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[Closed] Osbourne says no to currency union.

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Obviously there are people who want to run with an "SNP hates the english" agenda so I suppose it's reassuring that this is the best they can find.

Is that what they are saying....."this is the best we can find" ?


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 12:48 am
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Northwind » The funding criteria are based on residency not nationality, incidentally, so anyone who tells you english kids can't get a free degree in Scotland is either lying to you or clueless.

In the same way that English people can vote in the referendum?

They sure can. There are tons of English people getting free education in Scotland and voting in the referendum.


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 3:53 am
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Well said Ernie. Just imagine if this was the other way round and the capital that the SNP would be trying to make. Blimey, if you explain basic economic facts and definitions (that don't suit the "agenda") you are a bully. The only fun thing is (to repeat) watching the wriggling required to ignore/downplay/justify the comments.

The ironing of rejecting a "kid's comments" while including younger voters in the referendum is the full starch and steam iron version. As crisp as a dress shirt - brilliant.


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 7:25 am
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The trouble is you don't explain "basic economic facts and definitions" you rant...To the point you spend time making up strange nicknames for nat politicians.


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 8:07 am
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@ Ben- that story doesn't seem to reliable, with Mori denying they have an employee by the name... Keeping polling internal isn't really suspicious.

It was Gordimhor - though I believe the person used a false name to protect their job.

Kind of makes you wonder if other westminster departments have been retasked to fight this and what affect that's having.

Well, there's the stuff we know about - the Treasury and MoD producing various reports and wheeling out civil servants and military men to make comments to the media. Overseas embassies being instructed to brief against Scottish independence and trying to get foreign governments to comment.


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 8:28 am
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Oh, and speaking of that Cabinet Office Devolution Team:

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/con-dems-dish-out-30k-3536326


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 8:34 am
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duckman - Member
The trouble is you don't explain "basic economic facts and definitions"

Nice misrepresentation (as per) and easily falsifiable (as per) as lots of links to external sites throughout this thread to help those who simply don't believe/are not prepared to believe what I say. Including pros and cons and, as NW happily points out, to articles that challenge some of my own assumptions (eg, recent NIESR article).

TBF, I do let trolls do their own work though, especially when it comes to central bank accounting. No point in wasting time there....

To the point you spend time making up strange nicknames for nat politicians.

"DO" is meant more as an accurate description rather than a nickname. Nicknames are reserved more for the Westminster "elite" (sic). HTH! 😉


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 9:12 am
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EDIT:

easily falsifiable

Would you link to your reply that explained why currency was not an asset the only answer i got was you may as well ask if a stumpjumper was a marsupial or something like that.

he trouble is you don't explain "basic economic facts and definitions" you rant.

Careful now or he will call you a troll.
I would love to see his marking system for his answers and how he would grade his essays on here 😀


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 9:13 am
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On cue!!! This stalking obsession is quite creepy now......

[P23:9]


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 9:15 am
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Its rather ironic that you replied to me somewhat faster than I replied to DUCKMAN but I am the stalker 😛

I stalk lots of people in a chat based forum then iirc its how they work - they work better if you reply to what I say rather than just insult me though 😉
PS would that be a troll or an ad hom then for they are bad.


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 9:17 am
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How can that be a misrepresentation? I copied EXACTLY what you posted and pointed out EXACTLY what you do.Doesn't matter how often you try to suggest people are falsifying what you say. You rant and as said,have spent 130 pages coming up with strange names and links to North Korea/BNP etc for Nat politicians.

Junkyard - lazarus
I would love to see his marking system for his answers and how he would grade his essays on here

Essays need balance,he wouldn't do too well,certainly wouldn't be going to Embra.


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 10:03 am
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No went to the better version across the Firth!!!

(Misrepresentation again - the falsifiable point relates to your ones (which are easy to falsify).Point proven again, thanks,)


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 10:06 am
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What, Lochgelly technical College?


 
Posted : 14/05/2014 10:07 am
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Third page, my goodness.

