Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it’ll bother this particular Godfather.
Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.
Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.
I don't think he did.
I don’t think he did.
Check this article ... NYTimes Op-ed by Putin Sept 11, 2013.
If the Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop then NATO/West really need to assure Putin he has his buffer zone.
The problem with Russian buffer zones is that they appear to come with Russian backed puppet governments against the wishes of their populations. Why on Earth do you suppose there has been an almighty scramble to achieve the requirements to join NATO by many ex-USSR countries?
If he withdraws, he’ll only have shown that he’s not the mafia mastermind we thought, he’s a deluded madman chasing decades-old USSR dreams. That he’s surrounded himself with yes-men who have enabled this shit-show.
Maybe some of those "yes men" have been waiting for him to do something stupid.
to create his “buffer zone”
Russia borders a hell of a lot of countries… so… either…
a) all those countries should feel threatened by Russia if not heavily defended or aligned to a major world power
b) it’s an excuse to increase the RF by force, bringing a significant region into his empire, and look strong at home
[ EDIT: it’s not really either/or, is it ]
Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.
Well, he absolutely tried to have one. A lot has happened since then. Obama was naive/hopeful.
Russia is not trying to expand
Chewkw - I've read your posts on this thread with interest - its been good to have your perspective, but ^^^^ is bobbins. Putin is imperialist and wants vassal states surrounding him - Syria, Belarus, the enclaves in Georgia/Moldova/Ukraine.
Russia doesn't own all these other countries, and they don't want him there. If he can't see that his behaviour towards his neighbours pushes them into the arms of NATO to avoid being invaded, then he is as stupid as he is crazy.
The problem with Russian buffer zones is that they appear to come with Russian backed puppet governments against the wishes of their populations.
You can have a puppet government or a full scale war. Choose.
Why on Earth do you suppose there has been an almighty scramble to achieve the requirements to join NATO by many ex-USSR countries?
Because they have a big bear next to them and they are afraid of being devoured so that balance of power must be maintained. But when that "balance" of power starts to creep into the bear's territory that's when the bear takes a swipe at them. If they are not that close to the bear then the bear cannot reach them.
Russia borders a hell of a lot of countries… so… either…
a) all those countries should feel threatened by Russia if not heavily defended or aligned to a major world power
b) it’s an excuse to increase the RF by force, bringing a significant region into his empire, and look strong at home
They have No strategic importance to Russia unlike Ukraine.
Well, he absolutely tried to have one. A lot has happened since then. Obama was naive/hopeful.
Actually it is the Blob that dictated to Obama what he could/could not do ...
Putin is imperialist and wants vassal states surrounding him – Syria, Belarus, the enclaves in Georgia/Moldova/Ukraine.
Apart from Syria the rest are strategic importance to Russia.
Notice NATO did not even bother about Syria? They actually "give" Syria to Russia because it is of no strategic importance to NATO.
Russia doesn’t own all these other countries, and they don’t want him there. If he can’t see that his behaviour towards his neighbours pushes them into the arms of NATO to avoid being invaded, then he is as stupid as he is crazy.
Own or not does Not even come into the equation. If they are neighbouring to a big bear they better not "poke" the bear. Nobody will come to their aid unless they want a full scale war.
They have No strategic importance to Russia unlike Ukraine.
You’ve posted a lot of good content in this thread, but that last line makes no sense. Any of the bordering countries are of strategic importance, if the aim is to have a “buffer region”.
[ EDIT: I see you’ve added another line. Don’t start retreating back into your “the Blob” type language, keep engaging on ideas, please. ]
Because they have a big bear next to them and they are afraid of being devoured so that balance of power must be maintained.
So how will that be done without Russia "devouring" them?
Glad in Ireland we never accepted our fate of living next to a Big Bear.
Nobody poked the bear - the bear stuck it’s head in the hornets nest (sorry couldn’t think of an analogy) and now can’t get its head out, even though it is being stung over and over.
You’ve posted a lot of good content in this thread, but that last line makes no sense. Any of the bordering countries are of strategic importance, if the aim is to have a “buffer region”.
He does have a point though. Ukraine is important beyond being a buffer - Putin took Crimea (back then), partly because the naval base in Sevastopol gives him great access to the Black Sea / Mediterranean etc, and obviously it doesn't freeze in winter like most russian ports. So getting a land bridge to Crimea is going to be one of his main aims, as and when he climbs down from full-on occupation. Also, it has a lot of natural resources, importance for agriculture, etc. Estonia et al don't really have those advantages.
