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As a former government Rent Officer, I can see some form of rent control being reintroduced.
It'll just mean landlords selling up en masse and no landlords will buy the properties as there will be no returns to be had. Something has to be done but the way the market has skewed over the last decade means that it will be very painful whatever happens.
electoral commission is independent
Riiightt, they are all appointed by the government of the day. I suspect it's full of independent thinkers like Samir Shah at the BBC!
Thinking about the homelessness crisis and the conservative spear head to further demonise it, it seems it's actually cheaper as a society to make provisions, I mean even if you hate homeless people, think of the money society will save, if we as a society try to help struggling people rather than kick them to death...
I recently stumbled upon this...
https://scoop.me/housing-first-finland-homelessness/
It’ll just mean landlords selling up en masse and no landlords will buy the properties as there will be no returns to be had.
Not necessarily. When we had proper rent controls back in the 80s there was no shortage of property to rent and its not had much of an effect in Scotland where there has basically been a rent freeze and no no fault evictions for 3 years now IIRC. Yes its not a 100% freeze but its still there
If it does lead to landlords selling up then that will create downward price pressure in the market
~The UK housing market is totally dysfunctional and acts to transfer wealth from poor to rich
Pollsters know about this though, just as you do, and they try to account for it.
Yep, it is still not precise though is it. It is pretty much just making a load of educated guesses. Anyway, I would put a lot of money of betting that Starmer will not have the number of seats they are calculating.
Although now Sunak is teaming up with Neo Fascists (not Braverman this time) he really is going crazy on the anti immigration BS. And looks like Farage is now back on an anti immigration front to push him along. Hopefully they have misjudged that and it will heavily backfire as post from Ernie above suggests but let's see as anti immigration is a populist favourite that can work well.
A thoroughly depressing article in the Guardian today about section 21 ‘no fault’ evictions. A 40% increase in the last 12 months, so homelessness is going through the roof.
This is a major contribution to all those councils who are suddenly finding themselves with huge holes in their budget.
When the ban on no-fault evictions was in place, homelessness presentations to the local councils dropped dramatically (plus this was during Covid) but now there's a sudden purge as landlords can evict again so there's a tsunami of homelessness. The evictions have been held back, held back and now the dam wall has been taken down and all of them are happening at the same time.
It's wrecked most councils' social care budgets.
Thinking about the homelessness crisis and the conservative spear head to further demonise it, it seems it’s actually cheaper as a society to make provisions
Milton Keynes did some great work in dramatically reducing homelessness and rough sleeping within the city by putting together a full inter-agency response centre with people actually based there, a sort of one-stop shop for homelessness. Beds, access to healthcare, food, advice about benefits... It worked wonders. I'm sure the press think it's all woke and why should we help these scroungers and what about my taxes but it was a very successful scheme.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67370571
Asked if the Tories would do better in the election if the PM manages to start sending migrants to Rwanda, the polling guru said: “The short answer is no. Yes, some core voters are upset (about immigration).
I don't think he's trying to win any more votes as such with this - it's preventing even more votes disappearing off to the truly bigoted parties and pandering to the hard right nutters in his own party to try to keep that vaguely together.
I would put a lot of money of betting that Starmer will not have the number of seats they are calculating.
Me too. And my fellow voters scare me, Even from this unassailable position. We've done some monumentally stupid stuff in recent elections, please god don't let us do it again.
Yep, it is still not precise though is it.
It surprisingly accurate though with a typical margin of error of 1-3%. And according to the article in the Independent:
Sir John, who is renowned for his near 100 per cent accurate predictions on polling day.
The issue is that polls shift, often dramatically, as election day approaches, and people tend to only remember what the opinion polls were saying before the shift.
The problem for Rishi Sunak is that as election day gets ever closer there should be at least a very slight movement in his favour and there isn't, in fact if anything it is going the opposite way.
That wouldn't be so serious if the Labour lead was not so huge but with each passing day it is becoming obvious that what he needs to achieve is simply too great, even if he rallies support at the last minute.
I reckon that Rishi Sunak has less chance of surviving than a Palestinian waving a white flag.
it’s preventing even more votes disappearing off to the truly bigoted
He is doing the opposite though isn't he? By making the stop the boats his number one issue he is playing straight into their hands.
