[Closed] The Greek Referendum: I predict a Yes

I predict a riot.

I agree with Zippy.

Would you like your huge shit snadwich on brown or white bread?

I also predict a ....

[img] [/img]

I predict a riot too... Or possibly three...

No - Greece may as well do what Argentina did and tell the IMF to do one.

Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland are just dying to see whether actually Greece simply ceases to exist or whether like Argentina they muddle through but without loads of debt.

If the latter I predict that Greece won't be the only Eurozone country to default.

With this scenario in mind it is the EU, the ECB and the IMF who will blink first.

The whole European project can probably survive a 'Grexit) but not as Spexit or a Pexit as well.

The whole European project can probably survive a 'Grexit) but not as Spexit or a Pexit as well.

Not quite the same problem in those countries though. The Greeks can no longer afford to service their debt let alone balance the books, the other countries just have big debts. A bit like the Tories telling everyone that Britain was in as bad a position as Greece when in reality our cuts have barely had an effect on the majority.

I predict they go the way of Argentina.

But it'll take Putin's help, there aren't any mints in the world that could produce a new currency overnight, it'll take weeks, which means keeping it secret from the markets, which means Russia. And means that if that's what they're going to do then the decision will have been made weeks ago.

European 'democracy' will triumph again...

there aren't any mints in the world that could produce a new currency overnight

Speculative, I think they'll just about stay in the EU, not pay back the debt, run the country with instability for the next two years. The debt will then get written off by the IMF a a gesture of GoodWill and with that outcome Ireland/Spain and Italy will all back off paying back debt in such large amounts relaxing the payments to something like a realistic affordability scale.

Countries on Benefits, Call Me Dave will be furious.

[@Thisisnot etc. No - they're not in the same position as they are happy to bend over and take more austerity cuts in return for continued funding.

Greece can have the money they need so long as they agree to onerous terms.

My thoughts are - if Greece decide not to pay and the whole country carries on with everyone at least not worse off than they are now and with things slowly getting better there will be pressure on the governments of the other PIGS countries to consider doing the same...

[img] ?w=940&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=64680385db47ea09f2f45bdd58cb2a42[/img]

TBF it comes down to the other parties. I think at this point, you'd have to be pretty stupid to trust the troika to do the right thing. They can't even decide what the right thing is and it never occurs to them to undo damage they've already done and accepted responsibility for, never mind try to mitigate future damage. I would vote no, rather than put the long term fate of my country in their hands. The very best they can possibly be is incompetent and dishonest, but often it seems like that's not enough to explain their conduct.

The big issue is that these problems remain post grexit- in any sane world these organisations would work to minimise the damage and smooth the exit but we're way through the looking glass and they could easily decide that their job is to make greece's exit as disasterous as possible as a lesson to others.

I'm not going to call it either way though, it's not like they're currently able to make an informed decision.

Looks like Greece are preparing to cave in almost completely.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11709868/Greece-crisis-defaults-IMF-live.html

Should have bought my holiday Euros yesterday. Bollocks.

Northwind has it. I would vote no for the lesser of two evils

there's a simple solution.

get the greek people to pay their taxes.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2109500

holding the EU to ransom, I would tell them to get fu*ked if I was Merkin.

holding the EU to ransom

That's a pretty ridiculous way to describe it. Neither the current greek govt or the people at large are responsible for the current situation, but they have to deal with it. They're making the perfectly reasonable point that the current 'solution' has failed, and will continue to get worse indefinitely. Even the troika's own research ([url= http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/30/greek-debt-troika-analysis-says-significant-concessions-still-needed ]as published in the guardian yesterday[/url]) agrees with them. What you describe as holding the EU to ransom they probably see as attempting to break the never ending cycle of austerity, increasing debt and the impoverishment of an entire nation at the altar of European dogma and the protection of corrupt politicians, officials, businessmen, and bankers who created the whole mess.

Neither the current greek govt or the people at large are responsible for the current situation

so, who did the systemic and persistent tax avoidance?

the altar of European dogma

oh yeah, EU bad. forgot.

NW nails it
the only think in Greeces favour is that the EZ dont want to see a country leave as it may be like a row of dominoes

that said who would trust them when their own leaked papers show they know the plan cannot work

[img] [/img]

holding the EU to ransom, I would tell them to get fu*ked if I was Merkin.

