Any ‘agreement’ signed by putin isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
Exactly. A ceasefire would just be an opportunity for Russia to regroup and rearm before a fresh attack. Ukraine knows this. The only ceasefire they are going to accept is one where they are militarily powerful enough to repel any invasion. That basically means they won't accept a treaty until after they have repelled the current invasion.
Any ‘agreement’ signed by putin isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
Indeed. Whatever happens, Russia is now a complete rogue state who nobody, whether state or private sector, will touch with a bargepole. Their word is worthless.
A ceasefire would indeed be an opportunity for Russian forces to regroup, but would also allow Ukraine to do so. Also, well they’ve had quite a bit of time to regroup already and don’t seem to have done so. Talk of another big push on Kyiv, but how many times have we heard that?
The amphibious force off Odesa is another good example of where they can’t seem to decide what to do. It must be pretty demoralising being sat on a ship for days on end waiting for the ground forces to get their act together. A contested beach landing without support from the land side, without air superiority, and without a huge naval bombardment - that would just be suicide.
Indeed. Whatever happens, Russia is now a complete rogue state who nobody, whether state or private sector, will touch with a bargepole. Their word is worthless.
I'm sure global britain will see this as a wonderful business opportunity.
Basics like what will be the EU “army” language
Ironically English now must be a hot favourite for universal EU language because it's no longer favouring any member state 🙂
Moley you’re a genius 😂
World beating language!
You also have the issues around the use of force, some nations may have very specific rules depending on their legal arrangements, the UK at the most basic level is drawn from UK law.
An example, US forces can use force to protect equipment, the UK cannot. There are many other examples from experience, that's before we get to doctrine that the various nations favour.
As a sidebar, I really enjoyed working with the Danish, really chill bunch of soldiers with equally chill officer corps.
Basics like what will be the EU “army” language with be a bun fight between the French and the Germans etc etc
Ironically English now must be a hot favourite for universal EU language because it’s no longer favouring any member state
Colonial britain in action there - forgetting that english is an official (the main even!) language in Ireland, and that the Republic of Ireland is still in the EU!
I guess they could opt for Mongolian, thus ensuring no member state is favoured.
'English' is a push if you've ever worked with any regional infantry units...
Ironically English now must be a hot favourite for universal EU language because it’s no longer favouring any member state 🙂
Second biggest spender in NATO quite regularly during the Cold War.
There's a 'but' there. Throughout the cold war Germany had national service which is expensive for the capability it provides. A fully professional Bundeswehr with double the budget is a very different proposition.
They used to have to salute regular troops which I found quite peculiar.
Throughout the cold war Germany had national service which is expensive for the capability it provides.
Colonial britain in action there – forgetting that english is an official (the main even!) language in Ireland, and that the Republic of Ireland is still in the EU
Not colonial, just forgetful!
I listened to this podcast whilst walking the dog this morning: Putin's Rise to Power
It's a fairly brief background on how Putin came to power, and ends on the difficulty of his succession. Was recorded in June 2020, so no real insight into the current situation in Ukraine, but very interesting all the same.
I guess they could opt for Mongolian, thus ensuring no member state is favoured.
Esperanto.
Even the odious Lavrov is suggesting there may be room for some compromise. Totally agree re them being untrustworthy, but anything which can halt the senseless killing has to be a good thing (apart from surrender I mean)…
Ironically English now must be a hot favourite for universal EU language because it’s no longer favouring any member state
https://globalgraduates.com/articles/european-english-joke
The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the EU rather than German which was the other possibility. As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a five year phase-in plan that would be known as "Euro-English".
In the first year, "s" will replace the soft "c". Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy. The hard "c" will be dropped in favour of the "k". This should klear up konfusion and keyboards kan have 1 less letter.
There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the troublesome "ph" will be replaced with "f". This will make words like "fotograf" 20% shorter.
In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be ekspekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible. Governments will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling. Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of the silent "e"s in the language is disgraseful, and they should go away.
