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Bingo… It just takes patience and unrelenting dedication to the cause. Something not being shown right now with oil and gas still leaving Russia to the west sadly!
Power networks quite often don’t work if you turn off all the generators to prove a point. Killing off NS2 was a start but I suspect only a temporary measure. Not even sure that Europe could maintain electricity supply without Russian gas, and that doesn’t consider domestic heating or cooking use.
I agree that we need to wean ourselves off Russian fossil fuels but it needs planning. Arguably it *needed* planning about twenty years ago but that required thinking ahead and spending money.
They've just been discussing the levels of corruption and pocket-lining by Vlad and his Oligarch mates on Five Live.
It makes Boris and chums and their dodgy PPE contracts look like low-level shoplifters
An opposition party (when they existed) looked into the finances of the Sochi Olympics. The total cost of hosting it was £55 billion. They worked out that around 60% of that 'went missing' during the construction and hosting and was unaccounted for 😳
They're also going into the details of the impact of sanctions. It's pretty crippling, by the sounds of it for the average person. There are now 135-140 roubles to the dollar. Inflation is 30%.
One of those things you don't think about is something like shipping. It's no use having stuff to sell if you can't shift it. They're saying that no commercial shipping companies will now touch Russia with a barge pole. So they may have tanks full of oil and natural gas but its not going anywhere.
Sanctions biting already
https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1499026767998337028?s=20&t=-gaFSjy8N7sa5KO-XopfOQ
https://twitter.com/TDeryugina/status/1499039974255218690
“I want to assure you that I am very upset by what’s going on. I recently had a political discussion at work and learned the positions of some of my colleagues. Slightly less than half (me included) share your view, a few others (one of whom has relatives in Donetsk) think that Ukraine didn’t carry out the Minsk agreement and was shelling Donbas, as a result of which Ukraine provoked Putin to start all this and to end nationalism and genocide of residents of that region (they are still against military intervention, but think they would have started sooner or later regardless). One colleague thinks that, like Kosovo, Crimea was annexed legitimately (the region decided for itself) and DPR and LPR should follow its example, and a military operation will be helpful. And a few colleagues have communist viewpoints and think that Russians in Ukraine were being oppressed, that Ukraine wanted to be a threat to Russia and place weapons aimed at the Russian Federation in the East of the country (including in Crimea). They think that, sooner or later, Ukraine, together with Western countries, would have started an aggression against Russia and so in their view the destruction of the Russian economy because of this war is better than the destruction of Russia itself if it were to take no action with respect to Crimea and Donbas. And so they are expecting that Russia will gain control of Ukraine as a result of what’s going on now, after which it will install a puppet government or even try to annex the country or part of it.
I feel very uncomfortable that I am telling you other people’s personal views, and I ask you not to refer directly to what I said, but I hope that this somehow helps us understand the situation. Here is also my view as to why the Russian people are not protesting en masse:
Negative influence of the USSR: beginning with the immigration after 1917 and Stalinist purges and ending with the destruction of the will to live freely to the falling apart of the country. People didn’t live normally and so don’t want to live normally now, those who protest are mostly very young.
A non-trivial share of the people are idiots. They can’t or, for many reasons, don’t want to absorb non-one-sided information and just want to be “outside of politics”. And the most accessible information is, sadly, propaganda.
Propaganda is literally EVERYWHERE. On TV it reaches absurd proportions, and besides that special bot farms write a huge number of online comments, forming a false public opinion and swaying those who are uncertain to their side.
A huge army of siloviki (strongmen). Ukraine’s Maidan could happen because resistance [against the protestors] was not comparable to that of Russia and Belorussia. The Russian government has a huge horde of policemen and Rosgvardiya [National Guard of Russia] who get paid decent money just for brutally beating people who simply show up to a demonstration (and actually get pleasure out of doing so because they are idealistic and see enemies in those who show up). Then they imprison the people for 30 days and then create problems for them in their studies or work. And any resistance leads to a huge prison sentence. I’m not even mentioning, that people can be jailed for several years for tweets or social media posts (this is not an exaggeration!)
