a long running campaign of conquest and occupation is surely unsustainable?
Saw on the beeb this morning suspected new russian ballistic missiles which contain counter measures to stop them being shot down. If thats true, it supports the theory they were holding back some of the more advanced stuff in the early days.
Russia No1 presenter has been arrested.
As above, Russia is already an empire, really, but most of that is sparsely populated and was under-developed when it was annexed, as I understand it. Not quite the same thing as occupying tens of millions of people in already developed independent nations.
Anyway, point is, the figures are bound to be all over the place. Reported kills are likely to be much higher than reality.
Counting wrecks isn’t great either, that will usually under report, for example missing damaged stuff which retreated but was too far gone to be repaired or aircraft which
That's my point the wreck counting figure is pretty close to the reported kills, so may well be accurate
"Sure you’re right, given fox’s “murrica first” stance, it must be pretty embarrassing to be exposed ( finally?!) as a part of the Russian propaganda machine!
I spend a bit of time on an American surfing forum. People here would be genuinely appalled by the lack of world view or empathy for non-American situations espoused by otherwise seemingly normal people……… and a lot of the posters are Californian which is generally a more liberal outward looking state!"
There's a predominantly American/Canadian thread on PB where people are alleging that this whole thing was planned by Biden so he could push the green agenda.
Pretty scary how selfish and insular some folks are over there.
The "anti-net-zero" conspiracy stuff is going on in the UK as well. Stay of Social Media to keep your faith in people.
Nah, it's just like going to the zoo, if the zoo was packed full of idiots. But morally feels less cruel to observe them than some nice animals.
The “anti-net-zero” conspiracy stuff is going on in the UK as well. Stay of Social Media to keep your faith in people.
@metaam, the 'Trump was a lying con man who fooled his extremely dumb followers' thread? Comedy gold in there for sure.
The “anti-net-zero” conspiracy stuff is going on in the UK as well. Stay of Social Media to keep your faith in people.
Its all being advocated by a familiar line-up of headbangers, all tainted by Russian Money.
Why on earth would the interests of a violent dictatorship, presently needing to fund a war, who's only income is fossil fuel exports, be interested in fuelling climate change deniers in the UK? Its a complete mystery.
Nigel Farage’s hard-right faction won Brexit. Now net zero is in its sights
In the midst of the Ukraine crisis, there is a comfy and complacent view around that the links between rightwing populists and Putin will hasten their downfall.These people do indeed look suddenly wrongfooted and nervous – but Farage and his allies play by a different set of rules, partly because they do not have to worry about parliamentary representation and any aspiration to power (and, therefore, responsibility). Because they have been shut out by our electoral system, they long ago developed a much craftier and more light-footed way of operating: making as much noise as possible outside the normal structures of power and politics while encouraging rebellious Tories, and thereby putting continual pressure on the Conservative party via its right flank.
I found this photo quite ominous. Ukrainian tank crews positioned to defend against seaborne landings in Odessa. While chaos reigns elsewhere they're sat waiting.
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It's the Monument to Duc de Richelieu under the sandbags.
https://mobile.twitter.com/expatua/status/1503477321642217483
I believe this is the Russian TV protester.
Dont browse that Twiiter account if you dont want to see some grim content
I see Abramovich had moved his super yacht and personal jet to Russia... as well as himself.
What a rat. Lucky the Tories game him enough time to get his assets on the move.
So, it turns out that many Russian airline planes are registered in Bermuda under their Civil Aviation Authority (tax, natch) and they (Bermuda) have suspended their certificates of airworthiness for over half of them (about 500 planes) over "safety concerns". so today Putin signed a law that will make it possible for Russia to nationalize (steal) 500 or more planes that western companies pretty much abandoned in Russia when the restriction of flights took place.
It also has to be said, lots and lots of people register their airplanes in Bermuda for tax purposes, it's one of, if not the largest off-shore aircraft registry.