This hidden poll, assuming it exists. Seems to have been shortly followed by further 'statements of facts/unsubstantiated fear mongering' (you'll need to choose which you prefer)

Can't help but think Better Together research was actually a hedging of bets trying to determine how to retain the probably/possibly vote no electorate rather than attempt to change the probably/possibly vote yes segment. Intriguing.

In a series of grave warnings about the consequence of a Yes vote, the Chancellor also claimed that Scotland could run out of hard cash in the event of independence, the financial-services sector would not survive, and average mortgage payments north of the Border would increase by £5,400 per year.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/osborne-independence-will-kill-scottish-banknotes-1-3411277


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 7:53 am
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The banknote thing is particularly odd - Scottish banknotes aren't legal tender anyway, and that's never caused us any problems.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 8:12 am
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Whilst I've got my suspicious slightly intrigued conspiracy hat on.

Wonder wether this possible poll was conducted as research in a known 'Yes' community? An attempt to 'know the enemy' so to speak.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 8:24 am
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The banknote point is technically correct as is the balance of payments requirement that the FT alludes to today. Not sure where the other figures come from though.

But point out a technicality and what is the response - the "Three Bs". Right on script, brilliant!

I would post a link to a good article explaining the technicalities of how this works now and could/would work in the future but (1) you have to accept that a currency is not an asset to understand the article and (2) apparently I don't do that kind of thing! So I had better stay on Duckman's script too!


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 8:34 am
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You will run out of [s]contributors [/s] trolls to abuse soon THM


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:16 am
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"Liar" - very nice.

The "Duckman script" refers to not explaining things (apparently.) Ben asked about how GOs latest comments worked in practice. It's easy if somewhat dry - but decided not to waste the link in order to stay on script. Perhaps you guys could help him instead? It's an important point especially when Scotland runs a trade deficit with rUK.

Nice misrepresentation again though - sticking to the other script perfectly.

But take some deep breathes, you sound stressed. Is it the polls or the home truths sinking in? It's still a great country even as part of the UK (in fact better that way 😉 )


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:27 am
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None of your posts on this page are to do with the topic. They're all just trolling other posters.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:42 am
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Okay, being a slightly geeky person, I'm interested. At the moment, Scottish notes are backed by deposits at the BoE, aren't they?

So either that continues, or the BoE gives the deposits back, and they're held by the banks that issue the notes (or some central bank or whatever).

The idea that an independent Scotland is going to run out of money is preposterous - the real elephant in the room, which Osborne refuses to address, is what happens to the rUK's balance of payments when Scotland leaves.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:42 am
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Ben, yes at the moment there is "in effect" and informal currency union in place between Scotland and the rUK. True, the BOE accepts Scottish assets in return for providing Scottish banks with £ liquidity. Under independence, the issue would become whether Scotland could generate enough £assets (they would not be able to simple print notes) and how they would be valued. Then comes the tricky question of how Scottish assets would be valued in practice.

Osbourne is correct to predict that an unofficial peg is likely to prove unsustainable. Of course, telling the truth leads to the obvious responses - see above and today's newspapers.

(Edit: Ducks, I have given you plenty of opportunity to respond to specific points I have made and am still waiting for the answers. You can hide behind the stressful tirades if you like, they won't get you anywhere though. Vladimir and Estragon would be only too happy to be put out of our misery)


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:51 am
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But most countries hold currency assets in other currencies - the UK has dollar assets, etc. So it's just the same as that - the only variation is that it might or might not involve a Scottish central bank.

Still, in the big scheme of things, no big deal.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:53 am
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Not quite Ben IMO, but I will let others explain. I am sure they are gagging to get back on topic!


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:55 am
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Okay, there are technical details which I'm sure are of interest to banking geeks.

However, Scottish bank notes are backed by some sort of asset, and that will continue after independence, so it'll be fine. Ironically, the biggest threat to the value of those assets would be if the rUK's economy worsened - Scotland's curency could be dragged down if it invests too much in Sterling assets.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 11:58 am
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In a new currency yes.

