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Brexit was a big factor too though.
Brexit was THE factor in that shift, not the bonuses. Look at the state of the FTSE 100 since 2016.
The global market has little faith in the UK political stability at the moment and have been slowly pulling out.
Regarding quality of life Vs higher taxes, the third element of that has been missed which is distribution of wealth.
The countries all listed all have a more equal distribution amongst the population.
I CBA to pull it up, but the FT did an eye opening comparison across Europe and 'murica, and the UK came out as a poor country with a few very rich people in it. The example they used was Slovenia, the vast majority of us are poorer than them in real terms and far behind the scandi country's, Germany, France, Netherlands etc. who we compare ourselves to.
The budget yesterday did nothing to move the needle on that
The tory on today's Politics Live has just repeated the same nonsense statement laura trott made yesterday...we borrowed £400 billion and that must be paid back.
As yesterday, that statement went completely unchallenged; why did no-one ask...who did we borrow it from? The UK can create and cancel money. There wasn't any borrowing.
With all this talk of cuts and how shit our services are, not to mention wage inequality just be thankful we don't have a corbyn government - we really dodged a bullet there so lets be thankfull for our benevolent tory ****s.
I still wonder longingly what chaos with Ed Milliband would have looked like
Oh, yes the capital flight from those rich bankers with their bonuses safely tucked away in an offshore tax haven living in a house owned by a foreign-domiciled shell company that pay no tax here.
I still wonder longingly what chaos with Ed Milliband would have looked like
Listen, right now I'm thinking wistfully about Strong and Stable with Theresa.
I still wonder longingly what chaos with Ed Milliband would have looked like
That would have been a dull short-lived docu-soap on Channel4
Not to mention taking a trip out to that impoverished northern town of Cambridge. If ever a city needed levelling up it was that wasteland with nothing but the most famous university in the world and an absolutely massive tech gold rush sector going for it…..
This isn't as good as it sounds. One of the highest property price Vs wages outside of London, terrible traffic, massive unaffordable house building and rental market, severe lack of social housing, poor state schools, some serious inequality, digging up greenbelt to free up brownfield sites, and no MTB riding nearby. I would prefer the gold rush to be a bit better distributed across the country.
Quick rundown on the Budget...
This isn’t as good as it sounds. One of the highest property price Vs wages outside of London, terrible traffic, massive unaffordable house building and rental market, severe lack of social housing, poor state schools, some serious inequality, digging up greenbelt to free up brownfield sites, and no MTB riding nearby. I would prefer the gold rush to be a bit better distributed across the country.
From almost any perspective then the solution is surely to reduce the incentives to locate there and increase them elsewhere. If you solve the traffic with more roads, you get more people, so house prices go up. If you build more houses, you make more traffic, and the schools struggle with even more oversubscription. etc, etc.
What you've described is what "leveled up" looks like, except the schools, that's just the Tories fault.
Listen, right now I’m thinking wistfully about Strong and Stable with Theresa.
Remember the ideologically poor but competent Cameron + Osbourne years?
Back on the topic of Rishi.
I did enjoy the exchange after the budget where Starmer asked him which bit of his economic legacy he was most proud of.
And Rishi replied with Furlough, the thing that briefly made us more socialist than we've ever been.
And meager credit where it's due, fiscal drag on the £50k/40% tax rate whilst aiming to abolish employee NI is a very progressive policy. Sure if you're earning >£50k that £450 saved in NI disappears pretty quickly, but you've got broader shoulders to deal with it than someone on an average wage who will get that £450.
But they did stop recruitment in the UK and ramp it up in Germany and France
And of course both Germany & France are known for their low taxation regimes...
I CBA to pull it up, but the FT did an eye opening comparison across Europe and ‘murica, and the UK came out as a poor country with a few very rich people in it.
As I've said before, "America, a rich country full of poor people".
Nice to se the governments continued commitment to ‘Levelling Up’ with the announcement of a massive investment in the disadvantaged northern town of…
*checks notes*
…Canary Wharf
Canary Wharf, or the Borough of Tower Hamlets which covers it?
Sure if you’re earning >£50k that £450 saved in NI disappears pretty quickly
People earning around about £50k are the biggest beneficiaries of the NI cut. Where as the lowest paid get bugger all help at all.