I hope this helps you understand the situation. I apologize for any colleagues and countrymen who may be responding to your email negatively.PS I ask you to not group the nation of Russia together with Putin and his followers, but of course I understand all the aggression and hate toward us, those who act this way have their reasons…”
I agree that we need to wean ourselves off Russian fossil fuels but it needs planning. Arguably it *needed* planning about twenty years ago but that required thinking ahead and spending money.
we've known for about 40 years we need to wean ourselves of fossil fuels......but we've allowed the fossil fuel companies and petrostates to block and divert attempts to do so.
@thols2, that's a useful but depressing insight into Russian public mindset
Purple hair = probably not a Nazi.
It could be a clever disguise, to throw us gullible Westerners off the scent - you know how devious they can be…
mattoutandabout - you are probably correct regarding the donations.
Our donations are from the WI (I'm a member). There is a local Ukranian family driving out to Poland tonight. The have asked for these specific things.
I agree funds are much better. However how do we know the money will get to the correct place, unless its a charity such as the 'Red Cross' for example.
Apologies if its already been posted, but came across this and seems to reinforce a lot of what’s been discussed here
I suppose there are two ways to read that,
1. the russians are bluffing and thier military is not half as capable as they would have us belive.
Or, 2, they are just testing the waters with the Ukraine campaign with older equipment, conscript troops, etc.
A difficult gamble to make as a layman. Presumably EU countries/governments will have a far better idea of the truth, but they won't, and shouldn't make that public, I don't think.
I agree funds are much better. However how do we know the money will get to the correct place, unless its a charity such as the ‘Red Cross’ for example.
I was advised by my Ukrainian colleague to donate here:
I'm going to try it later today after work.
I’m more amazed at leaving a vehicle full of ATGMs just sitting there. Even if the vehicle has been disabled, it’s pretty likely the Ukrainians will be able to repurpose the missiles.
I wonder if the Russian has installed a tracking device in order for them to bring it back to the "hives".
One example, but if you search ‘Russian POW’ on twitter there are dozens more. Many if not most of them are shockingly young and seemingly clueless as to why they are there, or even where they are!
I don't think it is a good idea to humiliate the "Russian POW" in that way. Rather perhaps speak to them nicely with a cup of tea and turn them instead by speaking a bit of sense into them. Then let them go home like driving them back to their unit to spread the words.
That photo of Arkady Volozh looks like a completely broken man, with little to look forward to except the loss of everything he has.
Which would place him on a level footing with the rest of the Russian people.
Just thinking about it, what are Russians in Ukraine doing in the main: fleeing west with other evacuees, fleeing east/north through potentially the fighting back into Russia/Belarus or staying put?
we’ve known for about 40 years we need to wean ourselves of fossil fuels……but we’ve allowed the fossil fuel companies and petrostates to block and divert attempts to do so.
The truth is they haven't manged to stop it (yet).
UK renewable energy generation has increased from 1.8 GW average in 2012 to around 10 GW average today. That is a five fold increase!
Last year 40% of our energy was generated from fossil fuels with the other 60% from low-carbon fuels (renewables 25%, biomass 3%, nuclear, 17%...). Renewables are on-track to roughly double by the end of this decade (from around 25% to around 50%). In that scenario, fossil fuels will account for less than 20% of generation. We are not going to be free of fossil fuels by then, but the current reserves will be stretched much further and the demand/price will be much lower.
Keep in mind that the recent strike prices for off-shore wind and solar were less than half the cost of gas generation prior to this winters energy crisis and around 4 times less expensive now.
A similar story is unfolding in most developed countries
"A Seed grows with no sound but a tree falls with huge noise."
One example, but if you search ‘Russian POW’ on twitter
One of the Geneva convention rules is to not share images of POW's. Sharing their picture online can be considered a war crime.
told not to give the game away (I’ll pay you back later) by selling off assets ?
Or that they didnt think the response would be so severe. Even now its giving plenty of time to extract the cash before it gets locked down.
Plus I am not sure they are chums as such more a feudal lord and king relationship where they would happily sacrifice each other for personal gain.
1. the russians are bluffing and thier military is not half as capable as they would have us belive.
