[Closed] The end of the double-dip recession?

Or the beginning of the the triple-dip recession?

Yep, once the majority of Osbourne's cuts to the public sector kick in, we'll be right back in recession.

Well I'm flooded with work and in the last 4 weeks have had 6 inquiries from small-medium house builders to work on property developments.

This is the kind of movement we need to see at ground level to start moving the economy forwards.

So yes, I think we're climbing out, although it will be a very long and slow climb...

A dead dog bounce IMO.

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I expect Dave to stick his head out of the door of No 10, and simply say 'rejoice'

Based on what, ohnohesback?

glad thats over, does this mean that ill get a pay rise again, or even better my threat of redundancy in 2 months will be lifted?

Is there a breakdown of figures? I suspect what this actually means is that technically, London is out of recession. And as we all know; the rest of us don't actually exist

My Doom hackles. The euro crisiss has yet to be sorted. In fact giving Greece a loosening of it's bailout conditions has just made it worse, though few seem to have realised yet...

Based on what, ohnohesback?

I suspect he's just heard a phrase that he's wanted to use for a while and this was [i]almost[/i] a suitable opportunity.

So a skimming of the nation's media.

Well armed with that, you are definitely fully abreast of the whole complex situation 😉

Rejoice you say binners ?

On hearing the news this morn,I marched out with a spring in my step ,ordered a gold plated frappuccino stirring spurtle ,and I haven't stopped smiling all morning. Bye bye austerity.

aye its a statistical blip,we've been in a bit of a gale,the storm has yet to hit 😈

why doesnt everyone get out ot the 'recession/boom' mentality and just accept that its not a good idea to borrow money you can't confidently pay back anymore... instead of everyone being all wrapped up in the idea of a recession and getting out of it, lets jsut call it 'that time the banks learnt a lesson and most people suffered because of it, even the ones that didnt borrow more than they could pay back'

or TTTBLALAMPSBOTETOTDBMTTCPB for short

the idea that uk govt has any control over capitalism is as fallacious as the control a dog has over his cock.

Surely it's the idea that everyone can keep making more money for ever that got us into this situation in the first place?

And aren't we only actually back to year-2000-ish levels anyway? I don't remember feeling especially poor in 2000.

The best thing for the economy would be for everyone to STFU about the economy for a bit.

oops wrong thread there

Bye bye austerity.

Quite Fasthaggis. I feel the urge to buy something equally spurious. Maybe a diamond encrusted ipad stand? Yes. That'll do nicely

Happy days are here again.......

...or not continue to try to get blood out of a stone as many landlords try to. The housing market is flatlined, so are most people's incomes at best, so there is no reason for rents to continue rising.

philconsequence, I think the fourth T should have been an I?

yes I am bored, and on the dole 😀

hugh jardon - Member

you tried adult films for work 😉

on the dole?! shouldn't you be doing something useful like cleaning police cars? 😉

seriously though, the concept of a permanent boom only leads to more recessions surely? if people borrowed what they could afford, lived within their means and the banks assessed risk much better whilst having a legal responsibility to cover losses with their profits when lending our savings to people the economy would be a more stable place no?

companies would still fold, other companies would grow, jobs would still be created and jobs would still be lost.. people live, people die. But people need to take responsibility for their own actions and choices, as does the banking industry and regulatory bodies etc.

Communist!!!

Technically, the economy could shrink 10% for 2 months, then grow 0.1% in the 3rd and be out of recession. Repeat that cycle for a year, and you aren't in recession, but your country is fu@@ed!

And the good news continues to roll, let's rejoice!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-20078143

Genk, the Ford superplant that the Thatcherites were always lecturing UK workers about how their working practices were so in advance of ours, was announced to be closed yesterday with 4500 livelyhoods going down the U-bend.

As the Springsteen lyric (My Hometown) says. "Foreman says these jobs are going boys, and they 'ain't coming back..." Never mind, they can all work in coffee shops or supermarkets...