By the fourth year, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" with "z" and "w" with "v". During ze fifz year, ze unesesary "o" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou" and similar changes vud of kors be aplid to ozer kombinations of leters.
After zis fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi to understand ech ozer. Ze drem vil finali kum tru! And zen world!
forgetting that english is an official (the main even!) language in Ireland
Not quite. The constitution designates Irish as "the first official language", although obviously it is the most spoken
To be fair, he did say “an” official…
I’m sure something happened recently where Irish was designated an official EU language meaning there’s a whole new load of work for Irish graduates in Brussels, translating speech and written. Meaning you’re quite likely to hear Irish being spoken in amongst fluent speakers in Brussels as they now have a language in which they can converse without being “overheard”. 😀
Meaning you’re quite likely to hear Irish being spoken in amongst fluent speakers in Brussels as they now have a language in which they can converse without being “overheard”.
It just means that the idiots who think they can discuss sensitive stuff in the open end up overplaying their hand
It just means that the idiots who think they can discuss sensitive stuff in the open end up overplaying their hand
Yes, this happened to us in a Cardiff student bar. Sorry ladies, you aren't the only Welsh speakers in Cardiff despite what you might think 😆
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993
Some interesting analysis from John Simpson at the BBC discussing how the conflict might end.
Now that a swift Russian victory is off the cards a negotiated settlement looks like the most likely out come. Putin can save face if Ukraine formally recognises Crimea and agrees to not to join NATO. Ukraine officially loses some territory but maintains its sovereignty and doesn't get absorbed by Russia.
Can the oligarch's impounded monies and good be used to rebuild Ukraine? I'm sure Vlad will reimburse them.
I'll lay bets that sanctions will be removed in less time than it takes the ink to dry.
I love how the captured Russian vehicles always look like a bunch of homeless squatters have been living in them.
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1504055493551087625
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1504082473902387209
^^
A mattress on the tank as "Emotional Support Armour" - very good!
This is the military that scared the west for decades due to its perceived ability to roll across the entirety of western europe within days?😐
It's pretty obvious that most of the money that Putin spend on "modernising" the military was creamed off along the way.
Take away the nukes and oil and Russia is just a corrupt banana republic.
Take away the nukes and oil and Russia is just a corrupt banana republic.
Take away the financial services sector, the libel laws and the London laundromat and the UK is just a corrupt banana republic.
^^ Oh, I'm not disagreeing with you there!
I love how the captured Russian vehicles always look like a bunch of homeless squatters have been living in them.
The Mad Max look.
I love how the captured Russian vehicles always look like a bunch of homeless squatters have been living in them.
I suspect a couple of things:
- during war a bin bag for rubbish is not a priority.
- winning troops will search for any useful documents and weaponry, also making sure it's safe to leave.
- locals are apparently rather swift at looting these things, at very least nicking the fuel.
I love how the captured Russian vehicles always look like a bunch of homeless squatters have been living in them.
Well to me the important point about that photo would appear to be that they don't look like military rations, it looks like they have looted a local supermarket.
I love how the captured Russian vehicles always look like a bunch of homeless squatters have been living in them.
To be fair, I've seen just as bad in the back of a Saxon after 5 days on Salisbury plain.
Well to me the important point about that photo would appear to be that they don’t look like military rations, it looks like they have looted a local supermarket.
One of the items Russia is alleged to have asked China for is MRE's... Got to be embarrassing asking an ally for simple food stuffs to keep your troops from starving.
One of the items Russia is alleged to have asked China for is MRE’s… Got to be embarrassing asking an ally for simple food stuffs to keep your troops from starving.
Yep
Another example of the corruption that has hollowed out Russia. The military rations contract was awarded to Putin's buddy. Who creamed off the money for himself. And the soldiers were paid so badly that they flogged some of the food off to local peasants.
Russia is collapsing due to these clowns.