There has been a suggestion for some time that Russian military equipment isn’t as good as it wants the rest of the world to think it is. It’s all fine and dandy dropping bombs on people when backing up an autocratic government, like Syria, but they were driven out of Afghanistan, just like we were in the 19th Century, and like the Americans were more recently.
Their Hind helicopter gunships were intimidating, but in reality highly vulnerable to a bloke sitting on a mountain-side with a knock-off AK-47 shooting the pilot through the unarmoured windshield glass!
They haven’t fought an armoured war in decades, and things have moved on a bit from fighting Nazis in Stalingrad with T-38 tanks able to cope with terribly cold conditions, that caused the German machinery to freeze solid.
One of the Geneva convention rules is to not share images of POW’s. Sharing their picture online can be considered a war crime.
Not quite as cut and dried as that. It only applies to the state or detaining power. I would imagine some of the twitter images fall foul of that if taken by the Ukrainian military, but probably not if the images were taken by Ukrainian civilians.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2003/mar/28/broadcasting.Iraqandthemedia2
One of the Geneva convention rules is to not share images of POW’s. Sharing their picture online can be considered a war crime.
Not quite, you cannot parade them as an act of public curiosity.
The Third Geneva Convention of 1949 (the Prisoners of War Convention) contains no provisions specifically regulating the circum- stances in which prisoners of war can be photographed. The only article which touches on the subject is Article 13, paragraph 2, which states that:
"... prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity."
This prohibition is not new. Article 2, paragraph 2 of the 1929 Geneva Prisoners of War Convention used almost identical language:
"[Prisoners of war] shall at all times be humanely treated and protected, particularly against acts of violence, from insults and from public curiosity."
2
According to Flory, writing during World War II about the nego-
tiations which resulted in the 1929 Convention, it was:
"a general principle, frequently affirmed... that prisoners must be
treated with humanity...
Ukraine Combat Medical Project
This is being run by a friend of mine.
Our goal is to raise as much money as possible in order to buy pre-hospital trauma care equipment for primarily the Ukrainian fighters but also to help treat the civilians who have been caught up in the violence.
The plan is to make the first delivery as soon as possible and provision has already been made for the first aid convoy to travel from the UK to the Ukraine.
Please help..
https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/ukraine-combat-medical-project
but in reality highly vulnerable to a bloke sitting on a mountain-side with a knock-off AK-47 shooting the pilot through the unarmoured windshield glass!
I thought they were pretty well armoured as in able to shrug off a .5 cal. Hence why the USA ended up sending Stingers to counter them.
The good old days in the USSR....
The sanctions need time to bite properly, we'll see this happen in several ways over the coming days and weeks. For example, Russian airlines are cut off from the EU and additionally maintenance will be an issue given that the supply of parts for Russian operated western civilian aircraft will be subject to sanction too.
Russia will be reliant upon foreign currency reserves to prop up the rouble for a while, but this obviously won't last forever. Less hard cash floating around the economy will mean that those further down Putin's food chain will be cut off, while those nearer the top will be fighting over an ever diminishing largesse. We are also likely to see and hear much less from the individuals and media outlets that have been open admirers of Putin and Russia in the recent past too.
Ways round the sanctions will also take time to emerge, but I am sure folk are working on it.
It must be so hard being a trained pilot in the neighbouring countries knowing that you could reduce that vile road train of death heading towards Kyiv to ash and save thousands of innocent lives. But you can't because one man will destroy the planet if you do.
😔
BBC reporting that according to Moscow nearly 500 troops have been killed, which of course is never going to be accurate.
Would be interested to know if this figure is being published in Russia, 500 would seem like a lot of deaths from a "Military Operation".
There has been a suggestion for some time that Russian military equipment isn’t as good as it wants the rest of the world to think it is.
