Is it expensive in a world of high inflation? You bet.
How, it'll cost the 'same' as it did the previous year.
The problem for Johnson is that he still has to face the Parliamentary Standards Committee and the fact he knowingly lied about the parties in Downing Street in the House.
If the Tories attempt to rule for the next two years with no mandate and legitimacy for their policies and Prime Minister they can be certain of total wipe-out when the general election eventually comes, if not huge societal unrest during the interim period.
The biggest issue there is "the next two years" they know they're going to be a gargantuan mess and whoever takes on the mantle will be blamed for that.
The majority of the electorate wouldn't give a damn about the legitimacy within a few weeks if things got better, which of course they won't.
To be honest I wouldn't be half surprised if the reluctance call a GE is in part because SKS will end up in number 10, he's too centrist and when he falls flat (as I think anyone would currently) it risks salting the middle ground, that's as bad if not worse for much of the parliamentary tory party as it would be for Labour. I think they'd have been happy to hand the reins to Corbyn at this point.
For his own part I can't see Boris taking the job back any time soon, it's very obvious doing so wouldn't help brand bozza, and if there's one thing he's good at, it's looking after him.
The only way I can see the Tories replacing Liz Truss without that sort of pressure to go to the country would be to reinstall Johnson as PM. They could reasonably argue that he has a personal mandate which no one else has so a general election would not be necessary.
I'm not sure who in the country supports Johnson over Truss outside the members that voted for either as leader?
The majority of the electorate wouldn’t give a damn about the legitimacy within a few weeks if things got better, which of course they won’t.
Well that's precisely the point - things won't get better.
The biggest fallback an unpopular government can have is the claim that they have a mandate and that people voted for their policies, Thatcher was able to fully exploit that claim, as a dire situation got even more dire.
This current Tory government, and any subsequent non-Johnson Tory governments before a general election, don't and wouldn't have any such a fallback.
Whilst they could technically carry on governing it would simply guarantee that a deeply unpopular government would become even more unpopular. It provides no solution for the Tories.
The only way I can see the Tories replacing Liz Truss without that sort of pressure to go to the country would be to reinstall Johnson as PM.
I said this yesterday. Johnson is the only one who can claim to have any sort of mandate and is the only one with any support base. He'll also be able to wipe the slate clean by claiming the high ground that his party were wrong to get rid of him in the first place and will put it down as a moment of madness. They won't bring him back though because tory MPs will never be humble enough to admit their mistake. Instead they'll stumble on with Truss or try to resist an election with someone like Hunt by claiming that we're in a crisis and an election would only make it worse. An election next spring is my bet.
There is absolutely no danger of Johnston coming back. Is there anything about his past history or character that suggests he would willing come back to face the Brexit / Covid / Cakeism chickens coming home to roost?
I think he much rather likes the idea that people want him to come back rather than coming back. It will allow to claim he could have sorted it all but alas he wasn't allowed to. Sort of like a past football manager - fans love the thought of them coming back but the smart ones never do and it allows them to become "legends".
How, it’ll cost the ‘same’ as it did the previous year.
the inflation figure they peg to is related to cost of goods and services. Tax take is related to earnings (income tax), costs of goods/services (vat\import duty\corporation tax) and a few odds and ends (fuel\booze duty etc), all of which are in line with general economic growth
Only one of those areas is increasing in line with inflation - so the tax take won't grow at the same rate that pensions do if they're pegged to the rate of inflation - pensions will start consuming a bigger amount that'd need to be funded with either borrowing or cuts elsewhere.
It's being reported that Graham Bradey has told Truss that the traditional limit of letters for a VOC has been reached, but he's insisting on letters from half the parliamentary party.
Is there anything about his past history or character that suggests he would willing come back to face the Brexit / Covid / Cakeism chickens coming home to roost?
Are we talking about the same person? Johnson doesn't do "facing" stuff.
Politics for Johnson is a vehicle for his ego. It's a stage. He will always want to be in the limelight.
It's about proving how much better he is than his Eton chums and getting one over other Bullingdon Club boys like David Cameron. It's what's instilled in them at Eton.
Of course he wants to return triumphantly, it's just that his Churchillian Wilderness Years were suppose to last longer than two months.