Bigger threat would be rising oil prices. Look what they did to Scottish and rUK I manufacturing exports in the 70s. Scotland already runs a BoT deficit with rUK. The last thing it needs is a strong independent currency (if that ever happens)


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 12:00 pm
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bencooper - Member

though I believe the person used a false name to protect their job.

Just out of interest, is that based on anything other than a guess?


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 12:05 pm
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The UK as a whole runs a deficit. The important figures are that Scotland generates 9.9% of revenues and receives 9.3% of spending.

Just out of interest, is that based on anything other than a guess?

It was reported that way in several online sources.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 12:16 pm
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Actually IMO the important figure with respect to pegging a Scottish pound (option D I believe) is the one given by the Scottish Gov ie, Scotland runs a trade deficit with rUK of 3-6% which makes the issue of £ assets quite important - as Osbourne pointed out (under oath 😉 ) yesterday.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 12:21 pm
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"Liar" - very nice.

Why do you use it and so many other terms towards AS then ?
yet another example of you not liking your own modus operandi but still attacking anyone who also objects
Anyone who has bothered to comment has done so against you - it must be all of us then - your good with these evidence based conclusions aren't you 😉
iS cannot just print another countries notes for a variety of reasons - some obvious some less so

Its an interesting one as whatever way you look at it the two economies are going to be so intertwined one going belly up will clearly affect the other. IMHO the two real issue are
1. what is the best way of mitigating this risk to both sides.
2. How do we deal with the asymmetrical risk as the larger economy can bale out the smaller one but not vice versa.

IMHO neither solution is brilliant and the two economies are heavily linked
Cooperation is best but I have no idea how to best achieve this


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:05 pm
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Scotland runs a trade deficit with rUK of 3-6%

Quite a lot of that is interest payments on the UK's debt. Another big wodge is paying for Trident.

The 9.3% vs 9.9% thing has another effect, though, related to deficits. When the UK's economy is in deficit (like now) then the UK borrows on the international markets, and gives 9.3% of that to Scotland. But Scotland pays 9.9% of the interest on the loans.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:16 pm
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No, interest payments are not included in trade stats. You will have to run me through the other numbers - I can't follow that one. I do not believe that the final point is correct, but may well be missing something.

Missed what my old mucker Paul Donovan said in the ft the other day

If the Scots want independence, they should of course become independent. [b]But on the issue of monetary union, economics must triumph over politics and nationalistic emotions if the problems of the Euro are to be avoided. [/b]Monetary unions need fiscal unions to survive, and this is not on the cards for a post-independence Scotland. The question Alex Salmond has to answer [b]is a simple one: can he give a single example of a democratic monetary union, for any mid-sized economy, that has survived in the absence of a fiscal union?[/b] There are two millennia of economic precedent to examine. [b]“No” is the answer.[/b]


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:23 pm
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[quote=Junkyard ]Cooperation is best but I have no idea how to best achieve this

Tricky. I wonder what they reckoned the best way to do that was 307 years ago?


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:24 pm
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"Liar" - very nice.

Why do you use it and so many other terms towards AS then ?

Salmond doesn't post on here. As far as I'm aware.

I could describe Nick Clegg as a worthless tosser, and I really wouldn't be bothered if someone called me the same, but if I called you a worthless tosser I would expect the mods to quite rightly have an opinion on the matter.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:25 pm
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Aracer +1

Ernie, very true. Odd that the mods seem perfectly happy for people to call each other liars though. Seems at odds with

The ethos of this forum must be one of mutual respect for everyone who uses it. You may argue and debate with anyone but when the argument becomes heated or abuse begins to creep in, then you will have crossed the line. If you don't step back from it then you will likely be moderated.

Perhaps calling someone a liar twice is deemed not to be abuse? Who knows?