Some Russian soldiers had rations that had expired in 2015. Most companies responsible for providing food to the Russian military are connected to Yevgeny Prigozhin — patron of PMC Wagner, the mercenary organization, and sponsor of the Internet Research Agency, accused of meddling in US elections. Prigozhin’s companies were accused by opposition leader Alexei Navalny of forming a cartel and gaming the state’s bidding system for defense orders, receiving contracts for several hundred million dollars. The quality of food and housing in the Russian military is reportedly worse than in its prisons, with unreasonably small meals and some carrying harmful Escherichia coli bacteria.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-military-corruption-quagmire/
Putin is losing the narrative at home too...
Journalists/presenters quitting state TV and or leaving Russia entirely.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60763494
Take away the nukes and oil and Russia is just a corrupt banana republic.
In 2014 I think, Sen John McCain called Russia; "Essentially a gas station run by the mafia, masquerading as a country"
Vey encouraging signs that a peace agreement can be reached. Fantastic news
I hope this whole thing will now de-escalate. Russian army seems overstretched unless it's a huge bluff.
Here's hoping.
Vey encouraging signs that a peace agreement can be reached. Fantastic news
Do you trust putin to keep his word?
He wants to save face and present any agreement as a win - I think that means 4 main objectives:
- russia to keep most territorial gains
- russia not required pay reparations
- Ukraine to drop it's aspiration to join NATO
- Ukraine to drop it's aspiration to join EU
I have no connection with Ukraine but I cannot see any of these being acceptable to Zelensky - with possible exception of no reparations.
Despite reports to the contrary I'm not convinced Ukraine will drop their NATO wish.
The answer will be some kind of conditional neutrality. No NATO, but Russia agrees to not invade, or NATO will help defend it. Obviously somebody cleverer than me will draft it!!
Whilst still shooting people queuing for bread Putin is still demanding that Russia be treated as a great power. He's a criminal just like Slobodan Milošević.
Interesting background material from T Ali:
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/n06/tariq-ali/before-the-war
NATO made it clear a while back that Ukraine is not joining while Putin is still alive. The NATO membership has long been a red herring. Any peace deal will ultimately be about how small Ukraine will become, territory wise, if allowed to continue as a country at all. Russia will want Ukraine cut off from its ports, and for the RF to have a land bridge with Crimea. They will want Ukraine not just diminished in size, but cut off.
At least the Russian infantry will be happy with the tank crews using mattresses. In the final assault on Berlin they were the additional armour, sat on the tanks to take the impact of Panzerfaust's
from T Ali
Do you also think that Poland shouldn’t be in NATO? That even a United Germany should have been outside NATO? Where should the line have been drawn? In the Atlantic?
You seem to think that NATO is a force for good. Personally I'm not a Blairite and don't support all this bombing and killing.
Who are NATO bombing and killing?
In that article, Tariq Ali states that in November, Joe Biden decided to "proceed with NATO enlargement – starting the process of incorporating Ukraine".
Can anyone find a source for this? I can't find any info about it.
I can see plenty of info about how in 2008, NATO said that Ukraine would probably, eventually, become a member, and how ever since 2014, Ukraine has been going 'hey, can we be in NATO now?', to which the reply has consistently been 'no'.
It's a shame he didn't provide a source because I'd be interested to read more.
Interesting background material from T Ali:
I like this sentence especially "And Russia’s democracy is as far advanced, if not farther, as any of these countries we’ve just signed up to defend from Russia" that's aged well.
Personally I’m not a Blairite and don’t support all this bombing and killing.
Well good, I don't think anyone here has expressed support for all this bombing and killing, Blairite or no.
OK, genuine question if you’re not up for “bombing and killing” how else are you going to deal with Putin and his expansionist agenda?
To be fair, I’ve seen just as bad in the back of a Saxon after 5 days on Salisbury plain.
