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Can you guys post the sites where you are getting info on what is happening other than the obvious ones like the BBC and Sky News
cheers
I'm interested to know that with the two Oligarchs frothing about EU lies with regard to their relationship with Putin, whether thats a good thing or not - they aren't siding from us but are they distancing from Putin as well?
Also, with cyber attacks now at UK Banks, military hardware being provided by multiple countries - its hard to see how WW3 can be avoided now. There's some comfort in that a big part of the world is on-side, but little comfort that within 20-30 minutes of some nervous people working in a Silo pressing a button there is no world.
I'm beginning to think I should have moved out of London sooner than I planned.
try some of these -
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought
https://twitter.com/RealCynicalFox
https://twitter.com/RALee85
Sorry, the forum has 'helpfully' embedded all those links!
Mikeypies Peter Caddick Adams on twitter is a good source. Well balanced and insightful…
Don't know if this is true but it could have a huge impact. Taking out their satellite intelligence
https://mobile.twitter.com/xxNB65/status/1498563301525102594?t=z-mr-g_ssSKzYuj2BzT4Ew&s=19
I have a feeling some old testament fire & brimstone would be en route.
I don’t think we can say how he would react if he felt vaguely threatened by NATO, though.
I'm getting a lot of info from reddit. But you have to take it with a healthy dose of scepticism
"I’m beginning to think I should have moved out of London sooner than I planned."
Given that London is where most of Putin's enablers live I reckon you'll be safe as houses,. In fact if you're renting, the odds are your home is already owned by a Russian.
I'm getting most of my info from on here.
Thus far, Chewkw has proven to be a better analyst than what I've seen on most of the BBC / Sky output etc...
Agreed, despite chewkw being an annoyance in a number of other threads his inputs here are good
I don't know whether this is a good take or not, point is that we really have no idea about Putin's state of mind.
https://twitter.com/SnellArthur/status/1498592847280451585
Although obviously not as up to date as Twitter I find the coverage from France24 & DW News much better than Sky/BBC.
Edit - I should add I’m just on a 24/7 YouTube binge cycle on the TV from Sky/BBC/DW/France24 with a few ‘Merican ones thrown in and sat with my phone in my hand looking at Twitter.
Don’t think this one was mentioned,
https://mobile.twitter.com/uaweapons
Agreed about recent posts from Chewkw in this thread. I haven't agreed with all his points, but they have been put well, and are of interest and relevant. Credit where credit is due. Keep it up please!
Al Jazeera has a live updates page that quite concise and up to date. FT should be on everyone's reading list for reportage and comment, as it's usually on the money (quite literally) and insightful.
Been round a few of those tweet threads. A Russian soldier texting his mum telling her they aren't on an exercise and it's a real war - shortly before being killed. He said that the locals were lying in front of tanks.
I wonder if the fact that Russian soldiers think they are the good guys or at least not the bad ones is why they aren't just driving the tanks over the civilians*
* which IIRC was what the US did in Iraq. Anyone remember those videos of armoured convoys speeding through the cities and mashing civillian cars out of the way with the civillians still in them just driving somewhere?
Others drawing parallels with Vietnam, with the Russians doing what the US did.
Any talk about the Russian army not being prepared or not being given direction I personally am taking as western propaganda.
For me this has followed how I would expect it to have. Smaller battles to show intent, allow the civilians who are going to leave to leave. Increase the artillery strikes while bringing forward your main battle troops.
Maybe some of the logistical errors being reported are correct, but ultimately it’s always just been a matter of time before we get to the point where the mass artillery and air strikes start. This then allows pretty much free reign for the infantry and tank battalions in the city.
I may be being incredibly pessimistic, and my heart really goes out to the people in Ukraine.
I’d also say that if I was Poland I’d be a bit nervous about what Putin may be thinking he will do next.
I’m beginning to think I should have moved out of London sooner than I planned.
Just don't move to Argyll.
I think the 'west' should say that all sanctions should remain in place until Putin is handed over for war crimes. Option for lamp post hanging.
I wondered earlier what the Russians would need to import for the war effort that they might find hard to get now. Semiconductors?
