Correct. If the ruble is falling relative to the USD then in must also be falling relative to the yuan, unless either the yuan is falling relative to the dollar too or there is a massive opportunity for arbitrage traders to make a fortune. The latter may have been possible years ago but nowadays it's tiny fractions of the price in fractions of a second before everything balances out again.
Therefore if the ruble is falling relative to the dollar it must be falling relative to all other currencies, or at least those without similar problems which are also falling rapidly.
If 100R=1D and 8Y=1D then 1Y must equal 12R. If it doesn't then people will buy and sell whatever combinations net a profit in the currency they want, but the very act of doing that evens out the price across the market.
I think chewy made the point that the dollar value is irrelevant if it’s not needed…. and crucially it is a way of circumventing sanctions.
I am not an economist. But, my understanding was it's all well and good getting Yuan and Rupees for your oil, but you can't pay your population and industry in that foreign currency, so it still needs exchanging.
With Russia massively funded by selling it's natural resources and to a narrowing group of customers, this is going to increasingly be an issue. This surely is why an 'oil for guns' programme is being rolled out - saves any currency exchange?
This surely is why an ‘oil for guns’ programme is being rolled out – saves any currency exchange?
Currency exchange costs and exchanging into yuan was expensive for India. They had to convert to HK$ and then yuan, which totalled 3%-ish
Sanctions have also made the banks everywhere wary, they don't want to be cut out of the $US
With Russia massively funded by selling it’s natural resources and to a narrowing group of customers
Is that actually true though? I thought that Russia had been able to find new buyers for its oil including unlikely buyers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, isn't that why the 'shadow tanker fleet' was established?
And despite Russia restricting natural gas exports to certain member states EU imports increased by 27% in the first half of this year.
And despite Russia restricting natural gas exports to certain member states EU imports increased by 27% in the first half of this year.
If you have a play around on the ENTSOG site you can vary calendar dates on a slider and also click on individual pipelines to see flow v capacity https://gasdashboard.entsog.eu/
Russia has two pipelines into Europe now: Russia>Estonia/Latvia which has flowed 500GWh out of a possible 35k GWh and Russia>Ukraine, which I'm assuming is the one that won't be licensed by Ukraine from January 2025.
Russia>Germany (Nordstream) and Russia>Finland aren't shown now (NS for obvious reasons) and Belarus has gone from two pipelines to one
I thought that Russia had been able to find new buyers for its oil including unlikely buyers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, isn’t that why the ‘shadow tanker fleet’ was established?
Russia has been keeping oil sales going, but they were selling to India (for example) at $10US under market price per barrel.
25 of the shadow fleet tankers are subject to sanctions and Greek shippers have been threatened as well https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-cracks-down-on-illicit-shadow-fleet-transporting-russian-oil-globally and https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/greek-shippers-exit-russian-oil-trade-us-tightens-price-cap-scrutiny-2023-11-23/
Sanctions on banks have made payments more difficult ^^
So...
Putin's just said the massive attack on Ukraine's power grid is in response to the new Western weapons being used.
Now, that's shit and a war crime obviously but...
No nukes Putin? All that pallet of baked beans and bog roll I bought gone to waste. Again.
He's a busted flush.
Putin’s just said the massive attack on Ukraine’s power grid is in response to the new Western weapons being used.
He'd have found some excuse to do it just before winter really sets in, or no excuse and just bombed it anyway. Just like he has the past 2 winters.
Thing is, we don’t get to hear about how much ukraine is hurting
Fair comment, I think it's fair to say that the average Ukrainan civilian in Kherson and Kyiv is feeling the war far more than the average Russian in Moscow or St Petersburg.
The key metric is the very hard to pin down 'will to fight.' recent polling of Ukrainians shows a slow decline of people willing to fight 'as long as it takes' to defeat Russia (albeit from very very high levels) and a slow increase in the proportion Ukrainians who want a negotiated settlement ASAP.
The devil is in the detail though, amongst even those Ukrainians who wanted a negotiated settlement the majority saw any kind of territorial concessions to Russia as an unacceptable red line, The Ukrainian public, in short, is oceans away from being willing to accept any treaty that allow Russia to keep what it's gained since 2022 and Putin will not discuss anything that doesn't.