[ Some Guardian reading for the bored ]
So apparently the brain dead ex uk science minister recieved advice on her tweet that has led to us paying her legal bills
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/07/uk-science-secretary-michelle-donelan-government-advice-tweet
Let's hope the info behind that will be dragged out for all to see
Canary Wharf, or the Borough of Tower Hamlets which covers it?
Hunt specifically said Canary Wharf. No mention of Tower Hamlets.
People earning around about £50k are the biggest beneficiaries of the NI cut. Where as the lowest paid get bugger all help at all.
I agree, but you could level the opposite but equally flawed criticism at a cut in income tax. If you took 1% off the 20% rate then that would net someone on £100k about £900, and someone on minimum wage only about £100. At least cutting NI effectively cuts tax for the most people, and doesn't offer additional benefit to those on significantly higher than average incomes.
NI is a weird tax, and as fiscal drag moves thresholds down it looks more and more regressive.
Just get rid of it and replace it with 10/20/30/40/50 thresholds which is effectively what we have anyway (just disguised).
Hunt specifically said Canary Wharf. No mention of Tower Hamlets.
Interesting then. Helping their property owning donor friends after all.
thisisnotaspoon
Free MemberBack on the topic of Rishi.
I did enjoy the exchange after the budget where Starmer asked him which bit of his economic legacy he was most proud of.
And Rishi replied with Furlough, the thing that briefly made us more socialist than we’ve ever been.
And which was pretty much entirely just copied homework to boot.
I agree, but you could level the opposite but equally flawed criticism at a cut in income tax.
Increasing the threshold to say £25K but then adding a new 45% level at say £70K would mean the lower paid are not paying any tax while those over £70k are still paying the same or a bit more.
And Rishi replied with Furlough, the thing that briefly made us more socialist than we’ve ever been
Yep - you gotta laugh at capitalists not recognising that the state provisions their economy, and not just in a pandemic.
morning!
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1765970570762420227?t=0eiYZvHAaUhVcpfZN2Px8g&s=19
im starting to think a December GE is more likely than ever
yougov for the times (from the fail)
Whenever the election actually is it looks like theres going to be some serious competition for 'The Portillo Moment'. Something to look forward to. Rishi himself would be priceless. Has a sitting PM ever lost their seat before?
I see Theresa May is the latest one to head for the liferafts as the ship goes down
Remember the ideologically poor but competent Cameron + Osbourne years?
Nope, sorry.
Me neither, both complete ****ers although Dave probably hid it a bit better than the current lot (hold on, he is the current lot now isn't he)
I dunno, we had 4 years of Tory dominated coalition before Brexit, everything was going to shit, but at least it was a consistent shit, not a new shit each week, dead pigs excepted.
Increasing the threshold to say £25K but then adding a new 45% level at say £70K would mean the lower paid are not paying any tax while those over £70k are still paying the same or a bit more.
Steps on a road, we're arguing for the same or similar things but it's not going to happen overnight.
The other side of the equation is how do you solve the productivity problem, we need to somehow move towards a point where labour becomes more scarce and expensive in order to push up wages and encourage investment in things that improve GDP/capita (i.e. wages) rather than just GDP alongside a growing workforce.
the cameron austerity years laid the foundations for our current mess
cutting services saw, stalled investment & growth, housing bubble was kept propped up- widening inequality, people saw deterioration in living standards , all made fertile ground for scapegoating immigrants , blaming the EU & the rise of populism.
It seemed like the most desperate political act I'd ever seen when Rishi bought Dave back. A proper 'WTF?!!' moment
But that was a couple of months ago now and Rishi has upped the ante considerably since then
that yougov one ....
But that was a couple of months ago now and Rishi has upped the ante considerably since then
He does it on an almost daily basis.
The worst of them all.
I wonder when they release the full video of that magazine interview?
It will be so bad I'll have to watch.
yougov
HTF have ReformUK got 13% of votes?
Surely that poll is optimistic. No way the tories would be down to that few seats.
Would be amazing to see but i can't believe it
I wonder when they release the full video of that magazine interview?
They were discussing it on the radio the other day and the word used by people who'd seen the whole thing was 'excrutiating'
HTF have ReformUK got 13% of votes?
