So since june the daily express have been forecasting snow as per the last 10 years.
Now as we know long range forecasting is a bit hit and miss however a weather channel I follow keep going on about sudden stratospheric warming and how it's going to impact in early December with quite a force if the "perfect scenario" occurs. It would appear that this ties in with the latest forecast information from the express with snowmageddon starting on the 5th December. Do I need to start stockpiling bread?
weather forcasts along with football are things I try to ignore. so it is a no from me.
Im camping in Scotland. It will rain.
maybe.
snowmageddon starting on the 5th December
Oh, please please please please let it be true.
the daily express have been forecasting snow
Bugger 🙂
AccuWeather doesn't appear to be forecasting anything other than the usual damp and cool weather for December. I would like them to be wrong but I doubt it.
All the papers seem to randomly insert a 'snowmaggedon' story at least once a month.
Well, I haven't fitted my winter tyres yet so until I do there's always a chance of snowmageddon I suppose.
Once they're on it's mild and wet all the way.
Long range weather forecasts I follow show similar temps to this time last year.
daily express have been forecasting snow as per the last 10 years
Does anyone actually buy or indeed read that rag?
Does anyone actually buy or indeed read that rag?
I only see it as sometimes stupid people on my Friends list on Facebook post up a link to it. They are the same sort of stupid people that also post links to 'Free £50 Tesco Vouchers' and 'Enter our competition to win this returned campervan that we cannot legally sell'...
Liam Dutton is worth a follow on Twitter if you tweet. He loves tearing a hole in the Tabloids and their Weather 'Forecasting'.
To be frank, long range forecasts only really show trends, they're not nearly accurate enough for actual forecasts.
I learned in the long, wet cold summer of 2007 when it rained every day that any weather app/site data for more than about 5 days time is full of shit, they mix real data with seasonal averages to produce a result - ****ing AccuWeather told me every single day of that horrible summer than it was going to be warm and sunny in 5 days, because the balance of real data to seasonal data has shifted, it never came - well, until mid-Sept and it lasted about a week.
It'll be the usual wet and pissy, cold and damp miserable winter we always have. We may get a day or two of slushy snow when the world stops in the SE. They days of heavy snow and hard frosts are long gone down here on the Sarf Coast.
I fully appreciate the loathing directed towards the express, it popped on a news feed via google for me.
Netweather.tv has some informative forums - including a model output and SSW ones - it's a productive place to lurk. Model output can get a bit fractious when snow is imminent.
I've just fitted my "winters" and a mate of mine has just bought a 4x4...so no snow anytime soon.
I am tentatively planning a trip to Afan just after the election. That should guarantee heavy rain for several days.
I can almost feel the ice cold rain slicing through me up by the wind turbines.
There are some key difference between the difficulties in tropospheric weather forecasting at mid-latitudes past ~5 days (as in trying to forecast what are (mathematically) chaotic, stochastic processes past their prediction horizon) and modelling long-term stratospheric changes like SSW, which occur as a result of preceding tropospheric conditions. Certainly sea ice concentrations are really low and the polar vortex is slowing, so model prediction of a SSW event is reasonable with moderate probability and with the uncertainty of its timing. So it is not unreasonable to say there is (quite likely) to be a SSW event and that in turn will make Europe colder. It won't necessarily snow.
^^^ that's the kind of sciencey reply I was hoping for.
So we could expect at least a cold spell with possible blocking pattern if the ssw occurs? I await the imminent return of the express "beast from the east" headline....
" I await the imminent return of the express “beast from the east” headline…."
Ha exactly, I am sure the UK and US press will have a field day if it does happen... but in the near future it looks more like rain tbh.
I follow Midlands Storm Chasers on Facebook - her long range summer forecast was pretty accurate, her long range forecast for the winter is on track - heavy rain and flooding in the autumn, milder and wetter than normal with occasional wintry spells
I follow Midlands Storm Chasers on Facebook – her long range summer forecast was pretty accurate, her long range forecast for the winter is on track – heavy rain and flooding in the autumn, milder and wetter than normal with occasional wintry spells
Doesn't that work for about 95% of every autumn / winter in the UK?
I await the imminent return of the express “beast from the east” headline….
[url= https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1207616/Uk-snow-forecast-met-office-weather-warning-coldest-winter-December-forecast/ ]Here you go from cpl hours ago lol[/url]
This stuff is clickbait every. single. year.
When the short range forecasts start saying there's going to be a big dump of snow, I might start believing (read hoping) for a decent covering!
long range forecasting is a bit hit and miss
There are a series of indicators that have loose associations with various types of weather. That's it. So probabilities shift slightly, but it is in no way a forecast.
Doesn't stop the rags blurting headlines about it though.
This stuff is clickbait every. single. year.
This.
"Some areas of the UK will see -10*c"
(Yes, the Scottish glens)
"Swathes of the UK could see storms"
(Could. As the could every winter.)
"The terrible winter of 19xxx.."
(Horror by association, no actual connection at all)
"Random online weather forecaster says..."
(Some Yank trying to get paid more for a dull meteorological job)
Etc.
It's all BS.
Jeremy Corbyn's climate change denier nutcase brother Piers is forecasting snowmageddon for election day!
http://www.weatheraction.com/
#Election2019 UK will face *OMG* appalling weather during much of the campaign and especially on Dec12 ElectionDay - with extreme cold & snow and/or heavy rain and storms - especially in the North. The weather will change in dramatic switches and there will be some great fine spells too but the main message is BAD weather. It will be THE WeatherElection! WISE UP!