Putin has also demanded that lifting all sanctions are a precondition for any talks, essentially demanding that the West to throw away all their leverage before they even start, this is not the position of anyone serious about negotiating.
It suits Putin to present himself internationally as a reasonable interlocutor who's open to talks as it gives his useful idiots in the West and elsewhere plenty of talking points and helps undermine support for Ukraine by portraying them as unrealistic and unreasonable. The truth is he has zero interest in anything other than capitulation and the detail of his negotiating stance shows this very clearly.
Edit: Double post
Edit, Triple post, FFS Firefox!
Attacking ukraines energy infrastructure isn't an escalation, its exactly what they did this time last year.
When I mentioned how long ukraine can hang for, it wasn't so much I'm questioning if the will to resist and fight is still present, its more even if they have the will they only have finite manpower and we don't hear ukraines number of casualties I don't expect it to be the same scale as Russia it must still be horrific.
And they don't have the ability to rustle up 10k+ extra troops by trading their oil & nuclear secrets
WHAT NO NUKES - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Almost nobody predicted that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Guardian article about the Ruble crash from Wednesday.
I think it rallied very slightly yesterday but I can't see that lasting. The Kremlin playing it cool "good for exports" etc. Not good for public support for the "SMO" when rampant food inflation begins to bite though.
Syrian rebels are kicking off in a move sure to split Russia's attention https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5w0ype0vlo
Good to see the Graun spells Rouble the same way I do.
Good to see the Graun spells Rouble the same way I do.
If you're looking for an authority on spelling, I'm not sure you've picked the right one! I think Ruble or Rouble are accepted English spellings, but neither are "correct" really I suppose because they don't use the cyrillic characters.
рубль, apparently.
Thanks, wikipedia
Yup, it may have slipped off the front pages but the fighting there remains horrendous, on another level to anything else the world has seen in recent years in terms of sheer intensity.
To give you a sense of scale, in 20 years of fighting in Afghanistan the UK lost 457 service personnel.
I appreciate that the Russian number is 'casualties and not 'deaths' but even so, the scale of the loss is staggering.
Highest Russian casualties of the war today: 2000
It's hard to comprehend. I can't imagine any other country that could sustain those sorts of casualties, from an offensive not defensive war and not have a mass public revolt. It just shows how effective the state media and lack of free press is. That and the fact it's not the sons of those is Moscow or St Petersburg who are doing the dying, but the sons of the rural poor from the far flung regions. For what? It's utterly grim 🙁
Highest Russian casualties of the war today: 2000
🙁
And now the sons of rural North Korea fighting in a far flung land for a far flung dictator.
It just shows how effective the state media and lack of free press is.
I think the amount they are allegedly paying for people to sign up also helps.
Admittedly this goes back to lack of free press and so whether that sign up bonus actually appears but I can see why it would tempt those rural kids in the far flung regions.
Highest Russian casualties of the war today: 2000
I just had a quick google and to put this in context the Russians lost 15,000+ in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan.
It just shows how effective the state media and lack of free press is.
I read that some Russians have already named new born babies as Oreshnik. So whilst the state media is doing a great job .. a stupid Russian audience helps ...
Anyone in a country where Russia is propping up a regime or has a part of their territory occupied by Russia might start thinking this world be a good time to put the boot in.
I hope.
but Putin stands to loose his warm water naval base and influence in the region?
I understand Assad is in Russia atm?! A coup in Syria would be a disaster for putin if he can't guarantee his port Tartus
There are already reports that rebels have overrun several Russian SOF teams near Aleppo.
It's not 100% confirmed but Russian weew know to be operating in the area am d video footage has emerged of rebels showing off kit that is highly likely to have come from dead or captured Speznatz personnel (VSS rifles for instance).
Anyone in a country where Russia is propping up a regime or has a part of their territory occupied by Russia might start thinking this world be a good time to put the boot in.
I hope.
Indeed, but we've been here before hoping all sorts of countries under Russian 'influence' might start thinking now is a time to make a move, be it a rebellion or political change.
Anyone in a country where Russia is propping up a regime or has a part of their territory occupied by Russia might start thinking this world be a good time to put the boot in.
