UPDATE: Reviews section refreshed, redesigned, searchable: Go take a look
An investigation into Russia’s military indoctrination of Ukrainian children in occupied territories, “Any deal to end the war cannot just be about kilometres.”
"Our investigation was the sixth mission established by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 2022 to investigate human rights violations in relation to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s the second to focus specifically on children."
"Amnesty International has assessed this textbook as “a blatant attempt to unlawfully indoctrinate school children in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories”."
"The UN has established that this includes “170 hours of military training including on the main types of grenades, small arms, hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers, and sniper rifles”."
http://theconversation.com/we-investigated-russias-military-indoctrination-of-ukrainian-children-in-occupied-territories-what-we-found-was-more-shocking-than-we-could-have-imagined-287898
Trumps reverse decision to licence Patriot missiles to Ukraine- - a move that surprised no one 🤷🏻♂️
I'd suggest that you catch up with Steve Rosenberg's "Reading Russia" on Youtube; the Russia papers don't paint a good picture during the week or so since he got back from holiday. There are a few pieces, around 3-5mins each.
Territory gained and casualty figures for Feb to July are at the link (below). Suffice it to say that they make for grim reading in Russia and the rate of advance in advantageous Spring/Summer conditions hasn't increased since the lack of cover, cold and mud of February. They're also massively down on the same period in 2025.
ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have advanced in 37.85 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine (smaller than the area of Manhattan) in July 2026 for an average of 1.22 square kilometers per day." Russia’s monthly rate of advance has not changed significantly since February 2026, prior to the start of its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which began in mid-March 2026.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2026/
Russia is heavily striking civilian targets in Ukraine's cities, which will make winter in Ukraine incredibly difficult. There are no doubt a couple of aspects to this, including the possibility of triggering a refugee crisis for Europe, which is a feature of Russia's so-called hybrid war.
Starlink coverage over Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine would enable Ukraine to strike many more Russian missile facilities making the lack of Patriot interceptors less of an issue (see later post).
S-400 missiles are air-defence interceptors, which have a quasi-ballistic track when used in ground-to-ground strikes.
Militarily, using those missiles only heightens Russia's vulnerability to Ukraine's long-range strikes against military and dual-purpose resources.
The Zirkon missile, aka Tsirkon, is a naval missile launched from surface and sub-surface ships. Russia recently developed land-based launchers and in March Ukraine successfully struck two of them on Crimea, destroying two missiles.
President Trump's apparent u-turn on licensing Patriot to Ukraine won't affect this situation. The signal that it sends is appalling.
ISW continues to assess that Russia has been escalating its missile strikes — particularly ballistic missile strikes — against Kyiv City in an effort to take advantage of Patriot interceptor shortages and inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian civilian, defense, and energy infrastructure.
Russian forces launched a record number of missiles against Ukraine in July 2026 — notably firing more missiles than it is producing per month and increasingly leveraging its S-400 and Zirkon missiles to compensate for shortfalls in ballistic missile stockpiles.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2026/
Russia's Rassvet satellite system is already providing stable connections for limited time-windows over Ukraine. The Starlink analogue has launched around 20 satellites, including a few prototypes, but a handful of the production units didn't sustain orbit. The system will eventually number in the hundreds for worldwide coverage.
Russia has also been developing mesh repeater networks and laser links for drone-to-drone video and control links.
Starlink hasn't authorised Ukraine's request for coverage over Russia and most of Russian-occupied Ukraine, while Ukraine seems to be losing its current advantageous headstart in drone control facilitated by Starlink on 1st Feb. The full coverage map is available on Starlink's website.
