Nigel! Farage!

I think Reform are really scraping the barrel to get the numbers of candidates, this can only backfire on them.  I'm in Midlothian and the Reform candidate for the GE had very little information available on him.  All I could find was that he was a Polish immigrant, not exactly your stereotypical Reform type.  If they do manage to get decent numbers of councillors or MP's it'll show them up for what they are, we shouldn't underestimate them but we should give them enough rope to hang themselves.  With the state the Tories are in then this might leave some grown ups in charge.

Posted by: PrinceJohn

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What is it about Reform that attracts Saville fans, Hitler fans and fans of not doing any actual work? 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g2qxr79gdo

I wasn't sure whether to post that link or not, as it doesn't really give any details as to why he couldn't do his duties. He might be a lazy shit, he might have just had a cancer diagnosis. 

Tice was feeling the heat on QT last night. A lot in the audience in the "give them a chance, the other parties have been rubbish" camp and a lot in the "given the success of Brexit, you'd better have a plan this time" camp.

Also interesting that a few folk referring to Brexit as imposing tariffs on ourselves, which I think may be the kind of language that might explain the effects to the hard of thinking now they've seen the Trump disaster. Farages links to Trump and apeing of Trump policies on things like DOGE are a weak point for Reform.

All I could find was that he was a Polish immigrant, not exactly your stereotypical Reform type. 

On the contrary, I associate East Europeans who come from societies which lack cultural and ethnic diversity with high levels of intolerance and bigotry.

And let's be fair the Reform UK party chairman, Muhammad Ziauddin Yusuf, doesn't exactly have the sort of name which you would automatically associate with a Nigel Farage ally.

Not forgetting that very recently we have had two Home Secretaries, Priti Patel and Suella Braverman, who were both children of immigrants, that had particularly hostile attitudes towards asylum seekers and immigrants. One was actually the daughter of asylum seekers and openly admitted that the policies which she championed would have prevented her parent's successful asylum application.

I am afraid that race and ethnicity is no barrier to being an arsehole.

Like it or not, Farage is the most successful UK politician of the last 15 years.

That obviously reflects very badly on us as an electorate

While there is a lot of that to be depressed about, it’s also a reflection on how Farage (or those around him) successfully weaponised social media during the referendum campaign to target messaging, at times using some seriously dubious methods.

All while the established parties thought they were at the cutting edge if they had a website they updated once every few weeks.

Not much has changed in that respect. Loads of those in Westminster still don’t get it at all and don’t understand this pesky (not even) new world. Farage does. He’s literally years ahead of them

On the contrary, I associate East Europeans who come from societies which lack cultural and ethnic diversity with high levels of intolerance and bigotry.

Exactly, isn't Poland one of the most racists countries (although not sure how it is measured) so perfect for Reform, especially as they are experts at ignoring hypocrisy and massive holes in their arguments.

I read that in y part of the world one of Nigel’s councillors has decided that the thought of having to work is too much and has resigned already. So we now have to have a bye election. Not sure how that fits with Nigel’s reducing wasteful spending mantra. 

Like it or not, Farage is the most successful UK politician of the last 15 years.

In terms of headlines, outrage and reaction yes. 

In terms of “actually making things better for people”, not so much

i don't deny his impact, but challenge that as a measure of success 

I think Reform are really scraping the barrel to get the numbers of candidates

On the contrary I've think they've gone out of their way to select candidates most attractive to their target supporters.

Not forgetting that very recently we have had two Home Secretaries, Priti Patel and Suella Braverman, who were both children of immigrants, that had particularly hostile attitudes towards asylum seekers and immigrants.

"Pull the ladder up I can swim".

On the contrary I've think they've gone out of their way to select candidates most attractive to their target supporters.

They clearly haven't done a lot of research into prospective candidates, like I said, scraping the barrel.

On the contrary I've think they've gone out of their way to select candidates most attractive to their target supporters.

They clearly haven't done a lot of research into prospective candidates, like I said, scraping the barrel.

Mate of mine worked with him on panels, speech circuits etc and commented that he'd never met such a brittle and deeply insecure person, constantly in need of reassurance and flattery. A good chance that the wheels will come off in the next 4 years.

Now that it’s expanding to include other people who may steal some of his limelight, and going off past record, It’s definitely worth a bet that the Reform Party and Farage will no longer be one of the same thing by the next general election.

If, as rumoured, Cruella joins them this week, it’ll be interesting to see how Nige copes with another inflammatory, press-savvy, publicity-hungry attention-seeker

All these ‘parties’ are ultimately just a vehicle for his enormous fragile ego and his need to be worshipped by half-wits. They all end the same way. Nige doesn’t do collegiate. Nige does dictatorships, with him at the helm

It’s definitely worth a bet that the Reform Party and Farage will no longer be one of the same thing by the next general election.

I was wondering recently if you were still sticking to your prediction that Reform UK won't still be around by the time of the next general election binners.

