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Look, I’m comfortable with it being probable that it’s Russia. It seems quite probable, and multiple lines of circumstantial evidence point to that. However, probable is all it is.
So, assuming that it was Russia, what’s the end game here? What does success look like? How do we get there? If none of that stacks up, then perhaps the do nothing option is the more appropriate pathway.
Ultimately, are any of the actions on the table currently remotely likely to prevent Russia from carrying on the way it has?
Ultimately, are any of the actions on the table currently remotely likely to prevent Russia from carrying on the way it has?
Ultimately, are any of the actions on the table currently remotely likely to prevent Russia from carrying on the way it has?
I am not sure anything we can do can stop them but i am not sure how the pretending it is not them doing it and doing nothing is going to be more successful. What would they need to do for you to act?
IMHO they endangered citizens of this country with the manner of the assignations. This is not something we can or should ignore. Will anything we do make Putin be a nice guy who plays by the rues - no but that is setting the bar a little high. If they want to act like NK then that is their choice but we need to treat them like NK rather than go it might not be them so lets do nothing and hope they stop.
what’s the end game here?
the end game is to destabilise the west, fracture alliances, sow discord, make us weaker, achieve russian strategic aims , have deniability and inwardly portray the west as against russia with only strong putin able to defend and protect the motherland . I dont think we can alter this but i dont think we can ignore it either. What we need is a unified approach to them from all the west.
So rather than do nothing and hope they stop, the idea is that we do something we know will achieve nothing, and then hope they stop.
Run that by me again.
So you can mis represent it again?
You seem to suggest we can ONLY do something if it will work and if wont we should do nothing. Perhaps you could expand on how you think doing nothing "works" an what "works" is ?
Speed limits dont stop speeding [ nor do laws prevent crimes] but that is not a reason to not have them.
There are no good options here but ignoring their actions is the worst choice. What would they need to do to make you act?
The interesting thing is, there’s not really much stopping us or anyone else behaving in that way either. We could probably off Russian agents in Russia if we wanted with a certain level of impunity.
Which I suppose in some respects leads us neatly back to the initial whodunnit question
To be fair, the Uk is floundering a little. Losing status in the world.. the whole brexit debacle. lily wristed beardie men like Corbyn been given credence etc.
Theresa May should just send one of the SAS lot out with a long distance rifle to lob a bullet into putin's skull... then say "Yeah, I ordered that and we did it. There ya go baby. Right, who wants a nice trade deal?"
Maybe not the Theresa we want, but maybe the Theresa we need?
Some of the commentators on that Craig Murray site would make JHJ blush...
So you can mis represent it again?
How did what I posted misrepresent this:
I dont think we can alter this but i dont think we can ignore it either.
It’s a vexing issue and no mistake, but given the choices appear to be either to do nothing, or to demonstrate the impotency of what little we can do, I’m going to take some convincing to accept that doing something for the sake of being seen to do something is a sensible approach.
That judgement was probably made by the UK’s most senior career intelligence officials (Joint Intelligence Committee?
Charles Blandford Farr, who heads the Joint Intelligence Committee has an interesting history...
There again, so does David Lidington...
lily wristed beardie men like Corbyn been given credence etc.
Yes. Damn him for suggesting that evidence is useful in proving guilt 🙄 I assume you also think he’s a Czech spy and a member of the IRA?
Frankly I’d rather Corbyn at this moment than the most hapless PM in living memory who thinks all her Christmases have come at once now she has somebody to rattle the sabres at and deflect attention from the absolute rank incompetence of her own leadership.
I hope appeasement works [ or is a more powerful statements to the russians] but I remain to be convinced.
I think you are setting the bar high if you think we can only act if we can be certain the actions will completely change Putins MO. Its setting the bar too high and a goal that can never be achieved .
I still fail to see how doing nothing sends a clear single to them - could you explain?
Doing nothing sends the signal that we can’t do anything.
Doing something that will have negligible impact also demonstrates this. I fail to see a material difference between these two scenarios.
And as both Napoleon and Hitler demonstrated at the opposite end of the spectrum, all out military invasion ultimately achieves nothing when it comes to Russia too.
Putin knows this, and he doesn’t care. We can either get our knickers in a twist and provide him the bonus of amusement, or do our best to ignore him.
As unsavoury as it is, that’s about the long and short of it.
Good article in today’s Guardian by Magaret Hodge
Never mind expelling diplomats and other such tokenism, what we should be doing is cracking down on the billions and billions of blood-stained Russian dirty money being laundered through the City of London. And not because Putin did or didnt bump somebody off, but just because the U.K. shouldnt really be facilitating that shit! It’s not like it benefits the country as a whole, economically. It’s not like anyone is paying any tax. So why let it carry on?
Of course, that is the one thing you can absolutely 100% guarantee will not happen. Too many of Theresa’s mates and Tory party doners with their snouts in that particular trough
do our best to ignore him
If you want to learn some lessons from history then learn that ignoring despots rarely turns out to be an effective strategy * . If putin knows there are no consequences is he
1) less likely to act
2) More likely to act
its not the hardest question to work out the answer to even if you think any response is impotent or tokenism.
