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A lady i work with came into work in tears.
Her husband volunteered to drive to Poland for the Red Cross. He has a lwb panel van so can carry a fair bit.
She thinks he will be bombed or shot at as he is going to Ukrainian border.
I tried my best to calm her down by explaining that the war cannot cross the border for many reasons and he should be perfectly safe.
Then i watched the C4 news at 1900.
Ok, so it could be Western propaganda but blimey that was a tough watch.
She is right to be frightened.
I don’t suppose it’s feasible for a force from non-NATO countries to get in there to enforce a no fly zone on both combatants and subsequently deploy a Peacekeeping force on ground eventually. Presumably UN would broker that..but Russia likely to veto?
I'm not sure who would have the appetite for that.
It's feasible, but there would need to be a degree of agreement from Russia or it would just add more guns and another dimension to a gun fight. And yeah, they'd flat out veto I reckon.
Edit to add: also what @airvent said.
I don’t suppose it’s feasible for a force from non-NATO countries to get in there to enforce a no fly zone on both combatants and subsequently deploy a Peacekeeping force on ground eventually. Presumably UN would broker that..but Russia likely to veto?
Lol.Does any non-NATO country have an airforce sufficiently large to enforce a no-fly zone? China probably...
Who had the stupid idea of veto at the UN and can it be overturned?
This is surprising and encouraging
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499809466816077833?s=20&t=YOb1gcXOYLcYbAV90-_VxA
Who had the stupid idea of veto at the UN and can it be overturned?
I'm sure I read that it was seen as a 'gift' to the victors of WW2, whether it still is a sensible mechanism or not is very debateable.
After reading that the Russian conscripts receive 4 months of training I'm not surprised things aren't going to plan. 4 months!
Channel 4 news was horrible.
That car with the engine still running, a dead woman just outside the door slumped against it, a dead man in the passenger seat, dead. Car riddled with bullets.
My God.
Mate, there's some real horrific stuff out there for sure, saw similar early on, the Russians firing on civilians caught between them and ukranian forces and much worse.
Jeremy Bowen flagged up on Twitter a photo of 4 18yo Ukrainian boys, 3 days' training and they're on the front line. Obscene.
https://twitter.com/BenDLieberman/status/1499812567232958466/photo/3
Crikey, I guess it'll be even shorter for those volunteering or being voluntold on the Ukrainian side, they certainly don't have time on their side; makes sense why they've been asking for foreign volunteers with experience.
It's a meatgrinder for sure.
Kin cannon fodder, mercenary bastard leaders on both sides.
Obscene
Very much so, but what age limit and amount of training do you think should apply when a huge army is about to forcibly take your city and inflict un-immaginable horror on your friends and family?
Sorry, not worthy of a response.
Did anyone watch the UN council today? Russian delegate said Ukraine deliberately set fire to the training rooms after they got caught by brave Russian army defenders protecting the power station.
Nothing to do with the projectiles they fired then? They clearly went to the same PR school as Comical Ali.
gwaelod
Free MemberI don’t suppose it’s feasible for a force from non-NATO countries to get in there to enforce a no fly zone on both combatants and subsequently deploy a Peacekeeping force on ground eventually. Presumably UN would broker that..but Russia likely to veto?
To enforce a no fly zone you need an Air Force (or group thereof) at least as good as the one(a) you’re trying to stop. I don’t believe that the U.K. could enforce one on its own for example, and ignoring NATO for a minute). Maybe U.K. + France + A.N. Other
Lol.Does any non-NATO country have an airforce sufficiently large to enforce a no-fly zone? China probably…
Possibly only Israel.
Possibly only Israel.
Im sure Israel's enemies would love it if their entire Airforce buggered off on peace-keeping duties...
My current rather simplistic stream of conciousness brainfarts, I fully expect to be ridiculed for my childish thoughts and told to gtf so don't worry bout offending me.