One of the reasons some people believe that stopping the boats is such an important issue is because they keep hearing on the telly and reading in the newspapers that the government and prime minister are saying that it is an incredibly important issue which deserves emergency legislation.
If people are being seduced by an appeal to their bigotry they might as well vote for a proper full-on bigot/racist party, eg Reform UK. That is precisely what is happening in other European countries.
surviving than a Palestinian waving a white flag.
Would have been better if you'd remembered that they were Israeli hostages waving the flag.
Would have been better if you’d remembered that they were Israeli hostages waving the flag.
I think you might have missed my point.
IE, what are the chances for a Palestinian waving a white flag?
Surviving to the election, or surviving electoral wipeout at an election?
As I said, the spectacular ability of the populace to shoot ourselves in the foot scares me but would another change make any difference now, or just cement the position that they couldn't run a bath right now, let alone a country.
What would the moderate / one nation tories do if there was another change and one of the loonies was voted in. Do they have the same power in reverse, to defect to LD or hold the party to HoC and 1922 voting ransom like the RW can now? Are they equally mad, but just don't need to show it yet.
I didn't really follow politics until the last 15 years, but when academics and teachers look back on this period in 50 years time, what will they make of it?
They will probably note that a major economic crisis like 2008 almost always results in a flight to the extremes.
He is doing the opposite though isn’t he? By making the stop the boats his number one issue he is playing straight into their hands.
I see your point, but I see it differently. Taking aside the pandering to the internal issues, if he drops and deprioritises it as an issue then the Reform UK can absolutely step in and say they're the only ones that are taking immigration seriously, and the racist voter defects to them. For now he can retain them, and he needs every vote he can get looking at those polls.
https://twitter.com/josiahmortimer/status/1736331679818473898?t=UaztiM0nIk3QJ3MZ277Z3w&s=19
Another tiny problem for the Rwanda policy....
if he drops and deprioritises it as an issue then the Reform UK can absolutely step in and say they’re the only ones that are taking immigration seriously
Isn't that precisely what the current appeal of Reform UK is based on? Only 1% of voters believe that the Rwanda policy will stop the boats. So if you agree with Rishi Sunak that stopping the boats is the most important issue facing the UK then voting Tory won't help.
Rishi Sunak is making a monumental mistake he should be playing down the importance of the issue and focusing instead on making empty promises about the economy.
The Tories have always been very good at that, convincing people to support nonsensical economic bollocks, from Thatcher through to Austerity Dave.
In other European countries where the mainstream conservative parties have jumped on the illegal migration bandwagon it is the far-right fringe parties that have benefitted, not them, look at France, Italy, Austria, etc, for examples, there is no reason to believe that the UK Conservatives will buck the trend.
And the threat that Reform UK poses to the Tories should not be underestimated, it is huge. If Labour do end up with a 200 seat majority it won't simply be because they are massively popular.
The predictions of a huge Labour majority are based on Labour's current standing in the opinion polls which is about 43-44%, Labour managed to get 40% in the 2017 (despite not being in government) so not a huge difference.
The big difference now is the unprecedented low level of support for the Tories. And this isn't because of increased support for the LibDems which has remained more or less the same for the last ten years.
The joker in the pack is Reform UK which is currently polling about 9%, just behind the LibDems. However if Rishi Sunak wants to play Reform UK at their own game I can guarantee that he will lose.
What possible reason is there for anyone who is currently saying that they will vote Reform UK to switch to the Conservatives? Because of a failed policy which Rishi Sunak claims is absolutely imperative and practically no one believes will ever succeed??
Another tiny
problem foropportunity from the Rwanda policy….
You’re not thinking like a Tory. Expect one of them to acquire an aircraft then lease it out on charter for a substantial mark up, unless Infosys has an aircraft to be chartered.
You’re not thinking like a Tory
That's a great compliment! I'll take that. 😂
You’re not thinking like a Tory. Expect one of them to acquire an aircraft then lease it out on charter for a substantial mark up, unless Infosys has an aircraft to be chartered.
You’re not thinking like a Tory either. You need to go full Grayling on this one….
