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@nobeerinthefridge - I'm not no. Fancied a long run in the hills that weekend instead.
@spin - Great stuff.
Final Aberfoyle Night Race tonight, which I can now thankfully make. Should be painful/good.
Maybe I need to take it a bit more steadily so I can actually do my core exercises in conjunction with some gentle running...
C25K Week 7, run 1 completed at lunch today.
Went nice and steady, had plenty left in the tank and could have run for another 5 mins without too much issue.
2.87miles / 4.63km
25:03 moving time
8:42 /mile / 5:25 /km average pace
5:30 /km seems to be a good steady pace for me, that would mean a 27:30 5k.
ran last night .
have been bunged up with the cold the last week.
Was fighting with my watch to hold 6min/km thinking jesus next weeks marathons gonna be hellish if this is my pace.
got to the furthest point and my watch said "gps found" ..... running on the accelerometer shows much slower running speeds than actual.
turned out id been running at 4.20min/km pace which is why i was finding it tough
Doh
Did a 10k race last weekend, felt fine. Stopped after, leg locked up with pain (side of leg in line with knee). Couple of days later I was back running no problem. Yesterday, had run 10k, stopped to eat for 2 mins before setting off for the second half, same pain again. Any ideas?
Lol @ TR! 😂
Finally a dry, cold and sunny day, and first pre work Munro of the year. Narnain (plus Cobbler) in truly stunning conditions (this was Friday)
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Sunday turned into a long run out to the Kilpatricks from West End, which was actually a lot drier than the forecast suggested.
Already looking forward to the weekend, and two days up north.
Awesome pics will!
I've been pretty lazy recently, still doing as many runs, but just been doing shorter distances, and it showed at last week's ultra.
Been doing plenty gym work, feel strong, just need to up the mileage again, some decent weather would be good too mind.
Carnethy this weekend, I'll be suffering I reckon. Then a 12.5k on Sunday with OH in kirkintilloch.
Anyone else finding it really hard to get out there at the moment?
It’s cold, it’s windy and it’s often wet and I’m finding it really hard to get the mileage up at the moment. Was meant to be doing a reasonably long run today but just looking out of the window is putting me off.
Aye, just keeping it short and gym sessions lunge.
Came across a full body dumbbell workout that's a killer, 45 mins of pain.
Really been enjoying the MTB again, after almost 2 weeks of sprain life. I can walk OK, bit of pain - swelling's gone down around the heel, just a fairly big tender hump over the outside ankle bone/knobble. Been keeping it mobile, going to start with the propioception exercises this week. Other than that, fingers crossed - hoping for a return to racing around easter but not counting on it.
Aye, just keeping it short and gym sessions lunge.
I’m doing a couple of spin classes per week, a couple of circuits classes and will still do 30 or so miles but I wanted to be at 45 plus by now.
It’s just annoying when you want feel like you should go out but can’t quite motivate yourself to do so.
I find that planning a run in advance depending on expected weather conditions usually does me OK.
If it's been pretty wet then I will avoid the really soggy paths and mud traps and stick to road or less saturated off road routes.
Forget what the weathers doing currently and just get wrapped up appropriately for the conditions.
I've been out over lunch and did 14 which I'd planned. I had hail, wind, snow, sun and rain.
I'm glad I'm back now though.
It's the first 5 minutes that are the killer, once your through that it's easy.
This running game is mainly in the head anyway.
Here's a pic from Saturday's outing, 41km up and down the local mountains - very slow but good training for upcoming ultras 🙂
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Forecast rain more or less held off, a bit of drizzle at one point then a bit of snow but nothing too serious. A good day out!
So another newbie runner here. I've never enjoyed running, but kids mean time is limited for riding and I live next to Lyme Park so figured I should get out on the trails and it might be more interesting than pounding the tarmac which I've tried in the past.
I did a run in Oct and then two or three in Nov last year but started running regularly on NYE and managed about 39 miles in Jan, running two or three times a week (3 miles night runs and some longer 4.5m runs). In Feb I'm trying to keep this up and have done 13 miles in 3 runs.
It's actually started to become enjoyable and I've a number of trail routes or canal routes with very limited road sections at the start/end.