I hope.
^^ Sorry I have no idea how that was posted again some 40 minutes back, I wasnt even actively on the forum. Lol
S’alright poopscoop. We’re statistically likely to have a high ranking official on here from a rebel organisation in a country being propped up by the Russians. We have some wide representation…
Nothing wrong with a polite reminder.
So where does Georgia fit in, what's going to happen there?
Slight thread diversion – but Assad and Putler are taking a beating in Syria, not sure how it plays out geopolitically but Putin stands to loose his warm water naval base and influence in the region?
It looks like the Syrian rebels are taking advantage of not only Russia's problems, but also Hezbollah's problems following Israeli action. Aleppo is significant as the second largest city, but also as a base for both Hezbollah and Syrian forces. Israel has struck Aleppo on at least two occasions since October and in the same raid in March struck an Hezbollah weapons store near to Aleppo airport and Syrian forces in another suburb.
Russia has air force assets, which it's using against the rebels, but ground forces are heavily compromised and are needed to regain territory. To alleviate this Russia has spoken with both Turkiye and Iran, their allies under the Astana Process. Iran has it's own problems so time will tell whether they respond.
Turkiye will probably respond but is quite likely to want to move the balance of power towards their forces and away from Iran and Russia. Relations between Turkiye and Russia are complex https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/07/turkiye-russia-fragile-partnership?lang=en
We'll have to see how it plays out, but Russia has some serious prioritising to do to maintain a foothold in Syria; I suspect that they'll focus on Ukraine.
So where does Georgia fit in, what’s going to happen there?
I'm not sure that it's linked specifically to other conflicts. There are links, e.g. young Russians migrated to Georgia at the beginning of the 2022 invasion.
It'll hold echoes of Ukraine's EuroMaidan uprising in 2013 for Russia, so expect some action from the Russian-controlled South Ossetia region of Georgia, recognised as independent only by Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria.
Russian military seems to have really dropped the ball in Syria
I wonder if this is the result of them hollowing themselves out in Ukraine
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lca7bhhjuc23
Meanwhile in Georgia....
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lcbgx5vyuk25
Putin has a lot of pots on the boil at the moment that he needs to keep an eye on,
And the Russian economy has been far more reliant than expected but inflation is nuts, they have sent all their workers to war and they're bullshitting their GDP numbers
https://www.ft.com/content/b4bc5668-69bc-4842-af2d-bf49756be3c9
And the Russian economy has been far more reliant (resilient?) than expected but inflation is nuts...
Not helped by traders exporting gasoline against a national ban (and presumably avoiding taxes). The ban is being lifted for producers, which will increase income for the state https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-lifts-gasoline-export-ban-producers-extends-others-2024-11-30/
The Ruble has started to stabilise but only because the central bank stopped buying dollars and euros. Interest rates are at 21%, but some experts think that 30-40% is more realistic. Rates of that level simply aren't practical and now stagflation is a fear https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/currency-drop-worsens-moscows-stagflation-fears-2024-11-29/
President-elect Trump is already warning the BRICS nations about trying to replace the $US https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-warns-brics-nations-against-replacing-us-dollar-2024-11-30/
For cost of living and what is being written in the Russian newspapers then I'd recommend Steve Rosenberg's YouTube channel, find the "Reading Russia" playlist series
Apparently more drones crash landed into Belarus than made it into Ukraine last night. New jamming of some kind?
I read last week the Ukrainians had developed a new GPS jamming system that gives out a false 'location' causing the drones to fly off course and crash.
With all this talk of peace negotiations in the news along with handing over seized land to the Russians my mum met up with the Ukrainian partner of a soldier for coffee. I mentioned her a good few months back as she used to live in my mums street but had to move due to the house lease, she said to my mum that she/her husband and his fellow soldiers will not rest till every occupying Russian is swinging from the trees and they get their land and homes back.
This could be a long festering sore in Europe for years/decades to come.
Russian military seems to have really dropped the ball in Syria
I wonder if this is the result of them hollowing themselves out in Ukraine
Well, we all know who are behind the scene stirring the pot. Just like the mujaheddin fighting the then USSR with the puppet master puling the string to provide all the necessary resources.