Are you now saying that Reform will be but Nigel Farage won't be their leader?

I won't deny that Reform don't have much of the necessary criteria for a stable political base but right now it is difficult to paint them in a dire declining state. 

In the last 10 months they have more than doubled their level of support and they are now making inroads into area where before they had little support, such as Scotland.

Pretty much every single opinion poll now either puts Reform in the lead or joint first. And this lead is now becoming a double digit lead, I can't remember the last time any party had a double digit lead.

So there is very little evidence that their bubble is closed to bursting and plenty of evidence that the political ground is currently extremely fertile for them.

Consequently I think it requires a remarkable leap of faith to believe that the Reform/Farage axis will come crashing down within the next 48 months.

Care for a pastry-based bet then comrade? 

I’ll wager you a twenty quid Gregg’s gift card that Farage and Reform are no longer one of the same by the next election.

Nige will still be there, as he always is, but the present incarnation of Reform, if it still exists, will be sans man-frog.

The other thing there is that without frog-face, Reform will implode, in the same way all his other vehicles have.

Posted by: ratherbeintobago

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The other thing there is that without frog-face, Reform will implode, in the same way all his other vehicles have.

So both Nigel Farage and Reform will be gone before the next general election?

Has anyone told Keir Starmer? 

commented that he'd never met such a brittle and deeply insecure person,

A narcissist like his "friend" Trump.

Apparently his EU Parliament attendance is 745 out of 746. The only chap with worse attendance was from Ireland, had a stroke and was medically incapable.

Posted by: Sandwich

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Apparently his EU Parliament attendance is 745 out of 746. The only chap with worse attendance was from Ireland, had a stroke and was medically incapable.

More currently,  are stats available for UK Parliament attendance? Or constituency attendance?

Posted by: Steve

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Posted by: Sandwich

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Apparently his EU Parliament attendance is 745 out of 746. The only chap with worse attendance was from Ireland, had a stroke and was medically incapable.

More currently,  are stats available for UK Parliament attendance? Or constituency attendance?

 

Might be tricky, I found this FOI request... (TLDR: This information is not held by the House of Commons.)

https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/freedom-of-information/information-we-already-publish/house-of-commons-publication-scheme/members-and-members-staff/attendance-2024/

Didn't he say he wasn't going to do constituency surgerys due to "security concerns"?

Apparently his EU Parliament attendance is 745 out of 746

Erm... that's good isn't it?

Posted by: slowoldman

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Didn't he say he wasn't going to do constituency surgerys due to "security concerns"?

Apparently his EU Parliament attendance is 745 out of 746

Erm... that's good isn't it?

That's his ranking, next to bottom

Posted by: slowoldman

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Didn't he say he wasn't going to do constituency surgerys due to "security concerns"?

Apparently his EU Parliament attendance is 745 out of 746

Erm... that's good isn't it?

It was worded badly...

analysis of the MEP voting records places Farage 745th out of 746 MEPs on the register - with only Brian Crowley, a MEP in Ireland who has NEVER voted, below him.

EDIT: A fall from a building left Mr Crowley paralysed from the waist down when he was 16 years old. So I guess he gets a pass, what's farrages excuse?

what's farrages excuse?

That he’s a bone idle bastard with zero interest in doing the job he’s being paid to do and who loses interest in everything the second the cameras aren’t on

A self-serving cockwomble

Posted by: ernielynch

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It’s definitely worth a bet that the Reform Party and Farage will no longer be one of the same thing by the next general election.

I was wondering recently if you were still sticking to your prediction that Reform UK won't still be around by the time of the next general election binners.

Are you now saying that Reform will be but Nigel Farage won't be their leader?

I won't deny that Reform don't have much of the necessary criteria for a stable political base but right now it is difficult to paint them in a dire declining state. 

In the last 10 months they have more than doubled their level of support and they are now making inroads into area where before they had little support, such as Scotland.

Pretty much every single opinion poll now either puts Reform in the lead or joint first. And this lead is now becoming a double digit lead, I can't remember the last time any party had a double digit lead.

So there is very little evidence that their bubble is closed to bursting and plenty of evidence that the political ground is currently extremely fertile for them.

Consequently I think it requires a remarkable leap of faith to believe that the Reform/Farage axis will come crashing down within the next 48 months.

Remember the sdp and otherbubbles.  Identical trajectories. 

Uk politucs is full of byelection wonder wins thar go nowhere

Remember the sdp and otherbubbles. Identical trajectories. 

"Identical" trajectory? Certainly not.

Reform is currently leading in all recent opinion polls and their lead this week actually hit double digits. All the evidence is that if there was a general election tomorrow they would in all likelihood be the largest party. I am fairly confident that the SDP never led in one single opinion poll.

And it would be extraordinarily naive to compare the UK political climate over 40 years ago which was relatively stable and predictable with the current political crisis which has gripped the UK, Europe, and the United States. The former certainties are no longer certain and we are entering uncharted political territory.

