It’s not once in a century, it’s 1 in 100 chance of a flood that size in one year.
Brand new housing estate in Harrogate flooded this morning. When it was a field it seemed to hold water better.
By heck we had some rain through last night, like being under a waterfall as it just overflowed the gutters.
It's now trying to snow...
nickc, that's tough, really tough.
Started getting texts through from the Environment Agency yesterday warning about imminent floods. My house is safe (at least 15 feet above the river) so spent the rest of the day looking smugly at the local Facebook group photos and videos of the water rising.
Woke up with a bit of a panic at 5am to remember that I took the train into work and that my car is (was?) parked somewhat closer to the river.
Really sorry to hear that Nick. Thats pretty depressing.
But I can fully understand it though. These supposed 'once in a lifetime' weather events do seem to be becoming an annual thing now.
Mrs Binners has got mates who are away skiing at the moment. Their house is presently under 3ft of water 🙁
My colleagues in Austria have been told to stay at home today due to the storm which the Germans have renamed Sabine.
It’s now trying to snow…
Succeeding here
Aged parents say it's snowing with them (Fife).
Windy in Germany.
Local trains in Munich not running.
Not really that windy, mind....
Oddly it's changed its name from Ciara to Sabine.
Went out for a run, came across a fella in a SUV who couldn't get it started 'I dunno why it's not starting?!' Er, mibbe the waves that are coming over your car, and have been for God knows how long while your wife walks the dog?.
Jebus.
.
That’s a hard blow to take Nick.I deliver to a store at Mytholmroyd & they’ve had the flood defence road works going for a couple of years,I think they’re nearly finished. I just hope they’ve worked for the people in that part of the valley.It seems a nice place apart from the flooding.
From the brief look i’ve had at the latest documents see here, the old bridge is due to be demolished this summer, once the new bridge is completed.
Looking at the plans, the new bridge has twice the opening, is higher, and located further upstream. the results of this allows more water to pass under the bridge, and they are planning on widening the river once the old bridge is demolished.
These flood defences will have been designed by professionals, and constructed planned in phases to ensure they don’t make it worse in the interim.
With regard to the 2015 boxing day floods, their website clearly states:
Will the new Flood Alleviation Scheme protect against a flood on the same scale as December 2015?
Unfortunately we can’t totally eliminate the risk of flooding. December 2015 was a 1 in 200 year event (the wettest on record, but also the wettest calendar month overall since records began in 1910).
The completed scheme for Mytholmroyd will substantially improve the level of protection of the village. The growing threat from more extreme weather events means we must always be as prepared and as resilient as possible.
Oddly it’s changed its name from Ciara to Sabine.
Thats because Ciara is the UK/Irl/NL name - Wikipedia
Snowing heavily in Leith now!
Lots of trees down across the line at work last night and this morning (thankfully I've got a few days off now). At least 7 fence panels to replace though TBH I'm surprised they've lasted this long.
Sorry to hear about your misfortune nickc, KBO.
No snow here, just squally showers and gusty winds.
December 2015 was a 1 in 200 year event
See, the whole programme fails from the moment that attitude is taken. It is utterly irrelevant how frequent weather events have been in the past, the climate has already changed, and will continue to do so. Flood defences need building assuming that what were once very unusual events will happen again, sooner not later.
Infrastructure Australia are reporting that 1:100 year events are now 1:10.
Sorry to hear that @nickc. Lots of others trying to pick up the pieces ‘again’, and seeming very down about it. Horrible time.
See, the whole programme fails from the moment that attitude is taken. It is utterly irrelevant how frequent weather events have been in the past, the climate has already changed, and will continue to do so. Flood defences need building assuming that what were once very unusual events will happen again, sooner not later.
A scheme can only be funded if it provides the standard of protection at the end of the economic appraisal period. Generally for FCERM funding this will be 100 years and will incorporate several epochs of climate change.
Event sizes are reviewed, 1in100 is not a static level, there is pressure to make the simulation characteristics continuous.
Lots of fun in London, I noticed our roofline looking a bit suspect around lunchtime Sunday, when I noticed water dripping on the ground floor I knew it must have deteriorated somewhat.
This was the view out of the velux
This is on a loft conversion a few months old, and now my suspicions that the lack of properly mortared ridge tiles was insufficient have been confirmed 🙁
Roofers came this afternoon and agreed that it was totally sub-standard. Have affected a temporary repair but a longer more robust solution required
Dead calm and peaceful here in Northern Italy, an absolutely gorgeous afternoon in fact.
A scheme can only be funded if it provides the standard of protection at the end of the economic appraisal period.
Not even aiming to offer protection against the event that occurred in 2015, because it was a ‘rare event’, was a failure of the programme, as was pointed out at the time by many of us here locally.
The time allowed to complete the work here in Mytholmroyd (hint, it’s still not complete) also speaks of this ‘rare event’ thinking.
Turboferret, that looks like a total bodge, it's not exactly difficult or expensive to use proper ridge tiles.
Flood defences need building assuming that what were once very unusual events will happen again, sooner not later.
A nettle to grasp really is... lots of towns were built to harness the power of rivers - either to power mills and machines or for the transport of goods. Factories don't need to be perched on the edges or rivers anymore and their workforce doesn't need to live in the shadow of the factory. When the towns were built the river was the major economic driver for the town - now rivers offer a little landscape and recreational value and an occasional disaster.
At what point do you decide to start moving towns rather than protecting them? It all seems a bit King Canute.
At what point do you decide to start moving towns rather than protecting them?
