Soo, plenty of naysayers last week were predicting that after the IPO, the price would fall and existing shareholders were just looking to dump stock & take advantage of retail buyers. Massive hype & overvaluation etc.
So far its up about 25%.
First few days mean nothing. Most big noise IPOs do well in that time span. I make no predictions about which way it'll go.
I make no predictions about which way it'll go.
Yes minimal stock release so far - where it gets interesting is six months or so down the line when existing shareholders can sell plus the changes made to the rules by various indexes so it has guaranteed buyers.
So agree with kelvin its rather unpredictable and heavily dependant on the way its been tied to AI stocks in general.
As with anything SpaceX a massive explosion will be along shortly!! 🤣
If you've bought - sell now at 25% profit before the next rocket explodes and people panic.
musk is a piece of shit and I hope all his rockets crash (with noone on board obvs) 👍
nothing helpful to add to the thread sorry
Hasn't tanked, however it's value much like tesla is completely divorced from the reality of any other stock. Closer to bitcoin than anything. SpaceX and twitter haven't made a profit yet their stock is worth many multiples of any turnover greater than almost any established company
Asset inflation isn’t just about profits though, is it? Does it need to ever make a profit, if its growing in a way people will keep seeing as positive? If they end up with loss making server farms floating in space… but they own all that nonsense… that could still have an insane value pegged to it?
How much is your home worth now compared to 50 years ago? How much profit has it “made” its various owners while they lived in it? Its value still went up. They got richer, yeah? Especially if they sold after holding onto to it long enough before doing so.
S so effectively you are saying space x is worth the value because people believe it is. Not because of the actual value it generates? Ok then why does this only seem to apply to that group of companies and bitcoin? Or maybe you would like to buy some tulips?
No that's not what I'm saying (although it's always true), I'd suggest it can spend its income and the investment it attracts on growing. It can increase in value without making a profit. Scale like this could allow them the control to just keep scaling up. And the crackpots behind the company want to scale beyond the scope and control of any country... even the USA isn't big enough for it. There could be years, if not decades, of the company increasing in scale and value (both real value and share value)... without turning a profit. The share price could also tank in 18 months... and probably will, before bouncing back most of the way.
Its all about Grok
one AI will win the AI war- and Im increasingly convinced that the AIs will end up at literal war with each other, manipulating their meat puppets with social media apps to fight for them
We can feed our children to them in the name of liberty.
Or maybe you would like to buy some tulips?
That is exactly, word for word what I was going to say...
As regards the valuation being 25% up..... That's no great surprise since there an insane amount of shares that the funds need to hoover up in order to stay on track.
Why will one AI win the war?
They are largely interchangeable.
It's not like Amazon or eBay where the winner takes all.
The entire musk "empire" is a circle jerk, much like the a.i. market.
Let them burn, or explode in musk's case.
Why will one AI win the war?
They are largely interchangeable.
It's not like Amazon or eBay where the winner takes all.
Because the AI services want to be the next Google or Microsoft. You don't search the web, you Google things. You use Windows* and Active Directory in your business. Shit, you Hoover your carpet.
You win this race, with Grok or ChatGPT or Claude and that is what people will use, that's what will, eventually, be the service that will make real money and make the owners even richer.
Sounds like the value is in the user-facing / busines front end then.
That can feed the data into whatever LLM is cheapest, maybe even a local opensource model.
From what i understand spaceX is focussing on the hardware anyway. I'm not sure how much sense an orbiting data centre makes sense though. they look like big heavy maintenance intensive things.
much as I detest Musk its not true to say SpaceX hasnt nade a profit. It has previously and would now if it wasnt in total acquisition mode. The money comes from Starlink subscriptions
Can't remember how long it has got until initial investors are allowed to sell... But an IPO with an initial grace period where investors can't sell is essentially a legalised Ponzi scheme... Other Billionaires have been hoovering up large quantities of shares, knowing the hype will increase the value fairly significantly, at which point the general public start to buy in...
Then of course, once they can sell, the Billionaires will dump the shares immediately, the share price will tank, and joe public will be left footing the bill... Elon won't care, because he now has the cash he needs to finance SpaceX for a while, and he still owns 95% of the shares himself...
