Scotland Indyref 2

That looks about right as far as I perceive it.

The likes of Captain McFreedom (copyright pending) and Team JambaMore are a borderline irrelevance in winning this. They're done as far as choices are made.

Some pretty robust arguments are going to have to be made to those wavering moderates.

Aye - we are back to the conundrums such as only some SNP voters support independence but some voters of other parties do as well. along with a significant % of the yes vote want out of the EU as well

Sturgeon is to a great extent tied by the circumstances. It has to be before we leave the EU or that avenue is not open. However its also an opportunity and to cast Westminster as anti democratic is a huge lever

to cast Westminster as anti democratic is a huge lever

Well lets be honest the referendum campaign starts today

I cant see who or how No are going to start their campaign

And apparently, NI could remain in the EU if they vote for re-unification as per East/West Germany.

That would be an interesting option for them, hopefully they can sort their other issues out first as they need to form an Executive rather soon or else it could all end up back at Westminster.

to cast Westminster as anti democratic is a huge lever

Nope. That's not going to sway bands 8, 9 and 10. Lots of those want to disband Holyrood anyway.

I agree with this. As tempting as it is all that does is reinforce the furthest apart bands on either side and alienates those in the middle. They really need to focus in on what is holding back those from bands 6 and 7 and even 8 if possible. These are people with some sort of attachment to the Union, attacking it will not convince enough of them who are probably doing alright out of it. Need to really hone in on the positive case for iScotland whilst simultaneously backing away from any sorts of attacks.

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This one is interesting to me, quite a bit of a difference here yet not much info available on reasons why. Is this because woman live longer than men and the over 65 vote is majority No or are there other reasons that need to be addressed. There are a lot of votes to be won here.

My guess is its caution V adventurism? women tend to be more cautious?

Does anyone much really want to disband holyrood? Even died in the wool tories must know that holyrood is their only way back into scottish politics.

I don't think any of the recent polling focussed on ethnic origin. The Green amendment to allow EU nationals to vote could play a small role in helping to swing support for a Yes vote.

But all this is putting the cart before the horse. I'm still not certain we're going to get a referendum in the next 4 years.

[quote=tjagain ]Does anyone much really want to disband holyrood? Even died in the wool tories must know that holyrood is their only way back into scottish politics.
Yes. "died in the wool tories" don't give a stuff about devolution. Why should they, they've a guaranteed Tory govt at Westminster for the forseeable future (be that blue or pink Tory).

I agree a positive case needs to be made and staying in the EU is a part of that.

BIg question is going to be the currency / financial issues. without a better answer they are toast

Not sure I agree on that scotroutes - Holyrood has thrown tories in Scotland a lifeline nd they know it. they would prefer it as a talking shop tho I am sure rather than having real powers

I'm still not certain we're going to get a referendum in the next 4 years.

Nor am I, but it's going to be interesting watching it unfold over the coming months.

I seen a poll from not that long ago that brought up abolishing Holyrood in event of another No vote. There were a surprising number in favour of this, more than I would have ever thought but not nearly enough to be troubling. I can't find it again though.

Not sure I agree on that scotroutes - Holyrood has thrown tories in Scotland a lifeline nd they know it. they would prefer it as a talking shop tho I am sure rather than having real powers

Odd view seeing as it's the SNP who haven't passed a new law for a year

Does anyone much really want to disband holyrood?

Yes absolutely. We clearly move in different circles, although to be fair I suspect you'd have a seizure if you engaged with some of the inherited wealth uber scot Tories I'm thinking of. Christ knows what would happen to Junkyard, spontaneous nuclear combustion would be my guess.

I agree a positive case needs to be made and staying in the EU is a part of that.

I'm actually going to disagree with this a little bit, and this line of thinking reminds me of what failed to win over some peers last time round. It's needs win the credibility argument more so than the positive, although clearly both matter. The credibility bit is rather tricky as you may already believe that's fully accomplished in many cases where those we need to sway think we've failed.

