Scotland Indyref 2

epicyclo - Member

As the proclaimed resident ultraScotNat

I was probably a little harsh on ye tbh, but i hope you can see my motives are well intended though! 😆

Oldnpastit Re the patriotic war. May I suggest re-invading Gibraltar for several reasons
1 There's a general westward movement of our recent wars, from Afghanistan, via Iraq to Libya. So it would fit nicely in line on the map.
2 It's not very big and might not fight much.
3 The name sounds foreign.
4 Them big monkeys are bastids
5 Mr Rahoy won't like it.

Bank of England NAV is £4 billion, Scottish share would be between £320 m and £360 m, which is peanuts. There is a misconception that banks have loads of money, especially Central ones. It is much more accurate, not perfect, to say they don't have any money, just access to it. That is how banking works.

Likewise Nation states can always walk away from their debts, as it is impossible to enforce them, therefore its your conduct that is important not your prospects.

All the Nationalists have to do is win one. The together people can win 999, and it still doesn't settle it. All the nats have to do is win the thousandth.

True in pure mathematical sense, but reality is people wouldn't put up for it and the nats would be voted out. Just looking at Facebook etc. would suggest there is already plenty of resentment with regards having a 2nd referendum so soon, a third or greater would be out of the question. So if there is a 2nd referendum then whatever the result it will stand for a long, long time.

The UK is very experienced at the separation of former colonies, possessions, dominions, and parts of itself. Eg, Ireland.

Scotland is not a colony - it is part of the union. But it is true we suppress the Scots, we make a few of them Prime Minister.

NS just playing political games . I doubt she genuinely wants a referendum .

Just putting more pressure on TM .

I think May gave Sturgeon the response she wanted today.

She's now able to cry 'westminster is ignoring the will of Scotland'

And so the referendum campaign begins....

Watching question time, principle of a 2nd ref is pretty much set in stone, even in the english psyche...

1-0 sturgeon..

[quote=tjagain ]Aracer - we will have a central bank - either the bank of england or we will have 9% of the value of the bank of england and its reserves to set one up.

Er, hang on. You're proposing to walk away from the debt [b]and[/b] to get 9% of the BoE value?

As I wrote before, if you walk away from the debt you don't have a central bank...

aracer - Member
you don't have a central bank...

Amazing how all these central banks exist if it's impossible to set one up..

One or the other Aracer we either get a fair share of ALL the assets or we walk away with nothing and no debt

Mefty - its legally not an independent scotlands debt. This was all gone into last time.

How much is the bank of england worth? Not just the reserves but all the money in circulat5ion plus whatever the "brand" is worth? So exactly the same amount of money per head is enough reserves for the UK but its not enough for an indepoendent scotland?

Money in circulation is a liability not an asset.

Mefty - its legally not an independent scotlands debt. This was all gone into last time.

Doesn't matter - if the markets believe you will not take your fair share of debt they will have zero trust. No trust = no money.

So exactly the same amount of money per head is enough reserves for the UK but its not enough for an indepoendent scotland?

Because the BofE has an established record which creates trust, that enables it to borrow significant amounts. Lending is about trust.

Mefty - it was all gone into last time and its clear scotland legally does not have to take any of the debt - and it not being scotlands debt would not affect its credit rating.

This amused me
“Now is not the time for a second independence referendum,” said Theresa May,.............“Then when is the right time?” enquired Peston reasonably.

“Now is not the time.”

Peston tried again. “Can we be clear about when you do think is the right time?”

“Now is not the time.” A virus had reinfected the Maybot and she was stuck on repeat.

“Yes, I get that, but...

“Now is not the time,” said the prime minister, unaware she was turning her bad week into a worse one.

“So what you’re saying is...”

“Now is not the time.”

Mefty - it was all gone into last time and its clear scotland legally does not have to take any of the debt - and it not being scotlands debt would not affect its credit rating.

You may have persuaded yourself of that - but the fact you don't know that Notes in Circulation are a liability rather illustrates your inability to understand basic financial issues.

Rather than us argue about how any divvy up of the debts etc is done, shall we look at the precedent to a part of the UK leaving.

What happened when Ireland left?

It's likely to be used as a guide.

kimbers - Member
I think May gave Sturgeon the response she wanted today.
She's now able to cry 'westminster is ignoring the will of Scotland'
And so the referendum campaign begins....

You under estimate Sturgeon's sense of timing. Don't forget the council elections are coming up in just a few weeks.

The best broom to sweep out Labour from its last stronghold (local councils) is a wee bit of outrage.

Also it may very well have put a spanner in Brexit negotiations.

The UK is going to find it very hard to trade away Scotland's fishing and faming rights if the EU sees that they are in dispute.

That plus, of course, the long game of ScotRef.