The end of a double-dip rescession?

lets hope so. the non-Londoners might pipe down for bit and get some bally work done.

if people borrowed what they could afford

I'm sure right now, there's a whole factory load of people in Southampton that thought they could afford to pay their mortgages

boom and bust is a cycle of capitalism, remember that eejit brown proclaiming"we've ended boom and bust"-- this time there are more contradictions, the old major economy(US) is stuttering with huge debt, the new major economy(china) is slowing down, so if anyone thinks this is a bright new age you are on good drugs

Being born in one of the wealthiest countries in the world doesn't give us a right to continued wealth and economic growth. I think it's daft to expect that tbh...

Globalisation is the underlying force in our economic situation - previously poor countries are getting wealthier and more politically powerful. I'm not sure what's wrong with that really. It's certainly better for them, no?

It's also beyond UK government to really mitigate against such a shift in the balance of global power.

Labour helped get us in this mess, Tories may be stopping it getting worse or maybe making it worse. Empirically it's impossible to tell really but I know the UK isn't like Spain, Greece or Portugal so we could certainly be in a much worse place than we are.

Seems to me best approach is like the bottom of a hard climb. Head down, positive attitude and dig in... Sitting at the bottom wishing it wasn't there or blaming the bike doesn't help a huge amount...

Never mind, they can all work in coffee shops or supermarkets...

Part time, of course. For minimum wage! For a company that doesn't pay any tax! And with that, you've summed up George's economic miracle

We are a small business. We invested heavily during the recession (it was a hugely frustrating fight to get finance). We raised our prices significantly to reflect the investment. Now we are full customer capacity. So things at the bottom seem better. The attitude of the banks was a joke during this time though.

Talking yesterday to a small business in the building sector. They say that they have never seen so many requests for quotes as they have had in the last 2 weeks. This is a company running for over 15 years.

Totally anecdotal southern based evidence 🙂

Talking yesterday to a small business in the building sector. They say that they have never seen so many requests for quotes as they have had in the last 2 weeks.

Does that mean all the Poles will be coming back? 😉

I'm sure right now, there's a whole factory load of people in Southampton that thought they could afford to pay their mortgages

indeed, as i said above, the ethos of borrowing what you can afford wont protect you from companies going bust etc, but its a good start surely?

Careful there brooess that's common sense you are talking there.... the locals don't like that around these parts

i think this says more about the economy than georges 1 pc

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19468697 ]The growing demand for food banks [/url]

OP - surely your would rather have this data that a further contraction in the economy? But this is a "preliminary estimate" of one quarter's output. The one thing that you can almost guarantee is that it will be revised at a later stage.

There is little sense in drawing too firm a conclusion from one data point, even when the news is slightly positive. Just as it is silly to knock the government excessively for past weak Q data, so it is silly to give too much/any credit for this.

We may be bottoming, we may not. A lot depends on RoW especially Europe where news remains grim (oh apart from giving the Greeks more wriggle room this week, quelle surprise). We still face a very long period of economic adjustment and one preliminary estimate will not change that.

Binners. The breakdown: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_284925.pdf. Construction still looks bleak from this.

rudebwoy - Member
the idea that uk govt has any control over capitalism is as fallacious as the control a dog has over his cock.

Where does one start with that.....? 😉

So let me get this straight, the fact that we were in a recession was the Tories fault, but coming out of the recession is nothing to do with them?

Ah, I get it, if it's bad news it's the fault of the tories, good news, that just happens.

Would the fact that our interest rates and national debt repayment rates are low because we had a believable plan for getting on top of the defecit have anything to do with our unemployment rates being lower than Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Fance and falling where others are growing. [url= http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=teilm020&tableSelection=1&plugin=1 ]Linky[/url]. No? Thought not.

Cheers for those THM

Construction still looks bleak from this.

George's 'March of the Makers' isn't looking to healthy either, is it?

the fact that we were in a recession was the Tories fault

gearfreak - Member
So let me get this straight, the fact that we were in a recession was the Tories fault, but coming out of the recession is nothing to do with them?