Regarding the Ai wars... This is the most worrying part, because unlike Google/Yahoo and whoever else was battling it out to become the predominant search engine, Grok in particular is being coded in its owners image already, and we know his propensity to bend the truth, deny history, influence politics and rouse a rabble... Whatever the vehicle (SpaceX in this case), Musk is doing everything he can to give Grok the best possible chance of winning this war... He might not be a Bond villain in the traditional sense of stealing a nuclear weapon to manipulate markets... No, he's FAR more dangerous!
Corporates can and do change AI models like underwear as it’s relatively easy to abstract the business process from the reasoning.
Grok in particular is being coded in its owners image already, and we know his propensity to bend the truth, deny history, influence politics and rouse a rabble... Whatever the vehicle (SpaceX in this case), Musk is doing everything he can to give Grok the best possible chance of winning this war...
Fortunately, it's also absolute rubbish. Its losing out so badly that SpaceX / xAI are leasing some of their compute to the other AI companies
Is that really “losing”? Amazon sells “compute” to most other retailers. AWS is a win for them. GROK is as much a proof of idea as an end product. And a political tool. SpaceX is about owning the future’s infrastructure. No idea if they’ll achieve that, hope they don’t, but if we all end up invisibly using their space sited networks and servers without really noticing, that isn’t “losing” for them (and in my opinion is dangerous for us).
Amazon is a massive level up in terms of available compute, they have it to spare sorta. Theres also alot of financial chicanery going on with them.
Grok is one of the worst LLM's for performance and outside of politically motivated peeps its not used much. Especially not in the enterprisey agentic things where the money actually us.
But... SpaceX has just spent a tonne of that IPO cash buying Cursor.AI (all shares, no cash), something that a lot of the agile vibe broders use. You can bet money that Musk will force Grok as the chatbot/AI subsystem in that and use it to drive adoption of Grok in the development space.
Regarding the Ai wars..
Eliezer Yudkowsky who wrote If anyone builds it, everyone dies and a fan-fiction about Harry Potter (but that's for another thread) believes that the only rational defence against emergent AI is to be maximally violent at all times, AI will regard you as a threat to take seriously only if it perceives that you'll be a threat to it. This is why a border guard and 5 others have been murdered by a group often referred to as Zizians (although that's not what they call themselves). All of these people were at some point employed by tech firms at silicon valley.
People speak as if the AI war will be some future event. For some folks - often far closer to projects involving AI programming that I think we'd all be comfortable with, it's already happening and is their present, let alone future.
But... SpaceX has just spent a tonne of that IPO cash buying Cursor.AI (all shares, no cash), something that a lot of the agile vibe broders use. You can bet money that Musk will force Grok as the chatbot/AI subsystem in that and use it to drive adoption of Grok in the development space.
yeah $60B too lol. Again, Grok is so bad that forcing it to be the underlying model for Cursor would just see devs jump to one of the many other very good agentic coding options out there.
Theres alot about Musk that I find, to use his words: "concerning". Grok aint one of them.
My neighbour, and fellow cyclist more importantly, made 400 euro in one day.
My neighbour, and fellow cyclist more importantly, made 400 euro in one day.
Did they crystallise those gains?
Soo, plenty of naysayers last week were predicting that after the IPO, the price would fall and existing shareholders were just looking to dump stock & take advantage of retail buyers
This is still correct. Generally IPOs have lock-up periods: for retail investors, trading platforms such as Robinhood have restricted retail buyers into not selling their stock for 15 days. And the banks/ funds backing the IPO will have agreed not to cash out for (presumably) 2-4 weeks.
Don't worry, you'll see pretty clearly when the lockups end. Fundamentally, a company's share price is determined by its profitability and assets - and this ain't got much of either.
Soo, plenty of naysayers last week were predicting that after the IPO, the price would fall and existing shareholders were just looking to dump stock & take advantage of retail buyers. Massive hype & overvaluation etc.
So far its up about 25%.
OK... So are you buying in OP?
It's so obviously a "bigger fool" gamble. That and/or betting on the chance of Musk getting his snout even further in the govt trough. Fundamentally the valuation is mental, it cannot possibly generate an adequate return in any legitimate and reasonable manner.
Again, Grok is so bad that forcing it to be the underlying model for Cursor would just see devs jump to one of the many other very good agentic coding options out there.
We did a pilot of cursor vs claude. I did like some of the cursor stuff, particularly the vectorised codebase, but the main pro for it was "not restricted to one vendor for agents".