Thanks Piemaster, I was looking for that pre-protest video she shot. Let's get it embedded here:
https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1503477321642217483?s=20&t=R0HxBUJAB7mkrDg6HQ9SlA
500 or more planes that western companies pretty much abandoned in Russia
They werent abandoned. They are planes which were leased by western companies to Russian airlines and its that they didnt really have any ability to recover them (I think they got a few back which were in western countries at the time) beyond saying "please fly them back".
The use of Bermuda was for the leasing companies benefit apparently there are some other advantages not just tax including in theory better protection against the airline stealing the plane.
This goes far beyond private jets, the majority of airliners globally are leased by airlines and the leasing fees are usually paid in dollars. Russia is under sanctions now so has decided to offer to pay the lease fees in Roubles or threaten to "nationalise" the aircraft from the leasing companies. One of the two companies hit by this is based in Bermuda, the other is based in Ireland.
Remember that the vast majority of these aircraft are Boeing and Airbus models. Russian companies like Illushin and Sukoi do build airlines but they tend to only have a small Russian domestic market. If you look at the safety record of these airliners then you'd probably think twice about flying on them...
Big issue here is that the leased aircraft now can't be used outside or Russia or possibly their affiliate countries as they can be legitimately be seized and grounded if the lease fees have been withheld or the lease contract has been broken. The other thing is that if the airworthiness certificates (v important if you feel that safety is important when you fly) are invalidated so the aircraft (and their engines which come from western companies like RR, GE, CFM etc) are both uninsured and out of warranty. Supply of spare parts will be, to put it mildly, an issue. Again, this comes back to the safety factors and international laws that are at the heart of global commercial air travel.
The Aircraft lease companies involved here are heading for a bunfight with their insurers too as their own exposure looks to be in the region of about $10Bn+.
Final point here is that Russia can nationalise the leased aircraft but it doesn't mean they can use them. Once this all is over you can just imagine how willing lease companies are going to be to work with the likes of Aeroflot...
Remember that the vast majority of these aircraft are Boeing and Airbus models.
Boeing and Airbus were two of the first companies to announce they were pulling out of Russia. Without their maintenance and parts contracts that meant, according to Boeing and Airbus, that every single one of those aircraft would be grounded within 2 weeks.
Those planes might actually physically be in Russia, but they're not going anywhere as they won't be airworthy with no parts or maintenance. So that means no internal flights within what is a massive country
Good article on CCN I think about this, read it lady night.
As said, those planes won't be worth much by any definition within weeks.
It also has huge implications as when Russia (it's airline/s) tries to lease planes in the future they will understandably be told to **** off.👍
Putin wants a need "golden age" of the Soviet era... well, it's happening but not in the way he imagined!
Ah but with the cavalier attitude to air safety in Russia, they'll still be in the air for now. If one falls out of the sky they'll blame the US backed separatists in UzbekiGhaniMeniCaucausstan and say they were using new Decepticon tech provided by Zlenskiiiy's Nazi friends in Israel
Lucky the Tories game him enough time to get his assets on the move.
His wealth is so vast it wouldn't matter a tiny bit had he not managed to get them out - only vanity and greed made him do it.
It also has huge implications as when Russia (it’s airline/s) tries to lease planes in the future they will understandably be told to **** off.
I think it'll be safe to say that that will apply to pretty much anything involving sums of money and the honouring of contracts
He is indeed leading his nation back to the Soviet glory days...
1917
It looks like we might have to relinquish the crown of Greatest Act of National Self Harm to Russia.
Poopscoop
Full Member
Good article on CCN I think about this, read it lady night
Lady night? 🤔
It looks like we might have to relinquish the crown of Greatest Act of National Self Harm to Russia.
Hold my beer, says Johnson....
I hate bloody predictive.😁
Me too, it's ducking annoying.