So we should sit back and let Putin expand as and where he pleases?
Putin took Crimea (back then), partly because the naval base in Sevastopol gives him great access to the Black Sea / Mediterranean etc,
Well let's hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.
Putin's plan was to take the entire country
His 3 day decapitation collapsed about the time his paratroopers were massacred thinking they could take the airport outside Kyiv on the first night
He might settle for the regions he has taken so far, for now, but he wants it all and he'll be back for the rest.
Notice NATO did not even bother about Syria? They actually “give” Syria to Russia because it is of no strategic importance to NATO.
The NATO intervention unraveled when labour voted against intervention and thus the lead partner for the US said no
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/03/10/ed-miliband-should-hang-head-shame-should/
Tonight has been an education.
Went out for a pizza and a beer with an Italian mate. I didn’t know before but his father was Ukrainian.
His take on all this;
Stalin was in league with Hitler when the Germans invaded Poland and they’ve been Nazi’s ever since.
In his eyes Putin is just the continuation of Stalin
His Ukrainian father was captured fighting the Russians when they invaded Ukraine and then conscripted to fight the Germans, as were many others. It was that or the Siberian Mines to die
They’ve always been waiting for this. They always knew that Russia would invade Ukraine it was just a case of when
His opinion of the Russian people would demolish any sweat filter.
They are a breed apart and they are utter ****s!!
Glad in Ireland we never accepted our fate of living next to a Big Bear.
Which side of your analogy do the nutters still setting bombs off and shooting people sit on?
I would suggest that Ireland and it's history is very different to Ukraine's
Don’t start retreating back into your “the Blob” type language, keep engaging on ideas, please.
Their foreign policy is a mess caused by the Blob (Foreign office establishment).
So how will that be done without Russia “devouring” them?
Be neutral with no threat to Russia i.e. no Tomahawk station.
So we should sit back and let Putin expand as and where he pleases?
The case for Ukraine now is really to think hard because NATO/West will not intervene to escalate the situation. NATO/West will only provide background voice but not much beyond that. Ukraine is more or less on their own and the ordinary folks are going to hate the NATO/West now having bought into the "dream". Yes, they hate Russia/Putin too but many will feel cheated.
Well let’s hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.
Turkey is a bit vague but I doubt they want to trigger any displeasure with Russia. They seem to be comfortable with both sides.
Putin’s plan was to take the entire country
Yes, Putin thought he could walk in without realising Ukraine would resist so strongly.
His 3 day decapitation collapsed about the time his paratroopers were massacred thinking they could take the airport outside Kyiv on the first night
That will make him more determined because he knows he cannot afford to lose his buffer zone. He will fight no matter the cost and even ask the Chinese CCP for drones etc.
He might settle for the regions he has taken so far, for now, but he wants it all and he’ll be back for the rest.
My view is that he wants at least half of Ukraine hence he is driving the people out by all means. If Ukraine continues to resist he will push further to drive more people out even if it means Ukraine is a wasteland.
Which side of your analogy do the nutters still setting bombs off and shooting people sit on?
I would suggest that Ireland and it’s history is very different to Ukraine’s
i would suggest you need to read some history and concentrate on the history of Ireland from another perspective - there are many parallels. Invasion, occupation, genocide. Domination by a giant superpower that saw its neighbour as being a colony.
If Ukraine is continuously occupied nutters will occur as an insurgence.
They are a breed apart and they are utter ****s!!
Ah, you've met my old Finance Director from Moscow...
He’s dreaming if that’s true - he’s not driving the people out. His forces are all over the place - one minute trying to capture Kyiv, the next the Black Sea coast, and a land bridge. He’s used up his entire initial force and is now having to call in mercenaries and troops from all over his empire. He has no air superiority, and all the time the Ukrainians are getting more and more weapons and aid pumped to them and are clearly better trained, better motivated. Don’t get me wrong I have no doubt there will be continued massive destruction, but capture half the country? Feels like a tall order to me.
If there is no ceasefire it will just be a long and bloody war of attrition while his economy disintegrates.
Be neutral with no threat to Russia i.e. no Tomahawk station.