Set up a company called Deportation Airways which still doesn’t have any actual aircraft, then award it a 200 million pound contract to not actually deport anyone
I'm sure the Tories can reach out to their Russian 'friends' and wet charter an aircraft, complete with aircrew - there are hundreds of Ilyushins and Tupolevs sitting unused just waiting to be used. The fact that they might crash is of no real consequence, but getting one into UK airspace might be tricky, but then again I'm sure Rishi can bung some cash to the CAA to make it happen.
In other European countries where the mainstream conservative parties have jumped on the illegal migration bandwagon it is the far-right fringe parties that have benefitted, not them, look at France, Italy, Austria, etc, for examples, there is no reason to believe that the UK Conservatives will buck the trend.
The differnce is PR. Most european parliaments are proportional which means minor parties can win seats. FPTP negates this in the UK. What has really happened is that the far right rather than forming their own party have taken over the tories. Wilders, Meloni etc would not be out of place in the modern tory party. Reform is just a pressure group to pressure the Tories to shift further to the right by threatening to take their votes ie splitting the right wing vote.
Myself I doubt reform will stand against tories
Myself I doubt reform will stand against tories
They absolutely will stand against the Tories. Richard Tyce has still never forgiven them for being had over by Johnson and standing down their candidates last time, only to see him go back on his promises once elected.
While you may rightfully say ‘more fool you for trusting Boris Johnson’, they certainly won’t be doing any deals this time around. Tyce is a vindictive bastard and seems to be absolutely relishing the prospect of splitting the elderly racist vote and seeing prominent Tories lose their seats
If only there was a party with a positive spin on fixing some of the problems - like actual problems facing folk today. No one dare go near solutions.
I hate the expression - they're all the same but it has gone that way.
Just levels of grimness.
McDonald's or Burger king? Both shite. Maybe one has a clown and the other is flame grilled but either not good for you.
The differnce is PR. Most european parliaments are proportional which means minor parties can win seats.
That's precisely why we are talking about a possible Labour 200 seat majority. Despite having a relatively small approx 9% level of support Reform UK could have a devastating effect on the Tory Party's fortune, as seat after seat falls to Labour. Thanks to first past the post.
If only there was a party with a positive spin on fixing some of the problems – like actual problems facing folk today. No one dare go near solutions.
Greens and SNP
Agreed Ernie - but unlike in most of Europe Reform will win no seats Reform is just a pressure group to make the tories move to the right - rather different to mainland europe where the centre right and far right both win seats. Tory policies are really much the same as the far right parties and as above both Wilders and Meloni would both be at home in the tory party
I don’t mind PR, but don’t forget that UKIP polled 14% and didn’t win a seat. That’s a sizeable disenfranchised minority, and is largely responsible for the mess the tories (and the rest of us) find ourselves in.
I’m a democrat to the core, and hate UKIP with a passion, but even I thought it was rough justice.
Hard one to call. Unlike the last election, there isn't a Brexit dream to chase/lose, so splitting the vote in key seats isn't as risky for Tyce's mob. On the other hand... it could all be brinksmanship to hold the feet to the fire of whoever is currently Tory PM. Who knows where they'll stand candidates, and who they're prepared to bring down on the Tory side. They could decide to get a commitment from each MP before withdrawing their candidate... or even be talking to some behind the scene about a possible bait and switch to become "Reform" MPs once elected... approaches have already happened in a few cases... was it Gullis that openly rejected an offer to switch in return for cash, or one of the others? [ EDIT: it was Lee Anderson, not Gullis ]
- From TJ's point... these UKIP/Brexit/Reform parties have all been more like the Tea Party in the USA than the separate parties all over Europe. Changing Tory policy, and getting their own people into local constituencies memberships and even into parliament with Tory rosettes.
- From Binners point... the way things currently look, Tyce has no fear of damaging the Tories at this election. Has nothing really to lose. That could change between now and election. Not least because Farage hasn't played a hand yet, and won't 'till it gets him maximum exposure... I'm guessing that'll be the week the election date is revealed by the government.
Look how comfortable the horrible little **** is in this photo.
That's Giorgia Meloni, yeah?
She’s a full on fascist and makes no attempt to hide it. Other attendees this weekend, who Sunak was cosying up too we’re such delightful characters as Steve Bannon and Viktor Orbán
That’s the company the present UK prime minister is very publicly keeping
I know that he’s trying to reassure the racist loons that he’s on their side, but I can’t see many voters, outside a real far right hardcore, thinking this is a particularly good look for ‘Global Britain’
I think enjoys being taller than another delegate.
