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Not looking too good against the dollar, either:
1 RUB = 0.00966702 USD
Feb 28, 2022, 19:24 UTC
Regarding dyna-ti's post on the previous page - China explicitly said today that they are not allies of Russia:
China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of coordination. China-Russia relations are based on non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries," ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.
However we will indeed need to have a plan to move on from this, how Russia could exist in a new order (if it chooses not to go down the global pariah route) and how we might be able to offer him a way to climb down if that would be possible.
Mike Martin has some good threads on this -
https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497840961208176647
It's the normal people in both Russia and Ukraine who will suffer.
Imagine what a 20% or more hike would do to your mortgage interest repayments?
China-Russia relations are based on non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries,” ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.
I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then… 🤷♀️
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498380314212765704
https://twitter.com/kelly2277/status/1498375674557612036
I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then…
This feels like China getting Russia to a dry run for their little reclamation of Chinese 'territory'. Might think twice about it now.
I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?
I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then…
I think you are failing to see the bigger picture here.
Why would China dirty thier hands with this by choosing a 'side'?
They can quite happily sit back and observe how the situation evolves before even thinking about how to comment on it.
I'm impressed that some posters have direct access inside the Russian army and know exactly what they're thinking and feeling. 🙄
Why would China dirty their hands with this by choosing a ‘side’?
Hasn’t stopped them in the past, but they rely so very much on the West for significant amounts of trade, both in and out of the country.
Here’s a Bellingcat article that’s worth a read, showing the use of cluster munitions against civilian populations, and the indiscriminate use of missiles agains civilian locations.
I’m impressed that some posters have direct access inside the Russian army and know exactly what they’re thinking and feeling.
I think you’ll find that there are people out there with knowledge of the Russian Army, and plenty with knowledge of Russian psychology, who are writing informed articles, and don’t forget, the Russian Army is mostly conscripts, who’re pretty poorly paid, fighting against an opponent who has nothing to lose, and, as I’ve pointed out previously, as with the Finns during the Winter War, and also in Afghanistan, will absolutely fight to the death against an intruder wanting to take their country, their homeland, away from them for purely vainglorious reasons.
China and Russia are 'pals' in that they'll back each other up on the world stage over issues like 'whether it's really necessary to have a democracy' and 'does it matter if you massacre your own citizens'.
But they still have a fairly delicate relationship. China still believe that Russia 'stole' a chunk of Siberia (north and east of the Amur River) from them with that treaty of 18xx. (Russia believed China had stolen it with the treaty of 16xx).
Anyway, these days Siberia is increasingly full of Chinese people setting up businesses and stuff, while Putin is trying to entice Russians to move out east with grants and tax incentives (and mostly failing).
As Siberia warms up and becomes livable, farmable and generally temperate over the next few decades it's going to become increasingly desirable. China definitely have their eye on it.
Gotta love social media, some Ukranians are making tiktok videos on how to start (once you've put fuel in then) Russian vehicles.
Brilliant.
Long thread, but well worth 5mins of your time, if only to give some background information as to Putins mindset right now.
Also this one...
https://twitter.com/ProfessorShaw/status/1496672144566235137
Why would China dirty their hands with this by choosing a ‘side’?
Taiwan. If NATO (and the West) had just shrugged and turned their backs, I think China would probably already be rolling their tanks into Taiwan while the world media is distracted in Ukraine. Once it's done Putin and his flunkies in the various shit-holes his mercenaries have taken over will support and give credence to the illegal invasion.
Hasn’t stopped them in the past, but they rely so very much on the West for significant amounts of trade, both in and out of the country.
Bingo.
China won't overtly get involved, because it's not in thier long term interests.
Hmm, twitter's stopped working for me.
Apparently, a whole bunch of EV chargers on the motorway between Moscow and St Petersburg have been hacked, put out of use, and are displaying anti-Putin messages. The supplier is Ukrainian…
The cyber attacks stuff is interesting.
I know not very much about it though...
.
Will the Russian nuclear weapons be linked into any accessible networks? Could they be hacked via the Internet or would they have a totally separate system all of their own? They must be able to communicate with each other and the Russian government, Kremlin, whoever, there might be a weak spot there somewhere.
I assume people like the CIA, MI6, Mossad will have some of the best hackers out there. Collectively could they possibly find a way in to disable them? Who are Anonymous? For all we know they could be those agencies collaborating but with a good degree of deniabilty. Or at least maverick elements from within them, with all the resources that would entail.
.
If someone, somewhere can find a way to disable the Russian nukes the whole thing changes entirely.
.
Is this even possible, never mind likely?