Desperately naive
Putin wants Ukraine, he sees it as part of Russia
He wants Finland back too
He is so convinced it's part of Russia he believed his own propaganda that the Ukrainians would welcome his troops with open arms
Instead he's pummeling the country into rubble and throwing his own troops into a meat grinder to get it : 1000s dead, many more injured, over 1000 captured
Don’t get me wrong I have no doubt there will be continued massive destruction, but capture half the country?
No water, no heating, no food, nothing available for people apart from constant explosion or building being destroyed, nobody can last long in those situation.
My view is that he wants at least half of Ukraine hence he is driving the people out by all means.
Agreed, he won’t be happy just linking the Crimea by land to Russia in the East, he also wants the whole of the coast line and a considerable area in the South, ie “New Russia”. What he wants might have already been changed by the people of Ukraine though. Maybe they can reduced his realistic ambitions further.
If Ukraine continues to resist he will push further to drive more people out even if it means Ukraine is a wasteland.
If they hadn’t have resisted, he would already have pushed further, and there would be twice as many refugees in the surrounding countries. And there would be no Ukraine. That may still come. Let’s hope not.
Well for balance, I only worked with one Ukranian, he was a very normal IT consultant type and quite a nice bloke.
I think it's gone beyond that now, and chewk makes some interesting points. (I never thought I would say that!)
Notice that putin is not attacking ex-soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, but is happy to pick on countries like Georgia and Ukraine...
Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it’ll bother this particular Godfather.
Apparently it's not gone down well. According to the BBC "a move Russia said was unforgivable". Meanwhile Russia bombed a theatre!
Well for balance, I only worked with one Ukranian, he was a very normal IT consultant type and quite a nice bloke.
I worked with a couple
One did a PhD project in our lab, she worked her arse off tbf
Anyway her Facebook posts are quite grim, she lives in Kyiv and her hatred of the Russians is now immense
I don't really get the 'buffer zone' argument. Wasn't Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone - a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO? If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be... NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.
Meanwhile Russia bombed a theatre!
A theatre sheltering a lot of children
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504165292511043591?s=20&t=_okNLw3-SW06dfhLkfd73g
They'd even written 'children' in Russian outside
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1504199975877632003?s=20&t=_okNLw3-SW06dfhLkfd73g
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1504141027879313412?s=20&t=_okNLw3-SW06dfhLkfd73g
There's only 1 hospital left in Mariupol and there's some footage from inside it that I won't post
Well let’s hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.
Well yeah - officially, they're allowed to close the Bosphorous 'in times of war'. So that could become interesting if and when a peace deal is signed. But for the time being at least, that should be possible?
I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument. Wasn’t Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone – a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO? If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be… NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.
Yeah that argument doesn't wash at all well!
I personaly think Putin wants Europe to over-react, to give him an excuse for more violence. despite the atrocites he has already comitted, and play straight into his narrative.
I think Europe is playing the game as well as it can in the face of a mad man.
A report I just read said that the theatre had an underground shelter, presumably a relic of the Cold War - let’s hope it is not as bad as it might have been.
I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument.
That's because it's nonsense. Putin isn't afraid of NATO so much as he's afraid of liberal democracy. His aim is to reintegrate the former Soviet states into a new Russian empire. He succeeded in Belarus. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian people rejected being a puppet state and turned to the EU. NATO membership was not on the cards, it was EU membership and democracy that set Putin off.
Claiming that Ukraine would be better off as a puppet state makes no sense. Ukrainians have rejected that and have chosen to fight. The Ukrainian army hasn't defected, neither have their TA units. They prefer to fight than to be subjugated by Russia.
This war is not about NATO "expansionism". It's about Putin wanting to subjugate Ukraine and launching a war after Ukrainians elected a democratic government and turned towards the EU.
"but capture half the country? Feels like a tall order to me."
If Putin wants half the country he doesn't necessarily have to capture it. In negotiations he could trade the land he now occupies in the South West and North of Kyiv for the as yet un captured land East of the river.
Not saying that's what's going to happen but I think it's a scenario that's been plausible since about day 4, when the capture of the entire country began to look less likely.
In terms of bargaining chips at the negotiating table, it would make more sense for Russia to attack more strategically important sites (ports and industrial cities etc) in the West, rather than try to occupy the vast, mostly agricultural lands yet to be invaded in the east.
