and to be used as a guide only 🤷♂️💥☄️
The real solution is to clone the planet and ditch all the war mongering knobends, whatever their creed, colour or politics...
May has done something…she’s expelled 23 spies
No she hasn't. She's expelled 23 staff at the Russian embassy. This isn't James Bond. The James Bond types are out there bumping people off with impunity
We’re the old NATO power, the old enemy, the ones that will stand up and take action
Seriously? Like not sending any senior cabinet members to the world cup. Take that!!
That’s why he sends his jets into our airspace and not the EU’s.
You do know that's bollocks, yeah?
Kimbers, "diplomatic concerns" says it all, she didn't have the backing of the Germans or Frrnch.
The Europeans turning around and laughing at us in the news has nothing to do with any way that we have encouraged this to a greater extent than the EU and everything to do with spitefullness and a lack of willingness to upset Russia.
They are also obseased with the idea that trade and interconnectedness can keep a country like Russia in check, I think time will prove them wrong.
When it comes to Russia, Patton had the right idea.
The EU are laughing at us because we invited State Sponsored Russian Gangsters to come and launder all their blood-soaked dirty money through the City of London, no questions asked.
Then we act all surprised when shit like this happens.
it happened here, and not in Frankfurt or Marseille for very good reason, despite May saying it ‘could happen anywhere.
Well, yes.... it could, but it’s highly unlikely. It happened here because here is where the Russians have outsourced all their dodgy shit too, with the full complicity of British institutions
And you don't think Deutsche Bank would be doing ecactly the same if those operations were based in Berlin?
I take issue with "full complicity" as well, that shows a complete disregard for how hard it is to actually track and action dirty money. Whilst it's the Europeans who want us to actually ease the sanctions on Russia that go along way to halting a lot of it. Italy for example, is utterly awash with dirty Russian interests.
If you handn't noticed, neither this or the 2006 incident had anything to do with dirtg money.
May has done something…she’s expelled 23 spies
No she hasn’t. She’s expelled 23 staff at the Russian embassy.
This is the truth. He speaketh the truth.
23 staff could mean 19 cleaners, 2 secretaries, the bloke who cleans shoes and a third tier document filing clerk.
We don’t know who these people are, frankly I’m not interested.. but a clear statement of the grade and intelligence level of the expulsions would allay any speculation .. eh MayBot..
G’wan.. tell us who they are or at least tell the WhailingDaily so you can suck up to your right wing nutjobs.
Cleaners aren't diplomats. Put away your tin foil hat. Those being expelled have been notified directly. It's not 23 randoms.
Interesting that BBC news has just realised there’s a conflict going on in Syria. They’re showing the Russian/Assad shelling of civilians
Its only usually channel 4 news that bothers to cover it.
scotroutes
Subscriber
That’s why he sends his jets into our airspace and not the EU’s.You do know that’s bollocks, yeah?
I suspect it’s more an accident of geography than a deliberate policy.
I suspect it's more to do with all those American airbases in Germany
They even bother the naughty Netherlands
https://nltimes.nl/2018/01/15/russian-bombers-intercepted-belgian-jets-netherlands
Sols-bury is correct imo. Do you also say Oarstralia?
Of course I say Ostralia, but there's no AU in Salisbury. ;P
neither this or the 2006 incident had anything to do with dirtg money.
Wasn't litvinenko investigating russian money laundering when he was killed?
So is hat where the DUP got their secret brexit money ? 😉
Al the stuff I can find on the origin of Syria's chemical wepons point to fabrication in the country in the 80s and then hoarding despite destruction programmes, Binners. I think that when you include Russia in the use of chemical shells I think you are wrong but as ever I'm happy to be proved wrong if you can link something to say the chemical shells were anything other than Syrian made and fired.
The Goutha Oriental offensive has reguarly on all the news channels I watch including Sky. I don't think there's been a news blackout but it seems that this is a good time to raise the profile of the reporting. The world has sat back and watched the masacre perhapos thinking the civil war is keeping the jihadists busy in their own back yard and anything that redices ISIS power can't be all bad. Russia taking on the main role in Syria has meant other states haven't had to get their hands as dirty.