However, I have discomfort in my left calf, outer edge. Only seems to be present when running and isn't painful enough to stop, but there's definite pain/discomfort. Any ideas what this could be? It's roughly 2/3rds of the way up from my ankle (or 1/3 way down from my knee). I did fracture my left Fibia about 7 years ago in a similar position and have wondered if it's somehow connected to that as searching calf injuries online isn't really directing me anywhere. I've bought new Asics trail trainers for this so don't think its connected to shoe cushioning.
I'd like to keep running to maintain the routine I've started but I'm assuming I should be resting it for a week or two?
I’d like to keep running to maintain the routine I’ve started but I’m assuming I should be resting it for a week or two?
Hard part when you kick off the running for me was knowing what to rest and what to run through.
I'd be tempted to keep going with that, unless it gets much worse. IANAD though. 😊
First off road club run last night. I've done a few road sessions but have always struggled to make the mid-week fell side of the club. All good, muddy fun and wasn't back of the group so I guess I chose the right pace / distance. 12k by head torch around the hills around Lyme Park.
Tricky question though - what's the etiquette with farting when running with groups of strangers? I often find running makes me need a good fart, which was compounded last night by the big bowl of dhal I'd had lunch.
@dooosuk, Sounds like a classic new runners tweak to me. A few things to try:
Massage. Rub your calf up and down to warm it up and find the point where there's some pain. Them really get your thumbs in and rub that point. It may well release the problem.
Stretch lots. Straight after each run, then an hour or so later. And frankly, at any other point you have 2 minutes spare. If you have a foam roller this can be useful too.
Calf raises and lowers, there a piuc in this link, they helped me a lot.
But from what you've said, it's not a huge amount to worry about, if it starts heading to over 7 out of 10 in the discomfort levels then think about having a few days off.
I did my first club run last night and it was bloody brilliant.
I'm not a huge fan of clubs generally, and have had some less than great experiences with cycling clubs particularly, but the lovely people of Stourbridge Running club were just great.
A sharp 8 mile run, harder than I would have done on my own which is what I wanted, some good chat and the offer of a pint afterward, you can ask for much more than that I don't think.
Turns out my prejudices about clubs may be wrong, and I'll definitely be back next week.
@lunge/@NoBeer Thanks, I'll just carry on then and see how it goes. Certainly not painful enough to stop getting out at the moment.
lunge, that could've read as a post I'd have typed, comparing running club to my cycling club experiences!.
Does anybody know of anywhere that makes custom lasted running shoes for the general public?
I know a few big companies do this for their sponsored athletes. A few years ago salomon and brooks were demonstrating prototype systems which allowed them to scan a runners foot and 3d print a shoe. It all seems to have gone a bit silent recently though.
I went to the podiatrist today as have developed a niggling problem with my big toe joint which is now bigger than it should be. Basically caused by exercising on hard surfaces in shoes that don't fit. Have been prescribed orthotics, but doesn't resolve the basic problem that the back of my foot is very narrow, with a fairly short arch, but my fore foot and big toes are huge, so off the shelf running shoes just don't fit.
Most of my shoes don't have enough height in the toe box to accommodate the orthotics I've been prescribed either.
the basic problem that the back of my foot is very narrow, with a fairly short arch, but my fore foot and big toes are huge, so off the shelf running shoes just don’t fit.
Try some Altras, they have a huge forefoot. Zero drop though, so you might need a while to adjust to them.
Altra don't work for me.
Older models were generally too loose. Tried the timp2 recently and the fit is generally good but the toe box is too low and I really didn't like the way they felt to run in.
Would a normal shoe in a wide fit work? I know Nike and ASICS do wide versions, and Brooks do wide and extra wide, the latter of which I’d imagine will be huge as the normal fitting wide ones are big anyway.
Thinking more @wardee, there are some places that will modify running shoes. Solution4Feet in Bicester are a ski boot fitter primarily but mod running shoes too and are very good at it.
Might be worth thinking about if a normal wide shoe won’t work.
The bicester place appears to be just a podiatry place, making standard orthotics.
It's not as simple as just getting a wide shoe unfortunately.
@wardee, they're a bit more than that (for the record, I have no relationship with them bar me having odd feet and a penchant for close fitting ski boots, something they have sorted many times for me). They don't do custom shoes but they do modify footwear and can stretch shoes to make space for orthotics and for "odd" bits of foot.