I think it highly likely that Crimea, Luhansk, Dombas and a land corridor between them will be ceded to Russia. I think Putin sees them as in his pocket already. He's bludgeoning the cities remorslesly because he wants more than that, and probably needs more than that to claim it as any sort of victory back home. Half of Ukraine would constitute an enormous agricultural resource, (Ukraine is huge don't forget).
Peter Hitchens and Dr Mike Martin discussing Ukraine.
I'm sorry, but I'd rather take a fistful of rusty 6" nails and ask the local "problem drinker" to hammer them into my scrotum after imbibing a bottle of ouzo then to listen to Peter Hitchens.
I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument. Wasn’t Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone – a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO?
Yes, Ukraine was a buffer zone until they decided that wanted to join NATO.
If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be… NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.
That's not the true Russia so still a buffer zone.
Remember Russia has seen their "empire" reduced from Soviet Union to Russia. They see their position/land slowly diminished and the counter balance of power slowly tilted away. When NATO slowly encroached on their neighbours they could see NATO moving east into their territory and eventually will cross the red line. Although a country with the largest landmass situation can easily turn against those in power and their way of life. They know the softly softly approach would not work because that's the tactics used by their opponents. Hence, their approach is direct and to the point.
Putin isn’t afraid of NATO so much as he’s afraid of liberal democracy.
Yeap, I totally agree with that. Liberal democracy is a Trojan horse and he knows that. The fundamental of liberal democracy is individual rights as defined by West, while in the East or Russia such concept of liberal democracy is being imposed upon them. Hence, the Blob's view that the world must be "created" in their image with them in charge.
Yes, Ukraine was a buffer zone until they decided that wanted to join
NATOthe EU.
FTFY. What triggered the invasion back in 2014 was Ukrainian voters rejecting closer ties with Russia in favour of closer ties with the EU. It was nothing to do with NATO, it was about liberal democracy.
FTFY. What triggered the invasion back in 2014 was Ukrainian voters rejecting closer ties with Russia in favour of closer ties with the EU. It was nothing to do with NATO, it was about liberal democracy.
The question is where did they get the idea or if anyone funded the campaign?
Remember US sent the contras back to South America to topple the governments there? I am not saying that was the case in 2014 but there must be something that triggered it.
Hence, the Blob’s view that the world must be “created” in their image with them in charge.
There is no USA “Blob”. There has been an extending of offers of trade and cooperation towards former Warsaw Pact countries by the EU, sometimes with the support of the USA, sometimes with them opposed to it, depending on who was elected to high office over there. The main help offered to Ukraine by the USA itself (with the UK) over the years was to persuade and assist them to decommission their nuclear arsenal, and send the warheads to Russia, so that the country would not be a threat in future to Russia or other European countries (or the world).
inkster - I'll restate my view of what putin wants from any 'negotiation' and add that any agreement with him isn't worth the paper it's written on.
He wants to save face and present any agreement as a win – I think that means 4 main objectives:
– russia to keep most territorial gains
– russia not required to pay reparations
– Ukraine to drop it’s aspiration to join NATO
– Ukraine to drop it’s aspiration to join EUI have no connection with Ukraine but I cannot see any of these being acceptable to Zelensky – with possible exception of no reparations.
Despite reports to the contrary I’m not convinced Ukraine will drop their NATO wish.
Nobody is imposing liberal democracy on Russia. Nor for that matter, are they imposing it on Ukraine. Also, just as a further reminder, Ukraine isn’t Russia.
He wants all of Ukraine.
He has wanted the USSR back for years he openly says it has written about it. his legacy project to the motherland.
It's gone to ruin he has bankrupt his own people by becoming the worlds richest man and now a war criminal.
China must be licking it's lips at getting Russia into debt now no one else is going to lend Russian banks cash or prop up the stock market when (if) it opens.
The worlds largest country won't even have an international flight operation as no one is going to lease jets to them.
Hardly a master tactical mastermind.
I do think he will try and drag the EU in now or at least have a go at it I don't think failed war mongering is going sit well with him.
There is no “Blob”. There has been an extending of offers of trade and cooperation towards former Warsaw Pact countries by the EU, sometimes with the support of the USA, sometimes with them opposed to it, depending on who was elected to high office over there
Trading is fine but when their political influence is exerted further that is where Russia does not feel comfortable.