Apparently, a whole bunch of EV chargers on the motorway between Moscow and St Petersburg have been hacked, put out of use, and are displaying anti-Putin messages. The supplier is Ukrainian…
Sucks if you own a tesla, but good work, lol
I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?
In the 1980's, maybe...
We are a long way on from this...
China's primary interest in keeping a relationship with Russia will be based on the potential supply of cheap oil and gas. But whilst it would be a significant bonus, it would not be in any way worth publicly aligning themselves with a Russia rabidly trying to rebuild the Soviet Empire!
I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?
I think you have a very old fashioned view of China's technological capabilities.
I have nothing but admiration for those in Moscow protesting to stop the war, and those here.
According to the NYT Monaco is looking at seizing Russian assets and Norway is sending weapons to Ukraine.
I’d imagine that if they are able to hack Russia’s nuke systems then the US/U.K. wouldn’t do so until the absolute last minute, don’t want to give your cards away on just a threat which will then allow Russia to close whatever access and make it much harder to hack in future
Russia claimed to be taking over to protect Russian civilians, but is indiscriminately firing missiles into areas occupied by Russian speakers:
^^ Totally agree, it's a reminder that Russia and the Russians aren't the enemy, it's Putin's Russia that is the problem.
Those protesters are showing amazing courage.
Have to agree. Some of the bravery shown in Russia in recent days has been amazing.
Regarding dyna-ti’s post on the previous page – China explicitly said today that they are not allies of Russia:
Sorry, I've missed that at some point, I was under the impression they had a better relationship with Russia than the rest of the world has. Given that China has offered help in the way of lifting wheat importing restrictions opening the door for increased income form exports. That was on the 25th though.
Clearly now on the 28th they've had a shifting in relations, China fearing its relationship with the rest of the world. There was pretty much before this started much discussion about Russia and China moving closer together, but again after the start of hostilities China is again shifting its position.
At the start of the year Putin and President Xi Jinping issued a statement which declared the 'friendship between the two States has no limits'.
Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all…
Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
It's a Ukrainian plane. It's also a tricky one to store, as it doesn't (didn't) even fit in it's purpose built hanger! That thing was a monster, I'm genuinely sad it's gone. There is a half built sister plane, maybe it can still be resurrected...
please forgive me if to me that sounded like they had a close partnership.
Well yeah they're both pretty slippery customers so it's never easy to know exactly what's the real truth!
I guess it doesn't mean that they weren't allies yesterday, or won't be tomorrow...
bikesandboots
Full Member
Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all…Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all
An engine was removed being repaired, it couldn't be sorted in time to fly her out.
The company that built is say it will cost around 3 billion dollars to rebuild they are intending to try to get the Russians to pay for it. I like their style.
Clearly now on the 28th they’ve had a shifting in relations, China fearing its relationship with the rest of the world.
I wonder if China is watching the West scramble to drop anything Russia related and is worrying that it could happen to them? I mean we buy a lot of Chinese stuff, but how much of that is stuff we could simply do without if it weren't cheap and easy to get?
Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
It had engines out for maintenance
Not how read his post, he did state if.
Taiwan. If NATO (and the West) had just shrugged and turned their backs, I think China would probably already be rolling their tanks into Taiwan while the world media is distracted in Ukraine.
@ mboy
In fairness I think he meant after an amphibious landing.
Super secret submarine tanks? With bloody big fuel tanks?
^^ In fairness I think he meant after an amphibious landing.
I thought that bit was obvious tbh.
This is an interesting surmation.
I do get the sense Russia are holding back, a lot, and if Putin goes full batshit, this could get extremely ugly very quickly.
I didn’t read it as a literal statement, just a way of saying China is close to performing a similar atrocity as Russia is doing. If the West hadn’t of intervened in the Ukraine crisis then China may have took that as a green light to invade Taiwan.
Yep, I said last night that for the moment people in Taiwan are probably sleeping a little better in their beds.
Shame this had to happen to allow for that.
Super secret submarine tanks? With bloody big fuel tanks?
😂
Not how read his post, he did state if.
My issue wasn't with the use of the word "if"... We know China has designs on Taiwan, has done for some time now. My issue was how the military genius would "roll tanks" into Taiwan, a remote mountainous island with literally no natural ports and a very densely built population centres surrounded by dense forests... 🤷🏻♂️
It's one thing taking a short drive down a motorway from the Belorussian border to Kyiv, quite different getting a tank a greater distance across the sea, then finding somewhere to land it, on quite inhospitable terrain etc...