Earlier in the thread I asked how individuals can help. The BBC has a useful article showing charities with appeals currently in place and where the money goes - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60562260 (although strangely the Disasters Emergency Committee aren't involved yet).
Apparently you can also donate via the Ukrainian embassy ("With Ukraine" fund) in which case some of the money support the military, however the Ukrainian Embassy website was down (unless anyone has a working link).
-- Edit --
@Caher the thing is, Bush and Blair are free men (and incredibly wealthy). They did very a very similar act with the invasion of Iraq.
I’m former military so absolutely not a Putin sympathiser, as British as it gets, but our invasion was pretty much based on lies.
Two wrongs don’t make a right. But being a nuclear power really gives us (and Russia and the US) impunity to behave this way. No comeback to the cowardly bastards who send the troops in, ultimately it’s the civilians who are impacted the most, taking decades to get back to the previous normality, while the rich are just richer.
For a bit of perspective on historical events which have influenced Ukrainian attitudes
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
That's just one. We were in Kyiv four years ago and I sh;t you not, we'd turn a new corner and there would be ANOTHER memorial to something dreadful where thousands (or more!) died. Poor buggers can't seem to catch a break.
Two wrongs don’t make a right. But being a nuclear power really gives us (and Russia and the US) impunity to behave this way.
I was talking to someone about this recently. Can you imagine how popular the invasion of Iraq would have been if the Iraqis had looked like us, spoke the same language as us, and had access to twitter/FB/instagram/TikTok etc?
Obviously, the Russian government can counter this with their state broadcasters but surely ordinary people must be getting bombarded with almost live videos and images.
sorry if bindun, Johnson press conference.
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1498621118076309506?s=20&t=AJGO3e1B9CN8ZsaynHnqVw
Can you imagine how popular the invasion of Iraq would have been if the Iraqis had looked like us
The invasion of Iraq was popular?!
I don't want to watch that scumbag. What happens? Someone heckles him I presume?
Surprised he didn't pull the normal face he pulls when he's being criticised in public.
Can you imagine how popular the invasion of Iraq would have been if the Iraqis had looked like us, spoke the same language as us, and had access to twitter/FB/instagram/TikTok etc?
Or how much support the population would have, if we were broadcasting unpixilated pictures of children being blown up in their bedrooms from our missile strikes gone astray, or due to incorrect intelligence ?.
The invasion of Iraq was popular?!
Of course it was. As i certainly dont remember many headlines saying STOP THE WAR.
There were some people, but they were demonized in the press and in public social media forums.
I don’t want to watch that scumbag. What happens? Someone heckles him I presume?
Someone asked him a proper question requiring a committal answer. But we all know how far that's likely to get with Johnson
He essentially went as close to a war zone as he dared (ie: nowhere near), to host a press conference where he said absolutely nothing at all.
Basically, he's now competing with Instagram Liz for photo ops
Thats where we're at as a country.
Global Briain, eh?
I was talking to someone about this recently. Can you imagine how popular the invasion of Iraq would have been if the Iraqis had looked like us, spoke the same language as us, and had access to twitter/FB/instagram/TikTok etc?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36746453
The invasion of Iraq was popular?!
It was popular enough that Blair and Bush didn't end up swinging from a lamp post.
While the majority may have been against the 'war', both Bush and Blair were re-elected afterwards. Nevermind forcibly removed from office by a popular uprising.
Given that even he surely can’t be blind to effect he’s had on world opinion and the isolation of Russia by the rest of the world over the last few days, to even conceive that this would be a winning bet he could pull off. He would (by launching a strike onto a European capital or target) lay Russia open to far more devastating retaliatory attacks.
I'm a few pages behind today, but I feel it's worth mentioning that Putin is on record saying that a world with no Russia isn't worth having.
He's properly insane.
...
So Johnson just confirmed the UK won't go to war with Russia in that clip. What does that mean if NATO does?
The invasion of Iraq was popular?!
Of course it was. As i certainly dont remember many headlines saying STOP THE WAR
Just a million people marching on the streets against a war?
I’m a few pages behind today, but I feel it’s worth mentioning that Putin is on record saying that a world with no Russia isn’t worth having.