Another tricky element (again just among peers) is the sense of Yes claiming the moral high ground. Now whatever you think about which side has the actual moral high ground some reacted badly to this perceived "Team Yes are the good guys, you lot are Unionist slaves" this pushed some away from voting yes. I've absolutely no idea how widespread this factor is, but it certainly lost a few votes in indyref1. A bit like calling people chav scum isn't an effective way if making friends.

This thread creates an image of a small gathering of drinkers in a flat roofed Glaswegian bar having reality slowly dawn on them!

Oh...and its '[u]dyed [/u]in the wool' not died and [u]home[/u] in on the positive...not hone! 😉

Rockape63
This thread creates an image of a small gathering of drinkers in a flat roofed Glaswegian bar [i][b]with union jacks flying outside & a sign on the door which reads no dogs no blacks no Irish[/b][/i] having reality slowly dawn on them!

Fixed that for you - pub should be busier now 😉

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Rockape63 earlier.

That man up there ^^^^^ is the only man with less credibility than David Mundell

Really? I didn't think Rockape had as high a profile as Mundell.

David "leaving the EU would be a disaster for Scotland" / "brexit has amazing possibilities for Scotland" Mundell 😆

I agree with this. As tempting as it is all that does is reinforce the furthest apart bands on either side and alienates those in the middle. They really need to focus in on what is holding back those from bands 6 and 7 and even 8 if possible. [b]These are people with some sort of attachment to the Union[/b], attacking it will not convince enough of them who are probably doing alright out of it. Need to really hone in on the positive case for iScotland whilst simultaneously backing away from any sorts of attacks.

It seems to me that the referendum is not about voting to be in or out of [b]a[/b] Union but which Union...

mundell is a muppet

stevextc
It seems to me that the referendum is not about voting to be in or out of a Union but which Union...

It's more about wanting control of your own affairs because you have little in common, on a political level at the very least, with the current one.

Much akin to the entire "Brexit" argument in fact (except the bit about sending all them brahn folk back coz they steelin our jobs mate) - England & Wales reckon they'd be much better out of the European Union, Scotland reckons it'd be better off out of the British Union.

Scotland reckons it'd be better off out of the British Union.

FAKE NEWS alert!!

Since it looks as if we are heading towards another referendum, so recently after the last and I guess if there would not be a third referendum if 'yes' win this time - should they not require far more than 50%? Say 80% or 90%.

And another question: how can the Scottish government spend so much time debating/working for this?, surely they have 'actual work' to do?

If West Min[b]i[/b]ster refuses the Scots the referendum there is nothing the Scots can do about it regardless of how loud they shout, really. Absolutely nothing they can do about it. 😛

The reason is simple Scots have not got a good excuse to be independent.

This is because there have not been any mass probed or mass abused of the Scots since Edward Longshanks and the Hammer of the Scots.

Therefore, apart from bruised pride there really is nothing to shout about ...

Ya, that thing about joining EU bureaucratic system thingy ... ya that's just silly and embarrassing. We all know it. People are just being polite to let you (SNP) shout about joining the EU bureaucratic system. 😆

Since it looks as if we are heading towards another referendum, so recently after the last and I guess if there would not be a third referendum if 'yes' win this time - should they not require far more than 50%? Say 80% or 90%.

No. That would be silly.

And another question: how can the Scottish government spend so much time debating/working for this?, surely they have 'actual work' to do?

How much Government time has been spent this session on debating this?

chewkw - Member

You sound like one of those novelty toys where you press a button and it spouts out a load of gibberish.

should they not require far more than 50%? Say 80% or 90%

Almost doesn't matter what it should be. The political precedent has been set!

I would prefer a resounding yes to be independent. so would the SNP I am sure but if 52% can take us out of the EU then the same applies here.

It only appears that the SNP / scottish government spend all their time on this because thats all that is reported in the unionist press. the reality is somewhat different as anyone who follows scottish politics would know.

rene59 - Member
You sound like one of those novelty toys where you press a button and it spouts out a load of gibberish.

You can shout about democracy etc but the fact is that the entire UK has about 63.1 million population which makes Scotland a mere 5.3 million just a county.