1) If Putin loses this war he's finished in Russia so I fear he will throw everything he has at Ukraine as the alternative will be humiliation in his own Russia.
2) If Putin wins this war Russia will become another pariah state such as North Korea and destabilise every country around him which will lead to Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, Switzerland and Sweden joining Nato.
3) Why are the homes of oligarchs who support Putin still standing in this country?, im surprised they haven't been firebombed, to be honest if I knew of any in my area and wasn't housebound id be up for it.
4) Oligarch homes in this country, take them over and use them to house the Ukrainian refugees, use the oligarch seized assets to rebuild Ukraine/give to Ukrainian people.
5) Offer Ukrainian citizenship to anyone from the west who wishes to join the war to get round the "no foreign troops involved clause", There's already 100's if not 1000's of foreign mercenaries operating at the front line so let a force in under Ukrainian citizenship with whatever modern weapons they want. (I know.......ridiculous keyboard warrior thought)
6) Putin gets removed by his own people, whether that be his cabinet/army generals as it appears they were not fully informed of his plans to invade, i'm referring to his head of intelligence who appeared to not know of his plans.
7) ...........I dunno anymore?, I hope my Ukrainian dentist who went across last week to fight is safe, I met him through working in the bike shop and serviced his bikes/went gravel riding throughout the galloway hills before I had to stop cycling (or standing up) due to ms, I hope he makes it back home safe, he used to be in the Ukrainian army so at least he knows what he's getting into.
Humph......no matter what happens its all fubar
Anyone trying to start a no fly zone will have to shoot down Russian planes. This will be a declaration of war, so it will all kick off. WW3 probably. So that's why no-one's done it. The US official PR tweets said the same thing IIRC.
Offer Ukrainian citizenship to anyone from the west who wishes to join the war to get round the “no foreign troops involved clause”
That wouldn't wash.
6) Putin gets removed by his own people, whether that be his cabinet/army generals as it appears they were not fully informed of his plans to invade, i’m referring to his head of intelligence who appeared to not know of his plans.
I'd be somewhat surprised if "the Oligarchs" haven't put a very large price on Putin's head by now. Collectively, he's cost them untold billions of dollars and ruined (or certainly heavily restricted) their lifestyle.
They must be talking to each other about this. They must have at least thought about plotting. But what they do between them? Possibly only bribe the crap out of the army generals to start a coup. Probably haven't got the cash for that though, ironically.
3) Why are the homes of oligarchs who support Putin still standing in this country
Indeed, although I'd prefer that they were sanctioned and indeed requisitioned to house Ukrainian refugees.
I sent my MP a very angry email a week ago asking him for tougher sanctions. He's a Tory, but I've not yet seen any suggestion that he's accepted Russian donations but if I do get a response it'll likely be uncharacteristically bullish and full of vague references to the Labour Party if his last communique is anything to go by.
If Putin wins this war Russia will become another pariah state
We shouldn't wait that long Reuters - sanctions on Russian owned and leased civil aircraft will be grounded within weeks. Russia has significant foreign currency reserves, but access would seem to be problematic.
volunteering or being voluntold on the Ukrainian side, they certainly don’t have time on their side; makes sense
Lots of Ukrainians have military experience due to being conscripted and taking part in the defence of Lushank and Donetsk regions. Something like 400,000 have military experience.
Just got home from helping sort, pack and load a shed load of stuff onto two 7.5t trucks as well as a Transit plus trailer. Everything from baby food, nappies to meals, first aid kits. Now on their way to the Slovak/Ukrainian border.
Anyone see the report from Sky News crew on their ambush? F me. Crazy.
Just got home from helping sort, pack and load a shed load of stuff onto two 7.5t trucks as well as a Transit plus trailer. Everything from baby food, nappies to meals, first aid kits. Now on their way to the Slovak/Ukrainian border.
Truly, thank you.