Nobody is imposing liberal democracy on Russia. Nor for that matter, are they imposing it on Ukraine. Also, just as a further reminder, Ukraine isn’t Russia.
As I said earlier, it does not matter whether they are imposed or not on Ukraine as the "tide" is moving east towards Russia. The only way Russia knows how to response is via force as they perceive a threat.
He has wanted the USSR back for years he openly says it has written about it. his legacy project to the motherland.
No, he understand that is not achievable and he does not want to see Russia also turning.
China must be licking it’s lips at getting Russia into debt now no one else is going to lend Russian banks cash or prop up the stock market when (if) it opens.
China is playing a very long game. Time is on their side. Remember China claimed they discovered America first long before the Europeans?
Do Not push Russia towards the Chinese CCP. Solve the problem in Ukraine without China.
The only way Russia knows how to response is via force as they perceive a threat.
This is true. But what is that “threat”? It is not a military threat on Russia. It is a threat on restricting and resisting Putin’s plans to expand the RF by force. It is the threat of the people in bordering states becoming an example to the people of Russia.
This is true. But what is that “threat”? It is not a threat on Russia, it is a threat on Putin’s plans to expand the RF towards Germany.
Putin and Russia are the "same".
No, he will Not expand towards Germany. He might be brutal but I doubt an ex-KGB can be that naive. Besides moving west means entering the western hemisphere which is the domain of the superpower the American and they (Putin will be) are far far away from home. They will become fish in a barrel.
A simple question, would EU let a battalion of Chinese army stationed in Sweden? Just a few soldiers with pistols. Is that a threat?
No, he will Not expand towards Germany.
That’s exactly what he’s doing. If you mean he won’t make it as far as Germany, I suspect you are right. But if I lived in Poland or Lithuania right now, I would be looking to move, rather than take that risk.
The rest of your post, I don’t understand. Are Sweden asking China to defend them? Who from?
The rest of your post, I don’t understand. Are Sweden asking China to defend them? Who from?
I am trying to illustrate a point that both sides do not want their territory to be encroached no matter how peaceful they can be. i.e. America/Nato/West do not want Russia in their backyard nor do Russia wants them to be in his backyard. Both sides will see that as a threat no matter how both sides try to explain.
But if I lived in Poland or Lithuania right now, I would be looking to move, rather than take that risk.
No strategic significance to Russia.
I just hope the Ukraine/Russia war can be solved asap.
America/Nato/West do not want Russia in their backyard
They don’t have much choice. Russia has bordered NATO since its formation. There has never been an EU without a land border with Russia. And the USA is just across the water.
No strategic significance to Russia.
Safe for you to say sat further west.
I just hope the Ukraine/Russia war can be solved asap.
We all do. Sadly, whatever is agreed and signed when this stage of the Russian war on Ukraine is over, it quiet clearly won’t be the end. See 2008, 2014 etc. Putin will be back for more, and occupation will cause ongoing conflict.
They don’t have much choice. Russia has boarded NATO since its formation. There has never been an EU without a land border with Russia. And the USA is just across the water.
But Ukraine is the last straw ...
Safe for you to say sat further west.
There is simply no evidence of them moving into a NATO member state. None. In fact they have been shrinking (influence).
A few week ago we were listening to…
There is simply no evidence of them moving into Ukraine. None. In fact they have been shrinking (influence).
But I hope, and I think, you are right, and that other countries like Lithuania and Poland have nothing to worry about. If I lived there I’d be getting my family out though, rather than wait to be proven wrong.
do not want their territory to be encroached
Ukraine is not Russia. No one has encroached on Russian territory.
Ukraine is not Russia. No one has encroached on Russian territory.
Nor is Cuba on American soil yet Cuba is still under embargo.
Crikey... The old chwewks is back.
I withdraw my previous comments.
Russia has invaded another country. That's it. That's where we are at now.
The question is where did they get the idea or if anyone funded the campaign?
Remember US sent the contras back to South America to topple the governments there? I am not saying that was the case in 2014 but there must be something that triggered it.
They got the idea from looking at how life in EU countries was much better than in Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine was run by corrupt oligarchs backed by Russia. There were mass protests and the government fell. This angered Putin greatly and he invaded Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine still has massive problems but it has made huge progress on fighting corruption and the army is firmly behind a democratic government.