The owner Colin is a lovely, if somewhat grumpy Scotsman who seems to know everyone in the footwear world, he may be worth speaking to as if he can't sort it, he'll know someone who can.
Apologies for any offence Lunge, was just the impression I got from the website.
Bicesters a bit of a trek from edinburgh, but I'll bear them in mind if I'm ever down that way. I've asked more local shoe repair places about modifying running shoes in the past, but they generally don't want to know.
Getting custom fit ski boots and cycling shoes is a lot easier. Maybe I should just change sports.
Tried my new orthotics for the first time today.today. Managed just 6 km at an easy pace on the flat.before I started getting a tight calf and hotspots on my feet. Early days yet, but not a great start.
Get Brant to design you/modify some? Sure he’s got a running shoe designing thing going on on the side.
I have arthritis in one big toe joint which causes all kinds of issues and found hoka shoes helped with the large and stiff forefoot. Being a forefoot striker I found them good but bulky and hard to get up any speed. Just bought a pair of Nike (my favourite brand when I was more competitive) which have the carbon plate so nice and stiff but nothing large in the toe box.
I have been prescribed orthotics a few times over the years. Never once got them in my running shoes nor my normal shoes. It's only my opinion but I would never wear a pair as I just don't think they work. Maybe more extreme cases where they are useful but I am sceptical that you can alter biomechanics this way, nor through control shoes. Never met a runner who wore anti pronation shoes for example that benefited
!Haha, none taken @wardee. His website is crap, but he knows feet! Ignore at your leisure!
Well spent the last 2 weeks Ill so not even run close to the plan.
If nothing else I'll be proper rested for tomorrows trail marathon in storm Dennis.
Yay. At least skins waterproof
After a few unpleasant runs, gasping and feeling crap, I did a nice 10km this morning - feeling strong and stable (copyright Theresa May). Glad it must have just been the lurgy rather than losing the ability to run.
Still seem to be pegged at a pace of 5.30 to 5.50/km though. 56mins for the 10km.
I'm not that fussed TBH, but if I wanted to get a bit faster, how would I go about it?
Well that went exactly as expected.
Zero enthusiasm and lack of training due to lack of sleep and illness (kids eh)
Ran first 20k really well but it was apparent by then knowing the profile I would be coming out in a land rover.
Elected to run the short course and as I predicted was reduced to walking by about 27km with a stabbing pain in the tendons in my right knee....I'm pretty sure it's my hip again.
Hobbled the rest of the way.
Great course . Would thoughrally recommend to anyone looking for a trail marathon.
Cha****ng - best way to get quicker is intervals, in my experience. Also, long, slow runs, which I don’t do enough of and shorter slow runs, again which I should do more of. Slow as in your own slow.
What he said.
Really, really slow long runs
Interval sessions
Tempo runs
Find folk to run with
Don't fall into the trap of doing all your runs at 'your pace', you'll stagnate.
Chin up Terry, it's early in the year yet, you'll be reet.
Carnethy 5 was mental yesterday, massive kudos to the Marshalls at all 5 summits.
First run in inov8 mudclaws, it'll be the last, way too narrow - not the fit, the high, narrow soles feel unstable. Brilliant in mud, but not for me, I prefer a wider sole.
Intervals, fartlek, hills. All good for building speed along with slower paced miles. Speed is a relative thing but if you want to get quicker then you don't want to spend much time, too far away from your goal pace. If you train too slowly don't expect to race much faster. Running long slow runs make you better at running long slow runs surprisingly.
Never met a runner who wore anti pronation shoes for example that benefited
Don't agree with @surfer regarding stretching, but this completely matches my experience. A nice neutral shoe with more padding if you're just starting / less padding if you're faster and you're done.
Today was a relatively easy 21km run up a local mountain, here's a picture of some circling vultures and a sea of clouds for you:
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Cha****ng, I'd suggest a few things already mentioned above:
Intervals/fartlek. They don't have to be perfectly timed or measured, just run hard to that tree, slow to the next one, and repeat.
Hill sprints. Deeply unpleasant if done right, but real benefits too.
Tempo runs are good too, though I find I'm better at them when done with a group as they can be hard work. Which leads to...
Run with others, a club perhaps. Nothing like running with people who are faster than you to push you.