Russians deliberately firing at unarmed civilians:
Offer Ukrainian citizenship to anyone from the west who wishes to join the war to get round the “no foreign troops involved clause”, There’s already 100’s if not 1000’s of foreign mercenaries operating at the front line so let a force in under Ukrainian citizenship with whatever modern weapons they want. (I know…….ridiculous keyboard warrior thought)
They already have something in their constitution that allows foreign fighters in their military, a little like the French Foreign Legion.
@alpin aware of that. Talking about the pictures of very green teens and others undertaking their rather rapid training because they don't have any experience.
theotherjonv- how true that is and thanks for posting.
What have I missed?
Petrol at £2 a litre, well in a week maybe
Kin cannon fodder, mercenary bastard leaders on both sides.
Nope, one lunatic, one desperate
They won't be dumped like leaderless sheep and told to advance to be machine gunned. They'll be attached to people who know what they are doing and be given the crap/dull jobs like guarding, fetching, carrying etc. The risk from shelling isn't much different to the civilian one and they be fed and watered. They won't want them on the frontline in real action straight away as they'll be a liability and as likely to shoot someone on their own side by mistake as shoot a Russian.
If they were using them as cannon fodder the news would be getting out, the Ukrainians still have their phones.
What other choice do they have?
Run and never return?
I doubt if someone came trying to take away everything you knew that you also wouldn't take up arms.
At the outbreak of WW2 my grandad got refused by the army for being too young. He ended up in the navy at 16.
alpin - thanks for your efforts; my hands-on but remote support starts on Sunday.
I just hope that any of this makes a difference.
Anyone see the report from Sky News crew on their ambush? F me. Crazy.
They are all lucky. Stuart especially.
He needs some 'press blue' armour and a helmet asap.
@big_n_daft discussing with some mates tonight the weight of responsibility the serving types in charge of those young men and women must feel; one thing making the right calls to keep your well trained and motivated troops alive, completely different when they're civilians with weapons.
@alpin, dial it down and re-read. It's not a criticism of them at all, simply an observation as I stated, if you're looking for an argument, take it to DM and I'll happily have it out with you there.
He needs some ‘press blue’ armour and a helmet asap.
I'm sure that would help, they were shouting 'journalists' in English and Russian but they kept shooting
Aside from donating to DEC which I've done, I'm at a loss as to how to help. Feeling so angry and wish Europe/NATO would do more. If I thought it would help I'd be travelling to Ukraine or supporting countries Poland/Hungary/Moldova at the drop of a hat.
I’d be somewhat surprised if “the Oligarchs” haven’t put a very large price on Putin’s head by now. Collectively, he’s cost them untold billions of dollars and ruined (or certainly heavily restricted) their lifestyle.
This is where I think I see Putin's reign coming to an end. If a group of like-minded individuals, eg oligarchs, members of his security forces, or those in his political inner circle, can get each other's trust enough to arrange a hit or coup then maybe it'll happen.
I see they passed a new 'law', spreading misinformation about the military and ongoing operation can land you a max 15year sentence. Calling it a war is a no no.
They're tightening the information control and fear for sure.
discussing with some mates tonight the weight of responsibility the serving types in charge of those young men and women must feel; one thing making the right calls to keep your well trained and motivated troops alive, completely different when they’re civilians with weapons.
Which clearly the Ukrainians would feel and why the "cannon fodder" line is bollox.
Personally I'd be giving some of them a concentrated battlefield first aid course and use them as medics and stretcher bearers. Probably more dangerous to them individually but also likely to save lives overall. But we don't know how it's being organised, the Ukrainians are evolving what they are doing and aren't daft.
Agreed. Not my line, that sadly is what Putin has turned his conscripts into the utter bastard that he is. They slid in the change in law a few years back to be able to deploy them.
I don't doubt anyone's bravery or commitment for one second, I feel for all of them, but most of all I feel for the commanders charged with leading them while trying to liberate their country; pressure is an understatement.