I make no predictions btw, I just try to gauge likely probabilities based on available evidence.

Edit : Btw the SDP did survive the duration of the parliament and in the 1983 general election the Alliance very effectively helped Margret Thatcher to secure a landslide victory, despite the fact that the combined Labour Alliance vote easily exceeded the Tory vote. So even if history repeats itself "identically" it's not great news, unless you are a Tory.

Posted by: mattyfez

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EDIT: A fall from a building left Mr Crowley paralysed from the waist down when he was 16 years old. So I guess he gets a pass

Why? Sounds like he was riding the gravy train even harder than the Man-Frog.

Ernie 

reform are splitting the right-wing vote so will help Labour as happened at the GE

So you think that Reform will be around at the next general election then?

Yes it is possible that Reform will have the same effect as they had last general election but that seems unlikely as support for Labour has collapsed since then, and all the evidence suggests a low probability that Labour will recover anytime soon.

Generally when a party wins a landslide victory their support falls in the following general election, in fact I can't think of a postwar example where that didn't happen.

So Labour have their work cut out if they are to buck the trend and secure at the next general election at least the 34% they achieved in 2024. They best start off getting rid of Starmer and McSweeney.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/reform-record-10-point-lead-over-labour-farage-3685725

And this imo is the single most important claim made in that article  :

However, he added: “You can’t argue with the trend"

Whatever differences the polls might have they all agree on one thing - the trend. And that trend has not changed for the last 10 months, nor are there any obvious signs that it is likely to anytime soon.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/09/reform-farage-kill-off-tories-ridiculous-byelections

The trend.  Reform splitting the rightwing vote.   Labour losing votes to lib dems, national parties and greens

I see a dozen of the new reform councillors are currently under investigation for sharing tweets(etc) on Islamophobia and far right material from the far right group 'Britain First'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/10/reform-uk-councillors-face-allegations-sharing-far-right-islamophobic-content

Posted by: dyna-ti

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I see a dozen of the new reform councillors are currently under investigation for sharing tweets(etc) on Islamophobia and far right material from the far right group 'Britain First'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/10/reform-uk-councillors-face-allegations-sharing-far-right-islamophobic-content

No one saw that coming. 

Farage is on his third political party. How long is it before Reform collapses, like the other two?

(Richard Murphy)

It's a rare day in British politics when the voice of reason is Simon Jenkins 

Indeed.  I hardly ever agree with him

 Labour losing votes to lib dems, national parties and greens

You're really not paying attention are you ?!?

Firstly support for the LibDems has barely changed since last year's general election, have a look at the graph below in the latest opinion poll which gives Reform a 10% lead, you will see that LibDem support is at 13% and quite stable, the LibDems got 12% at the last general election.

Secondly you will see that despite a 5% drop in support for the Tories since the general election the drop in support of Labour is far greater, 13%

The reason for this is that despite Reform taking a lot of support from the Tories the Tories are making up for a lot of their losses by taking support from Labour.

Granted the Greens have more than doubled their support since the general election which is undoubtedly at Labour's expense but their 5% increase isn't explained by Labour's 13% loss.

Labour are losing support to everyone but probably most of all to the Tories. Your claim should be that Labour are losing votes to the Tories, the Greens, Reform, the LibDems, and national parties, that would be more accurate 💡

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/reform-record-10-point-lead-over-labour-farage-3685725

You're really not paying attention are you ?!?

Hey, I've got an idea! Why don't you try not being a condescending knob occasionally?

Labour are losing support to everyone but probably most of all to the Tories.

Nope. Mostly to the LibDems.

Posted by: kelvin

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Nope. Mostly to the LibDems.

Condescending or otherwise, you could at least show your working 🙂

Ernie shows a chart and gives a detailed explanation, a response of "nope" isn't really all that convincing tbh.

Read the polling data.

eg.

I’ve been watching the polling data. Labour have been losing people who voted for them in 2024 to, in order of scale of shift… LibDem, Green, Reform, Tory. It’s narrowed between the four this month, was much more predominately LibDem before the last few published polls.

LibDems have been losing more support to Reform than they’ve been gaining from Labour hence their polling staying flat.

Tories losing to Reform in a big way.

a detailed explanation

Lot of words. Just an opinion stated.

It seems avoiding doing your job is a requirement for representing Reform

BBC News - New councillor Andrew Hamilton-Gray revealed as sacked policeman - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cre9z20x0r3o

Sounds like a perfect fit for Reform.

Posted by: Matthew Hornby

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You're really not paying attention are you ?!?

Hey, I've got an idea! Why don't you try not being a condescending knob occasionally?

Because I'm talking to TJ and that's how I talk to him.

TJ is perfectly capable of speaking for himself, I think it is rather condescending if you feel that you have to speak on his behalf, ironically.

And yes, I don't think TJ pays sufficient attention as he is clearly obsessed with Scottish politics at the expense of wider UK politics.