No one in the West is proposing a World without Russia. But it would be nice if it had a functioning democracy and didn't swan about invading neighbouring countries.
I wonder if Ukraine have got their application to join NATO in yet.
That's the depressing thing about it, all those people and it still wasn't enough to stop it or to hold him to account.
Iraq certainly changed my outlook on my chosen career & politics soon after, not many good memories of 2008-2010.
So Johnson just confirmed the UK won’t go to war with Russia in that clip. What does that mean if NATO does?
Without wishing to derail the thread, Johnson has a tendency to sit at the back of the room saying 'ooh, can't do that' until the mood begins to waver- he has an uncanny ability to pick this change early, and then rushes to the front, touting both the need for urgent change and himself to lead.
Just a million people marching on the streets against a war?
IWM Anti war protests
Sure, but my point was more to compare the lack of response to our attack on a country (like I said, Blair was re-elected, nevermind forcibly removed from office) with Putin's Russia.
If, instead of invading Iraq and causing the devastation we caused there, we had invaded Ireland and killed women and children who looked like us and spoke like us, would Blair have faced a revolution and been removed? If people had access to videos the way they do today would that have made a difference?
Because that is essentially what we are asking people in Russia to do. Putin is not going to stop for anything.
The narrative of the young soldiers smartphone convo with his mother is a short but brutal home-team snapshot for the Russian people. But are all the sanctions, public outcry, casualties & fatalities enough to cause change?
Just a million people marching on the streets against a war?
And were they demonized by the press ?. I can just see the daily mail spouting some sort of negativity about them 😆
In fact, we could probably find out peoples attitude to the issue on here as there would have been an emotive thread somewhere back in the STW archives.
But nobody likes being reminded of their gullibility. And to be fair im probably one of them. Too many horrific details came out about the Hussein regime not for me to get seriously upset about it.
That was of course i found out the US had supported him for 10+ years. Maybe it was at that point I stopped looking towards our own allies as some sort of benevolent group.
Some excellent points about the idea of a no-fly zone. It's just a slogan and the people calling for one don't understand what it would entail. It would entail defeating Russia militarily because they would not accept it and would retaliate. So, NFZ is just a coded demand that NATO join the war. If NATO joins the war, it will almost certainly go nuclear.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1498638221898657798
I think the comparisons and contrasts to brown people being blown up are certainly uncomfortable, but also a bit unfair.
As well as the very natural and inevitable bias due to proximity, in the case of the Middle East, there is also the long history of failed solutions. There isn't a clear way out there.
In Europe, we have a substantial history of reasonably peaceful and sort-of democratic governance. I'm not claiming everything has been rosy here, but watching the unprovoked destruction of a neighbouring functioning democratic state which has substantial popular support is very different from wondering about which despot you'd rather have in charge in some fairly remote place that you've never visited.
That was of course i found out the US had supported him for 10+ years. Maybe it was at that point I stopped looking towards our own allies as some sort of benevolent group.
I can't think of a single example of a conflict since WW2 where there hasn't been so much ambiguity and duplicity that it's impossible to say that, on balance, we should absolutely be involved in this conflict.
This conflict is the first conflict in my lifetime, like I said, possibly since WW2 where there is an absolute right side and an absolute wrong side (or at least as close as you can get to absolutes in geopolitics).
It doesn't mean we stop scrutinizing our own politicians and continue to look at our own actions, but I don't think you can say, 'we invaded Iraq, therefore we can't criticize Putin.'
And, of course, we don't forget that there are human beings involved everywhere. I share an office with a Russian and she's worried that she's not going to be able to send money home to support her mother anymore.
She probably more worried about the friends she has living in Ukraine though.
And were they demonized by the press ?. I can just see the daily mail spouting some sort of negativity about them 😆
Genuine question, were you around in 2003? My fault for assuming that everyone here is >40, white and male! But here's the link to the Daily Fail news archive from the day after the protests. It's questioning of Blair and reflective of the views from the protest.
I think the comparisons and contrasts to brown people being blown up are certainly uncomfortable, but also a bit unfair.
As well as the very natural and inevitable bias due to proximity, in the case of the Middle East, there is also the long history of failed solutions. There isn’t a clear way out there.