This happened because there was huge popular support for liberal democracy and joining the EU. It was nothing to do with being manipulated by foreign influence. If you have any evidence that foreign money was behind it, please share it, otherwise drop it. The "just asking questions" thing is just a way of implying that something happened without providing any evidence.
Putin needed an explanation for why Ukraine turned away from Russia. The best his propaganda people could come up with was shadowy foreign agents funding a campaign against Russia. The problem for Russia is that Putin has been in an information bubble for many years and believed his own propaganda - his advisers would have been too scared to tell him the truth so blaming "foreign money" was an easy excuse for them. Putin's delusion that Ukrainians actually liked him is why Russia thought they would drive over the border and be greeted as liberators by grateful Ukrainians. The reality of being greeted by anti-tank missiles and machine guns and crowds of civilians protesting the Russian invasion is a clear demonstration that the pro-EU campaign was driven by a Ukrainian desire for self-determination, not by foreign money.
The foreign money "question" is just a Russian propaganda line that has no evidence. If you're going to raise nonsense like that, please show the evidence for what you're saying.
Russia has invaded another country. That’s it. That’s where we are at now.
Russia is actually exercising their own "Monroe Doctrine". i.e. no foreign power in the backyard.
Also refer to the Bucharest Summit 2008 i.e. NATO expansion. (Summary from Wiki)
Russian explicitly says No but they still let it slides until now.
They got the idea from looking at how life in EU countries was much better than in Ukraine and Russia.
Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown, then it snowballed from there ...
Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown.
The President fled when it became obvious that the country turned against him. He tried to suppress protests with force but failed. Ukrainian soldiers seem a bit less keen on turning machine guns on civilians than Russian soldiers. Ukraine now has a democratically elected government that favours closer ties to the EU. Putin's anger was not that a coup occurred, it was that a popular revolution overthrew a corrupt pro-Russian government and replaced it with a much more liberal democracy.
This is the sort of thing that Ukrainians voted against. The idea that Putin has any legitimate interest in Ukraine is nonsense. Ukrainians knew just how bad Putin was and they wanted no part of a Russian Empire led by a murderous tyrant.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1504275036655521798
The President fled when it became obvious that the country turned against him.
I bet he was fearing for his life but now everyone fears for their lives. If force could be used at that time then force is being used again this time. Democracy is not their style in that region.
Bottom line is No foreign forces in the backyard regardless.
Democracy is not their style in that region.
It is now. That's why Putin is so angry. Democracies popping up all over Eastern Europe, showing that there is an alternative to brutal repression. Or are you saying that Ukrainians have no right to live in a liberal democracy because their country used to be corrupt and authoritarian? In many countries around the world, democracies have replaced dictatorships. Are you saying that those democratic governments are not legitimate because democracy was not the "style" in those countries so they should revert to being dictatorships?
If Tom Nichols is worried, I'm worried.
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1504286320729939971
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1504287275777236993
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1504288228005793797
Bottom line is No foreign forces in the backyard regardless.
But it's not their backyard... it's next door's garden. Any forces there are going to be foreign - all countries have their own militaries, some bigger than others. The only reason it's an issue is if you plan to invade them, or you fear that they are going to invade you.
The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse. The best way to prevent NATO expansion IS FOR RUSSIA TO STOP **** ING INVADING PEOPLE.
The only reason that Putin has invaded Ukraine is to try to bolster his popularity within Russia. Putin has invented this crisis with the express purpose of casting himself as a strongman leader, and the good guy.
As it turns out - he's completely **** ed it: The international response has been 10x what he must have expected, he's going to have to make some serious concessions to get those sanctions lifted (which he'll fear will make him look weak) and the Russian armed forces are being made to look like a bunch of incompetent/brutal arseholes..... so pretty much the opposite of what he hoped he'd achieve.
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/1504349328323883008
This is an interesting take. Putin essentially channelling the line "If you're a citizen of the world, you're a citizen of nowhere" line to a somewhat more chilling effect than the May-bot could achieve
The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse
You can keep telling people all you like, if they're not prepared to hear it...But as you point out, for Putin's adventurism in Ukraine to work he's reliant on the West's military organsation to do what it normally does when he destroys another country; absolutely nothing. Thus sort of revealing what he really think's of NATO.; that it's a talking shop and poses him no threat whatsoever.