Easy. There's a chunk of people who are socially right wing but have lost faith in the current govt to do anything, so they've switched their vote.
You know, the fact that even if the Tories did twice as well as the polls and won double the predicted seats that they'd still be decimated is just astonishing. It could be a Canada '93 or the Liberals in the '20s moment. This could be a proper political turning point.
I'd not seen the video - I regret what I have watched. Who's idea was it to shoot it in portrait?
https://graziadaily.co.uk/life/in-the-news/rishi-sunak-akshata-murty-full-video/
In other Rich Sunk news, I'm pleased to note the "Rats leaving the ship" syndrome has kicked in with 60 Tory's stepping down. Probably the ones that were going to lose their seat anyway, but it did fill me with deep joy to know that there is a very strong likelihood, that the Torys are no longer going to be the leaders of opposition and it is likely to be the Liberals 😉
So the torys will become a minority party of deluded fugwits stuck in the 1800's, happy days 😉 Yeah bring it on with Fat-age windbag witless Wittercombe and we'll be looking at a party that Enoch Powell, if he was still alive would be proud of ;-)))
JeZ
This could be a proper political turning point.
It would be absolute justice after the last 14 years but I don't think I'll get my hopes up too much.
And even if it does happen, Reform are going to replace them. Not the LibDems.
It would be absolute justice after the last 14 years but I don’t think I’ll get my hopes up too much.
A lot of people are also disillusioned with thevLabour alternative and/or politicians in general. Nothing is guaranteed
A lot of people are also disillusioned with the Labour alternative and/or politicians in general
Yep, count me in on that one. Will still take the alternative over the tories in a less bad sort of way which is what it has come to.
I’d not seen the video – I regret what I have watched. Who’s idea was it to shoot it in portrait?
https://graziadaily.co.uk/life/in-the-news/rishi-sunak-akshata-murty-full-video//blockquote >
Most young people watch the news on their phones.
On the one hand there's no inherent reason why TV should be landscape other than that's what works for the majority of content.
On the other hand landscape would definitely work better when interviewing a couple 😂
You know, the fact that even if the Tories did twice as well as the polls and won double the predicted seats that they’d still be decimated is just astonishing. It could be a Canada ’93 or the Liberals in the ’20s moment. This could be a proper political turning point.
That's not quite how it works. You can get 49.9% of the popular vote and still get zero seats in FPTP. Those incredible forecasts assume that the conservatives fall below the threshold needed to win in a lot of seats. It's why the Lib Dems poll worse than them, but the forecast assumes they'll do better because their support is concentrated in geographical areas. 20% is rubbish and gets you nowhere if it's spread over the UK. It's great if it's concentrated in 40% of the country. The polling get's less and less accurate the further you move away from the data from previous elections, and based on the last ~20 years, tends to overdo the swing.
I had to turn that off!
Absolutely terrible.
He must have the worst advisors if they are telling him to do this shit.
He must have the worst advisors if they are telling him to do this shit.
Probably picked them up cheap from Prince Andrew.
That’s not quite how it works.
Yeah I know, I was more musing on the fact that even if they doubled their seat prediction, they'd still just be on 50 or so. It's a remarkable thing to be watching.
I keep having to remind myself that that number's not a majority, or the number of seats fewer than a Labour administration, that's in total.
That is truly terrible. I got to "when the girls were little". It's the most desperate look at me video I have ever seen.
If they follow 2017 and 2019 playbook I think they'll be in for hiding.... It's one thing not engaging with the people (hiding in fridges, dodging debates, phoney town halls and rallies, running from interviewers) when your ahead in the poles not when you're 25 pts back. When your quarter back has had a charisma bypass and is shirty with it, dumb and dumber running interference and team of mad squabbling badgers. Also It probably won't be long before the Dirty Digger swaps sides .
You’re not wrong – but… even on your phone they have embedded it in a landscape box to view it.
That's less forgivable for the production team 😂.
The way around that is to film in 4k, then do portrait and landscape crops for each of your outlets, or just film with the real camera and phone side by side.
Yeah I know, I was more musing on the fact that even if they doubled their seat prediction, they’d still just be on 50 or so. It’s a remarkable thing to be watching.