Sure, my point was more that this is what the equivalent is for Russia now (ie, it would be like us invading Ireland if we'd been getting told for years that Ireland was being run by Dublin's version of Saddam Hussein).
It doesn’t mean we stop scrutinizing our own politicians and continue to look at our own actions, but I don’t think you can say, ‘we invaded Iraq, therefore we can’t criticize Putin.’
No, i for one an not claiming that. But at the same time we have to acknowledge our actions. To have charges laid against the Russian military that this aggressive invasion constitutes a war crime is to deny we've been doing the exact same thing,and many times before.
As you said, Bush and Blair arent hanging off a lampost.
If we can at least acknowledge our actions, im sure it will go a long was to finding forgiveness in ourselves, others and maybe look more to finding peaceful solutions to our differences.
The Ukrainians are controling the media narrative so comprehensively at the moment and soliciting an overwhelmingly emotional response from the West. Calling for a no fly zone is another part of their hearts and minds strategy.
Wether they think it would actually happen or they are just making a chess move in a game of diplomatic brinkmanship is another question.
It would be a disaster if we were to take it seriously. A disaster for us, for Ukrainians and for Russians. The only winner would be Putin because even a pyrhic victory is a victory for him.
Genuine question, were you around in 2003?
I know that question wasn't aimed at me but yes, I was.
I was also around in 2005 when the majority of the country voted for a Blair led government.
Whatever the strength of feeling was, it wasn't enough for the people to storm the gates of Downing Street and it wasn't even enough to vote the mass-murdering **** out of office.
The question is, will the Russians be better than we were? I hope so.
This conflict is the first conflict in my lifetime, like I said, possibly since WW2 where there is an absolute right side and an absolute wrong side
Sure about that? Have you read about the history of this conflict? It didn't just start last week.
It looks like the Artillery is about to commence their attack. Russians saying this is to stop the information attacks against Russia. They are urging people to leave their homes as the onslaught is about to start.
Jeez. This is heart breaking.
Sure about that? Have you read about the history of this conflict? It didn’t just start last week.
No, it started back in 2007.
In fact, if you want to start going back through the timeline we're going to end up discussing the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
However, once you invade a neighbouring country, no matter the justification (please, let's not start going through hypothetical justifications) it becomes pretty binary, imo.
It was popular enough that Blair and Bush didn’t end up swinging from a lamp post.
While the majority may have been against the ‘war’, both Bush and Blair were re-elected afterwards. Nevermind forcibly removed from office by a popular uprising.
Because those were the only two options we had? Either support the war or storm the capital and murder the prime minister? I'm struggling to follow your reasoning there tbh
Terrible. I imagine they will give Kyiv a huge barrage before sending troops in.
Looking at the relative size of Kyiv compared to some of the other places attacked in this way, Grozny for example, it is far far larger, and the scope for casualties far greater…
will the Russians be better than we were?
I hope so too. At least we have a democratic, legal and law enforcement systems that allow a million people out onto the streets to protest against the government.
One lesson to pick up from Iraq is how important there is to have a plan for a replacement government. Doubtless Putin has one for Ukraine (in fact it appears that the intelligence has even identified who will lead it FCO press release)
A revolution in Russia is risky because there is no alternative power structure to fill any vacuum. The least bad short term option would be military, but even they would face huge opposition from Putin's friendly agencies like the FSB.
Unlikely that an overthrown Putin will end in anything but hardship for the Russians. Again...
I was also around in 2005 when the majority of the country voted for a Blair led government.
Aside from when you look at 2001 the majority had dropped a lot (admittedly continuing a trend from 1997) and there was the problem that the main alternative was equally war mad.
The Libdems did see an increase in votes though.
The optics of a Polish owned, Soviet built, Ukranian flagged Mig 29 going up a against a Russian Mig 29 is one thing. It reflects the fact that the Cold War never really ended and this conflict is another episode in the protracted break up of the Soviet Union.
A Eurofighter even entering Ukranian airspace would be reflective of something else entirely.
Either support the war or storm the capital and murder the prime minister?
Actually, I also gave the option of not re-electing mass-murderers. We didn't choose that option either.