It’s being reported that Graham Bradey has told Truss that the traditional limit of letters for a VOC has been reached, but he’s insisting on letters from half the parliamentary party.
Makes sense as that way he avoids having to have an actual vote, instead creates the sitiuation where she's lost the VOC without needing to change the rules to have one.
Politics for Johnson is a vehicle for his ego. It’s a stage. He will always want to be in the limelight.
He'll be torn between being hailed as the returning hero sticking one to the MPs who stupidly got rid of him, and taking on Truss's shitstorm and having to carry the can when the inevitable defeat occurs whenever they have an election. We all know he's a lazy f***** so I reckon it's pretty nailed on that he won't want to come back and have to deal with all this crap. He'll want them to lose the next election as revenge for booting him out and then beg him to come back.
he’s insisting on letters from half the parliamentary party.
That moves the bar significantly. It is currently 15% or 54 letters, half of the parliamentary party would mean about 180 letters.
If the recent poll of Tory Party members is correct and the majority now want her to go then it is hard to believe that the parliamentary party, which never liked her as much as the membership anyway, won't muster enough opposition to her leadership.
It would appear to be simply delaying the inevitable, which is presumably why the Chairman of the 1922 Committee took that decision.
The only reason I can imagine that Tory MPs might be more reluctant than the membership to oust Truss is the thought of losing their jobs in an inevitable early general election.
Edit: It is inconceivable that if the total amount of letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee only reached, say a 160, that Liz Truss could carry on with so much opposition from within her own party. Sir Graham Brady must be very confident that the 50% threshold will be reached.
Rumours last night we’re that Graham had received well over 100 letters already
The BBC are presently running through the many many promises and assurances that Liz has made in the last 3 weeks that have now been jettisoned.
There’s a lot of them. It covers pretty much everything she’s said, barring bankers bonuses
****. I've just realised that I won't be able to watch PMQs at midday. Gutted 😢
Sir Graham Brady must be very confident that the 50% threshold will be reached.
I think he's probably confident in his ability to ensure it is, when the time comes.
Of course he wants to return triumphantly, it’s just that his Churchillian Wilderness Years were suppose to last longer than two months.
Have to agree with this. Of course he wants a come back. Never say never. But I don't think he'll get an opportunity quite yet. They'll have to find someone else first... from the scraps they have left in the parliamentary party... probably shouldn't have thrown out anyway unwilling to back Johnson and his oven ready deal with a personal pledge in 2019. That there are so few likely candidates to replace his replacement is entirely Johnson's own doing. That worked for him personally for a while, but it's properly buggered up his party.
He’ll want them to lose the next election as revenge for booting him out and then beg him to come back.
Although the problem with this is that Johnson will almost certainly lose his seat in the next election so that will change the calculus if he gets the chance to return.
I’ve just realised that I won’t be able to watch PMQs at midday. Gutted 😢
I think you'll find a copy of gaddafis final hours on YouTube, it won't be much different.
I’ve just realised that I won’t be able to watch PMQs at midday. Gutted 😢
Me too. I'll have it on pause on the sky news site and will press play as soon as I can get people to stop talking about DNS changes!
Surely this is a very daft move by the whips?
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1582672374369226753?t=dAkBQot4K0alrJpZ1bjQ2Q&s=19
Plenty of Tory MPs are compromised on this...
Eg
I’ve just realised that I won’t be able to watch PMQs at midday. Gutted 😢
Odds on her not turning up to it?!
Surely this is a very daft move by the whips?
I'm almost ready to believe that we can vote Craig Whittaker out at the next election. Not quite there yet... but the hope is building. Binding himself hard to the project to save both Truss and the Fracking agenda can only help with that.... surely?
What the Tory's are really squirming over now is how to eject Truss and install a fresh puppet (ideally one the MPs choose) and avoid having to seek a fresh mandate via a GE, if they don't it's the damage it does to public opinion and future election prospects in the long term they need to deal with, there's a limit to how much you can bluff all of this BS out with the plebs and that's dawning on them now...
I expect there's varying levels of acceptance within party that the Tory's are destined for a stint in opposition no matter what now. It's really a question of biting the bullet and calling a GE now, or cling on, prop up Truss for another 18-24 months potentially damaging themselves even further.