That’s all very well, but think how many places are being hit with increased severity and frequency of flooding. It’s not just mill towns in valleys. What’s needed will be very expensive… and there may well be an argument for removing some (many) properties… you’re still going to need flood defences in a lot of places… flood defences designed and built to cope with events well beyond what was historically expected.
@stumpyjon the issue apparently was the lack of ac actual ridge - going from sloped straight to flat, so nothing for the ridge tiles to actually straddle. I think the proper solution will be another row of tiles and then to drop down the other side onto the flat section. This will also give a method of sealing the rubber roof membrane properly, as currently it's just glued to the lead which doesn't look like it'll last very long, and in fact hasn't...
At what point do you decide to start moving towns rather than protecting them? It all seems a bit King Canute.
Knut sitting in front of the incoming tide and commanding it to go back was a demonstration of the lack of power kings had over things beyond human experience and influence - basically he may be king, n’all, but God was much more powerful.
Acts of God, and all that.
My heart goes out to anyone affected by the flooding, it's a dreadful thing to happen once, let alone repeatedly.
But I suspect if you go back 100 years those places flooded regularly, and will do for the next 100 years and more. We might be better spending the money on relocating people rather than throwing it at defences that will ultimately be futile and raising expectations to unreasonable levels
What is needed is to slow the runnoff from the hills into the rivers. Plant more trees, stop heather burning, introduce beavers. these things prevent or reduce flooding. " flood barriers" on rivers do not. All they do is move the problem elseswhere
All these things need to happen, to various degrees. It’s not about picking one silver billet.
Agreed with you kelvin, however we can focus on 'quick' engineering schemes easily, wheras a change in value of our farmland and wild land and a change in how they are managed takes a big shift in thinking, in priorities, in payments and a few decades for the trees and schemes to really get working....
But I suspect if you go back 100 years those places flooded regularly, and will do for the next 100 years and more
Correct. Here's a random example from a database of floods. An altlantic storm in 1916.
https://www.surgewatch.org/a-wartime-invasion-of-a-very-different-nature-back-in-blighty/
A century of January rainfall totals doesn't show any great trend.
What is needed is to slow the runnoff from the hills into the rivers. Plant more trees, stop heather burning, introduce beavers. these things prevent or reduce flooding. ” flood barriers” on rivers do not. All they do is move the problem elseswhere
True, but how many users on here bring this up whenever the subject of national trust membership or car parking charges is mentioned. Ok so there wasn't the explicit intention in this case to re-wild the whole farm, but it still caused a massive fuss simply by just making the land incrementally less viable as a farm.
Would you expect a different reaction if they'd said that not only were they buying the farm, but making the tennants, and the tennants of their other farms in the valley jobless and homeless to make way for trees?
A century of January rainfall totals doesn’t show any great trend.
What the hell does that have to do with storm events and flash flooding?
a few decades for the trees and schemes to really get working…
Matt… hazel, for example… grows a lot faster than our still not finished flood wall has been going up! Land use change… removing some properties… building flood defences… giving over more areas to deliberate flooding to avoid damage to property… removing anyone who acts as if climate change isn’t occurring, or isn’t relevant to planning, from any decision making process… all required… years ago, never mind immediately.
What the hell does that have to do with storm events and flash flooding?
That they aren,t caused by overall increasing rainfall?
As for flash floods - no 24hr rainfall records set since 1974.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-extremes#?tab=climateExtremes
My point being that land use changes and flood management have probably got more to do with increased floods than changing weather. If floods are increasing. .
no 24hr rainfall records set since 1974.
In any area? Or across the whole country?
Record for most rain in 24 hours any where in the UK was 2010:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/nov/17/borrowdale-rainfall-heaviest-24-hours
Locally, we haven’t had a great time of it, rain wise, just in case you haven’t seen the news:
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/huddersfield-hit-most-rainfall-ever-17717474
Not sure why I’m replying to you, to be honest. Climate change is thing. We need to act accordingly. You can just climb back under your rock.
You can just climb back under your rock.
Charming! Is that your attitude to anyone with different opinions on anything?
Nope. Very rare of me. Climate change deniers can just do one this week.
Charming! Is that your attitude to anyone with different opinions on anything?
Probably just his attitude to wilfully ignorant idiots. Three ‘one in a hundred year’ floods in 10 years. Go figure.
It’s not all to do with weather of course, but it only highlights the fact that with the increasing threat from more severe weather we should be mitigating it with better land management and development policies. Unfortunately the opposite is happening.
The damage done to understanding of flood risk by the universal adoption of the nomenclature *X -in 100 years may never be undone.
It has never been and never will be a representation of a single event in 100 years.
Even the BBC are still quoting it.
Historically Jan rain used to fall as sleet/snow on the fells and that would slowly melt into the catchment over days sometimes weeks. That happens less often now as our winters are warmer. So the same amount of precipitation in an upland catchmentin UK today compared with say 80years ago would likely mean faster river responses based solely on warmer temperatures irrespective of land use changes.
Interesting idea gwaelod.
Also over the last few years in North Yorkshire Farmers and land owners have been drainng land and cleaning ditches like no bodys business as they want the land as well drained as possible to work it as early as possible.
Although January rainfall trend upwards in recent years hasn’t been particularly marked..that’s not true for winter rainfall as a whole as diagram 27 here and the associated discussion shows..sorry..can’t embed
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.6213
Winter rainfall as a whole will be a factor in overall catchment wetting and preloading as a factor in flooding.