If Assad is gone then the so called "rebels" (rebrand ISIS) will recuperate for a decade or two to gather their strength and when ready (with surprise attack) they will march south, while those in the south will march north. Their actual target is Israel. With the humiliation of Palestinian people, most middle eastern population will support the "rebels" and many of the middle eastern govts will fall. Once Israel is gone, the next target is Turkey which is the final destination.
double post
turkey are using this opportunity to take land in Syria and attack the kurds
Yes, but they will just quicken their own downfall because they will not have the buffer between the ISIS advancement.
Assad is actually doing the West a favour without them even knowing.
Notice none of the middle eastern nations actually want a war with Israel?
This could be a long festering sore in Europe for years/decades to come.
Some Korean style DMZ could be the result but far less stable. I'm not sure if the Ukrainian people can bury the hatred they must have in even a couple of generations to come. I really hope they prosper as Russia looks on and falls ever further behind. They've paid a heavy price for their independence and economic prosperity is the very least they deserve.
On the drone/EW topic: extract from ISW below - it does seem ukraine has some new bit of counter drone tech, and has the ability to re-route russian drones, into Belarus
" Independent Belarusian monitoring group Hajun Project reported on November 25 that 38 Russian Shahed drones entered Belarusian airspace on November 24 and 25 – a record number of Russian drones violating Belarusian airspace.[14] Belarus scrambled jets to respond to the airspace violation—suggesting that Belarus was unprepared to receive errant Russian drones and that Russia had not anticipated the impacts of Ukrainian interference or communicated them to Belarus in advance."
she said to my mum that she/her husband and his fellow soldiers will not rest till every occupying Russian is swinging from the trees and they get their land and homes back.
That is what some of the takes suggesting that the USA can 'solve this in a day' by forcing both sides to the negotiating table seem to miss, if the lines freeze where they are that will leave millions of Ukranians behind 'enemy lines' and there is no way that this does not lead to decades of violence and brutal repression in the occupied areas, which at any time could provide the spark for a whole new conflict.
Yes, Iran. There’s a regime that has brought nothing but utter misery to everything it has touched.
Unlike the Shah of course. Maybe we could get Iraq to invade them again? That worked out great last time.
On the drone/EW topic: extract from ISW below – it does seem ukraine has some new bit of counter drone tech
Absolutely. This will continue as it has since 2022, counter-tech, counter-counter-tech...
Russia leveraged experience from EW operations in Syria and transferred that to Ukraine, the to and fro has continued since then (2022 article- https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-fall-and-rise-of-russian-electronic-warfare )
The US have learnt from this and one promising area 12 months ago was microwaves https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3588869/ Other areas were being explored for when atmospheric conditions weren't favourable to a specific technology
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions were the thing five years ago and are being supplied to Ukraine, but how times change 🙂
Some Korean style DMZ could be the result but far less stable.
Who gives up a chunk of land? Who polices almost 2000km?
Ukraine has heard about border agreements and treaties before and would prefer simple NATO membership. Hungary, and probably a handful of others as well, certainly won't go for membership though
Crimea is more suited to being a DMZ and can attract tourist money with its Black Sea coast. Ukraine-controlled, civilian policing only
Russia is 28 times the size of Ukraine (approximately 603,550 sq km, while Russia is approximately 17,098,242 sq km) and they want another 20% of Ukraine? No country should settle on those terms.
...if he can’t guarantee his port Tartus...
It looks like the die is cast. Russian ships have left Tartus, which suggests that Russia will focus on Ukraine; those ships can't influence Ukraine because they won't be allowed access to the Black Sea
Rebel forces in Syria are advancing south towards Homs, a staging post in Iran's logistics chain supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon. That's arguably good for stability in the middle-east, but could mean more availability of Iranian materiel for Russia to use in Ukraine. That's in the future though and a successful middle-east ceasefire will see greater availability in any event
No country should settle on those terms.
The hard logic of the Lanchester laws will probably dictate otherwise.
Seeing reports a russian ship has fired warning shots at a german helicopter. doesn't seem like an entirely sensible thing to do at this current time
Given Berlin's often cosy attitude towards Russia does that count as friendly fire?