I have to agree with Captain Freeeeedooooom 😆 above that it will help Sturgeon and the SNP jetwash the last dregs of Labour down the drain. Interesting; I wonder if May has underestimated Sturgeon a wee bit? There is maybe a wee bit of project "too stupid" has gone on when looking at how to try and play NS.
The reality is surely dawning,even for the most vocal haters of the SNP on here, that the Union is on the way out? It is unlikely to be this time round; but it is going. I am an Indy supporting non-SNP voter who has little confidence in the SNP's chances of winning the ref announced by NS.I believe with absolute certainty the Union is doomed and with approx 40 years left expect to watch it happen.

Rather than us argue about how any divvy up of the debts etc is done, shall we look at the precedent to a part of the UK leaving.

What happened when Ireland left?

It's likely to be used as a guide.

I'd prefer for a transition with less shooting involved if I'm honest

Captain Freeeeedooooom

😀

What happened when Ireland left?
It's likely to be used as a guide.

I dont think they will be trying that again and I dont think the "sectarian" hatred in scotland is strong enough to deliver that either.

Essentially the Union will have to respect the vote they have no other credible option other than civil war and that is just not going to happen

I don't think May, Westminster politicians and a lot of folk from south of the border actually understand what is happening in Scotland and how their pronouncements sound from up here.

We are all laughing at the falseness of May in that she makes statements about leaving the EU and scottish independence that are opposing in their logic

Such as ( to paraphrase) Sturgeon has no democratic mandate for an independence referendum but May has the mandate for the hardest of hard exits from the EU

Or that its not the right time for a referendum because it would be a leap in the dark - however leaving the EU is something we have all signed up for and must shut up about

In attempting to placate the far right she has simply forgotten or is unable to recognise that these pronouncements do not go down well up here.

Every statement she makes on Scotland pushes more and more people into the yes camp and she seems incapable of understanding this

she has taken two huge gambles over Eu and Scotland and both are very likely to backfire badly

aye may argument that the scottish cannot vote when they dont know what they will be voting for after demanding we respect a referendum where folk voted for something that we still dont know what it was they voted for [ and we know they voted for all different flavours of it and for all sorts of different reasons] is is ludicrous

How she expects the country to unite behind a isolationist racist leap in the dark is lost on me
Its an act of stupidity as the ensuing decade will show.

Tj - spot on.

May is doing a grand job for the SNP...I am not too upset about that!

Amazing how all these central banks exist if it's impossible to set one up..

Of course, we've been saying Scotland needs to set one up. It's only the SNP who think it's not necessary.

May has played a blinder, she is aware that;

Scotland just had a once in a lifetime Referendum and voted No
Scots don't want another vote (60/40 against)
SNP are well aware they would not win another vote now - so May is just nudging them a bit further out into the future
Brexit deal "wait and see" is a powerful argument and paints SNP into a corner it is almost impossible to escape from
There is no timing which would allow SNP to keep an iS inside the EU / EEA before UK is out. So that argument from SNP is worthless.

Of course the pro Indy Scots are miffed as the do-over looks increasingly like 2023 if at all. That is what is is. They where always going to be miffed.

Sooner or later the SNP will have to face their own record in power, currently they have managed to turn the debate back 100% to Independence which is always a convenient smoke screen.

TJ et al it really doesn't matter if you think May's statement pushes people into Yes, there is an equally strong argument backed up by on the ground reality that the Scots don't want another Referendum. May is responding to the 60%. Whether these people you believe are pushed into the Yes camp are still there by 2023 we will have to wait and see

kennyp

As you admit yourself, the electorate is not in favour of another referendum. Admittedly it is very close, but in a situation like this the onus is on the side demanding change to prove that an appetite for change exists. Otherwise we continue with the status quo. Show me proof that this appetite exists and I will join in calls for a second referendum.

Northwind

kennyp - Member
As you admit yourself, the electorate is not in favour of another referendum.
Was the electorate in favour of the last referendum? It came about because 36% of 66% of people voted for a party that promised it, but what proportion actually wanted it?

Sorry - 9 week old baby at home who remands I only get to play on t'internet at work 😀

But yeah, i'd say at this point it's closer than prior to the previous referendum, as Northwind says. I think a lot of folk (everywhere, not just here) display a frightening amount of political ignorance & are happy to rumble on with the status quo providing they can sit down at night with a nice cup of tea and watch Eastenders without some rampaging foreign hordes bashing down the door to steal the children. Maybe political ignorance is a bit strong - maybe call it political malaise, but as seen in the last referendum election, when people are faced with the reality of an actual vote - as opposed to being asked to make a decision on whether or not they would like to possibly have a vote, the end result can be quite different.

I think this bloke gets it
[img] [/img]

Scots don't want another vote (60/40 against

Ahhh so now you do believe the pollsters , when it suits your agenda 😉

May has played a blinder from the perspective of the little Englander, not so great when viewed from Scotland, they meeting the ones that get to vote.

If the Scottish 1st Minister entire career is based on independence then she knows very well her career is practically over.