Anyway, my point was that it's probably wishful thinking that Russians are going to somehow overthrow Putin.
I then made the point that, while our war was thousands of miles away against people who didn't look like us, didn't speak our language, and had few shared cultural traits, Putin's war is more like us invading Ireland in the age of social media.
So maybe it's not completely hopeless.
I hope so too. At least we have a democratic, legal and law enforcement systems that allow a million people out onto the streets to protest against the government.
Thanks to Priti that will soon be illegal.
However, once you invade a neighbouring country, no matter the justification (please, let’s not start going through hypothetical justifications) it becomes pretty binary, imo.
Hmmmmmmmm I wouldn't call it binary. And justifications aren't always hypothetical, these are the things that need to be decided upon in every conflict.
If I understand this, the Russian military leaders are telling Putin that they're ramping up nuclear readiness but signaling to NATO that they're not really.
@thols2, can you expand on that?
What’s the signals from the military leaders giving the impression that they’re not preparing their Nuclear arsenal?
Hmmmmmmmm I wouldn’t call it binary. And justifications aren’t always hypothetical, these are the things that need to be decided upon in every conflict.
Well, if you want to play devil's advocate and make the case for the invasion, be my guest.
While I can see and understand where Putin's paranoia is coming from, we're beyond the point that those concerns are relevant to the current situation, imo.
Arguably, we should have been beyond that point when he invaded Georgia but that's another debate.
The NFZ could only be achieved if every country willing to donates AA hardware, and the UAF ground their remaining air assets
With Patriot and Javelin in numbers plus some shoulder launched AA weapons it would make it hard to fly CIS airstrikes
Then there is the training as the manual wont be in Cyrillic, so no boots on the ground but alot of firepower
Also, you need to interpret the facts from the noise. Are the ruskis firing dumb missiles into cities or dropping bombs from planes? Rockets or jdam type weapons, if its iron bombs from a plane, yes AA tech will help. If its truck launched missiles, not so much.
Saddam lobbed big missiles at Tel Aviv,
Which are easier to intercept, multiple small rockets, much much harder
Phalanx might but they tend to be ship mounted.
What do we have anyway that we could donate that would make a difference? Cant see high tech being risked as the ruskis would love to capture some hardware intact.
Ypu can bet the us are wargaming this constantly and looking at how to shoot up a convoy without air superiority or man portable weapons.
Lots of single use drones with a nice 3 to 5kg warhead that could be flown
remotely using basic model aircraft controls not at the 3 million bucks of a Tomahawk cruise missile would probably be very welcome right now, old school shed built with smart phone camera linked via elons satellite array.
Its ok for you lot, im next to Portsmouth, home of the 2 aircraft carriers and assorted other navy vessels. Be good to go in the initial blast wave, not like the guys in when the wind blows.
I hope so too. At least we have a democratic, legal and law enforcement systems that allow a million people out onto the streets to protest against the government.
Thanks to Priti that will soon be illegal.
Yip… it pretty vacant and this mob get their way, you won’t be seeing any mass protests ever again in the UK
Maybe Boris will change the law so he can finally get to use some water cannons?
Well, if you want to play devil’s advocate and make the case for the invasion, be my guest.
I'm a pacifist so I won't. I'm just explaining where other people might get their justification from.
What’s the signals from the military leaders giving the impression that they’re not preparing their Nuclear arsenal?
As I understand it, they told Putin they are heightening readiness, cancelling leave, etc. However, those critical jobs are always fully staffed and will cancel leave whenever they have to. If they started dispersing mobile launchers, changing submarine deployments, or keeping armed bombers airborne 24/7, the U.S. would spot that as hostile. Cancelling leave won't rate.
An interesting explanation of the heightened state of alert of Russian strategic forces by Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu.
Since these command centers have been fully manned, this looks like a gesture to calm Putin down without doing anything that my look like a step towards nuclear escalation.
Since these command centers have been fully manned, this looks like a gesture to calm Putin down without doing anything that my look like a step towards nuclear escalation.
I’m a pacifist so I won’t. I’m just explaining where other people might get their justification from.
Like I said, there are no end of justifications if you go looking for them. I wasn't even joking when I said we would end up discussing the Austro-Hungarian empire.