Starlink first refused cover over Crimea in 2023, citing US sanction controls and the need for Presidential (Biden) authority
Stepanets stated that the deployed Rassvet satellites already provide Russian forces “quite dense coverage,” particularly during two windows per day. N2YO satellite tracking service suggested that Rassvet satellites are positioned in orbits that allow them to pass over Ukraine four times a day and ensure a stable connection with the ground terminal during two or three flyovers, creating a temporary connectivity window for an hour to an hour and a half.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2026/
I await a Ukrainian drone and rocket space force...
info on the air war, and how F16 is getting on:
TLDW;
- lots of F16 operating now, UKR have done really well at running them and mantaining them
- this is a nice suprise for lots of (well informed) commentators who though they'd have trouble keeping them running or they'd get booped on the tarmac quickly
- they've mostly been used for taking down cruise missiles and drones
- this is nice, but very expensive
- the (AIM-9) missiles are expensive relative to the drones
- its put a lot of flight hours on the planes, they have a finite amount of these and many of these 'new to me' jets will end up being retired / need a big service soon.
- the biggest air war problem UKR has is the glide bombs, and F16 hasnt been much help for this, and will never be. It's just too old.
- Gripen will help alot when it arrives as it has a missle that has a much longer range
they've mostly been used for taking down cruise missiles and drones
- this is nice, but very expensive
- the (AIM-9) missiles are expensive relative to the drones
I haven't watched the video, so apologies if it's bindun, but one answer is the BAe APKWS.
This has been in production for over a decade and can be bolted onto pretty much anything.
Ukraine has been using APKWS in ground-to-air mode for a while but they've been spotted on Ukraine's F16s since December
https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-f-16s-now-appear-to-be-armed-with-laser-guided-rockets
6km range so it's less risky for a fighter aircraft than the cannon
Compatible missiles have been around for even longer and are cheaper than some drones
Today’s system has also proven itself capable in air-to-air targeting of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and low-flying cruise missiles – as part of a counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) – as well as in ground-to-ground lethality fired from launchers mounted on vehicles and remote weapon stations.
I await a Ukrainian drone and rocket space force...
I don't know if you're aware, but Ukraine was the backbone of the Soviet space programme.
Google the Zenit rocket as one example. Dozens of successful launches until 10 years ago. I don't know where the engineers are now, but Dnipro city is a bit too close to the frontline for safe manufacturing
I forced myself to watch this podcast by Mearsheimer:
There’s quite a bit of “theory” which is followed by his conclusion the Putin had to invade because of NATO expansion to Ukraine. The funniest part is how he describes Russias diplomatic attempts to AVOID invasion in the run up to feb 22 - actually it’s not funny at all. It would be great if a few from here go over and set the record straight 👍 - I’ve left 2 lengthy comments- but the more the merrier 😀
Have your replies been deleted? All I could see were posts in favour of the professor ands his work of fiction.
They are there 2hrs ago and 4hours ago - @frc125
It would be great if a few from here go over and set the record straight
I won't dignify his nonsense with a click and the income 😉
The Cameroon-flagged Russian "shadow-fleet" tanker, Caroline Bezengi, was in the port of Novorossiysk in May. In June it ran aground off the coast of Oman.
It isn't clear whether the owner(s) have responded to Oman's requests and now it's started to break up, threatening the sensitive coastal environment.
I think that Oman will revisit its decision to allow "shadow fleet" tankers to run under the flag of Oman, which it was comfortable with. The EU/UK-sanctioned Oman-flagged "shadow-fleet" tanker Qendil was struck by Ukraine in December.
""The last few days, the imagery indicates an increase in oil coming out, as the size of the ... sheen is growing," he said. “The main risk is the breaking of the ship” as the windy monsoon season “might take its toll on the hull.” Seas are rough and there are strong winds during the monsoon season of May to September."
"The 274-meter (899-foot) long Suezmax tanker Caroline Bezengi is sanctioned by the U.K. for carrying oil that originated in Russia and “has been or is likely to be involved in activity whose object or effect is to destabilize Ukraine.” The Cameroon-flagged tanker is also sanctioned by the European Union, Canada and Switzerland. "
"“The situation surrounding the tanker Caroline Bezengi is yet another alarming example of the serious environmental risks posed by Russia’s so-called shadow fleet,” said Nina Noelle of Greenpeace Germany in a statement shared with AP."