Nothing compared to the back of Barrys Saxo after butlins
It's hard to see how Russian withdrawal at this point would be anything other than a complete failure for Putin. If he withdraws, he'll only have shown that he's not the mafia mastermind we thought, he's a deluded madman chasing decades-old USSR dreams. That he's surrounded himself with yes-men who have enabled this shit-show. Meanwhile, the Russian armed forces that we've feared for some time look incompetent and anaemic.
Even the messaging at home (AKA propaganda) appears to be falling apart, so I can't see how he could possibly spin this as a victory even internally. Although it's hard to know how much we're being shown (journalists' protests, resignations etc) is actually reflective of what they're seeing.
Meanwhile China keep ominously quiet on the whole thing. Does anyone else feel like the world order is shifting? We'll soon forget about Russia and it'll be the West vs China?
Didn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back? Beggars can’t be choosers and all that but even then there are limits 😂
Russians are still losing serious amounts of equipment even in places they've 'captured'
15 helicopters and several mobile missles launchers destroyed at Kherson Airport by Ukrainian mobile rocket trucks yesterday
https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1504010066307002370?t=hwMaGE2GaAiS0XYoAL_PNA&s=19
I hope this is true!
I read that the International Court of Justice has ruled and instructed Russia to cease military operations
Do they have any weight behind them? Are Russia obliged to observe this ruling?
The answer will be some kind of conditional neutrality. No NATO, but Russia agrees to not invade, or NATO will help defend it. Obviously somebody cleverer than me will draft it!!
I think this is pretty much how it will pan out, it's just so utterly tragic that that there were lives lost over what is essentially a political spat.
That said, the russian economy is now absolutley shafted, and now the russians have shown thier (military) hand...it will be for decades to come.
Unless it's a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he's finished, it's just a matter of time.
I’ve just watched highlights of Zelensky’s speech to Congress. It is incredibly powerful. If you watch nothing else of it watch the video he played (though it’s graphic in places). If that could get broadcast in Russia it would make a big impression.
kato - my understanding is that neither Russia nor the US are members of or recognise the ICJ and ICC so the ICJ ruling is symbolic.
Even if Russia were members it's unlikely they would comply as democratic and legal norms mean nothing to putin.
timbog160
Full MemberDidn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back?
No wonder they're doing so well, with Uhtred son of Uhtred getting involved
what happened to that convoy approaching Odessa yesterday?
Didn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back? Beggars can’t be choosers and all that but even then there are limits 😂
I feel even more sorry for them now, they were shocking. When we moved into the mechanised role at Tidworth we were told that they were originally designed for export, but were so crap no one wanted them, they even had to be up armoured to do public order duties in Northern Ireland!
Unless it’s a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he’s finished, it’s just a matter of time.
I agree.
The bit that concerns is every day means hundreds, even thousands, of deaths and more war crimes being committed.
When I landed in Kabul during the Afghan Conflict they tried to drive us to the British base downtown in Saxons. We declined the kind offer & slept in Hammocks down the back of my herc instead!
The airport also had the benefit of each ISAF nation stationed there having its own bar. The Estonian field hospital bar was my local.
what happened to that convoy approaching Odessa yesterday?
Don't know, but I'd have thought that a few tanks parked on the coastline would cause a lot of trouble to the landing craft.
Let alone soldiers armed with javelins!
(Although they might be the wrong sort of weapon for dispatching landing craft.)
BBC are reporting that Russians bombed a theatre where 1000-1200 civilians where sheltering.
Are they really complete c++ts or is the Russian intelligence/artillery simply not up-to-the-job and this was a "mistake"?? 😳
Both
I can only imagine the horror of an amphibious assault onto a defended beach with modern weaponry.
I liked saxons, they were a piece of piss to fix. Electrically anyway.....
Based on the good old MJ weren’t they? Just googled some reports and the gist of it seems to be the Ukrainians thought they were ‘ok’ if used in very specific circumstances…
In other news reports Ukrainian SF have apparently freed Ivan Federov, the kidnapped mayor of Melitopol. Brilliant news if so and really does make you wonder what the Russians are playing at..