The only reason Russia is considered a superpower and anyone takes it seriously is because of its nukes. Russia's economy is only slightly larger than Italy's and its defence budget in 2021 was $70 billion which is actually less than the $71billion the UK spent. So about the same amount of money spread over far more personnel, tanks, aircraft and ships would suggest their current underperformance in the Ukraine may well be the best they can muster. BTW the USA defence budget in 2021 was $778 billion. If hostilites were restricted to conventional warfare NATO could easily eject them from the Ukraine.
that vile road train of death heading towards Kyiv
I'm sure that if the UA had a chance they would've used one of the drones by now. Likely to be heavily guarded with Russian AA.
Ukraine Air force is still operating.
The only reason Russia is considered a superpower and anyone takes it seriously is because of its nukes.
And we made Ukraine give up its nukes, to help keep us all safe, including Russia.
BBC reporting that according to Moscow nearly 500 troops have been killed, which of course is never going to be accurate.
The Ukrainians are claiming 6000 Russian KIA. Obviously the truth lies somewhere between those two figures.
Would be interested to know if this figure is being published in Russia, 500 would seem like a lot of deaths from a “Military Operation”.
It is. Headline on the Russia Today website
https://www.rt.com/russia/551084-military-fatalities-in-ukraine/
Maybe, just maybe the Russian public might be getting some more balanced reporting about what is going on
https://twitter.com/bbcpress/status/1499063907675258892?s=20&t=MYEbmivsENuLsinclBcv6Q
And we made Ukraine give up its nukes, to help keep us all safe, including Russia.
On the precondition that Russia would never threaten the borders of Ukraine, IIRC.
Maybe, just maybe the Russian public might be getting some more balanced reporting about what is going on
Not for long, I suspect, if they're going to shout about it.
Not really. The reason communism ended was basically economic.
So if the iron curtain does fall again I guess we'll see a similar economic demise.
Can anyone spot an issue with the map which suggests where the sympathies of the 'Stop The War Coalition' lie?
Not sure the RT.com website is available in Russia.
It contains lots of naughty words, like 'invasion' for a start. It would fall foul of Roskomnadzor's requirements.
So I have to assume RT.com isn't available in the same form to those within Russia.
I agree with the idea of stop the war, but they seem a little wide of the mark there.
Edit - nice that they have already decided that crimea belongs to Russia!
Can anyone spot an issue with the map which suggests where the sympathies of the ‘Stop The War Coalition’ lie?
Good to see Andy Murray* is taking strides to widen his career now that his tennis playing days are on the wain...
😂😂😂😂
*JOKE Am sure it's not the 'Andy Murray' and for the avoidance of doubt, and definitely no stain on the good character of the 'Andy Murray' who, by all accounts is a thoroughly nice bloke and doubtless fully in support of the defence of Ukraine.
I see the private jets belonging to putins pet oligarchs are still flying.
Jack Sweeney, a Florida teen who tracks Elon Musk's private jet online has a new aviation-themed target: Russian oligarchs and billionaires.
https://twitter.com/ruoligarchjets?s=21
https://twitter.com/putinjet?s=21
Just checked, it's 1300 miles to the Ukranian border with Poland or about 22hrs. Which, for someone used to long drives in the USA, is not that far.
BBC reporting that Russia has issued demands for peace relating to banning certain weapons from ever being in Ukraine. Also that Russia accepts Zelensky as the legit president - is this not a major development?
Andrew Murray was part of the Straight Left team that would be running number 10 now if Labour had won the last election. While he was in various forms of the Communist Party in the UK he was known for wanting stronger connections with Russia rather than Europe, a difference of opinion with others that was often central to the splitting and renaming of the party. He joined Labour when Corbyn became leader to become one of his key advisors.
The sanctions need time to bite properly, we’ll see this happen in several ways
Indeed, it's a war of attrition, if the Ukraine can hold on a bit longer, russia is FUBAR.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=EUR&view=2Y
certain weapons from ever being in Ukraine. Also that Russia accepts Zelensky as the legit president – is this not a major development?
Because they've been so trustworthy so far, there's absolutely no way Russia will suddenly accept him when their sole aim here is to displace him...
Day 7 now. Kharkiv will face a terrible decision soon - withdraw or fight it out. Have seen some experts saying might be better to trade space for time.
Airvent - yes agreed, totally untrustworthy, but interesting they’ve even felt the need to say it.