With respect to AS -[b] he has lied repeatedly.[/b] The example I use every time is the one about the pound being an asset. So the proof is there. Funnily enough, the whole GO thing yesterday is all about the need to back liabilities with corresponding assets. No surprise that these guys got things correct (under oath). And no hint of a currency being an asset. I wonder why? Even less surprise that these facts were greeted by the 3Bs!


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:32 pm
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The World was a bit different 307 years ago, and it was more about wealthy Scottish investors who had lost everything in the Darien scheme than anything particular about the Scottish economy.

I've got an original copy of the 1699 book "A Defence of the Scots Settlement at Darien" - it's fascinating reading, though mostly it's a massive whinge about how the natives are annoying and the English won't trade with them 😀


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:34 pm
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With respect to AS - he has lied repeatedly. The example I use every time is the one about the pound being an asset

With respect to you, you use the word "asset" in a narrow economic sense that doesn't tally with what most people think of as an asset.

So you're both liars 😉


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 1:36 pm
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Ignorance is no excuse. And AS is an economist so he was doing it deliberately and with good effect as people swallow the untruth (see above) So by definition he is also a deceitful one. It's a clear are the waters in the Moray Firth.

Remember what it says on a bank note - "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of..." So it can only ever be a liability and only then under certain circumstances. Non-accountants get confused with creditors and debtors but still doesn't mean that folk should deliberately mislead the layman.

Lots of people think Edinburgh lies east of Carlisle but that doesn't make it true!

Anyway Ben, a bit of AS macro tutoring to do this afternoon. You have reminded me to go over the parts of the current and capital accounts. Just because lots of students get confused with them doesn't meant that we shouldn't help them score the correct marks in next weeks exam!!


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 2:34 pm
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Remember what it says on a bank note - "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of..."

Except that if you go into the Bank of England, hand over a £10 note and demand they pay you the promised amount, they'll give you another £10 note.

So that's not really a liability for the bank.

However, if you go into a shop, hand over a £10 note, they'll give you £10 worth of stock.

So it is an asset for you.

See, I can do economics too 😉


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 2:55 pm
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wonder what they reckoned the best way to do that was 307 years ago?

Was it the right to bear arms 😉 nothing gets outdated [ ok I am scrapping the barrel a bit and I did like that as a reply tbh]
if I called you a worthless tosser I would expect the mods to quite rightly have an opinion on the matter.

Nicely played ernie but i think you would get away with it anyway 😆
What a strange argument that you can use those words to describe someone but only if they are not here. Would any of you like to argue we can use racist terms as long as none of "them" are here? They are either offensive terms or they are not offensive terms, they are either ok terms or they are not ok terms- clealry they are not ok.
Its either ok to call someone a liar or it is not THM thinks it ok for him to do it but not for him to be called one.
With respect THM duckman believes you are a liar just as much as you believe that AS is one.
I suspect AS would also disagree with you as well re the lie claim - even if it was another lie

I am genuinely stunned you think it should be moderated out and amazed that after that you called him a liar again.

Well played Ben 😉

THM Wee eck knew what he was doing for sure.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 2:55 pm
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Except that if you go into the Bank of England, hand over a £10 note and demand they pay you the promised amount, they'll give you another £10 note.

So that's not really a liability for the bank.

However, if you go into a shop, hand over a £10 note, they'll give you £10 worth of stock.

So it is an asset for you.

See, I can do economics too

Indeed, I've read a few opinions from people who teach economics about why the classic view of currency as a liability is outdated/wrong today.

THM has also failed many times now to explain why currency wouldn't be an asset the same way a brand is an asset. It's reputation has value, otherwise we wouldn't be having arguments about it in the first place, so why is it not an asset under those terms?


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:00 pm
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Except that if you go into the Bank of England, hand over a £10 note and demand they pay you the promised amount, they'll give you another £10 note.

So that's not really a liability for the bank.

Well that's not correct at all but never mind. In fact the promise to pay the bearer stuff is a historical legacy and has no legal standing anymore. Perhaps that explains WNB first point.