Well, attacking underwater is one way of avoiding the A10s
mols - China have made big efforts to reposition their manufacturing base; their drive for some years has been towards hi-tech and AI to the extent that they've out-sourced some of the cheap low-end stuff elsewhere in far east.
They definitely still produce lots of cheap disposables and will take a long time to wean the west off that; a further consideration is that on/re-shoring products currently manufactured in China will increase prices - setting up the manufacturing infrastructure, higher labour costs and 'importing' pollution are a few of the considerations.
There's also the matter of political will.
On the wider point about China, they're supreme pragmatists; the chinese communist party and national congress won't do anything to jeapordise their relentless progress to becoming the world's pre-eminent superpower.
They have been and still are playing a very long game.
I have little doubt they look at Putin has done to identify lessons to be learned and to identify opportunities.
You didn't know the A-10 had a martime variant?
Well, attacking underwater is one way of avoiding the A10s
😂😂😂
bikesandboots
Full MemberWonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
Well, it was built there and was based there... It wasn't in constant use, being only used for the biggest jobs so it might not have been flightworthy on short notice- it was common for it to sit for months between jobs.
It feels really wrong, when people are losing homes and lives and so much is at stake, but this one thing made me really sad. There's something about one-offs and this is a thing that the whole world's lost. I guess it's a bit like the taliban destroying art and statues. They're making brave noises about replacing it but it's not likely, it's the sort of thing you use because you have it not because it makes sense.
Though, a second incomplete airframe does exist, or did.
China have made big efforts to reposition their manufacturing base; their drive for some years has been towards hi-tech and AI to the extent that they’ve out-sourced some of the cheap low-end stuff elsewhere in far east
I agree with that, however (and correct me if I am wrong) there are competitors for much of that stuff already in the rest of the world, so it would be relatively easy to get our higher tech elsewhere. I have read that the Chinese economy is somewhat exposed, not sure how significant it is.
But this is a tangent now.
Will the Russian nuclear weapons be linked into any accessible networks? Could they be hacked via the Internet or would they have a totally separate system all of their own?
No, atomic weapons have their own discrete control systems and are air-gapped, interlocked and coded for the very reason that you don’t want anyone messing with them. There are strict protocols and procedures agreed in international treaties. Thankfully, the big red button on Putin’s desk won’t be connected to anything meaningful.
Yeah, far less important things than that sit on isolated networks, it's standard procedure.
You think I'm joking?
Goes PFFFFFFFTTTTT.
[url= https://i.ibb.co/DMQcgDF/LOS-ANGELES-CLASS-AUSTRALIA-SUBMARINE.pn g" target="_blank">https://i.ibb.co/DMQcgDF/LOS-ANGELES-CLASS-AUSTRALIA-SUBMARINE.pn g"/> [/img][/url]
That Michael Kofman twitter thread is fairly frightening if it comes to fruition.
There’s something about one-offs and this is a thing that the whole world’s lost. I guess it’s a bit like the taliban destroying art and statues.
Hitler largely funded his war effort with stolen art and treasures from various sources don't forget... And when things were going sour at the end, he ordered as much of it to be destroyed as possible rather than falling back into allied hands!
Wartime holds no emotion towards material objects I'm afraid to say.
Yes a very sobering thread. I fear it may be more accurate than we would like it to be. I think it may now be a race between the Russians bringing their full force to bear, and the impact of world isolation on Putin’s policy.
Though, a second incomplete airframe does exist, or did.
At the same location? In which case, it's probably also destroyed
I wonder what the impact of the economic sanctions will be on Russia's ability to make and supply weapons, gear, and fuel? I know they have a lot of resources internally including oil, but what if they end up having to print roubles to pay people to do these things and end up in hyperinflation? I'm guessing the people who work producing this stuff will have no choice but to keep doing so. There must be something it needs to buy from outside in this day and age?
There must be something it needs to buy from outside in this day and age?
Pork!!!!!
Liz, Liz get in there now.
Developing pork market.
@molgrips pretty bad I reckon, seems it's not in the best shape on a good day.
Problems in the industry include a high level of debt, inflation and lack of qualified personnel. The consequence is that whereas the age of the average defence industrial scientist or engineer in China is about 30 and around 40 in the US – it is 50 years or more in Russia in 2008, it was reported that only 36% of military-industrial enterprises are solvent, while 23% are on the verge of bankruptcy.
Oof this is really not going to help. I did wonder if the reason the troops on the sidelines haven't been brought in is that they haven't got the fuel or ammo and are there for show.
Hitler largely funded his war effort with stolen art and treasures from various sources don’t forget… And when things were going sour at the end, he ordered as much of it to be destroyed as possible rather than falling back into allied hands!
