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what’s in it for Russia
What Putin and co. think is in it for Russia and what actually is in it for Russia, is, I reckon, going to be two very different things.
Maybe for him: Short term: glory. Long term: increasing paranoia over imagined and real "plots". For the poor Russians, harder times, increased isolation.
But the country is a series of confounding babushka dolls, so who knows?
Looks like there’s a potential summit on the cards now between Biden and Putin.
the Russians have poured cold water on that apparently.
“What do Russia want?”
Not admit Ukraine into NATO, to pull back from all "frontline" countries (the ex-Warsaw Pact countries) he wants the autonomous regions that he invaded in 2014 to be recognised (and possibly start the process to becoming a different country or subsumed into Russia) he wants all NATO medium range missiles to be withdrawn from Europe, and if he gets all that, and re-organisation of the security structure to give Russia a greater say.
I think Putin is a revisionist who bemoans the end of the Soviet Republic, and sees the loss of Ukraine as a defeat for him and thinks that by re-establishing it's "sphere of influence" it will have a greater say in world events. I think he also regards the encroaching "mostly" democratic former satellite states as not a good development
The summit will buy more time for Ukraine.
Unless Biden has an ace up his sleeve. the US putting out real time info must have Putin spooked as he is ex kgb. Is there a rat or plot to relapse him must be running through his mind. the USA could just be making it up but somewhere there is glass to the wall and info is leaking.
I just hope the longer the Russian generals sit waiting for Putin the more time they have to think and within themselves work out that it's not going to be a weekends work and may not be worth the huge loss of life.
Any idea how much it cost to have 90% of your army on standby like that they are not in barracks so it's must be a huge drain.
P'raps he's banking on the USA to vote in another "asset", next presidential election.
Two years of "difficulties" then the US does a "Kurds" on Europe and Vlad gets to steam roller westwards.
It's all 'orrible.
Unless Biden has an ace up his sleeve. the US putting out real time info must have Putin spooked as he is ex kgb. Is there a rat or plot to relapse him must be running through his mind. the USA could just be making it up but somewhere there is glass to the wall and info is leaking.
Mobile phone and social media data will be helping, getting everyone to switch their phones off and not message home is impossible.
Russia already has well developed targeting capabilities using mobile masts. I suppose that NATO will have similar capabilities
How capable is Biden?
Like him or not Putin is pretty good at achieving things, see Crimea for example.
Is Biden actually going to be any use in facing up to him though, is he going to be able to take on the JFK role here? He seems to have a lot of support (particularly outside the US) for 'not being Trump' but does that make him the right man for the job?
We can hardly rely on Boris to lead the free world in the way we would have expected of Churchill or even Thatcher.
I think from the beginning, Putin has wanted to destabilise Ukraine, same as back in 2014, but this time around they're a bit more steadfast and less internal fighting, so the Russians have been waiting for their justification to wander over the border.
I just cannot see the Russians invading without a justifiable excuse, it would support the Ukrainian nationalists and a pitch battle live on TV is just not what Russia would want, or could realistically support, for all the propaganda about Russians might, they are still modernising, and would have seriously limited offensive abilities due to the nature of any invasion.
I just cannot see the Russians invading without a justifiable excuse
An invitation might do it. Whether that's from placed individuals in Ukraine. Or just into the breakaway regions. The full military occupation of which might be the goal anyway.
How capable is Biden?
Not capable. look at Afghanistan. Logistic chaos.
Like him or not Putin is pretty good at achieving things, see Crimea for example.
He has too otherwise others will step all over him. Look at CCP.
Is Biden actually going to be any use in facing up to him though, is he going to be able to take on the JFK role here?
He is not anyway near JFK as he does not have the leadership quality.
He seems to have a lot of support (particularly outside the US) for ‘not being Trump’ but does that make him the right man for the job?
Outside of US support mainly comes from the opponents as they are jumping with joy seeing a weak President in charge. That's why they hated Trump because they did not have the "upper hand".
We can hardly rely on Boris to lead the free world in the way we would have expected of Churchill or even Thatcher.
Boris is more or less on his own as EU does not want him and lefty Biden administration considers him "right". I don't think he can be compared to Churchill or Thatcher to lead the free world as many do not respect him.
Only a matter of days ago I'd have put money on a last minute de-escalation over Ukraine.
Now it seems inevitable.
It looks like half of Ukraine (east of the Kyiv river) will be Russian as I mentioned earlier.