That’s Giorgia Meloni, yeah?
the recently single Giorgia Meloni 😉?
More great news for Rishi in todays Observer. It looks like the man-frog is indeed set to rejoin Tyce and Co in the Reform party in the new year
Farage plans return to ‘help Reform UK make election about immigration
Agreed Ernie – but unlike in most of Europe Reform will win no seats
No they are highly unlikely to win any seats despite probably polling only two or three percent less than the LibDems, thanks to their support being spread out and the effect of first past the post.
But that's not the point. The point is that they are very likely to help Labour secure a huge majority.
The other point is that Rishi Sunak dancing to their tune is very likely to help them, not the Tories.
And the great news for Reform UK is that, like Labour, they don't have to do anything, just sit back and let the Tories do all the work for them. How many people can name their leaders apart from Farage? Never mind their actual policies!
the man-frog
Racist!
No need to refer to his French Huguenot asylum-seeking heritage. And his poncy french name.
Edit: For the record my surname is 100% french.
Corrupt ****er.
Reform have to run candidates in this election or they are toast. They conveniently dropped out of the last election, if they drop out of this one then even the loons will wonder whats the point if you can't even vote for them at any point.
What possible reason is there for anyone who is currently saying that they will vote Reform UK to switch to the Conservatives?
If Torys can get even more nasty to get within at least toucing distance of Reforms policies then I could see people going back to the Tories as at least they have a chance of getting an MP or even winning the election (obviously they don't but better bet than Reform). May as well get 90% of the nastiness and get some sort of power than just a potential wasted vote and end up with the wokerati Labour.
When we had proper rent controls back in the 80s there was no shortage of property to rent and its not had much of an effect in Scotland where there has basically been a rent freeze and no no fault evictions for 3 years now IIRC. When we had proper rent controls back in the 80s there was no shortage of property to rent and its not had much of an effect in Scotland where there has basically been a rent freeze and no no fault evictions for 3 years now IIRC.
Fwiw, article in today's FT says:
London rents are set to rise by just 2 per cent in 2024, down from 9 per cent in 2023, and 17 per cent in 2022. Rental growth in Scotland, however, has continued to climb at 12.9 per cent, up from 11.4 per cent a year ago. Zoopla said rent controls were probably contributing to the rises. "Landlords and agents are likely to be pushing rents higher to allow for the fact that rental increases will be capped at 3 per cent a year throughout a tenancy and with the affordability headroom to do this," the company said.
I don't necessarily agree with what Zoopla says (I have given up trying to understand housing market) and I don't even understand the last 8 words.
What they are saying is that when flat6s become empty the price gets pushed up to compensate for the fact that in tenancy they cannot be raised. My point was tho that a rent freeze has not caused any more of a shortage of rental properties
Edinburgh rents have become stupid - I saw a studio flat for £1000 pcm -
Rent controls are needed as well. Scot gov have gone halfway with the rental freeze and no no fault evictions
May as well get 90% of the nastiness
I'm not sure that people think like that. The Tories are offering a policy which apparently only 1% of the population believe will achieve its stated aim, and nothing much more than that.
It hardly provides a good reason for voters who up until now have said that they will vote Reform UK to suddenly switch to the Tories.
Furthermore you have to assume that for people who are telling pollsters that they intend to vote Reform UK having your party in power is not a huge priority.
There is no evidence that Rishi Sunak is having any success enticing Reform UK supporters. In fact Reform UK support is currently about double what it was a couple of years ago.
I guess that with the ever growing evidence that the Tories have zero chance of forming the next government more people might be tempted to vote Reform UK, since voting Tory is unlikely to make that much difference to the outcome.
Reform have to run candidates in this election or they are toast. They conveniently dropped out of the last election, if they drop out of this one then even the loons will wonder whats the point if you can’t even vote for them at any point.
its about pressuring the Tories to run with their agenda
i would in no way be surprised if they pull out again & their supporters will still be waving the flag for bigotry that reform champions
its about pressuring the Tories to run with their agenda
indeed and its worked in pulling the tories to the right.