* Comparing any action we might do to failed attempts to invade/conquer russia is strange and again setting the bar way too high.
So why let it carry on?
Would guess that there are tories and tory supporters who are gaining from it.
Never mind expelling diplomats and other such tokenism, what we should be doing is cracking down on the billions and billions of blood-stained Russian dirty money being laundered through the City of London.
Isn't that what Corbyn and McDonnell are suggesting by way of the Magnitsky Act?
@junkyard: So we should act simply to save face, even though we know it will have no impact?
You appear to have made up your mind here, I'm just a bit baffled as to why. There is nothing we can do here that will have one iota of an effect. As such, why do it? Why take an action that has no impact? It won't punish Putin, and it sure as hell won't discourage him. And all the while we talk about it, and ignore the mess that May is making at home.
By the way, it was you that jeered at the idea of appeasement - a term most frequently associated with Chamberlain's reticence to go to war vs Churchill's bloodlust. Fact remains, there is little, short of a successful regime change, that will alter how Putin conducts his foreign policy. More broadly, I'd say history was fairly split on the success of toppling vs ignoring tyrants.
And there we have it: England 23 - 23 Russia.
Do we expel 23 more and hope it has the desired effect this time, or do we hope for a convincing winner in injury time to make it 24-23?
EDIT: Ooooh, the dirty scumbags have closed a consulate and booted out the British Council. Surely that's a yellow card?
There is nothing we can do here that will have one iota of an effect.
Pretty much my take on it. Military action is of course out of the question, anyone suggesting otherwise must have suicidal tendencies. The only options open are symbolic actions. Expelling all russian billionaires (they're not all in exile) from the country and freezing Russian assets would have an impact, as would leading a call for an international boycott of the World Cup. Of course they won't do that, it's easier to talk hard on the telly and not do anything.
So we should act simply to save face, even though we know it will have no impact?
You are bright stop doing this- I have repeated the question to you numerous times for you to answer, Its clear why we sometimes act even though it wont be 100% effective just as its clear do nothing is less effective than doing something[ even if its not 100% effective]. none of this is controversial or refutable hence you wont directly engage with the questions.
There is nothing we can do here that will have one iota of an effect.
False plenty we will do can have an effect it just wont "stop" him whatever that means.
It won’t punish Putin, and it sure as hell won’t discourage him.
Premise is false conclusion is false - again will it discourage him more than doing nothing - these are not hard questions you keep ignoring
And all the while we talk about it, and ignore the mess that May is making at home.
Whabouterry and its possible to both tackle putin and deal with the mess may is making. its not either or.
Well well well – it appears that the Porton down scientists have NOT been able to identify this as russian manufacture but where pressured into saying
““Of a type developed by Russia”. Note developed, not made, produced or manufactured.”
No ones claiming proof that they manufactured it there, but considering that there are 100's of potential Novichok substances, a non-state actor or another state would first have to find out the exact compound Russia was using through espionage and then copy it.
Also, Junkyard is on a roll today. 😀
And as both Napoleon and Hitler demonstrated at the opposite end of the spectrum, all out military invasion ultimately achieves nothing when it comes to Russia too.
We could, ahem, send aid to the Ukraine in the form of anti-tank missiles etc
Also
Never mind expelling diplomats and other such tokenism, what we should be doing is cracking down on the billions and billions of blood-stained Russian dirty money being laundered through the City of London. And not because Putin did or didnt bump somebody off, but just because the U.K. shouldnt really be facilitating that shit!
Damned right
There is nothing we can do here that will have one iota of an effect.
Pretty much my take on it. Military action is of course out of the question, anyone suggesting otherwise must have suicidal tendencies. The only options open are symbolic actions. Expelling all russian billionaires (they’re not all in exile) from the country and freezing Russian assets would have an impact
I ask myself, "what would Putin do if he was in charge here?"
Answer might well include giving a non-lethal but scary dose of something to a couple of wealthy UK-based friends of Putin and then publicly hand-wringing and accusing the opposition of more naughtiness. Personally I don't believe this is what has already happened but I imagine it could, if we had a proper bastard in charge here.
Maggie would have known what to do:
You are bright stop doing this-
I’m sorry, I just don’t see the point in taking action for the sake of appearing to save face. Quite predictably, Putin has now expelled the same number of diplomats, then upped the ante by closing a consulate. Our action achieved nothing, and we’ve now lost even more credibility.
So now it’s our choice to retaliate and do something with more impact. And when we’ve done that, do we think a belligerent Putin will leave it at that?
This is the sole point i’m trying to make. Until someone can provide a credible view of what success looks like here, what the hell are we playing at? Pretty much every conceivable action we can take, Putin can retaliate in kind, just upping the ante ever so slightly. We freeze bank accounts, he cuts off the gas. We arm Ukraine, he arms one of the many countries we’re trying to fight this week.
I’m not being deliberately obtuse here, and I don’t find the conclusion that the UK is relatively powerless in this matter a pleasant one. But that’s all the facts point to for me, unless a credible pathway to success is proposed. Right now, nobody (here, or in Westminster) seems to be able to do that.