Thoughts on casualties
Looking at the various reports for numbers of Russian casualties/ captured, the Ukrainian MOD numbers are daft, but reputable sources are saying perhaps as many as 5,000 killed/injured, with perhaps as many as an additional 8,000-10,000 captured from a strength of 190,000 Most of which won't be front line infantry (they'll be drivers, cooks, artillery gunners, loaders, tank drivers, radio, logistics and so on and on). Maybe as few as 40,000 - 45,000 will be infantry. Normal rule of thumb says an army has a third fighting, a third held, and a third in reserves, replenishing and resting, so that's about 13,000 soldiers at a time fighting in 4 or 5 battle areas that aren't joined up, are totally static (so not mutually supportive) and have been since pretty much the beginning of March. Perhaps as much as a third of their fighting infantry capacity gone so far. No aircraft support no helicopter support, or medical evacuation/rescue. And these are some of the "elite" of the Russian Army This is unsustainable in every sense.
In country there are estimated to be 20 Generals, 5 of which are known to have been killed so far. That alone is going to have a huge impact on this army's ability to fight battles against well armed and motivated Ukrainian forces There's been difficulties with logistics; food, and weaponry and replacement vehicles and all the other things that a army this size needs, and no new large numbers troops have been to deployed to relive forces who've been fighting now for as long as 3 weeks. Again unsustainable in every sense.
What a waste of all those lives, both Russian soldiers and the civilians that have died, on the absolute nonsense of one man's vanity victimhood.
Do you think we’ll see the Russian’s repurpose these jets like the Cubans did with old American cars from the 1950s with Lada engines? 😜 Speak to anyone who experienced Russian domestic airline travel in the 1990’s - they often felt they were simply lucky not to crash / get out alive. Luckily I managed to dodge the bullet but other colleagues didn’t.
There was an ex-VCDS Major General on the radio yesterday and having war-gamed the scenarios are predicting that the Russians will reach the point of over-stretch shortly. Believing they’re trying to take Kyiv and then Putin can announce ‘victory’ having ‘secured’ Donbas and established a land bridge to Crimea.
His wealth is so vast it wouldn’t matter a tiny bit had he not managed to get them out
I dont know about that. Getting a replacement yacht or plane might be tricky right now no matter no much cash he can offer.
So that means no internal flights within what is a massive country
Maybe. Boeing and Airbus might consider them unairworthy in a couple of weeks but so long as you are more relaxed about safety chances are you would be able to keep them going for sometime slowly cannibalising some to keep others going.
Wouldnt be able to fly them outside of Russia and I definitely wouldnt want to be on one in a few months time or under the flightpath but so long as you are relaxed about the bodycount you could keep things going.
I read Putin also issued safety certificate laws the other day on a news feed.
As long as the paperwork is in order it's good.
Apparently
Speak to anyone who experienced Russian domestic airline travel in the 1990’s – they often felt they were simply lucky not to crash / get out alive. Luckily I managed to dodge the bullet but other colleagues didn’t.
MrsMC did a years VSO in Russia in 97-98. They were given strict instructions not to take internal flights.
Probably worth monitoring airplane parts on ebay, might be some bargains coming up.
@binners Glad it’s not just me that’s suspicious of the curious coincidence that the Faragists are now anti-Net Zero and the Russian economy depends almost entirely on fossil fuel.
Ukrainian tank crews positioned to defend against seaborne landings in Odessa
I wonder what kind of a mess 125mm APDS would make of a ship? Or would it just go straight through the relatively thin plating and out the other side leaving a neat hole?
I wonder what kind of a mess 125mm APDS would make of a ship? Or would it just go straight through the relatively thin plating and out the other side leaving a neat hole?
Navy ships are densely packed with all sorts of plant and equipment - there are pipes and cables everywhere.
there is little chance of a 'through and through' but it would make a proper mess inside.
I had to fly with Aeroflot from Moscow to Paris once, not my choice of airline and I was slightly worried. I needn't have been, the nice hotel is Moscow gave me food poisoning and I spent the entire flight in a cold sweat, all my clothes soaked through while filling sick bag after sick bag without the slightest concern if we plummeted to earth! One of my colleagues was sat beside me doing the same. I did fell slightly sorry for the other person in our row.