"The Omani Ministry of Transport, Communications and Information Technology had ordered the owners of the vessel to remove it and its cargo by July 23. It is not clear if the owners have replied."
https://apnews.com/article/oil-tanker-spill-environment-russia-oman-marine-7dff0e9aa32a4dad4207fe5ced3697fa
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155927/Ukraine-targets-shadow-fleet-tanker-in-Mediterranean
In the absence of Patriot interceptors to down arrows, Ukraine appears to be going after the archers. Presidential authorisation of Starlink over Russia and Russian-held Ukraine, which seems unlikely, would be a help.
"Ukrainian officials stated that Ukrainian forces struck the Engels-2 Air Base near Saratov City overnight. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike caused a fire and noted that Engels-2 is one of the main Russian aviation bases housing strategic bombers."
"A Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) unit reported on August 2 that Ukrainian forces struck a Tor-M2 air defense system, a Nebo-S radar station, and a Gamma-S1M radar station in Yeysk (roughly 180 kilometers from the frontline); a Nebo-U radar station in Primorsko-Akhtarsk (roughly 230 kilometers from the frontline); a Kasta-2E2 radar station in Kamyshevatskaya (roughly 200 kilometers from the frontline); a 37T radar station in Prigibskiy; and a Kasta-2E2 radar station in Shabelskoye (roughly 180 kilometers from the frontline). The Ukrainian USF unit noted that these strikes aim to complicate Russian efforts to protect Russian airfields and Shahed drone launch pads."
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-2-2026/
"In brief: Four people were killed and 10 wounded when a drone fell on a beach in Arkhipo-Osipovka, about 14 miles from the estate known as “Putin’s Palace.” A Ukrainian Telegram channel claimed the drone was intercepted roughly 300 meters short of a facility linked to a Russian missile producer."
"The drone had been intercepted by a Russian mobile fire group positioned on the beach. Witness accounts posted in a local VKontakte group also suggested that Russian air defenses had engaged drones over the area."
"Commenters said they had not heard air-raid sirens before the incident."
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/81633
Russia never wastes an opportunity to divide European support for Ukraine,
"The Moscow restaurant bombing over the weekend was an attempt to “intimidate Italians working in Russia,” according to Russia’s embassy in Italy."
It was nothing to do with the birthday party for Russian Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, the new commander-in-chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, who is allegedly behind the Bucha massacre and other atrocities in both Ukraine and Idlib, Syria.
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/81623
the biggest air war problem UKR has is the glide bombs, and F16 hasnt been much help for this, and will never be. It's just too old.
An alternative to the problem of glide bombs and ballistic missiles is go after them at source, i.e. launchers and air bases . An alternative suggestion to the problem of the shortage of Patriot Interceptors from retired USN Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery,
"The United States has already approved the sale of 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munitions (ERAMs) to Ukraine. These are 500-pound air-launched, highly accurate standoff missiles with a maximum range of about 300 miles, capable of destroying targets under heavy electronic warfare conditions."
"ERAMs could give Ukraine the ability to strike ballistic-missile launchers without putting pilots at unacceptable risk. With their extensive range, ERAMs will also allow Ukrainian pilots to engage high-value targets such as supply hubs, ammunition depots, air bases and command centers without flying into the densest concentrations of Russian surface-to-air missile batteries."
"The best way forward is for the U.S. Air Force to prioritize software upgrades enabling full integration of the missile with the F-16’s stores management and weapons delivery systems."
"A faster but less effective solution would be to equip Ukraine’s F-16s with weapons pylons manufactured by the Danish firm Terma. These pylons allow for ERAM integration onto F-16s and will enable more limited but still impactful improvements in the target-management process."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/31/how-ukraines-f-16s-could-stop-russian-ballistic-missiles/
aIm pretty sure musk/trump said no to zelensky re using starlink to hit ballistic launchers inside Russia
without intereceptors it will be a hard winter for Ukraine
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-weaker-russia-keeps-fighting
its put a lot of flight hours on the planes, they have a finite amount of these and many of these 'new to me' jets will end up being retired / need a big service soon.