PM May is right in not allowing for the referendum so the next move is 1st Minister which is predictable and she will probably come up with so many reasons that a referendum should be held etc.

You see 1st Minister will try everything to get the referendum but what she does not realise is that it is not West Minister (I thought I heard someone pronounced it as "West Minister") that will deal a blow to her career but the real people she thinks will back her.

Hence, her career is dead from the start go when she invoked the spirit of Scottish hero Mel Gibson ... Freeddoommmm! 😆

Jamba. 4 weeks ago indy ref looked 30 years away. Now it looks at most 4 years away. How you spin that as a win for may is mind boggling acrobatics. I know the British press is trying their best to, as evidenced by your regurgitation of their narrative. But come on. Who ye kidding here? 😆

@kimbers fair play but nothing much else to go on, hence SNP continually claiming to speak for the "Scottish people"

4 weeks ago indy ref looked 30 years away.

Really SNP put another into their election manifesto. Plus the dream will never die (can't bear to see Salmond's face so won't post the book cover again)

60% of scots don't want another referendum NOW not they don't want one. when 50% of the country will vote yes then its an obvious nonsense to state they don't want one!

SNP continually claiming to speak for the "Scottish people"

Mays mandate to claim to speak for the people is far less credible [ and in terms of scotland ludicrous] than the SNP's who have voting % that rUK parties can only dream of.

they have more of a mandate than the tories did for the EU - I assume you can count their MP'S and their % of the vote and compare and contrast, reflect and reach a fact based conclusion

What happened when Ireland left?

They had a vicious civil war.

jambalaya

can't bear to see Salmond's face

Aww, you've upset him now

[img] [/img]

[i]TJ et al it really doesn't matter if you think May's statement pushes people into Yes, there is an equally strong argument backed up by on the ground reality that the Scots don't want another Referendum. May is responding to the 60%. Whether these people you believe are pushed into the Yes camp are still there by 2023 we will have to wait and see [/I]

Jamba, as I've reminded you, you don't live in Scotland but TJ, myself and many others do. Please stop telling us what we think based upon what you're reading in the English press.

Are you aware that newspapers often print totally different accounts of the same events in their English and Scottish editions?

like many on the RW he only reads the news services that deliver the news he wants to hear its a grand exercise in cherry picking to confirm his bias- see also climate change deniers

And nationalists.

True but Jamby is also a nationalist as well albeit for the UK [ up yours delores he says from Paris] rather than Scotland

True

"And nationalists."

+1

"So.... it's not really an argument to be making then, is it?"

I don't think sound logic is always part of the Nationalist toolkit.

So.... it's not really an argument to be making then, is it? If both sides are biased, there's no sense in one side calling out the other's bias.

Yes there are extremists on both sides who cherry pick their opinions - and dont actually apply a principle other than what best supports me now- just as there are measured and balanced views from both sides on this debate

I also dont think there is a Breitbart equivalent or Fox news /alt news site for the left and they[ we if you like] tend to not do this.

Genuinely what is your point?

These debates end up pretty tribal pretty quickly.

IMHO the economic argument - though its much less clear cut with brexit- is to stay in the union they control over your own destiny is to leave
My "nationalism" extends to the point that I would vote for almost anythign that prevents the tories ruling over me and its hypocritical of RW folk who dislike the influence of the EU - which is far less than rUK over scotland- to lecture the scottish on nationalism, Its basically hypocritical they are doing what you just did.

I also think its interesting how folks support one union and not the other - a few exceptions like THM who supports both.

There is no conclusive poll that has established whether there is a desire for a referendum.

Now that we know the actual dates the following specific options should be given:

When do you think the next referendum should be called?
a) As soon as possible
b) After negotiations are concluded (October 2018) but before the UK leaves the EU (March 2019)
c) Sometime after the UK leaves the EU
d) Never

Until this question gets answered we have no idea what people want. Anyone who says they do is just spinning it.

I don't think May, Westminster politicians and a lot of folk from south of the border actually understand what is happening in Scotland and how their pronouncements sound from up here.

Tin foil hat on\
Were assuming the current Government hasn't decided to draw the union to a close but needs a politically acceptable (to the electorate) way of getting there.
Tin foil hat off/

Id like to think Im quite neutral on this

I have a scottish mum and an english dad and grew up in england, with summer hols spent by many a (rainy/ midge infested) loch

I wouldnt want Scotland to leave the UK, on a selfish note, I cant be arsed with any extra hassles when I go up there for mtbing or holidays

It would also be a sad day for England and Scotland as well as being economically damaging to both.

Having spoken quite a bit with my scottish cousins 2 of the 4 were Yes, since brexit all 4 are now Yes (yeah small sample size), Im certain that they will leave though, its just a matter of when.

Im resigned to to it

It does serve as a warning to other countries considering quitting the EU that it would be divisive and damaging.