WNB- i have explained it twice before, but get tired of repeating it. But if you want to disaggree then go and inform all the Central Banks around the world to change their accounts, their definitions and their policies. Since they are all wrong clearly. Failing that, go and have a look at the balance sheet of the BoE or the Federal Reserve and look where currency is - a tip, dont waste time looking on the asset side, much quicker to look in the other. You will find it by reserves!

BTW, where is the missing $?


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:10 pm
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Well that's not correct at all but never mind. In fact the promise to pay the bearer stuff is a historical legacy and has no legal standing anymore.

You're the one who brought it up to prove that the pound is a liability 😀


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:13 pm
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It still is but you cant exchange it for gold anymore!

Many also carried the words “or bearer” after the name of the depositor, which allowed them to circulate in a limited way. In 1694 the Bank of England was established in order to raise money for King William III’s war against France. Almost immediately the Bank started to issue notes in return for deposits. Like the goldsmiths’ notes, the crucial feature that made Bank of England notes a means of exchange was the promise to pay the bearer the sum of the note on demand. [b]This meant that the note could be redeemed at the Bank for gold or coinage by anyone presenting it for payment;[/b] if it was not redeemed in full, it was endorsed with the amount withdrawn.

From the Bank of England. The background and the fact that it is a liability (when in issue).

So if I want to go from Carlisle to Edinburgh I should keep going (north) east?!? Most people would say yes and only "narrow" geographers or cartographers would object. Who should you listen to? The masses or those with the skills and understanding of the facts.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:20 pm
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Ah, so you're advocating going back to the gold standard?


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:22 pm
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WNB- i have explained it twice before, but get tired of repeating it. But if you want to disaggree then go and inform all the Central Banks around the world to change their accounts, their definitions and their policies. Since they are all wrong clearly. Failing that, go and have a look at the balance sheet of the BoE or the Federal Reserve and look where currency is - a tip, dont waste time looking on the asset side, much quicker to look in the other. You will find it by reserves!

BTW, where is the missing $?

I have no idea what you mean by the missing $, I must of missed your reference to it way back when.

I must also have missed our repeated explanations of why a currency can't be viewed in the same way a brand can, due to the value it's reputation. I'm not looking to disagree, I'm not an economist, I'm just looking for an explanation. All I've seen is the question asked numerous times, but obviously missed all the answers.

[url= http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2012/03/is-modern-central-bank-money-a-liability.html ]Here's one link about the history of currency being a libilty[/url]


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:24 pm
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WNB - thats an interesting link. What it indicates is what i said first on a different but related thread. The asset/liability issue is in reality a red herring. It is more meaningful to think of it as neither in truth. If you have to use one then it is a liability (under certain circumstance) but it cannot, by definition, be an asset.

Of course, the DO is using this ambiguity very subtedly and with great effect. To the layman (as with many accounting defintions) it seems to have some characteristics of an asset. So he cleverly intermingles this as being a counter-item to UK debt. It isn't of course, and he knows that. Whatever else he is not a fool. But like Farrage he knows just how much manipulation and deceit the public will swallow. (Hence my analogy of the missing $). And to date, he has done that really rather well.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:38 pm
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Junkyard - lazarus
Its either ok to call someone a liar or it is not THM thinks it ok for him to do it but not for him to be called one.

I stand by the suggestion I made,but will moderate it to "falsify" in future...On the advice of the Mods.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:44 pm
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That really depends how you define it.

Goldsmith's notes were obviously a liability for the goldsmith - the goldsmith would have to produce gold for every note. Banknotes based on the gold standard fall under the same category. But banknotes now don't do that - their only value is in themselves.

So what makes one piece of paper "worth" £10 and a different piece of paper worth nothing? Why could I not write my own £10 notes?

Reputation. Sterling bank notes have a reputation behind them which means people trust them, and are happy to accept them in exchange for goods.