^ apparently German helicopter was / is monitoring sanctions being broken in the Baltic, the Russian Navy assisting civilian smuggler ships and more.
Seeing reports a russian ship has fired warning shots at a german helicopter.
It's one of those "deniable" issues that Germany will probably ignore, "Russian ship fires internationally-recognised signal flare"
It's good to see that someone is monitoring shipping in an area full of sub-sea cables; two have been cut there in the past few weeks
3 minute read from Ruth Deyermond (Senior Lecturer in Post-Soviet Security, King's College, London) about calling President Putin's nuclear bluff
Not a great deal of insight in there.
Russia going all in to try and liberate what they can in Donetsk, theyve made a bit of ground lately but at huge cost in men and equipment (even by their standards) 45,000 casualties a month!
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lcixjzo2cs2v
Having to move their ships out of Tartus implies they think theres a good chance they could lose the base, if Russia/Assad cant regain control of Syria itll be a big humiliation for Russia and cause them problems for their presence in Africa, the HTS are still advancing, and Assads troops pullling back from HAma which iis a stepping stone to Tartus and the coast
Im not sure HTS can use this stuff but T90 tanks & anti air systems arent cheap!
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lci26ytp722h
Rebel forces in Syria are advancing south towards Homs, a staging post in Iran’s logistics chain supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon. That’s arguably good for stability in the middle-east, but could mean more availability of Iranian materiel for Russia to use in Ukraine. That’s in the future though and a successful middle-east ceasefire will see greater availability in any event
But will Iran react to that, what if Iran decides to intervene directly in Syria!?
This passage from the ISW article is important - India no longer has confidence in Russia as an arms supplier. That will deprive Russia of a major source of funds for their defense sector and hand it to Russia's rivals.
India is reportedly attempting to decouple its defense industry from Russia as it increases cooperation with Western defense companies and builds up its own defense industrial base (DIB). Bloomberg reported on December 3 that senior Indian officials stated that India has sharply reduced its defense equipment orders from Russia and instead started purchasing defense equipment from Western suppliers.[14] The officials reportedly stated that India canceled plans to jointly develop and manufacture helicopters and advanced fighter jets with Russia "some time ago" and that India is unlikely to move forward with plans to lease a Russian nuclear-powered submarine to train Indian crews as India is building its own submarines. One unnamed senior Indian official reportedly stated that Russian-made weapons are often cheaper than Western weapons but need frequent repairs, which increases their long-term costs. ISW has previously reported on other sources of increased tensions within the Russia-India relationship, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's August 23 visit to Ukraine and the reported transfer of Indian artillery shells through European intermediaries to Ukraine.[15]
I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is also pulling back from supplying arms given the amount of kit they have lost I would imagine they need all their capacity to keep their war effort going - exporting has got to be secondary
I see ISW stating (again) that Russia cannot sustain those types of loses. Whilst I agree I can't believe they can, somehow they seem to just keep going.
But will Iran react to that, what if Iran decides to intervene directly in Syria!?
Considering that this week the US has been merrily using A10 warthogs to strafe anything Iran-related that even looks at them funny in Syria I suspect that Iran are going to be very wary of putting troops on the ground.
But will Iran react to that, what if Iran decides to intervene directly in Syria!?
IMHO Iran won't. They don't have an air force in the conventional sense and Tom Cruise stole one of their remaining working F14 aircraft in TG Maverick
Iran does have missile stocks, but what is needed is a ground force and they won't supply that because of the danger of a rebellion in Iran, which is what happened in Syria. In Syria rebels took the opportunity when Russia transferred troops and Israel decimated Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, and its command structure.
Iran wouldn't confront Israel with any more than a symbolic missile strike earlier this year because sending the IRGC into war would remove the regime's protection. Religious zealots would have confronted Israel, but survival of the theocracy prevailed. It doesn't help that IRGC senior command was suspected of leaking Hezbollah movements and arrests resulted
Iraqi Hezbollah supplied some 300 troops earlier this week, but that won't go far in the grand scheme
I'll leave it there and suggest that non-Ukraine posts go elsewhere (TBF, mine was pretty nebulous) 🙂