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The Tories are offering a policy which apparently only 1% of the population believe will achieve its stated aim, and nothing much more than that.
Next to no one thinks that it is genuinely a useful thing to, but a lot of people just want to kick out and make life worse for others.
There is a reason why Reform UK members are not in the Tory Party, it isn't because they have been banned.
The only reason that the Brexit Party agreed not to stand in seats that the Tories could win in 2019 was because after 2017 they were terrified of the consequences of Corbyn winning election.
They don't have a similar fear about Keir Starmer.
They wanted to avoid being blamed for Brexit not being done. And not being done hard. That’s why they did a deal to help Johnson get his majority to push it all through. The calculations will be quite different this time. I have no idea what they’ll do. All hangs on what Farage does next year I suspect.
but a lot of people just want to kick out
So why would they back a party who they think won't achieve that?
If you really believe that a lot of people just want to be deeply unpleasant and not much more.
A lot of otherwise nice people can be led to believe that treating asylum seekers and immigrants poorly is a way towards a fairer life for them and their own families and communities, despite all the evidence. Signally to them how far you will go to kick down foreigners seeking a life here is still a vote winner. But not an election winner. Not on its own anyway.
The Tories are offering a policy which apparently only 1% of the population believe will achieve its stated aim, and nothing much more than that.
That's not the same as only 1% support it. There might be 10% that support it but don't think it goes far enough, but will accept it as a stepping stone to who know what?
Kelvin - I think that we might be talking at cross purposes. I am talking about people who are currently telling pollsters that if there was a general election right now that they would be voting for Reform UK. That is what the current seat predictions of a Labour majority of about 200 seats is based on.
What is Rishi Sunak doing right now to win them back to the Conservatives? Presumably they already knew about the Rwanda scheme as that dates back to Johnson. The only way it has changed is that more and more people realise that it is bollocks.
Support for Reform UK has grown since Rishi Sunak became PM. This reflects similar developments in other European countries where mainstream conservative parties have jumped on the anti asylum seeker bandwagon.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/01/the-far-right-is-winning-europes-immigration-debate/
Mainstream parties across Europe are shifting their positions on immigration in hopes of impeding the rise of the far right. But there’s growing reason to think that the effort may be self-defeating, strengthening the radical right at their own expense.
According to a study of 12 Western European nations that was published last year by Cambridge University Press, there is “no support for the claim that accommodating radical right positions [on immigration] weakens the radical right electorally.”
On the contrary, the electorate often credits the far right for these positions and likely defects to it instead. “By legitimising a framing that is associated with the radical right, mainstream politicians can end up contributing to its success,” the researchers of the study wrote in an article for the Guardian.
What is Rishi Sunak doing right now to win them back to the Conservatives?
What would dropping the policy do for him, with those voters? And his MPs? He’s stuck with it, just to hold onto his position, and keep what little and heavily qualified support he has. Growing support might be an additional aim, but just treading water is looking like furious and tiring work for him now. Anyway, this is looping and adding nothing. I’m bored typing these words… never mind reading them.
That post about other European countries is interesting, but doesn’t translate directly to FPTP elections (in the UK and elsewhere) when people weigh up the effect of their vote in their seat. I think we’ve done that already as well. Enough of the repetition.
I just don't see a solution for him right now. As you've pointed out, virtually no-one thinks the Rwanda deal will stop the boats, but of those 99% some (please, a big majority) don't see the point full stop, it's not a big issue / immigrants are vital to continuing public services, social care, hospitality etc; some don't think it's anywhere near tough enough.
So what does he do. If he drops the policy, then the RW nutters will defect to Reform (voters and MPs), or put their letters in and try to force another election and install their own headcase as PM. If he toughens even further as the racists and ERG nutters want him to do, then the one nation tories could do the same or could defect to LD. So he's stood on an ever eroding pinnacle with nowhere to go to and with every passing day failing to get on with running the country, and losing more votes as a result. It's a situation entirely of their own making and it's bloody brilliant to watch.