Just back to the tracing of the compound, I’m still unsure this can be done unequivocally. Sure, only a very small amount is required to prove its chemical structure, and that’s probably available from samples taken from the scene. We can then hypothecate possible source on the basis of our presumed knowledge of the location of labs with the capability to produce it.
However, to forensically trace its source, you’re likely going to need a combination of the stable isotopic signatures of its elemental constituents, coupled with those of any metal impurities therein. On a few mg of sample you could conceivably get stable isotope signatures of any C, H, N, O, S (and perhaps halogens, but not P as it has no minor stable isotopes), but you’d be struggling to even get a trace element suite done with what’s left, never mind their isotopic signatures. Even if you did, all it takes is for the precursors to come from different places and you have an uninterpretable mix unless you have the exact same precursors to test.
It’s probably not impossible. But it would be one heck of an analytical challenge even if you had plenty of the sample to test, which they probably don’t.
I agree with the duck duck quack hypothesis. But that’s all it is. We can chemically prove it’s identy, but unequivocally chemically forensically proving its source is pretty unlikely.
What about things like leechables zokes? Labs and manufacturing plants have a habit of introducing various crap into the equation.
And lets say that this was a binary derived Novichok-7 that was used - that would put this firmly in Russias camp would it not? As it was developed in 1993, after the fall of the USSR.
https://cen.acs.org/articles/96/i12/Nerve-agent-attack-on-spy-used-Novichok-poison.html
I see Macron has implemented an appropriate level of sanctions. He won't be going to the Russian section at the book fair.
So, they are changing their tone before we make them look very foolish publicly through the OCPW?
Without wishing to appear thick, who are the "they" who are changing their tone?
Could it be a big mistake from May ?
The French Edukator, they called it fantasy politics or some such the other day.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/unlikely-that-vladimir-putin-behind-skripal-poisoning-1.3425736
Meanwhile, the Irish are saying we brought it on ourselves because we gave a genuine political dissident (although admittedly dodgy) political asylum. However, you didn't see the same victim blaming coming from them after the Bataclan attack which as we all know, was because the French were obviously giving refuge to some dodgy types as well.
Paris attackers had french passports , no need to seek refuge in france ............
In not sure that following due process, makes you look foolish?
The cen article is good, but surely it doesn't preclude that any nation with the formula & the right lab could combine the 2 binary agents?
As zokes says, it will surely come down to how much of the poison the gov have managed to acquire,
Im not sure they even know where the skirpals were actualy exposed, if they have enough to analyse it will require those trace compounds from synthesis to be able to point the finger, just the formula can't be conclusive ?
Paris attackers had french passports , no need to seek refuge in france
Wrong. Not all of them.
Edukator, the right lab is the important bit, along with the right people, your average chemist is not going to be able to make it without killing themselves and their colleagues. Then you need trained operators with the right delivery method, so the operators don't die at the scene.
ah yes , some were from belgium .
No, there was at least one Iraqi and some other unknowns.
What about things like leechables zokes? Labs and manufacturing plants have a habit of introducing various crap into the equation.
They do, and probably each plant for each precursor will have its own signature, and these would be combined when the final product is synthesised. However, you would still need a sizeable quantity of sample from the scene to test, which I just don't think they'd have access to. And you'd also need to know with certainty the leachables profile of the plants in question for those precurors.
They'd already have used quite a lot of it in various MS and NMR / IR specs (though the latter two can usually be non-destructive) to find out what it was they were actually dealing with. ICP-MS, as astonishingly sensitive as it is, would require quite a lot of sample in order to detect simple elemental ratios of any metal contaminants. If we assume something you could trace like Sr is present in the final product at 1 ppm, and you have 1 mg of the product to test, you'd only have 1 ng of Sr, and you have to remember that anything the sample touches (including reagents) in the testing lab will also leave some background.
Like I said, other sources of evidence appear to be quite strong: duck, quack, etc. But unless the lab has a few hundred mg of the sample to test, has an extensive library of its precursors and their characteristic contaminants and isotopic signatures from different sources to run any elemental or isotopic mixing models against, forensically proving where it is from from a chemical perspective is nigh on impossible. It's an interesting academic question.