What I don't agree with is "Really, really slow long runs"
If you're training for an event then your long runs need to be in the ballpark of your target pace. I find that if I do to many of these then my body adapts to the slower pace, which is not the idea at all. All my training runs, bar the odd recovery plod, are the same pace or faster than target event pace.
spoke with the physio dude last night.
the plan is NSAIDs this week and a heavy program of squats and deadlifts and start short runs after that. Back on the turbo for now. I can do that without pain. its up and downhills/stairs that kill me.
Same thing as last year , i never learn - I have been doing my squats and deadlifts but not diligently enough and not progressively enough.
I'm over compensating for weak hip flexors and with my quads and possibly dropping a hip on that side. which is exasperating it sooner than it would if i ran with level hips.
Never mind - it was never going to be a great year for anything. shed road of building work at the house - it will at least mean plenty of lifting, squatting,deadlifting - and active recovery i'm going to call it.
Week 7 of C25K completed, just 2 weeks left now. Back to my normal slighly hilly route, which is getting slighly easier at the 'summit' on the home leg. This weeks runs have all been within 0.1km so nice and consistent, will keep the same pace for next weeks runs.
2.87 miles / 4.62km
25:09 moving time
8:45 /mile / 5:26 /km average pace
I'm starting to think about life after C25K, I would love to be able to run 10k 'comfortably', I'll probably try and fit in 2x 5k runs per week with a longer run, increasing distance, so 6k, 7k, etc.
I'm also unconvinced by the 'run slow to run fast' idea. I think it's key to nurture good form to run fast e.g. cadence, knee and heel lift, stride contact point i.e not overstriding. Too much slow running just reinforces form weaknesses slow runners will likely already have in these areas. Over the last couple of years my best results at 5/10k have always been preceded by hammering out tempo/fast hills/intervals, and when I go through a spell of long mountain runs, the top speed at 5k slips away.
Aye, every chance I'm wrong, or it's more a mental crutch, hammering out 10k pace for 40 minutes doesn't seem as daunting when I've ran (albeit slowly!) For a lot longer, and for a few hours.
Makes it feel a lot smaller. 🤔😊
@wardee have you tried Footworks out in Currie? They specialise in barefoot shoes, but should be able to give you some insight into your feet too.
@wardee also check out Topo shoes. They are similar to Altra in concept. My wife uses them and they seem to have a massive toe box which appears to be deep as well as wide. Not sure if they'll be suitable for you but worth a look.
Does anyone else donate blood, and if so, how long does it affect your running?
I gave a pint Monday lunch time, went for a plod Tuesday morning and felt like everything was harder than it should have been. I'm running with a club tonight and need to decide which group to go in, the one I normally do and am conformable, or a slower one to make up for the lack of blood!
I usually give blood around 1800 after work, and feel okay to run at 1200 next day, but we're all different!.
Cheers for the suggestions, thought footworks was online only these days?
Resorted to running in hiking boots yesterday bit heavy, but at least they fit.
Or as the greatest athlete of the 20C said:
<a
With regards to slow running. Context is everything and slow is relative.
An elite runner will typically run 100+ miles a week, yet ask them to race 5km, and most of them collapse when they cross the line and are half dead.
It is not possible to run for several hours a day unless you run significantly slower than race pace* for the majority of your training.
What the elite road and track runñers who are running 'slow" don't usually do is run for 3 or more hours at a time at a pace which affects their form.
* longer ultras are a bit different.
With regards to slow running. Context is everything and slow is relative
Context is important, as are realistic paces.
I use "race pace" in the context of the distance you're aiming at. So if you want to do a 4 hour marathon then I would be doing all my running at a minimum of 9 minute mile as that's roughly the pace I need to run to hut the goal.
What I don't see the point of, using the above example, is doing my long runs at 10 minute miles.
Cheers for the tips folks.
I think virtually all my solo runs are "tempo", and I recently joined a local club where I tend to run a bit slower at more of a conversational pace. Maybe I should join a more serious club as well.
I do intervals on the Wattbike in the gym - but I guess you need to actually run intervals to get your body used to running a bit faster.
So my current 10km time is about 56mins. What might be a realistic aim for a half marathon? I was thinking 2hrs is the obvious target.
Just to note, I tend to get knee and leg pain before I run out of puff.
I think virtually all my solo runs are “tempo”, and I recently joined a local club where I tend to run a bit slower at more of a conversational pace. Maybe I should join a more serious club as well.