The thing is the biggest winners in the EZ are Germany as they can sell their goods to countries that could not afford them if the German currency was at it's natural exchange rate.... Of coarse they could easily afford a Grexit, but if it started a domino effect the biggest losers would be Germany in the long run. I predict a last minute German funded bail out.

but if it started a domino effect

Why would it, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have all got sustainable debt levels and are slowly recovering. Greece is by far the outlier.

[@Thisisnot etc. No - they're not in the same position as they are happy to bend over and take more austerity cuts in return for continued funding.

Greece can have the money they need so long as they agree to onerous terms.

My thoughts are - if Greece decide not to pay and the whole country carries on with everyone at least not worse off than they are now and with things slowly getting better there will be pressure on the governments of the other PIGS countries to consider doing the same...

No one forced them to take the loans. They've been taking loans for years, and expecting to repay them by taking out new loans. Until they reached a point where the loans became so big (and the availability of credit got smaller) that they're in this mess.

[s]Neither the current greek govt or [/s]the people at large are responsible for the current situation

FTFY, they voted in parties promising low tax and high public spending. They knew thee loans would need repaying at some point.

It's crap, but it's not Germany's fault.

Interesting figures on the Greek debt though.

They have been 'lent' c. 350bn euros but have had to use c. £330bn euros paying back the loans.

The Greek government has only had, in real terms, 20bn euros to play with...

so, who did the systemic and persistent tax avoidance?

they voted in parties promising low tax and high public spending. They knew thee loans would need repaying at some point.

Ok I'll accept this point if someone can show me a single political party pre-Syriza who offered the people the option of not joining the euro, not taking out huge loans to fund public sector giveaways, not making corrupt arms and infrastructure deals with foreign (german, mostly) companies, and not tackling the endemic tax evasion by the upper echelons of greek society. The people can only vote for the parties in front of them. All of them (the political parties, that is) were in on it, encouraged by both europe and western investment bankers and corporations who all made a packet. But yeah, lets continue blaming the man in the street for being naive enough to believe politicians who told him he could have a decent pension when he retired... 🙄

but if it started a domino effect
Why would it, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have all got sustainable debt levels and are slowly recovering. Greece is by far the outlier.

Good point, I did say if, I think the if is more likely to come from political shifts rather than economic, but I think Germany would not want to risk it.

Ok I'll accept this point if someone can show me a single political party pre-Syriza who offered the people the option of not joining the euro, not taking out huge loans to fund public sector giveaways, not making corrupt arms and infrastructure deals with foreign (german, mostly) companies, and not tackling the endemic tax evasion by the upper echelons of greek society. The people can only vote for the parties in front of them.

Egg chicken, chicken egg. Perhaps the politicians knew that if they said any of this they would be unelectable? People are not good at taking long term difficult decisions, it is one of the weaknesses of democracy. Jam today and all that... Isn't there a saying that the people get the governments they deserve?

Interesting figures on the Greek debt though.

They have been 'lent' c. 350bn euros but have had to use c. £330bn euros paying back the loans.

The Greek government has only had, in real terms, 20bn euros to play with...

Without seeing where those figures came from it's hard to say for certain but I think you're wrong.

If I take out a £100k loan (e.g. a mortgage at about 3% for 25 years) I have £100k to play with but will pay back about £210k. At some point about 10 years in my repayments will have totalled about £90k, that doesn't mean I have £10k to play with. If I spent that money on a factory then that's fine, it's output will have been paying off the debt, if I've spent it on Haribo I'm up s*** creek without a paddle.

What the Greeks have done is repeatedly go to the bank and take out another loan to re-structure the existing debt. Unfortunately since 2007 that's not been possible and they've had to simultaneously accept living within their means and paying back the debt at the same time.

But yeah, lets continue blaming the man in the street for being naive enough to believe politicians who told him he could have a decent pension when he retired...

Like any scam, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

They used a lot of the money to service existing debts - debts they owed to other Eurozone countries already...

Perhaps the politicians knew that if they said any of this they would be unelectable

Will, Syriza just tried to give people an option and see what happened- enforced regime change following the scenario in the OP.

Polls predicting "No" but still plenty of don't knows, if I was voting I would be voting No just, my hesitancy due to my concern that Greece is not structurally capable of benefiting from a devaluation.

Like any scam, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

Before getting on high horses, we can confess that we all do the same. For example, we are all knowingly screwing up the planet by burning carbon, passing the buck to our kids, and not acting to stop it. Same mentality.