Ukraine-Russia: Putin mulls recognising independence of breakaway regions
I don’t think he can be compared to Churchill or Thatcher to lead the free world as many ̶d̶o̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶p̶e̶c̶t̶ ̶h̶i̶m̶.̶ think he's a bloody idiot.
Fixed that for you.
The Baltic States will be looking at the Russian playbook and thinking "we would be next if we weren't in NATO"
Fixed that for you.
LOL! True, true ...
As the saying goes "He is "our idiot"."
I think the wise thing is to ignore Putin recognising those breakaway regions, harsh as it is, beyond providing aid to Ukraine to take in any refugees.
He already had control there, if he and China and North Korea choose to recognise them as countries, shouldn't be enough to provoke a response from anyone.
I guess the danger is if Ukraine support any resistance groups and give him justification to retaliate.
And that's Putin's Sudetenland moment.
Also, the political fallout from a refugee crisis cannot be underestimated.
Putin has started address of the nation on Russian TV. I'm following it on BBC live and it's not looking good for Ukraine so far
He already had control there, if he and China and North Korea choose to recognise them as countries, shouldn’t be enough to provoke a response from anyone.
Depends if he means the area that is currently occupied by the rebels, or the entire regions. If the later, then he has a pretty good excuse (on a false premise) to go and kick them out - invade. RT are suggesting the entire regions.
I think the wise thing is to ignore Putin recognising those breakaway regions, harsh as it is, beyond providing aid to Ukraine to take in any refugees.
He has just annexed (assuming that is the case) East Ukraine but as long as there is no maltreatment of the Ukrainians, I think people will just let them be. i.e. they may become "dual nationals" as Ukrainians and East Ukrainians/Russians whatever if it is a "separate" countries. The world can ignore the Russian Ukraine depending on the situation.
He already had control there, if he and China and North Korea choose to recognise them as countries, shouldn’t be enough to provoke a response from anyone.
As long as Russia leaves West Ukraine alone there will be no war.
I guess the danger is if Ukraine support any resistance groups and give him justification to retaliate.
That depends on Ukrainian's leadership whether to let half the country goes or to fight to regain the lost territory. Unfortunately it is best to leave it as war will not do both any good. Some just have to have "dual nationality".
Have you seen the footage from the Russian Security Council meeting?
Absolutely bonkers!
https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1495809714084630537?s=21
Everyone lined up in front of him like naughty school kids, to pledge their support for the glorious leader, one by one. He’s a ****ing madman!
RT absolutely would suggest the entire regions.
All that we need now is an entirely ineffectual Prime Minister to come home waving a meaningless autograph around.
Everyone lined up in front of him like naughty school kids, to pledge their support for the glorious leader, one by one. He’s a ****ing madman!
Try watching CCP that is even funnier. Everyone just say "yes".
Everyone just say “yes”.
Not much different from Johnson today announcing his covid denial. We laugh at other countries while tory MPs call the opposition names such as captain hindsight and lieutenant lockdown. We’re no better.
PJM1974
Free Member
RT absolutely would suggest the entire regions.
Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i'd say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.
Now that's not to say there's not going to be an escalation of fighting over these bits, might be might no. But there's a bit jump from that statement to the invasion of Ukraine I'd think.
Guess we'll see how things develop. There's potential for escalation in the East, but doesn't really seem like any more is imminent.
Not much different from Johnson today announcing his covid denial. We laugh at other countries
I don’t think anyone’s laughing, either about Putin or Johnson. Two very very dangerous men, but one of them looked completely unhinged today
Putin blames Lenin for the Ukraine problem.
A man who's rule ended in 1930s
Genghis Khan next
It's getting like north Korea but with bigger stakes. And bigger guns
pk13
Free Member
Putin blames Lenin for the Ukraine problem.
A man who’s rule ended in 1930s
whit a guy, considering he died in 1924. 😆
Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i’d say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.
I see, thank you.
... captain hindsight and lieutenant lockdown.
LOL! That's good, I mean being creative.
Never heard of that phrase before and really makes me laugh.
seosamh77
Fat fingers lol
For the uneducated, this is now on paper according to Putin West/East Ukraine now like West/East Germany, except We wait to see if either Ukraine fights back or Putin puts Russian boots on the ground?
Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i’d say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.
The DPR claims the entire Donetsk Oblast as of the law they passed in 2019 apparently.
Kryton57
Full Member
For the uneducated, this is now on paper according to Putin West/East Ukraine now like West/East Germany, except We wait to see if either Ukraine fights back or Putin puts Russian boots on the ground?