Aren't you doing intervals or any speed work as well? I'd have though most running clubs mix it up, tempo one session, intervals another, etc.
And yeah, 2 hours seems a reasonable target given your 10k pace.
Aren’t you doing intervals or any speed work as well? I’d have though most running clubs mix it up, tempo one session, intervals another, etc.
They're fairly new and more just people getting together and running, but they're nice and friendly and I can run to the meeting point from my house so it's very handy. There are some interval sessions but not at times I can do.
There are a couple of other more racing-focused clubs locally, so I may spread myself around a bit when time allows.
An elite runner will typically run 100+ miles a week, yet ask them to race 5km, and most of them collapse when they cross the line and are half dead.
Not sure why you think this would be the case.
@lunge yes thats the point I have made before. Its relative to target race pace. Train over and under that pace but you shouldnt train too much outside those parameters otherwise you are wasting energy, opportunity and it can be injurious.
Thats not to say its not great fun and I do almost all of my "running" at jogging pace now but its just not optimum and you wont get faster runners wasting much energy for that reason.
I used to do a twice monthly session of 24 x 400 which was useful, all around 75 secs per lap with around 90 secs recovery. Tough but good training for everything from 5k upwards. Another session I did every Monday at the end of a steady run was 10 x approx 100m flat out with a short recovery. That was really useful for turning over your legs as fast as possible. Too much mileage can make you slow so build into it lots of short sessions, another was 20 x 200 on the track but they have to be close to max speed, not say 10k pace.
I've hardly done any tempo stuff for a wee while, or track sessions! Think I'll mibbe go parkrun this weekend, see where I'm at. It won't be pleasant. 😂
Bloody lovely club run today, felt much better than expected after giving blood.
I do love how it’s all very pleasant and social for 6 miles then it slowly starts to string out until the last mile and half turn in to a proper smash-up.
Only my second run with them but I already really like it.
@surfer, I'm not entirely sure why you disagree.
It is fairly obvious that elites put in a lot of effort when they race, and when you watch a track event on the telly they are often seen rolling round on the floor at the end.
The 100+ mile a week is fairly typical based on various sources I've read over the years. Googling Mo Farah for example gives a figure of 135 miles a week.
On a personal note I find that if most of my training is slow, I perform better at all distances from 5km upwards . It allows me to recover much better and it allows me to run a much higher number of miles in total. In the sessions when I do undertake speed work or hill repeats, my legs are fresher and I can run harder. I get less niggles and injuries and can run for much longer.
10 minute mile and slower pace becomes highly relevant when you start running offroad, and competing in long ultramarathons.
@wardee you phrased it in a way that indicated that the 100mpw was somehow a poor preparation when it is likely to be perfect. Collapsing at the end of a 5k where you have ran an extremely fast 5km means nothing.
Feeling fresh after slow miles and before track sessions is fine if the goal is to "feel fresh" but for optimum racing performance it's about being at the limit of the training that your body can handle. Too much and you risk injury, too little and that small amount could be used to push you to faster times.
Someone I know who is pretty decent (2:25 Mara) uses the rule where he trains (tempo) at 1min per mile less than his race pace, so he's somewhere around 6:30 or maybe a bit less pace for tempos.
He focuses on Marathons but races most distances and is pretty rapid.
I guess for a lot of people 6:30 min/miles will be pretty rapid, but that's his slow pace.
It's all relative
When He's doing speed work he'll be well inside 5:30 pace so as Surfer suggests, to improve you need to be doing some slower (relative) and some faster work.
For Ultra training I would assume a pace much slower than 5:30s for racing at so it would again be relative to estimated race day pace.
This all assumes pushing the limits of whats individually possible. Not everyone wants to do that and train at high intensity or push the boundaries when racing, so it really depends on what you want to get out of your racing.
It's never one size fits all.
I seldom listen to running podcasts as I find them a bit stilted but I spotted this because it had an interview with Mike Gratton and i am glad I did. The interviewer didnt ask any silly questions and allowed Mike to speak and Mike is clearly very confident and articulate. I didnt know he trained with Ovetts group in Brighton and I was very surprised to learn he had run 49 seconds for 400m which is very quick indeed and really shows the importance of speed. Anyway worth a listen IMO
Nobeerinthefridge
I’ve hardly done any tempo stuff for a wee while, or track sessions! Think I’ll mibbe go parkrun this weekend, see where I’m at. It won’t be pleasant. 😂
That scientific method is my exact same way of measuring speed.