I am no economist or military expert or nuanced politician, but what will Putin achieve with this war now.
If in another month the Russian Army has destroyed everything and occupied the whole of Ukraine, what will be left
Quite a lot actually.
The largest natural gas reserves in Europe, after Russia. These are currently pretty much untapped, ironically the Ukraine could be the solution for removing our reliance on Russian gas, which makes we wonder if this is the reason Putin is so keen to get his grubby hands on the Ukraine.
On top of that they have a massive amount of precious metals including huge lithium fields that will become increasingly important for EV production. They are also one of the worlds top produces of wheat and corn.
Guerrilla warfare is their only hope really. Nato won't put boots on the ground or planes in the air so zero point in waiting for that to happen.
What the Ukrainian defence force needs are thousands of blonde girls with beanies and some real munitions.
Laws, AT4 rockets, Claymore mines RPGs, toyota hilux with a 50cal
You cannot build a defensive position and expect to hold it with TU80 tanks, guided missiles and multiple rockets systems in front of you
The infantry will take a hit, run away, call in artillery, pound the quickly built fortifications into dust tjen walk on by.
Let convergence take effect, make every junction, corner, choke point a kill zone. Use small groups of 4 to 6 individuals to decimate foot soldiers from drains, ruins, Tower blocks then run like hell. Use local knowledge, over lapping ambush sites, halt vehicles then use them ad barricades.
Drawing a metaphorical line in the sand is going yo get lots of mortar rounds dropping on your head. If you are 50meters away up a back alley your safe enough.
The usa could airfreight tons of hardware rrally quickly in a B1 lancer, modify the bomb bay then mach1 it over the Atlantic. Land in Poland, meet beanie girl at tge border with a few of her mates. Hand over the goods 5 minutes training then away into the night
Ruskis might hit a couple of vehicles e by chance but i would expect the majority to get through.
Kill enough Russian soldiers and then retreat in stages, let the next wave come through. Driving a main battle tank up a road does not constitute taking a city. You need hundreds of troops to do that and tanks in town are vulnerable to ambush being rather large and 50t. You dont need to destroy the hull, just pop one track off, which is do able for a blonde chick with a beanie, and a rocket launcher.
Georgia has just applied for EU membership
If Russia gets away with this I think they are very likely to be next
. They are also one of the worlds top produces of wheat and corn.
Not this year they won't be. Soon be time to plant this year's crop, and that may not be happening.
BBC reporting that Russia has issued demands for peace relating to banning certain weapons from ever being in Ukraine. Also that Russia accepts Zelensky as the legit president – is this not a major development?
Would be a major reversal of previous demands to take NATO membership off the table, and to recognise Russian ownership of Crimea, if those are not included.
If so, Russia wants out, quickly, and this may be the point at which they can apply maximum military pressure, with the axe hanging over Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odessa.
big increases reported in ruble / crypto transactions
There's a whiff of Mark Francois in some of the posts above
Kill enough Russian soldiers and then retreat in stages, let the next wave come through.
For someone on a mountain bike forum you've given a disturbing amount of thought on how to efficiently murder a lot of people.
A lot of Call of Duty tactics being recited as the way ahead, lets hope Ukrainians are up to speed on the latest tactics for CoD and Battlefield!
I mentioned it earlier but I think we need to take this election tampering/far-right promoting thing a bit more seriously from now on.
Turns out it's not just a mischievous former spy getting up to his high-jinks but has in fact been a decade+ long plan to destabilise any democratic government.
While he was in various forms of the Communist Party in the UK he was known for wanting stronger connections with Russia rather than Europe,
The rest of the Stop the War lineup contains more Russophiles - one of them used to be in the Communist Party of East Germany, another is an academic whose list of publications seems somewhat anti-NATO, soft on Putin. To balance that out, obviously, there is Corbs, who we are told is a historically centre-left politician 🙂
That Stop the war seminar pretty much sums up why the tories have had a clear run at this country for years, and will do for many more, how Diane Abbot is still a sitting MP is baffling.