At least Truss had the good sense to jack in after a month or so.
I just don’t see a solution for him right now.
No of course not. And there is absolutely no reason why Rishi Sunak wouldn't be aware of the evidence that focusing on immigration as a central policy simply benefits the far-right.
But this isn't about logic, it is about desperation. Rishi Sunak reminds me of the intelligent man who makes stupid decisions because he has a gambling addiction.
He simply ignores all the evidence of the most likely outcome of his decisions because he doesn't want to believe it, and instead hopes and prays that luck will save him from what is almost certainly inevitable.
Intelligent people can make very dumb decisions when they are really desperate.
So... Sunak's fun weekend away at Giorgia Meloni's gathering in Rome with Elon Musk and co... the short version...
- "we're" at risk of being overrun with immigrants
- "we" have a population crisis on the way because "we" aren't having enough kids
Put those two together, and they're saying the quiet bits out loud now.
Some pointless factoids from the reporting (Times)... Sunak has a large collection of lightsabers... Musk has 11 kids.
My point was tho that a rent freeze has not caused any more of a shortage of rental properties
I mean - I suppose one could say that rental properties are still on the market even if they're on at a higher rate.
Meanwhile, in this mornings Tory La-La-Land... Rishi is out cosplaying again, stood in front of some fighter jets at an RAF base. Why? Who knows? Who cares?
And his 'Minister for Common Sense' has declared a 'War on Woke', whatever that is, in this mornings Daily Heil
Another Tory being investigated...?
... apparently triggering another bout of blood-letting from the right-wing tinfoil-helmet brigade
I still can't work out in the Minister for Common Sense is more or less of a piss-take than the Minister for Funny Walks
Another Tory being investigated…?
… apparently triggering another bout of blood-letting from the right-wing tinfoil-helmet brigade
Reading more depth there is a suggestion it is infighting in the party, rather than an accusation of doing wrong in the eyes of the law...?
I still can’t work out in the Minister for Common Sense is more or less of a piss-take than the Minister for Funny Walks
Because there was constant criticism that the current government lacked common sense Rishi Sunak decided to appoint a Minister for Common Sense.
Although her real title is Minister without Portfolio, or in other words Minister without a Proper Job.
Bearing in mind that she will receive a ministerial wage, despite not having a proper job, you could call that taking the piss.
I imagine it is the infighting that has led to evidence of her wrongdoing being handed to the standards people. Must be pretty bad if it can cause 'significant damage to the reputation' of this particular Parliament.
So its her and Danny Kruger, as co-chairs of the New Conservatives, who are today demanding that Sunak withdraw the UK from the ECHR as the only hope to win the next election?
So its her and Danny Kruger, as co-chairs of the New Conservatives, who are today demanding that Sunak withdraw the UK from the ECHR as the only hope to win the next election?
Flippin heck.
What a changed person she is. She was a tenant of mine for a year, and her husband our lodger just before they got married...
The fact that Kruger is Prue Leith's son has put me right off Bake Off!
Withdrawing from ECHR basically destroys the foundation of the NI Good Friday Agreement, and there is probably a more significant (but shrinking) group of Tory MPs who won't put up with that.
Anyone with anything between their ears knows that there are all manner of reasons that the UK can't withdraw from the ECHR. Its pure fantasy from the hard right headbangers that the UK could just unilaterally tear up international agreements and not become a pariah state like Belarus
But this lot are so unhinged that they won't hear that. And these loons are once again the tail wagging the Tory dog
there are all manner of reasons that the UK
can’tshouldn't withdraw from the ECHR
Slight amend.
and not become a pariah state like Belarus
There are people who absolutely would do this to the UK for personal gain. And millions of people who could be encouraged to willingly support them despite gaining nothing out of it themselves.
The fact that Kruger is Prue Leith’s son has put me right off Bake Off!