Unless it’s a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he’s finished, it’s just a matter of time.
No, I don't think he bluffing. It is his way of saving face. Note that Putin has been saying no NATO in his backyard even before 2014. He kept telling NATO/West that he/Russia was very uncomfortable with NATO/West in his/Russia backyard i.e. encroaching on his territory. He was even telling the reporters/media about this many years ago but the media was just bemused at his reaction.
If the Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop then NATO/West really need to assure Putin he has his buffer zone.
Remember Cuban Missile crisis? American went all the way to prevent Russia having a foothold in Western hemisphere. The American tried all tricks to prevent that until today. The same reaction Russian is having now.
What Putin doing now is to empty the cities of people to create his "buffer zone".
What the world does not want to do now is to push Russia towards China. China is no push over and they have time on their hands.
Do Not encourage countries bordering Russia to join NATO because Russia will not have it unless NATO wants full scale war. Russia is not trying to expand but they also do not like NATO coming near to them.
If Ukraine insists on joining NATO then the world must prepare for a harder and longer war.
Remember the US Foreign Office blob? There is a reason why all the US administrations (both Republicans and Democrats) called the US Foreign Office blob?
I can only imagine the horror of an amphibious assault onto a defended beach with modern weaponry
https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1503309191523536896
NATO stuff is BS (admittedly only my opinion) - Poland, Latvia, Estonia all have borders with Russia and have been in NATO for years. Putin basically sees Ukraine as part of Russia though, and I think genuinely believes that. But I agree ultimate outcome is probably some kind of commitment not to join NATO in return for security guarantees. Of course this is exactly what Ukraine had when it gave up its nukes and look how that has worked out, but at least it might stop the killing for a time.
Putin basically sees Ukraine as part of Russia though, and I think genuinely believes that.
Regardless, that is his "territory". Putin/Russia has never invaded a NATO state but Ukraine's intention is too close for comfort as Putin is seeing this "territory" shrinking or NATO expanding.
But I agree ultimate outcome is probably some kind of commitment not to join NATO in return for security guarantees.
Yes, not join NATO especially countries bordering or neighbour to Russia.
Of course this is exactly what Ukraine had when it gave up its nukes and look how that has worked out, but at least it might stop the killing for a time.
Putin/Russia would leave them alone as long as there is no sign of wanting to join NATO.
If the NATO/West keeps encouraging Ukrainian people to stand their ground, then be prepared to see many more suffering. Do Not push the people toward the angry bear.
I feel even more sorry for them now, they were shocking. When we moved into the mechanised role at Tidworth we were told that they were originally designed for export, but were so crap no one wanted them, they even had to be up armoured to do public order duties in Northern Ireland
My understanding is that the Ukrainians quite like them, they work as a light armoured taxi and can do 70mph, cheap and cheerful, fit for the role they were employed in
I agree that is probably the key thing at this moment, but he will keep coming back. Even today he admitted that would not be the ‘final solution’. I don’t know if those words have the same meaning in Russian or whether something was lost in translation!
Apologies if this was posted earlier but it did make me chuckle..
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/MKqKd774/7522293-E-881-C-4182-87-A9-574-E7760-C129.jp g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/MKqKd774/7522293-E-881-C-4182-87-A9-574-E7760-C129.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
I agree that is probably the key thing at this moment, but he will keep coming back. Even today he admitted that would not be the ‘final solution’. I don’t know if those words have the same meaning in Russian or whether something was lost in translation!
Apologies if this was posted earlier but it did make me chuckle..
There are some areas that are of strategic importance to Russia/Putin and he considers that "his territory". Do you not think Putin/Russia can also feel threaten?
He does not want Tomahawks stationed next to him (because NATO can have them stationed there) put it this way. Putin actually mentioned Tomahawks to the media.
Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it'll bother this particular Godfather.