You've got to ask what is Putin actually wanting out of this? Well he's got Crimea, so that gives him the strategic position he wants in the Black Sea, and now he's just officially recognised the DPR and the LPR. So that gives him a bit of a buffer zone between Ukraine and Southern Russia. Not really seeing how going much further gives him anything but trouble really. Plus, Ukraine will now have a permanently disputed border which essentially makes NATO membership non-existent for eternity. Basically the same strategy as Georgia isn't it. (I guess there could be an escalation if he feels the need to take out some of Ukraines military capability.)
Assuming nothing much else happens, he's probably getting what he wants here, and no-one else will really say much about it assuming this is how it stays, as they'll be happy a further invasion didn't happen.
That's my guess anyhow.
Ewan
Free Member
Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i’d say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.The DPR claims the entire Donetsk Oblast as of the law they passed in 2019 apparently.
Fair enough, but a disputed border isn't counter to Putin's strategy imo.
pk13
Free Member
seosamh77Fat fingers lol
Yeah, I guessed so, was just too hard to resist. 😉
You’ve got to ask what is Putin actually wanting out of this?
He wants it all. It is a matter of who are willing to stand up to him etc.
Not really seeing how going much further gives him anything but trouble really.
I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.
molgrips
Full Member
Not really seeing how going much further gives him anything but trouble really.I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.
So do I.
I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.
He gains by staying in power just like CCP but CCP is worst.
Psychological and/or cyber war would seem to be a much better option here. Ok so it might be taking a while and be less effective but far less fallout (both literally and figuratively).
A positive spin - I think - from the Beeb.
BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Five reasons why Putin might not invade
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60468264
Good time for someone else to invade from another direction though eh?
EDIT well, maybe if it weren't for thousands of miles of thawing tundra in the way...
Could Putin be doing this now, in part, to make Biden look bad therefore aid his little Trump back into power?
MoreCashThanDash
Full Member
A positive spin – I think – from the Beeb.BBC News – Ukraine crisis: Five reasons why Putin might not invade
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60468264/blockquote >Some good points, people may forget, but Ukraine is pretty large, with a population similar to Spain, the Russians would be bogged down and in a dirty fight being watched from all sides, i can't even think that a full invasion was ever in Putin's thinking, just destabilise, and try to gain areas and push the Russian agenda, which they've already done.
I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.
Put yourself in Putin's mind frame tho. He's probably decided a clash with nato / EU on the borders of Russia is inevitable at some point in the future, as he wants to stop / reverse western expansion eastwards. With that in mind it's a matter of do the costs outweigh the benefits - if by escalating things he can get the concessions he wants then all is well. However if he doesn't get the concessions he wants (which he hasn't yet) then it is hard to see the costs being any cheaper (in money or lives) than it is now. Let's say he backs down then it's hard to see the Ukraine not moving closer to the west after this and at some point in the future hosting US or Nato troops in some form. They'll certinaly get a lot of military aid / support from the west and be harder to invade in a couple of years.
With that frame of reference pushing things to the absolute brink makes logical sense, and if you don't get what you want then invading (with regime change) is the next best thing.
tldr Putin's a nutter and this probably makes sense to him.
Putin's now ordered russian troops into the rebel held areas on 'peace keeping missions'. I assume they'll shortly be 'attacked' as the final pretence.
Could Putin be doing this now, in part, to make Biden look bad therefore aid his little Trump back into power?
Silly Biden is already a gone case regardless. He is just a zombie walking. He has done it to himself because he is just an empty vessel pretending to be something he is not, same goes to his deputy. He is so weak he is a danger to the free world.
Russian troops ordered in to eastern Ukraine. As "peace keepers"...
What an absolute power hungry ****.
Putin’s now ordered russian troops into the rebel held areas on ‘peace keeping missions’. I assume they’ll shortly be ‘attacked’ as the final pretence.
I'm sure it will be due to NATO aggression, the secular Saint and "Stop the War" will be out to campaign for peace quite soon
Ukrainian ambassador on Newsnight claiming Russian troops have already crossed the border in the disputed regions
So an invasion in all but name.
Someone make him a brew with two lumps.
I guess he did have to wait until china gave him permission.
Anyone else think we might get a year off from crappy news after covid? Nah let's have a war
Had to go on RT to see the spin.
7 people waving flags and some fireworks going off to show the huge relief that those treacherous Ukrainians are being ousted...