Really? Don't think either of these statements are true.
I’ve read some stupid stuff on the internet recently, but this takes the biscuit quite frankly!
Dammit...I only just fixed my irony meter!
molgrips
Full Member
I wonder what the impact of the economic sanctions will be on Russia’s ability to make and supply weapons, gear, and fuel? I know they have a lot of resources internally including oil, but what if they end up having to print roubles to pay people to do these things and end up in hyperinflation? I’m guessing the people who work producing this stuff will have no choice but to keep doing so. There must be something it needs to buy from outside in this day and age?
I believe Russia have been stockpiling and also resourcing over the years to support this type of scenario, so will have a window to continue for a while yet.
As for natural resources and supplies, Russia is unfortunately a large percentage of the worlds market for a lot of the required resources, from oil and gas, through to rare earths, imports that they require tend to be specifics, same as every other country.
Lets just hope that this starts levelling down soon, it's still just unbelievable that one man (and potentially his core team) can manage to do something like this, honestly, we are all sat here in the 21st century looking back thinking that history couldn't possibly repeat.
Lots of videos of convoys of trucks smouldering along various Ukrainian roads, not beyond the realms of possibility thats some of their logistics elements getting hammered. Happened in Iraq quite a bit in '03 when the US combat elements punched up to Bagdad, the support troops following behind got hammered.
I've heard that the Ukrainians have captured a Pantsir-S air defence system which had got stuck in the mud and have some Libyan mercenaries who know how to use it.
How accurate this is I don't know, just one source at present which I know nothing about
In Iraq, the basic humble RPG did a lot of damage to the allies. Anybody can fire it and it has a big warhead.
When it gets urban, RPGs distributed amongst the population would be a nightmare for the Russians. Any vehicle below a fully armoured tank is vulnerable.
it’s still just unbelievable that one man (and potentially his core team) can manage to do something like this
Well I don't wish to de-rail the thread, but isn't this what Bush and Blair did?
Lots of videos of convoys of trucks smouldering along various Ukrainian roads, not beyond the realms of possibility thats some of their logistics elements getting hammered. Happened in Iraq quite a bit in ’03 when the US combat elements punched up to Bagdad, the support troops following behind got hammered.
I know little of such things but that does seem a sensible tactic. Let the big scary stuff pass through, come in behind them and cut off their supplies and then take on the tanks when they are low on fuel and ammo and morale is low as they are cut off?
^^Thats a Radar guided missile battery - a whole level up from IR guided missiles. You need serious kit and training to escape that.
I don't know how much ammo they have for it, I guess that would be the limiting factor?
I assume the missiles will be specific to that system?
I wonder what the impact of the economic sanctions will be on Russia’s ability to make and supply weapons, gear, and fuel? I know they have a lot of resources internally including oil, but what if they end up having to print roubles to pay people to do these things and end up in hyperinflation?
This has been 30yrs in the making for Putin, he has almost certainly amassed more money than some of the smaller banks had purely just to finance this war, more money than most countries even. That said... The way things are going, he'll have 150mn hungry and homeless people within weeks that he'll need to stick his hands into his pockets to fund, otherwise they will turn on him!
As for the weapons, gear, fuel...? The way things have gone for the Russian army so far in those respects, I'd be surprised if they haven't run out by next week!
@andrewh yup. That's how Jessica Lynch was captured, they've not often had the depth of training as front line troops, usually to a basic degree, although the US rectified that following a few high profile incidents.
The RLC spent a lot of time training and developed a force protection element for their combat logistics patrols in Afghanistan to prevent such issues.
I just can’t believe how this has even happened, just so glad to see Russia being crippled by sanctions but equally sad that this will affect so many well meaning Russians and its only the minority that even wanted this.
Seeing the humanitarian side of it and the severe loss of life is tragic, also now I’m a home owner and have a career, I cannot imagine what it must be like to leave your life lived home not knowing if you’ll ever go back.... just hope this whole issue de-escalates soon.
Was very pleased to see that Anonymous were doing their bit.... but when will he be tried for these crimes? Nerve agent in UK, multiple assassination attempts on UK soil...just ridiculous.
**** me there's a 17 miles long Russian armoured convoy heading for Kyiv. That's got to be the end of it, hasn't it?!?
Source?
^ BBC
Sadly it appears that we are about to find out if the Russians are really struggling as much as some people on here seem to think.
Take your pick @molgrips they're all leading with it. BBC news front page has it with satellite images.
Here's hoping the city can hold them off.
Or some offensive action can stop or at least hinder them.