So they have a value, but they aren't a liability for the Bank of England, because the Bank does not have to hand over any gold.

What do you call something that has a value and isn't a liability? I'd call it an asset.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:46 pm
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Dare I say it, but I think you are mixing a few ideas up there Ben. The roles of currence eg, store of value, medium of exchange etc are different to the fact that they are liabilities. But 16:00 tutorial now, so I will leave you to it!


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:52 pm
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A currency is merely a representation of money, it gets a "reputation" in two contexts. First, "Sterling" is often used loosely as shorthand for the economic performance/reliability of the UK in managing its finances. Second, the true "value" of sterling is that it is highly liquid because it is currency predominately used in one of the biggest economies in the world. As a result, there is lots of it about and therefore people are happy to invest in sterling denominated assets as the frictional costs of converting them into other assets are tiny. Currencies in smaller currencies don't have the same liquidity and costs increase. Scotland in seeking independence is essentially separating itself from the large economy and therefore cannot expect to benefit from the liquidity it provides.


 
Posted : 15/05/2014 3:55 pm
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The proposed date of Scottish independence should be delayed if it is not in the best interests of the rest of the UK, a House of Lords report has said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27424993

An unelected bunch of people* dictating the terms of independence to an elected government after a democratic referendum? Not at all worrying?

*The House of Lords is the second largest legislature in the World, after the Chinese Politburo.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:35 am
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and just as representative


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:41 am
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Mr Cameron told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme that he would "stick absolutely" to the terms of the Edinburgh Agreement

I wonder how many yes voters know exactly what that means? 😉


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:43 am
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It does agree to do what is in the best interests of the whole UK- is that what you mean 😛


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:47 am
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I wonder how many yes voters know exactly what that means?

Those of us who have been paying attention know that that could be an interesting problem.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:50 am
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[quote=bencooper ]Those of us who have been paying attention

Well done 🙂

I'd love to see the whole of the direct quotation, but my immediate though was that he knows exactly what he means by that - the use of the word "absolutely" being the giveaway. I doubt there is any advantage to be gained for BT by spelling it out, and clearly yS aren't going to.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:53 am
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Clarification required for the dumb troll please - I only read it once and i have definitely not been paying attention 😉


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:56 am
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Perhaps optimistically, the Yes side is probably relying on the "in good faith" bit of the Edinburgh Agreement. Perhaps not the best idea when you're dealing with a Tory politician 😉

Really, though, is there any way the Westminster government could turn around after a Yes vote and say "sorry, you're not getting independence as it's not in the best interests of the UK"?


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 11:56 am
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Really, though, is there any way the Westminster government could turn around after a Yes vote and say "sorry, you're not getting independence as it's not in the best interests of the UK"?

None,but the real games will go on during the negotiations. It would probably take the life of a Government and so would be a vote winner in a general election.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:02 pm
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This is true - "Vote for us and we'll be bigger ****s in the independence negotiations than the other guys"


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:06 pm
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[quote=bencooper ]Really, though, is there any way the Westminster government could turn around after a Yes vote and say "sorry, you're not getting independence as it's not in the best interests of the UK"?

I doubt very much they will do that, but I'd suggest that any idea that Sir BS is going to get the terms he wants is incredibly optimistic. Which brings us back neatly to the title of this thread.

JY - in summary it says that any independence negotiation will only happen taking into account the best interests of the rest of the UK, and that as Ben points out even given a yes vote the UK government is not obliged to give independence if suitable agreement can't be reached. Not that ridiculous a position to take, as otherwise Sir BS could demand whatever terms he wanted.

In reality as has been pointed out multiple times on this thread there will be a certain amount of pragmatism - just as it would do iS credibility no good to refuse to take on any debt, it would do UK government no good to be totally intransigent.