This is the key comment for me (I've now watched the Ward-Carroll vid, thanks for linking).
The "(AIM-9) missiles are expensive relative to the drones" but the greater issue is putting the aircraft up to launch the missiles in the first place, whether that be AIM-9 or the much cheaper APKWS, and therein lies the problem.
This isn't a problem that's unique to Ukraine because Russia is also hammering its aircraft fleet in the same way, as are the Gulf states in trying to intercept Iran's missiles before they threaten coastal infrastructure.
I was also heartened to see a mention of Ukraine's interceptor drones, particularly the P1SUN, which always starts schoolboy me giggling because it's a corruption of the Ukrainian for "willy". Ukraine now has a long AI willy 😊
Seems that Russia may be playing dafty with planes in Germany?
Edit: came back to say this is terrorism....
I was saying ages ago, I think on here, that something akin to Hurricanes or Spitfires would actually be pretty effective again drones. Easy and cheap to produce, aot cheaper than missiles anyway, and should be pretty effective.
Turns out Ukraine are now using YAK-52 two seat trainer planes in this role, a pilot and gunner with a shotgun and an open canopy. Rather effective. Tops out at just under 180mph though so quite a bit slower than a Spitfire.
Pretty sure they were using a guy with a gun shooting from an helicopters from the early days of the drones to take them down - its not a surprise they are using whatever is available.
What Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries is actually doing to Russia;
Footage of "successful" Russian operations is fed through software to identify its likely origin, including AI-alterations, whether previously seen and geo-location.
Russian propagandists seem to be keeping one step ahead by moving to audio,
"Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly had a phone call on August 6 with the commander of a Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) division, indicating that Russian forces are prioritizing advances in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions with the intent of encircling Ukraine’s Fortress Belt from the southwest."
"The voice purporting to be the division commander identifies himself in the audio recording as Colonel Shikhabidov, who is reported by multiple Russian sources to have died in May 2025. Russian sources report that the current commander of the division is Denis Shishov."
"Putin’s call with the 76th Guards VDV Division commander is likely also a response to emerging accusations that he is out of touch with the battlefield reality in Ukraine."
It's certainly achieved that goal.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-7-2026/
Ukraine is slowing Russia's ground force tempo,
"Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported on August 7 that USF’s average daily rate of Russian manpower detection and elimination fell by 16.3 percent from 374 soldiers per day in July 2026 to 313 soldiers per day in August 2026. Brovdi stated that the drop is associated with Russian forces suffering “abnormal losses” during breakthrough attempts across the frontline since the end of July 2026 and the limited Russian logistics capabilities in southern occupied Ukraine."
The Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 has finally been passed since its original concept in April 2025. A minority section of Dem Senators, with Independent Sen Bernie Saunders and Rep Sen. Rand Paul, believe that this could prove to be something of a double-edged sword if used by President Trump to beat allies, which is why it was opposed by them. One argument is that Trump already has sanction powers against Russia, but hasn't used them.
Trump holds a waiver power under the current iteration that he didn't have in the original concept; their fear is that he could impose 100% tariffs on allies, but exempt Russia (for example) and Congress wouldn't have a say because it's in law. The vote was 86-11 (or 86-12)
"The US Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026, which imposes 100% tariffs on US imports from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, among other provisions, on August 7. The bill expands sanctions against a diverse set of Russian entities, including Russian individuals involved in Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB), Russian financial institutions, and foreign vessels transporting Russian crude oil and coal."
The attacks on Wildberries are also having a wider-reaching effect on Russia's banks,
"The Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications reported on August 7 that Wildberries retailers are increasingly requesting debt restructurings from Russian banks, adding pressure to Russian banks already facing deteriorating asset quality."