Feeling so angry and wish Europe/NATO would do more
I feel the same, it's so frustrating!
As things stand countries, other than the two protagonists, are watching the attempted destruction of a democratic country; the commission of war crimes; the use of 'banned' weapons; mass murder.
We're being asked to accept that's a price Ukraine must accept.
Aid, including military and in whatever form, is taking far too long to get to where it's most needed.
Sanctions take too long to effect any change when it's most needed - now; UK sanctions are inconsistent and telegraphed so Putin's enablers have time to organise their exit.
I wish I could make a meaningful suggestion.
Do we REALLY believe putin would go nuclear or is it a great bluff on his part?
Personally,I think he would - start with tactical to assess response and then, possibly, escalate.
While govs are pontificating...people are dying; putin feels increasingly confident and is taking the lead; media suppression and subversion continues in Russia.
I pray for Ukraine.
That clip was sobering, in a word.
Christ I remember John Simpson in a flack jacket, I don't remember actual footage of him being ambushed.
So, Coca Cola are going to carry on supplying the Russian invasion forces with sugary drinks.
https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1499876153988845569?s=20&t=SVuZTevn6Ye6tFxjVJgp6w
Didn't they do something very similar about 80 years ago for Nazi Gernany??
One more reason to avoid Costa Coffee.
@alpin, dial it down and re-read. It’s not a criticism of them at all, simply an observation as I stated, if you’re looking for an argument, take it to DM and I’ll happily have it out with you there
****ing hell, fella...bit touchy? Wind ya neck in.
Nor was it a criticism from my side, more a rhetorical point.
I've friends here in Germany who are affected by this whole escapade. Their brothers and fathers are in the front line.
Given the situation I don't think many of us would do anything different than the Ukrainians right now.
I believe someone in Sweden had proposed asylum for Russian defectors?
Why not take this to it's logical conclusion?
Any Russian soldiers who surrenders will be interred for the duration in, I don't know, Australia, and after the war offered EU, UK, US, Canadian, whatever citizenship, no questions asked?
If we could encourage a mass surrender that would help a lot.
Morale appears to be a rubbish. Just need a way of getting the message out and believed.
Feeling so angry and wish Europe/NATO would do more
It's not like we can roll in with our own troops is it?
Has anyone seen the reports that FSB agents have been tipping off Zalensky about assassination attempts? It's in the Independent and Washington Post if anyone cares to look.
Seemingly Russians are queuing to get into Finland before lockdown too.
^^ link?
Feeling so angry and wish Europe/NATO would do more
I'm sympathetic, but I can see AWE Burghfield from my house, so I'm in the "within 2km 98% die instantly" bit of the nuclear bomb infographics.
TBH I don't see any way out of this for the West other than to play the long game. No one wins in war, even if we did send in NATO and even if the conflict somehow remained contained and didn't become WW3, it's just throwing the bodies of more young men at it.
We win, Russia becomes a pariah state, Putin is forced out, something more democratic and stable comes out of it, hopefully.
We lose, Russia becomes a pariah state, Putin is forced out, something more democratic and stable comes out of it, hopefully.
The only difference is winning would probably be significantly more bloody than losing.
@squirrelking yeah, that's really interesting. I imagine western intelligence agencies are using every bit of pull/asset they have to encourage this sort of behaviour.
The reports bring a perspective as to how maybe so many saboteurs have been picked up by Ukrainian forces.
Do we REALLY believe putin would go nuclear or is it a great bluff on his part?
This is the question NATO have to consider when deciding on its response. Sadly I think this particular battle (for Ukraine) is lost - for now. But in the longer term insurgency in Ukraine against Russia and the economic separation of Russia from the global community will I think redress the balance.
Mols - 100%; we don't have armed forces which align with our perception of the UK's global role.
Let down by many governments.
I applied to join the Royal Ordnance Corps decades ago - bomb disposal and similar - but didn't make their grade; lifelong regret.