I'm sure Putin has been looking at old maps and making up all sorts of justifications.
Edit: forget it.
Just had a scarily surreal interaction whilst getting my hair cut just now.
Usual place, not usual staff though. An obviously slavic woman from her appearance and accent, seemed very jovial. She made the usual conversation about asking how my day was etc, then conversation progressed onto COVID restrictions easing not sitting too well with her (I agreed) and then she started talking about holiday plans... I briefly said I'd not made any, she said "you should, everywhere is open again, be nice to go abroad again"... I then politely said about my friend who was saying about his planned holiday to Romania this summer, only 30 or 40 miles from the Ukrainian border...
Her response... "Oh it's ok, it's all over, haven't you heard, Putin has cancelled the war, he is pulling all of the troops out of Ukraine"...
I very nearly walked out mid haircut!
Seriously, read your post again and consider apologising because I actually found that ad-hominin attack pretty unpleasant.
@Flaperon my apologies. There has been some pretty ignorant posts made on this thread so far regarding all sorts of things, misinformation about weaponry, political stances, and several people professing their strategic battle plans as if they were some kind of highly decorated battle generals, not to mention obvious lack of knowledge of geography by some, and a complete disregard for nuances of anything written down that wouldn't perhaps happen in written conversation (i'll admit to being guilty of that myself).
I am severely anxious because of the whole situation, I will not lie. Part of my coping mechanism the last few days has been using this thread for positive views and scraps of information, and I have also shared any information I have been able to get hold of myself too. I now understand you weren't being literal, but it is worth considering the possible effect of written word being taken literally before committing to press submit. There are people out there that don't even understand that Taiwan isn't a part or China, or that it has its own political struggles, and certainly a significant amount of people geographically unaware enough to realise it is indeed an island in itself in the South China sea (well several islands actually, just the main one is much larger than the other smaller ones).
In a thread where people have proposed the re-introduction of Cold War era weaponry and tactics to deal with the threat posed by the Russian forces that are mostly using very up to date weapons and defences, you will forgive me for calling you out.
Just to give us something else to worry about, anyone know if this is correct:
https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/status/1498631611843231755
Oh shit didn't think about that!
brucewee - if you read the Fiona Hill interview she refers to Putin reaching back into history to inform his view of what Russia should be so your reference to the Austro-Hungarian empire is relevant.
As is your reference to him poring over old maps.
Here in China the local news, and controlled Internet, seems to be saying NATO expansion pushing China to the wall is why Russia must fight back against Ukraine.
All support for Ukraine is being erased from the net.
At first I had locals asking me if I knew about the one-day war between Russia and Ukraine, that Russia won......
I'm getting fed up of explaining to people that, perhaps, if Russia isn't allowed at the paralympics, at international football matches, fencing, boxing, etc then maybe the bad guys in this can be figured out pretty easily.
Even had to tell some people their education failed if they honestly can't figure it out. And how supporting the nazis in WWII is pretty much like supporting the Russians in the present.
I expect China to use this situation, if the West doesn't support Ukraine effectively, to attack Taiwan. I expect massive losses of Chinese troops, but ultimately the illegal takeover of Taiwan.
There are some really, really stupid people around the world, and vindictive, immoral governments. This is an unacceptable situation. Although, if the bad actors here screw the pooch, their populations "may" overturn their governments based upon broken promises in single party nations.
Edit: forget it.
I'm not trying to argue with you here, just exploring the reasons. Whilst Putin might simply be a megalomaniac, there would seem to be quite a few things he is using as justification here. I think it's worth discussing since it's relevant.
I'm worried about what the next phase of this will bring.
Putin thought the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russians with open arms. If you have cast yourself as a "liberator" then that brings with it lots of restrictions as to how you would prosecute the fighting. Indiscriminately bombarding cities would be one such restriction.
Now Putin has realised he's not liberating anyone he's conquering them. That's a much scarier prospect. There's plenty of reports of weapons like the BM-21 rocket artillery already being used in a limited way in urban areas. I'm worried we are about to see a serious escalation on the use of this kind of indiscriminate bombardment in Ukraine's cities.