Yea, I'm hoping they take an absolute drubbing. It'll be interesting to see what seats they target heavily. Do they send the big guns to the red wall to try and keep those and more marginal seats like a normal election. Or retreat to safe seats and fight to keep a credible number in parliament?
Or retreat to safe seats and fight to keep a credible number in parliament?
This. The decision has already been made. That’s why so many Tory MPs are standing down. They’ve been told that there’s no realistic chance of retaining their seat so the party won’t be putting any resources into fighting it. Expect lots more to throw the towel in before the election
but seeing the Tories become the 3rd party would be most amusing
It would be more than amusing. It would make me totally reconsider my view of what the UK is, and who we are. For the better.
It’s not going to happen. 40+ LibDem MPs is likely (cross fingers) but under 100 Conservative MPs just will not happen. Never mind under 50 of them.
Prove me wrong Britain.
The decision has already been made. That’s why so many Tory MPs are standing down.
it will be very interesting to see who does stand in all these seats for the Tories,
rw press in full swing and full on monstering of Labour
on R4 yesterday am, reading the newspaper headlines, they commented that the Times & Sun (ie Murdoch) had favourable pieces about Labour. Possible echo of 1997- been cosying up to him to get good press?
Murdoch is totally mercenary. He’s a gambler, always betting on the favourite.
The Tories polling now is worse than it was after Mad Lizzies insane mini-budget
Peoples minds are made up already when they look at their bank balances
Like Clinton said “it’s the economy, stupid”
Everyone feels worse off - because they are - we’re in recession and everyone knows this lot haven’t got a *ing clue how to get us out of this shit, because they’re all multi millionaires si they couldn’t give a flying * how their ongoing car crash wrecks the economy. Utter *ing *s, the lot of them!
Don't underestimate the core Tory vote, they will hold their noses, drink the Kool Aid and vote Tory - the polls are miles away, closet Tories. I might go and put a bet on a hung parliament.
Most mainstream Tories will vote to keep them in power in the hope they can boot Sunak and install some other victim.
I think small labour majority or hung parliament
The labour vote is soft and there is little enthusiasm for labour
Don’t forget that all these new ‘Red Wall’ Tory MPs are sat on paper thin majorities
They’re long gone already. Nothing is going to save them, least of all Rishi
Loads of marginal constituencies only require a tiny shift to go from Tory to Labour. The Mekon-headed Tory nobhead who’s presently my MP has a majority of 100 votes. If I have to stay up all night to watch that **** lose his seat, it’ll be worth every minute
I am also going for small Labour majority. Would be shocked if it was a hung parliament.
Maybe like waking up on the morning after the Brexit vote as I never though people were stupid enough to do that.
Well the £/$ rallied this week after the budget - surely a sign that the budget was a total success?
Apparently that's the metric these days for working class folk.
(I think not.)
I think small labour majority or hung parliament
I dont know, that poll shows the SNP getting a good walloping as well which will help Labour even if the Liberals hoover up a few Scottish seats. Its a perfect storm for the Tories, most people have finally realised they are a political vacuum, Reform will hoover up a lot of votes, but right across the country so wont get any seats (for once I'm glad we're a FPTP system), that damages the Tories and the SNP is not in a good place, the charismatic leader is gone, independance is past its peak and there's all the usual drip drip of bad news which any long serving party in power racks up.
It's Labour's to lose and despite the naysayers here saying they are too bland, too centrist, devoid of policy their poll leads are holding up.
Don’t underestimate the core Tory vote
The Tory core vote is about 30%, that represents the voters who will always vote Tory no matter what. It's what the Tories got in the Labour landslide of 1997.
I can't imagine the Tories getting less than that in this year's general election - the only situation which might create such a condition is if their core lacks the motivation to get out and vote on election day, something which if I was a Tory politician I would be very concerned about, especially as Starmer is no Corbyn.
There is nothing that points to a hung parliament or a small Labour majority imo, and not least because there is no hint of any recovery from their disastrous coalition with the Tories for the LibDems - Labour are seen by the vast majority of voters as the only realistic alternative to the Tories.
All the evidence, opinion polls and by-election results, points to Labour getting over 40% of the vote, enough for a comfortable majority and quite possibly a huge landslide victory, due to the disproportionate effects of first past the post.
There is no reason to believe that despite their desperate attempts the Tories will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute. The latest desperate attempt, Islamists are taking over the country, doesn't appear to be helping them.