Still lost out now and its now a mix of claude plus copilot which lets us mix up models a bit.
In terms of forcing people to use it apparently the banks/consultancy firms involved in the IPO were required to take out enterprise licences for Grok.
In terms of forcing people to use it apparently the banks/consultancy firms involved in the IPO were required to take out enterprise licences for Grok.
The grift. I really just cannot believe that I am still shocked at the naked corruption and capitalism of these assholes
He has only allowed 4% of the company to be sold to us muggles. Then those restricted sales have been scaled up to infer a possibly meaningless value for the whole lot. It's just valuation tricks, and people are really only buying into the Musk name, rightly or wrongly: who can say until hindsight becomes available. Clever part is that this made up meme has now allowed him to buy a real company for $60bn. House of cards comes to mind. Interesting to watch in an odd way. Of course this is a bike forum, I have no idea how this IPO was really structured, and Musk is worth $1.4t times what I am worth. So unless he admits that it is a grift, none of us know what he is up to.
Soo, plenty of naysayers last week were predicting that after the IPO, the price would fall and existing shareholders were just looking to dump stock & take advantage of retail buyers
This is still correct. Generally IPOs have lock-up periods: for retail investors, trading platforms such as Robinhood have restricted retail buyers into not selling their stock for 15 days. And the banks/ funds backing the IPO will have agreed not to cash out for (presumably) 2-4 weeks.
Don't worry, you'll see pretty clearly when the lockups end. Fundamentally, a company's share price is determined by its profitability and assets - and this ain't got much of either.
The issue I see is that several large indexes have changed their rules to include SpaceX (despite it's tiny float), sometimes with multipliers (meaning they buy more than the float would usually dictate) and much earlier (as little as 5 days). This means a huge amount of people will be forced to buy a limited amount of shares, propping up the value.
It's a disgrace.
I voted with my feet and moved from a fund using one of these indexes to one using S&P500 who rejected such changes.
Expect the same grift to be repeated for Anthropic & others in the next few months.
I thought the idea of SpaceX was that it would become the default for all space use. It will have its data centres up there. It will have all the rockets. It will have Starlink. Everything goes through the one company. By having that monopoly, they can basically run the market for that whole industry.
This worked really well for Tesla when they built the whole supercharger network when nobody else had any way of charging their cars. If you wanted an electric car that could travel any distance, it had to be a Tesla because it's the only one you could find anywhere to charge. This turned Tesla into the most common electric car and made all other manufacturers change the way they were thinking.
Unfortunately, all manufacturers changed their thinking, and lots of charging ports appeared, and suddenly Tesla had no real USB other than Musk's face.
Building a monopoly can be massively profitable, but only until that monopoly gets broken.
So far its up about 25%.
Of course it is, It's a hype stock. It's fantastically overpriced at something close to 100x sales or something crazy like that*, why else would Space X be allocating 30% (of the IPO) to retail? Do you think they're just being nice, and letting the muggles make money? Or could it be that they'll have made their money, and they'll need someone to dump on. Think about why this is happening - AI is stupidly expensive and they're running out of cash, Google have just raised $80B, what does the risk/reward feel like to you at that price?
It's going to be the biggest rug-pull the world has ever seen. The race for your cash is on...
* so it's estimating that for a hundred years in a row, it's going to send 100% of it's revenue to you in dividends for you to even see a return. No staff costs, no R&D no taxes, nothing else. Does that feel like a deal?
Echoing what nickc says... For ANYBODY who hasn't yet seen The Wolf of Wall Street... This is your new homework for the week...
I thought the idea of SpaceX was that it would become the default for all space use
From what I have read almost all of their projected revenue is from AI bollocks. Its a bit odd as the one thing they are leading on seems to be a minor (relatively speaking) part of their offering.
Its all datacentres in space which have a few minor problems starting with why?
They still clocked 19 billion USD revenue in 2025... 10.3 from Starlink..
Its all datacentres in space which have a few minor problems starting with why?
'Free' power from the sun.
How do you even cool a data centre in space? No atmosphere to conduct away the heat (radiation won’t do the job adequately). It maker about as much sense as his tunnel train nonsense or midget submarine cave rescue ie it’s the ravings of a ketamine-addled lunatic.
when did people completely give up on using their critical faculties to analyse ideas, instead relying solely on the “clout” of the unfluencer who proposed them?
unfluencer was a typo but I’m keeping it