Why would it, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have all got sustainable debt levels and are slowly recovering. Greece is by far the outlier

It shows weakness basically and the markets dont mind exploiting that

dannybgoode - Member

They used a lot of the money to service existing debts - debts they owed to other Eurozone countries already...

And to eurozone banks. Classic nationalisation of debt and liability, protecting lenders from paying the price for their poor decisions.

Before getting on high horses, we can confess that we all do the same. For example, we are all knowingly screwing up the planet by burning carbon, passing the buck to our kids, and not acting to stop it. Same mentality.

Agree. Which is why voting YES is self-defeating.

Saying "yes" means taking on yet more debt and being forced to introduce measure that not only cause extreme hardship to the people of the country but have been shown to be very unlikely to actually ever work.
Much as I like the Euro as a concept, in the case of Greece their only realistic way of getting the situation back under control is to devalue their currency and they can't do that as it's not under their control. They're going to have to take the hard decision to drop out of the Euro, devalue and take the hit for a few years.

It isn't going to be pretty but it is their only realistic option. Well, assuming the big Euro countries like Germany don't want to actually help their neighbour, anyway...

Rachel

For me the most troubling aspect of this whole things is the fact that it's supposed to be a union that is established for the Good of all... Not the central Bank, or the German/Dutch voters, but everyone.

It astonishes me that "Deals" and Timetables" and "Offers" are bandied around when all of those things are self imposed, by the EU on another member of the EU, i.e. itself...One part of the organisation is trying to impose limits on another part of itself that it wouldn't be able to meet anyway. If you tried to force the folk of Germany to take the medicine that the folk of Greece are expected to swallow, there would rightly be rioting.

We're in this together right up until the point it becomes politically expedient not to be.

I'm not sure leaving is going to be the miracle cure people think as the Greek banks are essentially bust, so the whole thing will just collapse wiping out everything on the way down. Then they'll get inflation which will hit everyone public and private, so everyone gets poorer. I think Tsipras is starting to realise how nad a 'No' vote could be for the country and himself, hence, the re-opening of negotiations.

We're in this together right up until the point it becomes politically expedient not to be.

Just about sums it up.

See also...

[i]We'll set the rules so that they benefit us enormously, to the detrement of everyone else, until they don't, then we'll just change the rules.[/i]

There was an interesting point about the EU leaders summit the other day, where the Greek PM was asked to leave - so they could discuss his countries punishment. He demanded to know what the protocol was for this. he was told there wasn't one, as it wasn't actually a formal meeting, bound by any rules, but an informal discussion

So essentially... they can literally make it up as they go along. Once again... democratic accountability EU style!

dragon - Member

I'm not sure leaving is going to be the miracle cure people think

Nobody thinks this. Or at least, not that it's the cure for all ails. But it is the cure for one of the central issues and the one which threatens to continue to crush them indefinitely (by the IMF's admission) That leaves a hell of a lot of other problems, and introduces others.

But the government are wanting to protect pensions and I can't see how this is achievable and it is possible worse if they were to leave the EZ. Take Iceland as an example their pensions were heavily reduced and they had inflation (due to currency devaluing).

What are the terms of the loans (interest and timescales?)

When the U.S. lent the UK billions of dollars at the end of WW2 it was 2% over 50 years..

I don't get why Nation states, when loaning money, have to act like Wonga all of sudden. With Penalties, and time limited offers and so on...makes no sense

What industries do the Greek have apart from tourism and olive oil?

1. Continue to use EURO by borrowing more at the loan shark's terms by being the beggars of EU with no way back or paying back?

Or

2. Be skint and start to be self-reliance with dignity intact?

Bear in mind they still have farmland and they can fish. I doubt the Turks will invade them just because they don't use EURO.

As for the EU technocrats they are exerting their "political" (non-elected) power because this is an opportunity they so desire.

The EU ZM technocrats are like bunch of finance people in the company trying to run the company indirectly.

This is an example for UK to see and if UK let EU ZM technocrats ruled them.

🙄

I completely agree with chewkw

There. I said it.

DrJ - Member

I completely agree with chewkw

There. I said it.

😆 (someone agrees)

Greece really need to live within their means to avoid getting caught up with borrow to spend culture.

Sadly this Greek situation will not be the last that we will see in EURO coz there are still many countries that want to join to get "free money" if Greece can get away with constantly borrowing.

Imagine if Ukraine is adopting EURO ... 😯