Marine Le-Pen needs punted in the chuff all the way to Russia, and while I’m on a rant can we also punt Aaron Banks, Nigel Farage and associated lackeys to the ****ing moon.
On the subject of removing Putin it's the only way for a more stable Russian contribution to the world I'm not talking forceful removal by non Russian force.
internal removal is probably the only way i can see this ending without NATO conflict and let's be honest here that's a global war spreading from the east.
If Putin takes Ukraine Poland won't let a huge Russian build up on the boarder happen it would be a tinder box just waiting to go up.
The sanctions are working and will cripple the average folk of Russia before Putin feels the pain they are working just not fast enough.
It's a shame Israel won't had over iron dome systems to keep the sky's clear that would help.
All in a terrible situation of 1 man's doing
It’s a shame Israel won’t had over iron dome systems to keep the sky’s clear that would help.
Speaking of Israel, I didn't even realise they were now reliant on Russia:
At the risk of sounding like I have to check under the bed every night to see if Putin is hiding there, I think he's been moving all the pieces into place for a long time.
We must confront Russian propaganda – even when it comes from those we respect
George Monbiot
Talks about Pilger, Murray and others as regards echoing Putin’s lines relating to this (don’t call it a) war.
To balance that out, obviously, there is Corbs, who we are told is a historically centre-left politician 🙂
Tireless campaigner for peace as well
Georgia has just applied for EU membership
Amazing news
When do we apply? Or do we just keep carrying on down the track we are on… dividing ourselves off from the rest of Europe and sticking with Putin’s plan?
That strikes home for me. I used to have a lot of respect for Craig Murray for calling out a despot who boiled political opponents alive and losing his ambassadorship because of it.*
Now his stuff reads as if he's auditioning for RT.
*Actually, thinking about it, calling out someone for boiling people alive isn't a particularly high bar but apparently it was still too high for Blair.
5 countries voted against at the UN, including Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria.
Thats quite a roques gallery of shithole countries that would be pretty far down my list of place to live
As for Israel, is this the same country that the west has tirelessly and unwaveringly supported, most of the time when they’ve been in the wrong?
It's horrible seeing trained army's throwing hand grandes at old people. C4 news
Oh and the Ukraine people are putting the Russian tanks on ebay apparently.
Humans eh
"There’s a whiff of Mark Francois in some of the posts above"
Yep, let's all strap rocket launchers to our Santa Cruz Bronsons and go down and sort them all out.
(Some of the comments from the ex military posters is quite informative though.)
The number of ways that the Russian people are being given the message that the outside world is against the (don’t call it a) war just keeps increasing all the time…
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499096871557640197?s=21
After talk about young Russian protestors…
https://twitter.com/aperegarom/status/1499067632749797385?s=21
Oh and the Ukraine people are putting the Russian tanks on ebay apparently.
It's a tragedy but you have to admire the humour! That's about as Slav as you can get.
The landscape has changed, we are about to witness the wall go back up now, i can't see any other way, in this modern age, a near 70 year old man who is quite possibly not right in the head is about to set Russia and supporting countries back 30 years.
The next few years we'll see a lot of movement in NATO and the EU, as well as western armies modernising a bit more, look at Germany, they are about to go full speed ahead into building their armed forces, crazy times ahead.
Just been watching Matt Frie's interview of an Russian MP, adamant that they are on a mission of de-nazification.
I can't believe he held it together (just), I'm in bits.
I wonder how much added defence spending will stimulate other economies?
For someone on a mountain bike forum you’ve given a disturbing amount of thought on how to efficiently murder a lot of people.
Clearly knows what he is talking about!
Anyway, Vlad’s a bit of a judo fanboy himself… He must have discussed genocide tactics with a few of his chums on errant threads on Judo forums by now, surely…? 🤔
And for those who don't ebay their captured tanks, they are tax exempt!:
“Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and wondering how to report it? Keep calm and keep defending the Fatherland!” read a statement from the Ukrainian National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NACP) seen by Interfax Ukraine.
“It is not necessary to declare captured Russian tanks and other equipment because their cost does not exceed 100 living wages (248,100 UAH),” the agency explained. The sum is equivalent to approximately $8,300.