Hmm, clearly I've been getting too involved in this as when trying to find the direct quote I got "You've now read three articles in the last four weeks. Register to access three more articles for free, a total of six every four weeks." when acessing http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cameron-makes-strong-vow-to-legislate-more-powers-for-holyrood-in-first-yea.1400232636 - though here's a similar article I can read http://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2014/05/16/pm-makes-positive-case-for-uk/


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:06 pm
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Yup - Scotland will enter into a debt-sharing union in return for being in a currency-sharing union 😉

There are a few red lines. Trident is going, the only question is how quickly. Osborne is trying to convince people that "no currency union" is a red line, but lots of people don't believe him. Apart from that, everything is up for negotiation and compromise.

That "positive case for the UK" thing. Cameron keeps saying it, others on the No side keep saying it. "We're making the positive case for the Union" - every time I hear it, my response is "Well, you've got a big microphone in front of you, go on then."

Just [i]saying[/i] you're making a positive case isn't the same as actually making a positive case. He seems to be hoping that if he says he's made a positive case often enough, no-one will notice that he hasn't.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:14 pm
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Ben AS has said nukes are not up for negotiations though i dont believe that either - Leasing land to rUK so it is not in Scotland is my guess there.
Ah I knew that bit - I even deleted a post saying that 🙄 - but i had not considered anyone using it to ignore a democratic vote or spinning it that way

Would they risk it with the nukes being in Scotland 😉

there will be a certain amount of pragmatism

I vote for duckman and THM to thrash it out 😈

I would love to be a fly on the wall with wee eck and CMD negotiating 😯


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:14 pm
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Perhaps optimistically, the Yes side is probably relying on the "in good faith" bit of the Edinburgh Agreement. Perhaps not the best idea when you're dealing with a Tory politician

Wildly optimistic interpretation, and representation to the electorate, of in "good faith" is I think the issue. The idea that Scotland has this moral ownership of certain assets is quite naïve. Scotland wants to leave the UK, that means you leave on the UKs terms and most likely you leave a lot of things behind which you believe or hope might be "yours". I posted before don't think of things as being assets which Scotland owns but rather services which Scotland rents by payment of tax, as soon as the tax payments stop you lose access to them.

As for the 9.9 vs 9.3 revenue stuff that's all about how Oil is accounted for again isn't it ?

On a separate point I saw a regional wealth survey which showed Scotland to be amongst the very poorest parts of the UK on a per head basis. This suggests to me quite strongly that Scotland is supported by the wealth and taxes of other parts of the UK, in fact mostly by the wealthy predominantly English in the South East. It also says to me Scotland would be a somewhat impoverished independent nation.

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/15/britains-richest-1-percent-own-same-as-bottom-55-population ]Regional Wealth[/url]

EDIT: In my view good faith means we will try and reach a solution, it doesn't mean agreeing to the other side's view of being "fair"


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:16 pm
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There's been some discussion over what legal power the agreement actually has, not much seems to be the answer, but of course, that doesnt mean that it's useless.

The acting in good faith and in the best interests of lines apply to both the people of the UK and of Scotland, so I wouldn't count on those particular lines holding much sway in any debate.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:18 pm
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[quote=bencooper ]Yup - Scotland will enter into a debt-sharing union in return for being in a currency-sharing union

I think that is covered by

[quote=aracer ]I'd suggest that any idea that Sir BS is going to get the terms he wants is incredibly optimistic.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:20 pm
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Neither side gets everything they want in a negotiation but yes wee ecks is the most fanciful. I am still not convinced that they wont negotiate re currency though as rUK is stuffed if iS goes under so they have to "prop it up/bail out/support/ whatever" even if only for self interests - see Ireland for an example of this.

Scotland wants to leave the UK, that means you leave on the UKs terms

Yes that is exactly how separation works be it a marriage a union or a business partnership splitting


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:21 pm
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Well, yes. The rUK is under no obligation to enter into a currency union, Scotland is under no obligation to share the debt.

Both moves could have negative consequences for the respective countries, which is why things need to be negotiated in detail.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:22 pm
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Posted : 16/05/2014 12:23 pm
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[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:24 pm
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Well, yes. The rUK is under no obligation to enter into a currency union, Scotland is under no obligation to share the debt.