Ah, I get it, if it's bad news it's the fault of the tories, good news, that just happens.

Are you new to STW? 😉

Would the fact that our interest rates and national debt repayment rates are low because we had a believable plan for getting on top of the defecit have anything to do with our unemployment rates being lower than Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Fance and falling where others are growing. Linky. No? Thought not.

...erm, not quite that simple though is it? Ok, we had a semi-credible plan and GO has done an OK-ish job and a difficult balancing act with market sentiment, but let's not forget that low IR also reflect an extraordinary monetary policy regime (which BoE states is not really working this week) and the lack of growth. So let's not give the Tories too much credit either!!!

Oh and lets not forget the simple matter of fixed exchange rates that condemn the PIGS to lower wages and/or higher unemployment. Even Brown wasn't that stupid to his credit!!

my point was that uk govt is at the behest of global capital, it has no say in the matter, like a dog with his dick, he just reacts.....which is what they are doing, tinkering with the controls of a stationary vehicle

I agree that there is a limited amount the govt can do, we are at the behest of global capital. They do have more power than controling a stationary vehicle though. They can control whereabouts in the vehicle we are, so as to best exploit it winning the race, or avoid too much fallout if it crashes.

Remember this joker.....

Oh and lets not forget the simple matter of fixed exchange rates that condemn the PIGS to lower wages and/or higher unemployment.

The Germans need someone to lend money to, so they can then use it to buy German goods and services. When they can't afford to pay it back, they can impose a government and fiscal policy on them.

something like that anyway 🙂

Remember this joker.....

Remember these 2 on Black Wednesday?

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"my point was that uk govt is at the behest of global capital, it has no say in the matter"

As opposed to what exactly ?

How would a gov you'd like, do things differently?

They can put in place a more malleable and compliant leader too. That's how democracy works. They've just won a Nobel prize for it, and everyfink

Oh.... wait....hang on a minute....

Does anyone expect anything other than very low growth for the next few years?
As these things fluctuate, we're bound to be in another "recession" at some point.

[url= http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/23/us-dupont-results-idUSBRE89M0H320121023 ]Could be joining those Southampton peeps soon[/url]
Lack of PV panel sales on mainland Europe for one thing 🙄
Sept figs are just the school clothes being bought for kids returning to school then another spike for Xmas followed by the Jan sales spike followed by doom and gloom again in Feb/March whilst everyone starts saving/paying for holidays
Just my uneducated,ignorant, simplified take on it

Well never fear, what with the rate at which unemployment and inflation are falling everything will all be hunky-dory by next week!we'll all have five jobs and be earning LOADSAMONEY! And there'll be no need to worry about the deficit, the balance of payments, or affording social security, or pensions, or public spending... Or maybe not. They know what is going to happen, They only expect us to be dumb enough to believe Their spin...

If it sounds too good to be true then it probably is.

It took the whole of history to build up the first trillion pounds of debt. The following 8 years to reach the second. 97% of money is electronic. I blame IT. http://www.neweconomics.org/publications/where-does-money-come-from

That's part of the problem. That we've had much of the next thirty years' growth twenty years ago...

"I blame IT"

That would be great... all we'd have to do is turn it off and then..... back on again.

boom and bust is a cycle of capitalism

I beg to differ, boom and bust is a function of credit bubbles created by a fractional reserve banking system.

Right can everyone just stop and logo off for a minute, we're rebooting the economy.

I agree that there is a limited amount the govt can do, we are at the behest of global capital. They do have more power than controling a stationary vehicle though. They can control whereabouts in the vehicle we are, so as to best exploit it winning the race, or avoid too much fallout if it crashes.

ALmost, Government can control where they are in the event of a crash, the rest of us, just cannon fodder and padding to ensure they survive.

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[i]Is there a breakdown of figures? I suspect what this actually means is that technically, London is out of recession. And as we all know; the rest of us don't actually exist[/i]

The rest of who? 😕