Without their maintenance and parts contracts that meant, according to Boeing and Airbus, that every single one of those aircraft would be grounded within 2 weeks
Been a tough couple of years for the big boys in aviation land.
With a bunch of possible new sales to replace these aircraft, things are looking up for Boebus.
I wonder what kind of a mess 125mm APDS would make of a ship? Or would it just go straight through the relatively thin plating and out the other side leaving a neat hole?
on a warship?
Googled a Type 45 destroyer. Apparently it has "Kevlar splinter protection, 70 mm magazine/VLS".
They're not designed to slog it out and take multiple hits from big shells like battleships in WW2. They're designed to strike first and avoid getting hit.
Bit like a jet fighter.
Zelenskyy appears to be softening his position on Ukraine joining NATO. A key concession, hopefully this will bring a ceasefire closer in the ongoing talks. Possibly Putin's 'off ramp'. Even though it was a BS excuse for him, as there was no possibility of them joining anyway. But if it allows Putin to 'save face', maybe no bad thing?
However even if it's not NATO, I can't see how an independent Ukraine (if hopefully, it still exists) can survive in future without some kind of security cooperation with Europe/US.
https://twitter.com/euronews/status/1503758541508816901?s=20&t=4A2vSrFSadEptX0uktOKaQ
All the (industrial) music:
“For Peace. Against War. Who is not?” is a quote by Susan Sontag, an American writer, filmmaker, philosopher, teacher, and political activist
All proceeds from the sale of this compilation will be split evenly between the charities Vostok SOS and the Ukrainian Red Cross.
vostok-sos.org/en/about/mission/ -Vostok SOS
redcross.org.ua -Ukrainian Red Cross
@ayjaydoubleyou Yes, as @jeffl says much less armour than a WW2 ship of similar size, and definitely much less armour than any NATO tank you can think of, which is what APDS is designed to defeat.
I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!
dan - I don't think that's the end of it.
Seems I was wrong, modern warships have pretty much given up on plate armour. Modern naval combat weapons are too good to even bother to try to withstand a direct hit.
They’re not designed to slog it out and take multiple hits from big shells like battleships in WW2. They’re designed to strike first and avoid getting hit.
I lost an hour once watching a youtube documentary on the decision processes for guns vs armour for the various classes of WWII battleships from different countries. Continual tradeoffs of offensive vs defensive vs survivability vs weight vs speed with a smattering of treaty compliance thrown in. Fascinating stuff.
I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!
We'll see if she's still alive this time next week
I agree -still amazed she was allowed out to hold a press conference at all. I thought she would just disappear.
Isn't Putins preference to contract out his extra-judicial killings? Having her die in custody is way too obvious
If I was her, I wouldn't be starting any box sets
I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!
So she worked for the main Russian TV channel for many years, and only now decided to protest, and gets the equivalent of a slap on the wrist (when others holding blank sheets of paper up in public get worse)?
Sounds like a good way to stop western media showing pictures of dead children and burning houses...
There are reports on Twitter of a large Russian navy flotilla nearing Odessa. I’m not able to link atm.
I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!
I believe that's just for the video she made.... Not for the TV appearance.
Apparently so
https://twitter.com/Vegz05/status/1503794502779039750?t=ox2Jfz6a26dNPOZHMO0DFQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/klart_skepp/status/1503794537612914691?t=M1f7MXoE7GRTcqgXeiUJMQ&s=19
blokeuptheroad
Full Member
Zelenskyy appears to be softening his position on Ukraine joining NATO. A key concession, hopefully this will bring a ceasefire closer in the ongoing talks.
I think that is a massive development!
It gives Putin the way out of this. Most importantly it could save a huge amount of lives.
The sanctions should continue either way. Putin must go now, even if he stops the invasion tomorrow.
Get Putin removed, let huge investment flood into Ukraine... let it slowly edge closer to Europe... join the EU at some point... and (shhhh...) let it join NATO at some point if it wishes. No, if it's necessary depending upon Russia's "direction" at the time.
Most important though, is joining the EU.