You need to have a good excuse to gain independence but by citing EU bureaucratic system is simply silly. 🙄

edit: Oh ya ... Scotland can have their independence once the EU bureaucratic system is smashed to pieces.

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chewkw - Member
If West Minister refuses the Scots the referendum there is nothing the Scots can do about it regardless of how loud they shout, really. Absolutely nothing they can do about it....

Fortunately for you I have just completed a 3 week correspondence course in DIY neurosurgery and so I have been able to diagnose your derangement problem.

Get an effing big Black and Decker with at least a ?" bit, head to the toilet, open the lid. Now carefully position your head over the bowl and drill 3 or 4 holes in your skull.

Once the shit that passes for your brain has drained out, you'll feel so much better.

Even if you don't, most Scots on here will. 🙂

epicyclo - Member
Look mate, I know you have serious mental problems, but your history is skewed too.

Again I ask you this question what if West Minister refuses Scotland another referendum what can you do about it?

I have no problem with Scotland wanting an independence but you really need to provide honest reasons.

That excuse about joining EU bureaucratic system is so lame you deserve Edward Longshanks rising from his grave to give you a good hammering again and again until sense gets into you.

If it is the blood feud from the past with your English siblings then just say so as nobody is going to blame you for that, be honest and stop those silly talks about joining EU bureaucratic silly system.

You have a better chance of gaining independence by blaming the hammering of Edward Longshanks then the excuse of joining silly EU bureaucratic system.

🙄

chewkw - Member
Again I ask you this question what if West Minister refuses Scotland another referendum what can you do about it?

We live in a parliamentary democracy. How can the UK call itself democratic if it ignores it's parliaments?

With enough popular support Scotland can, with considerable effort, tell Westminster to go **** itself and dissolve the union regardless.

I'm not currently seeing that level of support but it's certainly possible.

Not really a helpful point of view tbh. UDI is cloud cuckoo land.

seosamh77 - Member
Not really the question that needs answering. The question is can westminster morally ignore the democratic will of the people of scotland?

Yes, West Minister can morally ignore the will of the people if the timing is wrong and will hurt the UK.

The door on referendum may be shut for the moment but it will not be shut permanently.

Remember this is not the time.

We live in a parliamentary democracy. How can the UK call itself democratic if it ignores it's parliaments?

The entire UK has about 63.1 million population and there is only one British Govt not two.

Like I said all the "logic" about democracy by joining EU bureaucratic silly system is simply lame.

Remember UK is joined at the hip ... all siblings ...

Fairly extreme yes, I'd have to imagine more or less unanimous support and a long campaign of mass protests.

Its not really a viewpoint of mine to be clear.

piemonster - Member

Fairly extreme yes, I'd have to imagine more or less unanimous support and a long campaign of mass protests.

Its not really a viewpoint of mine to be clear.

What message are you (Scots) going to have on your placard if there is a mass protest?

Imagine this message on your placard during the protest "We want EU bureaucratic system" or "We want EU" etc.

You will not only look silly but the entire EU continent will laugh at the sibling rivalry making a fool of him/herself.

Imagine this message on your placard during the protest "We want EU bureaucratic system" or "We want EU" etc.

how about "We wont be part of your mindless Brexshit cult"

What message are you (Scots) going to have on your placard if there is a mass protest?

Don't ask me, I'm an effete arsehole*

* insert** appropriate smiley emoticon

**fnarr

kimbers - Member

Imagine this message on your placard during the protest "We want EU bureaucratic system" or "We want EU" etc.

how about "We wont be part of your mindless Brexshit cult"

Like I said you (Scotland) have a better chance of gaining independence with your head held high by blaming Edward Longshanks than the silly excuses of joining silly EU bureaucratic system or Brexit. The latter two excuses only make you look like a fool.

Don't misinterpret a catalyst to be the cause

piemonster - Member
Don't misinterpret a catalyst to be the cause

chewkw - Member
The door on referendum may be shut for the moment but it will not be shut permanently.

Remember this is not the time.