It's his brother Freddie that's the real black sheep of the family tbf
Withdrawing from ECHR basically destroys the foundation of the NI Good Friday Agreement, and there is probably a more significant (but shrinking) group of Tory MPs who won’t put up with that.
And the small matter of screwing the current arrangement with the EU and making a right old mess of our relationship with the US...
And the small matter of screwing the current arrangement with the EU and making a right old mess of our relationship with the US…
It's a small price to pay for SOV-RIN-TEE!
Freedom from the shackles of human rights wokery.
Up until those same people discover that they no longer have the right to a fair trial and then bleat that they didn't think leaving ECHR would apply to [b]them[/b]...
Bit like the Leave voters who only discovered after the fact that removing Freedom of Movement applied to them as well and they could no longer spend half the year in Spain.
see his latest brain fart of getting involved in the Mone thang, has bitten him in the arse within 2 hrs 😕 Mone "well you knew all about it Chancellor". Who does he rely on for advice ? It's such an easy dodge, politician 101.
^^lol Not seen that yet but I'm not surprised.
guilt by association 😉
Oh this will be good, I’m getting the popcorn ready and settling in for this one
my guess is they have got the squeeze on her to give the money back so it doesn't reflect too bad on the party and it gives Sunak a small win.
Sunak in front of his personal taxi there I see... 🙄
I was honest with the Cabinet Office, the Government and the NHS in my dealings with them.They all knew about my involvement from the very beginning.
That doesn't add up. She's spent the last God knows how long denying it was anything to do with her!
I was honest with the Cabinet Office....
But then I lied like **** about it to everyone else. Until I finally came clean and said that everyone knew anyway.
Has she been taking lessons in consistency from Boris Johnson?!
Sunak in front of his personal taxi there I see… 🙄
Nah that’s not a real plane - it’s far too small compared to Sunak, it’s an airfix model
Jaysus, talk about a clickbait headline, I fell for it hook line and sinker.
Rishi Sunak confirms when next UK general election will be held
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-rishi-sunak-confirms-next-31703654
I did like this bit though:
The PM said he was “fired up” and “hungry to win” as he revealed that he wants to remain in No10 until at least 2030.
That's hilarious.
Sunak getting an absolute roasting in the Liaison Committee and he's in full petulant public schoolboy mode. Worth a watch!
he’s in full petulant public schoolboy mode
He does this a lot. His attitude stinks, it's like his brain is constantly going:
"why are the plebs questioning ME, I'm brilliant and they should be grateful to be ruled over by ME"
He simply can't compute that he's not brilliant, that people don't think he's a genius, put there by God to rule over the little people.
What do you mean, you want to question ME?
Johnson wore his entitlement on his sleeve - he had the charisma, the confidence to (mostly) pull it off; Sunak is at least as entitled (if not moreso) but can't pull it off in the way that Johnson could bluster his way through it.
What has young Miriam been up to? Westminster gossip hinting at financial irregularities involving foreign governments...which surely cannot be true for such a fine, upstanding, Christian lady.
https://twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1737095791091605695
Sunak getting an absolute roasting in the Liaison Committee and he’s in full petulant public schoolboy mode. Worth a watch!
He was his usual irate self when questioned on a Gaza ceasefire, I couldn’t sit across from him without wanting to grab his head and smash it repeatedly off the desk.
What has young Miriam been up to? Westminster gossip hinting at financial irregularities involving foreign governments
They’re great all these self-appointed, flag-waving ‘patriots’, aren’t they?
Whatever she’s done, the permanently-apoplectic, conspiracy-theory wingnuts on the Tory right are all now in meltdown, tinfoil helmets well and truly on, alleging all kinds of wild plots and schemes to discredit her for ‘speaking the truth’
It’s a joy to witness. Utterly unhinged, the lord of them! 😃
I couldn’t sit across from him without wanting to grab his head and smash it repeatedly off the desk.
Surely a massive wedgie would be more appropriate? Hang him on a coat hook by the back of his bills, and leave him with his little legs flailing