Utter parallel universe stuff.
I presume everyone wailing about Russia putting troops into the Donbas will now also be demanding that the uk give Northern Ireland back to the Irish and Israel to pull out of Palestine and Gaza?
*For the record I’m not supportive of Russia taking over the Donbas, I think they should be able to decide for themselves whether to be independent or not. But the double standards on display are pretty funny. As always it’s one rule for us and another for everyone else.
The BBC has a list of bullet points summarising Putin's speech. This one stood out to me as particularly chilling:
He said "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood" and that modern Ukraine had been "created" by Russia
I’m sure it will be due to NATO aggression, the secular Saint and “Stop the War” will be out to campaign for peace quite soon
Stand aside everyone! They’re already on it! And they really mean business this time. They’ve started a petition! 😂
https://twitter.com/corbyn_project/status/1495821565296058368?s=21
I presume everyone wailing about Russia putting troops into the Donbas will now also be demanding that the uk give Northern Ireland back to the Irish and Israel to pull out of Palestine and Gaza?
And maybe Germany could expand back into Poland and France ?
This one stood out to me as particularly chilling
It went much further than that. I’ll try and find the whole section… because it claimed far more than just Ukraine should still be under Russian control. It talked of Russia taking on the debt of the “newly” independent states, and that in return they are obligated. Genuinely troubling times for people in many countries.
This one stood out to me as particularly chilling:
Seems to be some truth in it. Some quick Googling says the Ukraine was created in 1917 by the bolsheviks. That’s what he said wasn’t it?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson will chair a Cobra emergency response meeting at 06:30 GMT on Tuesday.
That's concerning; he won't be sober so I hope there will be some grown-ups in the room to rein him in.
Liz Truss will be there like some dystopian neo-Thatcherite wet nurse. That'll cheer up the Etonians
'And maybe Germany could expand back into Poland and France ?'
We could give all back to the Romans.
Anne Applebaum from The Atlantic.
It's guff. Putin knows it, we know it, even some of his domestic audience know it.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson will chair a Cobra emergency response meeting at 06:30 GMT on Tuesday.
A comedy prime minister with an incompetent/mendacious cabinet and a party propped up with vast amounts of Russian cash. What could possibly go wrong?
Liz Truss will be there like some dystopian neo-Thatcherite wet nurse
I don't think that she'll ever be that good at her job TBH.
Seems to be some truth in it. Some quick Googling says the Ukraine was created in 1917 by the bolsheviks. That’s what he said wasn’t it?
"Belgium is a country invented by the British to annoy the French" - Charles de Gaulle.
Obviously a bit more to it than that but basically yes.
We could use the Putin logic to solve Brexit🤣
Some quick Googling says the Ukraine was created in 1917 by the bolsheviks.
😂
Some quick Googling…yeah, very quick.
We could use the Putin logic to solve Brexit
Oh the irony lols.
My employer has staff in Kyiv, and some (very good) contractors in Lviv who I work with daily. Just as well this forum has a swear filter.
Thanks, that’s hilarious!
This from the opening paragraphs:
Ralf Stegner, a senior Member of Parliament for Germany’s ruling Social Democrats, told the BBC on January 25th that the Minsk-Normandy process agreed to by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine in 2015 is still the right framework for ending the civil war.
“The Minsk Agreement hasn’t been applied by both sides,” Stegner explained, “and it just doesn’t make any sense to think that forcing up the military possibilities would make it better. Rather, I think it’s the hour of diplomacy.”
Yeah, the same Minsk agreement that Russia has just put in the bin a few hours ago!
It can’t be the fault of the Russians can it? I mean, those same Russians who decided not to have a bilateral with Biden when it was on the table just this morning. Instead they chose to use the time set aside for the bilateral to invade the sovereign territory of a neighbour. That must be the fault of the Americans?
Western mainstream media accounts date the crisis in Ukraine back to Russia’s 2014 reintegration of Crimea
That's an interesting interpretation.