Truss could choose to force the issue, she could decide to call a GE as leader (she knows she'd lose), or choose to give her notice, triggering yet another leadership run-off and more than likely a GE in ~March/april 2023(?). The one sliver of "power" she really has at present is what sort of reign of destruction/timescales she gets to preside over for the Conservative government. But even that is a fast closing window, Graham Brady could well pop by later and tell her she's done... She either jumps in the next few days or they finally push her... This all feels oddly familiar doesn't it? 🙂
Although the problem with this is that Johnson will almost certainly lose his seat in the next election so that will change the calculus if he gets the chance to return.
The Tory MP we can't talk about as he's under investigation for sexual assault has a very safe seat that would vote Johnson back in a heartbeat, were it to become free
Surely this is a very daft move by the whips?
Choose Truss or be thrown from the sinking ship? I'm not entirely sure that's any more or less of a choice than previously. At least with the whip removed they might have a very public platform for campaigning on, in areas where the policy is hugely devisive, should it come to it.
I expect there’s varying levels of acceptance within party that the Tory’s are destined for a stint in opposition no matter what now. It’s really a question of biting the bullet and calling a GE now, or cling on, prop up Truss for another 18-24 months potentially damaging themselves even further.
That's how I see it.
But reading you say it, has made me think... perhaps she already WANTS to resign right now, but they can't let her, 'till they've worked out what happens next? Is she trapped in there for now? I'll be watching her with that in mind now... is she currently a hostage in a situation of her own making? Is it that lack of quick escape that's breaking her just as much, if not more, than the realisation that she's already hit the ground? And hit it hard, full faceplant.
or they keep her a prisoner in the job for the winter, as a lightning rod for all the flack that is mounting, and try some kind of relaunch with a new leader next spring.
Sounds highly likely. Now I almost feel sorry for her. But I'll save that sympathy for others this winter.
I read that whips fracking letter as "Quadrilla have paid us A LOT of money for this and Somerset Investments have hung their arse out on it, too"
There was some analysis I saw last night , thet basically the erg group, and the "one nation" group (who are being labelled as moderates FFS), are both unsure that they would win, and want to be more confident before launching their bids with whatever candidates they can muster.
So usual torie shit, crippled by a failed ideology and power lust, the interests of the country come a long way down their list of priorities..
I am still surprised more blue clowns have not crossed the floor.
Is she going to appear?
I expect there’s varying levels of acceptance within party that the Tory’s are destined for a stint in opposition no matter what now. It’s really a question of biting the bullet and calling a GE now, or cling on, prop up Truss for another 18-24 months potentially damaging themselves even further.
I still think the 'least damaging' option for them is a VoNC in Truss, a speedy leadership election in the parliamentary party which I think this time would be Hunt or Sunak (Hunt with Sunak as chancellor or vice versa?) with the other pulling out before it goes into the 3-months of dithering with the membership. Then 'do nothing' until the fixed term is up, and by 'do nothing' I mean roll back all those controversial policies like Rwanda, and only implement enough "austerity" as you'd expect them to do under the circumstances.
Basically try and salvage some reputation for competent government by the "one nation" moderate end of the party with the ERG and other hard liners holding their noses to keep their seats.
I doubt they could win an election in 2 years, but I think they could claw it back to 2007/2019 'landslide' numbers, not losing the popular vote by 30%+.
Well, she's tuned up at least.
But reading you say it, has made me think… perhaps she already WANTS to resign right now, but they can’t let her, ’till they’ve worked out what happens next? Is she trapped in there for now? I’ll be watching her with that in mind now… is she currently a hostage in a situation of her own making? Is it that lack of quick escape that’s breaking her just as much, if not more, than the realisation that she’s already hit the ground? And hit it hard, full faceplant.
Oh absolutely, If she really want the job now that would mark her out as even more unfit! The problem is what sort of nutter would actually want the her job? They get to be "Leader" of a sack full of Rats and vipers, and will have to immediately call a GE that they will almost certainly lose...
"Here's your poisoned chalice, would you prefer me to kick you in the nuts or Punch your stomach while you try to chug it down?"
Should be good
Strap in!
"I have delivered"
Odds on her not turning up to it?!
She's there.
What a list of achievements
Absolutely skewered.
Who else is worried that she seems to have acquired the One Ring?