Going back to my comment on the first page, that they don't want us to like the Russians, interesting article here:
I just don’t see the point in taking action for the sake of appearing to save face.
This is not the reason i stated for acting. I have clarified it each time you have said this pish so please stop stating my argument incorrectly and FFS answer the simple question
Is doing something more defective than doing nothing?
we’ve now lost even more credibility.
Aye russia respects us less because we did something and they would have respected us more if we did nothing. Good point well made
unless a credible pathway to success is proposed.
this is all or nothing and silly . I cannot end poverty so I guess I do nothing? It makes no sense. Not everything you try is 100% effective it need only be more effective than doing **** all.
So is russia more or less likely to do this again if we do nothing ?
I have no idea why thee hard questions have stumped you to the extent you cannot answer them.
On your broader point yes Putin will remain whatever we do, yes he will posture , yes he can retaliate - he cannot cut of the gas as he needs the money and it harms him more than us - his economy collapses we are cold for a winter [ though he may be able to sell it to his populus easier than we can].
We cannot just do nothing and hope it all goes away and we cannot do it because anything we do wont definitely stop it ever happening again. We need to reduce the risk and action is greater than inaction at achieving this - this is obvious from anything from road safety to accidents at work.
Is doing something more defective than doing nothing?
Assuming the “defective” is not a typo, I’d say yes, it can be. In this case, it has been, as a major part of our soft diplomacy efforts in the British Council have been kicked out.
I really don’t know why you’re getting so upset here. I have a contrary perspective to this than you do, that’s all. You would rather the UK took some action in the hope that it will have some effect, I’d rather we didn’t take action unless we know what it’s effect will be, and what the end point looks like.
If the weather’s not too bad, go out and ride your bike for a bit 😉 I did today and got sunburned. In March. In a bloody gale.
I really don’t know why you’re getting so upset here
I dont know why you are making things up. Its a disagreement I doubt either of us is anywhere near upset
go out and ride your bike for a bit I did today and got sunburned. In March. In a bloody gale
Its snowing you **** ,though we have the gale. Ok now I am upset 😉
Ok now I am upset
You're upset? I'm bright pink!
Anyone worked out whhich already-banned, xenophobic, europhobic troll is now posting as Raybanwomble?
Georgi Markhov was widely known as Uncle Bulgaria - makes you think
Assuming the “defective” is not a typo, I’d say yes, it can be. In this case, it has been, as a major part of our soft diplomacy efforts in the British Council have been kicked out.
Not going to do us that much harm in the long run, Russian businesses need hard currency more than we do, neither will closing the embassy in St Petersburg, that will only be a hindrance to Russians wishing to get visas to visit the UK.
What’s that expression, “The ethical dwarf, posturing on the moral high-ground, presents a ludicrous spectacle”, sums up Putin to me.
Anyone worked out whhich already-banned, xenophobic, europhobic troll is now posting as Raybanwomble?
STW, supporting alternative viewpoints since.....oh.
Well Raybanwomble appeared three weeks ago and has shown a level of disdain for myself and Junkyard normally only show by Teamhurtmore who just so happens to be banned. He knows everyone on here far to well for someone who has only made 142 posts and has carried on the grudge matches where THM left off.
I had him down as TomW. Not seen him since the reboot, but no idea if he had been banned
To be fair, he’s for the most part been forcefully making his point no worse than a lot of the rest of us. If it is THM, perhaps he’s learned some manners.
edit: just checked Tom_W1987’s history and no posts for one month, last log in 2 weeks ago. *waves @tom*
Checked out SlackAlice’s article link and it comes from a bit of a weird website. SA, can I ask whether you found the post in a search, via social media or is it a site you’ve followed for a while?
Independent article on Putin, his ambitions, and what his rigged election means for the future:
What’s that expression, “The ethical dwarf, posturing on the moral high-ground, presents a ludicrous spectacle”, sums up Putin to me.
I think that underestimates him. I am sure he understands the concept of ethics in its only in " a county near London" way.
He has no interest in the moral high ground unless it gives him an advantage, Its one of those occasions where despite stating how much I dislike him I do have to admire his competence.
He doesnt care about the plebs wanting a visa its his cronies who are throwing milions/billions at the UK who might be a problem. However they are only investing in the UK in case they move from Putins friend category to foe.
@clover, it was a mate who sent me the link, first time I'd visited that site and had a quick skim read of other articles on there and found it to be a refreshingly different take on events from the usual media drivel that we're given and expected to unquestionably swallow
My mate doesn't tend toward conspiracy theories if that helps?
Personally, the whole thing smacks of smoke, mirrors and red herrings and I think Westminster are playing a very silly and dangerous game.
Obviously, YMMV
Looks like we've been briefing the Yanks and they can't keep their gobs shut.
Suggests many more people than previously thought may have been 'affected' by the agent. Don't know how they'd be keeping a lid on those kind of figures here in the UK.
Have you seen this interview? Thoughts?
He's a good actor is my thought- or maybe genuine.
Russian ministers claiming UK pressure helped with pro putin turnout.
Once again UK has done exactly what Putin wanted