Something going on Belarus allegedly
https://mobile.twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1504194054585831429
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1504194054585831429?s=20&t=8v0qjAerFDtTIofqUJVVqQ
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1504268811016540164
New York times reporting thousands of Russain dead, and MOD intelligence breifing saying that the Russian advance has stalled on all fronts.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1504336242997174274
The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse. The best way to prevent NATO expansion IS FOR RUSSIA TO STOP **** ING INVADING PEOPLE.
NATO and EU expansion has always looked more of a political failure on Moscows part (a failure to bring countries towards Moscow willingly) than anything else. It's why they've repeatedly defaulted to military intervention to force Moscows goals.
Chewie’s points are I feel false and illogical, BUT they do serve to illustrate what Putin and some of his people believe. His speech yesterday was completely bonkers - it can’t have escaped the attention of his people that he is becoming more and more deranged. Will be difficult to see where this goes next. People keep talking about an off ramp but I can’t see that on the current Russian demands, Ukraine won’t accept it - why would they as there seems to be currently no risk of Putin imposing his will by force. So, either Russia manages to ‘unstall ‘ its military operation, or Putin has to compromise. I think we’re in for a long haul…
But as you point out, for Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine to work he’s reliant on the West’s military organsation to do what it normally does when he destroys another country; absolutely nothing.
No, I think he's now trying to lure NATO into intervening, hence the deliberate targeting of civilians. The one thing he has left that will unite Russian public opinion behind him is NATO joining combat against Russia. This would confirm all the propaganda he's spouted about NATO secretly aiming to destroy Russia.
NATO and EU expansion has always looked more of a political failure on Moscows part (a failure to bring countries towards Moscow willingly)
Exactly. Russia never offered those countries a deal worth considering. It saw them as subservient to Russia, not sovereign countries to be treated as political equals. Russia could have been like Germany is in the EU, a powerful member of an economic bloc that dominates the economic sphere but doesn't need to send troops and tanks to keep the others in line. But that would have required renouncing the dream of being a military superpower again. Putin doesn't want Russia to be an important country in the region, he wants it to be a global equal to the U.S. The aspirations of other Eastern European countries carry no weight for him, that's why they turned to the West.
No, I think he’s now trying to lure NATO into intervening
yes, now he certainly is. At the beginning of the "special operations" I think he was banking on NATO absolutely not intervening. Classic hubris of the autocrat really, underestimate your enemy, don't plan properly, believe your own hype.
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=IYeQmqRsFkOQlnoQmhPecw
I've no idea what's going on with that
No, a flurry on twitter last night , now nothing.
No, I think he’s now trying to lure NATO into intervening, hence the deliberate targeting of civilians.
No, he is not trying to lure NATO/West into escalation. He is going to flatten the place because it it is cost effective without having to maintain the place. Invading the place is "easy" but maintaining the place needs money. Flatten the place is much more cost effective. Hence, driving out/terrorising the population is the best way forward because Russia/Putin does not need to "feed" the people, considering the size of their economy.
I’ve no idea what’s going on with that
Supposedly a military exercise, they just forgot to warn the country this was happening.
I wonder if intimidation of the Belarusian people is an aim here - there have been protests, there have been military refusals to operate apparently, they seem to have more access to information than many Russians....
Have they accused the Ukrainians of firing missiles into Belarus yet? Not that this would be unjustified, given those that have been fired from their airspace into Ukraine.
Feels more like a way to shore up Belarussian support for the war, and domestic support in Russia. How convenient for Putin that he doesn't even have to blow up his own people like he did in the run-up to Chechnya, he has Belarus as fodder for his propaganda.
Belarus are drafting soldiers and more equipment moving closer to border
https://twitter.com/idemetrescu/status/1504387920370745346?t=EKM1mmSaMsT3ZG_BULQ_hw&s=19
Also moving battle groups from Georgia
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1504058528188743687?t=wP7FCNczEMl12F3z1TZ0QQ&s=19
And as far away as Siberia
https://twitter.com/IntelRogue/status/1504244317140959238?t=glYFVgzsgp2ycwQQ8ROMMg&s=19
Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he's leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it
Which is quite remarkable