🙂
We have a club time trial every tuesday night, 5k around Alloway, but tuesday is my uni day so can't make it. Next year my day changes though!.
Do you love running? Really? Are you sure? 'Cos only 8% of runners actually love running. Most of us just tolerate it.
https://www.runnersworld.com/uk/news/a31014592/strava-why-we-run-survey/
Context is important, as are realistic paces.
I use “race pace” in the context of the distance you’re aiming at. So if you want to do a 4 hour marathon then I would be doing all my running at a minimum of 9 minute mile as that’s roughly the pace I need to run to hut the goal.
What I don’t see the point of, using the above example, is doing my long runs at 10 minute miles.
So you would run your long runs at target marathon pace? Everyone is different but if I tried to do this I would end up injured.
Another mildly embarrassing personal question...
Runner's nip and how to prevent it?
Got it for the first time last week doing 10kmv in the rain with a synthetic base layer.
Will chamois cream do the trick?
Tight, properly tight baselayers. I've ran for 9 hours in them, cheap ones I got from races as well, no worries.
A sunny 10k in my club vest will see my nipples feeling like I've taken a belt sander to them.
Runner’s nip and how to prevent it?
Wee bit of zinc oxide tape or similar.
I'll try a tighter base tomorrow eve, ta. Should be nice and soggy out again.
Hairy tits and tape are not good either! 🤣
So, ankle ligaments.
Morning after Falkirk ultra, 3 weeks ago, my right ankle was swollen - outside only, just below ankle bone - I never went over on it or anything, no one off occasion that may have caused it, but the course was exceptionally muddy, probably just cumulative effect of constant unstable foot placement.
Anyway, it's still feels a bit odd, still swollen, but fine to run on, absolutely no pain while running at all, just feels a tad sore when sitting at desk at work is all.
Keep running?.
I'll book an appointment with local sports physio, but in meantime, I appreciate thoughts.
I'd be riding the bike for a few days with that I think. My physio bollocked me yesterday for waiting three weeks before going to her with my ankle sprain btw, I'd assumed it was too swollen to do anything with but rest but she said the electric magic wand thing would have worked wonders the day after.
Anyway, I'm cleared to start jogging on the beach, off out now. Bit nervous...
Edit, just reread it was 3 weeks ago. Few days on the bike wouldn't make much difference then, crack on. Don't they say any pain over about a 5 is stop immediately?
Runner’s nip and how to prevent it?
Tight baselayer is one solution, sticking plasters also work, and another is vaseline or anti-chafe cream. Decathlon sells the latter if you've got one nearby. (FWIW for ultras I have a small pot of vaseline I carry with me).
anti-chafe cream
Should be very similar to my chamois cream, no?
Gonna try that combined with a tighter baselayer this eve anyway, ta.
@nobeerinthefridge I am not best placed to give advice on this subject after racing with stress fractures in my youth but if its not painful when you are running or doesnt react badly post-run then I think I would continue to run. Just dial it back and monitor it.
My first month or two of hill running caused my ankles to swell so much the skin blistered. Just kept on top of the physio and strengthening exercises and kinda muddled through it. Something to be said for gradually building up!
Just back in from the beach - first run went OK, jogged 5km on the firmish sand which defeats the object somewhat. No real pain from the ankle, couple of sharp intakes of breath dodging puddles, but bloody hell the hip flexors are sore. Amazing how fast you go backwards with three weeks off.
Entered the Newlands Memorial at easter (actually wanted to do the Teenager but thought that was taking the piss), gonna be a struggle to get anywhere approaching fit enough for the fells.
And the draw for Zegama is today. Daren't check my emails...
Never done the Teenager. The Anni Waltz (as was) is an tough enough race. I need to get my finger out and get some miles in as I've got Haworth Hobble coming up in 3 weeks. My Mrs said to me last night 'I can't believe how casual you are about it.' You say casual but 'slack' or possibly 'stupid' might be better words.
Should be very similar to my chamois cream, no?
Dunno, I don't suppose it'd hurt though.
And the draw for Zegama is today. Daren’t check my emails…
Wouldn't be too concerned, you're probably more likely to win the Euromillions 😀