Didn’t they do something very similar about 80 years ago for Nazi Gernany??
I remember something about this, I'm pretty sure they had a licensed factory in Nazi Germany or something...
It’s not like we can roll in with our own troops is it?
Good point, it's quite the bind- which is prob why the whole thing feels so frustrating!
Has anyone seen the reports that FSB agents have been tipping off Zalensky about assassination attempts?
Yes, quite shocking. It's a really bizarre situation for the Russians and the military. It is possible that there is some master plan, but it's also possible that the military are trying to sabotage Putin through his operation, rather than via a direct coup. Which is a fascinating idea. These are all 'maybes' :
1. Possible tip-offs to the Ukranians
2. Abandoning the AAD truck and leaving all the gear running to allow the Ukrainians access to Russian comms
3. Getting their own vehicles stuck, or ordering your troops to do go places knowing they'll get stuck just to give them an excuse to walk home
4. Deliberately dragging your feet to stall the advance, allow the Ukranians to organise and receive aid and running down your own supplies to make it inevitable that you have to abandon.
Is there any historical precedent for this? An army sabotaging its own war because neither the officers or the troops want to fight it?
Here's a good read about the history of and challenges associated with enforcing a no-fly zone.
The dangerous allure of the no-fly zone
So in theory could the Ukrainian Air Force park their planes in say Poland and go hunting from there? Safe place to retreat to and NATO protected while parked?
The reason we have Fanta is thanks to the sanctions imposed on Germany. The raw materials for Coca Cola weren't available. Coca Cola's German dept created Fanta.
So in theory could the Ukrainian Air Force park their planes in say Poland and go hunting from there?
Not sure of the legalities but it's quite a long way so scrambling planes to intercept planes carrying out missions in the east in time could be hard.
I'm not sure that Putin would view it in the same way
If we could encourage a mass surrender that would help a lot.
The issue is providing some form of asylum is fine for the soldier but would leave the family open to awful sanctions by the Russian state
The thing that will help most is when they do surrender treat them well and make sure they are kept away from those who would take the opportunity to get revenge. Surrendering is a lot easier if you know you are going to be treated well. If you think you are doomed regardless then it's fight on and commit awful atrocities until they get you
Quick Google, it's 940Km from the nearest airbase in Poland to Kiev, the MiG-29 has a ferry range of 1500km. Not sure if that is with payload (or what that looks like) or not.
Not sure of the legalities but it’s quite a long way so scrambling planes to intercept planes carrying out missions in the east in time could be hard.
'Frustrating' is a fair and measured way to describe it. Fully aware why we can't just go wading in to help on the ground or impose a no fly zone but it's currently a no win situation. I fully appreciate the Ukrainians anger at the rest of Europe just now. It's irrational but would we not feel the same if under attack??
Quick Google, it’s 940Km from the nearest airbase in Poland to Kiev, the MiG-29 has a ferry range of 1500km. Not sure if that is with payload (or what that looks like) or not.
So that's what, 45 mins of flying at least. Large amounts of Russia and Belarus are a lot closer than that so Russian planes could have dropped their bombs and be on their way home before interceptors from Poland arrived - even if they had a plane with the range.
I think any nation would feel exactly the same way. Many probably have.
‘Frustrating’ is a fair and measured way to describe it. Fully aware why we can’t just go wading in to help on the ground or impose a no fly zone but it’s currently a no win situation. I fully appreciate the Ukrainians anger at the rest of Europe just now. It’s irrational but would we not feel the same if under attack??
Aye, not ideal. They'd have to have ferry tanks to have a hope of RTB, or a tanker.
So that’s what, 45 mins of flying at least. Large amounts of Russia and Belarus are a lot closer than that so Russian planes could have dropped their bombs and be on their way home before interceptors from Poland arrived – even if they had a plane with the range.