I believe that’s just for the video she made…. Not for the TV appearance.
That was the way I'd heard it reported which made me think it was Part 1.
Zelensky stepping back from NATO "should" be the win that Putin needs to start rolling back. I fear it won't be though.
Sooooo, if Ukraine don't join NATO, is there anything specifically preventing it from joining the EU?
Maybe the EU super-army calls from a few years ago start to make sense...
Also, if Moldova happened to join EU then Putin invaded/installed a puppet government, how would the EU respond to such "infiltration"?
(All conjecture, I know...)
Sooooo, if Ukraine don’t join NATO, is there anything specifically preventing it from joining the EU?
Maybe the EU super-army calls from a few years ago start to make sense…
I think that some kind of EU army or European defence pact looks more attractive now. Possibly even replacing NATO. Especially with Germany's change in stance and public opinion in neutral countries like Finland, Sweden and Switzerland becoming a bit more hawkish in light of Putin's actions. Germany are going to have a very effective military if they follow through on recent defence spending commitments. Arguably, If everyone signed up it could provide a credible defence against Russia, without being underwritten by the US. This could appeal to the US who have long called for Europe to do more towards their own defence and make it appear less threatening to Russia without the US in the driving seat. The US have been a bit luke warm about NATO anyway, looking more towards the Asia Pacific area. Idle musings, might be a hundred reasons I've overlooked why it wouldn't work.
As long as Ukraine satisfy EU joining criteria and their joining isn't vetoed the only thing stopping them might be more pressure from their nasty neighbour. Hopefully regime change in Russia might negate that.
Oh, CNN reporting that given the huge commitment Germany has just given to funding its military, it will likely have the 3rd biggest military in the world.
Amazing and (ironically given their history) somewhat reassuring I suspect for us and Europe.
What an odd world.
Ha! As if to reiterate what I posted above.
It's just sad that countries will be spending all this money that could have been spent improving people's lives but that's the world we currently live in.
It’s the world we’ve always lived in. The human race has an attachment to war.
On France 24 this morning ( fantastic news output btw) a politician from Poland was saying the EU army or joint force is a must now. An EU army was aways going to be the piont where Putin went into a western facing country or so I believed, I was aways against the idea BUT I was wrong Putin has done this anyway. So an EU army or at least huge joint strategy is needed now.
What it looks like with Germany spending so much cash on it's army is anyones guess. Or the USA and uk go back into barracks in Munster/ Poland en mass.
Well done Putin not many feet left to shoot yourself in.
Destruction of the economy, rouge state and your army has been shown less than credible if going up against a major well equipped nation nevermind NATO.
And the USA did not fire a shot.
Has EU membersip been raised in the negotiations yet?
A couple of weeks back I saw an ex NATO staffer say that Putin sees the EU and its twin promise of democracy and economic prosperity as a greater threat than NATO.
I can understand why Putin would see it that way, If Ukraine drops its application to join NATO but succeeds in joining the EU, Putin could project that as a victory to a home audience (if accompanied by territorial gains) but it would be a deep underlying wound for Putin personally and wouldn't necessarily bode well for long term peace.
I’ve always thought an EU army would be an advantage of EU membership and not a negative. Id imagine that Europe is looking east to Russia and west to the US and realising that its interests are served by neither. Imagine if Trump mk2 is elected in 2024. It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US. Which is great.
It would be even better if some of the high-end manufacturing was returned from China and investment made in Ukraine so that the prosperity from Foxconn factories and EV or microchip production lines is brought to Eastern Europe.
It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US.
It's a lot easier to imagine now that the pesky Brits can't interfere 😉
Russian Navy Landing Ships Seen Approaching Ukrainian Coast Near Odessa
Amphibious assault with no air supremacy or element of surprise, and defenders potentially armed with javelins? Wouldn't want to be on the first landing craft, or the first 20, tbh.
It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US.
EU Superstate, Equal in what sense?
Economically , maybe.
Conventional military , maybe.
Nuclear power, no.