And UK is under no obligation to give you independence - as a reserved issue it still has to be voted on by the entirety of Parliament in westminster remember, and therefore the deal on the table has to be palatable to the elected representatives of the whole UK, not just Scotland

You can harp on all you like about 'obligations' and legal duties' - Westminster can trump you on them every single time!


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:29 pm
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This suggests to me quite strongly that Scotland is supported by the wealth and taxes of other parts of the UK, in fact mostly by the wealthy predominantly English in the South East.

yeah...just because sainsburys and tesco are located in the south east and pay their tax there, it doesn't mean the wealth is generated and tax burden is accumulated only in the SE.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:30 pm
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Sure, Westminster [i]could[/i] do that, but it'd be diplomatic suicide - refusing to accept the democratic will of the people in a referendum?


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:31 pm
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[quote=bencooper ]Scotland is under no obligation to share the debt.

That's the point I think you'll find the UK "stick absolutely" to the EA. It's not as if Sir BS can claim the moral high ground on that issue.

Ben - so where is the line? Is there no demand so unreasonable that the will of the people must not be ignored? I'm not sure it's quite as simple as you suggest.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:33 pm
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Sure, Westminster could do that, but it'd be diplomatic suicide

Exactly the same comment that has been laid against the SNP's denial of an obligation/refusal to burden their share of the debt in the event of Westminster refusing a currency union!


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:34 pm
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@Junkyard - the UK's contribution to the Ireland bail out was fairly small and driven largely by political considerations and the fact the RBS in particular had huge exposure to the country.

@ben - I don't think Scotland leaving the Pound makes much difference to the UK really.

I know we've discussed this a bit before but what is Scotland going to do about a financial system, it won't have any banks ? We'd love for you to have RBS and BOS back but that is going to be impossible to achieve.

Sure, Westminster could do that, but it'd be diplomatic suicide - refusing to accept the democratic will of the people in a referendum?

I think being seen to be tough on Scotland, including refusing to accept the "democratic will of Scotland" might actually be a very big vote winner in the UK. What happens if the vote is 51/49 ? It wouldn't be an overwhelming show of "will" would it ? That could easily impact the negotiations.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:35 pm
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Is there no demand so unreasonable that the will of the people must not be ignored?

That's both the best and the worst thing about democracy - whatever the people want goes, even if the people are morons 😉

In this case, I don't think the demands an independent Scotland would have are unreasonable. We don't want to host another country's nukes, we want a share of the assets we've paid for with our taxes, we're happy to contribute to a share of the debts the UK ran up.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:40 pm
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[quote=bencooper ]In this case, I don't think the demands an independent Scotland would have are unreasonable. We don't want to host another country's nukes, we want a share of the assets we've paid for with our taxes, we're happy to contribute to a share of the debts the UK ran up.

You're right, none of those seem unreasonable and so long as it stays that way [s]everybody[/s] most people will be happy. You only start getting into problems with suggestions like the one just above and thinking things are assets which aren't - though I'm sure a professional economist won't have that difficulty when in negotiations with other knowledgeable people rather than when making grand claims to the ignorant 😉


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 12:47 pm
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we want a share of the assets we've paid for with our taxes

@ben 1) you are renting the assets or 2) you are still paying for them. When you stop paying the rent/loan the assets return to the owner. This concept you've paid for stuff and already own it is an example of your (and SNP ?) interpretation of "good faith"

Perhaps Faslane will not be Scottish territory ? Leased to the UK for 100 years like HK was or perhaps carved out of an independent Scotland altogether, like Gibralter ? Latter unlikely but possible. I'd rather see the nuke's decommissioned but I suspect their is a long term agreement (with NATO) to retain them, it may just to easier to move them elsewhere. Whatever the cost I don't see it being worth the trouble of trying to keep them in Scotland.


 
Posted : 16/05/2014 1:15 pm
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