Of course given the source, hardly surprising, they are ripe for such pieces given their political bias:
During the 2016 presidential election, CounterPunch published a piece attributed to Alice Donovan, who purported to be a freelance writer but US intelligence officials alleged to be a pseudonymous employee of the Russian government. Donovan was tracked by the FBI for nine months, as a suspected fictitious persona created by the GRU. In late November 2017, after CounterPunch had published several more pieces by Donovan, The Washington Post contacted Jeffrey St. Clair about her. The co-editor said that Donovan's pitches did not stand out amongst the pitches that CounterPunch received daily and began making inquiries. He asked Donovan to substantiate her identity by sending a photo of her driving license but she did not. On the same day The Washington Post article was published on Donovan, St. Clair and Frank published a piece stating that CounterPunch only ran one article by Alice Donovan during the 2016 election, which was on cyber-breaches of medical databases. Donovan was also exposed by the newsletter as a serial plagiarizer. CounterPunch removed all of the articles from their site. In a January 2018 follow-up article, St. Clair and Frank exposed a network of alleged trolls that operated a site called Inside Syria Media Center, promoting a pro-Bashar al-Assad and pro-Russian view of the Syrian Civil War. St. Clair and Frank speculated that the website was connected to the same network of trolls as Alice Donovan, which was later confirmed by the Atlantic Council and other researchers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CounterPunch
Here's a full account of the saga from Counterpunch themselves:
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/12/25/go-ask-alice-the-curious-case-of-alice-donovan-2/
What's my point? Don't read things at face value or fall into the trap of confirmation bias. Just because the source is agreeable that doesn't mean you shouldn't question the info given.
Without straying too much into the realms of "history is repeating itself" the similarities to what's going on in Ukraine today and Poland 80 years ago is startling.
In the 1930s Hitler had written that Poland "wasn't worth a penny, and how can they call themselves an independent state?" Then there's Danzig and the separation of ethnically German Poles from the rest of German after the First WW, which Hitler used as the cause to begin drumming for invasion to "liberate" the citizens. The germans even referred to the invasion as a "defensive war" because Hitler claimed that ethnically German Poles were being "persecuted" and "terrorised, and driven from their homes"
Even the endless rounds of talks that preceded it are eerily familiar and divided
Not much to laugh about, but this made me giggle..
nickc
Full Member
Without straying too much into the realms of “history is repeating itself”
I don't think you have to try to hard to find the historic parallel.
Some quick Googling says the Ukraine was created in 1917 by the bolsheviks.
OK, some unpacking, Putin certainly comes at history from an ex-Soviet perspective, and the Ukrainian-Bolshevik War as far as he was probably taught it in the Soviet Republic was that Lenin was coming to the rescue of Russian people after the region was invaded by the military of Central and Western powers, conversely most Ukrainians would characterize the war as a failed war of independence by the Peoples Republic of Ukraine against the Bolsheviks. The decider was I think The Ukrainian army mostly dying of typhus in 1919
In essence the straight-up claim of "Ukraine was invented in 1917" stands up, but not really in the way that Putin wants you to understand it. Yes, it was, by a group of people that didn't really want anything to do with Lenin and the Bolsheviks, but lost a war to try to stop them invading. Again like Poland, the echos of history are surprisingly familiar.
In the 1930s Hitler had written that Poland “wasn’t worth a penny, and how can they call themselves an independent state?” Then there’s Danzig and the separation of ethnically German Poles from the rest of German after the First WW, which Hitler used as the cause to begin drumming for invasion to “liberate” the citizens. The germans even referred to the invasion as a “defensive war” because Hitler claimed that ethnically German Poles were being “persecuted” and “terrorised, and driven from their homes”
Plus you have the parallel of Hitler rolling into the Sudetenland, a region of another country but with a population of mainly ethnic Germans. Whether Putin will be appeased in the same way as Hitler at this point remains to be seen.
I think the most severe and targeted seizure sanctions against privately-held Russian assets in Europe is the only possible recourse that our governments have at this point. Obviously, that will upset some Tory party donors.
“I think the most severe and targeted seizure sanctions against privately-held Russian assets in Europe is the only possible recourse that our governments have at this point. “
There are plenty of other tools in the box but it’s worth mentioning that the issue or oligarch cash isn’t unique to the Uk - it’s an issue in France, Germany and Spain as well.
The other measures we could deploy include:
- terminating the access of Russian banks to the swift / international payments network (which would pretty much guarantee the collapse of the Russian economy)
- legislating to prevent western companies from trading with Russian legal entities either in Russia or the new “independent states”
- travel bans
- refusal to allow inbound flights from Russian points of departure - although Russia would reciprocate by refusing access to their airspace for international flights.
Yeah, just goes to show how brainless it is to trawl through history looking for evidence for where people and territories should 'rightly' belong. What a load of ****ing bollocks. That really worked out well last time didn't it?
Putin, on reading about WWII: That sounds great fun, I want a go!