Now a European Alliance,
Yes,
Yes,
Maybe
Ukranians have their own anti ship missiles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neptune_(cruise_missile)
They're going to be tested soon
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1503844630189727750?t=HhW6AEJKM1hyaAXCZjfmfQ&s=19
inkster
Free Member
Has EU membersip been raised in the negotiations yet?A couple of weeks back I saw an ex NATO staffer say that Putin sees the EU and its twin promise of democracy and economic prosperity as a greater threat than NATO.
Yep, I think Putin sees EU membership juat as big a threat. However, after regime change (in the medium term or sooner I hope...) it's a lot harder to "market" that to his people as a threat unlike the the manufactured threat of it joining NATO, which he can not plausibly say.
Not that he needs much justification.
We need to be rid of him.
Everything I have read about an EU army has been more along a cordonation of member states military with some structure to allow coordinated deployment (much like most of the EU) rather than the EU army that papers try to present as a army like the US or other nation state army. For instance I don't think there would be the option of joining the EU army, or even there being EU ships, tanks etc with an EU general in control. More mechanisms put in place to facilitate United responses easier.
@TheBrick, that's pretty much nail on the head. But I do enjoy reading the media scare stories they used to drum up.
It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US.
I fear you have rose tinted spectacles
Hungary and Poland on the naughty step, there will be a push back from the small states that don't want to spend on defence, Germany getting more muscular in its foreign policy will be unwelcome (who appointed them Billy Big Bawes to paraphrase), etc etc
Basics like what will be the EU "army" language with be a bun fight between the French and the Germans etc etc
with some structure to allow coordinated deployment
Just more bloated senior command and not enough bayonets, airlift, drones and trucks
Watching the Fins on Newsnight discussing NATO membership, how quick things change in the lifetime of this thread
Superb take on where Ukraine is now and it might, might not be as bleak as we think regarding a cessation of hostilities.
Ukraine: Putin will search for a way to save face
A little except:
So what will make President Putin come out of this disastrous war looking good in the eyes of Russia's majority? Firstly, an assurance, perhaps even to be written into Ukraine's constitution, that it has no intention of joining Nato in the foreseeable future. President Zelensky has already prepared the way for this, by asking Nato for something it couldn't agree to (establishing a no-fly-zone over Ukraine), then criticising the alliance for letting him down on this, and finally musing out loud that he wasn't sure that if Nato behaved like this, it was actually worth joining. As clever and wise political positioning goes, it doesn't get much better than this. Nato gets the blame, which it can easily cope with, and Ukraine gets the freedom to act as it wants.
It continues to be more horrific. So many thousands have been killed, cities being flattened slowly, full on siege tactics and growing stories of war crimes. 🙁
We've got to find a way for Russia to back down because Putin can save face somehow.
Any 'agreement' signed by putin isn't worth the paper it's written on.
Germany getting more muscular in its foreign policy will be unwelcome (who appointed them Billy Big Bawes to paraphrase), etc etc
The Bundeswehr forming a key component of European defence isn’t a new thing in modern history. I’ve not seen anything to suggest it’s going to dramatically shift German foreign policy yet beyond what was in place for West Germany. Are there any statements on the from Germany?
Second biggest spender in NATO quite regularly during the Cold War.
As an aside, a brilliant Lego Zelenski and tiny Molatov cocktails have been produced as a fundraiser https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/lego-retailer-raised-over-16000-to-support-ukraine-selling-zelensky-molotov-cocktails-minifigures/
I tried to buy one but too late...
Also I did a very unhelpful join the dots bit of thinking:
False flag chemical or nuclear incident announced by US (they have preempted things before)
Klitchko announces 2 days of curfew
Zelinsky and Polish, Czech and Slovak ministers meet in Kyiv and go by train...
Sometimes waking at 3am not being able to sleep is not good at all.
There's not much to laugh about in all of this, but this Twitter feed does provide the occasional welcome smirk 🙂
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1503991468943368196?t=3mOGW-RLimoQ5DQ_d9sXBg&s=19