Here's a link to an article detailing RF equipment losses. The list is only based on what can be confirmed through video and photographic evidence, thought some of you might enjoy getting into the numbers.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
Here’s a link to an article detailing RF equipment losses
Good article! Thanks for posting. 92 tanks sounds like a lot at first, before you realise that Russia is used to dealing with numbers well in to the thousands!
Also, there's a lot of abandoned and captured stuff there- is that normal?!? Especially good for Ukraine I guess as they prob know how to use it!
slowoldman
Full Member
Do we REALLY believe putin would go nuclear or is it a great bluff on his part?This is the question NATO have to consider when deciding on its response. Sadly I think this particular battle (for Ukraine) is lost – for now. But in the longer term insurgency in Ukraine against Russia and the economic separation of Russia from the global community will I think redress the balance.
I feel people keep talking about an insurgency with an overly romantic view as if it's France May 1940.
Unfortunately it isn't. If Russia eventually takes over the whole or part of Ukraine(I think it's still unknown if there will be a complete or partial occupation), there's a difference.
The difference back then is that there were countries willing to act with a counter invasion force. The French resistance was noble, but it wouldn't have continued indefinitely under occupation if there wasn't something else to counter..
I think there's going to have to be a capitulation at some point on the Ukrainian side in negotiations. (Unless a miracle happens and Russia collapses internally somehow.) Beyond fighting it out as much as they can there's no other real negotiating leverage?
So in theory could the Ukrainian Air Force park their planes in say Poland and go hunting from there? Safe place to retreat to and NATO protected while parked?
This falls into the same category as dreams of a no-fly zone. It ain't gonna happen and it would actually strengthen Putin's hand.
If any aircraft launched from a NATO base engaged in combat, Putin would take that as a NATO attack (and he'd basically be correct). Russian citizens might oppose attacking Ukraine (hence Putin pretending it's not actually a war), but they would see any NATO involvement as an attempt by a hostile West to destroy Russia.
The same goes for the no-fly zone idea. Enforcing that means shooting down Russian planes and helicopters, plus bombing radar and SAM batteries. In other words, calls for a no-fly zone are really calls for NATO to jump right in. I'm strongly on Ukraine's side in this war, but NATO getting involved would almost certainly be met with Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons.
Ideas like these are virtue signaling, they aren't going to happen because they are terrible ideas.
I'm hoping this guy is right, but I suspect that the Russians will get their logistics sorted out and then they will just flatten any Ukrainian resistance they encounter.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499894935209795594
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499894955996856327
tbf, you can have a gander at the road it's on, seems to be on the P02 road which looks like an actual road, so not really sure how much trouble the are having with mud on a fully paved road.
https://www.google.com/maps/ @50.9519645,29.8784115,3a,75y,131.42h,83.08t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s022wPJBTKCMZ6WwtN1dtKw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3D022wPJBTKCMZ6WwtN1dtKw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D50.299503%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656
looks like that up the length of it.
Also most of it seems to be parked on one lane, so I don't get this all you need to do is bomb a couple at the front patter you hear from people. I'd have a guess it's heavily protected from the air and it's just sitting there waiting on orders tbh.
Russian citizens might oppose attacking Ukraine (hence Putin pretending it’s not actually a war), but they would see any NATO involvement as an attempt by a hostile West to destroy Russia.
That's the fine lin we are having to tread. As well as the direct threat of Russian retaliation if NATO "do something", it bolsters support for Putin at home, the two things we don't want to happen.
A hellish Gordian knot to untangle.
I think the problem is that the vehicles at the front are out of fuel but fuel trucks have to work their way past miles and miles of traffic jam. They need to move vehicles off the road to allow resupply of the vehicles at the front, but they can't park in the fields or they'll bog down. On top of that, the Russians are probably terrified that snipers, Javelins, or drones are likely to attack any vehicle that starts moving so they are probably keen to just hunker down and wait for someone else to sort it all out.