Another thing to consider is the caliber of the candidates in individual constituencies.
Given the standard of the 2019 intake - Gullis, Anderson etc - already felt like the bottom of the barrel had been scraped clean, what standard of muppet is going to be sent in to replace all those Tory MPs that are standing down?
It doesn’t bear thinking about
Tory core vote is about 30%, that represents the voters who will always vote Tory no matter what.
They could easily lose a third of that to Reform.
The Tory Party is further to the right on a lot of issues than it was in 1997.
There was no viable right wing nutter party in 1997.
Who will want to stand in those seats being vacated by the rats jumping ship? Only hard-core right wing head bangers can think it's a good idea to get into Tory politics at the moment.
Quite Interesting:
There's also a chunk of that 30% whom are firmly working class, people who work, don't claim benefits (even if they are eligible) and detest the people they perceive as lazier than they are who live on benefits. I cant see a lot of them voting Tory this time around, between the self serving antics of the millionaires combined with the obvious state of the country I think at best a lot of them may not vote this time.
I think there's a significant danger in complacency and believing/hoping for total wipeout come election day.
I really hope they are wiped out for, at the very least, 2 terms but I don't think it can be relied upon at all.
That's what did it for Remain in the referendum - the last minute "£350m a week" thing just swung it and I reckon the Tories are holding out for a moment like that. Some slip-up from Labour, maybe all out war in the Middle East, a last minute thing that could distract everyone and swing enough their way.
Don't start crowing about how they'll be annihilated just yet!
Tory core vote is about 30%, that represents the voters who will always vote Tory no matter what.
They could easily lose a third of that to Reform.
That really doesn't represent the Tory core vote - voters who will always vote Tory no matter what.
The Tory/Unionist vote has never been less than 30% in any general election for the last 200 hundred years, although not impossible it is unlikely to easily happen in this year's general election.
I agree that the Tories will lose votes to Reform UK, as they will to Labour and the LibDems, but it is very unlikely to reduce their share of the vote to 20%.
I agree with Ernesto on this one. There are a core of voters who, when push comes to shove at a GE, will revert to their muscle memory and instictively vote Tory. Reform will get nowhere near the level of votes that they're presently polling at and depite everythign there are people who would still lose a limb than vote Labour.
The one place where there isn't crowing or complacency is the Labour party though. Nobody is taking anything for granted, least of all the polls. The shadow of Kinnock still hangs over the party
That’s what did it for Remain in the referendum – the last minute “£350m a week” thing just swung it and I reckon the Tories are holding out for a moment like that. Some slip-up from Labour, maybe all out war in the Middle East, a last minute thing that could distract everyone and swing enough their way.
this is why they hold it until later on the BBB year for a GE
also doesn't hurt if labour have to burn through election cash now with leaflets etc
The one place where there isn’t crowing or complacency is the Labour party though. Nobody is taking anything for granted, least of all the polls. The shadow of Kinnock still hangs over the party
The Tories have a bit of a backdoor route into some of the Labour-controlled councils as well.
Most recently Birmingham and Nottingham (both Labour-controlled) have both declared Section 114 notices - effectively bankruptcy. Councils can't really go bankrupt as such but they can have so much debt that they are unable to produce a balanced budget and that's the case here (as with several other councils such as Croydon (although that was a NOC council).
So the Government have appointed Commissioners to oversee the council and effectively remove control from the elected councillors and put it into the hands of unelected Tory Commissioners.
Carry on running the Labour councils into the ground (and we already know from Sunak himself that money intended for deprived Northern areas was redirected to affluent (Tory) constituencies in the south), then accuse the council of mismanagement, come sweeping in with wide-ranging powers to oversee and manage everything and you've effectively ended up with a Government-run council by stealth. All those nice democratic council elections don't mean anything if your Labour councillors can be swept aside and replaced with some Commissioners....
The Government are holding on for more of the same from other councils (and about 1 in 5 of them have already said they'll be under Section 114 from next year without significant financial help).
The Government are holding on for more of the same from other councils
Our (recently become Labour controlled) borough council has made some unpopular cuts and the local Facebook group Tories are all making it about a poor Labour council rather than 14 years of government cuts.
They get quite nasty if you point it out to them.